2023年亚洲发展展望（九月版）

ASIAN

DEVELOPMENTOUTLOOKSEPTEMBER

2023ASIAN

DEVELOPMENT

BANKASIN

DEVELMETOULOOKSEPEME

2023ASIAN

DEVELOPMENT

BANK Creative

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2023

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Publishe

n

2023.ISBN

978-92-9270-338-7

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(electonic);

978-92-9270-340-0

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ISSN

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1996-725X

(lectronc)Publictn

Sock

No.

FLS230370-3OI:

http://dx.di.og/10.22617/FLS230370-3The

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exressed

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Dvelopnt

Bank

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ht://www.adb.rg/pubcations/corigenda.Nots:In

this

pblicatio,

“$”

efr

to

United

Stats

dllars.D

rcgnizes

“China”

as

the

People’s

Repubc

of

China;

“Krea”

as

the

Rpblic

of

Koe;

nd

“Vietnm”

s

Viet

Nam.er

eign

by

Athony

Victoria.

er

rtwor

by

fraco/2018.CONTENTSForewordAcknowledgments

Definitions

and

Assumptions

Abbreviationsiv

v

vi

viiADO

September

2023—Highlights ixPART

1Solid

Growth

and

Falling

Inflation,

But

Rising

Risks1The

Recovery

in

Services

Is

Supporting

GrowthRegional

Growth

and

Inflation

Continue

Converging

to

Pre-Pandemic

Rates

Risks

to

Regional

Growth

Tilted

to

the

DownsideSpecial

Topic:

Spillovers

from

a

Further

Weakening

of

the

Property

Marketin

the

People’s

Republic

of

ChinaAnnex:

Slower

Growth

in

Advanced

Economies,

But

No

Recession4

18

27

3744PART

2Economic

Trends

and

Prospects

in

Developing

Asia53Caucasus

and

Central

AsiaEast

Asia

South

AsiaSoutheast

Asia

The

Pacific55

68

80103137Statistical

Appendix 151OREWOsia

and

the

Pcific

i

cntinin

is

sold

ecnomic

recoery.Growth

i

hlding

up,

supprte

by

srong

dmtc

emand,

rebonding

tors,

an

stbl

fiancial

cnditions,

even

as

exort

deman

remin

weak.Inflain

i

lwing,

thaks

o

lower

foo

an

energy

pric as

wl

as

tmey

action

by

cenral

bans

across

the

regon.Asian

Development

Outlook

September

2023

forecast

tha

ecnomi i

develoing

Aia

and

the

Pacific

will

xpad4.7

%this

year.However,

the

report

notes

that

the

recovy

s

still

fragile.Thi

year’s

El

Nño

clmate

patrn

nceasesrought

rsks

i

som

ars

of

the

rein

and

flooin

i

others,

which

cul

threaten

agricutrl

pouctio.

long

with

the

posbiity

of

ncred

suppy-chain

diruptios

from

the

Rssian

invasion

of

Ukrine,

as

wl

assticins

on

food

expors,

this

cold

ignt

fod

inflation

and

exacebt

food

nscurit. ntined

weakness

inh

Peope’s

Repubic

of

China’s

propery

ectr

could

slow

rowth

in

sa’s

larges

ecnomy.Polcyaers

cros

hgio

will

need

to

remai

vigian

agaist

finacial

tabilty

rsk

i

this

era

of

hgh

debt

an

hih

ntert

ates.o

frequt

nd

eve

clit

events

are

ye

aother

str

reminer

ht

h

rgio

mus

wok

tgether

tddess

the

threa

that

cliat

chag os

to

lvelihods,

economic

growth,

safty,

and

wel-being.As

part

ofhs,

socil

sfety

net

need

o

be

stregthened

o

rotect

the

mot

ulerble,

an

measues

taen

to

improe

gricultural

prodctviy

nd

fod

scurit.No

sinle

conoy

cn

tacle

these

chllnges

alone.Stroner

rioalcooeation

nd

integratio

is

essetial

to

build

resilence

nd

ensue

long-erm,

sustainabl

growth.I

ho this

eition

of

the

Asian

Development

Outlook

will

rovde

hlpful

nsights

to

sppot

h

egio’s

econmieshy

chat

he

ath

ahead.ASTSUGU

ASKW

Pridtsian

Devopmen

BankCKNOWDGMENTSAsian

Development

Outlook

(ADO)

