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ISSN2707-1952
CONTENTS
INTERNATIONALCEREALPRICES 2
DOMESTICPRICEWARNINGS 3
WESTAFRICA 6
SOUTHERNAFRICA 8
EASTAFRICA 10
FAR
EASTASIA 12
EASTERNEUROPE,CAUCASUSANDCENTRALASIA 14
CENTRALAMERICAANDTHECARIBBEAN
16
SOUTHAMERICA
17
Pricewarninglevel:HighModerate[BasedonGIEWSanalysis]
Warningsareonlyincludediflatestavailablepricedataisnotolderthantwomonths.
Source:GIEWS,modifiedtocomplywithUNmap,2023.
BULLETIN
FoodPriceMonitoringandAnalysis
#6
12July2023
MONTHLYREPORTONFOODPRICETRENDS
KEYMESSAGES
刁InternationalpricesofallmajorcerealsdeclinedinJune2023.Seasonalsuppliesputdownwardpressureonbothwheatandmaizeprices,withwheatharvestsstartingintheNorthernHemisphereandmaizeharvestscontinuingintheSouthernHemisphere.Worldricepricesalsodeclined,amidsubdueddemandfornon-IndicariceandeffortsbyPakistantoattractexportsales.
刁InmostcountriesmonitoredbyFAO,domesticpricesofbasicfoodsinJune2023remainedabovetheiryear-earlierlevels.HighpricesofcoarsegrainspersistedinEastandWestAfrica,whileseasonalpressurecontributedtodeclinesinmaizepricesinSouthernAfricaandSouthAmerica.InEasternEurope,CaucasusandCentralAsiacountriesandEastAsia,amplecarryoverstocksandnewsuppliesfromongoingharvestsareexertingdownwardpressureonwheatandwheatflourprices.Meanwhile,inEastAsia,domesticricepricesweregenerallystableacrossthesubregionbutincreasedinmajorexportingcountries.Conflictandinsecurity,adverseweather,highpricesofagriculturalinputs,elevateddistributioncostsaswellascurrencyweaknessescontinuetobethemajordrivers.
Domesticpricewarnings
Argentina|Wheatflour
Ghana|Coarsegrains
Myanmar|Rice
Nicaragua|Redbeans
Pakistan|Wheatflour
SouthSudan|StaplefoodsSudan|Staplefoods
Zimbabwe|Fooditems
GIEWS-GlobalInformationandEarlyWarningSystemonFoodandAgriculture
INTERNATIONALCEREALPRICES
InternationalcerealpriceseasefurtherinJune
InternationalwheatexportpricescontinuedtoeaseinJuneasharvestsstartedinNorthernHemispherecountries.AmplesuppliesintheRussianFederationduetolargecarryoverstocksontopofnewharvestsupplies,alongwithafallintheexporttax,underpinnedan8.7percentfallintheRussianFederation(milling,12.5%)exportprices.ThecompetitiveRussianFederationpricesalsoputdownwardpressureonquotationsfromitsmaincompetitors,includingtheEuropeanUnion(France,grade1)andKazakhstan(milling,d.a.p.Saryagashstation)quotations,whichdeclinedby2.6percentand4.9percent,respectively.ThebenchmarkUnitedStatesofAmerica(USNo.2,HardRedWinter)declinedby5.2ercentmonth‑on‑month,asconditionsimprovedslightlyandharvestprogressaccelerated.
IncreasedseasonalsuppliesinArgentinaandBrazilcontinuedtoputdownwardpressureoninternationalmaizeexportprices.TheArgentina(UpRiver,f.o.b.)andBrazil(Paranagua,feed)quotationsfellby6.5percentand3.2percent,respectively,inJuneasongoingharvestsboostedsupplies,especiallyinBrazil,whereproductionisexpectedto
reacharecord.ThebenchmarkUnitedStatesofAmerica(USNo.2,Yellow,f.o.b.)maizepriceremainedstablemonth‑on‑month,onconcernsoverdroughtconditions.
