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NBERWORKINGPAPERSERIES
THEIMPACTOFPUBLICSCHOOLCHOICE:EVIDENCEFROMLOSANGELES'ZONESOFCHOICE
ChristopherCampos
CaitlinKearns
WorkingPaper31553
/papers/w31553
NATIONALBUREAUOFECONOMICRESEARCH
1050MassachusettsAvenue
Cambridge,MA02138
August2023
WearethankfultoChrisWaltersandJesseRothsteinfortheirextensivesupportandguidance.WearethankfulforcommentsandfeedbackfromNatalieBau,ChristinaBrown,DavidCard,BruceFuller,EzequielGarcia-Lembergman,AndresGonzalez-Lira,HilaryHoynes,LeticiaJuarez,AdamKapor,PatKline,JulienLafortune,TomasLarroucau,ToddMesser,ConradMiller,PabloMuñoz,ChristopherNeilson,MattNotowidigdo,MathieuPedemonte,TatianaReyes,andReedWalker.WealsothankseminarparticipantsatBostonUniversity,BrownUniversity,theFederalReserveBankofChicago,theFederalReserveBankofNewYork,HarvardUniversity,NorthwesternUniversity,theUniversityofChicagoBoothSchoolofBusiness,UCIrvine,UCLAAndersonSchoolofManagement,theUniversityofChicagoHarrisSchoolofPublicPolicy,UNC-ChapelHill,USC,UT-Austin,theUniversityofWashington,PrincetonUniversity,theUniversityofChicago,theUniversityofFlorida,theUniversityofPennsylvania,andtheNBERFall2021Educationmeetinggroup.Last,thisprojectwouldnothavebeenpossiblewithoutthesupportofDuniaFernandez,JesusAngulo,KathyHayes,CrystalJewett,RakeshKumar,andKevonTucker-Seeley,whoprovidedinstitutionalsupport,information,anddata.WegratefullyacknowledgefundingfromtheCenterforLaborEconomics.Allremainingerrorsareourown.TheviewsexpressedhereinarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsoftheNationalBureauofEconomicResearch.
Atleastoneco-authorhasdisclosedadditionalrelationshipsofpotentialrelevanceforthisresearch.Furtherinformationisavailableonlineat/papers/w31553
NBERworkingpapersarecirculatedfordiscussionandcommentpurposes.Theyhavenotbeenpeer-reviewedorbeensubjecttothereviewbytheNBERBoardofDirectorsthataccompaniesofficialNBERpublications.
©2023byChristopherCamposandCaitlinKearns.Allrightsreserved.Shortsectionsoftext,nottoexceedtwoparagraphs,maybequotedwithoutexplicitpermissionprovidedthatfullcredit,including©notice,isgiventothesource.
TheImpactofPublicSchoolChoice:EvidencefromLosAngeles'ZonesofChoiceChristopherCamposandCaitlinKearns
NBERWorkingPaperNo.31553
August2023
JELNo.I20,I21,I24
ABSTRACT
Doesaschooldistrictthatexpandsschoolchoiceprovidebetteroutcomesforstudentsthananeighborhood-basedassignmentsystem?ThispaperstudiestheZonesofChoice(ZOC)program,aschoolchoiceinitiativeoftheLosAngelesUnifiedSchoolDistrict(LAUSD)thatcreatedsmallhighschoolmarketsinsomeneighborhoodsbutleftattendance-zoneboundariesinplacethroughouttherestofthedistrict.Westudymarket-levelimpactsofchoiceonstudentachievementandcollegeenrollmentusingadifferences-in-differencesdesign.StudentoutcomesinZOCmarketsincreasedmarkedly,narrowingachievementandcollegeenrollmentgapsbetweenZOCneighborhoodsandtherestofthedistrict.TheeffectsofZOCarelargerforschoolsexposedtomorecompetition,supportingthenotionthatcompetitionisakeychannel.Demandestimatessuggestfamiliesplacesubstantialweightonschools'academicquality,providingschoolswithcompetition-inducedincentivestoimprovetheireffectiveness.Theevidencedemonstratesthatpublicschoolchoiceprogramshavethepotentialtoimproveschoolqualityandreduceneighborhood-baseddisparitiesineducationalopportunity.
