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©2023InternationalMonetaryFund
IMFCountryReportNo.23/374
CABOVERDE
November2023
TECHNICALASSISTANCEREPORT—CONSUMERPRICEINDEX
ThisTechnicalAssistancereportonCaboVerdewaspreparedbyastaffteamofthe
InternationalMonetaryFund.ItisbasedontheinformationavailableatthetimeitwascompletedonJuly2023.
Copiesofthisreportareavailabletothepublicfrom
InternationalMonetaryFund•PublicationServicesPOBox92780•Washington,D.C.20090
Telephone:(202)623-7430•Fax:(202)623-7201
E-mail:
publications@
Web:
Price:$18.00perprintedcopy
InternationalMonetaryFund
Washington,D.C.
TECHNICALASSISTANCE
REPORT
CABOVERDE
ConsumerPriceIndex
JULY2023
PreparedBy
BrianGraf
MEMBERS
CaboVerde,Ghana,Liberia,Nigeria,SierraLeone,TheGambia
PARTNERS
Germany,EuropeanUnion,UnitedKingdom,China,Switzerland,EuropeanInvestmentBank,InternationalMonetary
Fund
DISCLAIMER
“ThecontentsofthisreportconstitutetechnicaladviceprovidedbythestaffoftheInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)totheauthoritiesoftheInstitutoNacionaldeEstatísticaCaboVerde(the"CDrecipient")in
responsetotheirrequestfortechnicalassistance.Thisreport(inwholeorinpart)orsummariesthereof
maybedisclosedbytheIMFtoIMFExecutiveDirectorforCaboVerde,tootherIMFExecutiveDirectorsandmembersoftheirstaff,aswellastootheragenciesorinstrumentalitiesoftheCDrecipient,andupontheirrequest,toWorldBankstaff,andothertechnicalassistanceprovidersanddonorswithlegitimate
interestmembersoftheSteeringCommitteeofAFRITACWest2,unlesstheCDrecipientspecifically
objectstosuchdisclosure(see
OperationalGuidancefortheDisseminationofCapacityDevelopment
Information)
.PublicationorDisclosureofthisreport(inwholeorinpart)topartiesoutsidetheIMFother
thanagenciesorinstrumentalitiesoftheCDrecipient,WorldBankstaff,othertechnicalassistance
providersanddonorswithlegitimateinterestmembersoftheSteeringCommitteeofAFRITACWest2,shallrequiretheexplicitconsentoftheCDrecipientandtheIMF’sStatisticsdepartment.”
MEMBERS
CaboVerde
TheGambia
Ghana
Liberia
Nigeria
SierraLeone
PARTNERS
IMF|TechnicalAssistanceReport–CaboVerdeConsumerPriceIndex|
3
TableofContents
Glossary 4
SummaryofMissionOutcomeandPriorityRecommendations 5
MainFindingsandRecommendations 7
A.ConsumerPriceIndex 7
.
Weights 7
.
ItemandVarietySamples 7
.
IndexCalculation 8
.
TemporarilyMissingPrices 8
.
PriceReferencePeriod 8
.
RentSurvey 9
.
HeadlineInflationRate 10
.
TechnicalAssistanceNeeds 10
AnnexI.OfficialsMetDuringtheMission 11
AnnexII.DetailedWorkPlan 12
A.ProjectObjectives 12
B.ProjectOutcomes 12
IMF|TechnicalAssistanceReport–CaboVerdeConsumerPriceIndex|
4
Glossary
AFW2
AFRITACWest2RegionalTechnicalAssistanceCenter
COICOP
ClassificationofIndividualConsumptionAccordingtoPurpose
CPI
ConsumerPriceIndex
HIES
HouseholdIncomeandExpenditureSurvey
INECV
InstitutoNacionaldeEstatísticaCaboVerde
INEPT
InstitutoNacionaldeEstatísticaPortugal
TA
TechnicalAssistance
IMF|TechnicalAssistanceReport–CaboVerdeConsumerPriceIndex|
5
SummaryofMissionOutcomeandPriority
Recommendations
1.AspartoftheworkprogramforthesecondRegionalTechnicalAssistanceCenterfor
WestAfrica(AW2)andinresponsetoarequestfromInstitutoNacionaldeEstatísticaCaboVerde(INECV),aconsumerpriceindex(CPI)technicalassistance(TA)missionvisitedPraiaduringJuly17–21,2023.
