统计学简史及数据科学(中南财经大学)

统计学简史与数据科学袁卫2016.12.10中南财经政法大学英国培根：读史可以明智(Histories

makemen

wise）德国斯勒兹:统计是静态的历史,历史是动态的统

计.(Statistics

is

the

state

historywhile

history

is

the

dynamicstatistics).2一、 期源头（Early

Beginnings)二、数学基础

(MathematicalFoundations)三、现代发展

(Modern

Era)3一、早期源头（公元前450年至15世纪）4均值的使用5450

bc

Hippias

of

Elis

uses

the

average

value

ofthe

length

of

a

king’s

reign

(the

mean)to

workout

the

date

of

the

first

Olympic

Games,

some

300years

before

his

time.希皮亚斯(Hippias),出生于希腊伯罗奔尼撒(Peloponnesus)西北部的埃利斯(Elis),与柏拉图(Plato)是同时代的人，历史上第一位数学史家。他在公元前450年用以前每个国王执政时间长短的均值推算出首届奥运会是距当时300多年前的公元前776年举办的。431

bc

Attackers

besieging

Plataea

in

thePeloponnesian

war

calculate

theheight

ofthe

wallby

countingthe

numberof

bricks.

The

count

wasrepeated

several

times

by

different

soldiers.

Themost

frequent

value

(the

mode)

was

taken

to

bethe

most

likely.

Multiplying

it

by

theheightof

onebrick

allowed

themto

calculate

thelength

of

theladders

neededto

scale

the

walls.公元前431年希腊伯罗奔尼撒战争中雅典人让士兵数城墙砖的层数，取士兵数据的众数乘以每块砖的厚度推算城墙的高度，用以计算云梯所需长度。6众数的使用7400

bc

In

the

Indian

epic

the

Mahabharata,

KingRtuparna

estimates

the

numberof

fruit

and

leaves(2095

fruit

and

50

000

000

leaves)

on

two

greatbranches

of

a

vibhitaka

tree

by

counting

thenumber

ona

single

twig,

then

multiplying

by

thenumberof

twigs.

The

estimate

is

foundto

be

veryclosetothe

actualnumber.This

is

the

firstrecorded

example

of

sampling

–

“but

thisknowledge

iskept

secret”,

says

the

account.公元前400年，印度史诗《摩诃婆罗多》(Mahabharata)中国王利用只计算两个大树枝上的果实和叶子数量乘上树枝的数量估算整棵树果实和叶子的数量，这是已知最早的抽样推断。抽样推断8AD

2

Chinese

census

under

the

Han

dynasty

finds57.67

million

people

in

12.36

million

households

–the

first

census

from

which

data

survives,

andstill

considered

by

scholars

to

have

been

accurate公元2年，中国汉代进行了人口普查，结果是1236万家庭，

5767万人口。记载的数据被认为是相当准确的。普查9AD

7

Census

by

Quirinus,

governor

of

the

Romanprovince

of

Judea,

is

mentioned

in

Luke’s

Gospelas

causing

Joseph

and

Maryto

travel

to

Bethlehemto

be

taxed.路加福音记载，公元7年，意大利罗马省省长奎里努斯实施了普查，导致约瑟夫和玛丽前往约瑟夫祖籍大卫家族所在的伯利恒申报户籍.普查用10840

Islamic

mathematician

Al-Kindi

usesfrequency

analysis

–

the

most

common

symbolsin

a

coded

message

will

stand

for

the

mostcommon

letters

–

tobreaksecret

codes.

Al-Kindialso

introducesArabic

numeralsto

Europe.公元840年，伊斯兰数学家金迪利最常用符号和最常用字符破解伊斯兰密码,他还将阿拉伯数字介绍到欧洲。频数分析10th

century

The

earliest

known

graph,

in

acommentary

ona

book

by

Cicero,

shows

themovementsofthe

planets

through

the

zodiac.

It

isapparently

intended

for

use

in

monastery

schools.公元10世纪，意大利西塞罗书中最早使用了曲线，描

述黄道带中行星运动的轨迹，也是修道院最早使用的图表曲线。11曲线121069

Domesday

Book:

survey

for

William

theConqueror

of

farms,

villages

and

livestock

in

hisnew

kingdom

–

the

start

of

official

statistics

inEngland.1069年最终税册：英王征服者威廉一世做的调查，对新王国村庄和牲畜进行调查，这是英国官方统计最早的记录（英格兰约150万人，90%是农民）。官方统计1150

Trial

of

the

Pyx,

an

annual

test

of

the

purityof

coins

from

the

Royal

Mint,

begins.

