印度光伏屋顶潜力分析- Mapping Indias Residential Rooftop Solar Potential 2023

MappingIndia’sResidentialRooftopSolarPotential

ABottom-upAssessmentUsingPrimaryData

SachinZachariah,BhawnaTyagi,andNeerajKuldeep

November2023|Report

©CouncilonEnergy,EnvironmentandWater,2023

Image:iStock

Contents

Keyhighlights

1Studybackground

2Approach

3NationalestimationsforRTSpotentialinthe

residentialsegment

4State-levelestimationsforRTSpotentialinthe

residentialsegment

5Awarenessofsolarintheresidentialsector

6Policyrecommendations

7Annexure

8References

Image:CEEW

Keyhighlights

RooftopsolarpotentialinIndia

Image:CEEW

Restrictingrooftopsolar(RTS)sizetomeethouseholds’

electricitydemand.

637GWofresidentialrooftopsolar(RTS)potentialinIndia

IRESsurvey2020coverage

•21statescovering97%ofthepopulation

•14,850householdswitheight

householdsfromeachvillage/ward

Market

potential

Technical

potential

Economic

potential

637GW

Allsuitable

rooftopsare

entirelycovered

withsolar.

~102GW

Estimationbased

~11GW

Basedonconsumer

118GW

oneconomic

viability(Net

presentvalue>0).

willingnesstopay

andpaybackinafive

yearperiod.

•Unlockingthetechnicalpotentialintheresidentialsegmentrequiresintroducinginnovativebusinessmodelstoutiliseexcessroofspace.

•ThiscanplayasignificantroleinIndia’senergytransitionandcontributetowardsitsrenewableenergy(RE)targetof500GWofinstalledcapacityby2030.

5|

Source:Authors'analysis.

Note:PotentialassessmentbasedontheIndiaResidentialEnergySurvey(IRES)dataset.TheestimatedRTSpotentialsarewithoutanycapitalsubsidy.

Intotal,85%ofthe

technicalpotentialis

concentratedinRTS

systemssizebetween

0-3kWaselectricity

consumptionacross

statesinIndiais

concentratedinthe

lowerslabs.

Intotal,~30%ofthe

technicalpotentiallies

inthe0-1kWcategory.

However,thiscategory

isnotrecognisedin

policyandsubsidy

schemes.

Thedeclinein

technicalpotentialishigherinruralareas

duetolowelectricitydemandpersqft

(6.8kWhpersqft)

comparedtourban

areas(7.7kWhper

sqft).

TheMinistryofNewand

RenewableEnergy

(MNRE)subsidy1is

effectiveforanRTS

systemsizeof1-3kW,

andcanincreasethe

economicpotentialby~5

GWbymakingsystems

economicallyfeasiblefor

moreconsumerswithno

changeinsystemsizes

above3kW.

Decodingrooftopsolarpotentialatthenationalandstatelevels

National-levelinsights

Technicalpotential

reducestoone-fifth

whensystemsizeis

restrictedtomeet

households’electricity

consumptiondueto

lowerelectricity

consumptionpersqft.

6|

Source:Authors’analysis.

Note:1.CapitalsubsidyofINR14,558perkWfor1-3kWRTScategoryunderMNREPhaseIIRTSscheme.

Asignificantdeclinein

technicalpotentialis

witnessedinstates

suchasAssam,Bihar,

Odisha,Madhya

Pradesh,Rajasthan,

Jharkhand,and

Uttarakhanddueto

thelargeshareof

householdswithlow

energyconsumption

persqft.

Net-metering

regulationsfurther

reducetheeconomic

potentialfrom102

GWto~81GW,dueto

minimumkW

restrictionlimitsfor

RTSin15states.For

WestBengal,the

potentialreducesto

zeroduetoaminimum

limitof5kW.

FlatMNREcapital

subsidiesincrease

theeconomic

potentialinstatesby

makingsystems

economicallyviable.

Consumerawareness

aboutsolaris<60%in

mostofthestates.

Awarenessinurban

areasisonly6%higher

thanruralareas.

Consumersinmost

statesfindRTSsystems

tobecostly,making

themaverseto

buyingthem.

Decodingrooftopsolarpotentialatthenationalandstatelevels

State-levelinsights

Morethan60%ofthe

technicalpotentialis

concentratedinseven

statesinIndia.

