ITIF-“重建得更好”需要数字基础设施建设（英文）-2021.5-9正式版

“BuildingBackBetter”RequiresBuildingInDigital

ROBERTD.ATKINSON|MAY2021

Anynationalinfrastructurepackageshouldinclude21stcenturydigitalinfrastructure—notonlyinvestmentsincoredigitalinfrastructure,suchasbroadbandandgovernmentITsystems,butalsohybrid-digitalupgradestoexistingphysicalinfrastructuretoimproveitsperformance.

KEYTAKEAWAYS

Puttingdigitalatthecenterofaninfrastructureplanwillcreatejobs.Comparedtotraditionalinfrastructure,itwillalsogeneratesuperiorlonger-termeconomicgrowth,competitiveness,nationalsecurity,andenvironmentalbenefits.

Chinahasannouncedamassiveinfrastructurepackagetoinvestin“innovationinfrastructures”ofthefuture,includingdigitalinfrastructuresuchas5Gand6Gnetworks,industrialInternet,smartgrid,andsmartcities.

AU.S.infrastructurepackageshouldincludesignificantfundingfordigitalinfrastructure,includingwirelineandwirelessbroadbandandfundingforlocal,state,andnationalgovernmentagenciestosignificantlyupgradelegacyITsystems.

Thepackagealsoshouldensurefundsgotoupgradinganddigitizingtheelectricitygrid,alongwithphysicalinfrastructuresuchaswater,waste,androadsystems,andsupportingsmartcities,farms,factories,andothersectors.

INFORMATIONTECHNOLOGY&INNOVATIONFOUNDATION | MAY2021

INTRODUCTION

JoeBidenranforpresidentonthethemeof“buildbackbetter.”Withhisproposed$2trillioninfrastructureplan,thepresidentiscertainlyseekingtobuildback.

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Indeed,thisisaonce-in-a-generationopportunitytomakeabig,boldinvestmenttomoveAmericaforward.Butunlessthisplanfullyembracesdigitalinfrastructure,andnotjustasphaltandpipes,itwillhavebuiltback,butnot“better.”

Assuch,astheadministrationandCongressnegotiatethesize,composition,andfundingofamajornationalinfrastructureplan,theyneedtoensurethatitincludesafocuson21stcenturydigitalinfrastructure.Thismeansnotonlyinvestmentsincoredigitalinfrastructure,suchaswirelessandwirelinebroadbandandgovernmentITsystems,butalsohybriddigitalinfrastructurewhereinexistingphysicalinfrastructure—suchasroadandbridges,electricgrids,watersystems,andevencities—areupgradedwithdigitaltechnologiestodramaticallyimproveperformance,addresscybersecurityneeds,andpromoteeconomicopportunity.(TheInformationTechnologyandInnovationFoundation(ITIF)haswrittenelsewhereabouttheimportanceofsupportingresearchanddevelopmentintheinfrastructurepackageaswell.

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)

Americawillloseacriticalopportunityiftheinfrastructurepackagefocuseson20thcenturyinfrastructurewhileChinaleapfrogsaheadwith21stcenturyinfrastructure.

AcommitmenttodigitalisthepathChinaisfollowingasitmakesmassiveinvestments($1.4trillionto$2.5trillionoverthenextfiveyears)in“innovativeinfrastructure”ofthefuture,includingindigitalinfrastructuresuchas5Gand6Gnetworks,industrialInternet(including“Internetofthings”),smartgrid,andnextgenerationInternetarchitecture.

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Inaddition,25Chineseprovinceshavelaunchedtheirowndigitalinfrastructureprojects,addingevenmoretothatinvestment.Americawillloseacriticalopportunityiftheinfrastructurepackagefocuseson20thcenturyinfrastructurewhileChinaleapfrogsaheadwith21stcenturyinfrastructure.

Puttingdigital(andnotjustbroadband)atthecenteroftheinfrastructureplanwillcreatejobs(justastraditionalinfrastructurewill),butunliketraditionalinfrastructureitwillgeneratesuperiorlonger-termeconomicgrowth,competitiveness,nationalsecurity,andenvironmentalbenefits.Andjustasbuildinghighwaysandwatersystemscanbringeconomicopportunitiestomorepartsofthecountry,sotoocaninvestingindigitalinfrastructureensurethatallAmericanshaveanopportunitytoparticipateinthedigitaleconomy.Andamore-robustdigitalinfrastructurewouldmakeAmericamoreresilient,shouldweonceagainbeforcedtoengageinwidespreadsocialdistancing,withdigitaltechnologiesplayingakeyrole.