Coins

aredrawn

at

random,

in

fixed

proportions

to

thenumber

minted.

It

continues

to

this

day.公元1150年，英国皇家制币厂开始硬币纯度和质量的年度检验。通过随机样本进行等比例抽样检验，延续至今。随机抽样13人口普查1188

Gerald

of

Wales

completed

the

firstpopulation

census

of

Wales.14公元1188年，英国威尔士的杰拉尔德完成了威尔士第一次人口普查。151303

A

Chinese

diagram

entitled

“The

OldMethod

Chart

of

the

Seven

Multiplying

Squares”shows

the

binomial

coefficients

upto

the

eighthpower

–

the

numbersthat

are

fundamentalto

themathematics

of

probability,

and

that

appearedfive

hundredyears

later

in

the

westas

Pascal’striangle.公元1303年中国“杨辉（1261）三角形”（贾宪更早）给出二项分布系数8次幂，奠定概率论的数学基础，而帕斯卡(1662)三角形是500年之后才出现。二项式系数161346

Giovanni

Villani’s

Nuova

Cronica

givesstatistical

information

on

the

population

and

tradeof

Florence.公元1346年，意大利佛罗伦斯当时的历史学家佐凡尼·微拉尼(Giovanni

Villani)在著作《Nuova

Cronica中纪录了人口和贸易的统计信息。人口与贸易统计17二、数学基础（16世纪至19世纪末）181560

Gerolamo

Cardano

calculates

probabilitiesof

different

dicethrows

for

gamblers.公元1560年，意大利文艺复兴科学家吉罗拉莫·卡尔达诺计算出掷骰子的各种概率。概率初步191570

Astronomer

Tycho

Brahe

uses

thearithmeticmean

to

reduce

errors

in

his

estimates

of

thelocations

of

stars

andplanets.公元1570年，丹麦天文学家第谷·布拉赫在估计星球的位置和运行时使用算术平均数减少误差。均值与误差1644

Michael

van

Langren

draws

the

first

known

graphof

statistical

data

that

shows

the

size

ofpossible

errors.

It

is

of

different

estimates

ofthedistance

between

Toledo

and

Rome.公元1644年，荷兰天文学家Michael

van

Langren用统计数据画出第一张误差图，用不同方法估计从西班牙托莱多到意大利罗马的距离。20误差图1654

Pascal

and

Fermat

correspond

aboutdividing

stakes

in

gambling

games

and

togethercreate

themathematical

theory

of

probability.公元1654年法国帕斯卡和费马通过对赌博中如何下注等问题通信的研究共同创立了概率的数学理论。21概率数学基础221657

Huygens’s

On

Reasoning

in

Games

of

Chance

is

the

first

book

on

probabilitytheory.Healso

invented

the

pendulum

clock.公元1657年，荷兰科学家惠更斯完成“机会游戏的推理”一书，这是第一本概率理论的书，他还是摆钟的发明者。首本概率著作231663

John

Graunt

uses

parish

records

to

estimatethe

population

of

London.公元1663年，英国约翰格朗特利用伦敦教区的洗礼、弥撒等数据分析并估计伦敦的人口,并首次给出新生婴儿性别比52:48。人口统计1693

EdmundHalleyprepares

the

first

mortality

tables

statistically

relating

death

rates

to

age

–

thfoundation

of

life

insurance.

He

also

drew

a

stylisedmapof

the

path

of

a

solar

eclipse

over

England

–oneof

the

first

data

visualisation

maps.1693年，英国哈雷制作了第一张分年龄的死亡率表，为人寿保险奠定了基础。他还画出日食经过英国的路线图，这也是数据的第一张可视化地图。首张死亡率表241713

Jacob

Bernoulli’s

Ars

conjectandi

derivesthe

law

of

large

numbers

–

the

more

often

yourepeat

an

experiment,

the

moreaccurately

youcan

predict

the

result.1713年，瑞士科学家伯努利在《猜测术》一书中提出大数定律，即实验次数越多，预测结果就越准确。大数定律251728

Voltaireand

his

mathematician

friend

de

laCondamine

spot

that

a

Paris

bond

lottery

isoffering

more

in

prize

money

than

the

total

costof

the

tickets;

they

corner

the

market

and

winthemselves

a

fortune.公元1728年法国伏尔泰和他的数学家朋友拉.孔达明计算出巴黎债券彩票的奖金总额高于购买的成本,于是他们垄断了彩票市场,并获得收益.26博彩统计1749Gottfried

Achenwall

coins

the

word“statistics”

(in

German,

Statistik);

he

means

theinformation

you

needto

run

a

nation

state.公元1749年德国阿亨瓦尔创造了德文词汇“Statistik”,即“statistics”。他定义“统计”为治理国家所需要的信息。德文“统计”词汇的出现27281757

Casanova

becomes

a

trustee

of,

and

may

have

hada

hand

in

devising,

the

French

nationallottery.1757年法国卡萨诺瓦成为法国国家彩票的受托人，发明了彩票。国家彩票业出现291761

TheRev.