ChristopherCampos
BoothSchoolofBusiness
UniversityofChicago
5807SouthWoodlawnAvenue
Chicago,IL60637
andNBER
Christopher.Campos@
CaitlinKearns
ckearns@
Adataappendixisavailableat/data-appendix/w31553
1
IIntroduction
Inrecentyears,centralizedschoolchoicesystemshavebecomeincreasinglypopularforallocating
K-12studentstoschools,ashiftawayfromtraditionalneighborhood-basedassignment(Ab-dulkadiroğluandSönmez2003;Neilson2021).Thisalternativeapproachtoeducationmarketsexpandsstudents’accesstoeffectiveschools,introducespotentialimprovementsinallocativeefficiency,andundercertainconditions,competitioncanleadtoimprovementsinthequalityofeducation(ChubbandMoe1990;Friedman1955;Hoxby2000,2003).Largeschooldistricts,suchasthoseinNewYorkCity,Denver,andNewOrleanshaveadoptedsuchsystems(Abdulka-diroğlu,AgarwalandPathak2017;HarrisandLarsen2015;PathakandSönmez2008,2013).
However,existingresearchisunclearonhowstudentoutcomescompareunderthetwomarket
structures.Doesapublicschooldistrictthatexpandsschoolchoiceprovidebetteroutcomesforstudentsthananeighborhood-basedassignmentsystem?Whatmarket-leveleffectsdosystemsofpublicschoolchoiceproduce,ifany?
ThispapertacklestheseimportantquestionsbystudyingtheZonesofChoice(ZOC)pro-gram,aninitiativeoftheLosAngelesUnifiedSchoolDistrict(LAUSD).Theprogram’sdesign
providesanaturalexperimentwhereroughly30–40percentofthedistrictoperatesunderschool
choicesystemsmirroringexpansionsinotherdistricts,whiletheremainingneighborhoodsop-erateunderthestatusquoofneighborhoodassignment.Inparticular,theprogramcreatessmalllocalhighschoolmarketsofvaryingsizeinsomeneighborhoodsbutleavestraditionalattendancezoneboundariesinplacethroughouttherestofthedistrict.ZOCstudentsareeligibletoattendanyschoolwithintheirneighborhood-basedzone,evenifitisnottheclosestone,andacentralizedmechanismisusedtorationaccesstooversubscribedschools.Thedesignofthisprogramprovidesanovelsettingtostudymarket-leveleffectsofchoiceasopposedtoindividualeffectsofchoicethatarecommoninliterature(Abdulkadiroğluetal.2011;Abdulka-diroğlu,PathakandWalters2018;Cullen,JacobandLevitt2006).Thefocusonmarket-leveleffects,whichapproximategeneralequilibrium-likeeffectsfromareduced-formperspective,fillsagapintheliteratureandprovidesamorecompleteoverviewoftheunderlyingchannelsandmechanismsoftheshort-andmedium-runeffectsofchoiceandcompetition.
Weorienttheempiricalanalysisaroundastylizedmodelofschoolchoiceandcompetitioninwhichfamilieschooseaschoolbasedonitsproximity,itsquality,andtheiridiosyncratictastes.Onthesupplyside,weassumeschoolprincipalsarerewardedforlargermarketsharesbutmustexertefforttoimproveschoolquality.WethenmodelZOCasanexpansionofhouseholds’choiceset,simultaneouslyintroducingstrategicconsiderationsbetweenschoolsintheirqualitydetermination.Themodelgivesrisetoasimplestatisticthatcaptureshouseholds’
expectedwelfaregainfromthechoicesetexpansion:“optionvaluegain”(OVG).Thechanging
distributionofOVGsacrossstudentsinresponsetocompetitiongovernsschools’incentivestoincreasequalityandthusservesasausefulempiricalstatistictostudytheroleofcompetitiveeffects.ThetheoreticalframeworkpredictsthattheintroductionofZOCwillimproveschoolqualityandtheimprovementwillbeconcentratedamongschoolsexposedtomorecompetition
asmeasuredbyOVG.
