彭博-在新兴市场调动资本-Mobilizing Capital in and to Emerging Markets 2023

Mobilizing

CapitalinandtoEmergingMarkets

Commissionedby

December1,2023

BloombergNEF

MobilizingCapitalinandtoEmergingMarketsDecember1,2023

Contents

Section1.Executivesummary2

Section2.Stateofenergytransitioninvestment7

2.1.Energysupplycapitalinvestment8

2.2.Energysupplybank-facilitatedfinancing18

Section3.Countryprogressandinvestmentshowcase21

3.1.Argentina22

3.2.Brazil26

3.3.Egypt30

3.4.India33

3.5.SouthAfrica37

3.6.Vietnam41

Section4.Acceleratingandexecutingthetransition45

4.1.Externalfactors47

4.2.Intrinsicfactors47

4.3.Economicpolicies49

Section5.Transformationalinitiatives53

5.1.Multilateraldevelopmentbanks53

5.2.Countryplatforms54

5.3.Managedphaseoutofcoal55

5.4.Voluntarycarbonmarkets57

AppendixA.Understandingthecostofcapital60

AppendixB.Howthisresearchrelatestocommonlyreferencedframeworks65

Aboutus70

Tableoffigures

Figure1:Low-carbonenergysupplyinvestments,bycountrygroup4

Figure2:Shareoflow-carbonenergysupplyinvestments,bycountrygroup4

Figure3:EMDEenergysupplycapitalinvestmentandbank-facilitatedfinancing

7

Figure4:EnergysupplycapitalinvestmentinEMDEs

8

Figure5:Globalenergysupplycapitalinvestment

9

Figure6:Energysupplycapitalinvestmentbycountrygroup

10

Figure7:FossilfuelsupplycapitalinvestmentinEMDEs

11

Figure8:Changeinfossilfuelsupplycapitalinvestment,2021-22

11

Figure9:Low-carbonenergysupplyinvestments,bycountrygroup

11

Figure10:Shareoflow-carbonenergysupplyinvestments,bycountrygroup11

Figure11:EMDElow-carbonenergysupplyinvestments,bysector

12

Figure12:EMDErenewableenergyinvestments,bysub-sector

12

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Figure13:EMDErenewableenergyinvestment,bycountry