Assuch,theinfrastructurepackageshouldincludesignificantfundingforwirelineandwirelessbroadband;upgradinganddigitizingthenation’selectricgrid;upgradingphysicalinfrastructure,suchaswater,waste,androadsystems,withdigitaltechnologies;supportsmartcities,buildings,farms,factories,andothersectors;andfundinglocal,state,andnationalgovernmentagenciestosignificantlyupgradelegacyITsystemswithmoresecure,modern,andefficientalternatives.

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INFRASTRUCTUREFUNDINGGOALS

Anynationalinfrastructurepackageshouldhavethreeprincipalgoals:

Improveinfrastructure:Themaingoalshouldbetoimprovethenation’sinfrastructure,whichisthebasisforeconomicactivityandqualityoflife.Butifthatcanbeaccomplishedinwaysthatatthesametimeachieveothergoals,suchascompetitivenessorproductivity,policymakersshouldtakeadvantageofthoseopportunities.

Spurproductivitygrowth:Thewidelyacceptedviewthatinfrastructurespendingisaninvestmentisnolongertrue.Ifinfrastructureinvestmentdoesnotboostproductivitygrowth,thenitisjustspending,notinvestment.Onlyinfrastructureprojectsthatyieldnet-present-valueeconomicbenefitsgreaterthanthecostofspendingareinvestments.Somekindsofinfrastructure,suchasrepavingroadsorbuildingtransit,arespending,asinmanycasestheydonotyieldeconomicbenefitsinexcessofcosts.Incontrast,otherinfrastructure,particularlydigitalinfrastructure,hassignificantlypositivebenefit-costratiosbecause,comparedwithsome“cementandsteel”infrastructureprojects,thecostsarelowerandbenefitshigher.

EnhanceU.S.competitiveness:CertainkindsofinfrastructurecanmaketheU.S.economymorecompetitive,eitherbyhelpingexportingfirmsbecomemorecompetitiveorhelpingfirmsdevelopinginfrastructuretosellmoreoverseas.EuropeandmanyAsiannationsaremakingbigbetsonanarrayofinfrastructuretechnologies—includingdigitalinfrastructure,suchas5Gwireless,andInternetofThings(IoT)technologies,includingsmartcities—notonlytoreaptheeconomicandsocialbenefits,butalsotoimprovetheproductivityofcompaniesusinginfrastructureandhelpcompaniesthatproducethesesystemstogainglobalmarketshare.IftheUnitedStateslimitsinvestmentindigitalinfrastructure,itriskscedingthefuturetoforeigncompanies,especiallyChinese.

Whataboutjobs?Shouldn’tgettingAmericansbacktoworkbethemaingoal?Tobesure,thepresidentandmostsupportersofalargeinfrastructurepackagesellitonthebasisofjobcreation;indeed,thepresident’splaniscalledthe“AmericanJobsPlan.”

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Framingitaroundshort-termjobcreationmightelicitpoliticalsupportfortheplan,butitismisleading.

Manystudiesoftheeconomicbenefitsofspendingonphysicalinfrastructurefindlargebenefitsonlybecausetheyassumethatwithoutthespending,theworkersbuildinginfrastructurewouldotherwisebeunemployed.

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Butthatisnotlikelytobethecasenow.Withthenaturalcourseoftheeconomicrecovery,coupledwiththemassivestimuluspackagesof2020and2021,thereisnoreasontothinkthattheU.S.economywillnotreachfullemploymentwithinacoupleyears—certainlybeforethejobimpactsofaninfrastructurepackagewouldmanifest.Second,anydeficit-financedspendingwouldcreatejobsasthemoneygotspent.Thegovernmentcouldcreatejobs,toparaphraseKeynes,evenifitput$100billsinoldwinebottlesandburiedtheminabandonedmines.

So,whileshort-termjobcreationwillcontinuetobeakeypoliticalsellingpointforinfrastructurespending,andpolicymakersarerighttoconsiderhowinvestmentsindigitalinfrastructurewillenableAmericanworkerstosucceedinthejobsofthefuture,policymakersshouldnotmakereducingshort-termunemploymenttheprincipalgoalbecausedoingsowouldmakeiteasiertosupportinfrastructurespendingthatyieldsfewlong-termeconomic-growthbenefits.

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WhatIsDigitalInfrastructure?

“Infrastructure”canrefertoawidearrayofphysicalassets.Onedefinitionis“essentialfacilities,services,andorganizationalstructuresforcitiesandcommunities,”whichincludesnotonlyroadsandrails,butalsofirestations,prisons,dams,schools,etc.

