物流行业及发展趋势研究分析报告-

Logistics

Services

Industry

Environment

&

Trend

Analysis-

COSCO

Comments

and

A.T.

KearneyRemarksCOSCO

IPO

SUPPORT

MATERIALSJuly,

2001The

contents

of

this

document

were

prepared

by

A.T.

Kearney

and

may

not

be

used,

altered

ordisclosed

to

other

parties,

without

the

written

permission

of

A.T.

Kearney.

The

informationcontained

in

this

document

has

been

obtained

from

external

sources

which

A.T.

Kearney

believes

are

reliable.

However,

A.T.

Kearney

can

make

no

representation

as

to

the

accuracy

or

completenessof

the

information

or

projections

derived

therefrom.Table

of

ContentsExecutive

SummaryMarket

Size

&

GrowthGlobalChinaService

DemandGlobalTrendsChina

TrendsCompetitive

EnvironmentGlobalChinaRegulatory

EnvironmentInformation

TechnologyAppendixExecutive

SummaryA.T.

Kearney’s

definition

of

the

logistics

services

industryStructuring

and

managing,

on

behalf

of

cargo

owners,solutions

involving

some

combination

of

parts

of

the

supplchain

(i.e.

transportation,

warehousing,

(de)consolidation,The

logistics

service

industryopportunity,both

globally

and

iMarrkeet

Cpharracteersisteic

nt

a

tremenCodnclousuions

growthCustomerCs

arhe

iincrneasaingly

demanding

high

value

logistics

sersolutions,

requiring

global

reach

and

advanced

supplychainmanagement

capabilitiesIncreasing

demand

for

global

reach

and

capabilities

fuelsconsolidation

as

large

full

service

providers

are

positioningthemselves

for

successChina’s

entry

into

WTO

is

expected

to

have

two

mainimplications

-

the

logistics

market

willgrow

rapidly,

andcompetitive

intensity

will

dramatically

increaseStrong

IT

capabilities

is

becoming

a

core

capability

of

logistservices

providers

and

is

critical

to

building

a

logistics

serbusinessMarket

Size

&GrowthService

DemandCompetitiveEnvironmentRegulatoryEnvironmentInformationTechnologySource:

A.T.

KearneyThe

global

logistics

services

market

reached

an

estimated

US$Bn

in

2000.

The

China

market

is

still

small

at

US$

0.61

Bn,

but

wbe

growing

rapidly

at

CAGR

35%

over

the

next

five

yearsThe

China

logistics

industry

willbeshaped

by

China’s

entry

into

the

WIndustryScenario2006Rapid

increase

in

M&AactivitiesKey

alliances

formedwithin

the

next

2-3

yearsImplementation

of

e-commerce

initiatives

andincreasing

dependence

onIT

networkMergers,

Acquisitions

andAlliancesGlobal

CompetitorsRapid

expansion

of

globalplayers

offering

sophisticatedend-to-endsolution,

includinglogistics,

transportation

andITTechnologythe

subsequent

opening

of

themarket

to

foreign

competitionWTO

EntryThe

logistics

market

willgrow

rapidlyCompetitive

intensity

willdramatically

increaseSource:

A.T.

Kearney1.

