SELF-DECEPTION英文课件-课件

Self-deceptionasself-signalling:amodelandexperimentalevidence

ⅠIntroductionSelf-deception▶Anydefinitionofself-deceptionislikelytobecontroversial.▶Wecanstartwithanactualincident:Itwassherryhour,acasualgatheringofafewdoc-toralstudents,allgoodfriends.Aveteranstudentassertedthatshewouldcompleteherdissertationwithintheyear.‘Areyoukidding,you’renevergoingtofinishit,’remarkedanotherwithasmile.Thecommentwasnotunjust;thestudenthadnothingtoshowforsomehalfdozenyearsintheprogramYet,ithitthemarkabittoowell,andinaninstantitsauthorfoundhimselfwipingthecontentsofafullglassofsherryfromhisfaceandshirt.Howtointerpretateit?Self-deception▶Therearetwointerpretations:

•Onecouldtakethestudent'sclaimatfacevalue:sheisconvincedthatthedissertationwillbecompletedonschedule，allevidencetothecontrary.

•Onasecondinterpretation,thestudentunderstoodverywellthatherscholarlyprospectsweredim.Yet,almostasamatterofpersonalritual,shefeltcompelledtostateacontrarybelief.Belief▶wecanprensentaformaltheoryofself-deceptionthatreliesonasinglepsychologicalmechanism---self-signalling.Thetheorydistinguishesamongthreelevelsofbeliefs:deepbelief

,statedbeliefandexperiencedbelief.▶Self-assessmentscannotaffectactualperformance,butcanaffectthesubjects'expectationsofwinningthecontest,leadingpotentiallytoself-deception.ⅡBackgroundSomeviews▶Aself-deceivedindividual(i)holdstwocontradictrybeliefs,pandnot-p(ii)holdsthemsimultaneously(iii)isunawareofholdingoneofthebeliefs(iv)ismotivatedtoremainunawareofthatbelief

Twoparadoxes•Thestaticparadoxconcernsthestateofmindoftheself-deceivedindividual:howcanheholdtwoincompatiblebeliefs,pandnot-p?•Thedynamicparadoxconcernstheprocessofbecomingself-deceived:howcanapersonintentionallyacquireabelieforremainunawareofabelief?Self-deservingbias▶

mostpeopleratethemselvesassuperioronvirtuallyanydesirablecharacteristic

Self-servingbias

▶Subjectswerefirstaskedtokeeptheirhandsubmergedinacontainerofcoldwateruntiltheycouldnolongertoleratethepain.Thiswasfollowedbyadebriefing,whichexplainedthatacertaininbornheartconditioncouldbediagnosedbytheeffectofexerciseoncoldtolerance.Theconsequencesofthisconditionincludedashorterlifespanandreducedqualityoflife.Somesubjectsweretoldthathavingabadheartwouldincreasecoldtolerance,whiletheothersweretoldtheopposite.Havingabsorbedthisinformation,subjectsrepeatedthesamecoldwatertolerancetest.Themajorityshowedchangesintoleranceonthesecondcoldtrialinthedirectioncorrelatedwith'goodnews'

ⅢSelf-deceptionasself-signallingSomethingweneedtoknow

(i)thatsinceredeniers(intheQuattrone–Tverskyexperiment),duetoadesiretolivealong,healthylife,weremotivatedtobelievethattheyhadahealthyheart(ii)thatthismotivation(inconjunctionwithabeliefthatanupward/downwardshiftintolerancewouldconstituteevidenceforthefavouredproposition)ledthemtotrytoshifttheirtolerance(iii)thatthismotivationalsoledthemtobelievethattheywerenotpurposelyshiftingtheirtolerance

Threewaystomodelself-deception

•adjusttheBayesianmodelofbeliefformation•treattheindividualasaseriesoftemporalselves,withearlierselvesmanipulatingthebeliefsofthelaterselves•addpsychologicalstructurebypartitioningthedecisionmakerintoseveralsimultaneouslyinteractingentitiesSelf-signallingmodelθrep-resentthischaracteristic,withindicatingitsactualvalue.xapossibleoutcome,andu(x,θ)theutilitygeneratedbytheoutcomexintheabsenceofanychoice.Uncertaintyaboutθisdefinedbyaprobabilitydistributionp(θ),whichmaybetakenasthecurrentself-imagewithrespecttothischaracteristic.Thevalueoftheself-imageis,inturn,determinedbyasecondfunction,v(θ),whichindicateshowmuchpleasureorpainapersonwouldfeelfromdiscoveringtrueθ

