2022年新能源汽车行业深度分析：11月电车销量超预期年末有望再创新高

新能源汽车行业新能源汽车行业11月电车销量超预期，年末有望再创新高核心观点：比亚迪持续扩大出口打造第二增长极，新势力陆续出台优惠政策冲击环比+49.5%。零跑交付0.8万辆，同比+43.0环比+38%，主要系特斯拉本土产能释放叠加年末抢装带动销量回升。原材料价格波动。2022-12-12相对市场表现0%12/2102/2204/2206/2208/2210/22-8%-17%-25%-34%-42% 电力设备沪深300jichengwei@请注意，陈子坤并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。销量超预期，关注光伏需求正反馈拐点提前到来缩报告日期合理（元/股）亿纬锂能德方纳米伟明环保 5 （一）新能源汽车销量不及预期 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 8 7 8 9 一、国内整车：节前消费高峰与抢装高峰叠加，新能源车有望迎来年末销量新高+10.1%，同比+65.6%和+72.3%。随着疫后物流与供应链的持续改善、产业的复工复产以及新能源车出口放量，4-5月因疫情迟滞的产能与需求在6-7月中得以持续释5月下旬以来地方政府积极响应出台多项促进汽车消费的配套政策，极大地活跃随着中央疫情管控政策的宽松化与明朗化，各地防控处于简政放权试水期，经销商门店闭店情况或将明显减少，终端需求扩张有望长期向好。受益今年春节销售高峰201620172018201920202021202202017 2017 万辆和72.8万辆，环比-1.1%和+7.9%，同比+63.5%和+70.2%量为5.8万辆和5.8万辆，环比+34.9%和+52.6%，同比+163.6%和20162017201820192020202120220201720182019 201620172018201992020202120229876543210201720182019 +5.3pct。乘用车渗透率35.1%，环比+4.8pct，受益12月2018201920202021202220182019202020212022-2pct。A级纯电动车销量13.7万辆，同比+62.3%，环比+2.2%，销售份额24%，环环比+4pct。A级车产品投放加速，1季度重磅新车型比亚迪本田等日系车企带来的bz4X、e:NS1等新车型加速在华攻势，新老车型激发想家庭智能SUVL8于11月正式开启用户交付。叠加前期B级新车比超15%。表1：新能源汽车各级别销量（万辆）及结构对比销量（万辆）比比动A00A0ABCABC新能源乘用车比比动A00A0ABCABC2018.072018.082018.092018.102018.112018.122019.012019.022019.032019.042018.072018.082018.092018.102018.112018.122019.012019.022019.032019.042019.052019.062019.072019.082019.092019.102019.112019.122020.012020.022020.032020.042020.052020.062020.072020.082020.092020.102020.112020.122021.012021.022021.032021.042021.052021.062021.072021.082021.092021.102021.112021.122022.012022.022022.032022.042022.052022.062022.072022.082022.092022.102022.11其中ATTO3于以色列热销2333辆，成为以色列11月单车销售冠军。特斯拉11月交付量突破10万，10月底特斯拉车型全面降价叠加限时现车保险补贴有望刺激终端用期及新车型产能爬坡影响。公司组织架构改善提升效率，简化产品SKU迎合用户需创下单月最高交付纪录，理想L8开启交付后用户满意度超出预期。零跑11月交付猫双十一零跑大定贡献产品放量。当前受车型周期影响交付低迷，小鹏有望在年末再次冲击月交付1万台实现困境反转，而2023年各家新车型配100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%其他特斯拉蔚来小鹏零跑哪吒理想威马数据来源：乘联会、各公司官微、广发证券发表2：车企月度销量表现（万辆）及市场份额变化类型车企2022年销售表现历年销售表现市场份额本月销量销量本月同比同比20192020202120192020202122年新势力特斯拉10.065.589.7%58.5%0.013.847.30.0%11.2%14.4%11.4%蔚来汽车10.730.3%31.8%2.0%3.6%2.8%1.9%小鹏汽车0.610.9-62.8%33.2%%2.2%3.0%1.9%理想汽车11.211.5%46.6%0.03.39.00.0%2.6%2.7%2.0%哪吒汽车14.450.5%142.3%7.01.0%1.3%2.1%2.5%威马汽车0.02.9-97.0%-24.7%%1.8%1.3%0.5%零跑汽车0.810.343.0%176.8%0.04.40.0%0.9%1.3%1.8%其他0.33.8-26.0%120.6%0.414.749.80.4%11.9%15.1%0.7%新势力合计16.2129.837.2%61.1%6.630.193.76.5%24.3%28.5%22.6%比亚迪23.0162.3154.0%221.3%22.118.359.921.9%14.8%18.2%28.3%上汽通用五菱7.652.751.9%34.3%6.017.445.25.9%14.1%13.