经合组织（OECD）：东南亚、中国和印度经济展望（执行摘要）

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ECONOMICOUTLOOKFORSOUTHEASTASIA,CHINAANDINDIA,2023©OECD2023

Executivesummary

GrowthinEmergingAsiashowsresiliencein2023,butneedstomanagerisks

EmergingAsiahasshownresilienceinthefaceofglobaluncertainty,withgrowthsettorisein2023.Theregion’seconomies–thetenASEANcountries,ChinaandIndia–havestoodupwelltothechallengespresentedbytheCOVID-19pandemic,thewarinUkraineandaglobaleconomicslowdown.Theexportsectorhelpedboosttheregion’seconomicgrowthin2022,thoughtherearesomerecentsignsofslowingdown.Thebankingsectorneedstobecarefullymonitoredinthecurrenthigh-inflationenvironment,eventhoughitisshowingresilience.

Countriesintheregionwillneedtomanagevariousrisks.Theyfacepersistentinflationarypressures,includinghigherfoodandenergyprices.Thecombinationofinflationarypressuresandincreasinginterestratesinadvancedeconomieshaveputpressureoncapitalflowsandlocalcurrenciesintheregion.Theglobaleconomicslowdownisexpectedtoweakenexternaldemand.Foodsecurityforspecificitemscouldalsobeaconcern,withsupply-sidebottleneckscausingfurtherdifficultiesandhigherpricesforgoodsandservices,whichcouldaffectbothdomesticandexternaldemand.

Thepandemichassignificantlyimpactedtheserviceaccountsofregionaleconomies,andthesectormaynotreturnquicklytopre-pandemiclevels.Thetourismandtransportindustries,includingairlinecompanies,maystruggletocopewiththesurgingdemandfortravel,thoughChina’sabandonmentofzero-COVIDpolicyisapositiveelementforgrowthintheregion.

Tourismrecovery,adaptationandchallenges

Priortothepandemic,emergingAsiaenjoyedaboomingtravelandtourismindustry.In2019,travelandtourismcontributed11.7%ofGDPand13.2%ofemploymenttotheSoutheastAsianeconomy,withjobsfor41.8millionpeople.Restrictionsbroughtthesectorstoanearhalt,butwhentheywerelifted,travelandtourismrebounded.However,revivingthetourismsectorrequirestoaddressseveralchallenges,includingdiversifyingandexpandinginboundmarkets,boostingdomestictourismandaddressinglabourmarketchallenges,whilealsoadaptingtothenewpreferencesoftourists.

Diversifyingthesourcesofinboundtouristscouldbedonebyincreasingintra-ASEANtourismandbytargetinglargelyuntappedmarkets,suchasIndianvisitorsandexpatriates.Duringthepandemic,domestictourismhelpedgreatlykeepthesectoralive.Eventhoughcross-bordertravelrestrictionsaregone,thedemandforlocaltraveland“rediscovery”isgrowing.Domestictourismshouldthusremainapriority,withtheaddedbenefitsthatitreducesbothdependencyoninternationalarrivals,andthesector’scarbonfootprint.

Addressingchallengesinthetourismlabourmarketisalsocrucial.Thesectorischaracterisedbyalargeshareofmicro,smallandmedium-sizedenterprises,andfaceschallengessuchashighdegreeofinformalityandvulnerableworkers.Thesectorneedssupporttoacquire,trainandmaintainaskilledworkforce.Solutionsincludetrainingtourismworkersinrelevantskills,suchaslanguages,digitalskillsand

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ECONOMICOUTLOOKFORSOUTHEASTASIA,CHINAANDINDIA,2023©OECD2023

hospitalitymanagement;supportforlocalMSMEs;empoweringlocalcommunitiestoparticipate;andincreasingworkforcediversity.

TheCOVID-19pandemicandrelatedrestrictionshavealsomodifiedtouristpreferences.Peoplewholivedthroughlockdownsandwantmorepersonalspaceareincreasinglyattractedtonature-basedtourismdestinations,whilemanyothersnowplacemorefocusonhealthandwellness,increasingthedemandfortheseservices.

Strengtheningsustainabletourismandacceleratingdigitalisation

Lessonslearnedfromthepandemicareanopportunitytoupdatethetourismandhospitalitysectorsbyadoptingmoresustainablepracticesandintegratingthemmorefullywithinthegreenandblueeconomies.

Visitormanagementstrategiescanhelpaddressovertourism,whichdamagessitesandlocalenvironments,anddisruptsthelivesofresidents.Offeringalternativenicheforms,suchasecotourism,canalsohelppromotemoresustainablepracticesanddiversifythesector.Community-basedtourismprogrammes,whichallowforupskillingresidentsandrevivelocalcultures,havealsoemergedasanalternativetomasstourism.Planningshouldfocusonstrengtheninglinkages,wherebusinessesworktogetherformutualbenefit,whilepluggingleakages,whichoccurwhenrevenueissentoutsidethecommunity.

Theincreasinguseofdigitaltechnologyintravelandtourism,spurredbypandemicrestrictionsandhealthconcerns,alsorequirestheattentionofpolicymakers.Thetourismsectorhasembraceddigitaltools,suchasonlinebookingplatformsande-commerce,aswellsocialmediaandvirtual-oraugmented-realityexperiences.ChallengesforEmergingAsiaincludetheneedtoimproveinfrastructureforinformationandcommunicationstechnology,cybersecurity,digitalskillsgapsandalackofharmonisedtourismstatistics.

Country-specifictourismchallengesinEmergingAsia

TheOutlookincludesaseriesofcountrynoteshighlightingthepolicychallengesfacingEmergingAsiancountries.Theseincludepreservingtouristsitesandtheenvironment,developinginfrastructureandhumancapital,anddistribu