贝恩+银行面临新的流动性挑战（演讲PPT）

ByGiulioNaso,Joe

Fielding,UmbertoMonai,andChristyde

GooyerA

P

R

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2

0

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3Centralbankshaveimplementedthelargestandfastestinterestratehikesinrecenthistory,andelevatedrates

shouldpersistinthenear

futureBanksfacekeychallengesindeposits:UpwardpressureonratesfromnewcompetitorsLowerbarrierstoswitchingdrivenbythe

easeofmobile

bankingAcultureofcomplacencyandlackofrigorinmeasuringandmanaging

liquidityInsufficientdataandtoolstoaiddecisionmakinginhigh-rateenvironmentsAsrateshaverisen,

thefinancialsystemmovedinto

disequilibrium,sobanksmustplanforfragility,includingliquidity

challengesWhilemostglobalbankscurrentlyappearwell-positionedfrom

aregulatoryperspective,Bain’sbankinghealthcheckrevealssubstantialvariationin

liquiditymanagement

performanceThebattleforrate-sensitivebalancesisunderway.Depositmixcouldrapidlyshift—upto$4trilliontotermdepositsintheUS.Depositrateswillrise,furtherincreasingthecostof

funding.Banksfacebigrisksiftheymisjudge

thebalancebetweenpreservingprofitabilityandretaining

depositsExecutive

SummaryImproveliquidity

steeringIntegrateadvanceddataandanalytics

intocustomerdeposit

strategyImproveliquidity

accuracyPerformaliquidityhealth

checkRedefinetheirfundingstrategytoreduceliquidityrisk

exposureBankscan

takeactionsCentralbankshavebeenimplementingthelargestand

fastestinterestratehikesinrecent

historySources:S&PCapitalIQ;

BISElevatedratesareexpectedtopersistascentral

banksworktocurb

inflationSources:BISCentralBankPolicyRates(historical);TradingE

(forecasts)ForecastWithrisingrates,theinterconnectedfinancialsystemhas

movedintodisequilibrium,sobanksmustplanfornewareasof

fragilityBroaderfinancial

systemSlowsascreditgetsmoreexpensiveandavailabilitydeclines;suffersfromcollapsesinspecific

sectorsReal

economyExperiencessignificantvaluedestruction,sparkingdebatesaboutpolicyandregulationtopromote

growthCentralbanking

systemCreatesconditionsfordisruptionthroughsustainedexpansionarypolicy

followedbyrapid

tighteningBanksSufferfromliquidityandcapitalissuesstemmingfromasset-liabilitymismatch,resultinginhigherdepositratestoattractconsumersandshrinkingloan

volumesCentralbankingsystemBanksfinancial

systemRealeconomyBroaderSource:Bain&

CompanyConsumerpanic/movementof

depositsLiquiditychallengesIncreaseddefaultsIncreaseddeposit

ratesIncreaseduncertaintyContraction

ofreal

economyReducedloan

volumesMoreexpensivecreditDecreasedconsumerhealthChangingcompliancestandardsSlowingof

newinvestmentsCalls

forpolicychangetospurgrowthStrainfromasset-liabilitymismatchRecentexperiencesuggestsregulators,ratingsagencies,investors,andconsumerswillscrutinizeliquiditymore

intenselyDepositflightfromsmalllendersspurs$98bnweeklyoutflowfromUSbanking

system.EURegulatorstoRethinkLiquidityAfterCreditSuisse

Unravels.WhenMoody'sdowngradedthecredit-rating

outlookoftheU.S.bankingsystemearlierthismonth,ittoocitedthethreattomanylenders'

deposits:‘Bankswithsubstantialunrealizedsecuritieslossesandwithnon-retailanduninsuredU.S.depositorsmay…bemoresensitivetodepositorcompetitionorultimateflight,withadverseeffectsonfunding,liquidity,earningsand

capital.’TheWhiteHousesaidfederalregulators,inconsultationwiththeTreasurydepartment,shouldconsiderrollingbackTrump-erarulesthatloosenedliquidityandcapitalrequirementforbankswithbetween$100bnand$250bnin