2.TheprimaryobjectiveofthemissionwastoassisttheINECVwithimprovingandupdatingtheCPI.Keymissionoutcomesinclude:(i)reviewandassessCPIcompilationmethods;(ii)discussthe
recentCPIcalculationissue;and(iii)developandagreewithINECVonaworkplantoguidetheauthoritiesonthewayforwardwithupdatingtheCPI.
3.CurrentCPIweightsarebasedonexpendituredatacollectedduringthe2015householdincomeandexpendituresurvey(HIES).ThesedataareoutofdateandthereisurgentneedtoupdateCPIweights.DatacollectionforanewHIESbeganinJanuary2023andwillcontinuethroughDecember2023.ThesedatawillbeusedtoupdatetheCPI.PreliminaryexpendituredataforQ1willbemade
availabletoCPIstafftobeginidentifyingnewitemsandclassifyingthedataaccordingtotheCPI
classificationsystem(ClassificationofIndividualConsumptionAccordingtoPurpose(COICOP),2018).
4.Overall,themethodsusedtocompiletheCPIforCaboVerdelargelyreflectinternationalstandardsandbestpractices;however,thereisscopeforimprovement.ManyofthemethodsusedreflectEuropeanpractices,thoughthesepracticesarenotappropriateforCaboVerdebecauseINECVdoesnothavethedatatosupportannualupdatesoftheCPI.Practices,suchasupdatingtheprice
referenceperiodeveryDecember,shouldbediscontinued.Updatingthepricereferenceperiodannuallycoincideswithupdatingtheweightsonanannualbasis(asisthecaseinEurope),butINECVupdates
CPIweightsapproximatelyevery5yearsandthepricereferenceperiodshouldbeupdatedaspartoftheinfrequentweightupdates.
5.Indexcalculationmethodsshouldbebasedonthemodifiedorshort-termformula.This
indexcalculationformula,recommendedinthe2020CPIManual,ismoreflexibleandallowstheoutletandvarietysamplestoremainrepresentativeandfacilitatestheintroductionofnewitems.Other
recommendationsforimprovementincludediscontinuingtheuseofthecarry-forwardmethod(repeatingthelastavailableprice)forthetreatmentofmissingseasonalandnon-seasonalitems;removingvariety-levelweights;andimprovingandaugmentingtherentsurvey.
6.INECVhasdefinedtherolling12-monthaverageastheheadlineorofficialindex.
The12-monthrollingaveragesmoothsthedata.Theheadlineindex(officialinflationrate)shouldnotbeadjustedorsmoothed.ItwasrecommendedthatINECVbeginusingtheannual(12-month)changeastheheadlineorofficialinflationrateforCaboVerde.
7.INECVidentifiedacalculationissuewiththeJanuary2023index.TheissueresultedfromacodingerrorrelatedtotheprocessofupdatingthepricereferenceperiodeachDecember.Because
INECVdoesnothaveaccesstothecalculationsystem,thedataweresenttotheInstitutoNacionaldeEstatísticaPortugal(INEPT)andtheissuewascorrected.Thecalculationerrordidnotaffectthe
disseminateddataforJanuary2023.
IMF|TechnicalAssistanceReport–CaboVerdeConsumerPriceIndex|
6
8.Tosupportprogressintheaboveworkareas,theINECVagreedtocompletethefollowingpriorityrecommendation:
TABLE1.PriorityRecommendations
TargetDatePriorityRecommendationResponsibleInstitutions
December2023
Reviewandconfirmtheexistingvarietysample.
INECV
December2023
UsingpreliminaryHIESdataattheitemlevel,identifynewitems.
INECV
January2024
Defineheadlineinflationastheannual(12-month)rateofchange
INECV
IMF|TechnicalAssistanceReport–CaboVerdeConsumerPriceIndex|
7
MainFindingsandRecommendations
A.CONSUMERPRICEINDEX
Weights
9.CPIweightsarebasedonexpendituredatacollectedduringthe2015HouseholdIncomeandExpenditureSurvey(HIES).Thesedataarenowoutdatedandshouldbeupdated.Outdated
weightscanintroduceabiasintotheindex.AnewHIESbeganinJanuary2023andwillcontinuethroughDecember2023.ThesedatawillbeusedtoupdateCPIweights.ItisplannedthatanupdatedCPIcanbeintroducedbyJanuary2025.
10.PreliminaryexpendituredataattheitemlevelshouldbemadeavailabletoCPIstaff.The
primarypurposeofreceivingthesedataisnottofinalizeweights,buttobeginidentifyingnewitemsthatwillbeincludedintheCPIbasketandtoclassifytheitemsaccordingtotheClassificationofIndividual
ConsumptionAccordingtoPurpose(COICOP)2018.Assoonasnewitemsareidentified,staffcanselectvarietiesforthoseitemsandbegincollectingprices.Thepriceswillbeusedtocompilereferencepricesforthenewitems.Thiswillcompressthetimescheduleforthereleaseofthenewindexandensurea
timelyrelease.