13

Figure14:EMDErenewableenergyinvestment,byWorldBankincomegroup

13

Figure15:EMDErenewableenergyinvestments,2021-22change

13

Figure16:ShareofnetcapacityadditionsinEMDEs

14

Figure17:CapacityadditionsinEMDEs

14

Figure18:Mostpopularnewpower-generatingtechnologyinstalled,202215

Figure19:Globalutility-scalerenewableenergyforeigndirectinvestment,by

recipientgroup

16

Figure20:Utility-scalerenewableenergyforeigndirectinvestmenttoEMDEs,

byownership

16

Figure21:Utility-scalerenewableenergyforeigndirectinvestmenttoEMDEs,

bytypeofinvestor

16

Figure22:Utility-scalerenewableenergyforeigndirectinvestmenttoEMDEs

frommulti-nationaldevelopmentbanks,byincomegroup

17

Figure23:RenewableenergyinvestmentintoEMDEsbytypeofinvestor17

Figure24:EMDErenewableenergyinvestment,bytypeofinvestor

17

Figure25:Renewableenergyinvestmenttotop10EMDEsfordomestic

investmentbytypeofinvestor,2018-2022

18

Figure26:Energysupplybankfinancing,byinstrumenttype,2021-22

19

Figure27:Lowcarbonsupplyfundsraised,byEMDEcountries2021and2022

20

Figure28:EMDEcorporatedebtandequityfundraisingin2022,bycurrency.20

Figure29:Energytransitionstages

21

Figure30:Argentinarenewableenergyinvestments,bysub-sector

23

Figure31:Argentina’sRenovArauctionsbycapacitiesandprices

23

Figure32:Argentinarenewableenergyprojectcostofdebtbuild-upillustration

26

Figure33:Brazilrenewableenergyinvestments,bysub-sector

27

Figure34:Brazil'stransmissioninvestmentviareverseauctions,2012-2022..27

Figure35:Brazilleadinvestmentproviders,2012-2022

28

Figure36:Brazilleadinvestmentproviders,2022

28

Figure37:Brazilrenewableenergyprojectcostofdebtbuild-upillustration29

Figure38:Brazilrenewablescapacity,2022vs.2030BNEFforecast30

Figure39:Egyptgreenhouse-gasemissionsbasedonsectoralNDCtargets.30

Figure40:Egyptrenewableenergyinvestments,bysubsector

31

Figure41:Egyptrenewableenergyinvestment,bytypeofinvestor

31

Figure42:Egyptleadinvestmentproviders,2012-2022

32

Figure43:Egyptrenewableenergycumulativecapacity

32

Figure44:Egyptrenewableenergyprojectcostofdebtbuild-upillustration33

Figure45:RenewableenergyauctionvolumesinIndia

34

Figure46:Indiarenewableenergyinvestments,bysubsector

35

Figure47:Indiarenewableenergyinvestment,bytypeofinvestor

35

Figure48:Indiacentralbankreporate

35

Figure49:Year-on-yearchangeofIndia’sconsumerprices

35

Figure50:Indiarenewableenergyprojectcostofdebtbuild-upillustration36

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Tableoftables

MobilizingCapitalinandtoEmergingMarketsDecember1,2023

Figure51:Indiarenewablescapacity,2022vs.2030BNEFforecastandNet

Zeroscenario

37

Figure52:SouthAfricarenewableenergyinvestments,bysub-sector

38

Figure53:SouthAfricaannualgrossgenerationbytechnology

39

Figure54:SouthAfricarenewableenergyprojectcostofdebtbuild-up

illustration

40

Figure55:Loadsheddinginstancesbystageandasaproportionofnet

generation,SouthAfrica

41

Figure56:ExportsofsolarproductsfromChinatoSouthAfrica

41

Figure57:Vietnam’srenewableenergycapacityadditions

42

Figure58:Vietnamrenewableenergyinvestments,bysub-sector

42

Figure59:BNEF'sVietnamsolarcapacityforecast

43

Figure60:Vietnamrenewableenergyprojectcostofdebtbuild-upillustration43Figure61:ShareofEMDEswherekeyrenewablepowerpoliciesarepresent52

Figure62:ShareofEMDEsbyincome-levelgroupwithaspecificnumberof

policymechanisminforce

52

Figure63:JETP-CIPPfocusareainvestmentrequirements

54

Figure64:Installedcapacityforunabatedcoalpowergenerationin2023and

2030acrosscommonlyreferencedscenarios

55

Figure65:Carbonoffsetissuance,bysector

57

Figure66:Carbonoffsetretirements,bysector

57

Figure67:Topissuingcountriesofenergyoffsets

58

Figure68:Topcoalpowerproducingcountries,2021

58

Figure69:Illustrationofoffsetsinmanagedphaseout

58

Figure70:Levelizedcostofelectricityforecast,Indonesia

58

Figure71:Theinvestableuniverse

61

Figure72:5-yearreturnvs5-yearvolatilityofcleanenergyandfossilfuel

equitiesbyincomegroup,2018-23

63

Figure73:5-yearreturnvs5-yearvolatilityofcleanenergyandfossilfuel

equitiesbytype,2018-23

64

Table1:ArgentinaRenovarrenewableenergyauctionriskmitigationstrategy23

Table2:Factorsaffectingtheenablingenvironment

46

Table3:Costofdebtstackforcleanenergyprojectsbycountry,%

62

Table4:SummaryofselectedreportsonEMDEcapitalmobilization

65

Table5:Countrygroups

66

Table6:Sectoralgroupings

66

Table7:Instrumentsanddatasources

68

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ForewordfromtheCo-Leadsofthe

