中国业管理及服务行业：1H23 业绩回顾-重置后重启（英译中）

PT(LoC)新老变更(%)公司名称Ticker3319香港1.332.02-34%CGSPT(LoC)新老变更(%)公司名称Ticker3319香港1.332.02-34%CGS6098香港-2%6.176.04ESEARCH1H23结果回顾-重置后重新启动摩根斯坦利亚洲有限公司++8522848-5497+8522848-7117+8523963-0385中国物业管理与服务+8523963-2567亚太地区4.836.10-21%A-living4.836.10-21%11.6213.02-11%51.2457.01-10%4.075.15-21%5.307.85-33%0.420.96-56%31.7643.12-26%51.8768.42-24%4.876.44-24%0.81-38%2.082.43-15%中位数中位数Average-24%-24%资料来源:摩根斯坦利研究。Note:关闭价格asof8月3120232M保利中国海OnewoPowerlong绿城金科服碧桂园服世茂服务KWGLiving中国中部物业服务外地产CM务新服务6049香港2669香港2869香港6098香港873香港生活1209香港2602香港9909香港1516香港9666香港3319香港3913香港9983HKOverview额定值交易货币当前价格上行/下行OWHKD51.2433.8551%OWHKD51.8736.4542%OWHKD11.629.3724%OWHKD31.7627.80OWHKD4.873.9224%HKD4.073.66HKD2.082.45-15%UWHKD5.3010.30-49%UWHKD6.049.02-33%UWHKD0.81-47%UWHKD4.835.00-3%UWHKD0.420.81-48%UWHKD2.08-36%市值平均每日交易量（百万美元)（百万美元)12,520.33,440.69.43,949.38.46,216.52.4471.03.22,174.64.01,254.21,049.85.16,489.9113.3735.91,501.7400.14.7477.40.9街道评级超重(%)97%96%100%100%50%64%36%30%63%0%33%0%25%等重(%)3%4%0%0%38%32%43%20%23%43%50%80%50%体重过轻(%)0%0%0%0%5%21%50%57%20%25%估价FY23Ea.254746FY24Ea.204979486FY25Ea.4978476股价性能2020202120222023YTDHSI2023年初至今(%)(%)(%)(%)(%)/9%-15%31%0%-25%-21%-17%105%-2%//8%-43%156%-42%-55%-39%-25%-28%-29%/-54%-47%-42%/-46%-60%-25%101%-11%-58%-54%/-55%-48%-46%29%-61%-29%-47%/-49%-46%-53%/-24%-39%-32%-7.1%MCRMixc生活方式服务1209香港保利物业服务6049香港中国海外地产控股有限公司2669香港Onewo2602香港PowerlongCM9909香港绿城服务集团2869香港Scale管理下的GFA净利润FY22/2023E/2024E/2025EFY22/2023E/2024E/2025E(百平方米)（百万元)299/378/453/5272,157/2,802/3,576/4,283576/721/849/9991,110/1,352/1,642/1,916320/418/521/6291,260/1,635/2,122/2,6261,028/1,186/1,412/1,6611,252/1,815/2,289/2,80830/32/34/36487/528/574/620384/456/531/610633/760/928/1,128增长渠道支持开发商/第三方/并购，1H23主要渠道2023/24/25E并购(%)(百平方米)42%/34%/24%父级5 /5/537%/63%/0%父级+第三方0/0/053%/38%/9%父级+第三方0/0/040%/48%/12%父级+第三方0/0/095%/3%/2%父级0 /0/015%/85%/0%第三方0/0/0成长概况GFA净增加额细分支持开发者/第三方/并购,1H23支持开发者/第三方/并购,2023E支持开发者/第三方/并购,2024E支持开发人员/第三方/并购，2025E（百平方百平方米方米）(百平方米)10/25/023/50/519/51/519/51/515/59/036/109/031/97/031/119/011/32/031/67/031/72/031/77/0-3/14/030/127/043/184/042/206/02/0/02/1/06/25/066/31/030/30/010/30/0支持开发者/第三方/并购,1H23支持开发者/第三方/并购,2023E支持开发者/第三方/并购,2024E支持开发人员/第三方/并购，2025E(%)(%)(%)(%)28%/72%/0%29%/64%/6%25%/68%/7%25%/68%/7%21%/79%/0%25%/75%/0%24%/76%/0%21%/79%/0%26%/74%/0%32%/68%/0%30%/70%/0%29%/71%/0%-22%/122%/0%19%/81%/0%19%/81%/0%17%/83%/0%82%/19%/0%81%/19%/0%77%/23%/0%67%/33%/0%19%/81%/0%16%/84%/0%19%/81%/0%21%/79%/0%项目类型住宅/非住宅，1H23(%)68%/32%41%/59%72%/28%84%/16%65%/35%80%/20%未来增长前景管理的合同总建筑面积/总建筑面积，1H232022-25E管理下的GFA复合年增长率(百平方米)(%)333.921%650.520%363.3 /25%1,022.730.86%414.5父开发人员Developer1H23合同销售排名（GFA）母公司开发商合同销售额，1H23母公司开发商1H23合同销售GFA占管理下GFA的百分比(百平方米)(%)华润土地（1109香港）7.02%保利发展（600048SH） 22%科利（688香港）48.12%万科（000002SZ&2202HK)Powerlong（1238 HK）414%3900香港143.4资料来源:Company数据,摩根斯坦利Research,(E)=摩根斯坦利Research估计。摩根斯坦利研究34MSunac服务1516香港金科服务9666香港碧桂园服务6098香港世茂服务873香港A-Living3319香港KWGLiving3913香港中国中部新生活9983HKScale管理下的GFAFY22/2023E/2024E/2025E(百平方米)244/286/311/336255/276/306/337869/966/1,026/1,066262/267/289/311546/605/660/710215/202/205/210157/177/193/212净利润FY22/2023E/2024E/2025E（百万元)763/651/728/767(318)/361/397/4613,711/3,993/3,738/3,735190/357/402/4131,840/1,564/1,573/1,646361/137/197/224563/416/390/409成长概况增长渠道支持开发商/第三方/并购，1H23主要渠道2023/24/25E并购(%)(百平方米)65%/12%/23%父级0 /0/043%/41%/15%第三方0/0/049%/10%/41%父级0 /0/023%/34%/43%第三方0/0/017%/28%/55%第三方0/0/012%/12%/76%第三方0/0/042%/42%/16%父级+第三方0/0/0GFA净增加额细分支持开发者/第三方/并购,1H23支持开发者/第三方/并购,2023E支持开发者/第三方/并购,2024E支持开发人员/第三方/并购，2025E（百平方米百平方米）（百平方米）(百平方米)17/3/037/6/019/6/019/6/06/-2/7 7/8/72/28/01/30/031/16/066/31/030/30/010/30/0-4/3/0-3/9/01/21/01/21/03/27/07/52/06/50/05/45/00/-10/00/-13/00/3/00/6/02/9/04/16/03/13/03/16/0支持开发者/第三方/并购,1H23支持开发者/第三方/并购,2023E支持开发者/第三方/并购,2024E支持开发人员/第三方/并购，2025E(%)(%)(%)(%)87%/13%/0%87%/13%/0%76%/24%/0%76%/24%/0%51%/-14%/63%30%/38%/31%5%/95%/0%4%/96%/0%66%/34%/0%68%/32%/0%50%/50%/0%25%/75%/0%451%/-351%/0%-58%/158%/0%5%/95%/0%5%/95%/0%10%/90%/0%12%/88%/0%10%/90%/0%9%/91%/0%0%/100%/0%0%/100%/0%0%/100%/0%0%/100%/0%18%/82%/0%20%/80%/0%19%/81%/0%16%/84%/0%项目类型住宅/非住宅，1H23(%)82%/18%82%/18%92%/8%53%/47%43%/57%46%/54%60%/40%未来增长前景管理的合同总建筑面积/总建筑面积，1H232022-25E管理下的GFA复合年增长率(百平方米)(%)263.0265.5916.07%260.76%575.49%205.4-1%167.7父开发人员Developer1H23合同销售排名（GFA）母公司开发商合同销售额，1H23母公司开发商1H23合同销售GFA占管理下GFA的百分比(百平方米)(%)融创金科集团(碧桂园世茂地产敏捷KWG华中地区（1918年000656SZ）（2007年香港）（813香港）（3383香（1813香（832香港）香港）34125港）港）3630493.90.72%0%0%资料来源:Company数据,摩根斯坦利Research,(E)=摩根斯坦利Research估计。