Self-signallingmodel

▶diagnosticutility

anactionleadstoanupdatingoftheself-image,fromp(θ)top(θ|x).Thechangeinself-imagegeneratesasecondformofutility,calleddiagnosticutility:Example:coldwaterexperimentuwouldcorrespondtocoldsensitivity,u(x,u)tothe(dis)pleasureassociatedwithxsecondsofexposuretocoldwaterincontextoftheexperimentalinstructions,andv(u)torelieforanxietyassociatedwithdiscoveringone’scoldsensitivitylevel.Thetotalutilityofchoosingtoholdone’shandincoldwaterforxsecondswouldthenbethesumofoutcomeanddiagnosticutility:

Self-signallingequation

inaself-deceptionscenario,whatisatstakeisadesireddeepbelief,e.g.thatone’sspouseisnothavinganaffair.Ahusbandmayrecog-nizecertainproblematicpiecesofevidencebutremainunsureabouthisownreadingofthem.Self-signallingisextendedtosuchcasesbytreatingone'sinterpretationofevidenceastherelevantinaccessiblecharacteristic.Formally,istheprobabilityofeventS,andu(x,u)anexpectationovertheseevents:Ⅳ.TWOMODESOFSELF-DECEPTIONTwoparadox:thestaticanddynamicparadoxesofself-deceptionThestaticparadox:howcanheholdtwoincompatiblebeliefs,pandnot-p?Thedynamicparadox:howcanapersonintentionallyacquireabelieforremainunawareofabelief?Thestaticparadox:howcanheholdtwoincompatiblebeliefs,pandnot-p?Threelevelsofbelief:Deepbeliefisassociatedwiththeinaccessiblecharacteristic,whoseactualvalueis.Statedbeliefisassociatedwiththesignallingactionx,whicheitherdirectlyorindirectlyexpressesbelief.Experiencedbeliefisassociatedwiththeself-inferencethatfollowsthestatement,..Thedynamicparadox:howcanapersonintentionallyacquireabelieforremainunawareofabelief?

Howisderivedfromthechoiceandfromp(θ)?Twomodesofself-signalling:Face-valueruleRationalruleFace-valueruleFace-valueruleassumesthattheinferentialmechanismoperateswithoutawarenessofdiagnosticmotivation.Theupdatedinferences,,arethenbasedontheassumptionthatanactionrevealsthecharacteristicthatmaximizesonlytheoutcome-utilitycomponentoftotalutility,ignoringthediagnosticcomponent.impliesu(x,θ)>u(y,θ)Totalutility=outcomeutility+diagnosticutilityRationalrule

mustthenfullyreflectthefactthatactionsaremotivatedbytheanticipatedinferencesthatflowfromthem.impliesV(x,θ)>V(y,θ)Thesignallingvalueofanostensiblyvirtuousactionistherebyreduced,or‘discounted’fordiagnosticmotivation.Totalutility=outcomeutility+diagnosticutilityHowthemodelresolvesthedynamicparadoxofself-deception?Withface-valueinterpretations,self-deceptionifattemptedalwayssucceeds.Rationalinterpretationsleadtoadiscountingofself-deceptiveactionsandstatements.Conclusion:ThefunctionofthepositivestatementisnottoconvincebutmerelytopreserveuncertaintyaboutdeepbeliefsⅤ.Aself-deceptionexperimentIssueofcost&ThelinkbetweenSelf-signallingimpliesthatifthedesireforgoodnewsisstrongenough,itwillbiasinterimassessmentsevenifsuchbiasingreducesoverallchancesofachievingthelong-rungoal.(a)ProcedureThesubjectswere85studentsatPrincetonUniversity.Phase1:Seeaseriesof100KoreancharactersonthecomputerscreenFollowingthepresentationofeachcharacter,theywereaskedtoclassifyitasmore‘male-like’or‘female-like’inappearanceFollowingeachclassification,theyalsoratedtheirconfidenceonafivepointscale.CorrectanswerPhase2:Atthebeginningofeachtrial,beforethesignwasdisplayed,subjectswereaskedtoanticipate(bypressingtheMorFkey).Subjectsencounteredthesamesetofsigns,inadifferentorder.Seeaseriesof100Koreancharactersonthecomputerscreen.Classifyitasmore‘male-like’or‘female-like’inappearanceRatetheirconfidenceonafivepointscale.BonusInphase1

andphase2,eachcorrectresponse(anticipationandclassification)wascreditedwith$0.02,withthetotalonlyrevealedattheendoftheexperiment.