11.Currently,INECVusesCOICOP1999fortheclassificationofitemsintheCPI.Withthe
updateCPI,COICOP2018willbeimplemented.TherearesignificantchangesbetweenthetwoversionsofCOICOPandearlyaccesstoexpendituredataattheitemlevelwillallowstafftobegintheprocessofimplementingthenewerversionofCOICOP.
12.CPIstafflackexperienceandcapacitywithupdatingCPIweights.Forthe2015andpreviousCPIupdates,INEPTprovidedsupportandassistedwithupdatingindexweights.Fileswereprocessed
anduploadedintotheindexcalculationsystembyINEPTstaffinLisbon.INECVrequirestechnicalassistancetobuildcapacitytoensuresustainabilityandencourageINECVownershipoftheCPI.
13.Anelementaryindexisdefinedasthelowestlevelwithanexpenditureweight.This
generallycoincideswiththeitemlevel.INECVhasincludedweightsforairlineroutes.Eachairlinerouteisconsideredavariety.Varietiesdefinethepricecollected.Airlineroutesshouldnotbeweighted.Fixing
weightsforairlineroutesmakesitimpossibletoreplaceroutesthatdisappearandtoincludenewroutesthatmaybeintroduced.
ItemandVarietySamples
14.Whenanitemdisappears,thedatacollectorshouldconfirmwhetheritismissing
permanentlyortemporarily.Ifavarietyistemporarilymissing,itshouldbeimputed.Seasonalvarietiesthataretemporarilymissingshouldbeimputedineachmonththatthevarietyismissing.Forexample,ifmangoscollectedinagivenmarketaremissingduetoseasonalavailability,thepriceshouldbeimputedineachmonthuntilthemangoreturnstothemarket.Ifthemangoismissingforeightmonthsand
availableforpricinginfourmonths,pricesarecollectedforfourmonthsandimputedforeightmonths.
15.Forthosevarietiesnotsubjecttoseasonalavailability,itisexpectedthatthesenon-
seasonalvarietiesshouldbeavailableforpricecollectioneachmonth.Varietiesareoftenmissingduetoanumberoffactors,suchasstockshortages,etc.Fornon-seasonalvarieties,INECVshould
defineandadheretoamaximumnumberofmonthsthevarietycanbeconsideredastemporarily
IMF|TechnicalAssistanceReport–CaboVerdeConsumerPriceIndex|
8
missing.Ifthevarietycontinuestobemissingattheendofthethresholdperiod,datacollectorsare
instructedtoidentifyareplacementvariety.INECVcurrentlyhasathree-monththreshold;however,thisisnotfollowedbecauseitdoesnotreflectrealityinCaboVerde.Itisconsiderednormalforitemstobe
missinguptosixmonths.INECVshouldallowitemstobemissinguptosixmonths.
16.INECVusesseasonalwindowsforthecollectionofseasonalitems.Seasonalwindows
definetheperiodsthattheitemsareconsidered“inseason.”Pricesareacceptedinthesystemonly
duringthedefinedperiods.Seasonalpatternscontinuetovaryfromoneyeartothenext.INECVshouldeliminatetheseseasonalwindowsandcollectpricesforseasonalitemsassoonastheybecome
availableinsampledoutlets.
IndexCalculation
17.The2020CPIManualgivespreferencetotheYoungindex.Manycountriesdescribetheir
indexcalculationformulaasLaspeyres;however,inpractice,nocountrycompilesaLaspeyresindex.
CountrieseithercompileaLoweoraYoungindex.Whenexpendituredataareupdatedfortherelative
changeinpricebetweenthepriceandweightreferenceperiods,thisresultsinaLoweindex.Whentheexpendituresharesarefixedintheweightreferenceperiod,thisresultsinaYoungindex.TheYoungispreferredbecausetheprocessofpriceupdatingweightscanleadtoadistortionoftheweights,especiallyduringperiodswhenrelativechangesinpricebetweenitemsishigh.Takingchickenandbeefasan
example,ifthepriceofbeefincreases100percent,iftheexpenditurevaluesarepriceupdated,the
weightforbeefdoubles.Priceupdatingfixestheimplicitquantities.Theassumptionisthatthesame
quantityofanitem,suchasbeef,isconsumedregardlessofhowmuchthepricehasincreased.Thisisnotarealisticassumptionasconsumerswillswitchtothoseitemsthatarerelativelylessexpensivesuchaschicken.TheLoweindexdoesnotaccountforsubstitutionbetweenthepriceandweightreference
periods;whereastheYoungindexassumesthattherehasbeensubstitutionbetweenthesetwoperiods.CPIstaffwerenotawareifexpenditurevalueswerepriceupdatedornot.Goingforward,theYoungindexshouldbeusedtocalculatetheCPI.