TheFAOAllRicePriceIndexaveraged126.2pointsinJune2023,down1.2percentfromMay,butstill13.9percentaboveitsyear‑earlierlevel.PricesofdifferentricetypesshoweddifferenttrendsinJune.Exportquotationsofaromatic,glutinousandjaponicaricefellduetogenerallylowdemand,whileexportpricesofIndicaricefollowedmixedtrends.Forinstance,effortstoattractfreshexportbusinessloweredIndicaquotationsinPakistan,whileslowtradingactivitykeptlonggrainpriceslargelysteadyintheUnitedStatesofAmerica.Conversely,exportpricesincreasedinIndia,influencedbypublicdomesticprocurement,aslowstarttoKharifcropplantingsandreportsofadealbeingreachedtoexport1.0milliontonnesofIndianricetoIndonesia.AsianbuyinginterestalsounderpinnedThaiprices,whiletightsuppliesledtohigherquotationsof25%brokenriceinVietNam,despitegenerallylowdemandforexport.
Internationalwheatprices
230.00-13.2-19.9-44.9
f.o.b.,deep-seaports)
250
UnitedStatesdollarpertonneLatestPricePercentChange
Jun-231M3M1Y
450
aFr,274.410.2-9.4-33.6
EuropeanUnion(France),Wheat(grade1)254.73-2.6-12.5-37.6
200
Jun-21Sep-21Dec-21Mar-22Jun-22Sep-22Dec-22Mar-23Jun-23
Internationalmaizeprices
Argentina,Maize(Argentina,UpRiver,f.o.b.)237.05-6.7-20.7-20.7
260
240
it)ofAmerica(Gulf),Maize(US266.87-0.5-6.3-20.9
280Brazil(Paranagua),Maize(feed)234.27-3.3-19.4-27.0
UnitedStatesdollarpertonneLatestPricePercentChange
Jun-231M3M1Y
220
Jun-21Sep-21Dec-21Mar-22Jun-22Sep-22Dec-22Mar-23Jun-23
Internationalriceprices
UnitedStatesdollarpertonne
Thailand(Bangkok),Rice(Parboiled100%)
VietNam,Rice(25%broken)
India,Rice(25%broken)
UnitedStatesofAmerica,Rice(USNo.2,4%LongGrain)
LatestPriceJun-23
523.50
465.00
436.60
715.75
PercentChange
1M
0.4
1.6
5.0
-0.3
3M
7.5
9.8
8.3
-1.6
1Y
11.3
19.8
30.2
9.4
750
700
650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
Jun-21Sep-21Dec-21Mar-22Jun-22Sep-22Dec-22Mar-23Jun-23
FormoreinformationvisittheFPMAwebsitehere
2GIEWSFPMABulletin12July2023
DOMESTICPRICEWARNINGS
Countrieswherepricesofoneormorebasicfoodcommodityareatabnormalhighlevelswhichcouldnegativelyimpactaccesstofood
Argentina|Wheatflour
GrowthRate(%)
to05/23
Sameperiodaverage
3months
-3.7
2.0
12months
-0.5
0.2
Compoundgrowthrateinrealterms.
Refersto:Argentina,GreaterBuenosAires,Retail,Wheat(flour).
Pricesofwheatflourrosefurtherandsetnewrecordhighs
RetailpricesofwheatflourcontinuedtoriseinMaytolevelsmorethandoubletheiryear‑earliervalues,reflectinghigherpricesofwheatgrain,andcompoundedbyelevatedmillingandtransportcosts.Thiscontributedtoa13percentmonthlyincreaseintheretailpricesofbread.Ingeneral,pricesoffooditemscontinuedtorise,amiddifficultmacroeconomicconditionsandby6percentmonth‑on‑monthinMay2023,withtheannualfoodinflationrateregistering118percentatthenationallevel.Tocontainpriceincreases,thePreciosJustosProgramme,relaunchedinNovember2022,wasextendedtoend‑July2023,fixingthepricesof2000basiccommoditiesinsupermarkets,includingstaplefooditems.InMay,theProgrammewasrevisedtoallowfora3.8percentmonth‑on‑monthincreaseinprices.