Insummary,asubjectwhosomehowmanagedtorespondwithperfectaccuracywouldreceive$2inphaseI,and$4inphaseII($2forthe100perfectanticipationsand$2fortheperfectclassifications).AdditionalbonusIntheclassificationbonusgroup,thebonuswasreservedforthetopthreesubjectsaccordingtoex-postclassificationaccuracyinphaseII.Intheanticipationbonusgroup,itwasreservedforthetopthreesubjectsaccordingtoanticipationaccuracy.ReviewTwoparadoxAself-deceptionexperimentBonus:anticipation($0.02)andclassification($0.02)

classificationbonusgroup($40)

&anticipationbonusgroup($40)

Phase1:SeeaKoreancharacter+Classifyit+RateconfidencePhase2:Anticipate+SeeaKoreancharacter+Classifyit+Rateconfidence(b)PredictionsThepayoffmatrixfortheclassificationresponse,followingananticipationthatthesignwillbemale.Therewardforcorrectclassificationisc,whiletherewardforcorrectlyhavinganticipatedthatthesignwillbemaleisa.Thetermsaandcincludeboththe$0.02piece-ratepaymentforaccuracyandanysubjectiveimpactontheexpectationofwinningthe$40bonus.Intheclassificationbonuscondition,thebonusincreasesthevalueofc,whileintheanticipationbonuscondition,itincreasesthevalueofa.Giventheseincentives,theself-signallingequationderivestheutilitiesforthetworesponsesAreasonablesimplification:indicateingthatthesubjectwillcategorizethestimulusasmaleifDiscussionaboutself-deceptionasself-signallingFace-valueinterpretations:Ifsubjectclassifiedthestimulusasmale,thismustmeanthatsheindeedbelievesdeepdownthat,whichistosaythat.ThisimpliesthatWithrationalinterpretations,becauseawarenessofdiagnosticmotivationdiscountsthesignal;thesubjectappreciatesthatthereisnowalowerbarθ*<0.5forclassifyingthesignasmale,andconsequentlythat.However,discountingpreservesthebasicdirectionalimplication,namely,thatamaleclassificationprovidespositiveinformationthatthesignwasinfactmale,i.e.Discussionaboutself-deceptionasself-signallingWitheitherface-valueorrationalinterpretations,thediagnosticutilityofamalecategorization,followingamaleanticipation,shouldbepositive.Themodelthuspredictsthatanticipation-confirmingclassificationswillincreasewithanticipationincentives(a).(c)ResultsC1:aninitialclassificationinphase1R1:aconfidenceratingfollowinginitialclassificationinphase1

A:ablindanticipationinphase2C2:asecondclassificationfollowinganticipationR2:aconfidenceratingfollowing

secondclassificationinphase2FourtypesoftrialsConsistentpattern:C2=A=C1Honestpattern:C2≠AandC2=C1Self-deceptivepattern:C2=A≠C1Inconsistentpattern(baseline):C2≠A=C1First,theproportionofself-deceptivepatternsisgreaterthantheproportionofinconsistentpatterns,whichdefinetheerrorbaseline.Second,thisimpactofanticipationsisgreaterintheanticipationbonuscondition,relativetotheclassificationbonuscondition.Theimpactofincentiveconditiononself-deception.Percentofinconsistentpatternsgivesthebaselineforassessingself-deception.Themajorityofsubjectswithstrong-deceptioncomefromtheanticipationbonuscondition.Theovalsareapproximate(greencircles,subjectswith$40classificationbonus;redcircles,subjectswith$40anticipationbonus).AregressionofC2againstC1andA

Intheclassificationbonustreatment,53percentofsubjectsaresignificantlyself-deceptiveatthe0.05level,and27percentatthe0.001level;Intheanticipationbonuscondition,73percentofsubjectsaresignificantlyself-deceptiveatthe0.05level,and45percentatthe0.001level;Comparingtreatments,thedifferenceinproportionsissignificant(p<0.02forp=0.05cutoff,p<0.08forp=0.001cutoff).Thehighself-deception(SD)group:subjectswithself-deceptionatthe0.001levelThemoderateself-deception(SD)group:thosewithself-deceptionatonly0.05levelTheaverageaccuracyatC1(accordingtothepeergroupanswerkey)increasesfrom61.5to63.2and66.2percentforthenon-,moderateandhighSDgroups.AtC2,theaverageaccuraciesare62.3,63.8and62.8percent.ThehighSDsubjectsexhibitgreatermotivationwiththetaskinitially,buttheiradvantagedisappearsinthesecondphase,asresultofself-deception.(d)Whatpsychologicalbenefitsareobtainedforthereductioninobjectiveaccuracy?Accordingtoself-signallingtheorythereisadiagnosticutilitybenefit,whichwecannotmeasuredirectlybutwhichshouldberevealedthroughtheconfidenceratingsthatfolloweachclassificationresponse.Aappropriateindicatorofdiagnosticutilityisthedifferencebetweenthe