18.ThemodifiedversionoftheYoungindexisrecommendedandreflectsbestpractice.WiththemodifiedYoungformula,longtermpricechangeiscalculatedbychainingtogethershort-termpricechanges.MathematicallytheYoung(direct,orlong-termformula)andthemodifiedYoungareidenticalandyieldthesameresults.ThemodifiedYoungisrecommendedbecauseitismoreflexibleandallowsforthereplacementofvarieties,outlets,andevenitems.ThemodifiedYoungalsomoreeasilyfacilitatesthetreatmentofmissingpricesandqualityadjustment.
TemporarilyMissingPrices
19.Forthemostpart,INECVusesrecommendedimputationmethodswhenpricesare
temporarilymissing;however,thepracticeofcarryingforward,orrepeating,thelastavailable
priceisused.Thecarryforwardmethodintroducesadownwardbiasintheindexandshouldbe
discontinued.Onlycontrolledorregulatedpricesshouldbecarriedforwardbecausethegovernment
announcesinadvancewhenacontrolledpricewillbechanged.Alltemporarilymissingprices,includingseasonalprices,shouldbeimputed.
PriceReferencePeriod
20.TheindexcalculationsystemupdatesthepricereferenceperiodeachDecember.Eachyear,thepricereferenceisupdatedandtheratesofchangeinJanuaryarelinkedontotheDecemberindex.Generally,thepricereferenceperiodisupdatedwhentheweightsareupdated.INECVdoesnot
IMF|TechnicalAssistanceReport–CaboVerdeConsumerPriceIndex|
9
havethedatatoupdateweightsannually.Weightsareupdatedinfrequently.ThispracticeofupdatingthepricereferenceperiodannuallybeganwiththelastCPIupdateandshouldbediscontinued.
21.TheimplementationoftheModifiedYoungindexeliminatestheneedforfrequentupdatesofthepricereferenceperiod.INECVplanstoimplementtheModifiedYoungformulaforthecalculationoftheupdatedCPIandthegoingforwardthepricereferenceshouldonlybeupdatedwhentheweightsareupdated.
RentSurvey
22.INECVcollectsrentpaiddirectlyfromasampleofrentalunits.AreasforimprovementwerediscussedandthereisneedforadditionalTAtosupportimprovingtherentindex.Therecommended
approachtocollectingrentisapanelsurveythatisrotatedonanannualbasis.Withapanelsurvey,a
representativesampleofrentalunitsissub-dividedintopanels.Eachpanelisbroadlyrepresentativeofthewhole.Whilethenumberofpanelsdoesvary,itismostcommontohavesixpanels.Pricesare
collectedfromonepaneleachmonth.Forexample,pricesarecollectedfrompanel1inJanuaryandJuly
ofeachyear;panel2inFebruaryandAugust,etc.Withannualrotationadefinedpercentage(20or25percent)ofthetotalsampleisrotatedeachyear.
23.Thepanelapproachhasafewadvantages.First,ingeneralrentchangesonceperyear,
althoughinCaboVerdeitisnormalforrenttoremainthesameforseveralyears.Becauseofthis,itisnotnecessarytocollectrentfromallsampledunitseachmonth.Thepanelapproachreducestheburdenonrespondents.Second,whencombinedwithannualrotations,thepanelapproachbettercapturesrent
increasesthatoccurwhentenantschange.Finally,samplerotationallowsthesampleofrentalunitsto
incorporatenewrentalunitsinatimelymanner.ThereissignificantconstructionofapartmentbuildingsinPraiaandotherareas.Annualrotationallowsthesenewunitstobeincorporatedintothesamplemore
quickly.
24.INECVlooselyfollowsaquarterlypanelapproach;however,itisnotstrictlyfollowed.A
moreformalapproachtothepanelsurveyshouldbefollowedandannualrotationshouldbeintroduced.GiventhenatureofrentinCaboVerde,thesampleshouldbedividedinto6panelsasitisnotnecessarytocollectrentfromsampledunits4timesperyearwhichwouldbethecaseifaquarterlypanelisused.