Wetestthesepredictionsusingadifference-in-differencesdesignthatcompareschangesin
2
outcomesbetweenZOCandnon-ZOCstudents.ToisolatetheimpactofZOConschoolquality,wedecomposetreatmenteffectsintoeffectsonstudent-schoolmatchqualityandeffectsonschools’valueadded,interpretingthelatterasameasureofschoolquality.Estimatesofquantiletreatmenteffectsonschoolqualitythenallowustoassesswhetherthelowest-performingschoolsimprovemore.Wethenpivottothedemandsideandusestudents’rank-orderedpreference
liststoestimatepreferencesandcalculateOVGempirically.LookingattheheterogeneityoftreatmenteffectswithrespecttoOVGallowsustostudyhowthecausalimpactsofZOCvarywiththeextentofcompetition.Last,studyingpreferencesforschoolqualityallowusto
reconcileZOCsupply-sideeffectswiththeincentivesschoolsfacedascapturedthroughthechoicesfamiliesmake.
WefindlargepositiveeffectsofZOConstudentachievementandfour-yearcollegeenroll-ment.Event-studyestimatesrevealthatbythesixthyearoftheprogram,ZOCstudents’
Englishandlanguagearts(ELA)examperformanceimprovedby0.16σrelativetocomparablenon-ZOCstudents.ZOCalsoraisedfour-yearcollegeenrollmentbyroughly5percentagepoints,a25percentincreasefromthebaselineZOCstudentmean,aneffectmostlyexplainedbyin-
creasesinenrollmentatCaliforniaStateUniversity(CSU)campuses.Bothoftheseeffectsleadtovastreductionsinbetween-neighborhoodinequalityineducationaloutcomes.Adecomposi-tionoftheachievementimpactsrevealsthatimprovementsinschoolqualitymostlyexplaintheeffects,leadingtoasubstantialreductioninneighborhood-basedachievementgaps.Next,wefindthatimprovementsinschoolqualityareconcentratedamongthelowest-performingschools,afindingconsistentwiththetheoreticalframework.Furthersupportingthecompetitiveeffectshypothesis,wefindthattheeffectsoftheprogramarelargerforschoolsandstudentswith
higherOVGs.Thesefindingssuggeststhatthecompetition-inducedincentivesgeneratedbyZOCareakeymechanismforitseffectsonschoolperformance.
Oursubsequentanalysispivotstostudyingthedemandside.Estimatesofpreferences
derivedfromrank-orderedpreferencelistsareconsistentwiththeZOCeffects.Wefindthatparents’reportedpreferencesplaceahigherweightonschooleffectivenesscomparedtootherschoolcharacteristics,includingaschool’sstudentbody.Thisfindingsupportsthenotionthatparents’choicesprovideschoolstheincentivestoimprovestudentlearning.Thisfindingcontrastswithotherstudies’findings(e.g.,Abdulkadiroğluetal.2020andRothstein2006)andwithevidencethatlower-incomefamiliesarelesssensitivetoschoolquality(Burgessetal.2015;Hastings,KaneandStaiger2005).Wehypothesizethatthehomogeneityoffamilieswithrespecttoethnicityandsocioeconomicstatusreducestothescopetosortintoschoolsbasedoneasilyobservablepeerattributes.Thisnaturallyleadstoasettingwherefamiliesmaysystematicallychooseschoolsbasedonotherschoolattributesmorelikelytocorrelatewithschoolquality.RecentevidencefromCampos(2023)findsthatfamilies’beliefsaboutschoolqualityarenottoofarofffromthetruth,alleviatingconcernsthatfamiliesmayimperfectlyperceiveschoolquality.
Weaddressavarietyofconcernsrelatedtoourempiricalapproach.Wefindthatalterna-
tivesourcesofcompetitionfromcharterandmagnetschoolsdonotdifferentiallyaffectZOCneighborhoods,alleviatingconcernsthatourresultsaredrivenbythesealternativeschoolingmodels.Wealsofindthatthecompositionofstudentsdidnotdifferentiallychangeafterthe
3
programexpansion.Last,weconductanintent-to-treat-likeanalysisandfindqualitativelysimilarresults.