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Butthisdefinition,whileinclusive,istoobroadforwell-consideredpolicydeliberations.“Infrastructure”referstosystemssocietiesusetotransportandprocessgoods,people,orinformation.

“Digital”referstoinformationtechnologysystemsthatelectronicallycollect,process,and

transmitinformation.Therefore,“digitalinfrastructure”iswhereatleastaportion

containsinformationtechnology.Assuch,therearetwokindsofdigitalinfrastructure:hybrid

anddedicated.

Dedicateddigitalinfrastructureisbyitsverynaturedigital.BroadbandcablestotransferdigitalInternetpacketswouldbeanexample.Supercomputingdatacentersorquantumcomputingfacilitiestoprovideaccesstoadvancedcomputingwouldbeanother.E-governmentservicestoprovidefront-officeorback-officeservicesarededicateddigitalinfrastructureaswell.Opendataportalsprovidecommunities,includingbusinessesandindividuals,withaccesstogovernmentdata.

Digitalinfrastructureiswhereatleastaportioncontainsinformationtechnology.

Hybridinfrastructureistraditionalphysicalinfrastructurethatincludesaddeddigitalcomponentsinordertoimproveperformance.Forexample,watermainsthatareembeddedwithsensorstodetectandtransmitinformationonleaksbecomehybridinfrastructure.

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Adigitallyenabledelectricalgridthatusessmartmeters,advancedcontrolsystems,andcommunicationnetworkstogather,distribute,andrespondtoinformationregardingthebehaviorofsuppliers,consumers,andthegriditselfishybrid.

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Intelligenttransportationsystems,suchastrafficlightsthatresponddynamicallytotrafficconditions,arehybridsystems.

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Bridgesthatcontaindigitalsensorstomonitorstressesarealsohybridsystems.

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THECASEFORDIGITALINFRASTRUCTURE

Manyarguethatspendingonphysicalinfrastructure(roads,bridges,watersystems,etc.)driveslong-termeconomicgrowth.TheWorldEconomicForumbelieves“infrastructurecreateseconomicgrowth.”

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PaulKrugmanarguedthat“iftheinvestmentisproductive,itwillexpandtheeconomy’sproductivecapacityinthelongrun.Thisisobviouslytrueforphysicalinfrastructure.”

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InvestmentmanagerSteveRattnerwrote,“Aninfrastructureinitiativewouldnotprovidequickrelief,butitwouldsupportstrongergrowthinthefuture.”

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Indeed,ithasbeenanarticleoffaiththattraditionalphysicalinfrastructure(concreteandsteel)boostslong-termgrowth.Butevidencesuggeststhatthesegrowthbenefitshavedeclinedoverthelast40yearsandarelimitedwhencomparedwithotherareas,especially21stcenturydigitalinfrastructure.Awidelycited1989paperfindsthatincreasingtraditionalinfrastructureinvestmentsinprojectssuchasroads,transmissionlines,andbridgesby1percentincreasesproductivityby0.23percent.

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ButastheU.S.interstatesystemhasbecomebuiltout,theefficiencyoftheseinvestmentshasdeclined.OnestudyfindsthatU.S.highwayinvestmentsgeneratedannualtotaleconomicreturnsof18percentinthe1970s,5percentinthe1980s,

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andjust1percentinthe1990s.

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Onemeta-analysisofthestudiesontransportationinfrastructurefindsthat“anincreaseof10%inpublicinvestmentintransportinfrastructureisassociatedwithanincreaseinoutputofabout0.5%.Thisputsforwardarathermodestproductivityeffectoftransportinfrastructure.”

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Moreover,becauseofthestridentoppositiontocarsandhighwaysbymanyprogressives,itislikelythatthevastmajorityofanyspendingonroadsinaninfrastructurebillwillbeforrepairsofroadsandconstructionoftransit,ratherthanexpansionoflanes—andtheformerwilldolesstospurproductivitygrowthandcompetitiveness.

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Incontrast,investmentsindigitalinfrastructurearelikelytogeneratesignificantlygreateroveralleconomicreturns.

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Theseincludebothdedicateddigitalinfrastructureandhybridinfrastructure.Forexample,researchersestimatedthatiftherestoftheEuropeanUnionbuiltoutitsdigitalinfrastructuretothelevelNorwayachievedin2011,itwouldincreasegrossdomesticproduct(GDP)by$315billion.

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Likewise,astudyofbroadbandadoptionbyEuropeanfirmsfindsthatbroadbandadoptionhassignificantpositiveimpactonlaborproductivity.