September

2023

was

prepared

by

taff

of

th

rioal

epartments

and

resdenssions

of

the

Asian

Developent

Bnk

(ADB)

uder

the

guidace

of

the

Ecnomic

Research

and

evopmen

Impact

Deprtmnt

(ERDI).Representatives

of

these

dpartments

met

regularly

as

the

Regionl

Economic

Otlook

Tas

Foce

t

cordinate

and

develop

consitt

frcast

for

the

region.ERDI

econmiss,

led

by

Abul

bad,

drector

of

the

Mcroeconoics

Reseach

Dviio,

coodnated

hroduction

of

this

rort,

assiste

by

Edith

Laviña

ad

Priscile

Vilaneva.Emmanuel

Alano,

Shiel

Camingu-

Romance,

aid

Keth

De

Padua,

Chistian

Regie

Jabagt,

Neely

Magtibay-Ramo,

Elyss

Marel

Mores,

Jeson

Pagdun,

Homr

Pakalinawan,

Piliin

Quiig,

Ana

Francesca

Rosales,

Dvya

Sagrju,

Denis

Soio,

Mchael

Timban,

Mai

Li

Villrue,

nd

Picll

Vilaueva

proid

tchncal

and

rearch

sppot.Economic

editorial

adisors

Rbert

Bouhrey,

Eric

Clifton,

Jshua

Geene,

Richad

Nibuhr,

nd

Reza

Vaez-Zdehde

substantial

conribtions

t

the

country

chapter.The

sppot

nd

guiance

of

AD

Chef

Ecnomit

lbert

Park,

Depuy

hief

Economis

Josph

E.Zveglich

Jr.,

aneput

Drecto

Gena

Cha-Hin

H

are

gratefully

acknowledge.thors

wh

cntrbued

he

ections

ar

bylied

i

each

chatr.The

sbregonl

coordnaos

were

Liia

Aeksanyannd

Rene

Ci

Rivera

fo

the

Caucasus

and

Central

Asi,

Dorothea

Rmizo

fr

East

Asia,

Rana

Hasa

for

South

Asia,Jaes

Vllfuerte

and

Dulce

Zr

for

Sutheas

Asia,

nd r

Tino

ad

Rrick

Patagn

fo

the

Pcifc.In

adiin

to

the

cntrbuors

amed

in

the

blne,

the

spcia

tpic

benefited

from

ipus

from

Yothi

Jinjrak,

Safar

Parez,

Wen

Q,

Akiko

Terada-Hagiwr,

ad

Yjig

Wag

of

the

PRC

esidnt

misson.Pet

Fredenburg

and

Alastar

cInde

edited

ADO

September

2023.Alvin

Tubo

and

Jnathan

Yamongan

id

h

typettin

and

gahics,

assised

by

Heii

Ann

Brvo,

Dyann

Buenazedacruz,

Fermirelyn

Cruz,

Elenta

Pura,

nd

Rhia

Bauita-Piamone.Art

directon

fr

h

coer

was

by

nhny

Vctora,

wth

arwork

from

Josph

Lfranco.

Kevi

Nellies

desge

the

ADO

lading

pge.Fermieln

rz

provded

dminstrative

and

secetaral

supor.A

ea

from

the

Dpartment

of

Commuicaton

an

Kowldge

Mangement,

le

by

Dvid

Kruger

an

Terje

Langelnd,

plannd

and

coointd

the

disemiatio

of

ADO

September

2023.EFINTIN

AND

ASSUTIONSThe

ecoomies

dicussd

in

Asian

Development

Outlook

September

2023

re

clsfed

b

major

anlytic

or

georaphcrou.For

the

purpoes

f

this

reort,

he

fllwing

aply:•

Association

of

Southeast

Asian

Nations

(SAN)

comprises

Bune

Darusaam,

Cmboda,

Indonesa,the

La

Peole’s

Democatic

Repblc,

Mlayia,

Myanma,

th

Phiippines,

Singaore,

Thailand,

ad

Viet

Nam.