Thomas

Bayes

proves

Bayes’theorem

–

the

cornerstone

of

conditional

probabilityand

the

testing

of

beliefs

and

hypotheses.1761年英国贝叶斯证明了贝叶斯定理，奠定了条件概率的基础，检验信念和假设。贝叶斯定理301786

William

Playfair

introduces

graphs

and

barcharts

to

show

economic

data.1786年英国爱丁堡WilliamPlayfair首次用图表反映经济数据变化。经济数据图表1789

Gilbert

White

and

other

clergymen-naturalistskeep

records

of

temperatures,

dates

of

firstsnowdrops

and

cuckoos,

etc;

the

data

is

later

usefulfor

study

of

climate

change.1789年英国吉尔伯特.怀特和其他牧师博物学家记录温度变化、首次降雪时间以及变化情况等。数据被用来研究气候变化。31气候统计1790

First

UScensus,

taken

by

men

on

horsebackdirected

by

Thomas

Jefferson,

counts

3.9

millionAmericans.1790年美国在第三任总统托马斯.杰斐逊总统指导下进行了首次人口普查，结果为390万人口。美国首次人口普查321791

First

useof

the

word

“statistics”

in

English,by

Sir

John

Sinclair

in

his

Statistical

Account

ofScotland.1791年英国约翰.辛克莱在他“苏格兰统计账户”中首次使用英文词“统计”Statistics.33英文“统计”词汇的出现1805

Adrien-Marie

Legendre

introduces

the

methodof

least

squares

for

fitting

a

curve

to

a

given

set

ofobservations.1805年法国数学家勒让德首次使用最小二乘法利用数据去拟合曲线。最小二乘法341808

Gauss,

with

contributions

from

Laplace,derivesthe

normal

distribution–

the

bell-shapedcurve

fundamentaltothe

study

of

variation

anderror.1808年德国高斯和拉普拉斯一起得到正态分布，即钟形曲线，奠定了误差研究的基础。正态分布351833

The

British

Association

for

the

Advancementof

Science

sets

upa

statistics

section.

ThomasMalthus,

who

analysed

population

growth,

andCharles

Babbageare

members.

It

later

becomes

theRoyal

Statistical

Society.1833年，英国高等科学协会建立了统计分会，分析人口增长的托马斯.马尔萨斯和查尔斯．巴贝奇都是会员，这个分会后来成为英国皇家统计学会。英国统计学会361835

Belgian

Adolphe

Quetelet’s

Treatise

on

Man

introduces

social

science

statistics

and

theconcept

of

the

“average

man”

–

his

height,

bodymass

index,

and

earnings.1835年比利时阿道夫·凯特勒在《论人及其才能的发展》中将统计方法用于社会科学，

并提出“平均人”的概念，讨论人的身高、体重和收入等。应用于社会科学371839:

The

American

Statistical

Association

is

formed.Alexander

Graham

Bell,

Andrew

Carnegie

andPresident

Martin

Van

Buren

will

become

members.1839年美国统计学会成立。亚历山大·格雷厄姆·贝尔、德鲁·卡内基和美国总统马丁•范布伦都是会员。美国统计学会成立381840

WilliamFarr

sets

up

the

official

system

forrecording

causes

of

death

in

England

and

Wales.This

allows

epidemics

to

be

tracked

and

diseasescompared

–the

start

of

medical

statistics.1840年，英国威廉.法尔建立了英格兰和威尔士死亡原因的官方数据系统，可以追踪研究流行病，并对疾病进行比较研究，开创了医疗卫生统计。医疗卫生统计391849

Charles

Babbage

designs

his

“differenceengine”,

embodying

the

ideas

of

data

handlingand

the

modern

computer.