25.Whenusingthepanelapproach,therentcollectedfromonepaneliscomparedtotherentpricereportedbythatsamepanelsixmonthsearlier.Thisensureslikeiscomparedwithlike;
however,itresultsinasix-monthchange.TheCPIrequiresaone-monthchange,notasix-month
change.Toconvertthesix-monthchangeintoaone-monthchange,thesixthrootofthechangeis
calculatedandthenmultipliedbythepreviousperiodindexlevel.INECVwasnotsurehowthecurrentsystemcalculatestherentindex.TheauthoritieswillconfirmthiswhentheyvisitINEPTin
September2023.Changeswillbemadetoensurethepanelapproachiscorrectlyimplemented.
26.Currently,onlymarketrentsarecollected.Whilemarketrentsrepresentmostoftherentpaid,thegovernmentdoessubsidizerentforthosehouseholdsthatmeetcertaincriteria.Subsidizedrent
shouldbeincludedinrentsurvey.Ideally,thereshouldbeweightsforsubsidizedversusmarketrent,butthesedataarecurrentlynotavailable.Alternatively,thepricescollectedwouldreflecttheproportionofmarketversussubsidizedrent.Forexample,if85percentofrentpaidismarketrent,then85percentofthepricescollectedwouldbemarketrentpricesand15percentwouldbesubsidizedrent.
IMF|TechnicalAssistanceReport–CaboVerdeConsumerPriceIndex|
10
HeadlineInflationRate
27.Theheadline,orofficial,inflationrateforCaboVerdeisdefinedasthechangeinthe
12-monthrollingaverageindex.Underthispractice,eachmontharollingaverageofthelast12monthsiscalculatedandcomparedtotheaverageacrossthesameperiodinthepreviousyear.Thisrolling
averagesmoothsthedata.Aheadlineindexshouldnotbesmoothedoradjusted.Itisnotappropriateorrecommendedtousethe12-monthrollingaverageastheheadlineinflationmeasure.The12-month
rollingaverageindexisconsideredananalyticalindex,notanofficialmeasureofinflation.
28.Headlineinflationshouldbebasedonthe12-monthchange(comparingthecurrentmonthwiththesamemonthinthepreviousyear).Theheadlineinflationrateshouldfullyreflecttheprice
changesacrossthe12-monthperiodandnotbesmoothed.Monetarypolicydecisions,indexation,andtheofficialmeasureofinflationshouldbebasedonthe12-monthchange.Thepracticeofusingthe
12-monthrollingaverageshouldbediscontinuedassoonaspossible.
TechnicalAssistanceNeeds
29.INECVhasreliedheavilyonthesupportandassistanceofINEPT.Thissupportand
assistancewillendin2024.SeniormanagementandstaffnotedtheneedtobuildcapacityandassistwithupdatingtheCPI.INECVrequestedafollow-upmissiononcefinalexpendituredataareavailabletobegindevelopingtheweights.
RecommendedActions:
.Lowestlevelofweightshouldbetheitem(elementaryindexlevel).Varietiesshouldnothaveweights.
.Definetheannual(12-month)changeastheheadlineorofficialinflationrateforCaboVerde.
.ReturntousingafixedreferenceperiodanddiscontinuethepracticeofupdatingthepricereferenceeachDecember(annualchaining).
.ImplementtheModifiedYoungindexcalculationformula.
.Discontinuethepracticeofrepeatingthelastcollectedprice(carry-forward)forthetreatmentofseasonalandnon-seasonalmissingprices.
.Adjustthethresholdformissingnon-seasonalitems.
.Seasonalproducts–discontinuetheuseofseasonalwindows.
.Augmentthesampleofrentalunits–includingbothmarketandsubsidizedrent.
.Reviewhowrentiscalculatedbytheindexcalculationsystem.
.Implementthepanelapproach,withannualrotation,fortherentsurvey(moreformalizedthancurrentpractice).
IMF|TechnicalAssistanceReport–CaboVerdeConsumerPriceIndex|
11
AnnexI.OfficialsMetDuringtheMission
NameInstitutionE-mailAddress
JoaoCardoso
INECV
Joao.Cardoso@.cv
FernandoRocha
INECV
Fernando.Rocha@.cv
OlgaCruz
INECV
Olga.Cruz@.cvv
NatanielBarros
INECV
nataniel.l.barros@.cv
PauloPires
INECV
Paulo.Pires@.cv
AmeliaPina
INECV
Amelia.Pina@.cv
OtilioDuarte
INECV
Otilio.Duarte@.cv
JaquelineTavares
INECV
Jaq
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