7%9.2%上汽乘用车2.620.0112.4%34.9%7.77.816.17.6%6.4%4.9%3.5%长城汽车12.0-20.3%5.3%4.05.713.73.9%4.7%4.2%2.1%广汽埃安2.924.191.3%128.2%3.36.012.03.3%4.8%3.6%4.2%奇瑞汽车21.1-20.2%171.2%4.8%3.5%3.0%3.7%长安汽车3.220.2397.0%206.0%3.4%2.4%2.9%3.5%吉利汽车3.528.4164.6%335.1%7.23.08.77.1%2.4%2.6%4.9%江淮汽车0.25.3-63.3%61.8%3.7%0.5%1.3%0.9%其他4.944.347.1%125.9%24.1%5.8%5.6%7.7%自主合计50.3390.595.6%129.2%86.773.3197.585.7%59.4%60.0%68.0%合资华晨宝马5.5123.6%30.0%3.0%2.4%2.1%1.0%一汽大众0.89.5-21.8%65.5%0.4%2.8%2.1%1.7%上汽大众9.0-20.1%84.0%3.9%2.5%1.7%1.6%东风易捷特8.891.5%122.7%0.3%0.5%1.5%1.5%上汽通用0.64.475.1%110.4%%1.4%0.8%0.8%东风本田0.22.5-29.4%37.1%%0.6%0.6%0.4%东风日产0.33.827.9%245.0%1.3%0.9%0.4%0.7%广汽丰田0.10.5127.7%-48.6%1.0%1.0%0.3%0.1%一汽丰田0.20.871.0%-22.0%%0.7%0.3%0.1%北京奔驰0.33.714.4%233.9%0.0%0.3%0.2%0.6%其他0.45.4-19.1%98.4%3.0%3.2%1.4%0.9%合资合计6.354.019.7%81.6%14.520.138.014.3%16.3%11.6%9.4%表3：重点车型月度销量对比（辆）000061表4：国内新能源乘用车月度销量排行（辆）车型销量车型销量AionS2648源AionS2957新能源蔚来车型销量车型销量Velite6AionS4071AionS4548蔚来AionS4630车型销量车型销量宏光宏光宏光AionS2724蔚来车型销量车型销量宏光宏光秦ModelY405秦豚其他252302车型销量车型销量宏光宋DM20722豚淋AionS淋其他2609122车型销量车型销量销量宏光豚豚豚豹其他423458平价技术全面落地销量继续引领全球。作为平价技术的磷酸铁锂体系已全面覆盖 表5：全球新能源汽车销量及动力电池装机量预测全球乘用车（万辆）YOY43.1%41.4%YOY422.0YOY48.4%474.9YOY46.1%43.8%其他地区乘用车（万辆）42.4YOY40.6%41.2%46.5全球新能源汽车（万辆）YOY41.2%43.1%4.2%40.6%全球乘用车需求量（GWh）45.345.0全球动力电池需求量（GWh）42.1YOY44.1%43.5%全球平均单车带电量（kWh）42.643.149.547.246.0法案落地开启电动车大周期辆，同比+23%，环比+24%；纯电占比62%，同比+2pct，环比+450 201920202021 963020192020202120192019202020219630欧洲11月新能源汽车销量创月度新高，环比强劲增长系特斯拉本土产能释放叠加中国出口带动销量回升。此外，德国、挪威、瑞典和Stellantis/名爵/奥迪本月注册量分别同比+301%/+12其中ModelY交付5753辆，同比+167%。福特/大众/Mini2021/1/12021/2/12021/3/12021/4/12021/5/12021/6/12021/7/12021/8/12021/9/12021/10/22021/11/32021/12/42022/1/12022/2/22022/3/12022/4/12022/5/12022/6/12022/7/12022/8/12021/1/12021/2/12021/3/12021/4/12021/5/12021/6/12021/7/12021/8/12021/9/12021/10/22021/11/32021/12/42022/1/12022/2/22022/3/12022/4/12022/5/12022/6/12022/7/12022/8/12022/9/12022/10/12022/11/102021/1/12021/2/12021/3/12021/1/12021/2/12021/3/12021/4/12021/5/12021/6/12021/7/12021/8/12021/9/12021/10/12021/11/12021/12/12022/1/12022/2/12022/3/12022/4/12022/5/12022/6/12022/7/12022/8/12022/9/12022/10/12022/11/1图17：2019-2022年欧洲八国纯电动车销量占整体新能源市法国英国德国意大利挪威瑞典葡萄牙西班牙欧洲八国纯电动车销量占比2019/1/12019/2/12019/3/12019/4/12019/5/12019/6/12019/7/12019/8/12019/9/12019/10/12019/11/12019/12/12020/1/12020/2/12020/3/12020/4/12020/5/12020/6/12020/7/12020/8/12020/9/12020/10/12020/11/12020/12/12021/1/12021/2/12021/3/12021/4/12021/5/12021/6/12021/7/12021/8/12021/9/12021/10/12021/11/12021/12/12022/1/12022/2/12022/3/12022/4/12022/5/12022/6/12022/7/12022/8/12022/9/12022/10/12022/11/14.7万欧元车型，个人补贴从6000欧元增加至7000欧元，企业补贴从4000欧元增加贴增加至4500/3000欧元；对于报废车辆，收入超过3万欧元人群BEV/PHE表6：欧洲八国最新电动车补贴政策（更新至2022.11.9）单车补贴（欧元）权限的仅为个人。