assets.MARCH25,202

3MARCH23,202

3MARCH30,202

3MARCH29,202

3Fromaregulatoryperspective,largebanksare

well-positionedintheirliquiditycoverage

ratioNote:DatacoversonlybanksthatreportedLCRfor2022Source:S&PCapital

IQ0123Liquiditycoverageratio,

20224LatinAmerica

andCaribbean2.0Europe(Eurozone)1.7Middle

East1.7Asia-Pacific1.6Africa 1.6 Europe(non-Eurozone)1.6USand

Canada 1.2 Median5th

percentile95th

percentileFromamanagerialperspective,banks’

positionsarefarmore

variedMedian 95th

percentile 5thpercentileNote:LiquidityscoresforeachregionwerecalculatedforallbankscoveredbytheBainBankHealthCheckModelintheregion;theliquidityscoreforeachbankwascalculatedbasedontwometrics—loan-to-depositratioand(totaldebtminusliquidassets)/totalassets.Source:BainBankHealth

CheckAsia-PacificUSand

CanadaMiddle

EastAfricaEurope(non-Eurozone)Europe(Eurozone)Latin

Americaand

CaribbeanBankhealthcheckliquidityscore,

20221.01.00.50.00.50.250.150.130.00-0.01-0.01-0.15Current

depositshareof

totalNote:USbankdepositsincludeinterest-bearingandnoninterest-bearingdepositsforUSoffices,andexcludescreditunions;EUdeposittotalsweresourcedfromECB,andtheamountsofcurrent,term,savings,andotherdepositsweresourcedfromFitch;thetotalfor2022wascalculatedastotaldepositsfor2021timesyear-over-yeargrowthassourcedfrommonthlyECB

dataSource:S&PCapitalIQ:FDIC;ECB;

FitchAssavings

vehiclesprovidedfewadvantages,checking/currentdepositsgrew

andInterest

checkingshareof

totalTheeconomicsofdepositswilldeterioratewithincreasedratecompetitionand

volatilityNote:Futureprojectionsbasedon2004‒06depositcomposition,themostrecentperiodofhighinterestratesSource:FDIC;Bain&

CompanyIncreased

volatility/

competition reduced

stickiness $4.7Time/term

deposits$1.2Interest

checking$3.2

trillionMoney-marketaccounts

+other

savings$8.6$0.7$7.7020406080100%ShareofUSinterest-bearing

deposits$3trillionto$4trillioncouldshifttohigher-costtime/term

productsPrice2022 Potentialinthenear

futureBanksmustavoidaliquiditydoomloopastheytrytobalanceprofitabilitywithretaining

depositsLiquiditydoomloopDepositescapeduetoincreasedcompetitionandproliferationofattractiveoffersfrom

competitorsStressedregulatoryliquidityratiosduetodepositescapeandabsenceofrigorous

measurementRequirementtoaccessmoreexpensiveformsofliquiditytostabilizebothregulatoryandmanagerial

ratiosReductionofprofitability,lowerfundtransferpricingtodeposits

businessPressuretopreservedepositprofitabilityvialess-attractiveoffersandratesto

consumersSource:Bain&

CompanyTraditional

banks

will

face

key

challenges

in

the

battle

for

depositsCompetitionfromneobanksvia

aggressivepricing,whichraisescostsandreduceseffectivematurityofsavingsSources:FDIC,Bain&

CompanyMoretech-savvycustomerswith

moredigitalbankingrelationshipsMobilemoneymovementandbankingmakingit

easierthaneverforcustomerstotransferdepositsamongbanksTheshareofUS

customersusingInternetormobilebankingjumpedfrom52%in2017to66%in2021,accordingtothe

FDICPaucityofdataoncustomerbehaviorin

ahigh-rateenvironmentimpedesdata-drivendecisionmakingonpricingand

offersComplacentcultureandinsufficientrigor

inliquiditymeasurementandmanagementinthenewcontextofhigh-costandscarce

liquidityCompetitionTech-savvycustomersMobilemoney

movementComplacentculturePaucityof

dataBankscantakefivestepstoaddressth