7|

Source:Authors’analysis.

Note:1.CapitalsubsidyofINR14,558perkWfor1-3kWRTScategoryunderMNREPhaseIIRTSscheme.

Unlockingtherooftopsolarpotentialintheresidentialsector

Recommendations

•Introducingtargetedcapitalsubsidies,particularlyforRTSsystemsofsize0-3kW.

•RecognisingRTSsystemsof<1kW,bothinpoliciesandregulations,assignificantpotentialliesinthis

category.

Policyandregulatoryinterventions

8|Source:Authors’analysis.

•Rollingoutanationalawarenesscampaigntogenerateamore

significantdemandforRTS.

•Creatingonestopplatformatthestateleveltoprovideconsumersbasic,reliable,andcompelling

informationaboutRTS.

Consumer-centric

interventions

•Unlockinguntappedpotentialbymovingbeyondtraditionalmodels

toovercomeconstraintssuchaslimitedroofspace,ownershipofroofs,andcapitalconstraints.

•Introducinglow-costfinancing

optionswithafastapprovalprocessandaseparatelineofcreditfor

residentialconsumers.

Market-driven

interventions

I01Studybackground

Image:CEEW

SolarisingIndia’shouseholdsforanacceleratedenergytransition

Asof2022,Indianhouseholdsconsume

aboutafourthofthetotalelectricitysold

annually(1317billionunits).Consumptionintheresidentialsectorislikelytodoubleby

2030aspertheprojectionsofthe20th

ElectricPowerSurveyofIndia.Thiswillbefuelledbygrowingpercapitaelectricity

consumption,rapidurbanisation,andareturntonormalcyaftertheCOVID-19pandemic.

Shiftingexistingandfuturehousehold

electricityneedstocleanenergyremainscriticaltoachievingIndia’snationally

determinedcontributions(NDCs)targetsanddeepdecarbonisationoftheeconomyinthelongrun.

EstablishingtheneedforRTS

10|Source:CEA,2023;NREL;MNRE;BridgetoIndia

LimitedresidentialRTS

deployment

RTSprovidesanexcellentopportunityfor

Indianhouseholdstocontributesignificantly

totheongoingenergytransitionby

substitutingtheirelectricityconsumptionwithsolar.AsofAugust2023,Indiahas

installedabout11GWofRTScapacity

against55.3GWofutility-scaleprojects.

Further,theshareofresidentialrooftopsisonly21percentofthetotalRTScapacity,giventhatRTSadoptionislargelyskewed

towardscommercialandindustrial

consumers.

Overtheyears,theMNREandstateshave

introducedaslewofpolicy,regulatoryand

marketinitiativestopromoteRTSamong

residentialconsumers.Someofthesekey

initiativesincludetheNationalRooftopSolarPortal,whichhasasimplifiedRTSadoptionprocedure,directbenefittransferforcapital

subsidyundertheCentralFinancial

Assistanceschemeandprovisionofnet-metering,amongothers.

Keyrooftopsolarpolicyinitiatives

Approachtoestimatetherooftopsolarpotential

Thetrueeconomicandmarketpotentialcanbecapturedonlyby

consideringhouseholds’economicstrengthandenergyfootprint.Weconductadetailedassessmentofthetechnical,economic,andmarketpotentialofhouseholdsinIndiabyadoptingthebottom-upapproach.TheassessmentfurtherprovidesinsightsontheRTS

potentialofdifferentstates,theurban-ruralsplit,andpotentialfordifferentsystemsizes.

SolarisingIndia’shouseholdsforanacceleratedenergytransition

Assessmentofrooftopsolarpotentialiscrucialfortargetedintervention

TheresidentialrooftopsectorrequirestargetedpoliciesandmarketinterventionstoaccelerategrowthinRTSadoption.Thisnecessitatesanin-depthunderstandingofRTSpotentialacrosstheentire

consumerstrata.Thereisadearthofstudiesthatestimatethe

potentialofRTSforresidentialconsumersinIndia.ExistingstudiesonRTSpotentialarebasedonsecondaryliteratureandprovidelimitedunderstandingwithnoinformationonstate-wisepotential.