Ghana|Coarsegrains
GrowthRate(%)
to06/23
Sameperiodaverage
3months
-3.2
3.8
12months
-2.1
0.5
Compoundgrowthrateinrealterms.
Refersto:Ghana,Accra,Wholesale,Maize.
PricesofcoarsegrainsfollowedmixedtrendsandremainedatveryhighlevelsinJune
Wholesalepricesoflocallyproducedmaizeandmilletwerestableordeclined,whilepricesoflocallyproducedsorghumshowedmixedtrendsinJune.Pricesofmilletwereupto70percentabovetheirelevatedyear‑earliervalues,whilepricesofbothmaizeandsorghumwereupto90percentabovetheirhighyear‑earlierlevels.ThehighcerealpricesaremostlyunderpinnedbythedepreciationoftheGhanaiancedi,whichwasequivalenttoGHS11.19/USD1inJune2023comparedtoGHS7.19/USD1inJune2022,aswellaselevatedinternationalcommoditypricesandtransportcosts.
Myanmar|Rice
GrowthRate(%)
3months
to06/23
7.3
Sameperiodaverage
2.2
12months
5.7
0.1
Compoundgrowthrateinrealterms.
Refersto:Myanmar,Yangon,Wholesale,Rice(Emata,Manawthukha-FQ).
DomesticpricesofriceincreasedfurtherinJuneandwereatnewrecordhighs
Domesticpricesof“Emata”rice,awidelyconsumedvariety,registereda17thconsecutivemonthofincreaseinJune,reachingnewrecordhighs,reflectingtightavailability,duetobelow‑average2022output,exacerbatedbyhighagriculturalinputsandtransportcosts.InearlyMay,CycloneMochahitthenorthwesternpartsofthecountry,causinglossestostandingcropsandhouseholds’foodreserves,andsupportedpricesintheseareas.Junepriceswerealmosttriplethealreadyelevatedlevelsofayearearlier.Domesticpricesofgroundnutsandotherpulses,importantsourcesofproteininthelocaldiet,havealsoincreasedsinceearly2022and,inJune2023,werebetween30and80percenthigheryear‑on‑year,andatrecordornear‑recordlevels.Similarly,pricesofawiderangeofimportedbasicfooditems,includingwheatflour,cookingoils,meatanddairyproducts,wereatrecordornear‑recordlevelsinJune2023.Theelevatedpriceswereunderpinnedbyreducedavailabilityinlocalmarketsfollowingbelow‑averagelevelsofimportssince2022,constrainedbythecountry’sgenerallylowimportcapacitylinkedtothesignificantdepreciationofthekyat(MMK).
Price
level:
warning
High
Moderate
FormoreinformationvisittheFPMAwebsitehere
12July2023GIEWSFPMABulletin3
DOMESTICPRICEWARNINGScont’d
Nicaragua|Redbeans
GrowthRate(%)
to06/23
Sameperiodaverage
3months
3.8
5.7
12months
2.0
0.3
Compoundgrowthrateinrealterms.
Refersto:Nicaragua,Managua(oriental),Wholesale,Beans(red).
PricesofredbeansincreasedinJunetolevels40percenthigheryear‑on‑year
WholesalepricesofredbeansroseinJuneforthethirdconsecutivemonth,underpinnedbystrongexportdemand,withthequantityofbeansexportedduringthefirstfourmonthsoftheyear13percenthigheryear‑on‑year.Despitethehigheryear‑on‑yearbeanproductionin2022,officiallyestimatedtohaveincreasedby2percent,pricesinJunewere40percentabovetheiryear‑earlierlevels,reflectingelevatedproductionandtransportcosts.ThiscontributedtohighbeanpricesinCostaRica,ElSalvadorandHonduras,themajorimportersofbeanfromNicaragua,wherewholesalepriceswereatleast25percentupfromayearearlier.
Pakistan|Wheatflour
GrowthRate(%)
to06/23
Sameperiodaverage
3months
-3.4
0.3
12months
1.3
0.2
Compoundgrowthrateinrealterms.
Refersto:Pakistan,Karachi,Retail,Wheat(flour).
