电子-减持新规、Mate60和荷兰出口政策

1Jan-23May-23Aug-23告Jan-23May-23Aug-23告华泰研究华泰观点：减持新规、华为Mate60和荷兰出口政策落地推动股价上涨SW7.1%，涨幅在A股28个行业排名第一。我们认为主要有以下三个原因：1)8/27，证监会发布减持新规，限制大股东减持。根据我们统计，科创板电子板块公司131家上市公司中，93家受新规影响，大股东暂无法减持，流通股短期稳定，或利好股价。2)8/29，华为Mate60pro上线商城，引起市场关注，我们认为华为重回手机市场有望带动射频，光学等零部件板块升级。3)9/1，根据路透社报道，ASML发言人表示，荷兰政府允许ASML向中国出口2000i及后续推出的浸润式DUV光刻机至今年年底，好于9/1起停售的市场预期，带动设备板块反弹。AI大模型：百度文心一言上线，图像理解等新功能印象深刻pp言、字节云雀、紫东太初、百川智能、智谱华章GLM、商汤日日新、MiniMaxABAB、上海人工智能实验室书生通用大模型等8家大模型企业完成备案，正式开始面向消费者服务。我们试用了百度的文心一言等App。除了和ChatGPT类似的交互对话和文本生成以外，文心一言还够提供图像理解等ChatGPT不具备的服务。根据百度披露，服务上线一天，用户数超过100万，回答超3342万个问题，未来发展值得期待。A股：SW电子上涨7.1%，跑赢上证指数(+2.3%)上周全部A股日均成交额合计9,483亿元，环比上涨27.3%。电子板块集体上涨，涨幅居前企业包括：慧智微(+42.5%)、海光信息(+19.4%)、晶升股份(+17.8%)。全部A股北向资金上周合计净流出157亿元，主要增持闻泰科技、传音控股、京东方A，减持立讯精密、北方华创、澜起科2%。港股：恒生科技指数上涨3.0%，跑赢恒生指数(+2.4%)上周全部港股日均成交额合计882亿港元，环比上升23.3%。恒生科技主 涨5.7%，美团跌2.8%，三七互娱跌2.3%。南向资金上周合计净流入144亿港元，主要增持美团、小鹏汽车、中国移动，减持腾讯控股、比亚迪股份、金山软件。海外：纳指上涨3.2%，标普500上涨2.5%，日经225上涨3.4%上周纳斯达克中概股上涨8.6%，纳指上涨3.2%，费城半导体指数上涨5.4%。十年美债利率下降7bp至4.18%。全球半导体板块集体上涨，涨幅居前的企业包括：镁光(+10.5%)、英特尔(+10.1%)、AMD超威半导体 美团跌2.8%。美股汽车：Rivian涨16.1%，比亚迪涨9.9%，理想涨7.8%，小鹏涨6.7%。日本股市：上周日经225涨3.4%；日本科技股集体上涨，涨幅居前为LASERTEC(雷瑟科)(+10.3%)、Disco(迪斯科) 7.0%)、日立(+6.2%)。风险提示：中美贸易摩擦升级风险，宏观下行风险，创新品渗透不及预期风险。本研报中涉及到未上市公司或未覆盖个股内容，均系对其客观公开信息的整理，并不代表本研究团队对该公司、该股票的推荐或覆盖。增持(维持)研究员SACNo.S0570521050001SFCNo.AUZ066研究员SACNo.S0570521070004SFCNo.BPH392研究员SACNo.S0570522120003研究员SACNo.S0570520090002SFCNo.BNC535研究员SACNo.S0570522020001研究员SACNo.S0570523070005SFCNo.BOB674研究员SACNo.S0570523070007SFCNo.BRH099联系人SACNo.S0570121090024SFCNo.BSF274leping.huang@+(852)36586000chenxudong@+(86)2128972228+(86)2128972228yuyi@+(86)75582492388zhanghaoyi@+(86)2128972228huyuzhou@+(86)2128972228andrewhuang@+(86)2128972228zhangyu@+(86)1063211166华泰证券研究所分析师名录行业走势图子沪深子(%)202(7)(16)Sep-22资料来源：Wind，华泰研究 电子板块行情和走势 22 电子行业高频数据追踪 28 全球宏观数据 42 是否满足不能减持条件(四个条件中满足至少一个)是否满足不能减持条件(四个条件中满足至少一个)条件3：是否三年未进行现金分红是否破条件2：是否破净条件4：三年累计分红占比是否小于30%发√√√√√√√序序号证券代码证券简称股占总股本比例三年累计分红占比 