Toprobeatadditionalmechanisms,wefindseveralpiecesofevidencesuggestingthatchangesinschoolingpracticesplayedarole.Themostrelevantrelatestoanuptickinsus-pensions,suggestingthatZOCschoolspivotedtowardaschoolingpracticestronglycorrelatedwiththeno-excusesapproachtourbaneducation,alsoshowntoelevatetheoutcomesofBlack
andLatinochildreninothersettings(Angrist,PathakandWalters2013;DobbieandFryerJr2011;Fryer2014).1Weconcludebydemonstratingthatintermediateoutcomesarealsoaf-fected;namelythatstudentsimprovedtheircollegepreparedness,ascapturedbychangesin
courseportfolioandimprovedSATscores,conditionalontakingtheSAT.Overall,weaddtothegrowingbodyofevidencesuggestingthattheno-excuses-likepractices—thatis,disciplinarypractices—elevatesstudentoutcomesinurbansettings,butwealsoshowthatstudentsinthissettingwerepositiveabouttheresultingchanges.
WearguethatcertainfeaturesofZOCmayexplainwhyourfindingscontrastwiththose
ofmanypreviousstudies.ZOCallowsforrelativelypersonalizedinteractionsbetweenZOCadministratorsandparents,makingiteasierforparentstoacquireinformation(Page,CastlemanandMeyer2020).Inparticular,administrator-ledinformationsessionsprovideparentswithapotentiallyrichopportunitytolearnaboutdifferencesinschoolquality.Moreover,because
choiceiswithinzonesratherthandistrictwide,ZOCparentsfacemanageablechoicesets,
whichmayhelpthemavoidthechoiceoverloadissuespresentinotherschoolchoicesettings(Beuermannetal.2023;Corcoranetal.2018).Thesefeaturescombinetocreateasettinginwhichacquiringadequateinformationaboutschoolsismorelikely.Last,asZOCneighborhoodsarehighlysegregated,theoptionsavailabletofamiliesdifferedminimallyintermsofstudentbodycomposition,potentiallynudgingparentstoselectschoolsintermsofothercharacteristicsmorecorrelatedwithschooleffectiveness.
Thispapercontributestoseveralstrandsofresearch.Mostclosely,itcontributestothe
literaturestudyingthesupply-sideeffectsofschoolchoicepoliciesorreforms.Onestrandoftheliteraturereliesoncross-districtorcross-municipalitycomparisonstoestimatetheeffectsofchoice(Hoxby2000,2003;HsiehandUrquiola2006;Rothstein2007)andreachesmixedconclusions.Otherpapershavefocusedonchoiceoptions,suchasCatholic,voucher,orcharterschools,thatdirectlycompetewithnearbyschooldistrictsforstudents(Card,DooleyandPayne2010;Dee1998;Neal1997).Ourpaperfocusesonwithin-districtpublicschoolcompetitionand,asaconsequence,isoneofthefirstpiecesofevidencedemonstratingthattheincreasinglypopulardistrict-widechoicereformscanmeaningfullyimprovestudentoutcomesandreduceeducationalinequality.Inaddition,weprovidecompellingevidencethatcompetitioninthepublicsectorisakeymechanismexplainingtheimprovementsinstudentoutcomes.
Anothersetofpapersfocusontheindividualeffectsofschoolchoice(Abdulkadiroğluetal.2011;Abdulkadiroğlu,PathakandWalters2018;Cullen,JacobandLevitt2006;Demingetal.2014;MuralidharanandSundararaman2015).Ourpapergoesbeyondthatandfocusesonmarket-leveleffectswhichrelatetobenefitsaccruedtoallstudentsinthemarket,asopposedto
1Wefindcomplementaryevidencethattrackingpracticesandclassroomassignmentpolicieschanged,alludingtofurtherchangesinschoolingpracticesnotnecessarilyassociatedwiththeno-excusesapproach.
