中国城镇基本养老保险制度可持续性现状-SPRP-CN-Index

中国城镇根本养老保险制度财务可持续性争论TheFinancialSustainabilityofUrbanBasicOldAgeInsuranceSysteminChina中国社科院世界社保争论中心CentreforInternationalSocialSecurityStudies(CISS),ChineseAcademyofSocialSciences(CASS)2023年●北京负责人：郑秉文教授Dir.&Prof.:

ZhengBingwen2023年9月September2023〔一〕背景介绍：中国城镇根本养老保险制度改革三重任务叠加；ThehistoricalbackgroundofUrbanBasicOldAgeInsuranceSystemReform〔二〕问题表现：中国城镇根本养老保险制度可持续性现状的六个突出问题；Thefinancialsustainabilitystatusquoofbasicoldageinsurancesystem〔三〕收支猜测：2023-2050年中国城镇根本养老保险制度运行的猜测；Predictionoffundrevenuesandexpenditures：from2023to2050〔四〕阅历借鉴：欧盟国家公共养老金制度改革阅历；EUpublicpensionsystemreformanditsexperiences〔五〕政策建议：如何完善中国城镇根本养老保险制度；PolicyproposalsonimprovingUrbanBasicpensioninsurancesystem争论报告根本框架：五个局部OverallFrameworkoftheproject:FiveParts〔一〕中国城镇根本养老保险制度正处于待遇上调最快、财政补贴最多的历史时期；Thepensionsystemisintheperiodofrisingpensionbenefitsandsubstantialfinancialsubsidies★1.待遇上调很快：2023-2023年过去11年内养老金连年上调，从未连续，每年上调10%，全国人均退休金从2023年的每月714元提高到2023年的2100元，人均提高两倍多；★From2023to2023,thepensiongrowthrateiskeeping10percent,whichmaketheaveragepensiongrowingfrom714Yuanpermonthin2023to2100Yuanpermonthin2023.★2.财政补贴最多：过去11年也是财政补贴最多和增长最快的历史时期，从2023年的544亿元，增加到2023年的4716亿元，11年增加8.67倍。★Financialsubsidieshaverisedfrom54.4billionYuanin2023to471.6billionYuanin2023.一、中国城镇根本养老保险制度改革背景ThehistoricalbackgroundofUrbanBasicOldAgeInsuranceSystemReform〔二〕中国城镇根本养老保险制度处于三重任务叠加的巨大压力之中；Urbanbasicpensionsystemisunderthegreatpressureofthreestackedtasks中国城镇根本养老保险制度尚处于制度参数调整、制度构造改革、各子制度必需尽快建立的三项任务叠加和交错的巨大压力之中；★“制度参数调整”包括：退休年龄连续提高；降低社会保险费率；★systemparameteradjustment:Raiseretirementage；Reducecontributionrateofsocialinsurance；★“制度构造改革”指做实个人账户试点难以为继，如何完善个人账户以优化构造；★structuralreformofpensionsystem:howtoimproveindividualaccounts；★尽快建立子制度是指机关事业单位养老保险深化改革、建立养老保险基金投资体制和正常待遇水平调整机制等；★Theestablishmentofsomesubsystems:thenormalpensionadjustmentmechanismandpensionfundinvestmentsystemneedtobesetupassoonaspossible；一、中国城镇根本养老保险制度改革背景：三重任务叠加TheHistoricalBackgroundofUrbanBasicOldAgeInsuranceSystemReform〔一〕制度的收入力量低下〔Lowincomeabilityofpensionsystem〕★制度鼓励性不好导致缴费收入力量很弱，主要表达在：★Thenegativeincentiveofpensionsystem●实际费率低于规定的法定缴费率〔actualcontributionrateislowerthanthestatutorycontributionrate〕●费基小于真实费基(Thecontributionbaseissmallerthantherealcontributionbase)●用上一年社会平均工资作为核算基数(usetheaveragesocialwageoflastyearasaccountingbase)〔二〕抵挡老龄化自动平衡机制缺位〔Theabsenceofautomaticbalancemechanismtoresistagingpopulation〕★DB型现收现付的社会统筹局部尚未建立起参数自动调整机制★Theabsenceofautomaticadjustmentmechanisminthesocialpoolingsystem★DC型完全积存制的个人账户计发月数表并未随着预期寿命的变化进展动态调整★Thepensiondevisorintheindividualaccountsystemhasnotadjusteddynamicallywiththeincreasinglifeexpectancy二、中国城镇根本养老保险制度可持续性现状：六大突出问题TheFinancialSustainabilityStatusQuoofOldAgeInsuranceSystem〔三〕社会统筹局部可持续性问题日益突显Thesustainabilityofsocialpoolingisincreasinglyhighlighted★统筹层次低，成为吸入财政补贴不行估量的无底洞★Lowpoolinglevelrequireslargeamountoffinancialsubsidies；★较低的统筹层次不利于建立基金投资体制★Lowpoolinglevelcan’thelptosetupfundinvestmentsystem；