发行价(元)收盘价(元)过去三年累计分红(百市净率万元)1234567890123456789404142434445464748498286.SH8619.SH8525.SH8147.SH8252.SH8172.SH8512.SH8582.SH8141.SH8432.SH8629.SH8352.SH8469.SH8593.SH8249.SH8361.SH8610.SH8478.SH8620.SH8153.SH8591.SH8693.SH8458.SH8416.SH8371.SH8515.SH8325.SH8538.SH8053.SH8173.SH8107.SH8045.SH8234.SH8403.SH8213.SH8220.SH8322.SH8256.SH8047.SH8347.SH8521.SH8126.SH8012.SH8099.SH8981.SH8728.SH8130.SH8120.SH8630.SH8072.SH8608.SH8041.SH8766.SH8362.SH8385.SH8061.SH8181.SH8049.SH8381.SH8380.SH8332.SH8210.SH8259.SH8270.SH8391.SH8519.SH8230.SH8150.SH8010.SH8052.SH8388.SH8209.SH8206.SH8798.SH8048.SH敏芯股份罗普特佰维存储微导纳米天德钰燕东微慧智微-U芯动联科杰华特有研硅华丰科技颀中科技中芯集成-U新相微晶合集成中科飞测-U埃科光电晶升股份安凯微唯捷创芯C泰凌微锴威特美芯晟恒烁股份菲沃泰裕太微-U赛微微电和辉光电-U思科瑞希荻微安路科技必易微天岳先进汇成股份思特威-W翱捷科技-U奥比中光-UW寒武纪-U龙芯中科华虹公司芯原股份沪硅产业中微公司晶晨股份中芯国际格科微晶华微华海清科芯碁微装拓荆科技恒玄科技海光信息普冉股份甬矽电子复旦微电灿瑞科技八亿时空炬芯科技帝奥微中微半导中科蓝讯统联精密创耀科技臻镭科技钜泉科技南亚新材芯导科技莱特光电福光股份纳芯微嘉元科技英集芯概伦电子艾为电子长光华芯.4647.71 .50 .72 .8210.5010.7111.5211.7011.7511.8812.7314.8214.8817.3818.7319.8820.6621.5014.0221.6922.3222.5627.4324.0424.1830.1327.2433.8730.7227.0029.6733.3843.8344.4343.2042.5244.8716.98 6.0658.0952.9967.5470.8522.1321.9124.0058.7548.4746.9154.8037.8858.0211.7732.6223.7070.9473.5050.1832.2628.2451.9251.2866.4922.1538.4924.2529.7545.7451.6777.8126.3029.3643.6241.45-5,748.67-212.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.7115.0120.0623.1023.1825.1025.5525.7326.3128.3941.8942.4945.2451.9257.6361.4764.3165.6566.6873.6783.0384.1284.9990.5992.3893.2196.702.67 24.2121.6821.9820.9226.74 .26 .91 .26 .69 23.60 .33 .52 6.6024.9840.83 .00 5.11 .00 .55 2.65 .53 .5726.00 .15 2.79 8.88 .5164.54 .99 4.39 0.06 .00 .53 .8929.01 .5027.46 2.9836.66 .8862.07 .0048.90 6.2312.6943.9842.9841.68 .86 .6642.76 6.60 1.8815.00 .6034.8122.0525.2230.0028.2624.2328.28 .580.802.318.7649.2820.4323.7342.361.9323.075.584.731.4756.865.872.569.502.620.9845.9448.305.8546.07.262.654.001.206.2020.614.883.6844.29211.87.350.019.317.003.402.6343.9027.633.4627.6925.31.996.000.508.5724.1241.4821.3220.9924.528.853.462.868.434.822.965.094.403.77.779.163.322.502.993.812.424.642.885.004.264.179.914.123.805.586.712.995.062.266.563.865.588.722.302.253.342.392.503.543.692.412.793.964.984.513.5124.8049.33016.0024.0030.2536.0040.2459.7580.85.34 .68.807.80注：根据证监会，上市公司存在破发、破净情形，或者最近三年未进行现金分红、累计现金分红金额低于最近三年年均净利润30%的，控股股东、实际控制人不得通过二级市场减持本公司股份；收盘价截至2023年9月1日资料来源：Wind，华泰研究图表2：科创板电子板块公司符合“减持新规”情况(续表)条件3：是自由流通三年累计过去三年累条件1：条件否三年未条件4：三年是否满足不能减持股占总股分红占比发行价收盘价计分红(百是否破2：是进行现金累计分红占比条件(四个条件中序号证券代码证券简称本比例(%)(元)(元)市净率万元)发否破净分红是否小于30%满足至少一个)生益电子√√国芯科技√√方邦股份√√龙迅股份√√凌云光√√中船特气√√华海诚科√√盛美上海√√路维光电4√√源杰科技√√萤石网络√√炬光科技√√中润光学√√德邦科技√√清越科技√√南芯科技√√伟测科技√√富创精密8√√华润微思瑞浦龙腾光电3睿创微纳迅捷兴灿勤科技8长阳科技新益昌珠海冠宇宏微科技神工股份光峰科技瑞可达芯源微芯海科技8华峰测控美迪凯蓝特光学8东芯股份聚辰股份9世华科技腾景科技澜起科技力芯微奥普特0清溢光电9芯朋微8莱尔科技银河微电气派科技传音控股力合微5明微电子深科达鼎通科技利扬芯片晶丰明源6昀冢科技注：根据证监会，上市公司存在破发、破净情形，或者最近三年未进行现金分红、累计现金分红金额低于最近三年年均净利润30%的，控股股东、实际控制人不得通过二级市场减持本公司股份；收盘价截至2023年9月1日资料来源：Wind，华泰研究4.54.03.54.54.03.53.02.52.01.51.00.50.02023/01/032023/01/102023/01/172023/01/242023/01/312023/02/072023/02/142023/02/212023/02/282023/03/072023/03/142023/03/212023/03/282023/04/042023/04/112023/04/182023/04/252023/05/022023/05/092023/05/162023/05/232023/05/302023/06/062023/06/132023/06/202023/01/032023/01/102023/01/172023/01/242023/01/312023/02/072023/02/142023/02/212023/02/282023/03/072023/03/142023/03/212023/03/282023/04/042023/04/112023/04/182023/04/252023/05/022023/05/092023/05/162023/05/232023/05/302023/06/062023/06/132023/06/202023/06/272023/07/042023/07/112023/07/182023/07/252023/08/012023/08/082023/08/152023/08/222023/08/29上证指数标普500恒生指数日经225台湾加权指数13012512011511010510095908580注：我们进行了标准化处理，以2023年1月1日为100资料来源：Wind，Bloomberg，华泰研究45403530252050(X)S&P500前向PE纳斯达克100前向PE10年美债收益率(右轴)(%)2013/112014/022014/052014/082014/112015/022015/052015/082015/112016/022016/052016/082016/112017/022017/052017/082017/112018/022018/052018/082018/112019/022019/052019/082019/112020/022020/052020/082020/112021/022021/052021/082021/112022/022022/052022/082022/112023/022023/052023/08资料来源：Bloomberg，华泰研究(%)806040200(20)(40)2017/1/42018/1/42019/1/42020/1/42021/1/42022/1/42023/1/4资料来源：Wind，华泰研究051015202530051015202530354090807060504030200美国:恐惧贪婪指数VIX.GI(rhs)2021/032021/042021/052021/062021/072021/082021/092021/102021/112021/122022/012022/022022/032022/042022/052022/062022/072022/082022/092022/102022/112022/122023/012023/022023/032023/042023/052023/062023/072023/08注：指数往上反映投资者对市场越乐观(越贪婪)，往下反映投资者对市场越悲观(越恐慌)资料来源：CNN，CBOE，Wind，华泰研究(亿元)7,