ASEAN

4

r

Indnesa,

Malasia,

the

Philipine,

nd

Thailand.•

Developing

Asia

comprise

the

46

members

of

the

Asian

Dvelpment

Bank

lised

bow

by

geogahic

gop.•

Caucasus

and

Central

Asia

cmpries

Amena,

Azerbijan,

Geori,

Kazakhsta,

the

Kyrgz

Repubic,

Tajikista,Turkmenisan,

nd

Uzbistan.•

East

Asia

coprises

Hog

Kong,

Chin;Monolia;the

Peole’s

Republic

of

Chin;the

Reubic

f

Korea;anTipei,hia.•

South

Asia

comrses

Afhnistan,

Bngladh,

Bhta,

India,

Maldives,

Nepl,

Pakisan,

an

Si

Lanka.•

Southeast

Asia

comprises

Buei

Drussalam,

Camboda,

Indnesa,

th

Lao

Peope’s

emcratic

Republic,Malaysi,

Myanr,

the

Philippin,

Sigpore,

Thaian,

Timr-Lese,

and

Vi

Nm.•

The

Pacific

compris

the

Cook

Ilands,

the

Federaed

Stt of

icronsia,

Fji,

Kiribti,

th

Mrshal

Islads,Nuru,

Niue,

Palau,

Papua

Nw

Guin,

Samoa,

Slomo

Isans,

Tog,

Tvau,

and

Vanuau.

Unlss

otherwse

pecfed,

the

sybol

“$”

refers

t

Unted

Sates

ollar.umber

of sumton

hve

been

mad

for

the

projcins

in

Asian

Development

Outlook

September

2023.The

polices

f

natina

auhrtes

ae

aintaine.Real

effectie

exchange

rates

eman

cnstant

at

thei

aveage

fro

3

July

o

31

Augus

2023.Th

averge

pice

of

il

s

$83/barel

in

2023

and

$86/barre

in

2024.The

6

-monh

London

nterban

offere

rate

for

dolar

dpsts

averages

5

.2%in

2023

and

2024,

the

European

Central

Bnk

rfiancin

rate

aerag

4.0

%i

2023

ad

3.9%in

2024,

and

the

Ban

of

Jaan’s

ovrnigh

cll

ate

aveages

0

%i

both

years.All

dta

in

Asian

Development

Outlook

September

2023

wre

accessed

from

3

Jul

to

31

Augst

2023.BBREVITIONSB san

Devopmen

BakADO Asian

Development

OutlookSEN socaion

of

Southt

Asian

Natinsbp basis

pinOVID-19 coronavirs

isePI conumer

pric

indxEU Europn

UnionFDI frgn

diect

invstenFSM Fdated

States

of

MicroneiFY fica

yearGDP ros

dmtc

poductH halfIMF Intentional

Monary

FudIO npt-outputLo

PR Lo

Peopl’s

Docratic

RepubicLNG iqefie

natrl

gasb/d illion

barels

a

daNFRK National

Fund

for

the

Republic

of

KazkhstanOPEC Organization

of

the

Petrleum

Exporig unriesPMI purchasig

anages’

ndexpp pcetae

pontPRC Peopl’s

Rublic

f

ChnaQ quarerROK Rublic

f

KoreaRPC Rioal

Prcesing

Cenre

(Naru)SDR special

rwin

rightUS Uited

StatesVIX Volatliy

Indexyoy year

o

yearAO

EPTMR

2023HIHLIHTSrowth

n

eeloping

Asi

remaind

uba

in

th

frst

af

of

2023

despite

a

weker

gobl

otlok.

lthug

sft

xtenal

demn

weighed

n

xort-rientd

eonoies,th gon

benfied

from

healthyomestc

dmand,the

reopeing

o

he

Pepl’

Reuli

of

Cina

(PRC),rebundig

ursm,ad

stablenancil

nditins.