Market

Size

&

GrowthThe

global

logistics

services

market

reached

an

estimated

US$

190

Bn

inThe

global

logistics

outsourcing

market

is

estimated

to

US$

190

Bn

in

2000The

transportation

and

related

expenditures

market

reached

an

estimated

US$

3.8

Trillio2000,

andis

expected

to

grow

atan

annual

rate

of

2.3%

over

the

next

5years

The

Asian

logistics

outsourcing

market

is

estimated

to

reach

US$

31

Bn

in

2001

and

is

exptogrow

at

CAGR

39%

over

the

next

five

years

The

greatest

opportunities

for

outsourcing

are

in

transport,

warehousing,

and

transpormanagement

The

growth

of

the

global

logistics

services

industry

is

mainly

driven

by

shippers’propoutsource

logistics

services

and

organic

transportation

market

growth

Customer

electronics,

automotive

and

apparel

represent

the

most

attractive

opportunitilogistics

services

in

ChinaThe

Chinamarket

is

still

small

at

US$

0.61

Bn,

but

will

be

growing

rapidCAGR

35%

over

the

next

five

years

The

China

logistics

services

market

is

still

small

at

US$

0.61

Bn,

but

will

be

growing

raover

the

next5yearsThe

logistics

services

industry

is

still

at

anearly

stage

of

evolution

in

ChinaThe

transportation

and

related

expenditures

are

proportionately

higher

in

China

than

indeveloped

countries

and

NIEs

-

indicating

a

major

improvement

opportunity

In

Coastal

China,

demand

for

logistics

services

is

expected

to

bestrong

in

Guangdong

anShanghaiIn

Inland

China,

the

largest

demand

potential

is

in

Sichuanand

the

Hubei/Yangtze

river

Growth

in

the

logistics

services

industry

in

China

will

mainly

be

driven

by

continued

maeconomic

growth

and

increased

propensity

to

outsource

logisticsFavorable

macro

economic

outlookPublic

policy

and

spendingIncreasing

interest

in

outsourcing

for

logistics

needsGrowing

IT

and

E-businessMarket

Size

&

Growth-

GlobalThe

global

logistics

outsourcing

market

is

estimated

to

US$

190

Bn

in

2Source:

Chinainfobank,

CSFB,

A.T.

KearneyTransportation

andrelated

activitieshandled

bymanufacturers,wholesalers,

retailersthemselves(e.g.private

fleet,

privatewarehousing)Discrete

sets

oftransportationand

relatedservicesoutsourced

bymanufacturers,wholesalers,retailers(e.g.

publicwarehousing

etc.)Combination

of“transportationand

relatedservices”provisioned

by3rd

party

logisticsservice

providersGlobal

Transportation

and

Logistics

Market

Size

(2000)US$

3

,800

BnOutsourcedUS$

190

BnGlobal

transportationand

relatedexpendituresGlobal

outsourcedtransportation

andrelated

servicesGlobal

logisticsoutsourcing

marketUS$

BnThe

transportation

and

related

expenditures

market

reached

an

estimatTrillion

in

2000,

and

is

expected

to

grow

at

an

annual

rate

of

2.3%

overyearsNote:

(1)

Asia

includes

Japan,

Hong

Kong,

Korea,

SingaporeandTaiwanSource:

Bowersox

and

Calantone;

CSFB;

A.T.

Kearney

AnalysisTransportation

and

Related

Expenditures

byRegion

(2000)Transportation

and

Related

Expenditures

byFunction

(2000)US$

BnTotal

=

US$

3

,837

BnAsia(1

):2

.2

%Europe:2

.6

%North

America:4

.0

%3

,

4243

,

8374

,

389CAGR=

2

.

3

%CAGR=

2

.

8

%Transport$2,204

BnOthers$55

BnShipper-Related$20

BnInventory$1,102

BnAdmin$152

BnWarehousing$304

BnCAGR2000

-2006Others:-1

.4

%The

Asian

logistics

outsourcing

market

is

estimated

to

reach

US$

31

Bnand

is

expected

to

grow

at

CAGR

39%

over

the

next

five

yearsNote:

Asia

includes

China,

Japan,

Honk

Kong,

Korea,

Singapore

and

TaiwanSource:

Bowersox

andCalantone;

CSFB;

A.T.

Kearney

AnalysisLogistics

Outsourcing

Market

in

Asia

-

Gross

Revenue(US$

Bn)CAGR

(99-01)

=

38%CAGR

(01-06)

=

39%The

greatest

opportunities

for

outsourcing

are

in

transport,

warehoutransport

managementTransportWarehousingTransportManagementITSupplementaryLogistic

ServicesPurchase

OrderManagementLogisticsManagement30%47%48%85%20%40%39%76%23%2%5%16%%

of

respondents

outsourcing

1998%

of

respondents

planed

outsourcing

200313%8%Outsourcing

by

FunctionResourcerequire-mentsComplexityNote:Source:The

percentage

may

not

add

up

to

100%

due

to

roundingBased

on

several

A.T.