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,0000TMT板块成交金额占比60%50%40%30%20%10%0%2012/082013/082014/082015/082016/082017/082018/082019/082020/082021/082022/082023/08注：TMT行业主要包括电子、通信、计算机、传媒资料来源：Wind，华泰研究银行公用事业非银金融采掘农林牧渔交通运输食品饮料建筑装饰休闲服务房地产综合医药生物钢铁商业贸易电气设备化工有色金属国防军工纺织服装建筑材料通信传媒计算机家用电器汽车轻工制造机械设备子-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%注：使用申万指数资料来源：Wind，华泰研究商业贸易电气设备综合农林牧渔休闲服务医药生物交通运输化工房地产建筑材料食品饮料有色金属银行国防军工钢铁公用事业轻工制造采掘纺织服装子汽车建筑装饰机械设备非银金融家用电器计算机传媒通信-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%注：使用申万指数；截至9月1日收盘资料来源：Wind，华泰研究(亿元港币)全部港股成交额恒生指数(右轴)恒生科技指数(右轴)3,0002,5002,0001,5001,00050002020/022020/042020/062020/082020/102020/122021/022021/042021/062021/082021/102021/122022/022022/042022/062022/082022/102022/122023/022023/042023/062023/0835,00030,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,0000资料来源：Wind，华泰研究A科技板块个股涨跌幅下面四个板块成交额和涨跌幅来自华泰统计，具体标的参考图11-图19。半导体：半导体板块股价上涨8.9%，日均成交额环比上升76.0%；费指上涨5.4%上周半导体板块(华泰统计)日均成交额合计256亿元，环比上升76.0%。A股半导体板块集体上涨，涨幅居前企业包括：慧智微(+42.5%)、海光信息(+19.4%)、中微公司 (+16.1%)。全球半导体板块集体上涨，涨幅居前的企业包括：镁光(+10.5%)、英特尔 (+10.1%)、AMD超威半导体(+7.0%)。AIAI%上周AI板块(华泰统计)日均成交额合计565亿元，环比上涨10.0%。A股AI涨幅居前企业包括：海光信息(+19.4%)、昆仑万维(+13.4%)、晶丰明源(+12.6%)；跌幅居前企业包括：ASMPT(-1.7%)。海外AI企业涨幅居前为Shopify(+20.1%)、Marvell(+8.3%)、Rambus(+7.5%)，跌幅较大为纬颖(-6.2%)、英业达(-3.9%)、GUC(-1.7%)。上周消费电子板块日均成交额合计为164亿元，环比上涨7.5%。A/H股消费集体上涨，涨幅居前企业包括：传音控股(+15.1%)、大华股份(+10.9%)、比亚迪电子(+10.7%)。6%上周汽车电子板块日均成交额合计为75亿元，环比上涨20.6%。A/H股汽车电子集体上涨，涨幅居前企业包括：晶升股份(+17.8%)、禾赛科技(+16.5%)、经纬恒润-W (+13.4%)。美股汽车板块：Rivian涨16.1%，比亚迪涨9.9%，理想涨7.8%，小鹏涨6.7%。收盘价(元交易货币)营收增速净利润增收盘价(元交易货币)营收增速净利润增ROE速2023E(Wind一致预期)股价变动1MP/E2023E2024EP/B2023E2024EP/S2023E2024E市值(人民币亿元)公司名称代码1WYTD币半半导体标的公司半导体设计微海光信息汇顶科技卓胜微芯原股份聚辰股份思瑞浦芯朋微安路科技芯海科技概伦电子恒玄科技乐鑫科技纳芯微澜起科技新洁能兆易创新士兰微寒武纪-U圣邦股份国科微北京君正长光华芯中颖电子瑞芯微晶晨股份斯达半导韦尔股份华大九天47.9% 50.2%-26.5%-32.7% -28.4%-28.4% 29.1%-43.3%-35.3% -22.6%微海光信息汇顶科技卓胜微芯原股份聚辰股份思瑞浦芯朋微安路科技芯海科技概伦电子恒玄科技乐鑫科技纳芯微澜起科技新洁能兆易创新士兰微寒武纪-U圣邦股份国科微北京君正长光华芯中颖电子瑞芯微晶晨股份斯达半导韦尔股份华大九天47.9% 50.2%-26.5%-32.7% -28.4%-28.4% 29.1%-43.3%-35.3% -22.6%-41.2% -25.2% 20.4%-39.9% 17.8%22.0%41.3%.3%.8% 11.2%42.5%70.8%17.0%40.8%21.4%.3%%.7%64.5%.7%.8%.0%%.4%%%%.4%.0%.7%.7%% 10.0% .5% 