11|

Source:CEA,2023;NREL;MNRE;BridgetoIndia

I02Approach

Image:CEEW

Bottom-upapproach

Performstratifiedsampling1

Conducthousehold-leveldatacollection

Estimatetechnicalpotentialatthehouseholdlevel

Estimateeconomicandmarketfeasibilityatthehouseholdlevel

Multiplyestimateswithweightageforthevillage/wardlevel

Multiplyestimateswith

weightageforthedistrictlevel

Multiplyestimateswith

weightageforthestatelevel

∑ofpotential(s)inallstates≈IndiaRTSpotential

1.Samplingapproachisprovidedindetailintheannexures.

Typesofpotential

Resourcepotential

Theamountofsunshineovertheroof

areathatcanbeusedtogenerate

electricalenergyusingasolarPV

system.

Economicpotential

Theportionoftechnicalpotentialthat

iseconomicallyfeasiblei.e.thenet

presentvalueofsavingsthatisgreater

thantheexpensesofsettingupa

system.

Technicalpotential

ThecapacityofasolarPVsystemthat

canbeinstalledonarooftop,

accountingforfactorssuchasrooftop

availabilityandenergyconsumptionof

thehouse.

Marketpotential

Theportionofeconomicpotential

whereeitherthepaybackperiodofthe

solarPVsystemislessthanfiveyears

orconsumerwillingnesstobuyis

positive.

DataonIndianhouseholdscapturedthroughtheIndiaResidentialEnergySurvey(IRES)

Householdsurveyed

1500

1000

500

0

Haryana

Chhattisgarh

Jharkhand

Uttarakhand

HimachalPradesh

Kerala

Delhi

Assam

Punjab

Telangana

AndhraPradesh

Odisha

Karnataka

Gujarat

MadhyaPradesh

Rajasthan

TamilNadu

WestBengal

Bihar

Maharashtra

UttarPradesh

Urban

Rural

IRESsurvey2020coverage:

•21statescovering97%ofthepopulation.Dataconsistsof66%ruraland34%urbanhouseholds.

•152districtsselectedthroughclustersampling

•1210villagesand614urbanwardsthroughclustersampling

•14,850householdswitheighthouseholdsfromeachvillage/ward

14|

Source:Agrawal,Shalu,SunilMani,AbhishekJain,KarthikGanesanandJohannesUrpelainen.2020.IndiaResidentialEnergySurvey(IRES)

2020:Designanddataquality.NewDelhi:CouncilonEnergy,EnvironmentandWater.

Resourcepotential

Technicalpotential

Rooftopareabased

Technicalpotential

Consumerenergyconsumptionbased

Parametersusedforcalculation

•Rooftoparea

•Rooftopavailabilityfactor1

•Rooftopsustainabilityfactor2

Parametersusedforcalculation

•Consumers’energyconsumption

•Rooftoparea

Economicpotential

Economicpotential={Technicalpotential,

ifsystemiseconomicallyviable0,ifsystem

iseconomicallyunviable}

Marketpotential

Marketpotential={Yes,ifconsumeris

interestedandNPV5>0orconsumerisnot

interestedbutNPV5>0;No,otherwise}

Decisiontreetoestimateresidentialrooftopsolarpotential

Parametersusedforcalculation

•Stateweatherprofile

•Statesrooftopareaavailable

Minimumoftechnicalpotential

{Rooftoparea,energyconsumption}

SystemseconomicallyviableifNPV>0Parametersusedforcalculationare

•RTSsystemcost3

•Energyconsumption

•Retailelectricitytariff

Parametersusedforcalculation

•Paybackperiodlessthanfiveyears

•ConsumerswillingnesstoinstallRTS

Notes:1.Rooftopavailabilityfactordeterminestheavailabilityofroofspaceforinstallationafteraccountingforshading,obstructions,andotherconstraints.

15|2.Rooftopsuitabilityfactordeterminesthesuitabilityoftherooftoputupthesystemfor25years.

3.TheRTSsystemcostisconsideredwithoutsubsidy.

I03isforRTSpotentialinthe

Image:CEEW

India'shouseholdscandeploymorethan600GWofrooftopsolar

Technicalpotential

Economicpotential

Marketpotential

637GW

118GW

~102GW

~11GW

Allsuitablerooftopsarecoveredwithsolar.1

Technicalpotentialreducestoone-fifthafterlimitingthesystemsizebyelectricityconsumption.Thisisprimarilydrivenbylowerelectricity

consumptionpersqftinmostofthestatesinIndia.