Kearney

studies,

including:-Worldwide

study

comprising

280

participants(automotive19%,

electronics

25%,

retail

27%,chemicals

29%)-European

study

comprising

500

participants

(retail

26%,

food

&

beverage

26%,

commodities

22%,

machinery

12%,automotive

7%,

electronics

&

high-tech

4%)Outsourcing

of

non-core

businessactivitiesOrganic

growth

oftransportationmarketsIncreased

complexity

of

globalsupply

chainsRecognition

by

many

shippers

thatsupply

chain

strategy

may

be

a

keycompetitive

advantageWillingness

to

outsource

whenlogistics

not

seen

as

core

competencyDevelopment

of

superior

logisticscapability

by

a

few

3PLsGrowth

in

demand

for

transportationservices

expands

with

internationaltrade

growthGlobalization

of

many

industriesmeans

goods

need

to

move

overlonger

distances

at

faster

speeds

withhigher

reliabilityGrowth

inLogisticsServicesSource:

UBS

Warburg,

IDCGrowth

Drivers

Details12The

growth

of

the

global

logistics

services

industry

is

mainly

driven

bshippers’

propensity

to

outsource

logistics

services

and

organic

tramarket

growthConsumer

electronics,

automotive

and

apparel

represent

the

most

attraopportunities

for

logistics

services

in

ChinaNote:2.

Analysis

is

indicative

onlySource:

A.T.

Kearney

field

interviews

and

researchHighLow(2001

-2006

)RemarksHighly

market-oriented,

need

quick

response

to

consumer

feedbacManufacturers

have

to

to

improve

operation

efficiency

continuouto

intense

competitionRelatively

high

product

value

and

less

price

sensitiveHigh

requirement

for

timing

and

reliability

of

linersHigh

gross

margin

industry,

production

cost

andlogisticsaccounless

percentage

of

salesPrefer

timely

feedback

from

destination

ports,

i.e.trade

consulservicesAutomotive

supplies

involve

over

30,000

parts,

which

needconsolidating

suppliers

to

handle

logisticsIntense

competition

drives

companies

to

reduce

cost,

currentinefficiency

in

self-handling

leads

companies

to

consider

outsoservices

activelyHigh

value

products,

not

very

price

sensitive,

but

sometimes

decare

made

overseasPacking

requirement

involves

technical

difficulties,

unwillingoutsource

logistics

servicesHigh

profit

industry,

not

very

price

sensitiveHigh

quality

requirement

for

dry,

no

smell,

no

leaking

containercontainerized

in

factoryClearance

of

cigarettes

needs

to

be

done

by

professional

I/E

compor

manufacturesLarge

and

special

shape,

therefore

the

way

to

put

them

into

contacanimpact

the

number

of

containers

to

be

used,

which

directly

relto

cost

-

usually

done

in-houseCost

sensitive,

firms

usually

choose

less

busy

season

to

get

cheapricesFrozen

products

and

fresh

products

need

to

be

handled

fast

with

cOther

products

are

low-value

and

need

no

special

servicesLow

value

products,

highly

price

sensitiveLower

quality

requirement,

usually

containerized

at

portsConsumerElectronicsApparelAutomotiveMachineryTobacco

&LiquorPrimaryGoodsChemicals1.

Size

of

circle

relative

to

segment

&s&iMzaetienr2i00a0lsIndustryLowHigh

FurnitureConsumerElectronicsApparelAutomotiveOutsourcing

PropensityTobacco,LiquorPrimaryGoodsOpportunity

Assessment

by

IndustryChemicals&

MaterialsFurnitureMachineryAdd

market

and

trendsanalysis

by

industryMarket

Size

&

Growth-

ChinaThe

Chinalogistics

services

market

is

still

small

at

US$

0.61

Bn,

but

wgrowing

rapidly

over

the

next

5

yearsLogistics

Outsourcing

Market

-

Gross

Revenue(2000,

US$

Bn)Note:Source:Asia

includes

China,

Japan,

Hong

Kong,

Singaporeand

TaiwanBowersox

and

Calantone;

CSFB;

A.T.

Kearney

EstimatesCAGR=35%190230

.61China

Logistics

Service

Market(US$,

Bn)The

logistics

services

industry

is

still

at

an

early

stage

of

evolutionCharacteristics•

Emergingdemand

foroutsourced

logisticsservicesLow

value

addedservices

such

astransport

andwarehousing

are

theoutsourcedbehaviour

beingimpacteduser

base

and

higherrequirement

forbroader

servicesLarge

number

ofservices

providerscompeting

formajor

type

of

services

customersandhumanresourcesprovided

as

sellingpointsbecomes

commonpracticeand

animportant

lever

forcompetitionConsolidated

servicemarket

with

a

fewestablished

marketleadersservices

are

free

and

supply

chainandreplace

traditionalbusiness

modelsFast

growth

of

logisti•csLogistics

outsourcing•

Global

logisticsintegrators

provideone-stop

solutionworldwideSpecializationandclose

cooperationamong

global

logisticsservice

providersOptimized

allocationTraditional

in-house

•

Most

high

value

added

•

Logistics

penetrate

inand

integration

ofresources

along

thesupply

chainStageEmergenceGrowthPenetrationGlobalizationWorld

Leading(US)ChinaTodaySource:

A.T.

KearneyWarehousing

and

DistributionRail

FreightAlthough

Heavily

Used,

RailwayFreight

Has

Long

Transit

Times

andService

Reliability

Is

PoorRailway

Containers

Are

NotCompatibleWith

ShippingCompanyContainersCourierLimited

Presence

of

ForeignFirms

AsJV

E.G.

DHLSinotransRegional

Segregation

inOperationShippingThe

domestic

warehousing

market

is

currentlysmall

and

over-supplied

with

basicwarehouses

providing

virtually

no

value-added

servicesSome

consolidation

just

started

among

thelarge

warehousing

companiesRiver

transportation

has

decliMost

vessels

are

characterizedby

low

speed

and

high

energycostsTruckingTrucking

companies

are

only

alloweto

operate

in

restricted

regionsLogistics

Center

andFreight

ForwardingGovernment

has

established

15Free

Trade

Zones

and

somelogistics

centers

are

set

up

thInland

transportation

is

handlby

domestic

freight

forwarderwho

is

usually

sub-contractedby

the

international

freightforwarderAirlineSeven

domestic

airlines

dominate

regionaloperationsDesignated

foreign

carriers

are

given

a

maximumentitlement

of

50

tonnes

per

weekCustoms

BrokerageMany

customs

clearingbrokerage

firms

andconsiderable

confusion

aboutrolesCustoms

clearing

procedurestook

at

least

½

-

1

daypreviously

but

expected

to

beshortened

to1

hourThe

logistics

services

industry

is

still

at

an

early

stage

of

evolution(continued)Source:

A.T.

Kearney

AnalysisChinaLogisticsServicesTransportation

and

related

expenditures

are

proportionately

higher

iin

most

developed

countries

and

NIEs

–

indicating

a

major

improvementopportunityTotal

Transportation

and

Related

Expendituresand

%

of

GDP

(2000)Note:Source:VAS:

Value-added-servicesIncluding

packaging,

admin,

information

services,

ect.Bowersox

and

Calantone,

CSFB,

IMF

1997

study;

Chinainfobank;

A.T.

Kearney

AnalysisChina

Transportation

and

RelatedExpenditures

Breakdown

by

Function(2000)US$BnTotal

=

US$

248

BnUS$Bn(1

)(2

)In

Coastal

China,

demand

for

logistics

services

is

expected

to

be

stronGuangdong

and

ShanghaiHighLowHebei,Beijing,Tianjin4Beijing

is

the

No.

1

air

cargo

center

in

China.

In

addition,

Beijing’s

hi-tech

industry,

whictransportation,

is

developing

very

fastOver

80%

of

the

volume

through

Tianjin

port

are

agricultural

products,

furniture,

metal

hardwamaterials,

all

being

low

value

products.

In

addition,

most

shippers

are

in

poor

financial

condprice

sensitiveShandong(Qingdao)4Qingdaohas

several

famous

local

companies,

such

as

Haier,

HiSense,

AukmaandQingdao

Beer.

Thquality

oriented

and

less

price

sensitiveFrozen

products

account

for

15-20%

of

the

volume.

Quality

requirements

for

frozen

products

arterms

of

timing

and

handling

care.

Hence,

frozen

products

shippers

tend

to

be

less

price

sensitquality

concernedFootwear

and

garments

account

for

significant

portion.