1071,37927065433189222671844110614794183584106630359620364151356112892713533361,06956923.759.359.0122.666.256.5185.159.545.928.824.5122.9116.4128.351.435.794.525.3148.877.869.674.063.526.164.884.9196.890.4104.98.714.25.712.68.25.69.85.19.23.819.55.94.76.511.13.87.43.039.38.62.25.213.24.18.74.36.14.137.45.67.53.56.910.83.95.54.311.23.64.92.44.82.65.52.74.04.413.98.93.43.03.15.48.46.25.15.511.7106.2368.960.2257.921.484.043.6471.388.1211.770.064.575.269.321.058.940.3-76.355.537.442.568.231.179.643.931.568.3220.1.575.559.243.2162.015.249.928.6142.937.5144.445.344.738.635.816.438.028.739.826.931.442.123.550.530.723.735.0163.715.919.56.715.810.77.712.46.813.55.127.07.45.98.618.24.89.13.657.711.22.96.319.35.111.25.58.34.950.75.76.93.36.010.13.15.03.810.53.54.72.34.42.44.82.43.73.915.97.43.02.72.94.67.45.24.34.811.085128041316078285218123853685088107859582068608801880528008511139860460825666167222380483273893809932903501269CNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNY2.6%%%1.3%0.9%半半导体制造中芯国际通富微电长电科技扬杰科技华虹半导体华天科技捷捷微电时代电气华润微三安光电.6%.0%%.9%.0%中芯国际通富微电长电科技扬杰科技华虹半导体华天科技捷捷微电时代电气华润微三安光电.6%.0%%.9%.0%%%3.9%4.4%8.3%9.2%4.9%8.0%4.3%71.224.447.326.717.113.337.629.921.130.354.12,1362,1363035791944542861275197707819.73.11.21.93.01.82.25.22.86.54.52.96.82.01.92.27.11.62.91.63.01.93.07.22.12.22.57.71.73.31.73.42.051.020.928.617.613.812.925.521.118.425.335.153.719.720.032.435.720.58.917.344.058.415.78.02.71.01.62.41.71.83.82.45.63.8688981CH0981HK002156CH600584CH300373CH002185CH300623CH688187CH688396CH600703CHUSDUSDCNYCNYCNYUSDCNYCNYCNYCNYCNY半半导体设备长川科技盛美上海拓荆科技沪硅产业华海清科北方华创华峰测控至纯科技ASMPT50.5%68.9%10长川科技盛美上海拓荆科技沪硅产业华海清科北方华创华峰测控至纯科技ASMPT50.5%68.9%10.9%64.8%37.4%%%%2.2%%%%9.6%9.8%.4%%.7%.6%.7%11.74.69.811.511.29.25.514.22.01.95.05.86.89.03.54.95.24.61.81.79372304924685663371,44719310429757.029.558.788.4162.144.940.739.721.119.950.222.046.957.9123.133.430.229.915.916.1151.637.4113.4370.020.6211.9273.0142.527.078.615.15.912.616.214.212.47.118.22.52.1688012CH300604CH688082CH688072CH688126CH688120CH002371CH688200CH603690CH0522HK5.57.57.910.63.75.86.35.31.91.9CNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYHKD7.9%6.