M // )（天）（天）/3资料来源:Company数据,彭博社,摩根斯坦利Research,(E)=摩根斯坦利Research估计。摩根斯坦利研究56MVAS对非产权所有者的收入贡献，FY2VAS对非产权所有者的毛利润贡献，FY2/（天）（天）股份资料来源:Company数据,彭博社,摩根斯坦利Research,(E)=摩根斯坦利Research估计。StockTickery3319香港9983HK6098香港2669香港1209香港2869香港StockTickery3319香港9983HK6098香港2669香港1209香港2869香港9666香港3913香港2602香港6049香港9909香港873香港1516香港A-livingCCNLCGSCOPHCRML绿城服务金科服务KWGLivingOnewo保利物业服务PowerlongCM世茂服务Sunac服务骨料中位数平均值10,36914,03215,58317,58220,1638,1968,12761%70%70%50%45%58%-10%-13%-8%11%8%4%13%21%16%15%14%13%10%11%6%-1%8%-9%15,518yNt利润变化y2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025E1H221H232020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025E1H221H232022-25E复合年增长率1,7542,3081,8401,5641,5731,6461,05883943%32%-20%-15%5%-7%-21%-4%42762056341639040929020584%45%-9%-26%-6%5%-29%-10%2,8354,2803,7113,9933,7383,7352,5282,24170%51%-13%8%-6%0%-11%0%7049851,2601,6352,1222,62652272731%40%28%30%30%24%33%39%28%8161,7022,1572,8023,5764,2831,0101,351148%109%27%30%28%20%30%34%26%6758346337609281,12839743438%24%-24%20%22%22%-15%21%6461,077(318)36139746135277%67%-130%-213%-35%-47%-213%3236753612243156375%109%-47%-62%44%0%-80%-15%1,3251,5691,2521,8152,2892,80868593853%-20%45%26%23%0%37%31%6528461,1101,3521,6421,91662377530%30%31%22%21%28%24%20%31647948752857462025327479%52%2%8%9%8%8%8%6971,11035740241346522681%59%-83%87%3%-21%-51%29%6011,365763651728767560340123%127%-44%-15%5%-8%-39%0%8%8%10%摩根斯坦利研究78StockTicker2020A2021A2022AStockTicker2020A2021A2022A1H221H232020A2021A2022A1H221H23 3319香港9983HK6098香港2669香港1209香港2869香港9666香港3913香港2602香港6049香港9909香港873香港1516香港-1.5%-3.2%-1.0%-0.9%-1.1%1.0%1.7%-0.4%0.5%-0.6%-0.1%1.2%0.6%0.0%-1.1%-1.0%-1.0%-1.1%-0.6%1.2%2.7%-0.5%-0.7%0.8%-1.0%-0.3%A-livingCCNLCGSCOPHCRML金科服务KWGLivingOnewoSunac服务6.2%6.5%6.1%5.6%5.7%-0.4%0.3%-0.4%12.3%8.0%8.6%7.8%6.7%-3.5%-4.3%0.6%13.4%12.5%11.4%10.5%9.5%0.2%-0.9%-1.1%5.2%4.5%3.7%3.8%2.9%-2.1%-0.6%-0.9%11.8%9.9%10.0%9.1%8.0%3.2%-1.9%0.1%10.4%10.0%9.6%10.6%10.0%-0.4%-0.4%-0.