ESG 电新 公用：BC路线成本高、难度大取代TOPCon路线成为未来主流的方向尚未明确

15Sep2023TheBCRouteisCostlyandComplex,andReplacingtheTOPConRoutetoBecometheFutureMainstreamhasnotbeenClear热点速评FlashAnalysis(PleaseseeAPPENDIX1forEnglishsummary)事件：隆基绿能董事长钟宝申于9月5日在公司半年度业绩说明会上宣布，公司已明确光伏行业未来的技术路线，表示在接下来的5~6年，BC电池会逐步取代TOPCon电池，成为晶硅电池的绝对主流。同时，提到了公司接下来的大量产品都会采用HPBC技术路线，消息一出就引起市场广泛热议。BC路线作为平台型技术，其转换效率略高于TOPCon。BC为背接触电池，是指将PN结和金属接触都设于太阳电池背面，电池正面采用SiNx/SiOx双层减反钝化薄膜，无金属栅线遮挡，正面具备更大的利用面积，继而达到提高转换效率。同时，BC的理论转换效率极限为29.1%，略微高于TOPCon的28.7%。BC电池外观上更具美观性，主要适用于屋顶、外立面等分布式场景。此外，BC路线属于平台型技术，电池类型包括IBC、ABC、HPBC（与P型结合）、HBC（与HJT结合）、TBC（与TOPCon结合）。氮化硅电解质层来钝化P+硼扩散发射极，在背面制备一层超薄氧化硅是其核心特点，利用量子隧穿效应，可允许多子隧穿而阻挡少子透过，并且可通过激光掺杂、高阻密栅、低Poly膜层和钝化膜层优化等手段进一步提升效率。根据CPIA预测，到2025年TOPCon、BC电池平均转换效率有望分别达到25.4%、25.6%，差距仅有0.2%。BC设备成本高昂，约是TOPCon的两倍，成为制约其规模化的核心原因。经典BC设备投资达到3-4亿元/GW。在叠层电池设备方面，由于TBC、HBC电池是TOPCon和HJT是在XBC基础上的的升级工艺，工序步骤将会增加，单GW设备投资额进一步加大到4-5亿元，此外，BC电池生产对新技术和新材料的要求较高，配套产业链尚不完善，且落地周期比较长，导致BC电池从研发到量产慢于其他路线。相比之下，从PERC技术转向TOPCon技术，现有P型电池产线还有70%左右可以兼容，每GW的改造投资额在5000-7000万左右。此外，新建产线单GW投资额在1.6-2.0亿元；随着产线工艺进一步的成熟，设备端的降本空间很大，有望在2023年普遍降至1.8亿元/GW以下。BC电池背面制备步骤繁杂且对工艺精准度的要求较高，导致其良率不及TOPCon。在经典BC电池的生产过程中，背电极的构型主要采用丝网印刷、激光刻蚀和离子注入这三种方法。激光刻蚀虽具有复合低、掺杂类型可控等优点，但其工艺难度大，成本高是当前的两大痛点。尽管丝网印刷工艺成熟且成本优势明显，但其容易导致电池表面缺陷，掺杂效果难以控制，需要经过多次丝网印刷和精确对准工艺，增加了工艺难度和生产成本。此外，由于BC电池主要利用正面进行光电转换，背面则产生电子空穴，因此对基材的要求较高，需要具备更高的少子寿命。目前，在BC电池产能成型的的公司中，产线良率最高大约为95%左右。相比之下，随着今年以来TOPCon电池配套技术成熟度与产业链完整度大幅提升，其产线的良率已从年初93-95%突破至当前的98%，收获市场广泛认可。BC电池顾及正面转换效率和美观性的同时，将牺牲部分“双面率”。高双面发电率被认为N型技术迭代的核心驱动力之一，当前TOPCon的双面率可以达到85%左右。虽然BC电池单面效率相对较高，但由于PN结和金属接触都设于太阳电池背面，对背面发电增益会产生较大影响，当前双面率只能达到50%左右，远不及TOPCon。总结：BC电池转换效率略微高于其他路线，但由于其制造流程、成本、双面率存在明显短板，很难形成规模效应，当前仍被市场看做是小众路线。目前，市场上采用BC路线的制造商并不多，比如TCL中环参股的MaxeonSolarTechnologies（IBC路线爱旭股份（ABC路线以及隆基绿能（HPBC路线以上企业主要依托其产品美观性仅在海外中高端分布式户用市场上赚取一定溢价，但其在央国企采购招标以及大型地面集中式项目中的表现远不及TOPCon，因此，BC技术短期内并不会对应用格局造成实质性冲击。此外，TOPCon产能落地势头强劲，随着配套产线成熟度提升以及降本进程加快，预计到23年底或24上半年将有400-500GW的TOPCon产能投向市场，同时根据中国光伏协会预测，到2030年TOPCon电池市占率将接近45%，远高于BC电池约10%的占比。所以，我们认为BC路线短期内很难替代TOPCon路线，成为光伏行业未来的主流技术。215Sep20232投资建议：建议关注积极布局TOPCon产业链一体化的国内头部光伏组件企业【晶澳科技】、【天合光能】等。风险提示：N型技术迭代和需求不及预期，效率提升进度不及预期，材料降本不及预，一体化产能落地不及预期，行业竞争加剧，原材料价格波动大，政策风险等。315Sep20233表1：2022-2030年各种电池技术平TOPCon单晶电池基少多投资设备低中高投资成本/GW度较大415Sep20234）（00公司公司新技术电池出货预计出货占比TOPConTOPConTOPConTOPConTOPCon表4：HPBC/ABC/IBC产能（GW）表5：HPBC/ABC/IBC产量（GW）002036111515Sep20235615Sep20236APPENDIX1Event:ZhongBaoshen,chairmanofLongiGreenEnergy,announcedatthecompany'ssemi-annualperformancepresentationonSeptember5thatthecompanyhasmadeclearthefuturetechnicalrouteofthephotovoltaicindustry,sayingthatinthenext5to6years,BCcellswillgraduallyreplaceTOPConcellsandbecometheabsolutemainstreamofcrystallinesiliconcells.Meanwhile,itismentionedthatthecompany'snextlargenumberofproductswilladoptHPBCtechnologyroute,andthenewshascausedwidespreadmarketdiscussion.Asaplatformtechnology,theBCroutehasaslightlyhigherconversionefficiencythanTOPCon.BCisthebackcontactcell,whichmeansthatthePNjunctionandmetalcontactaresetonthebackofthesolarcell,thefrontofthecellusesSiNx/SiOxdouble-layeranti-passivationfilm,nometalgridlineshield,andthefronthasalargerutilizationarea,soastoimprovetheconversionefficiency.Meanwhile,thetheoreticalconversionefficiencylimitofBCis29.1%,whichisslightlyhigherthanthe28.5%ofTOPCon.BCcellsaremorebeautifulinappearance,mainlysuitablefordistributedscenessuchasroofsandfacades.Inaddition,theBCrouteisaplatformtechnology,andthecelltypesincludeIBC,ABC,HPBC(combinedwithP-type),HBC(combinedwithHJT),andTBC(combinedwithTOPCon).TOPCon'scellstructureisN-typewafersubstrate.ThefrontsideusesaluminaandsiliconnitrideelectrolytelayertopassivateP+borondiffusionemitter,andthecorefeatureistoprepareanultra-thinlayerofsiliconoxideonthebackside.Thequantumtunnelingeffectcanallowmajoritycarriertotunnelwhileblockingthepassageofminoritycarrier.Andtheefficiencycanbefurtherimprovedbylaserdoping,highbarrier,lowPolyfilmandpassivationfilmoptimization.AccordingtoCPIAforecast,by2025Topcon,BCcellconversionefficiencyisexpectedtoreach25.4%,25.6%,thegapisonly0.2%.ThehighcostofBCequipment,whichistwicethatofTOPCon,hasbecomethecorereasonforrestrictingitsscale.ClassicBCequipmentinvestmentreached300-400millionyuan/GW.Intermsoflaminatedcellequipment,sinceTBC,HBCcellisTOPConandHJTisanupgradeprocessbasedonXBC,theprocessstepswillincrease,andtheinvestmentamountofsingleGWequipmentwillfurtherincreaseto400-500millionyuan.Inaddition,BCcellproductionhashigherrequirementsfornewtechnologiesandnewmaterials,assofarthesupportingindustrychainisnotwell-established,andthegroundingcycleisrelativelylong,resultinginBCcellsfromresearchanddevelopmenttomassproductionslowerthanotherroutes.Incontrast,fromPERCtoTOPCon,theexistingP-typecellproductionlineisstillabout70%compatible,andtherenovationinvestmentperGWisabout50-70million.Inaddition,thesingleGWinvestmentofthenewproductionlineis160-200millionyuan;Withthefurthermaturityoftheproductionlineprocess,thecostreductionspaceattheequipmentendisverylarge,anditisexpectedtobegenerallyreducedtolessthan180millionyuan/GWin2023.ThepreparationstepsofthebackofBCcellarecomplicatedandtherequirementsforprocessaccuracyarehigh,resultinginaloweryieldthanTOPCon.IntheproductionprocessofclassicalBCbatteries,theconfigurationofthebackelectrodemainlyadoptsthreemethods:screenprinting,laseretchingandionimplantation.Althoughlaseretchinghastheadvantagesoflowrecombinationandcontrollabledopingtype,itsprocessisdifficultandhighcostisthetwomajorpainpointsatpresent.Althoughthescreen-printingprocessismatureandthecostadvantageisobvious,itiseasytoleadtothesurfacedefectsofthecell,thedopingeffectisdifficulttocontrol,anditneedstogothroughmultiplescreenprintingandaccuratealignmentprocess,whichincreasesthedifficultyoftheprocessandtheproductioncost.Inaddition,becausetheBCcellmainlyusesthefrontsideforphotoelectricconversion,thebacksidegenerateselectronholes,sotherequirementsforthesubstratearehigher,andtheneedtohaveahigherminoritylifetime.Atpresent,inthecompanyofBCcellcapacitymolding,thehighestyieldoftheproductionlineisabout95%.Incontrast,withthematurityofTOPConcellsupportingtechnologyandtheintegrityoftheindustrialchaingreatlyimprovedthisyear,theyieldofitsproductionlinehasbrokenthroughfrom93-95%atthebeginningoftheyeartothecurrent98%,andtheharvestiswidelyrecognizedbythemarket.WhiletheBCcelltakesintoaccountpositiveconversionefficiencyandaesthetics,itwillsacrificepartofthe"double-sidedratio".Highdouble-sidedpowergenerationrateisconsideredtobeoneofthecoredrivingforcesofN-typetechnologyiteration,andthecurrentdouble-sidedrateofTOPConcanreachabout85%.Althoughthesingle-sideefficiencyoftheBCcellisrelativelyhighinwhichPNjunctionandmetalcontactarelocatedonthebackofthesolarcell,thepowergenerationgainonthebackwillhaveagreaterimpact,andthecurrentdouble-sideratecanonlyreachabout50%,farlessthanTOPCon.715Sep20237Summary:BCcellconversionefficiencyisslightlyhigherthanotherroutes,butduetotheobviousshortcomingsofmanufacturingprocess,cost,double-sidedrate,itisdifficulttoformascaleeffect,anditisstillregardedasanicheroutebythemarket.Atpresent,therearenotmanymanufacturersemployingtheBCrouteinthemarket,suchasMaxeonSolarTechnologies(IBCroute),AikoSolarEnergy(ABCroute),andLongiGreenEnergy(HPBCroute).Theaboveenterprisesmainlyrelyonthebeautyoftheirproductstoearnacertainpremiumintheoverseasmediumandhigh-enddistributedhouseholdmarket,buttheirperformanceintheprocurementbiddingofcentralstate-ownedenterprisesandlarge-scalegroundcentralizedprojectsisfarlessthanTOPCon,soBCtechnologywillnothaveasubstantialimpactontheapplicationpatternintheshortterm.Inaddition,TOPConproductioncapacityhasastrongmomentum,withthematurityofTOPConsupportingproductionlinesandtheaccelerationofthecostreductionprocess,itisexpectedthatbytheendof2023orthefirsthalfof2024willhave400-500GWproductioncapacityreleasedtothemarket,whileaccordingtotheCPIAforecast,by2030TOPConcellmarketsharewillbecloseto45%,muchhigherthanBCcells,whichaccountforabout10%.Therefore,webelievethattheBCrouteisdifficulttoreplacetheTOPConrouteintheshorttermandbecomethemainstreamtechnologyofthephotovoltaicindustryinthefuture.Investmentadvice:ItissuggestedtopayattentiontothedomesticleadingphotovoltaicenterpriseswhichareundertakingtheactivelayoutofTOPConindustrialchainintegration,including[JATechnology],and[TrinaSolar].Riskwarning:N-typetechnologyiterationanddemandislessthanexpected,efficiencyimprovementprogressislessthanexpected,integratedproductioncapacityislessthanexpected,industrycompetitionisintensified,rawmaterialpricesfluctuate,policyrisks,etc.8下下 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