2%7%9%半导体板块9%半导体板块注：预测数据来自Wind一致预期资料来源：Wind，华泰研究8.926.421.334.938.69857554,2221,57956812.52.02.62.12.614.92.22.92.52.90.20.90.71.20.78.123.114.814.319.00.20.80.61.10.69.628.317.516.624.3联想集团紫光股份工业富联中兴通讯浪8.926.421.334.938.69857554,2221,57956812.52.02.62.12.614.92.22.92.52.90.20.90.71.20.78.123.114.814.319.00.20.80.61.10.69.628.317.516.624.3联想集团紫光股份工业富联中兴通讯浪潮信息USDCNYCNYCNYCNY收盘价(元交易货币)营收增速净利润增收盘价(元交易货币)营收增速净利润增ROE速2023E(Wind一致预期)股价变动1MP/E2023E2024EP/B2023E2024EP/S2023E2024E财报货币公司名称代码1WYTD(人民币亿元)半导体标的公司半导体设计688041CH海光信息CNY1,37959.337.7%61.5%7.4%106.275.57.56.919.514.2-2.3%47.9%688368CH晶丰明源CNY72113.741.2%129.3%3.8%118.836.14.54.14.73.612.6%-11.7%1.7%688521CH芯原股份CNY33166.215.7%73.6%4.2%257.9162.010.810.110.78.211.9%-6.2%50.2%688515CH裕太微-UCNY102127.843.5%1364.9%1.1%1978.5181.55.55.417.712.59.4%-12.5%0.0%688141CH杰华特CNY14331.930.1%6.5%6.2%97.650.24.84.47.65.48.1%-4.2%-32.8%688008CH澜起科技CNY58451.4-12.5%-35.1%8.2%69.335.85.54.818.211.17.0%-8.9%-17.5%688047CH龙芯中科CNY37794.098.2%256.3%4.5%204.4104.99.38.525.716.36.0%-5.3%10.0%688256CH寒武纪-UCNY620148.847.4%35.3%-18.7%-76.3-111.013.915.957.739.35.9%-10.8%172.8%半导体制造688981CH中芯国际CNY2,13653.7-10.9%-50.6%4.3%71.251.03.02.99.78.011.1%5.6%30.5%002156CH通富微电CNY30320.014.8%27.8%4.4%47.328.62.12.01.21.09.4%-10.3%22.0%600584CH长电科技CNY57932.4-8.0%-32.9%8.3%26.717.62.21.91.91.68.6%-2.9%41.3%0522.HCHASMPTHKD29778.6-18.8%-37.7%9.8%19.916.12.01.92.11.97%5.9%46.8%PCB/CCL标的公司300476CH胜宏科技CNY19022.119.8%17.8%12.1%20.415.92.42.12.01.711.7%-5.4%72.4%002436CH兴森科技CNY20512.217.8%-21.7%5.8%49.931.63.02.83.32.510.7%-12.0%26.2%002463CH沪电股份CNY39620.812.6%12.0%16.1%26.019.74.23.54.23.46.3%-7.5%76.0%002938CH鹏鼎控股CNY49721.45.5%-5.4%15.2%10.59.01.61.41.31.26.2%-15.3%-19.8%通信标的公司通信-光模块/光芯片300308CH中际旭创CNY900112.220.0%34.3%12.2%54.830.16.65.57.84.74.9%-16.2%315.7%688048CH长光华芯CNY11263.550.0%37.5%4.7%68.242.13.12.919.313.24.2%-12.8%-14.4%688498CH源杰科技CNY137161.019.0%21.4%5.6%112.277.36.05.640.629.33.8%-18.1%89.0%300394CH天孚通信CNY32081.040.9%34.5%18.0%59.041.410.68.919.012.60.5%-17.6%221.6%通信-热管理0.0300684CH中石科技CNY5218.425.0%25.6%13.5%21.217.22.82.62.62.17.4%-3.4%27.4%300499CH高澜股份CNY4113.4-37.8%-64