partculrly

ecourain

dvelopment

s

tat

susiing

iflaion

psurs

lloweome

central

bank

in

th

rgon

to

sart

losenng

montary

poliy,wich

will

elp

bost

growh.This

pdae

vses

sligtly

down

he

regio’

growth

forecat

for

his

yer

t

4.7%

n

lower

expansios

n

East

Asia,South

si,ad

Souheat

Asia.The

gth

forecast

for

2024

is

unchanged

at

4.8%.Wth

ri pressure

in

the

gon

reaiing

i

che,the

nfltio

forecast

s

revised

down

to

3.6%

for2023,

u

is

revised

up

slghly

o

3.5%

for

2024.Iortantly,healie

and

ore

inatin

em

o

hveeaked

in

the

regin,but

here

is

ome

vriation

acss

coomis.Downside

isks

o

the

utook

hav

sreghened.

close

atch

is

needed

on

he

weaknese

in

thPRC’s

proprty

sector.Acrss

e

regio,authoitis

ill

need

to

take

poliy

seps

t

esure

thatupply

dsrupton

and

he

wde-ragig

fect

of

El

Niño

o

ot

aise

od

euriy

halengs.Fnancil

tailty

risks

requre

coninued

viglace

in

vulnrable

coomis

as

th

era

of

easy

moey

ends.lert

F.ParkChief

Economitsian

Deelopment

Bakx Asian

Development

Outlook

September

2023Continud

Gowth

a Morang

Inflation,B

Riss

Are

Risngea Domestic

Dema and

the

Reopening

of

tupprted

Growt h

First

Half

of

2023g’s

Largest

EcyHealh

domtic

dan

coinued

t ive

deeloping ia’s

growth.Rising

consumptiunerpinnd

th

PRC’s

post-eopenin

epanion.Pblc

nvestment

n

Idi

rmais

roust

and

wll

ctiue

t rive

growh

tere.Domesic

demand

is

similly

sron

i he

economesi

he

rgon,as

economc

acivty

contnues

to

ormalize

aftr

te

pandemic.A

slowdown glol

demnd

is

holding

back

exrs

in

ecnomies

across

t regio,partcularly

or

electronics

and

semnductrs.Weak

xenal

emand

dpresed

idustril

prduction

in

te

reon’s

high-income

enoly-xortin

economes

i

he

first

half

of

2023.

e

reon’s

ept

slowed

on

slmping

deand

fr

electronics

adgarens,alhog

th

downurn

in

the

seionductor

cyle

h

flatteed.The

mnufacturng

prchasig

anages’

inex

remaind

blow

50—he

ndx

hrshol

indicatin

imprvemet—

for

oe

eoomies.Tourism ntnues

to

recover,and

money

tasfers

to

devopin

Asia

rem steady.Visitor

arrivals

are

reain repandeic

levels

in

many

econmis.In

te

Pcifc,the

tourismrevival

has

eve

led

t

labr

shortas

n

the

ecto,ptly

du

to

incrased

utward

migraion

of

skilld

workers

duig

th

pandeic.

eitance

an

money

trnsfes

o

the

rgiremain

stale,but

mney

tansfers

t

he

Ccasus

and

ental

Aia

have

strted

to

decline

somwh

afe

risng

shaply

last

ye.Centrl

banks

i

te

rgion,after

raising

policy

rates

las

year,hav

mostly

ed

aes

ts

year

as

infltonar

presures

ween.Wanng

suply

sie

pessures,as

well

as

thetaperig

of

hikes

n

the

Untd

Sttes

(U)

o

lowing

ifltion

ther,hve

ven

some

centrl

bks

he

sace

to

cut

olicy

rates

tis

year.Inflaton

is

lowing

at

iffernt

rates

across

the

region d

is

now

withn

the

target

rnge

fo

some

conoies,sggestin

that

hikng

anesng

cycles

will

vary

going

forward.Financil

maket

condiios

have

imprv after

a

rough

sart

t

2023.In

the

firs

quarter,bkin

turmoil

an

contined

at

hikes

aid

pesistent

inflaion

i

h

US

and

ur reapt

fnacial

market

on

dge.Bt

fnacial

condtion

globally

an

in

evelopng

Aia

have

iprved

sinc

ten,spprted

by

easin

inflation

n

the

rgi,an

expectatins

of

les

aggrsve

metary

plicy

itenig

by

th

Feerl

Reserve.Equiy

makt

in

te

region

have

stregthned,risk

premiums

narowed,and

portflio

inflows

rise

on

iprved

makt

sentimet.