RTSsizeequaltoa

household’s

electricitydemand.

Estimationbasedon

economicviability

(NPV>0).

Mostresidentialconsumersfallinlowconsumptionslabs–(0-100)and(100–300)kWhpermonth.Typically,theseconsumersreceiveelectricityata

subsidisedratetomakeelectricityaffordableforthem.

Asaresult,lowresidentialelectricitytariffratesreducetheeconomic

viabilityofrooftopsystemseventhoughtheyaretechnicallyfeasible.Thisreducesthetechnicalpotentialby16GWtoarriveateconomicpotential.

Basedonconsumer

willingnesstopay

andpaybackperiod.

Thepotentialreducesfurtherto11GWwhenthepaybackperiodis

restrictedtofiveyearsandwithconsumers’limitedwillingnesstopay.Thisisprimarilydrivenbylowerelectricitytariffratesandhighsystemcosts,making

thesystemunabletorecovertheinvestmentcostinfiveyears,furtherworsenedbylimitedconsumerawarenessaboutthebenefitsofRTS.

17|

Source:Author'sanalysis

Note:1.Forrooftopwithshading,only50%ofthespaceisconsideredavailableforRTS.2TheestimatedRTSpotentialsarewithoutanycapitalsubsidy.

0.5

0.5

17

35

15

50

0.5

2

3

4

2

16

26

14

45

Rooftopsolarpotentialshiftsto<3kWsystemsizesrestrictedbyelectricityconsumption

Marketpotential(GW)

Economicpotential(GW)

Technicalpotential–

Rooftopareabased(GW)

Technicalpotential-

Energyconsumptionbased(GW)

521

36

255

320

0-11-22-33-10>10(kW)

•Technicalpotentialbasedonrooftopareaisconcentratedinsystemsizesabove3kW,indicatingthepotentialforputtinguplargersystemsprimarilybasedonhighaveragerooftopspaceacrossstates.

•Limitingthesystemsizebyelectricityconsumptionreducesandshiftsthepotentialtothe<3kWsystemsizecategoriesaselectricityconsumptionacrossstatesinIndiaisconcentratedinthelowertwoslabs–(0-100)kWhand(100–300)kWhpermonth.

•CurrentRTSnetmeteringregulationinmoststatesrestricttheinstallationofanRTSsystemtobelow1kWbyspecifyingtheminimumcapacitycriteria.

18|

Source:Authors’analysisusingIRESdata.

Note:TheestimatedRTSpotentialsarewithoutanycapitalsubsidy.

0.5

0.5

3

53

0.5

5

1

0.4

23

17

0.7

20

18

1

RuralhouseholdshaveabundantspacebutlowelectricitydemandconcentrateseconomicpotentialinlowerkWcategories

Marketpotential(GW)

Economicpotential(GW)

Technicalpotential–

Rooftopareabased(GW)

Technicalpotential-

Energyconsumptionbased(GW)

211

20

144

185

0-11-22-33-10>10(kW)

•Rooftoparea-basedtechnicalpotentialishigherinruralareas(~363GW)duetohigheraverageroofspacecomparedtourbanareas(~274GW).

•Themostpreferredsystemsizeislessthan2kWinruralareasduetolowerelectricitydemand.

19|

Source:Authors’analysisusingIRESdata.

Note:Theestimatedrooftopsolarpotentialsarewithoutanycapitalsubsidy.

15

10

1312

13

110

13

10

135

27

30

1-2kWisthemostpreferredRTSsystemsizeinurbanareas

Marketpotential(GW)

Economicpotential(GW)

Technicalpotential–

Rooftopareabased(GW)

Technicalpotential-

Energyconsumptionbased(GW)

3

10

0.6

2.8

2.6

0.9

0-11-22-33-10>10(kW)

•Technicalpotentialinurbanareasdeclinesby76%whenwerestrictthesystemsizerequirementbyelectricityconsumption.

•Economicpotentialishigherinurbanareasduetohighelectricitydemandpersqft(7.7kWhpersqft)ascomparedtoruralareas(6.8kWhpersqft).

•Marketpotentialisskewedinurbanareasduetohighereconomicfeasibilityandconsumers’willingnesstobuy.

20|

Source:Authors’analysisusingIRESdata.