GFANZWorkstreamonMobilizingCapitaltoEmergingMarkets&DevelopingEconomies

TheGFANZWorkstreamonMobilizingCapitaltoEmergingMarketsandDeveloping

Economies(EMDEs)workstoidentifypracticalactionstoacce

leratecapitalallocationin

supportofthenet-zerotransitioninthesecriticalcountries.Thisincludessupportingcountryplatforms;strengtheningtiesbetweenpublicagencies,internationalfinancialinstitutions,andprivatefinancetosupportpartnershipsandcapitalmobilizationefforts;aidingthe

developmentofhigh-integritycarbonmarkets;andadvancingglobalcapacitybuildingeffortsforEMDEfinancialinstitutions.YoucanreadmoreaboutourworkintheGFANZ2023

ProgressReport.

GFANZcommissionedthisBloombergNEFreport–anupdatetotheinaugural2022

reportMobilizingCapitalintoEmergingMarketsandDevelopingEconomies–toadvance

understandingofthekeytrendsandissuesdrivingcleanenergyandfossilfuelinvestment

andcapitalmarketactivity,asEMDEslooktotransitiontheirenergysourcestolow-carbon.

Thisreportsetsthoseoutindetailandhighlightsmicroandmacroenablingenvironment

factorsthatcanacceleratethepaceofprogress,includingthroughanalysisofsixcountry

casestudies.Theinsightsfromthisreporthighlightthecomplexityofthechallengeaswellastheopportunityandimpactassociatedwithsuccessfullycreatinganenablingenvironmentforclimateinvestment.

Positively,inthepastyear,threequartersofnewpowergenerationaddedinEMDEcountrieswaslow-carbon,deliveringanall-timehighlevelofinvestment.Despitesuch

examplesofsuccess,however,weremainsignificantlyoff-trackindeliveringtheinvestmentneededtosupportEMDEsintheirtransitiontonetzero,withinvestmentlevelsneedingtoincreasefive-foldbetweennowand2026-2030.

WeextendourgratitudetoBloombergNEFfortheiranalysisandhopethisreportwillproveusefultoawiderangeofaudiencestoadvancethenecessarydialogue,ambitionandactiontoscaleclimatefinanceforthetransitionofEMDEs.

Andwearedeeplythankfultothe35financialinstitutionsandcivilsociety

organizationsacross16countriesthatarededicatedtosupportingGFANZ’sworkonEMDECapitalMobilization.

ShemaraWikramanayake

ChiefExecutiveOfficer,

MacquarieGroup

BillWinters

GroupChiefExecutive,

StandardChartered

BloombergNEF

MobilizingCapitalinandtoEmergingMarketsDecember1,2023

Section1.

Executivesummary

In2022,some75%ofnewpowergenerationcapacityaddedinemerging

marketsanddevelopingeconomies(EMDEs),excludingChina1,waslow-

carbon.Energytransitioninvestmentinthesemarketsreachedanewrecordof$85billion,up10%from2021.However,low-carboninvestmentinandto

EMDEscontinuestofallsignificantlyshortofwhatisrequiredtomeetnet-zeroemissionsgoalsby2050.Investmentsinfossilfuelenergysupply2stilleclipsethoseincleanenergyandtheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)estimatesthatannualinvestmentinlow-carbonenergysupplymustgrowmorethanfive-foldfrom2022to2030.Thedisparityincleanenergyinvestmentbetweenemergingeconomiesandrichernationspersists,withEMDEscomprisinglessthan15%ofglobalinvestment.

However,therearepositivedevelopments,primarilyinmarketswithrobust

enablingenvironments.Brazilstandsoutthisyearandformostofthelast

decade.Withaneffectiveandstablecleanenergypolicyframeworkandstrong,supportiveandindependentpublicinstitutions,thecountryrepresentedover

one-thirdofEMDErenewableenergyinvestmentin2022,contributing

significantlytotheEMDEs’totalnewrecord.IndiaandSouthAfricafollowBrazilasthetopthreemaininvestmentdestinationsin2022.Mostothereconomies,however,continuetoattractinsufficientlow-carbonenergyinvestment.