4
justparticipants.Thenaturalexperimentweleverageallowsustoestimatehowtwootherwiseseeminglysimilartrendingmarketsevolvebothintheshort-andmedium-run.Therefore,thispaperisrelevanttothegrowingnumberofdistrictsandmunicipalitiesaroundtheworldintroducingchoicethroughcentralizedassignmentsystems(Neilson2021)andhighlightsthepotentialofthesesystemstogeneratesustainedimprovementsinstudentoutcomesrelativetotraditionalneighborhood-basedassignment.
Last,thispaperdemonstratesthatanimportantneighborhoodattribute—schoolquality—ismalleableandthuscontributestotheliteraturestudyingtheimpactsofneighborhoods(Bergmanetal.2019;ChettyandHendren2018;Chetty,HendrenandKatz2016;Chyn2018;Kling,LiebmanandKatz2007).Althoughrecentevidencedemonstratesthatmovingtohigher-opportunityneighborhoodstendstoproducepositivelong-runoutcomes,itremainsanopenquestionwhatfactorsmediatetheseeffects(ChynandKatz2021).Acommonhypothesispointstodifferencesinschoolquality.Forexample,Laliberté(2021)findsthatvariationin
schoolqualityacrossneighborhoodsexplainsroughly50–70percentoftheeffectsofneighbor-hoodsinMontreal,Canada.Ourpapershowsthatapotentialkeydeterminantofneighbor-hoodqualityismalleableandschool-orneighborhood-specificpoliciesareameansofreducing
neighborhood-baseddisparitiesinoutcomes(FryerandKatz2013).
Therestofthispaperisorganizedasfollows.SectionIIoutlinesthefeaturesoftheprogramandourdatasources.SectionIIIoutlinestheconceptualframeworkforthesubsequentanalysis,andSectionIVdiscussesthedata.SectionVreportsevidenceonhowtheprogramaffectedstudentachievementandcollegeenrollment.SectionVIestimatesdemandandstudiestheroleofcompetition,andSectionVIIpresentsevidenceonadditionalmechanismsanddiscussesinstitutionalfeaturesthatmayhavecontributedtotheresults.SectionVIIIconcludes.
IIInstitutionalDetails
II.ATheChoiceLandscapeinLosAngelesandaBriefHistoryofZOC
ZOCisaninitiativeofLAUSD,thesecond-largestschooldistrictintheUnitedStates.ItisasignificantexpansionofchoiceforhighschoolsinLosAngeles,buttherewasanexistingandrapidlychangingchoicelandscapethatprecededtheprogram.BeforeZOC,familiesinLos
Angeleshadtheoptiontoenrollincharterschools,applytomagnetprogramswithinLAUSD,andoptforintra-districttransfers,providedcapacity.TheZOCexpansionispartlyaresponsetotheevolvingchoicelandscapeandtheenrollmenttrendsthatprecededit.
Ashasbeencommoninseverallargeurbanschooldistrictsaroundthecountry,LAUSDcontinuestoexperienceenrollmentdecline,potentiallyamplifiedbychartergrowth(seeOnlineAppendixFiguresA.1andA.2).ThecharterlandscapewasrapidlyevolvinginthedecadebeforetheZOCexpansion.Thenumberofcharterhighschools,asreportedintheCommonCoreData,increasedfrom65in2002to306in2012.CharterhighschoolsresidinginZOC
neighborhoodsrepresented38percentofthecharterschoolgrowthoverthatdecade.Families’out-of-districtoptionsincreasedyearly,andasaconsequence,LAUSDhighschoolenrollment
startedadownwardtrendin2008.
Magnetprogramsaremoreprevalentthanintra-districttransfers,sowediscussthisoptionin
5
detail.MagnetprogramtrendsinthedecadeprecedingtheZOCexpansionweremorestagnant
comparedtochartergrowth.Therewere38magnetprogramsavailabletohighschoolstudentsuntil2010,withthecreationof4newonesbetween2010and2012.Magnetenrollmentwasflat,representingroughly8–9percentofallLAUSDhighschoolenrollmentduringthistimeperiod.Evenastheseprogramshaveexpandedacrossthedistrict,2018wastheyearwiththelargestmarketshareof12.8percent.Insummary,whilefamilieshavemanyoptions,relativelyfewfamiliesoptforthemagnethighschoolsector.