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Mandelestimatedthatfullrolloutof5GnetworkswouldboostU.S.productivityby11percent.

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TheElectricPowerResearchInstituteestimatedthatdynamicpricingandothersmart-gridcapabilitieshavethepotentialtodeliveraverageannualeconomicbenefitsof$31billionto$50billionduetoimprovedefficiencyoverthenext20years.

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Moreover,althoughsometraditionalinfrastructurealreadyhassomedigitalcomponents,thesecomponentsareoutdatedandvulnerabletocyberattacks.Vulnerablephysicalinfrastructure,especiallytheindustrialcontrolsystemsrunningdamstowastewatersystemstotheelectricgrid,exposestheUnitedStatestopotentialattacksfromadversariesthatcouldcauseconsiderableeconomicandphysicaldamage.

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Investingindigitalinfrastructurecreatesopportunitiestomodernizethesesystemsandaddressurgentvulnerabilities.

Atthesametime,physicalinfrastructureshouldnotbeignored.Therearepotentialprojectsthatcouldhavebigpayoffs—especiallybyaddingmoreroadcapacityincongestedareas—butanycongressionalinfrastructurepackageshouldmakesuretherearesignificantinvestmentsin21stcenturydigitalinfrastructure.

DIGITALINFRASTRUCTUREINVESTMENT

Thereisanarrayofareasanyinfrastructurebillshouldtargettoensuredigitalinfrastructuredeployment.

Broadbandinfrastructureinruralareasiscriticalandtheinvestmentshouldfocusfirstandforemostonunservedareas.

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Thisshouldincludesupportforbothfixedandmobilebroadband.

Withtheneedforincreasedresiliencyoftheelectricgrid,anypackageshouldincludesignificantinvestmentstomodernize,expand,secure,anddigitizeit.Thisshouldincludewell-fundedpilotprogramstointegrateandtestITtechnologiesonthegridinparticularlocations.

BecausetheU.S.lagsbehindothernationsinthedevelopmentofsmartcities,anypackageshouldincludeanationwide

smartcitiesprogram

tohelpcitiesandtownsusedigitaltechnologiestoimproveoperationsandqualityoflife.

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Inaddition,itshouldfund

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pilotprogramstosupportsmartfarms,smartfactories,smarthealthcare,smartbuildings(especiallyfederalbuildings),andothersystemsupgradedbyconnectedsensorsandanalytics.

Theinitiativeshouldincludefundingforstatestoupgradephysicalinfrastructure,suchaswater,wastesystems,androadsandbridges.Itshouldensurethatfundingcanbespentonhybriddigitaltechnologysolutions,includingusingfundstoupgradecybersecuritymeasures.

Fundsshouldbeallocatedtoensureallcommunities,nomattertheirraceorzipcode,haveaccesstonext-generationsupercomputingandquantumcomputing.

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Anypackageshouldincludesignificantfundingtohelplocal,state,andnationalgovernmentagenciesupgradelegacyandoutdatedITsystems,includingbutnotlimitedtoinvestingincloud-basedITsystemsthatofferbothsecure,mobile-friendlyonlineservicestogovernmentcustomers,andremoteworkcapabilitiesforemployeesandcontractors.

CONCLUSION

Informationtechnologyiscreatingasmartworld—fromsmartenterprisestosmartschoolstosmartcities.Withtheproposedinfrastructurepackagethereisaonce-in-a-generationopportunityfortheUnitedStatestomodernizeitsinfrastructurebyembracing21stcenturydigitalinfrastructure.Doingsowillgenerateanarrayofeconomicandsocialbenefits.

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Acknowledgments

TheauthorwishestothankDanielCastroandStephenEzellforcommentsonearlierdrafts,andKristinCotterforeditorialassistance.

AbouttheAuthor

RobertD.Atkinson

(@RobAtkinsonITIF)

isthefounderandpresidentofITIF.Atkinson’sbooksincludeBigIsBeautiful:DebunkingtheMythofSmallBusiness(MIT,2018),InnovationEconomics:TheRaceforGlobalAdvantage(Yale,2012),Supply-SideFollies:WhyConservativeEconomicsFails,LiberalEconomicsFalters,andInnovationEconomicsIstheAnswer(RowmanLittlefield,2007),andThePastandFutureofAmerica’sEconomy:LongWavesofInnovationThatPowerCyclesofGrowth(EdwardElgar,2005).AtkinsonholdsaPh.D.incityandregionalplanningfromtheUniversityofNorthCarolina,ChapelHill.