4%7.5%8.1%11.2%9.1%10.3%-2.6%0.6%3.1%12.9%10.4%13.6%11.3%14.0%-1.8%-2.5%3.2%8.4%8.6%8.6%8.2%7.6%8.4%0.2%0.0%9.8%9.4%8.9%8.0%7.3%0.1%-0.3%-0.6%8.9%10.1%10.5%8.5%9.3%-0.9%0.4%12.2%10.5%18.4%13.5%12.5%-0.7%-1.8%7.9%11.4%10.3%11.8%10.7%10.4%-2.9%-1.0%中位数10.4%9.9%10.0%9.1%9.3%-0.7%-0.6%0.1%-0.4%-0.6%Average10.0%9.1%10.2%9.0%8.8%-0.3%-0.9%1.1%-0.3%-0.2%%。非经常性毛利（mn）StockTicker3319香港9983HK6098香港2669香港1209香港2869香港9666香港3913香港2602香港6049香港9909香港873香港1516香港A-livingCCNLCGSCOPHCRML绿城服务金科服务KWGLivingOnewo保利物业服务PowerlongCM世茂服务Sunac服务中位数32%12%16%11%10%Average31%15%非经常性毛利（mn）StockTicker3319香港9983HK6098香港2669香港1209香港2869香港9666香港3913香港2602香港6049香港9909香港873香港1516香港A-livingCCNLCGSCOPHCRML绿城服务金科服务KWGLivingOnewo保利物业服务PowerlongCM世茂服务Sunac服务中位数32%12%16%11%10%Average31%15%19%13%12%国有企业平均数26%22%27%20%20%POEs平均值17%11%32%9%8%DVAS毛利润占总额的百分比Ticker2021A2022A1H232023E2024E2025E2021A2022A1H232023E2024E2025E41821629%7%7%6%4%9983HK4222784280563936%27%8%5%6098HK1,09436267344%2%2%0%2669HK40748323353568182125%24%20%21%22%21%1209香港2593563563453419%7%7%6%5%2869HK58846932458353653125%20%21%20%9666HK445812624%9%3%2%3913HK33154939127%9%9%9%8%2602HK5984093162832768%6%5%4%6049香港3384012064144124219909香港13612212%0%0%0%0%873香港2392343216%3%3%1516HK955663262494038%4%4%4%3%2%24%10%7%7%6%4%21%12%8%8%7%6%16%15%12%12%11%10%23%10%7%6%5%4%非经常性CVAS毛利润（百万）StockTicker3319香港9983HK6098香港2669香港1209香港2869香港9666香港3913香港2602香港6049香港9909香港873香港1516香港A-livingCCNLCGSCOPHCRML绿城服务金科服务KWGLivingOnewo保利物业服务PowerlongCM世茂服务Sunac服务中位数5%3%5%3%3%Average8%6%7%6%6%国有企业平均数11%9%9%9%9%POEs平均值7%5%5%4%4%非经常性毛利润占总额的百分比2021A2022A1H232023E2024E2025E2021A2022A1H232023E2024E2025E1,23153728725322532%9%9%8%7%65543557907755%42%1,4907983084622962738%6%5%3%3%50858827161778494031%29%24%24%25%24%39758328057262368274953843079376979932%22%28%27%23%21%80234525343%6%4%4%33154939127%9%9%9%8%1,5531,3736761,4121,5811,76539%32%28%28%26%25%46462733864768074923%24%22%22%20%612212%0%0%0%0%99356137731531342%29%23%23%20%1,02354898141%7%6%6%5%5%12%12%15%15%22%22%12%12%DVASDVAS毛利润（百万）StockStockA-livingCCNLCGSCOPHCRML绿城服务金科服务KWGLivingOnewo保利物业服务PowerlongCM世茂服务Sunac服务中位数中位数AverageAverage国有企业平均数国有企业平均数POEsPOEs平均值非经常性CVAS毛利润占总额的百分比2021A2022A1H232023E2024E2025E2021A2022A1H232023E2024E2025E267179853%4%2%2%3%3%23333343820%4%5%5%5%3964352962292404%4%3%3%2%3%38826%5%3%3%3%3%2272152783415%6%5%5%5%5%692102332687%3%7%7%7%7%3576536417%3%9%3%3%--00-00%0%0%0%0%0%9559644821,0961,2981,48824%23%20%22%21%21%2262322693286%9%9%8%8%8%0000%0%0%0%0%0%75444933429430232%23%20%20%6848223940403%3%3%2%2%2%6%6%10%10%10%10%10%10%摩根斯坦利研究9M摩根斯坦利研究11M)以现金为基础的核心利润（百万）2022A1H232022A1H23StockTicker3319香港9983HK)以现金为基础的核心利润（百万）2022A1H232022A1H23StockTicker3319香港9983HK6098香港2669香港1209香港2869香港9666香港3913香港2602香港6049香港9909香港873香港1516香港3.82.79.5A-livingCCNLCGSCOPHCRML绿城服务金科服务KWGLivingOnewo保利物业服务PowerlongCM世茂服务Sunac服务7.554.0----27.820.38.7---0.14.7终止GFAunermgt(mnsqm)占管理下GFA的百分比7%2%6%0%0%0%0%3%2%5%9%7%0%0%0%0%3%5%3%2%骨料148.686.0中位数3%Average3%2%Average Ticker2021A202021A20 3,3211,2111,891 3,3211,2111,891 2,7561,474 0.50.71.00.81.10.90.61.41.30.6 /0.80.8 /1.30.31.5 0.30.70.81.31.20.40.41.51.72.01.1/ /716,34817,0369,632(7,761)摩根斯坦利研究//4.60.00.02.0/0.71.50.5-2.41.30.00.70.229%48%36%/59%0%7%40%42%0%21%8%9% /9%0%0%4%新签约第三方项目的年合同价值新签约第三方项目的年合同价值（十亿元人民币）StockTicker2022A1H232022A1H23年合同金额/上年度物业管理收入（%）A-A-livingCCNLCGSCOPHCRML绿城服务金科服务KWGLivingOnewoPowerlongCM世茂服务Sunac服务9983HK6098香港2669香港1209香港2869香港9666香港3913香港2602香港6049香港9909香港873香港1516香港骨料25.010.3中位数25%9%Average26%9% 8%6% 8%6%9%9%2%3%3%5%2412022A1H232022A1H23StockTicker3319香港9983HK6098香港2669香港1209香港2869香港9666香港3913香港2602香港6049香港9909香港873香港1516香港3.82.79.5A-livingCCNLCGSCOPHCRML绿城服务金科服务KWGLivingOnewo保利物业服务PowerlongCM世茂服务Sunac服务7.554.0----27.820.38.7---0.14.7StockTickerAverage终止GFAunermgt(mnsqm)占管理下GFA的百分比7%2%6%0%0%0%0%3%2%5%9%7%0%0%0%0%3%5%3%2%骨料148.686.0中位数3%Average3%2%摩根斯坦利研究15管理总建筑面积（百平方米）2020A2021A2022A2023E2021H232020A2021A2022A20管理总建筑面积（百平方米）2020A2021A2022A2023E2021H232020A2021A2022A20 4% 4% -4% 2%AverageStockTickeryMStockTickeryA-livingCCNLCGSCOPHCRML绿城服务金科服务KWGLivingOnewo保利物业服务PowerlongCM世茂服务Sunac服务3319香港9983HK6098香港2669香港1209香港2869香港9666香港3913香港2602香港6049香港9909香港873香港1516香港（百万）y净利润变动y2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025E1H221H232020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025E1H