ZOCemergedfromtheBelmontZoneofChoice,locatedinthePicoUnionareaofdown-
townLosAngeles.Thiscommunity-basedprogramcombinedseveralaspectsofthevariousongoingreforms.Apressingconcernamongcommunityadvocateswastheovercrowdingoftheirneighborhoodschools.TheschoolconstructionprogramstudiedinLafortune,RothsteinandSchanzenbach(2018)addressedtheovercrowdingbycreatinglargehighschoolcomplexesthathousedmultiplepilotschoolsandsmalllearningcommunities.2Communityorganizers
helpeddeveloptheBelmontZoneofChoicebycreatinganinformalenrollmentandassignmentsystemforeligibleresidents.FamiliesresidingwithintheBelmontZoneofChoicewereeligibletoapplytothevariousschoolslocatedwithinthezone.TheBelmontpilotstartedin2007andcontinuedinformallyforfiveyears.
Thecontinuingexodusofstudentsfromthedistrictandincreasingcommunitypressureforaccesstobetterschoolspartlyledtheschoolboardtoconsiderremovingattendancezonebound-aries(seeResolutiontoExamineIncreasingChoiceandRemovingBoundariesfromNeighbor-
hoodSchools)anddevisingotherwaysofexpandingschoolchoice(seeResolutiononExpandingEnrollmentandEqualAccessthroughLAUSDChoice)inearly2012.Theschoolboard’staskforcerecognizedthecommunity’spositiveresponsetotheBelmontpilotandbeganreplicatingthemodelinothersuitableneighborhoods.ByJuly2012,aZOCofficewasestablishedalongwith16zones.FigureIshowsthatin2010,theprogrammostlycovereddisadvantagedstudents. IncontrasttotheBelmontZoneofChoice,thenewzoneswereorganizedandadministeredbyacentraldistrictofficeandusedformalassignmentandenrollmentmechanisms.Theyalsohadambitiousgoals:accesstomoreeffectiveschools,improvementinstudent-schoolmatchquality,andincreasedparentalinvolvement.Eachofthesepointswasexplicitlymentionedin
theschoolboardminutesandmotivatedtheexpansionofZOC.
II.BProgramFeaturesandIncentives
ZOCexpandsstudents’highschooloptionsbycombiningcatchmentareasintochoicezonesand,insomecases,pullingschoolswithundefinedassignmentareasintozones.Thiseffectivelyexpandsfamilies’choicesetstoincludeseveralnearbyoptions.Theprogramexpansionwestudyincludesothernotablechangesaswell.
TheprogramiscentrallyrunbyateamofadministratorswhofocusonlyonaspectsofZOCthatrunonayearlycycle.Themosttime-extensiveperiodoftheyearistheapplicationcycleinwhichparentsofeighth-gradestudentssubmitzone-specificapplicationscontainingrank-
2LAUSDdefinespilotschoolsasanetworkofpublicschoolsthathaveautonomyoverbudget,staffing,gov-ernance,curriculumandassessment,andtheschoolcalendar.Tiestothelaborunionremainandisakeydistinctionbetweennon-LAUSDcharterschoolsandLAUSDpilotschools.
6
orderedpreferencelists.Admissionintoanyparticularschoolisnotguaranteed,althoughsomepriorityisgivenbasedonproximity,incumbency,andsiblingstatus.
Theneighborhood-basedprogramdesignallowshighschoolstoknowwheretheirpooloffuturestudentsisenrolled.Schoolanddistrictadministratorstakeadvantageofthisfeaturebycoordinatingvariousparentalinformationalsessionshostedbyeitherfeedermiddleschoolsorcandidatehighschools.Concurrently,someclustersofschoolsorganizecommunityeventsoutsideofschoolhourstopitchtheirschoolstopotentialstudents.Theseeventscontinueforroughlysixweeksuntilrank-orderedpreferenceapplicationsaredueinmid-November.
Althoughschoolsdifferintheamountofefforttheydevotetorecruitment,theydonothavetheleveragetogiveprioritytoparticularstudentsassomeschoolscaninotherschoolchoicesettings.