AboutITIF

TheInformationTechnologyandInnovationFoundation(ITIF)isanindependent,nonprofit,nonpartisanresearchandeducationalinstitutefocusingontheintersectionoftechnologicalinnovationandpublicpolicy.Recognizedbyitspeersinthethinktankcommunityastheglobalcenterofexcellenceforscienceandtechnologypolicy,ITIF’smissionistoformulateandpromotepolicysolutionsthataccelerateinnovationandboostproductivitytospurgrowth,opportunity,andprogress.

Formoreinformation,visitusat

.

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ENDNOTES

TheWhiteHouse,“FACTSHEET:TheAmericanJobsPlan,”newrelease,March31,2021,/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/03/31/fact-sheet-the-american-jobs-plan/.

DavidAdleretal.,“NextStepsforEnsuringAmerica’sAdvancedTechnologyPreeminence”(ITIF,April2021),/publications/2021/04/12/next-steps-ensuring-americas-advanced-technology-preeminence.

DorcasWong,“HowCanForeignTechnologyInvestorsBenefitfromChina’sNewInfrastructurePlan?”ChinaBriefing,August7,2020,

/news/how-foreign-

technology-investors-benefit-from-chinas-new-infrastructure-plan/;

AliciaParlapiano,“Biden’s$4TrillionEconomicPlan,inOneChart,”NewYorkTimes,April28,2021,

/2021/04/28/upshot/biden-economic-plan-chart.html.

TheWhiteHouse,“FACTSHEET:TheAmericanJobsPlan.”

JoshBivens,“TheShort-andLong-TermImpactofInfrastructureInvestmentsonEmploymentandEconomicActivityintheU.S.Economy,”EconomicPolicyInstitute,July1,2014,

/publication/impact-of-infrastructure-investments/.

JackieCraven,“TheImportanceofInfrastructure:NetworksandSystemsThatKeepThingsMoving,”ThoughtCo.,updatedJuly3,2019,/od/engineeringconstruction/g/infrastructure.htm.

PaoloGemmaetal.,“SmartWaterManagementinCities,”technicalreport(InternationalTelecommunicationsUnion,Geneva,Switzerland,October2014).

U.S.DepartmentofEnergy,“UnderstandingtheBenefitsoftheSmartGrid:SmartGridImplementationStrategy,”whitepaper(NationalEnergyTechnologyLaboratory1413,Washington,D.C.,2010),

/File%20Library/research/energy%20efficiency/smart%20grid/whitepapers/0

6-18-2010_Understanding-Smart-Grid-Benefits.pdf.

Signal-lightoptimizationcanimprovetrafficflowsignificantly,reducingstopsbyasmuchas40percent,cuttinggasconsumptionby10percent,cuttingemissionsby22percent,andreducingtraveltimeby25percent.SamStaleyandAdrianMoore,MobilityFirst:ANewVisionforTransportationinaGloballyCompetitiveTwenty-FirstCentury(NewYork:Rowman&LittlefieldPublishers,Inc.,2009),146.

PeterCaulfield,“SmartSensorsTransformBridges,”JournalofCommerce,lastmodifiedOctober9,2014,/Projects/News/2014/6/Smart-sensors-transform-bridges-JOC060504W/.

ShaiKivity,“WhyinfrastructureistheonlywaytofightaCOVID-19recessionintheUS,”WorldEconomicForum,March27,2020,

/agenda/2020/03/covid-19-recession-

us-infrastructure-solution/.

PaulKrugman,“TheCaseforPermanentStimulus(Wonkish),”NewYorkTimes,March7,2020,

/2020/03/07/opinion/the-case-for-permanent-stimulus-wonkish.html.

StevenRattner,“WeNeedRealEconomicStimulus,”NewYorkTimes,March14,2020,

/2020/03/14/opinion/coronavirus-recession.html.

DavidAlanAschauer,“Ispublicexpenditureproductive?”JournalofMonetaryEconomics,vol.23,issue2(March1989),177–200.

ChadShirleyandCliffordWilson,“Firminventorybehaviorandthereturnsfromhighwayinfrastructureinvestments,”JournalofUrbanEconomics,vol.55,issue2(March2004),398–415.

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PatriciaC.Melo,DanielJ.Graham,andRubenBrage-Ardao,“Theproductivityoftransportinfrastructureinvestment:Ameta-analysisofempiricalevidence,”RegionalScienceandUrbanEconomics,vol.43,issue5(September2013),695–706.

Ibid.

RobertD.Atkinsonetal.,“APolicymaker’sGuidetoDigitalInfrastructure”(ITIF,May2016),