221H232022-25E复合年增长率1,7542,3081,8401,5641,5731,6461,05883943%32%-20%-15%5%-7%-21%-4%42762056341639040929020584%45%-9%-26%-6%5%-29%-10%2,8354,2803,7113,9933,7383,7352,5282,24170%51%-13%8%-6%0%-11%0%7049851,2601,6352,1222,62652272731%40%28%30%30%24%33%39%28%8161,7022,1572,8023,5764,2831,0101,351148%109%27%30%28%20%30%34%26%6758346337609281,12839743438%24%-24%20%22%22%-15%21%6461,077(318)36139746135277%67%-130%-213%-35%-47%-213%3236753612243156375%109%-47%-62%44%0%-80%-15%1,3251,5691,2521,8152,2892,80868593853%-20%45%26%23%0%37%31%6528461,1101,3521,6421,91662377530%30%31%22%21%28%24%20%31647948752857462025327479%52%2%8%9%8%8%8%6971,11035740241346522681%59%-83%87%3%-21%-51%29%6011,365763651728767560340123%127%-44%-15%5%-8%-39%0%骨料10,36915,58314,03215,51817,58220,1638,1968,12761%50%-10%11%13%15%10%-1%中位数70%45%-13%8%21%14%6%-7%8%Average70%58%-8%4%16%13%6%-9%10%摩根斯坦利研究17M我们的主要股票和变化。核心利润（百万）（旧）Average●●●●●●●●●●●●●●资料来源:摩根斯坦利Research,(E)=摩根斯坦利Research估计。MetricsMetrics参数基准CRMixcCOPHPPSOnewoGTSJINKSUNSPOWCMCGSSHMSA-LivingKWGLCCNL1209HK2669HK6049HK2602HK2869HK9666HK1516HK9909HK6098HK873HK3319HK3913HK9983HKGFA增长概况GFA量表增长渠道项目类型89899897888889877776767594675757546635父开发人员金融稳定和合同销售GFA2020202066555655收入质量来自社区VAS的收入贡献收入依赖(关联方交易)8878888997777667765654545服务质量54545534333333盈利能力净利润+收益复合年增长率97765634434Financials应收贸易款和应付贸易天数55544333433222激励7678789777566Total10089878484826161555452514343PEPE倍数30.018.016.015.013.04.54.04.04.08.08.05.05.0摩根斯坦利研究199%活 9%活 -70%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%资料来源:彭博社,摩根斯坦利研究。Note:关闭价格asCRMixc生活方式服务Onewo COPHS享受卓 越商业保利PM绿城服务A-生活中国中部新生活KWGLivingSunacServices世茂服务远洋服务PowerlongCMCGS金科智慧服务EverSunshineTimes邻里-90%-2% -17%-18%-18%-25%-29%-28%-29%-39%-46%-47%-48%-53%-55% -58%-64%-64%-70%-50%-30%-10%资料来源:彭博社,摩根斯坦利研究。COPH-7% -15%-7% -15% -21%-25%活方式服务保利PM金科智慧服务绿城服务永-29%-31%-29%-31%-32%-39%-40%-41%-42%中国中部新生活PowerlongCMTimes邻里卓越商业-43%-46%Sunac-43%-46%OnewoShimao服务A-Living-47%-52%-53%-54%-47%-52%-53%-54%生活CGS远洋服务-56%-70%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%资料来源:彭博社,摩根斯坦利研究。Note:关闭价格asCGSCOPH时代邻里 A-LivingSunac服务OnewoS享受PowerlongCMEverSunshineShimao服务卓越商业恒生指数绿城服务金科智慧服务KWGLiving华润Mixc生活方式服务远洋服务华中新生活资料来源:彭博社,摩根斯坦利研究。