2023高考英语真题阅读精读含答案

2023高考英语真题阅读精读含答案本文是说明文。没有人是一座孤岛，文章陈述了“群体智慧”效应。实验表明，在某些情况下大量独立估计的平均值可能是相当准确的。DOnMarch7,1907,theEnglish

statistician

FrancisGaltonpublishedapaperwhich

illustrated

what

hascometobeknownasthe“wisdomofcrowds”effect.Theexperimentof

estimation

heconductedshowedthatinsomecases,the

average

ofalargenumberof

independentestimates

couldbequiteaccurate.Thiseffect

capitalizeson

thefactthatwhenpeople

makeerrors,thoseerrorsaren’talwaysthesame.Somepeoplewilltendto

overestimate,andsometo

underestimate.Whenenoughoftheseerrorsareaveragedtogether,they

cancel

eachotherout,resultingina

moreaccurateestimate.Ifpeoplearesimilarandtendtomakethesameerrors,thentheirerrorswon’tcanceleachotherout.Inmoretechnicalterms,thewisdomofcrowdsrequiresthatpeople’sestimatesbeindependent.Ifforwhateverreasons,people’serrorsbecome

correlated

ordependent,theaccuracyoftheestimatewillgodown.ButanewstudyledbyJoaquinNavajasofferedaninteresting

twist

(转折)onthisclassicphenomenon.Thekeyfindingofthestudywasthatwhencrowdswerefurtherdividedintosmallergroupsthatwereallowedtohaveadiscussion,theaveragesfromthesegroupsweremoreaccuratethanthosefromanequalnumberofindependentindividuals.Forinstance,theaverage

obtained

fromtheestimatesoffourdiscussiongroupsoffivewassignificantlymoreaccuratethantheaverageobtainedfrom20independentindividuals.Inafollow-upstudywith100universitystudents,theresearcherstriedtogetabettersenseofwhatthegroupmembersactuallydidintheirdiscussion.Didtheytendtogowiththosemostconfidentabouttheirestimates?Didtheyfollowthoseleastwillingtochangetheirminds?Thishappenedsomeofthetime,butitwasn’tthe

dominantresponse.Mostfrequently,thegroupsreportedthatthey“sharedargumentsandreasonedtogether.”Somehow,theseargumentsandreasoningresultedina

globalreductioninerror.AlthoughthestudiesledbyNavajashavelimitationsandmanyquestionsremainthe

potentialimplications

forgroupdiscussionand

decision-making

areenormous.12.Whatisparagraph2ofthetextmainlyabout?A.Themethodsofestimation.B.Theunderlyinglogicoftheeffect.C.Thecausesofpeople’serrors.D.ThedesignofGalton’sexperiment.13.Navajas’studyfoundthattheaverageaccuracycouldincreaseevenif________.A.thecrowdswererelativelysmallB.therewereoccasionalunderestimatesC.individualsdidnotcommunicateD.estimateswerenotfullyindependent14.Whatdidthefollow-upstudyfocuson?A.Thesizeofthegroups.B.Thedominantmembers.C.Thediscussionprocess.D.Theindividualestimates.15.Whatistheauthor’sattitudetowardNavajas’studies?A.Unclear.B.Dismissive.C.Doubtful.D.Approving.BDCDBewareoftheTwo-CoffeeTippingPoint健康喝咖啡的“临界点”，你知道吗？Weareanationoffully-fledgedcoffeeaddicts,consumingapproximately98millioncupsperday,accordingtotheBritishCoffeeAssociation.Butweforgetthat,fundamentally,caffeineisafairlypowerfulstimulant:itmakesyoufeelmoreawakeandfocused,buttoomuchcanpotentiallyleaveyouinananxiousspiral.AsmycolleagueBryonyGordonhaswritten,"coffeeisessentiallypanicjuice".Whichgoestoshowthat,clearly,ifyouarepronetoanxiety,coffeeisnotthedrinkyoushouldturntotocalmdown.Whydoesthishappen?"Caffeineblocksadenosinereceptors(whichpromotesleep),whichincreasestheproductionof

dopamine,

noradrenaline

and

glutamate

neurotransmittersthatplayaroleincognitivefunction,"explainsClareThornton-Wood,a

dietician

andBritishDieteticsAssociation(BDA)spokesperson."Thatmakesyoumore

alert

andincreasesyourbloodpressureandheartrate.Inmanycases,thisisbeneficial."That'swhycoffee

boosts

yourmoodandhelpsyouconcentrate.Butthere'satippingpoint."Thenegativeimpactsofcaffeinearecausedwhenthiseffectgoestoofarandpromotesanxiety,"shesays.Thereisnoclearreasonwhydrinkingtwocupsofcoffeeseemstotipsomeofusovertheedge,whileotherscaneasilytoleratefourorfivecups.Geneticsplayarole,andgenerallyyourcaffeinetoleranceisgreaterifyouareheavier,saysThornton-Wood."Onlysomepeoplearesusceptibletotheeffectsofcaffeine;ifyouaremoreanxiousinanycase,you'reprobablymoresusceptible."Toomuchcaffeineleavesyou"feelingrestless,nervous,notbeingabletosleep,feelingnauseous,havingaheadacheandgeneralanxiety",saysThornton-Wood.Theformalclassificationforthisgroupofsymptomsis"caffeine-inducedanxiety",whichisactually"arecogniseddisorderintheDSM-5–theDiagnosticandStatisticalManualofMentalDisorders,"shesays.Thegoodnewsisthatresearchshowsacoffeehabitcanhavesignificantbenefitsforphysicalhealth.A2021studypublishedinthejournalPLOSMedicinefoundthatmoderatecaffeineintakecutstheriskofastrokebyalmostathirdandthatofdementiabyaquarter.AnothermajorstudyfromscientistsattheUniversitiesofSouthamptonandEdinburghfoundthattwocupsofcoffeeperdayreducestheriskoflivercancerbyathird.Thesebenefitsareallassociatedwitha"moderate"caffeineintakeofroughlyonetofourcoffeesperday–drinkingfiveormorecanhaveadversehealtheffects.Andyet,forsome,drinkingmorethanonecup(orinsomecases,anyatall)canwreakhavoc.Thereisnogoldenruleforwhenyoushoulddrinkcoffeeinordertoenjoythebuzzandskipthejitters."Italldependsonthedoseofcaffeineinyourcoffeeandhowclosetogetheryou'rehavingthem,"saysThornton-Wood."It'spersonaltoyou.Everybody'sdifferent."Howmuchyoushoulddrinkisamorecomplicatedquestion.While400mgof

caffeine

perdayistherecommendedlimit(200mgforpregnantwomen),theamountofcaffeineinvarioushigh-streetcoffeesvarieswildly,whichcanmakeitdifficulttokeeptrackofyourconsumption.Thevariationsarenotonl