Note:Theestimatedrooftopsolarpotentialsarewithoutanycapitalsubsidy.

Economicpotential(GW)

5

Theimpactofpoliciesandregulationsonrooftopsolarpotential

Impactofstatemeteringregulations

Economic102GW~81GW

Economicpotential(GW)

50

40

30

20

10

0

1616

26

1314

10

0

4145

0-11-22-33-10>10

RTSsystemcategory(kW)

WithnetmeteringWithoutnetmetering

•IntroducingthenetmeteringregulationreducestheeconomicpotentialduetotheminimumkW

restrictionlimitforRTSin15states,rangingfrom102GWto81GW.

•PotentialreducestozeroforWestBengalduetotheminimumlimitof5kW.

•Themaximumlimitdoesn’thaveanimpactonRTSpotential.

ImpactofMNRERTSsubsidies

Economic102GW107GW

60

50

40

29

30

10

20

20

17

10

13

10

0.5

3

0

0-11-22-33-10>10

RTSsystemcategory(kW)

RuralUrban

•TheMNREsubsidyiseffectiveforRTSsystemsizesof1-3kWandincreasetheeconomicpotentialby

~5GWbymakingsystemseconomicallyfeasibleformoreconsumers.

•Nochangeinpotentialobservedinthe3-10kWcategory,implyingthatthesystemswerefeasiblewithoutsubsidies.

Impactofvariationsinpaybackperiods

Marketpotential(GW)

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

68

3232

10

11

7

3years

With

subsidy

5years8years

Paybackperiod

Withoutsubsidy

•Increasingthepaybackperiodtoeightyears

increasesthemarketpotentialsignificantlyasmorehouseholdsareabletorecovertheinvestmentcostoveralongertimeframeevenwithlowelectricity

consumption.

•Themarketpotentialincreasesfurtheron

introducinganMNREcapitalsubsidyasitmakesRTSfeasibleformorehouseholdswithafiveyear

paybackperiod.

21|

Source:Authors’analysis.

Note:1.Netmeteringregulationspecifytheminimumandmaximumsystemsizesthatcanbeinstalledasgrid-connectedsystems.2.CapitalsubsidyofINR14,558perkWforthe1-3kWRTScategoryundertheMNREPhaseIIRTSscheme.

I04llaRTSpotential

Image:CEEW

~25crorehouseholdscouldsupport637GWRTScapacityacross

states

637GW118

GW

~102GW

~11GW

Marketpotential(GW)

Economicpotential(GW)

Technicalpotential–

Rooftopareabased(GW)

Technicalpotential–

Energyconsumptionbased(GW)

•RTSpotentialisspreadgeographicallyacrossstatesinIndiaincontrasttootherrenewabletechnologiessuchasutilityscalesolar,windprojects,etc.andcouldbecriticaltostates’energytransitionambitions

•Morethan60%oftechnicalpotentialisconcentratedinsevenstatesinIndia.One-thirdofthetotaltechnicalpotentialcouldsupporttheentireelectricitydemandoftheresidentialsector(~310TWh),althoughnotallofthisdemandisinthedaytime.

•AsignificantdeclineintechnicalpotentialiswitnessedinstatessuchasAssam,Bihar,Odisha,MadhyaPradesh,Rajasthan,Jharkhand,andUttarakhandduetothehighshareofhouseholdswithlowenergyconsumptionpersqft.

23|

Source:Authors’analysisusingIRESdata.

Note:TheestimatedRTSpotentialsarewithoutanycapitalsubsidy.

Technicalpotential-RooftopareabasedTechnicalpotential–Energybased

Technicalpotentialbasedonrooftopareais

muchhigherinruralareas(363GW)comparedtourbanareas(274GW)

Technicalpotentialbasedonrooftopareais

muchhigherinruralareascomparedtourbanareasinmostofthestatesexceptMaharashtra,Delhi1,TamilNadu,GujaratandAssamdueto

morerooftopspacesinurbanareasinthesestates.

Restrictingbyelectricityconsumption,potentialdeclinesacrossallstatesduetolowerelectricityconsumptionpersqft,i.e.,thereismoreroof

spaceavailablethansystemsizeneededtomeetelectricitydemand.

