可持续发展的绿色核算国际和世行经验-Sustainabi

GreenAccountingforSustainableDevelopment可持续发展的绿色核算InternationalandWorldBankExperience国际和世行经验MagdaLoveiSectorManagerEnvironmentEastAsiaandPacificRegionTheWorldBank1Outline提纲Introduction前言Internationalexperience国际经验TheWorldBank’sAdjustedNetSavingsmethodology世行经过调整的净储蓄方法AdjustedNetSavingsinAsia亚洲经过调整的净储蓄Lookingahead未来发展21–Introduction前言Assetaccountingforsustainabledevelopment可持续发展的资产核算3Aconditionforsustainabledevelopment可持续发展的一个条件Society’srealwealthisnotdecliningovertime社会真正财富是不随时间而下降的Realwealthconsistsof真正财富包括：Producedassets生产的资产(buildings,machines,vehicles,etc.)accountedforintheNationalAccountsOtherassets其它资产(expandingthemeasureofwealth)NaturalresourcesHumancapitalSocialcapital4Empiricalevidence:Theimportanceofhumanandsocialcapitalascomponentofwealth实例：人力和社会资本在财富中的重要程度5Empiricalevidence:Largedifferenceinthecompositionofnaturalcapitalacrosscountries实例：自然资本各国差异很大62–Internationalexperience国际经验Examplesofaccountingforassetdepreciation资产折旧核算案例7Capturingrentsfromnaturalresources–ExamplefromNorway获取自然资源的租金－挪威案例SignificantamountsofrentsgeneratedbyoilindustrybutwithhighfluctuationsForestsgeneratesubstantialrents–butrentsaccruetoprivatesector(whichisalsosubsidized)Oilandgas–Resourcerentsandtaxes(1985-1996)Forestry–Resourcerentsandtaxes(1985-1995)8Assessingthe“cost”ofequity–ExamplefromNorway净资产的费用评估－挪威案例Fisheries–Resourcerentsandsubsidies(1985-1995)NorwaychosetosupportsmallscalefisheriestopromoteregionaldevelopmentFisheriesdonotproducepositiverentsNorevenuecollectionHighlysubsidizedindustry9Reinvestingrentsintootherformsofcapital–ExamplefromBotswana把租金再投向其他形式的资本－波斯瓦那案例Mineralrevenuesare35%ofGDP矿产收入占GDP的35％Governmenthasdeveloped“SustainableBudgetIndex“(SBI)政府开发了可持续预算指数SBImeasureshowmuchofthemineralrevenuesareconvertedtootherformsofassets(includingexpendituresoneducationandhealth)Governmentguideline:norevenuefromminingshouldbeusedforcurrentexpenditure103–TheWorldBank’sAdjustedNetSavings(ANS)Methodology世行经过调整的净储蓄方法Anindicatorforsustainability一个衡量可行性的指标11Adjustednetsavings(ANS)经过调整的净储蓄ANSmeasuresthe‘changeintotalwealth’overtimeSignandmagnitudeofANSarekeyindicatorsofsustainabilityDecompositionofANSenablesidentificationofpolicyrecommendationsNegativeANS(i.e.declineoftotalwealth)callsfor:ImprovefiscalandmonetarypolicyInvestmoreinhumancapitalChangepoliciesandencourageoverexploitationofnaturalresourcesImprovepoliciesthatencouragebetterpollutionmanagement12Adjustednetsavings经过调整的净储蓄

%ofGNI2002占国民总收入的百分比200213Empiricalevidence实例LowincomecountrieshavethelowestANSLowerincomelowersavingsLowerincomehigherdependenceonnaturalresourcesEastAsiaandpacifichavethehighestANS(becauseofveryhighgrossnationalsaving)MiddleEastandNorthAfricahavethelowestANS(becauseofoilextraction)14Implicationsforsustainabilityacrossregions可持续性的区域比较MiddleEastandAfricaareonanunsustainablepath–LatinAmericahaslowsavingsrates–EastAsiabenefitsfromhighNationalSavings(2002)15Starkdifferencesbetweentraditionalandadjustednetsavings传统和调整后的净储蓄的差异Sub-SaharanAfrica-AdjustedNetSavingrevealsadifferentstoryfromtraditionalmeasuresofsaving164–AdjustednetsavingsinAsia亚洲调整后的净储蓄Evidenceandresearchneeds17Comparinggrossandadjustednetsavings储蓄总量和调整后的净储蓄比较18Indonesia–naturalresourcesexploitationhasincreasedwiththecrisis印度尼西亚－自然资源的开发已经增加危机19Malaysia–educationexpenditureisanimportantpartofinvestments马来西亚－教育是投资的重要部分20China–asuccessfulstorybutwithmoretolearn中国－一个成功的故事但仍有很多需要学习215–Lookingahead未来Challengesandopportunities挑战与机遇22Challenges挑战EnvironmentalaccountsaremostlyusedinindustrializedcountriesAssetaccountsareseldomusedtoassesssustainabilitySustainabilitycanonlybemeasuredifallassetsareincluded(e.g.needtodomoreworkonsoilerosion,groundwater,fisheries)ControversyovermeasurementofmonetaryvalueshasmadeitmoredifficulttoattractpolicymakersInternationalcomparisonsareimportantbutmethodologiesdifferwidelyacrosscountries(exceptANS)23OpportunitiesforChina中国的机遇HighpotentialtogobeyondcurrentassetaccountingtoanalyzenationallyrelevantissuesOngoingeffortson‘costofenvironmentaldegradation’canbeexploitedforimprovedassetaccountingUseresearchresultsonlocalairandwaterpollutionUseinformationonsoilerosionAccesstointernationalexperienceandexamplestomultilateralinstitutions24Concludingremarks“Greening”nationalaccountsisanimportantsteptowardmeasuringsustainabilityandinformingpolicymakingAlsoimportanti