eonl

currencies

have

arginally

deprciae

so

far

thi

yea.Tis

update

makes

a

sma wwad

evsion

o

te

rgion’s

gowth

frecst

fr

2023,no

at

4.7

%

.I

East

Asa,the

RC’s

forecast

s

marnally

rvied

down

t

4.9%

in

2023,

reflctng

softening

mometm

i

domstc

deman,headwnds

from

weakr

global

dmad,and

te

poperty

sector

corrcton.

owth

forecasts

fo

the

Rpublc

of

Korea

and

Tapei,

hin e

also

revsed

ownwd.A

mall

dowward

revison

is

ad

for

Soth

Asafo

2023,to

5.4%

from

5.5%.South

Asia

will

stll

be

th

fastst

grwin

ureon,le

by

IdiaHighlights  xian

drven

y

tron

investmet

ad

consuptio.Growth

i

Southe Asi

s

revsed

lighlydwn

t

4.6%

n

2023

and

4.8%

in

2024

ue

o

weker

glbal

deand

for

the

suregion’

mufaurd

exports.The

owth

forcast

fr

the

Caucaus

ad

Cenral

Asi

s

revsed

p

to

4.6%

for

2023

ad

4.7%

for

2024

s

he

factrs

that

pushe

up

grwth

n

the

Causs

ls

yar

av

not

faded

as

quckly

as

expctd.

rwt

in

the

acific

is

evisd

u

to

3.5%fo

ths

year

and

2.9%

for

ext

o

th

continin

ecovery

in

toursm

an

infrastructur

ivsten.This

upate

retains

te

4.8%

reonal

growh

fecast

for

2024.Inflton

in

devopin

Asia

is

forecast

t

decline

from

4.4%

at

yr

to

3.6%

in

2023and

3.5% 2024.Much

f

hs

year’s

decline

wll

be

drven

by

the

RC,where

h

inflainfoecast

s

revsed

own

o

0.7%.Eclding

te

PR,

verage

inflation

n

the

rgio

will

also

be

lwer,fallig

from

6.7%

last

yea

to

6.3%

this

yea

and

4.9%

nxt

year.Pri prsres,however,remain

strng

and

re

inflaton

is

igh

n

the

Caus d

Cenrl

Asi

nd

in

South

Asi,m notably

in

Pakistn.Risks

o

t outloo

hav

intensified.Te

PR’s

ropery

markt

oses

a

downside

riskan

coul

hold

bak

rgioal

grwt.High

iteret

rates

are

keepng

finanial

sablity

isks

elevae,whether

from

vulerl

sveregns

or

a

otntial

reewal

in

anking

trmil.