Thelessonslearnedfromcountriesacrossallincomegroupsthathavebeen

trailblazingtheenergytransitionhighlightthatmeaningful,stableprogress

requiresstrongcollaborationbetweenkeystakeholders.Governments,nationalpublicfinanceinstitutions,theprivatesector,andMultilateralDevelopment

Banks(MDBs)needtoworktogethertocreatefavorableinvestment

environments,mitigaterisks,enhanceliquidityanddeploycatalyticinvestmenteffectively.DomesticEMDEfinancialinstitutionshavebeennotablyeffectiveatsupportingthetransitioninthelastfiveyears,andtheirinvestmenthasprovenrelativelyresilienttoexternalshockslikeCovid-19andrisinginterestrates.

Thereisaclearneedandopportunitytodevelopandharnesslocalcapital

markets.Thatsaid,toreachthescaleoffinancerequiredfortransition,whichwillrequiremanyEMDEstomorethantripletheirrenewablecapacitytoreachtheglobal11terawattsofglobalcapacityneededby2030,internationalprivate

1Throughoutthereport,emergingmarketsanddevelopingeconomies(EMDEs)referstoEMDEsexcludingChina.

2Fossilfuelenergysupplycapitalinvestmentincludestheupstream,midstreamanddownstreamvaluechainsofoil,naturalgasandcoalproductionandprocessing,aswellasunabatedfossil-basedelectricitysupply.

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MobilizingCapitalinandtoEmergingMarketsDecember1,2023

capitalmustalsobemobilizedatmuchgreaterrates.Developmentfinance

institutions,bilateraldonorsandMDBsmustallaccelerateeffortstomobilizeinternationalprivatefinance,particularlythroughrapidlyscalingtheavailabilityandaccessibilityofcatalyticinstrumentslikeguarantees.

Thisreportprovidesanoverviewofthecurrentstateoftheenergytransition

anditsfinancinginEMDEsanddiscusseshowtoexecuteandaccelerateit.Sixcountrycasestudies–Argentina,Brazil,Egypt,India,SouthAfricaandVietnam–areusedtoexplorehowdifferentstakeholderscaninfluencemacroand

microeconomicfactorsthataffectinvestmentinEMDEs.Finally,itdiscusses

fourtransformativeinitiativesordevelopmentsthatcouldsignificantlyacceleratethetransitioninEMDEs:theemergenceofcountryplatformsasacoordinatingmechanism,ongoingeffortstostrengthenandevolveMDBs,thescalingof

high-integrityvoluntarycarbonmarkets,andthedevelopmentofcoalphase-outstrategies.

Thereport’skeyfindings:

•Low-carbonenergysupplyinvestmentinEMDEsremainsinsufficienttoreach1.5C

scenarios.TheIEA’sNetZeroEmissionsby2050scenario(NZE)estimatesthatanearly

fivefoldincreaseinlow-carboninvestmentisneededby2030,comparedto2022levels,whileinvestmentinfossilfuelneedstohalve.

•Althoughlow-carbonenergysupplyinvestmentinEMDEsreachedarecordhighin2022,itstillonlyrepresents14%oftheglobaltotal,thelowestsharesince2016.

Investmentroseby11%from2021,reaching$85billion,withathirdofitdirectedtosmall-scalesolar.Investmentremainsconcentratedinafewmarkets,primarilyinupper-middle

incomecountries.Thetop10marketsbyinvestmentvolumecombinedaccountforover80%oftotalinvestment,andBrazilandIndiatogetherrepresentmorethanhalfofthetotal.

•Renewableenergyrepresentedthree-quartersofthenewpower-generatingcapacityaddedinEMDEsin2022,whilefossilfuel’ssharefelltoanewlow.EMDEsinstalled94gigawattsofnewcapacity,withrenewables(includinghydro)representing74%ofthis.Theshareoffossilfuelsintotalcapacityaddeddroppedto26%,downfrom48%in2021.