34%31%25%24%23%21%7%6%4%4%4%3%2%10%15%20%25%10%15%20%25%30%35%40% （百万）2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025E1H221H232020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025E1H221H232022-25E复合年增长率1,7542,3081,8401,5641,5731,6461,05883943%32%-20%-15%5%-7%-21%-4%42762056341639040929020584%45%-9%-26%-6%5%-29%-10%2,8354,2803,7113,9933,7383,7352,5282,24170%51%-13%8%-6%0%-11%0%7049851,2601,6352,1222,62652272731%40%28%30%30%24%33%39%28%8161,7022,1572,8023,5764,2831,0101,351148%109%27%30%28%20%30%34%26%6758346337609281,12839743438%24%-24%20%22%22%-15%21%6461,077(318)36139746135277%67%-130%-213%-35%-47%-213%3236753612243156375%109%-47%-62%44%0%-80%-15%1,3251,5691,2521,8152,2892,80868593853%-20%45%26%23%0%37%31%6528461,1101,3521,6421,91662377530%30%31%22%21%28%24%20%31647948752857462025327479%52%2%8%9%8%8%8%6971,11035740241346522681%59%-83%87%3%-21%-51%29%6011,365763651728767560340123%127%-44%-15%5%-8%-39%0%Ticker10,36915,58314,03215,51817,58220,1638,1968,12761%50%-10%11%13%15%10%-1%70%70%45%58%-13%-8%8%4%21%16%14%13%11%10%8%-3%8%10%Average9983HK2020A2021A2022A2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025E1H22 收入（百万） -1% -1% 23%29%20% 12%11% 4% 4%4% 2% 24%26%18% 15%11% 43%34%35%18%24%27%27% 36%85%44%31%24%77%31%34%28%66%AverageStockStock3319香港99833319香港9983HK6098香港2669香港1209香港2869香港9666香港3913香港2602香港6049香港9909香港873香港1516香港CCNLCGSCOPHCRML绿城服务金科服务KWGLivingOnewo保利物业服务PowerlongCM世茂服务Sunac服务骨料骨料中位数中位数Average摩根斯坦利研究21净利润净利润率y-y变化1H221H23净利润净利润率y-y变化1H221H231H22StockTicker3319香港9983HK6098香港2669香港1209香港2869香港9666香港3913香港2602香港6049香港9909香港873香港1516香港A-livingCCNLCGSCOPHCRML绿城服务金科服务KWGLivingOnewoPowerlongCM世茂服务Sunac服务1H2312.0%10.0%9.7%9.8%10.9%-6.5%-1.1%-1.9%-0.3%-4.4%-3.0%17.9%12.7%15.1%2.8%0.7%-2.9%-1.8%-0.4%-3.4%14.8%9.0%9.6%8.6%8.3%10.8%0.9%-3.3%-5.9%0.6%-0.9%-0.4%-5.8%-1.8%10.4%9.9%11.1%10.2%0.9%-0.3%-0.5%0.4%0.6%0.2%-0.2%17.9%19.9%19.9%6.4%7.1%-1.2%0.6%0.7%0.6%-0.3%0.8%6.7%6.6%4.3%4.3%4.7%5.0%5.8%5.3%0.0%-2.4%0.1%0.3%0.3%-2.6%-0.5%18.0%-6.4%7.0%6.7%7.1%13.7%7.5%3.5%-1.1%-24.4%13.3%-0.2%0.3%-7.1%-6.2%20.7%9.0%3.5%4.9%5.2%15.2%3.3%4.9%-0.5%-11.8%-5.