PricesofwheatflourdeclinedinJunebutremainatveryhighlevels
Pricesofwheatflour,akeystaplefood,declinedinJuneinmostmarketsofthecountry,reflectingimprovedmarketavailabilitiesfromtherecentlyharvested2023crop,officiallyestimatedatanabove‑averagelevel.However,pricesremainatveryhighlevels,rangingfrom50toalmost90percenthigheryear‑on‑year,mostlyreflectinginflationarypressureandelevatedagriculturalinputandtransportcosts.
SouthSudan|Staplefoods
GrowthRate(%)
to06/23
Sameperiodaverage
3months
3.8
3.2
12months
7.2
0.4
Compoundgrowthrateinrealterms.
Refersto:SouthSudan,Juba,Retail,Sorghum(Feterita).
PricesofmaizeandsorghumincreasinginJuneatfasterratesthaninMay,reachingexceptionallyhighlevels,mainlyduetoinsufficientsuppliesandseveremacroeconomicdifficulties
Inthecapital,Juba,pricesofmaizeandsorghumcontinuedtoincreaseinJuneby13and11percent,respectively,asseasonaltrendswerecompoundedbyafurther,significantdepreciationofthenationalcurrencyvis‑à‑vistheUnitedStatesdollarontheparallelmarketinMay,fromSSP915/USD1inearlyMaytoSSP1000/USD1inlateMay.Pricesofcassava,importedwheatandgroundnuts,otherimportantstaplesinthelocaldiet,alsoincreasedatfasterratesinJuneby4–22percent.NominalfoodpricesinJunewereatexceptionallyhighlevels,withthoseofmaizeandsorghummorethantwicetheiralreadyhighyear‑earliervaluesandmorethan100timesthoseinJuly2015,beforethecurrencycollapse.Underlyingthehighfoodpricesareinsufficientsuppliesandthecontinuouslydifficultmacroeconomicsituationduetolowforeigncurrencyreservesandtheweaknationalcurrency.
Price
level:
warning
High
Moderate
FormoreinformationvisittheFPMAwebsitehere
4GIEWSFPMABulletin12July2023
DOMESTICPRICEWARNINGScont’d
Sudan|Staplefoods
GrowthRate(%)
to05/23
Sameperiodaverage
3months
0.6
3.0
12months
0.1
-0.4
Compoundgrowthrateinrealterms.
Refersto:Sudan,Al-Fashir,Retail,Sorghum.
Zimbabwe|Fooditems
GrowthRate(%)
3months
to04/23
19.7
Sameperiodaverage
3.3
12months
8.5
1.6
Compoundgrowthrateinrealterms.
Refersto:Zimbabwe,Mutare,Sakubva,Retail,Maize(white).
Pricesoffoodsurgingpasttheiralreadyhighlevelsduetotheongoingconflict
FoodpricesarereportedtohavesurgedinAprilandMayinseveralmarketsduetotradeandmarketdisruptionscausedbytheconflictthatstartedon13April2023.Forexample,pricesofsorghumincreasedby16and18percentinMayinElObeidandKadugli,respectively,amajorassemblymarketandamarketlocatedinaneasternsurplusproducingareas,whilepricesofmilletincreasedby20percentinAlFashirmarket,locatedintheGreaterDarfurarea,whereitisthemaincerealstaple.Thesesurgesoccurredagainstabackdropofalreadyhighcostsoffood,and,asaresultpricesinMayareupto54percentabovetheiralreadyelevatedvaluesofayearearlierdespitethefavourableoutcomeofthe2022croppingseason.AccordingtotheWorldFoodProgramme(WFP),thepriceofalocalfoodbasket,already28percenthigheronayearlybasisinMarch2023,isexpectedtoincreasebyafurther25percentintheleanseasonbetweenJuneandSeptember,iftheconflictcontinues.WFPhasprojectedthatthisincreaseinfoodprices,ifitmaterializes,willprevent18millionpeoplefrommeetingtheirbasicfoodneeds.Cerealpricesbegantofollowasustainedincreasingtrendinlate2017duetothedifficultmacroeconomicsituation,coupledwithhighpricesoffuelandagriculturalinputsinflatingproductionandtransportcosts.Heightenedpoliticalinstabilityandintercommunalclashesexertedfurtherupwardpressureonprices.