元然终止电动汽车激励措施，如果公民能够证明购买是在截止日期之前完成的，他们将有资格在购买后长达6个月内获得奖碳排放＜1g/km碳排放＜50g/km2023年年底万报废旧车：2600报废旧车：5500碳排放≤20g/km报废旧车：75003000/2000欧元补贴，2023年收入低于3万欧元个人补贴增加至4500/3000欧金的一部分将用于长期租赁公司和公司车报废旧车：500021g/km＜碳排放<报废旧车：6000报废旧车：40002025年开启的中长期碳排法考核驱动车型周期上行，补贴退坡下纯电车型在德国等电车销售基本盘。国传统换牌影响，预计可平滑部分因年末抢装及补贴退坡带来的销量影响。全年来864202019202020212022201920202021202286420车型：Model3/ModelY持续领跑，MustangMac能够支撑新能源汽车生产的本土核心电池零部件供应链，法规分别于2025年及美国有自贸协定的国家或地区提取或加工，或在北美回收利用。关键矿物的占比在及伊朗。美国整体新能源汽车政策环境向好，中国供应链导入本土预期升温。参土化生产要求提升，当前车企以合资模式实现核心电池零部件本土生产，如美国本土特斯拉-松下、通用-LG新能源、福特-SKOn、Stellantis-三星SDI，及加拿大Stellantis-LG新能源。随着北美新能源汽车市场扩大及电池零部件本土生产要求提100000090000080000070000060000050000040000030000020000010000002019/1/12019/3/12019/5/12019/7/12019/9/12019/11/12020/1/12020/3/12020/5/12020/7/12020/9/12020/11/12019/1/12019/3/12019/5/12019/7/12019/9/12019/11/12020/1/12020/3/12020/5/12020/7/12020/9/12020/11/12021/1/12021/3/12021/5/12021/7/12021/9/12021/11/32022/1/12022/3/12022/5/12022/7/12022/9/12022/11/1同比（右轴）同比（右轴）140%120%100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%6000050000400003000020000100000ModelX销量（辆，左轴)ModelS销量（辆，左轴）Model3销量（辆，左轴)5%4%3%2%0%M3/Y贡献渗透率（右轴）特斯拉贡献渗透率（右轴)ModelYM3/Y贡献渗透率（右轴）特斯拉贡献渗透率（右轴)2021/1/12021/2/12021/3/12021/4/12021/5/12021/6/12021/7/12021/8/12021/9/12021/10/22021/11/32021/12/42022/1/12022/2/22022/3/12022/4/12022/5/12022/6/12022/7/12022/8/12022/9/12022/10/12022/11/1纯电动车注册量占比同比（右轴）表7：美国新能源乘用车月度销量排行（辆）trontronWrangler6000Wrangler3500Wrangler3500Wrangler3000Wrangler5500Wrangler2500起亚V起亚Wrangler3861Wrangler3146Wrangler2800Wrangler3000Wrangler22502018.012018.022018.032018.042018.052018.062018.072018.082018.092018.102018.012018.022018.032018.042018.052018.062018.072018.082018.092018.102018.112018.122019.012019.022019.032019.042019.052019.062019.072019.082019.092019.102019.112019.122020.012020.022020.032020.042020.052020.062020.072020.082020.092020.102020.112020.122021.012021.022021.032021.042021.052021.062021.072021.082021.092021.102021.112021.122022.012022.022022.032022.042022.052022.062022.072022.082022.092022.102022.1167.4%，同比+99.5%，环比+17100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%三元电池装机量（MWh）磷酸铁锂装机量（MWh）数据来源：高工锂电、中国汽车动力电池产业创新联盟、广发证券发展研宁德时代龙头优势有望持续扩大。据中国汽车动力电池产业创新联盟，11月宁优势有望持续扩大；比亚迪装机量8.94GWh，同比+118.6%，环比+15.5%，占比表8：国内动力电池企业装车量布局（GWh）企业名称装车量企业名称装车量