APERC+能源转型期间的油气安全 -Oil and gas security during the energy transition

Oilandgassecurityduringtheenergytransition

APERCWorksho

ChrisDoleman,SeniorResearcher,APERC

Emergingtrends

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Energysecurityisnowatthecenterofenergypolicydiscussions

Monthlyfossilfuelpricesonanenergyequivalentbasis,1997to2022(USDperMMBtu)

Jan-1997Sep-1999May-2002Jan-2005Sep-2007May-2010Jan-2013Sep-2015May-2018Jan-2021

AsianLNGpriceNewcastleCoalBrentoil

Source:IMF,JOGMEC,EIA,APERCanalysis

•Pandemicrecoveryispromptingareboundinenergydemand

•Energysupplygrowthisconstrainedbyseveralcombiningfactors

•Russia-Ukrainianwarisreorganizingenergysupplychains

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SevereweatherisexacerbatingAPEC’senergysecuritychallenges

Source:MISO

•Extremetemperatureselevatedemandprofileswhilechallengingfuelsupplyavailabilityandreliability

•Stormsurgesdisruptingjust-in-timedeliveries,damaginginfrastructure

•Droughtsreducingfuelandcoolantavailability

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Governmentsareputtingenergysecurityintotheirownhands

•Prioritisationofdomesticenergyendowmentsfordomesticuse

•Energyexportbans:Indonesia’smonth-longcoalexportban(January2022)

•Australiaconsideringgasreservation

•Chinaincreasingcoalproductivecapacitytorelylessonimports

•Securingtheupstreamthroughdirectinvestments

•JapaninvestinginLNGprojects,andnaturalgassupplyintheUS

•Governmentsarerethinkingtheirlong-termenergyplanstoreducerelianceonoilandgasimports

•VietNamshiftinglong-termpowermixawayfromoil,gasandcoalandtowardsrenewables

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Governmentsareinterveninginenergymarketstoimproveaffordability

SingaporeLNGstoragecapacity(millionm3)

MonthlyIndonesiangasprice-withcontrolsversusspotLNGprices,USDperMMBtu,January2020toMay2022

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35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

Jan-20Jul-20Jan-21Jul-21Jan-22

SpotLNGOriginalPriceContractGaspolicyfixedprice

Source:GIIGNL,Platts,EMA,APERCAnalysisSource:MEMR,IMF,APERCAnalysis

•GovernmentsparticipateinorguideLNGsupplyprocurement;Singaporeischarteringstand-byFSU,FSRUcapacity

•Moreregulationtowholesaleandretailelectricitymarkets

•Pricecapsforwholesalenaturalgasandcoal(tointurnreducepowerprices)inAustralia

•RegulatorsmandatingtheweatherproofingofenergysupplychainsintheUS(withquestionableeffectiveness)

•SPRreleasestoputaceilingoncrudeprices

•Subsidies

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Long-termLNGcontractsareinsulatingsomefromhighspotprices

MonthlycommoditypricesfacingLNGimporters(USDperMMBtu),2020to2022

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40

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20

10

0

Jan-2020May-2020Sep-2020Jan-2021May-2021Sep-2021Jan-2022May-2022Sep-2022

LNGoilindex10to15%AsianLNGspotLNGHHindex

Source:JOGMEC,IMF,EIA,APERCanalysis

•Long-termcontractsareinsulatingincumbentimportersfromelevated,volatilespotprices

•China’sshort-termcontractflexibility,lowerdemandenabledittobalanceglobalLNGmarketsin2022

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Short-termfuelswitchingawayfromgasisdifficultinpractice

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80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

ElectricityfuelinselectAPECLNGimportingeconomies.2021and2022

20212022

20212022

20212022

20212022

20212022

20212022

20212022

China

Japan

Mexico

ChineseTaipei

Thailand

Singapore

Korea

Wind

Solar

OtherRenewables

OtherFossil

Nuclear

NetImports

Hydro

Gas

Bioenergy

Coal

Source:EMBER

•Technologicalcapacitylimitscurrentfuelswitching

•Sophistication,redundancyandreplacementincreasesfuelswitchingability,butdonotemergeovernight

•Governmentpolicycanalsoplayaroleinlimitingfuelswitching(forexample,coal-to-gasswitchingtargets)

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Bindingsupplyconstraintssuggestareturntotheboom-bustoilcycle

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Monthlyproducerpriceindexofoilandgasserviceinputs,2019to2022,100=Jan2019

Jan-2019Jun-2019Nov-2019Apr-2020Sep-2020Feb-2021Jul-2021Dec-2021May-2022Oct-2022

CementSteelpipeandtubeIndustrialsand

Source:BLS

•Capitaldiscipline,laborshortages,inputconstraintslimitingsupplygrowth,shiftingthemarginalsupplieroutofAPEC

•Adecadeofdemandgrowthandinelasticsupplycouldspellthereturnoftheboom-bustoilcycle

