产业政策现有比较优势与企业表现

verypreliminary

ComparativeAdvantageandtheEffectsofPlace-BasedPolicies:EvidencefromChina’sExportProcessingZonesZhaoChen#,SandraPoncet*,RuixiangXiong##ChinaCenterofEconomicStudies,FudanUniversity*ParisSchoolofEconomics(UniversityofParis1)andCEPII2023/10/10第1页I.IntroductionIndustrypolicies,place-basedpoliciesandEconomicZonesinChinaNoconclusiveconclusionsabouttheeffectivenessofplace-basedpolicies(Moretti,2023,Bussoetal.,2023)Difficultiesinevaluationofindustrypolicies(Krugman,1983)HowtomeasureindustrypolicyHowtoidentifythecausality2023/10/10第2页I.IntroductionInthispaperTheeffectsofexport-processingzones(EPZs)ClearpolicypurposeTheroleofcomparativeadvantageDIDestimationusingaquasi-experimentofEPZsinChina.2023/10/10第3页II.BriefliteraturereviewTheeffectofindustrypolicies(Cai,HarrisonandLin,2023)TariffpolicyhaspositiveimpactonTFPofindustrieswithcomparativeadvantageComments:Tariffpolicy&TFPComparativeadvantage:exportingfirmsPolicyofprotectionvs.policyofpromotion第4页II.BriefliteraturereviewPolicyevaluationofEconomicZonesCity-leveldata(Wei,1995;Wang,2023;Alderetal.,2023)Firm-leveldata(HeadandRies,1996;SchminkeandVanBiesebroeck,2023)Comments:policyatcity-level,nowithincitydifferenceFewconcernabouttheheterogeneousimpactThispaper:Policydifferenceatcity-industrylevelComparativeadvantage第5页III.BackgroundofChina’sEPZsAim:promoteexportsbypreferentialpoliciesEstablishment:2023/10/10EstablishmentyearNumberofEPZs2023152023320238202313202318total57第6页III.BackgroundofChina’sEPZsOnlysomeindustrieschosenaskeyindustriescouldenjoypreferentialpoliciesPreferentialpolicies

inEPZs：freeVAT,freetradeforimportedcomponents;facilitatefirm’sexportingoutside：taxreimbursementwhenprovidingfirmsinEPZswithintermediategoods2023/10/10第7页IV.DataDatasourceChinaannualsurveyofmanufacturingfirmsfrom1998to2023SampleTomakethecitiesmorecomparable,weonlyincludethecitieshavingEPZsby20232023/10/10第8页3.DataDatacleaningBasiccleaning(Brandtetal.,2023,Nieetal.,2023)Industryclassificationadjustment(Yangetal.,2023)Administrativedivisionadjustment(Baoetal.,2023)PricedeflatorExportingfirms(1998-2023)Matchingkeyindustries2023/10/10第9页4.EmpiricalResults2023/10/10第10页4.EmpiricalResultsHowtodefinecomparativeadvantage(CA):Qci=1,iflocationentropyforindustryiincityc>1beforeEPZestablishment,otherwise0RegressionFullsampleSubsamplewithCASubsamplewithoutCATriple-interactiontermwithQci2023/10/10第11页4.1Basicmodel

(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)Full-sampleWithoutCAWithCAFull-sampleWithoutCAWithCA

OLSOLSOLSFEFEFET-0.0477-0.0106-0.0547-0.0594***-0.0317-0.0640***(0.0326)(0.0344)(0.0360)(0.0191)(0.0291)(0.0217)K-0.03320.00541-0.0414(0.0337)(0.0364)(0.0394)T*K

0.0663**0.009030.0830***0.104***0.03670.123***(0.0255)(0.0299)(0.0283)(0.0157)(0.0303)(0.0169)Constant-0.909***-1.388***-0.404-0.247-0.328*-0.229(0.232)(0.143)(0.283)(0.243)(0.169)(0.313)Cluster-CityYESYESYESYESYESYESObs338,21197,966240,245338,21197,966240,245R-squared0.9120.9120.9130.9190.9160.921Numberofpanelid

75,19722,46452,7332023/10/10第12页4.2long-runeffectsReferencegroup:n=-5[-7,-6,-5](n=-4)*Kci(n=-3)*Kci

……(n=4)*Kci

(n=5)*Kci

第13页4.2long-runeffects:fullsample2023/10/10第14页4.2long-runeffects:sub-samplew/oCA2023/10/10第15页4.2long-runeffects:sub-samplewithCA2023/10/10第16页5.Robustnesschecks2023/10/10第17页5.1Usinginteractionterms（FE）T-0.0185(0.0325)T*K

0.0451(0.0319)T*Q

-0.0549*(0.0330)T*K*Q

0.0811**(0.0333)Constant-0.241(0.240)Cluster-cityYESObservations338,211R-squared0.919Numberofpanelid75,1972023/10/10第18页5.2Consideringfirm’srelocation

2023/10/10(1)(2)(3)

full-sampleWithoutCAWithCAT-0.0481**-0.0192-0.0539**(0.0194)(0.0282)(0.0225)T*K0.108***0.03760.128***(0.0159)(0.0287)(0.0172)Constant-0.265-0.356**-0.253(0.217)(0.162)(0.276)Cluster-CityYESYESYESObservations277,61079,517198,093R-squared0.9190.9160.921Numberofpanelid56,09016,55539,535第19页5.3Omittedgovernanceabilities（FE）(1)(2)(3)Full-sampleWithoutCAWithCAT-0.0169-0.0115-0.0149(0.0347)(0.0441)(0.0378)T*K0.0873***0.003930.108***(0.0281)(0.0434)(0.0311)Constant-0.0469-0.144-0.0499(0.269)(0.147)(0.364)Cluster-CityYESYESYESObservations158,34045,687112,653R-squared0.9200.9180.921Numberofpanelid34,56910,23324,3362023/10/10第20页5.4Higherexportintensityfirms（FE）

Prologis（2023）

(1)(2)(3)Full-sampleWithoutCAWithCAT-0.0524**-0.00726-0.0652**(0.0256)(0.0354)(0.0266)T*K

0.110***0.03460.130***(0.0215)(0.0457)(0.0231)Constant-0.539-0.570**-0.546(0.436)(0.225)(0.554)Cluster-CityYESYESYESObservations166,80947,361119,448R-squared0.9300.9320.930Numberofpanelid38,76611,51227,2542023/10/10第21页6.ConclusionsandimplicationsConclusionsAverage