Technicalpotentialbasedonenergyconsumptionishigherinurbanareas(65GW)thanruralareas(52GW)duetohigherelectricityconsumptioninurbanareas.

Ruralstratashowshighertechnicalpotentialcomparedtourban

areasacrossstates

24|

AndhraPradesh

Assam BiharChhattisgarhDelhi

Gujarat HaryanaHimachalPradeshJharkhand

Karnataka

KeralaMadhyaPradeshMaharashtra

Odisha

Punjab

RajasthanTamilNadu

TelanganaUttarPradesh

Uttarakhand

WestBengal

30

11

23

10

29

9

1

1

0

16

5

8

6

5

1

5

3

5

11

10

9

10

6

8

29

33

15

38

19

10

16

31

19

26

17

11

46

43

25

17

39

01020304050

GW

UrbanRural

Source:Author'sanalysisusingIRESdata

Notes:1.Delhihasonlyurbanspacesinitsregion.

AndhraPradesh

Assam BiharChhattisgarhDelhi

Gujarat HaryanaHimachalPradeshJharkhand

Karnataka

KeralaMadhyaPradeshMaharashtra

Odisha

Punjab

RajasthanTamilNadu

TelanganaUttarPradesh

Uttarakhand

WestBengal

5

3

0

1

4

2

0.2

0.2

6

0

1

1

2

2

0.3

1

1

0.5

2

2

2

3

1

1

12

6

2

2

4

5

3

2

4

6

2

2

11

6

0.5

0.4

4

5

051015

GW

UrbanRural

Capitalsubsidieshaveanimpactoneconomicpotentialinsevenstates

AndhraPradesh

Assam BiharChhattisgarhDelhi

Gujarat HaryanaHimachalPradeshJharkhand

Karnataka

KeralaMadhyaPradeshMaharashtra

Odisha

Punjab

RajasthanTamilNadu

TelanganaUttarPradesh

Uttarakhand

WestBengal

5

8

2

1

3

5

0.2

0

4

4

1

1

0

0.5

1

1

0

1

3

4

3

3

2

2

18

18

2

2

8

8

3

5

10

10

3

5

12

10

1

1

0

9

05101520

AndhraPradesh

Assam BiharChhattisgarhDelhi

Gujarat HaryanaHimachalPradeshJharkhand

Karnataka

KeralaMadhyaPradeshMaharashtra

Odisha

Punjab

RajasthanTamilNadu

TelanganaUttarPradesh

Uttarakhand

WestBengal

8

8

22

5

5

0.2

0.2

4

5

12

1

0.5

1

1

1

1

4

4

3

4

2

2

18

18

22

8

8

56

10

5

5

14

12

1

1

9

9

05101520

GWGW

WithnetmeteringWithoutnetmeteringWithoutsubsidyWithsubsidy

25|Source:Authors’analysisusingIRESdata.

Declineineconomicpotentialishigherinstateswithlowerelectricitytariffratesmakingit

economicallylessattractiveforconsumerstoputupsystemswithoutupfrontcapitalsubsidies.

Lowerlimitsinnetmeteringregulations(i.e.1kWandabove)arerestrictiveinafewstatesreducingtheeconomicpotential,especiallyforstateswitheconomicpotentialinthe<1kWcategorysuchas

UttarPradesh,AndhraPradesh,Telangana,Rajasthan,Karnataka,Jharkhand,andKerala.

EconomicpotentialdeclinestozeroforWest

Bengalwhichhasalowerlimitof5kWandaboveforRTSsystemsunderitsnetmeteringregulation.

FlatMNREcapitalsubsidiesincreasethe

economicpotentialinsevenstatesthathave

witnessedadeclinefromtechnicaltoeconomic

potentialbymakingsystemseconomicallyviable.

However,therewasnoincreaseineconomic

potentialdespiteintroducingcapitalsubsidiesinotherstates.