Despt

te

fall

in

gloal

fod

pies

from

heir

2022

pek,food

serity

will

contine

to

be

challnged

by

te

effes

of

El

Niño,spoadic

food

suply

isrptios

from

he

ussian

ivasion

f

Ukain,and

retricton

on

food

exports

y

oe

ecnome.Other

challens

iclude

geopolii

and

te

fracturig

of

gloal

prodction,whih

could

affct

rae,

eployent,

d

poduivity.Inflaton

dyamics

nd

the

stance

f

onetay

policy

i

advnced

conoies

will

also

sape

th

gloal

otlook

over

he

foreas

hoizon.xii Asian

Development

Outlook

September

2023pillovers

from

a

Furter

Weakning he

Property

Marke

in

the

PRCTe

Special

Topic

analyzes

the

rk

of

a

further

detioration the

PR proprtymk.Th

proerty

sector

aconts

fr

an

esimated

21%–24%

of

the

ontry’s

GD.As

such,furhr

weakness

in

he

property

makt

old

av

signficant

cnsequens

in

the

PRC

ad

elsewer.The

Asian

Devlpment

Bak’s

Multireonal

Input-Oupt

Tls

re

used

t ssess

the

potential

impact

of

further

declins

in

ral

stae

investmet

in

te

PRC

adthe

effect

of

this

o

th

domestc

ecoomy,other

ecoomies

in

h

region,ad

the

rst

of

the

world.The

alysi

evlues

how

differen

pliy

rspons

ay

ttenat

te

effes

of

te

PRC’s

property

makt

ownurn.It

shld

e

empasized

ha

te

Spcil

Topic

is

not

about

the

baselne

forecasts

i

Asia

Development

Oulook

eptember

2023.This

s

bese

te

year

is

nearly

ver

an

the

varous

plie

that

the

authorities

ave

already

put

in

place

to

tckle

the

curret

weakness

in

he

proerty

makt

re

sufficent

to

rea th

forcast

fr

4.9%

growhi

the

PR

thi

year.Rater,tis

analyss

aims

o

shed

light

on

te

rsks

n

2024

and

beyon

comng

fom

the

proprty

ct.Te

rult

indicate

that

additional

policy

upport

could

soten

r

even

re

he

impat

on

groth

from

a ther

deterioration

in

he

proty

market.

e

anlysisstrts

by

asumin

a

yotetical

fall

i

real

estat

investmnt.Ths

also

geertes eclini

prvate

consuptio

and

privte

nvetment

ue

o

welth

and nfidece

effects.Scenario

simlains

are

then

used

o

investgate

the

rle

layed

y

olcy

respnses.Uner

a

mdeat

policy

suport

scenai,growth

i

th

PR

falls

slghtly

relative

o

the

baselin

foecast.The

mact

wuld

be

broadbaed,affecig

not

just

cnstuction

ut

also

otheidutrial

sectos

nd

sevis.Under

a

stonger

poliy

rspone

senario,

DP

growth

actually

rses

slightly

relative

o

the

baslne.Imprtantly,the

size

f

policy

itervetions

consideedi

both

scenris

s

jut

a

frain

of

te

stmlu

enacted

by

the

vernen

durig

th

2008–2009

gloal

finncil

crsis

and

durin

the

OVID-19

pandmic,and

well

within

the

PRC’s

currnt

policy

space.Te

ipact

o

other

cnoies

i

develong

Asa

is

imied.Spillover

fom

a

frthe

wekenig

in

the

ropery

markt

in

the

PRC

wld

hav

moest

lobl

an

regional

conequences.Tis

i

bcause

ost

inpts

i

the

prpety

seor’

supply

chin

e

destically

souced.But

tradng

ptners

itly

linkd

to

te

PRC

wold

face

signficant

headwnds—aricully

Mongolia

thrugh

is

minig

sctr.Athrities

in

ll

conoies

should

be

on

gurd

aganst

otenil

spillovrs

workng

throgh

other

channel,

ncludng

heigheed

nternatioal

investr

rsk

versi.Highlights  xiiiGDP

rowt

Rte,%

per

yea2022 2023 2024Ari Stember Apil SepemerDevelpng

Asia 4.3 4.8 4.7 4.8 4.8Develpng

Asia

excldn

he

PRC 5.5 4.6 4.5 5.1 5.0Cauass

an

Cetra

Asia 5.1 4.4 4.6 4.6 4.7Amenia 12.6 6.5 7.0 5.5 5.5Azeban 4.6 3.5 2.2 3.8 2.6Georia 10.1 4.5 6.0 5.0 5.0Kakhtn 3.2 3.7 4.1 4.1 4.3Kyrgyz

epublic 6.3 4.5 3.8 4.0 4.0Tajiistan 8.0 5.5 6.5 6.5 7.0Tukmenistan 6.2 6.5 6.2 6.0 6.0Uzbekisan 5.7 5.0 5.5 5.0 5.5East

Aia 2.8 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.2Hng

ong,

China –3.5 3.6 4.3 3.7 3.3Mogolia 5.0 5.4 5.7 6.1 5.9Peopl’