二、中国城镇根本养老保险制度可持续性现状：六大突出问题TheFinancialSustainabilityStatusQuoofOldAgeInsuranceSystem〔四〕个人账户制度设计存在先天缺陷Thebirthdefectsofindividualaccount★个人账户设计上的天生缺陷，使其需要财政的间接兜底★Theindividualaccountcannotlivewithoutfinancialtransfer参保人提前死亡的，个人账户资产可以继承，超过平均余命的长寿者可领取账户养老金直到死亡iftheparticipantsdieearlier,thefundassetsintheindividualaccountcanbeinherited.Andiftheylivelongerthantheaveragelifeexpectancy,theycanreceivethepensionbenefitstodeath.★个人账户长期以来难以做实★Itisdifficulttofullyfundindividualaccount；2023年底，空账规模已经到达30955亿元，而做实账户仅为4154亿元；Theemptyaccounthasreached3.09trillionYuanattheendof2023,andtherealaccountassetsare415.4billionYuan.

二、中国城镇根本养老保险制度可持续性现状：六大突出问题TheFinancialSustainabilityStatusQuoofOldAgeInsuranceSystem二、中国城镇根本养老保险制度可持续性现状：六大突出问题TheFinancialSustainabilityStatusQuoofOldAgeInsuranceSystem〔五〕治理体制不顺影响制度的财务力量DisorderManagementSystemaffectsfinancialcapacity★养老保险费双重征缴制度并存〔税务部门和社保经办机构〕，导致收入不能到位★Thecoexistofdoublecollectionsystemleadstoinsufficientincome〔bythetaxauthoritiesorsocialinsuranceagencyorganizations)★社保经办机构属地化治理不利于提高统筹层次★socialinsuranceagencyorganizationsareadministratedbythelocaladministrators,whichreducetheefficiencyofthesystem〔六〕根本养老保险制度一支独大财务压力巨大workersputexcessiverelianceonthebasicoldageinsurancegovernedbythegovernment三、中国城镇根本养老保险制度运行的猜测PredictionandEvaluationtourbanbasicOldAgeInsuranceSystemOperation〔一〕根本假设/Hypothesis1.城镇化率从2023年的53.7%逐步增长至2050年的75%。到2050年，人口城镇化率到达峰值；Urbanizationratewillgraduallyincreasefromthe53.7percentto75percentin2050anditpeaksatthatpoint.2.GDP实际增长率由2023年的7.5%降至2050年的4.3%，财政收入占GDP的比例由2023年的22.7%逐步提高到2030年的25%后保持稳定，因此财政收入增长率从2023年的10.15%降至2050年的6.28%；AssumingtheactualGDPgrowthratewilldropfrom7.5%in2023to4.3%in2050.ItisforecastedandassumedthattheproportionoffiscalrevenueaccountingforGDPwillgraduallyincreasefrom22.7%in2023to25%in2030,andthenwillremainstableafterwards,fromwhich,itcanbecalculatedthatthefiscalrevenuegrowthratewilldropfrom10.15%in2023to6.28%in2050.3.在岗职工平均工资增长率从2023年的9.36%降至2050年的6.71%；Itiscalculatedandassumedthatthegrowthrateofaveragesalaryofstaffinpostwilldropfrom9.36%in2023to6.71%in2050.三、中国城镇根本养老保险制度运行的猜测PredictionandEvaluationtoUrbanbasicoldAgeInsurancesystemOperation〔一〕根本假设/Hypothesis4.个人账户记账利率等于在岗职工平均工资增长率,将从2023年的10.01%下降到2050年的6.71%；ItisassumedthataccountinginterestrateofIndividualPensionAccountequalsthegrowthrateofaveragesalaryofstaffinpostinthepreviousyear,whichwilldecreasefrom10.01%in2023to6.71%in2050.5.从2023年开头提高退休年龄，女性与男性同时推迟退休年龄，女性工人每2年提高1岁，女性干部和全部男性职工每4年提高1岁，到2037年女性退休年龄为60岁、男性为65岁；Increasingtheretirementagefrom2023,todelaytheretirementageforfemaleandmaleatthesametime,increasetheretirementageoffemaleworkersby12monthsevery2years,andincreasetheretirementageoffemalecadresandallmaleworkersby12monthevery4years;by2037,theretirementageforfemalewillreach60yearsold,andtheretirementageformalewillbe65yearsold.6.账户基金制度累计结余的投资收益率为7%；AssumingrateofreturnofaccumulatedbalanceofUrbanBasicPensionsystemis7%.三、中国城镇根本养老保险制度运行的猜测PredictionandEvaluationtoUrbanbasicoldAgeInsurancesystemOperation〔二〕城镇企业职工根本养老保险制度运行的猜测Demographicsofenterpriseemployees’basicpensionsystem★表12023-2050年城镇职工根本养老保险制度抚养比猜测年份201520182020202420302037204020452050抚养比1:3.11:3.41:3.61:3.71:3.41:2.91:2.61:2.41:1.8资料来源：精算团队供给的数据。★Table1DependencyRatioofenterpriseemployees’Pensionsystem〔predictionvalue,2023to2050,%〕年份201520182020202420302037204020452050DependencyRatio1:3.11:3.41:3.61:3.71:3.41:2.91:2.61:2.41:1.8三、中国城镇根本养老保险制度运行的猜测FinancialSustainabilityPredictionofEnterpriseEmployees’BasicPensionSystem★基金收入：持续增加，2023年以前基金收入增长速度保持在14%左右，之后基金收入规模扩张速度放缓，占当期财政收入的比重从2023年的21.02%上升到2035年的23.87%，之后缓慢下降到2050年的22.97%。★Revenue.Inthecalculationperiod,thefundrevenuewillkeepincreasing.Before2023,thegrowthrateoffundrevenuewillkeepat14%andthenthegrowthisslowdown.Fundrevenuewillaccountfor17%to24%ofhomochronousfiscalrevenue.Theratiowillincreasefrom21.02%in2023to23.87%in2035,andthengraduallydecreaseto22.97%in2050.★基金支出：2030年之前，基金支出占当年财政收入缓慢上升，之后制度赡养率上升并处于高位，基金支出规模开头扩大，其占当期财政收入的比例快速上升到2050年的24.13%。★Expenditure.Fundexpenditureswillaccountfor13%~24%ofhomochronousfiscalrevenue.Before2030,theratioincreasegradually.Andthenthedependencyratioisatthehighlevel,thefundexpendituresbegintoexpandandtherationwillincreaseto24.13%in2050.三、中国城镇根本养老保险制度运行的猜测FinancialSustainabilityPredictionofEnterpriseEmployees’BasicPensionSystem图12023-2050年城镇职工根本养老保险基金收支猜测