Marketpotentialwithdifferentpaybackperiods–withoutsubsidy

Marketpotential(GW)7GW

AndhraPradesh

0.70.2

0.3

0

0.2

0.3

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.1

2.1

0.1

Assam

Bihar

Chhattisgarh

Delhi

Gujarat

Haryana

HimachalPradesh

Jharkhand

Karnataka

Kerala

MadhyaPradesh

Maharashtra

Odisha

0.50.30.50.40.3

Punjab

Rajasthan

TamilNadu

0

0.4

Telangana

UttarPradesh

Uttarakhand

WestBengal

6

024

8101214

3

years

Marketpotential(GW)11GW

AndhraPradesh

Assam BiharChhattisgarhDelhi

Gujarat HaryanaHimachalPradesh JharkhandKarnataka

KeralaMadhyaPradesh MaharashtraOdisha

Punjab

RajasthanTamilNadu

TelanganaUttarPradeshUttarakhand

WestBengal

1.3

0.2

0.3

0

0.2

0.3

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.1

4.8

0.1

0.5

0.4

0.6

0.4

0.3

0

0.4

02468101214

5years

Marketpotential(GW)32GW

AndhraPradesh

Assam BiharChhattisgarhDelhi

Gujarat HaryanaHimachalPradesh JharkhandKarnataka

KeralaMadhyaPradesh MaharashtraOdisha

Punjab

RajasthanTamilNadu

TelanganaUttarPradeshUttarakhand

WestBengal

2.4

0.2

3.1

0

0.5

0.3

0.1

1.1

0.4

3.8

0.2

0.4

11.8

0.1

0.8

3.3

1

1

0.3

0.2

0.5

6

024

8101214

8

years

•Consideringtheconsumerwillingnesstoadoptandthepaybackperiod(fiveyears),marketpotentialreducessignificantlyacrossstatesto11GW.

•MarketpotentialincreasesbyincreasingthepaybackperiodwithsignificantchangesseeninthecaseofAndhraPradesh,Maharashtra,Bihar,Karnataka,andRajasthan.

26

Source:Authors’analysisusingIRESdata.

Marketpotentialwithdifferentpaybackperiods–withsubsidy

Marketpotential(GW)10GW

AndhraPradesh

Assam BiharChhattisgarhDelhi

Gujarat HaryanaHimachalPradesh JharkhandKarnataka

KeralaMadhyaPradesh MaharashtraOdisha

Punjab

RajasthanTamilNadu

TelanganaUttarPradeshUttarakhand

WestBengal

0.8

0.2

0.3

0

0.3

0.4

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.1

4.5

0.1

0.5

0.3

0.5

0.4

0.3

0

0.4

0246

810121416

3

years

Marketpotential(GW)32GW

AndhraPradesh

Assam BiharChhattisgarhDelhi

Gujarat HaryanaHimachalPradesh JharkhandKarnataka

KeralaMadhyaPradesh MaharashtraOdisha

Punjab

RajasthanTamilNadu

TelanganaUttarPradeshUttarakhand

WestBengal

2.5

0.2

3.3

0

0.7

0.4

0.2

1.1

0.5

2.7

0.2

0.4

12.4

0.1

0.8

3.2

1

1

0.3

0.3

0.5

0246810121416

5years

Marketpotential(GW)68GW

AndhraPradesh

Assam BiharChhattisgarhDelhi

Gujarat HaryanaHimachalPradesh JharkhandKarnataka

KeralaMadhyaPradesh MaharashtraOdisha

Punjab

RajasthanTamilNadu

TelanganaUttarPradeshUttarakhand

WestBengal

4.6

1.4

3.3

0

2.7

0.8

0.4

1.1

0.5

3.8

0.9

1

14.3

0.3

4.9

3.3

6.8

3.1

9.6

0.5

5.1

0246

810121416

8

years

•Marketpotentialincreasesbythreetimesafterintroducingacapitalsubsidyasmoresystemsbecomeseconomicallyviable.Theincreaseismorethan50percentinthecaseoffive-yearandeight-yearpaybackperiods.

•Systemsarenoteconomicallyviableformostofthestateswithathree-yearpaybackperiodduetolowerelectricitytariffrates.

27

Source:Author'sanalysisusingIRESdata

I05

State-levelestimations

Awarenessofsolarintheresidentialsector

Image:iStock

Lessthan50%ofconsumersinIndiaareawareofsolar

ConsumerawarenessaboutsolaracrossstatesinIndia

29|

Source:Authors’analysisusingIRESdata.

Note:Thesurveyenquiredaboutconsumerawarenessofsolarhomesystemsusedforhouseholdelectricityneeds..

Consumersawareaboutofsolar(%)

Rural

Urban

42

48

52

AwareNotaware

58

•Consumerawarenessofsolarisstilllessthan5