Some

large

customers

such

as

Payless

Scustomer

of

COSCO

in

volume)

requires

accurate

shipping

time

and

full

range

of

sophisticated

3from

P/O

management,

trade

consulting

to

space

booking,

warehousing

and

transportationLogistics

Demand

–

Selected

Provinces

in

Coastal

ChinaGuangdongProvinceDemand

DemandSize

Growth5RemarksMajor

exports

are

processing

of

lower

value-added

products no

special

requirement

for

logisRoad

transportation

is

convenient,

often

containerized

in

factory

to

reduce

cost

less

needconsolidationElectronics

industry

is

booming

in

Dongguan,

which

has

some

leading

companies

like

Huawei

pprofitable

customersStrong

WeakShanghai(Jiangsu,Zhejiang)5Shanghai

is

the

fast

growing

economic/

financial

center

in

China,

which

has

some

major

MNCs

sucAcer,

Philips,

etc.

They

are

matured

customers

of

logistics

services

and

less

price

sensitive.get

the

deals

from

them

usually

needs

to

involve

high

level

negociationLarge

companies

in

Shanghai

and

nearby

areas

are

mainly

JVs

of

automobile

and

consumer

electrowhichhavehigh

product

value

and

lower

price

sensitivitySource:

A.T.

Kearney

field

interviews

and

analysisDemandSizeSichuan(Chengdu)Chongqing2ProvinceIn

inland

China,

the

largest

demand

potential

is

in

Sichuan

and

the

Hubriver

regionLogistics

Demand

–

Selected

Provinces

in

Inland

ChinaYunnan2DemandGrowthRemarksAgricultural

products,

metal

products

andmotor

cycles,

which

totally

account

for

over

80volume,

are

all

low-value

products,

price

sensitive

and

have

flat

growthUnderdeveloped

infrastructure,

esp.

road

and

rail

transportation

have

limited

foreign

inregion.

Cargoes

usually

transported

by

barges,

which

is

the

cheapest

modeHigh

Low

Strong

WeakSource:

A.T.

Kearney

field

interviews

and

analysisHubei,YangtzeRiver

Region3Have

the

3rd

largest

distribution

center

in

China,

the

largest

population,

and

important

hThe

logistics

industry

there

has

already

attracted

interest

of

foreign

large

shippers

likincluding

Hutchison

WhampoaLocated

in

mountain

areas,

road

transport

infrastructure

is

inconvenient,

so

highly

relyiExports

are

low-value

products

including

tobacco,

cotton,

chemicals

and

steel

materialsMany

imports

are

material

for

JVs

(e.g.

Citreon

and

Dongfeng

Cummins),

of

whichdecisionsmade

overseasMarket

is

very

fragmented

and

shippers

generally

have

small

scale/volumeNo

warehouses/piling

centers

with

modern

container

handling

capacity

and

advancedITstruavailable,

can

be

a

potential

development

areaMost

important

export

industry

is

tobacco,

which

has

high

profit

margin,

high

quality

requlogistics

services,

and

not

very

price

sensitiveExports

for

wood,

wooden

materials

and

furniture,

which

accounted

for

over

30%

of

export

vare

largely

reduced

due

to

newly

imposed

government

sanction

on

cutting

trees3Growth

in

the

logistics

services

industry

in

China

will

mainly

be

drivecontinued

macro

economic

growthand

increased

propensity

to

outsourceGrowth

Driver

ImplicationThe

Chinese

economy

is

expected

to

grow

atCAGR

7%

over

the

next

five

years.

Increasedinternational

and

domestic

trade

will

drivedemand

for

logistics

servicesPublic

policy

and

spending

supportsimprovements

in

China’s

logisticsinfrastructure,

providing

opportunities

for

furtherexpansion

of

logistics

service

providers.

Capableforeign

service

providers

are

limited

in

businessscopebyregulation,

and

their

full

entry

afterThere

is

increasing

interest

among

China-basedenterprises

in

outsourcing

for

logistics

services.Overseas

businesses

are

extending

their

supplychains

deeper

into

ChinaThe

fast

growing

market

in

online

B2Btransactions

provides

an

additional

marketsegment

for

logistics

servicesFavorable

GrowthOutlook

forthe

ChinaWTO

will

drive

the

industry

toward

internationalLogistics

Servicesbest

practicesIndustryFavorable

MacroEconomic

OutlookPublic

Policy

andSpendingIncreasing

Interestin

Outsourcing

forLogistics

NeedsGrowing

IT

and

E-Business1234Source:

A.T.