资料来源：依据精算团队供给的数据。Figure1FundRevenueandexpenditureofEnterpriseEmployee’sBasicPensionSystem三、中国城镇根本养老保险制度运行的猜测PredictionandEvaluationtoUrbanbasicoldAgeInsurancesystemOperation〔三〕机关事业单位根本养老保险制度运行的猜测PredictionandEvaluationtoGOPI((governmentorgansandpublicinstitutions)PensionSystemOperation★表12023-2050年机关事业单位在职人员猜测单位：万人分类20152020202520302035204020452050在职人数3791.03791.03848.34121.44173.64210.64228.84220.7退休人数1628.31729.11799.71898.51971.12107.62308.02550.7资料来源：张盈华，《机关事业单位“名义账户”制养老保险及其长期财务可持续性分析》，载《开发争论》，2023年第3期，第8页。★Table1DemographicPredictionofGOPI〔2023to2090,10thousand〕20152020202520302035204020452050Staffinpost3791.03791.03848.34121.44173.64210.64228.84220.7Retirees1628.31729.11799.71898.51971.12107.62308.02550.7Source:ZhangYinghua,NotionalDefinedContributionPensionSystemofGOPIandAnalysisonitsLong-termFiscalSustainability,ResearchonDevelopment,NO.3,2023:p.8.三、中国城镇根本养老保险制度运行的猜测PredictionandEvaluationtoUrbanbasicoldAgeInsurancesystemOperation〔三〕机关事业单位根本养老保险制度运行的猜测★表22023-2050年机关事业单位和企业的养老保险制度赡养率比较分类20152020202520302035204020452050机关事业43.045.646.846.147.250.154.660.4企业32.227.527.029.132.938.344.653.4结论：因机关事业单位招募条件较严格，要求应征者具备较高学历水平，机关事业单位的内部赡养率明显高于企业PredictionandEvaluationtoGOPI(governmentorgansandpublicinstitutions)PensionSystemOperation★Table2DependencyRatioofGOPIorUrbanEnterprisePensionsystem分类20152020202520302035204020452050GOPI43.045.646.846.147.250.154.660.4Enterprisesemployees32.227.527.029.132.938.344.653.4Conclusion：ThedependencyRatioofGOPIishigherthanenterprisesemployees’oldageinsurance.三、中国城镇根本养老保险制度运行的猜测PredictionandEvaluationtoUrbanbasicoldAgeInsurancesystemOperation(三)机关事业单位制度基金收支猜测/PredictionandEvaluationtoGOPI★基金收入：持续增加，各年基金收入占当年财政收入比在4-6%之间。2050年之前，机关事业单位在编人数扩增，基金收入规模扩张速度较快，占当年财政收入的比例从4%升至5.5%；★Revenue.Inthecalculationperiod,thefundrevenuewillkeepincreasing,butthegrowthratewillincreasefirstandthendecrease.Thegrowthrateoffundrevenuewillbeconstantat7%between2040and2046,anditwilldecreaseto6.8%in2050(seeFigure2).Besides,fundrevenuewillaccountfor4%~6%ofhomochronousfiscalrevenue.Before2050,theratiowillrisefrom4%to5.5%,after2050,itwillriseslightlyfrom5.5%to6%,primarilyasaresultofexpectationthatthepermanentstaffofGOPIwillincreasefirstanddecrease.★基金支出：先减后增，各年基金支出占当年财政收入比在4-9%之间。在2035年之前，延退政策抑制领取待遇人数扩增的速度，基金支出占当年财政收入比重下降；2035年之后，延退过渡期完毕，加之制度赡养率上升并处于高位，基金支出规模开头扩大；★Expenditure.Inthecalculationperiod,fundexpenditurewilldecreasefirstandthenincrease,whichwillaccountfor4%~9%ofthehomochronousfiscalrevenue.Thegrowthrateoffundexpenditurewillbeabout7%,andafter2034,theratewillincreasefrom8.1%in2034to11.4%in2041.Before2035,thedelayretirementpolicyrestrainsthegrowthinthenumberofbeneficiaries,andtheratiooffundexpendituretohomochronousfiscalrevenuedrops;after2035,thetransitionperiodofdelayretirementwillbeover,andthedependencyratiowillriseandremainhigh,thescaleofthefundexpenditurewillbeginto三、中国城镇根本养老保险制度运行的猜测PredictionandEvaluationtourbanbasicOldAgeInsuranceSystemOperation资料来源：依据精算团队供给的数据绘制而成。