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Infrastructureconstraintscouldlimitsupplygrowth

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100

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LNGexportcapacitypotentialintheUS,2016to2030,Mtpa

201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030

Proposed

Under

construction

Source:EIA

•GrowinginterestinUSLNGexportsasEuropeshiftsawayfromRussianpipelineexports

•However,infrastructureandcapitalconstraintscouldlimitthesupplytothesenewLNGfacilities

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80000

70000

60000

50000

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30000

20000

10000

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Refineryproductconstraintscreatingavailability,affordabilityconcerns

China’sannualoilproductexportsandquotas,2019to2022(kt)

2020

2021

2022

2019

■Oilproductexports(lessfueloil)一Exportquotas

Source:Platts,Reuters,EGEDA,APERCAnalysis

•China’sexportquotascurbingsupply

•PhasedownofRussianoilproductexports

•Capacityreductionsduetoretirements,unexpecteddamagesandbioconversions

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DomesticImported

201020112012201320142016201720182019

Biodiesel

201020112012201320142016201720182019

Bioethanol

Biofuelmandatesarealoneinsufficientforimprovingenergysecurity

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500

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SupplyofbiofuelforblendinginPeru(thousandbarrels)

Source:EGEDA,Reuters,Platts

•Mandatesmaybesubstitutingoilsecurityconcernswithbiofuelsecurityconcerns

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Emergencyresponseprogramsareeffectiveatensuringenergysecurity

TEPCOforecastedandpeakdemand,March22to232022,(MW)

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40000

30000/以

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20000

22/03/20220:00

22/03/20228:00

22/03/202216:00

23/03/20220:00

23/03/20228:00

23/03/2022

16:00

HourlypeakdemandForecastedpeak

Source:TEPCO,GridMonitor,APERCanalysis

•Emergencyresponsemeasuresareveryeffectiveatensuringenergysecurity,includinggridreliability

•Japan’seffectiveemergencyresponsecouldbeablueprintforotherstoimitateatthegasandelectricretaillevel

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Short-termactionsareimprovingenergysecurity,butthesehavelimits

•Plentyofexamplesofshort-termactionsthroughputAPECthatarehelpingtheregionnavigateacuteoilandgassupplydisruptions

•Households,businesses,suppliers,andgovernmentsarecollectivelymitigatingtheeconomicimpacts

•However,constraintscouldlimittheseshort-termresponsesgoingforward

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Oilandgasdemandwilllikelyremainrobustthisdecade

APECtotalprimaryenergysupplybyfuelinCNoftheAPECOutlook8thEd.2020and2030(PJ)`

400000

350000

300000

250000

200000

150000

100000

50000

0

-50000

Otherfuels

Hydrogen

Electricity

Renewables

Nuclear

Gas

Oil

Coal

20202030

Source:APERC

•InCN,gassupplyrequirementswillgrowatenth,oilsupplyfallslightly

•Despitehigherproduction,oilandgasimportdependencewillremainelevatedandevengrowinSEA

•SupplydisruptionswillcontinuetoposearisktosomeAPECeconomies

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Recommendationstoimproveenergysecurityduringthisenergytransition

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Actionstoimproveenergysecurityforoilandgasusers

Demand

reductionviaair-sourceheat

pumpadoptioninselectAPECeconomies(bcm)

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2021

US

Canada

Source:OEE(2022a,2022b,2022c),Nature,CarbonBrief,APERCanalysis

•Investinelectrification,efficiencytoreduceimportdependence

•Considerinvestmentsinredundancy,sophisticationandreplacement

•Developshort-termdemandresponseprogramsattheretaillevel

•Diversifylong-termenergyandpowerplans

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Actionstoincreaseoilandgassupply

USweeklyfracfleetcount

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2014201520162017201820192020202120222023

Source:PrimaryVision

•Alleviateshaleservicebottlenecks:investinproductivecapacity,eliminatetariffsandresearchlaborbottlenecks

•Simplifythepermittingprocessandfrontloadinvestmentsinmethane,flaringandemissionreductions

•CommittoreplenishingSPRstoragevolumestoreducedemand-sideuncertaintyduringthetransition

•Winterisetheentiregassupplychainofproducer-exporters

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ActionstoincreaseLNGsupply,mitigatedisruptions

ActiveglobalLNGcarrierfleet,segmentedbyage,propulsiontypeandcontainmenttype

300

250

200

150

100

50

Under1010to1920to2930andover

Moss

Under1010to1920to2930andover

Membrane

SteamSteamreheatDFDETFDEX-DFME-GISSDR

Source:IGU,GIIGNL,APERCanalysis

•Signlong-termcontracts,investinupstreamLNGsupplychain,andpoolcollectivelybids

•EnableLNGreloadingatallimportterminals

•ExpandLNGstoragetanks

•InvestintheresiliencyoftheLNGshippingsupplychains

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Actionstoincreaseoilproductandliquidssupply

USoperablerefinerycapacity(kb/d)

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