AdaLovelace,

LordByron’s

niece,

writes

the

world’s

first

computerprogram

for

it.1849年英国查尔斯．巴贝奇设计了他的“差分机”，体现了掌握数据和现代计算机的基本思想。爱达·勒芙蕾丝，拜伦勋爵的侄女，为它写了世界上最早的计算机程序。计算机程序雏形40411854

John

Snow’s

“cholera

map”pins

down

thesource

of

an

outbreak

as

a

water

pump

in

BroadStreet,

London,

beginning

the

modern

study

ofepidemics.1854年英国约翰.斯诺利用“霍乱地图”确认伦敦百老汇大街的供水系统是疾病爆发的源头，也是现代流行病学研究的源头。开创流行病学研究，421859

Florence

Nightingale

uses

statistics

ofCrimean

War

casualties

to

influence

public

opinion

and

theWar

Office.

She

shows

casualties

month

by

month

on

a

circular

chart

she

devises,

the

“Nightingale

rose”,forerunner

of

the

pie

chart.

She

is

the

first

woman

member

ofthe

Royal

Statistical

Society

and

the

first

overseasmember

othe

American

Statistical

Association.1859年，南丁格尔使用克里米亚战争伤亡统计数据影响公众意见和英国战争决策机构。她将战争期间逐月伤亡数据用她设计的圆形图表示出来，即“南丁格尔玫瑰”是最早的饼图。她是英国皇家统计学会第一位女会员，也是美国统计学会第一位

海外会员。饼图的使用431868

Minard’s

graphic

diagramof

Napoleon’sMarchon

Moscow

shows

on

one

diagram

the

distancecovered,

the

numberof

men

still

alive

ateachkilometre

of

the

march,

and

the

temperatures

theyencountered

on

the

way.1868年英国米纳尔绘制了拿破仑东征莫斯科战争图。图

中绘出征程中重大战役以及军队减员数据，从莫斯科撤退过程气温的变化，简洁地描描述述了了一一场场战战争争。。44统计图表的妙用1877

Francis

Galton,

Darwin’s

cousin,describes

regression

to

the

mean.In

1888

he

introduces

the

concept

ofcorrelation.

At

a

“Guess

the

weightofan

Ox”

contest

in

Devon

he

describesthe“Wisdomof

Crowds”

–

that

the

average

of

manyuninformed

guesses1877年英国弗朗西斯·高尔顿，达尔文的表弟，首次描述了向

平均数的回归。1888年他首次

使用了相关的概念。在德文郡一次“猜猜公牛的体重”的

竞赛中，他描述许多无知猜测

的平均数体现了“群众的智慧”。

45回归与相关1886

Philanthropist

Charles

Booth

begins

his

surveyof

theLondon

poor,

to

produce

his

“poverty

map

ofLondon”.

Areas

were

coloured

black,

for

thepoorest,

throughto

yellow

for

the

upper-middleclass

and

wealthy.1886年英国慈善家查尔斯·布斯开始在伦敦进行贫困调查并绘制了“贫困地图”。地图上用黑色表示最贫穷地区，逐渐过渡到黄色代表中上层和富裕地区。贫困地图461894

Karl

Pearson

introduces

the

term

“standarddeviation”.

If

errors

are

normally

distributed,

68%

osamples

will

lie

within

one

standard

deviation

of

themean.

Later

he

develops

chi-squared

tests

forwhether

two

variables

are

independent

of

each

other.1894年英国卡尔.皮尔逊首次使用了“标准差”的术语。如果误差是正态分布的，68%的样本会落在均值附近正负一个标准差之内。不久，他又提出卡方检验，用来检验两个统计量是否独立。标准差47481898

Von

Bortkiewicz’s

data

on

deaths

of

soldiersin

the

Prussian

army

from

horse

kicks

shows

thatapparently

rare

events

follow

a

predictable

pattern,the

Poisson

distribution1898年，德国范.鲍特凯维兹发现普鲁士士兵被战马踢死的数据是明显的稀有事件，可以用泊松分布进行预测。泊松分布三、现代发展（20世纪初至今）49501900

Louis

Bachelier

shows

that

fluctuations

instock

market

prices

behave

inthe

same

way

as

therandom

Brownian

motion

of

molecules

–

the

startof

financial

mathematics.1900年，法国数学家巴施里叶（Louis

Bachelier）首先发现股票市场价格的波动与分子随机布朗运动一致，开创了金融数学。金融数学1908

William

Sealy

Gossett,

chief

brewer

forGuinness

in

Dublin,

describes

the

t-test.