Figure2ThefundrevenueandfundexpenditureofGOPI(%)图2机关事业单位基金收支猜测(%)三、中国城镇根本养老保险制度运行的猜测PredictionandEvaluationtourbanbasicOldAgeInsuranceSystemOperation★历史债务：即转轨本钱，是原有制度下所积存的养老金权益的折现值，包括“老人”的退休金和“中人”视同缴费的账户价值。各年分摊的历史债务占当年财政收入的比重逐年下降，大约每10年下降一个百分点；★HistoryDebtsofthesystem.ThatisTransitionCostofpensionsystemwhichequalstothecurrentvalueofthepensionrightsandinterestsaccumulatedundertheoldsystem,includingtwopartsofthe“oldworkers”pensionexpenditureand“transitionworkers”pensionexpenditurewhichiscorrespondingtodeemedcontribution.Thehistorydebtswillbesharedyearbyyear,whichdeclinesbyonepercentagepointapproximatelyevery10year.

Table3Theproportionofhistorydebtsinhomochronousfiscalrevenue〔in2023to2050,%〕图32023-2050年机关事业单位制度历史债务占同期财政收入的比重样本国家：德国、瑞典、法国和西班牙SampleCountries:Sweden、Germany、FranceandSpain〔1〕政府负责的DB制度待遇水平将合理下降PensionBenefitsofDBplanwillreducegradually〔2〕提高法定退休年龄，渐渐实现男女同龄退休Raiseretirementage,graduallyrealizingtheequalretirementageofmenandfemale〔3〕建立奖惩机制，通过惩办提前退休、嘉奖延迟退休，充分发挥人力资本作用。EstablishtheRewardsandPunishmentsMechanismlinkedwithlegalRetirementAge〔4〕运用精算技术修正制度参数，双重约束下引入人口老龄化因子建立财务自我反响机制，增加财务可持续EstablishFinancialBalanceMechanismviaintroducingtheagingpopulationfactor〔5〕发挥市场机制作用，逐步从单一的公共养老金制度模式向多层次养老保险制度体系迈进Makefulluseofmarketmechanismtopushthepensionsystemfromasinglemodetomultiple-levelpensionsystem

四、欧盟国家公共养老金制度改革的阅历借鉴EUPublicPensionSystemReformandItsExperiences〔1〕降低社会保险费率，合理确定缴费基数Reduce