Kearney

AnalysisThe

Chinese

economy

is

expected

to

grow

at

CAGR

7%

over

the

next

five

yeaSource:

Chinainfobank,

A.T.

Kearney

AnalysisProjection

of

China’s

GDP

Growth

and

Structure

(RMB,

Bn)have

a

positive

impactonthe

logisticssectorImproved

supportive

servicessuch

as

legal,

accounting,

etc.Improved

telecommunicationcapabilitiesRemarks

Continuous

growth

in

GDP

indicates

arobust

and

fast

growing

macro

economy,providing

opportunities

for

sophisticatedlogistics

service

providers

The

economic

structure

will

becontinuously

optimized

and

upgraded

Logistics

is

directly

correlated

with

tmanufacturing

industry,

thereforegrowth

of

secondary

industries

willlead

to

the

growth

of

logistics

servicesImproved

services

industries

will

alsoSecondary:

7

%Tertiary:

9

%CAGR

(01

-06

)Total:

7

%Primary:

3

%13

,3679

,560FavorableMacroEconomicOutlook1Demand

for

logistics

services

comes

from

both

international

and

domestSource:

Hong

Kong

Trade

Development

Council

Research;

ChinainfobankDemand

forLogisticsServicesMore

International

TradeMore

Domestic

TradeInternational

trade

International

trade

has

sustained

theglobaleconomicfluctuation

andkept

fast

growing

in

the

past

5

years

It

is

projected

to

grow

at

a

CAGR

of7.5%,

with

total

trade

valuereaching

US$

680

Bn

in

2005Exports

Expected

to

rise

byanadditional2.4%

per

year

over

the

first

fiveyears

of

WTO

entryShare

as

world

exports

is

projectedto

rise

from

current

3.5%

to

7.3%

in2005Imports

Projected

rise

of

US$

21.3

Bn

afterWTOProjected

annual

growth

rate

will

bemarginally

faster

than

exportDomestic

Trade

CAGR

of

retail

sales

of

consumergoods

in

the

“Ninth

5

Year”

was11%

Positive

outlook

due

tocontinuously

growing

purchasingpowerDevelopmentof

chain

stores

Sales

revenue

of

chain

storecorporations

has

experience

doubdigit

rise

from

1997

Multinational

chain

stores

havebeen

aggressively

improving

theipresence

in

China

marketInter-

city

trade

Currently

more

than

50%

of

theforeign

industrial

and

retail

fidistributed

their

products

in

mothan

50

cities

Inter-city

trade

will

be

frequenafter

WTOFavorableMacroEconomicOutlook1The

State

Economic

and

Trade

Commission

has

established

a

master

plan

fdeveloping

logistics

services

in

ChinaState

Economic

and

Trade

Commission

Logistics

Industry

Trade

PlanSource:

Business

alert

–

China

at

30

PilotCentersSupply

ChainSystemsSelect

suitable

enterprises

in

various

key

cities

to

establishpilot

logistics

and

distribution

centers10

NationalEnterprisesAbout

10

specialized

key

enterprises

with

national

logistics

adistribution

networks

will

be

developedRealign

assets

toforminter-regional,

inter-sector

and

interInter-regional

ownership

logisticsand

distribution

networksNetworksEfforts

will

be

made

to

explore

the

possibility

of

using

3PL

anddistribution

enterprises

to

build

supply

chain

systems,

and

tobring

facilities

and

services

of

logistics

companies

closer

toadvanced

international

standardsPublic

Policyand

Spending2A

wide

array

of

government

supported

logistics

infrastructure

developprograms

are

under

way

acrossChinaSource:

ChinainfobankExamples

of

Government

Initiatives

to

Improve

Logistics

InfrastructureA

number

of

national

logisticscenters

are

under

construction,

withreasonable

size,

standardizedoperation,

and

modern

facilitiesCoastal

Large

Cities

-

LogisticsCenterInland

Areas

-Road/Railway

Modern

third

partylogistics

anddistribution

base

Its

main

body

w