4%0.4%-10.4%-11.9%7.3%6.6%4.2%5.2%5.7%6.0%4.8%5.9%-0.7%-2.5%0.4%0.4%-1.9%8.1%7.9%8.1%8.9%9.1%9.1%10.9%-0.3%-0.3%0.3%0.8%0.2%-0.1%0.2%19.1%19.7%21.5%5.5%3.0%-0.3%0.9%-0.1%-0.1%13.3%2.2%4.4%4.8%4.7%10.9%5.5%-1.6%-0.6%-11.1%2.1%0.5%-0.1%-4.6%-5.4%10.7%9.1%9.3%9.0%10.0%3.5%4.3%-6.6%-1.6%0.1%-0.2%-4.1%-4.0%中位数13.9%16.4%9.0%9.1%9.1%9.0%13.7%10.2%2.9%2.5%-7.4%0.2%0.0%-0.1%-4.4%-3.6%Average13.9%14.5%9.1%9.7%9.7%9.8%12.9%10.5%1.7%0.6%-5.4%0.6%0.1%0.1%-2.9%-2.3%M 操作数据2021A合同总建筑面积（百平方米）管理总建筑面积（百平方米）预留总建筑面积（百平方米）71 损益表2021A----- 现金流量表2021A 资产负债表2021A--7--0--0-- 关键比率2021A2022A2023E净融资现金流其他现金流量现金及现金等价物增加结转现金773---444----4-摩根斯坦利研究23M风险奖励图表0超重论文.2022-25E盈利复合年增长率为4%，行业.正在恶化的现金流。33%超重50%等重17%体重不足Contrarian:BULLCASEHKBULLCASE8.0x2024EP/E4.0倍2024EP/EE熊壳熊壳2.0倍2024EP/EM关键收益输入投资驱动全球收入暴露人工成本所有权定位MS估计与同意摩根斯坦利研究25MCCNL:财务摘要 操作数据2021A202合同总建筑面积（百平方米）管理总建筑面积（百平方米）预留总建筑面积（百平方米） 损益表2021A202--01-901--01-8-701-8 现金流量表2021A20 资产负债表2021A2022A2023-2-6----5-6-715-5-6-7-5-5-6-7-5---- 关键比率2021A2022A2023E---446664.0倍2024EP4.0倍2024EP/E超重论文我们认为该股缺乏重估的催化剂，与同行相比1)集中在河南省，这可能会限制未来的增长;风险奖励图表432125%超重50%等重25%体重不足Contrarian:BULLCASEBULLCASE9.0x2023EP/E基本情况基本情况熊壳HK$0.66熊壳2.0倍2024EP/E摩根斯坦利研究27M关键收益输入)投资驱动全球收入暴露所有权定位MS估计与同意MCGS:财务摘要 操作数据2021A2022A合同总建筑面积（百平方米）管理总建筑面积（百平方米）预留总建筑面积（百平方米） 损益表2021A2022A核心净利润（每家公司）----- 资产负债表2021A2022A2023E20-------------------- 现金流量表2021A2022A 关键比率2021A2022A-6,875股息支付率25%DPS16560股息率摩根斯坦利研究29M风险奖励-碧桂园服务控股有限公司(6098.HK)价格目标HK$6.04HK$6.04HK$6.04HK$62.60风险奖励图表)超重论文..超重等重体重不足63%23%BULL10x2024EP/E5x2024EP/E熊壳熊壳3倍2024EP/EM风险奖励-碧桂园服务控股有限公司(6098.HK)关键收益输入)投资驱动全球收入暴露MSALPHA模型所有权定位MS估计与同意摩根斯坦利研究31MCOPH:财务摘要 操作数据2021A2022A2023E合同总建筑面积（百平方米）管理总建筑面积（百平方米）预留总建筑面积（百平方米）------------------------------ 损益表2021A2022A2023E2024E-2-3-5-89-9---- 现金流量表2021A2022A2023E 资产负债表2021A2022A2023-------3------3------3------3------ 关键比率2021A2022A2023E--MHK$10.30HK$14.50风险奖励图表80超重论文.我们喜欢COPH在质量GFA方面的稳定增长，.公司基本面的改善体现在第三方加速.市场对国有企业名称的偏好100%超重0%等重0%体重不足Market分享:阳性世俗增长：阳性元25x2024EP/E10x2024EP/E摩根斯坦利研究33M关键收益输入投资驱动全球收入暴露MSALPHA模型VAS增长快于预期所有权定位MS估计与同意入Exhibit4CRML:FinancialSummary(Rmbmn)摩根斯坦利研究35M风险奖励-华润混合生活方式服务(1109.HK)风险奖励图表超重论文.CRMixc是购物中心领域的市场领导者，并从.来自强大父母的CRMixc