It

uses

asmall

numberof

samplesto

ensure

that

every

brewtastes

equally

good.1908年英国都柏吉尼斯啤酒厂的首席酿酒师威廉.戈塞特提出了t检验。使用小样本确保每一桶啤酒都是一样

的高质量。小样本t统计量511911

Herman

Hollerith,

inventorof

punch-carddevices

usedto

analyse

data

in

US

censuses,merges

his

company

toform

what

will

becomeIBM,

pioneers

of

machinesto

handle

business

dataandof

early

computers.1911年在美国人口普查中使用打孔机分析数据的赫尔曼.霍尔瑞斯将收购的公司与自己公司合并形成IBM，是使用机器处理数据和早期计算机的先驱。计算机处理数据先驱52。531916

During

the

First

World

Warcar

designerFrederick

Lanchester

develops

statistical

laws

topredict

the

outcomes

of

aerial

battles:

if

you

doubletheir

size

land

armies

are

only

twice

as

strong,

butair

forces

are

four

times

as

powerful.1916年第一次世界大战期间，英国汽车的设计者兰彻斯特用统计法则预测空战结果如果陆军军队数量是对手两倍的话，其空军战斗力将是对手的四倍。第一次世界大战中统计的应用541924

Walter

Shewhartinvents

the

control

chart

toaid

industrial

production

and

management1924年美国贝尔实验室的沃尔特.休哈特发明了控制图，极大地提高了工业生产和管理水平。质量控制图551935

George

Zipf

finds

that

many

phenomena

–

riverlengths,

city

populations

–

obey

a

power

law

so

thatthe

largest

is

twice

the

size

of

the

second

largest,three

times

the

size

of

the

third,

and

so

on.1935年美国语言学家约翰.齐普夫发现许多现象，如河流长度、城市人口数、英文词汇使用频率等都遵从一条定律即出现最多的是出现第二多的两倍，是出现第三多的三倍，等等，被称为齐普夫定律，也就是我们常说的“二八原则”。齐普夫定律：“二八”原则561935

R.

A.

Fisher

revolutionises

modern

statistics.His

Design

of

Experiments

gives

waysof

decidingwhich

results

of

scientific

experiments

aresignificant

and

whichare

not.1935年英国费雪对现代统计学作出了历史性的贡献。他

的试验设计方法能够确定哪些科学试验结果是显著的，哪些不是。现代试验设计571937

Jerzy

Neyman

introduces

confidence

intervalsin

statistical

testing.

His

workleads

to

modernscientific

sampling.1937年内曼在统计检验中给出了置信区间，他的成果开创了现代科学抽样理论。置信区间581940-45

Alan

Turing

at

Bletchley

Park

cracks

theGerman

wartime

Enigma

code,using

advancedBayesian

statistics

and

Colossus,thefirstprogrammable

electronic

computer.1940-45年英国数学家阿兰.图灵在布莱切利园破解德军战争中的密码，他使用高等贝叶斯统计，并研制了巨人计算机，第一台编程的电子计算机。首台编程计算机591944

The

German

tank

problem:

the

Allies

desperately

needto

know

how

many

Panther

tanks

they

will

face

in

France

onD-Day.

Statistical

analysis

of

the

serial

numbers

ongearboxes

from

captured

tanks

indicates

how

many

of

eachare

being

produced.

Statisticians

predict

270

a

month;reports

from

intelligence

sources

predict

many

fewer.

Thetotal

turned

out

to

be

276.

Statistics

had

outperformed

spies1944年德军坦克问题：盟军急切地想知道在法国将面对

多少豹式坦克。破解了被缴获坦克变速箱上的生产序列号利用统计方法预测德军每月增加270辆，谍报人员预测比270少得多，最后实际数字是

276辆，统计预测胜过谍报工作。第二次世界大战中统计的应用1946

Cox’s

theoremderives

the

axioms

ofprobability

from

simple

logical

assumptions.1946年美国考克斯利用简单逻辑假设推出了概率论公理。概率论公理60611948

Claude

Shannon

introduces

informationtheoryand

the“bit”–fundamental

tothe

digital

age.1948年美国科学家克劳德.香农提出了信息论和“比特”的概念，开创了数字时代。信息论与比特1948-53

The

Kinsey

Report

gathers

objective

data

onhumansexual

behaviour.

A

large-scale

survey

of5000

men

and,

later,

5000

women,

it

causes

outrage.1948-53年美国金 报告收集了人类性行为的客观数据，先是对5000男性进行了调查，接着又对5000女性进行调查，报告公开后引起社会巨大愤怒和反响。性学研究62631950

Richard

Doll

and

Bradford

Hill

establish

the

linkbetween

cigarette

smoking

and

lung

cancer.