•WhilerenewablesadditionsandinvestmentremainconcentratedinlargerEMDEs,

technologieslikephotovoltaics(PV)arerapidlyexpandingtomoremarkets.In2022,PVwastheprimarytechnologyinstalledin46%oftheEMDEs,upfromjust8%in2012.ThisisbecausePVmodulescostlessthanathirdofwhattheycostin2012,andasixteenthof

whattheycostin2008.

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700

600

595

490

77

372

344

318

205

121

128

61

174

123

314

44

118

151

256

32

86

138

59

148

138

239

33

54

152

64

103

151

198209206

405

78

319

52

209

25

303

139

129

85

77

500

400

300

200

100

0

35%

14%

MobilizingCapitalinandtoEmergingMarketsDecember1,2023

Figure1:Low-carbonenergysupplyinvestments,bycountrygroup

$billion

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2012

China

EMDE

NonEMDE

Figure2:Shareoflow-carbonenergysupplyinvestments,bycountrygroup

80%

64%

60%

51%

40%

23%

14%

20%

0%

201220142016201820202022

NonEMDEChinaEMDE

Source:BloombergNEF.Note:Low-carbonenergysupplyincludesrenewableenergy,nuclear,energystorage,hydrogenandCCS.Excludestransmissionanddistribution(T&D)andlargehydro.Totalvolumesexcludesmall-scalesolarinvestmentbuffers.

•Theresultsofmeasurestakeninthecountriesstudiedinthisreporthighlighttheneedforunprecedentedcollaborationamongdomesticandinternationalstakeholdersto

achievenet-zerogoalswithinthetimeframeenvisionedbytheParisAgreement,withanemphasisonbothstrengtheningtheenablingenvironmentandensuringpubliccapitalisusedcatalyticallytoleverageprivateinvestment.

•Argentina’sexperiencedemonstrateshowamixofwell-designedpolicyframeworksandfinancialriskmitigationmechanismscanspurrenewableenergydevelopmentinachallengingmacroeconomiccontext.Acombinationofauctionsandguaranteesmanagedtocreatebankableprojectsdespiteavolatileeconomicenvironment.Thisrequiredan

innovativemechanismbasedonacollaborativeapproachbetweenthemarketoperator,thenationalgovernmentandtheWorldBank.

•Brazil’ssuccessillustratestheresiliencethatacompleteandstablepolicyframework,supportedbystrongindependentpublicinstitutions,canbringtothetransitionofa

country.BrazilhasoneofthemostinvitingrenewableenergyenablingenvironmentsamongEMDEs,whichhelpeddriveover$93billionininvestmentinthecountryover2012-2022.TheBrazilianNationalDevelopmentBank(BNDES)waspivotaltothedevelopmentofthesectorandensuringlowcostofdebtforcleanenergyprojects,whilethecountry’sindependent

CentralBankhasbeenkeytomaintainingmacroeconomicstability.

•Egypt’sstoryshowstheimpactofMDBtechnicalandfinancialsupportonrenewable

energyinvestmentflows.OneofthemaindriversofinvestmentinenergytransitioninthecountrywasthecollaborationoftheEgyptiangovernmentwithMDBs.TheInternational

FinanceCorporation(IFC)andtheEuropeanBankforReconstructionandDevelopment

(EBRD)helpedthegovernmentdesignasetofpowerpurchaseagreementsandother

incentivesofferedtodevelopersthroughacompetitivemechanism.Inparallel,theMultilateralInvestmentGuaranteeAgencyoftheWorldBank(MIGA)providedguaranteesforprojects

undertheprogram.Thishelpeddrive$3.3billionin2017,upfromnearlynothingin2015.

