庞大的外汇储备8-ValuationofBonds

27十二月20231庞大的外汇储备8-ValuationofBondsValuationofBonds

Chapter6objectives1.

Distinguishbetweendifferentkindsofbonds.2.

Explainthemorepopularfeaturesofbonds.3.

Definethetermvalueasusedforseveraldifferent purposes.4.

Describethebasicprocessforvaluingassets.5.

Estimatethevalueofabond.6.

Computeabondholder’sexpectedrateofreturn.7.

Explainthreeimportantrelationshipsthatexistinbond valuation.TypesofbondsTerminologyandCharacteristicsofbondsDefinitionsofValueValuation:TheBasicProcessBondValuationTheBondholder’sExpectedRateofReturn(YieldtoMaturity)BondValuation:ThreeImportantRelationshipsWhymarketablebonds?MultiplefinancinginstrumentsMonopolyvsDiversificationMarketorientedvscentrallyplanningorientedbondAbond

isatypeofdebtorlong-termpromissorynote(期票),issuedbytheborrower,promisingtopayitsholderapredeterminedandfixedamountofinterestperyear.1. Debentures:公司债券2. Subordinateddebentures3. Mortgagebonds4. Eurobonds5. Zeroandverylowcouponbonds6 Junkbonds

CHARACTERISTICSOFBONDS

1. Claimsonassetsandincome2. Parvalue3. Couponinterestrate4. Maturity5. Indenture(契约)6. Currentyield7. BondratingsClaimsonassetsandincomeInterestanddividendsleadstoInsolvency:BondsCommonstockPreferredstockParvalueParvalueofabond:afacevaluethatisreturnedtothebondholderatmaturity.Denomination:$1000Quotation:101.375%CouponinterestrateCouponinterestrate: Indicatorofthepercentageoftheparvalueofthebondthatwillbepaidoutannuallyintheformofinterest.Forexample:Interestrate:8%Par:$10008%x$1000=$80.00MaturityLengthtimetoredeemthebonds.Forexample:3years10years30yearsIndenture(契约)

Legalagreement:Betweenissuingcompaniesandbondtrusteewhorepresentsthebondholders.Commonprovisions:ProhibitionsonthesaleofaccountsreceivableConstraintsontheissuanceofcommonstockdividendsRestrictionsonthepurchaseorsaleoffixedassetsConstraintsonadditionalborrowingCurrentyieldCurrentyield=(annualinterestpayment)/(marketpriceofthebond)=(0.08*$1,000)/$700=$80/$700=0.114=11.4%

StandardandPoor’sCorporateBondRatingsAAAAAABBBBB BCCCCCCCURNETBONDSYLDVOLCLOSECHGCaterplnc6s076.84988+ChsCp8s047.91101-ChsCp6086.8889-CPWV7137.83093-Chiquta100410.53100-1ChckFul7s12cv6584-1Chryslr10.4s9910.061104-Chryslr10.95s1710.08109…EconomicInfluencingonbonds1. Interestfluctuation2. Stockpricing3. ExchangeratesInflationdeflationDEFINITIONSOFVALUE1 Bookvalue

2 Liquidationvalue

3 Marketvalue

4 intrinsicoreconomicvalue=fair value

efficientmarket

V=

BONDVALUATIONParvalue(M):$1000Couponinterestrate:12%Maturity:5yearsExpectedreturn:12%(9%/10%/12%/15%)Vb?EXPECTEDRATEOFRETURN(YIELDTOMATURITY)

7%

8%PRESENTVALUEPRESENTPRESENT VALUEPRESEYEARSCASHFLOWFACTORSVALUEFACTorVALUE1-10$90peryear7.024$632.166.710$603.9010$1000inyear100.508508.000.463$463.00Presentvalue$1,140.16Presentvalue$1,066.90

at7%at8%

Parvalue(M):$1000Couponinterestrate:12%Maturity:5yearsExpectedreturn:12%(9%/10%/12%/15%)Vb?12%

Vb=$120(PVIFA12%,5yr)+$l,000(PVIF12%,5yr)Vb=$120(3.605)+$l,000(0.567)=$432.60+$567.00=$999.60≌$1,000,00PVIFAK,n=(1/k)[(1–1/(1+k)n]15%from12perceptto15percent,

Vb=$120(PVIFA15%,5yr)+,000(PVIF15%,5yr)Vb=$120(3.352)+$l,000(0.497)=$402.24+$497.00=$899.24Howcanyoudetermine15%?9%Vb=$120(PVIFA9%,5yr)+$l,000(PⅥF9%,5yr)Vb=$120(3.890)+$l,000(0.650)=$466.80+$650.00 =$1,116.80RELATIONSHIPSWehavenowlearnedtofindthevalueofabond(Vb),(1)

themountofinterestpayment(It),(2)

thematurityvalue(M),(3)

thelengthoftimetomaturity(nyears),and(4)

theinvestor’srequiredrateofreturn,kb.expectedrateofreturn(kb),.requiredrate>couponrate,

marketvalue<parvalue15％>12％,then$899.24<$l,000discountbond.

requiredrate<couponrate,marketvalue>parvalue

9％<12％,then$1,116.18>$1,000premiumbond.12%COUPON-RATE

MARKETVALUEFORA12%COUPON-RATEBONDMATURINGINREOUIREDRATE5YEARS10YEARS9%$1,116.80$1,192.16121,000.001,000.0015899.24849.28

5个融资阶段“繁荣—低谷—高峰—衰退—恢复”的规律。5个融资发展阶段50年代:内部融资时期；60年代:租赁时期，70年代:高峰时期；80年代:倒退；90年代后期:恢复期。内部融资时代世界航运市场:航运业庞大的营业现金流举债:经营无方英国船东:仅有16%找到可以获利的项目来投资。

融资租赁时代日本经济的起步:融资方式的变革。规模经济:中型和大型化银行业:开展了与航运业的合作。过低成本的“方便旗”:船厂造船，租赁给船公司，银行接受船舶抵押。船舶运量达到了9000万吨之多。日本、香港的船东发展到了极致。

高峰时期

造船热潮,大肆造船。贸易增长迅速，只要有了船就有了生意，1973年达到了1.2亿吨（图3）。1973年的石油危机，彻底粉碎了这一造船梦想。最大的崩溃。衰退时期航运界对船队进行了大规模的削减，到1984年，世界上将近四分之一的货轮宣布退休（如图4所示）。银行业的非理性行为，加剧了这场灾难。1983——1987四年间，船东拖欠贷款达100亿美元之多，银行彻底取消整个航运投资，

OBJECTIVE1avarietyoftypesofbonds,including·Debentures·Subordinateddebentures·Mortgagebonds·Eurobonds·Zeroandverylowcouponbonds

·JunkbondsOBJECTIVE2characteristicsthatyoumighthearaboutbondsincludethefollowing:·Claimsonassetsandincome·Parvalue·Couponinterestrate·Maturity·Indenture·Currentyield·Bondratings恢复时代十年中，重新投入两千亿美元。航运业呼唤新的投融资方式。债券成为组成的绝大部分，而另一部分则是权益，第三部分是政府的造船贷款。每年20亿美元增加到20世纪90年代末的每年近100亿美元。航运辛迪加越来越大，却越来越不容易管理。，德国政府担保的银行对造船业贷款超过5000亿美元。

ConvertiblebondsTheoryandpractise可兑换证券可兑换证券是指可以在规定的期限内转换为一定股票数量的证券