Zimbabwedollarlosessignificantvalue,drivingupinflation
Theannualfoodinflationrateincreasedto256percentinJune2023,morethandoubletheleveloftheprecedingmonth.Similarly,themonthlyfoodinflationratealsoincreasedrapidlyto104percentinJune,upfrom26percentinMay.Atthecommoditylevel,maizemealpricesrosesteeply,and,inHararepricesinJunewereabouteighttimeshigheronayearlybasis.Muchoftheincreaseintheprecedingmonthsisattributedtocurrencyinstabilityandweakness,amidbroadmoneyexpansionandhighcommoditypricesontheinternationalmarkets.Despiteseveralpolicymeasuresintroducedin2023tocurbpricerises,inflationhascontinuedtogrow,andthisishavingaseveredetrimentalimpactonhouseholds’purchasingpower,stressingfoodinsecurity.
Price
level:
warning
High
Moderate
FormoreinformationvisittheFPMAwebsitehere
12July2023GIEWSFPMABulletin5
WESTAFRICA
Pricesofcoarsegrainsfollowedmixedtrendsandremainedhigheronayearly
basisinseveralcountries
PricesofcoarsegrainsshowedmixedtrendsinMayandJune2023incountriesoftheSahelandalongtheGulfofGuinea.Seasonaldepletionofhouseholdstocksandconsequentincreasedmarketrelianceunderpinnedpriceincreasesinsomecountries.Inseveralcountriesofthesubregion,pricesofcoarsegrainswerewellabovetheiryear‑earliervalues.
InMali,wholesalepricesofmilletandsorghumdecreasedinmostmarketsinJune,reflectingadropindemandthatispartiallyduetotheendofinstitutionalpurchasesandagoodsupplyofriceandmarketgardenproducefollowingtherecentoff‑seasonharvests.Pricesofcoarsegrainsweregenerallylowercomparedtotheirveryhighyear‑earlierlevels,reflectingtheincreaseinyear‑on‑yearcerealoutputsin2022.InBurkinaFaso,wholesalepricesofsorghumandmilletfollowedmixedtrendsinJune.Pricesdeclinedinsomemarkets,partlyduetothedeliveryofhumanitarianaidforinternallydisplacedpersonsaswellasthesaleofcerealsfromnationalfoodreservesatsubsidizedpricesthroughso‑calledboutiquestémoins,asocialprotectionmeasureadoptedbythegovernment,in2013,toimprovecerealaccessforthemostvulnerablepopulations.Inmarketswherepriceswererising,themostpronouncedincreasewasrecordedinthemarketofDori,whichcontinuedtobedisruptedbyinsecurityandwherethepricesofbothsorghumandmilletrosebyabout7percentmonth‑on‑month.Acrossthecountry,pricesofcoarsegrainswerelowerthantheirelevatedyear‑earlierlevels,reflectingthehigheryear‑on‑yearcerealoutputs.IntheNiger,wholesalepricesofmilletandsorghumremainedstableorincreasedseasonallyinJune.Pricesofcoarsegrainswerebelowtheiryear‑earlierlevels,reflectingthesharpcerealproductionupturnin2022.InChad,retailpricesofmilletfollowedmixedtrends,pricesofmaizeremainedstableordecreasedandpricesofsorghumwerestableorincreasedinMay.Despitetherecentoff‑seasonharvests,cerealpricesremainedelevated.Pricesofmilletwerebetween4and12percentabovetheirelevatedyear‑earliervalues,whilepricesofbothmaizeandsorghumweregenerallybetween5and26percentabovetheirhighlevelsayearearlier.Thehighcerealprices
aremostlyunderpinnedbylowsupply,hightransportcostsandstronglocaldemand.InSenegal,nationalaverageretailpricesofmaizeandsorghumremainedstable,whiletheaverageretailpriceofmilletdecreasedslightlyinMay.Theaveragepriceofmaizewasclosetoitselevatedyear‑earlierlevel,whileaveragepricesofsorghumandmilletwere15and25percent,respectively,higheryear‑on‑year.Thehighpricesweremostlysupportedbyhighproductionandtransportcostsaswellasgeneralinflationarypressure.