•India’svibrantcleanenergysectorhighlightshowhighambitioncanbematchedtoacomprehensivesetofpolicytoolsdesignedtoaddresschallengesandmobilize

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MobilizingCapitalinandtoEmergingMarketsDecember1,2023

domesticinvestorsinsupportofthetransition.Thecountryhasimplementedavarietyofmechanismstoboostconfidenceamonglocalfinancialinstitutions,leadingtoasignificant

growthinlocalinvestment.Domesticinvestmentinlow-carbonenergywasfourtimeshigherthanforeigninvestmentin2022.Thecountryhasbeenarolemodelinholdingrenewable

auctionswithhighvolumesandaregularschedule,withanaverageof15GWofrenewablescapacityauctionedineachofthelastfivefiscalyears.

•SouthAfrica’schallengesillustratetheimportanceofpolicystability,theneedfor

multi-stakeholdercollaboration,andtherolerenewablescanplayinimprovingenergysecurity.Despitebeingamaturerenewablesmarketintermsofprocurementexperienceandfinancingcapacity,SouthAfricafacesmajorenergytransitionstumblingblocksinitspolicy

instability,regulatorytightnessandpoliticalrisk.Whenexecutedproperly,itscleanpowerincentives,suchasauctions,havedrivensubstantialinvestmentandbuild,butretroactivechangesandcancellationshavedamagedinvestorconfidence.However,recentchangesinregulationhaveunlockedthepotentialofdistributedPVinaddressingpowershortages.

•Vietnam’sambitiouscleanenergypoliciesshowhowquicklyavibrantmarketfor

renewablescanmaterializeundertherightconditions,butalsohowquicklyitcanbesaturatedintheabsenceofamoreholisticenergytransitionplan.Generousfeed-in

tariffstriggeredasolarandwindboom,driving$44billionininvestmentinjustfouryears.

However,unsustainabletarifflevels,lackofclarityandinfrastructurebottlenecksledtoa

steepdeclineininvestmentflows,emphasizingtheimportanceofsustainedandclearpolicydirection.

•Theabovecasestudiesprovideclearexamplesofhoweachstakeholdergroupacrossthepublicandprivatesectorhasacriticalroleindrivingprogress.Crucially,each

stakeholder’sactionismoreeffectivewhenworkingincollaborationacrossthepublicand

privatesectortocreatevibrantrenewablesmarkets,scaleupcleantechnologiesoreffectivelymanagethephase-outoffossilfuelassets.

-Governmentsareresponsiblefortranslatingtheirclimatetargetsintoasetofpoliciesandregulationsthat,alongwithmacroeconomicandpoliticalstability,createanenabling

environmentthatisconducivetoinvestment,providingstabilitytoinvestorsandcarefullydeployinglimitedbudgetresourceswheretheyaremostneeded.

-MDBsmustactasenablers,providingbothtechnicalandfinancialsupporttohost

countries,private-sectorcompaniesandfinancialinstitutions,andprojectdevelopers.

MDBshaveauniqueroleintheinterfacebetweengovernmentsandtheprivatesector,identifyingopportunitieswhereacountrycanspurinvestmentmostefficientlyby

mobilizingprivatefinance,andwheremoreenablinginvestmentusingpublicresourcesisneeded.

-Wheretheenablingconditionsareinplace,theprivatesectorneedstoplayitsroleasacreator,financierandoperatoroftheassetsthatareneededtodecarbonizeeconomies.

•Theselessonsareparticularlyimportantasleadersbuildmomentumtotripleglobalinstalledrenewableenergycapacityby2030,froma2022baseline.Thisgoalequatesto11terawattsofrenewablescapacityby2030,butcontributionswilldifferaroundtheworld.Whileforearlieradoptersofrenewables,triplingistherightgoal,othercountries–especiallyEMDEsinsouthandsoutheastAsia,theMiddleEastandAfrica–willneedtosetasteeperpathawayfromfossilfuelswhilemeetinggrowingelectricitydemand.

•Sometransformationalinitiativesalsohavethepotentialtoacceleratethetransitionbyensuringappropriatemulti-stakeholdercollaboration,increasinganddiversifying

investmentflowsandcreatingnewstrategiesforremainingchallenges.Theseinclude

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