Repulic

f

Chin 3.0 5.0 4.9 4.5 4.5Repulic

of

Koe 2.6 1.5 1.3 2.2 2.2Taipei,Chin 2.4 2.0 1.2 2.6 2.7South

Asia 6.7 5.5 5.4 6.1 6.0Afhaistan ... ... ... ... ...Bangladeh 7.1 5.3 6.0 6.5 6.5Bhutan 4.7 4.6 4.3 4.2 4.4Ind 7.2 6.4 6.3 6.7 6.7Maldive 13.9 7.1 7.1 6.9 6.9Nepal 5.6 4.1 1.9 5.0 4.3Pkistan 6.1 0.6 0.3 2.0 1.9Sr

Laka –7.8 –3.0 –3.0 1.3 1.3Southet i 5.6 4.7 4.6 5.0 4.8Brunei

Dausalm -1.6 2.5 2.8 2.8 2.5Cambodia 5.2 5.5 5.3 6.0 6.0Indnesia 5.3 4.8 5.0 5.0 5.0Lo

Pople’s

Democratic

Rpublic 2.5 4.0 3.7 4.0 4.0Malysia 8.7 4.7 4.5 4.9 4.9Myamar 2.0 2.8 2.8 3.2 3.2Pilippins 7.6 6.0 5.7 6.2 6.2Singpoe 3.6 2.0 1.0 3.0 2.5Tailad 2.6 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.7Tr-Leste 3.2 3.1 2.8 3.0 2.9Vie

Nam 8.0 6.5 5.8 6.8 6.0The

Pcific 6.1 3.3 3.5 2.8 2.9Cook

Islnd 10.5 11.2 14.5 9.1 9.1Fedeated

Sttes

f

Miconesia 2.0 4.1 4.1 0.5 0.5Fiji 20.0 6.3 8.3 3.0 3.7Kiribati 1.8 2.3 2.3 2.8 2.8Mashll

Islnd –0.9 1.5 2.2 2.0 2.5Nuru 2.8 1.8 1.6 2.2 1.6Nue ... ... ... ... ...Plau –1.0 3.8 3.8 6.5 6.5Ppu

New

Guinea 3.2 2.4 2.0 2.6 2.6Saoa –5.3 4.8 6.0 2.5 4.2Solomon

Ilands –4.2 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.5Toga –2.2 2.5 2.8 3.2 2.6Tuvalu 0.7 2.5 3.0 2.0 2.5Vanuatu 2.0 1.0 1.0 4.2 4.2...=

not

avilable,

DB

=

Aan

Dvelopnt

Bak,

GDP

=

gro

doestic

product,

PRC=

Pople’s

Republic

of

China.Note:The

current

uncertn

tuatin

peits

no

emates

or

forecasts

fo

Afghanst over

2022–2024.

DB

placed

o

hld

its

regular

assitance

toAfhanistn

effectiv

15

Augu

2021.Effecive

1

Fbuar

2021,

ADB

placed

temporary

old

o

sovereign

project

diursements

and

nw

contractsin

Mymar.Surc:Asian

Development

Outlook

databse.xiv Asian

Development

Outlook

September

2023Inflain,%

pr

yea202220232024Ari Stember Apil SepemerDevelpng

Asia 4.4 4.2 3.6 3.3 3.5Develpng

Asia

excldn

the

PRC 6.7 6.2 6.3 4.4 4.9Cauass

an

Cetra

Asia 12.9 10.3 10.6 7.5 8.0Amenia 8.6 7.0 4.0 6.2 5.5Azeban 13.9 7.0 10.0 6.5 8.5Georia 11.9 6.0 3.0 4.0 3.5Kakhtn 15.0 11.8 12.7 6.4 7.6Kyryz

epublic 13.9 12.0 12.0 8.6 8.6Tajistan 4.2 7.0 5.5 6.5 6.0Tukmenistan 10.0 10.0 8.0 10.0 8.0Uzbekisan 11.4 11.0 11.0 10.0 10.0Eat