InGhana,wholesalepricesofmaizeandmilletwerestableordeclined,whilewholesalepricesofsorghumshowedmixedtrendsinJune.Pricesofmilletwereupto70percentabovetheirelevatedyear‑earliervaluesandpricesofbothmaizeandsorghumwereupto90percentabovetheirhighyear‑earlierlevels.ThehighcerealpricesaremostlyduetopersistentinflationarypressuresfromthedepreciationoftheGhanaiancediandelevatedinternationalcommodityprices,andtransportcosts.InTogo,retailpricesofmaizeandsorghumwerestableorincreasedseasonallyinJune.Pricesofmaizeweregenerallyatorbelowtheiryear‑earliervalues,whilepricesofsorghumwerebetween3and13percenthigheryear‑on‑yearacrossthecountry,mostlyunderpinnedbylowsupplyduetohighfuelcosts.InBenin,retailpricesofmaizewerestable,whilepricesofsorghumexhibitedmixedtrendsinMay.Pricesofcoarsegrainswerenearorbelowtheiryear‑earliervalues.InNigeria,wholesalepricesoflocallyproducedmillet,sorghumandmaizeincreasedinmostmarketsinMayandwereupto31,36and43percent,respectively,higherthanayear‑earlier.WholesalepricesoflocallyproducedricegenerallyroseinMay,whilepricesofimportedricewerestableorincreased.Pricesofbothlocalandimportedricewerebetween30and46percenthigheryear‑on‑year.Theelevatedcerealpricesreflectmarketdisruptionsduetopoorsecurityconditionsaswellasincreasedproductionandtransportcosts.Inaddition,highfoodpricesweresupportedbyshortageofcashandthedepreciationofthenationalcurrency,inparticularontheparallelmarket.Foodinflationreachedanannualrateof24.8percentinMay2023.
WholesalepricesofmilletandsorghuminMali
CFAfranc(BCEAO)per100kg
Bamako,Millet
Ségou,Millet
Mopti,Sorghum
Sikasso,Sorghum
LatestPriceJun-23
23000.00
19000.00
24000.00
21000.00
PercentChange1M3M1Y
-13.2-11.5-36.1
-24.0-26.9-36.7
-7.7-4.0-27.3
-6.7-19.2-47.5
50000
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
Jun-21Sep-21Dec-21Mar-22Jun-22Sep-22Dec-22Mar-23Jun-23
FormoreinformationvisittheFPMAwebsitehere
6GIEWSFPMABulletin12July2023
WESTAFRICAcont’d
WholesalepricesofmilletandsorghumintheNiger
27000
CFAfranc(BCEAO)per100kgLatestPricePercentChange
Jun-231M3M1Y
37000
29000Tillaberi,Millet300000.09.1-6.3
Niamey,Millet280001.83.7-6.7
25000Maradi,Sorghum225000.04.7-10.0
Zinder,Sorghum250008.74.2-13.8
Jun-21Sep-21Dec-21Mar-22Jun-22Sep-22Dec-22Mar-23Jun-23
RetailpricesofmaizeandmilletinChad
CFAfranc(BEAC)perkg
N'Djamena,Millet
N'Djamena,Maize
Bol,Maize
Abeche,Millet
LatestPriceMay-23
318.50
327.00
255.00
275.00
PercentChange1M3M1Y
1.0-2.90.8
2.21.24.8
-1.9-1.9-20.1
-1.12.83.8
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
May-21Aug-21Nov-21Feb-22May-22Aug-22Nov-22Feb-23May-23
Techiman,Sorghum657.12-10.2-13.050.9
200
300
400
500
WholesalepricesofmaizeandsorghuminGhana
Ghanaiancediper100kgLatestPricePercentChange
Jun-231M3M1Y
800
700Techiman,Maize515.38-2.64.361.9
Accra,Sorghum450.000.00.068.7
600
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