Theprogramexpansionalsoformalizesassignmentpracticesacrossallzones.Theschooldistrictusesparents’rank-orderedpreferenceliststodetermineassignmentsusingacentralizedalgorithm,analogoustoaBoston—orimmediateacceptance—mechanism.Schoolsthatareoversubscribedfillseatsusingrandomlyassignedlotterynumbersandschool-specificpriorities.
BecauseLAUSDusesanimmediateacceptancemechanism,parentshavestrategicincentivesandmaychoosetomisreporttheirpreferencestoguaranteeadmissionintoschoolstheymightnotpreferthemost.
Strategicincentivesnotwithstanding,manyparentslistnon-neighborhoodschoolsastheirmostpreferredoptions.FigureIIshowsthatroughly65–70percentofapplicantslistaschoolthatisnottheirneighborhoodschoolastheirmostpreferredoption.Prioritiesandcapacityconstraintsprecludeallapplicantsfromenrollingintheirmostpreferredschool,soapproxi-
mately30percentofapplicantsenrollinaschoolthatisnottheirneighborhoodschool.The30percentafterthepolicyexpansionisanoticeableincreasefrom7percenttheyearbefore.
Importantly,althoughcapacityconstraintsarebindingatsomeschoolswithineachzone,the
concurrentdistrict-wideenrollmentdeclineprovidesasettinginwhichschoolscanabsorbaddi-tionalstudents.Thedecliningenrollmentmeansthatmostschools,includinginitiallypopularschools,arenotoperatingatcapacity,makingthethreatofcompetitionmoresignificant.
PublicschoolsinLosAngeleshaveseveralreasonstocareaboutlosingstudentstocom-petitorsintheirzone.AlthoughLAUSDdoesnotemployastudent-centeredfundingmodelinwhichschoolbudgetsareexactlyproportionaltostudentenrollment,rigidschedulesdetermineresourceandstaffallocation.Adropinenrollmentcouldmeanschoolshavetoreducetheirteaching,counseling,nursing,oradministrativestaff.Anecdotalevidencesuggestsprincipalscareaboutthispossibility,providingthemwithincentivestocareabouttheirschools’zonemarketshare.
Another,admittedlymorespeculative,reasonisprincipals’careerconcerns.Anextensive
literaturehasdocumentedthepotentialofcareerconcernstodynamicallyinduceincentivesforpublicsectorworkers(Dewatripont,JewittandTirole1999).InLAUSD,roughly10percent
ofprincipalsbetween2008and2018tookadministrativepositionsatthedistrictheadquarters,
whichcanbeseenasglitteringprizes(Bertrandetal.2020).Viewedthroughthislens,ZOCintroducesatournament-likestructure,inthesenseofLazearandRosen(1981),inwhichprincipalshaveincentivestooutperformotherprincipals.
7
Thenextsectionpresentsaconceptualframeworkthattakestheseincentivesasgiveninastylizedmodelofschoolchoiceandcompetition.Themodelimplicationsguidemostoftheempiricalexercisesthroughouttherestofthepaper.
IIIConceptualFramework
Webeginwithastylizedmodelofthestatusquothatconsistsofneighborhoodmonopolies
competingwithanoutsideoption,andthenweintroduceZOC,highlightinghowtheprogramalteredschoolincentives,anddiscussitspotentialbenefits.3Weusejtodenotebothschoolsandneighborhoods,indicatingthereisoneschoolperneighborhood.Letstudentsindexedbyiresideinneighborhoodj(i)∈{1,···,J},whichcontainsoneschoolalsoindexedbyj.Eachschooljoperatesasamonopolyinitsneighborhoodbutfacescompetitionfromanoutside
optionindexedby0.
Studentscanenrollineithertheirneighborhoodschoolj(i)ortheoutsideoption.Studenti’sutilityfromattendingschoolj∈{0,j(i)}is
Uij=U(αj,Xi,dij,εij)=Vij(αj,Xi,dij)+εij,
whereαjisschoolqualityasdefinedintheachievementmodelinOnlineAppendixC,dijisdistancetoschoolj,Xicapturesobservableheter
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