Despitefierce

opposition

the

result

is

conclusively

proved,to

hugepublic

health

benefit.1950年英国理查德.多尔和布莱德福·希尔研究了抽烟和肺癌的关系。他们顶住反对意见的压力，最终给出了研究的结果，对公众健康有益。抽烟与肺癌研究1950s

GenichiTaguchi’s

statistical

methods

toimprove

the

quality

ofautomobile

and

electronicscomponents

revolutionise

Japanese

industry,

whichfar

overtakes

western

European

rivals.20世纪50年代日本田口玄一利用统计方法改善汽车和电

子产品给日本工业界带来革命，使得日本远远超过欧美竞争者的质量。田口的试验设计64651958

The

Kaplan–Meier

estimator

gives

doctors

asimple

statistical

wayof

judging

which

treatmentswork

best.

It

has

saved

millions

oflives.1958年美国Kaplan–Meier生存分析估计方法使得医生可以用简单的统计方法判断治疗方案的有效性，解救了数百万生命。生存分析1972

David

Cox’s

proportional

hazard

model

andthe

concept

of

partial

likelihood.1972年英国大卫.考克斯使用比例风险模型和偏似然函数概念。比例风险模型与偏似然函数661977

John

Tukey

introduces

the

box-plot

orbox-and-whisker

diagram,

which

shows

thequartiles,medians

and

spread

of

data

in

a

singleimage.1977年美国约翰.图基介绍了箱线图和茎叶图，利用数据的四分位数、中位数和散布等简单直观表示数据特征。探索性数据分析671979

Bradley

Efron

introduces

bootstrapping,

asimplewayto

estimate

the

distribution

of

almostany

sample

of

data.1979年美国斯坦福大学布拉德利.艾佛容提出了自助法，一种可以估计任意样本数据抽样分布的简单方法。自助法681982

EdwardTufte

self-publishes

The

VisualDisplay

of

Quantitative

Information,

setting

newstandards

for

graphic

visualisation

of

data.1982年美国耶鲁大学爱德华·塔夫特自己印制了“数量信息的可视化”，建立了数据图形可视化新标准。图形可视化691988

Margaret

Thatcher

becomes

the

first

worldleader

to

call

for

action

onclimate

change.1988年英国首相玛格丽特·撒切尔号召采取行动面对气候变化，成为世界上首位领导人。应对气候变化701993

The

statistical

programming

language

“R”

isreleased,

nowa

standard

statistical

tool.1993年统计“R”语言发布使用，现在成为一种标准的统计工具。“R”语言是20世纪80年代从美国“S”语言基础上发展起来的。“R”语言711997

The

term“Big

Data”first

appears

in

print.1997年“大数据”一词首次见诸报端。“大数据”首次出现722002

The

amountof

informationstoreddigitallysurpasses

non-digital.2002年以数字形式存储的信息首次超过非数字信息。“数字”数据首次为主73742002

Paul

DePodesta

uses

statistics

–“sabermetrics”–

to

transform

the

fortunes

of

the

Oakland

Athleticsbaseball

team;thefilm

Moneyball

tellsthestory.2002年美国保尔.波戴斯塔应用统计方法“棒球数据分析”改变了奥克兰运动家队的命运，电影“点球成金”讲述了这一故事。体育中应用752004

Launchof

Significance

magazine.2004年“Significance”杂志创刊。“Significance”杂志创刊2008

Hal

Varian,

chief

economist

at

Google,

saysthat

statistics

will

be

“the

sexy

professionof

thenext

ten

years”.2008年美国谷歌首席经济学家预测统计学将成为未来十年最性感的职业。对统计学的预测762012

The

Large

Hadron

Collider

confirmsexistenceof

a

Higgs

boson-like

particle

with

probability

of

fivstandarddeviations–

around

one

chance

in

3.5million

that

all

they

are

seeing

is

coincidence.2012年欧洲大型电子对撞机确认希格斯玻色子粒子的存在，发生的概率是5个标准差外的小概率，即350万分之一的概率。希格斯玻色子粒子772012

Nate

Silver,

statistician,

successfully

predictsthe

result

in

all

50

states

in

the

US

Presidentialelection.

He

becomesa

media

star.2012年美国统计学家内特.席尔瓦成功地预测了美国所有50个州总统大选的结果，成为媒体明星。美国大选成功预测7879早期源头：公元前5世纪--