.3%6.6%40.324.72.62.33.52.25.2%-6.7%35.6% .4%35.3%36.5%CNY.9%%%%%%8.3%3.827.239.729.3154服务器标的公司992HK000938CH601138CH000063CH000977CH大模型标的公司大模型标的公司002230CH科大讯飞CNY1,25954.423.3%138.3%7.6%94.164.57.16.55.44.25.8%-12.1%65.9%9888HK百度集团-SWCNY3,569139.411.0%162.6%8.4%17.917.01.61.42.62.45.7%-4.8%24.8%9988HK阿里巴巴-SWCNY16,82290.212.0%101.1%11.9%13.411.91.61.51.81.63.1%-5.2%4.6%20HK商汤-WCNY4781.623.0%41.1%-12.9%-13.4-18.21.82.010.27.62.0%-11.4%-29.7%700HK腾讯控股CNY28,430325.011.8%-26.4%17.4%20.517.13.22.74.64.11.6%-5.4%3.2%三六零三六零百度集团-SW应用-搜索300418CH601360CH9888HKCNYCNYCNY4427903,56937.011.1139.435.868.02.4 .7% .7%%应用-电商零售002315CH焦点科技CNY10132.5%%9888HK9618HK阿里巴巴-SW9888HK9618HK应用-办公688111688111CHCNYCNYCNY16,8223,7491,78790.2128.8387.0%14.718.1119.613.113.818.01.61.526.4.9%.7%.6%万兴科技福昕软件万兴科技福昕软件泛微网络688095CH603039CHCNYCNYCNY1238215989.089.961.2%8.2%%-407.6%120.3.053.182.0704.939.68.011.44.3 203.2%%应用-金融法律300033CH同花顺CNY894166.4%%43.835.710.68.721.117.5应用-教育002841CH视源股份【华泰跟踪】AI板块标的CNY37152.916.71.61.47%21.5%注：市值、股价取9月1日收盘价，采用Wind汇率，预测数据来自Wind一致预期资料来源：Wind，Bloomberg，华泰研究传音控股联想集团小米集团-W688036CH0992HKYSDY22.8%-2.1%21.0%6.2%69.8%-30.9%282.9%-4.0%传音控股联想集团小米集团-W688036CH0992HKYSDY22.8%-2.1%21.0%6.2%69.8%-30.9%282.9%-4.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%0.3%0.7%-0.9%-3.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%-0.4%0.0%0.0%-0.3%-0.3%0.0%0.7%0.0%1.3%-0.2%-0.3%0.8%-0.8%-0.7%0.0%-0.8%79.8%43.4%45.9% -3.2% -6.0% -7.8% 3.5%-48.8%3.8% 4.9%76.0% 5.7% -7.4%-21.9%22.2%0.6%20.2%92.5%4.6%4.3%-8.8%3.0%-25.4%36.9%1.152,829.922.2496.830.727.088.635.8.92.24.82.02.01.2TCL科技利亚德深天马A京东方A8.7%9.6%-7.8%5.4%-3.7%13.6%YYYY000100CH300296CH000050CH000725CH-2012.5%7.9%14-9.9.74.92.30.3.8.8.1.7.7.0.4.6.7.8.3.3.6.64.16.38.74.0华股份海康威视信维通信视源股份涂鸦智能-W奕瑞科技YYYYSDY23.7%28.6%7.4%48.4%28.6%20.5%11.5%16.4%0.0%18.3%002236CH002415CH300136CH002841CH2391HK688301CH2.34.22.22.78.8270.12.13.62.02.49.04.4.2225.5.1,317146242.120.9-759.629.922.9收盘价(元交易货币)营收增速净利润增速股价变动收盘价(元交易货币)营收增速净利润增速股价变动EBS市值(人民币亿元)代码公司名称币YTD2023E(Wind一致预期)2023E2024E2023E2024E2023EYTD消费电子标的公消费电子标的公司品牌1%103%手手机产业链比亚迪电子蓝思科技水晶光电长盈精密环旭电子歌尔股份立讯精密工业富联FITHONTENG瑞声科技YYYYYYYYSDY20.9%16.5%33.0%7.3%0.2%-3.6%比亚迪电子蓝思科技水晶光电长盈精密环旭电子歌尔股份立讯精密工业富联FITHONTENG瑞声科技YYYYYYYYSDY20.9%16.5%33.0%7.3%0.2%-3.6%19.7%12.4%0.1%2.3%67.8%827.3%-9.5%27.3%2.3%-0.3%6.5%8.0%6.6%6.7%3.5%0782,3324,222.21.31.72.01.81.74.22.93.30.9.60.92.10.60.40.50.80.60.928.819.821.630.511.824.720.017.538.724.420.7.5291.9.71.12.50.70.50.50.90.70.90285HK300433CH002273CH300115CH601231CH002241CH002475CH601138CH6088HK2018HK2.81.21.61.81.61.53.42.63.00.96.412.110.610.014.815.432.721.31.115.2被动元件/被动元件/PCB顺络电子江海股份三环集团沪电股份鹏鼎控股风华高科生益科技深南电路建滔积层板法拉电子24.5%22.0%22.0%12.6%5.5%21.6%0.2%9.2%23.9%56.5%25.8%19.4%12.0%-5.4%74.9%-5.9%5.0%21.9%21.3%顺络电子江海股份三环集团沪电股份鹏鼎控股风华高科生益科技深南电路建滔积层板法拉电子24.5%22.0%22.0%12.6%5.5%21.6%0.2%9.2%23.9%56.5%25.8%19.4%12.0%-5.4%74.9%-5.9%5.0%21.9%21.3%15.2%9.8%15.2%4.7%10.2%12.7%14.4%25.0%002138CH002484CH300408CH002463CH002938CH000636CH600183CH002916CH600563CHYYYYYYYYKDY.32.37.63.41.22.91.71.90.94.22.118.334.126.010.529.424.119.68.720.923.214.725.219.79.019.617.915.87.316.5.52.73.34.21.61.42.52.51.45.2.22.43.03.51.41.32.32.21.34.24.12.89.84.21.33.61.92.21.05.41736497785527.02.020.821.466.06.51.8%8.48.4%6.6%6.5%安防/安防/AI/数字化及其他110.9%6.8%0.5%0.2%【华【华泰跟踪】消费电子板块标的注：预测数据来自Wind一致预期资料来源：Wind，华泰研究4%7.3%4.9%4%7.3%4.9% 9.3%59.0%58.0%.8%18.3%%% -6.4%%2.91.910.22.72.65.52.81.43.15.93.7..35.259.227.451.5N.A.31.469.368.3N.A.60.051.068.229.539.821.0N.A.36.477.7105.040.28.22.72.34.810.32.71.42.95.13.5..14.4140.518.4143.05.764.19.690.410.586.718.863.586.535.141.66.831.631.110.338.279.83.01.70.84.12.78.42.313.24.52.74.518.14.31.042.419.937.022.621.535.049.841.824.042.123.428.014.627.853.8284.271.430.427.23.30.53.91.90.94.911.73.119.38.94.42.85.83.45.81692587941866441021,069957840112961486650171169245155366122CNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNY6%1.0%4.5%%0.026.0%%%2.52.92.20.52.810.645.229.67.641.514836155556621.659.831.110.238.02.12.11.734.822.77.425.2水晶光电华安鑫创华阳集团京东方精电CNYCNYCNYHKDCNY市值(人民币亿元)1,3986,9873,13255,8271,288营收增速市值(人民币亿元)1,3986,9873,13255,8271,288营收增速净利润ROE增速2023E(Wind/Factset一致预期)股价变动P/EP/BP/S财报货币代码公司名称2023E2024E2023E2024E1M1W2023E2024EYTD(元交易货币)整车标的 50.3%24.6%28.8%58.5%402.8%0.0%28.3