世界银行-中东北非地区社会契约及其数字化转型的实证分析（英）

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PolicyResearchWorkingPaper10455

AnEmpiricalAnalysisoftheSocialContractintheMiddleEastandNorthAfrica

RegionandtheRoleofDigitalization

inItsTransformation

FaridGasmi

DorgylesC.M.Kouakou

PaulNoumbaUm

PedroRojasMilla

MiddleEastandNorthAfricaRegion

InfrastructureDepartment

May2023

ProducedbytheResearchSupportTeam

PolicyResearchWorkingPaper10455

Abstract

comeatthecostofimpairedpoliticalparticipation.ThisfeatureofthesocialcontractintheMiddleEastandNorthAfricamaybeconsideredoneoftherootcausesofthesocialturmoilsomecountrieshavebeenstrugglingwithinrecentdecades.Digitaltransformationisapotentiallypowerfulchannelthroughwhichtherelationshipbetweengovern-mentandcitizenscanimprove,andthepaperfindsthatithasathree-yearlaggedpositiveeffectonthequalityofthesocialcontractintheMiddleEastandNorthAfricaandtheeffectisinverselyU-shaped.ThissuggeststhatstructuralandinstitutionalimprovementsareneededincountriesintheMiddleEastandNorthAfricaforthequalityoftheirsocialcontracttoreachlevelscomparabletothoseofcountriesintheOrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment.

Thispaperpresentsanempiricalapplicationandanalysis

ofthesocialcontractincountriesintheMiddleEastand

NorthAfrica.Thepapersuggestsasimpleoperationalmodel

thatsynthesizesasocialcontract’sthreemaincharacteristics:

participation,protection,andprovision,betweenagov-

ernmentanditscitizens.Thisempirical“3-P”framework

allowsinvestigatingtherolethatgovernmentprovision

andprotectionmayhaveoncitizenparticipation,which

isparticularlypertinentgiventhepoliticalandeconomic

developmentofcountriesintheMiddleEastandNorth

Africa.Thepapercomparestheevaluationofthehealth

ofthesocialcontractincountriesintheMiddleEastand

NorthAfricaregiontothatofcountriesintheOrganisa-

tionforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment.The

empiricalevidenceshowsthatthesocialbenefitsprovided

tocitizensthroughimproveddeliveryofbasicserviceshave

ThispaperisaproductoftheInfrastructureDepartment,MiddleEastandNorthAfricaRegion.ItispartofalargereffortbytheWorldBanktoprovideopenaccesstoitsresearchandmakeacontributiontodevelopmentpolicydiscussionsaroundtheworld.PolicyResearchWorkingPapersarealsopostedontheWebat/prwp.Theauthorsmaybecontactedatpnoumbaum@,farid.gasmi@tse-fr.eu.

ThePolicyResearchWorkingPaperSeriesdisseminatesthefindingsofworkinprogresstoencouragetheexchangeofideasaboutdevelopmentissues.Anobjectiveoftheseriesistogetthefindingsoutquickly,evenifthepresentationsarelessthanfullypolished.Thepaperscarrythenamesoftheauthorsandshouldbecitedaccordingly.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthispaperareentirelythoseoftheauthors.TheydonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheInternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment/WorldBankanditsaffiliatedorganizations,orthoseoftheExecutiveDirectorsoftheWorldBankorthegovernmentstheyrepresent.

AnEmpiricalAnalysisoftheSocialContractintheMiddleEastandNorth

Africa

RegionandtheRoleofDigitalizationinItsTransformation

+

FaridGASMI

a

,DorgylesC.M.KOUAKOU

b

,PaulNOUMBAUM

c

,andPedroROJASMILLAa

Keywords:Development,socialcontract,digitaltransformation,MENA,OECD.

JELclassificationcodes:L96,L97,O10.

TheauthorswouldliketothankJoséAurazoandSamathanMetevierforinsightfulsuggestions,andRadiaBachaforhelpwithlocatingsomeofthedatausedinthispaper.FaridGasmiacknowledgesfundingfromtheFrenchNationalResearchAgency(ANR)undertheInvestmentsfortheFuture(Investissementsd'Avenir)program,grantANR-17-EURE-0010.Theviewsexpressedareonlyoursanddonotnecessarilyreflectthoseoftheinstitutionsweareaffiliatedwith.

SchoolofEconomics,UniversitéToulouseCapitole,farid.gasmi@tse-fr.euandpedro.rojas-milla@ut-

dkouakou@.

bGrenobleAppliedEconomicsLaboratory,UniversitéGrenobleAlpesandTheWorldBank,

cTheWorldBank,pnoumbaum@.

2

1.Introduction

Inrecentyears,manycountriesintheMiddleEastandNorthAfrica(MENA)haveexperiencedpopularuprisingsthaterodedthetrustthatcitizensputintheirgovernments.

1

Forsomeobservers,theseeventstaketheirdeeprootsinthewaytherelationshipsbetweenstateandsocietyhavebeenshapedafterthesecountries'independenceinthe1950sand1960s,i.e.,thenatureoftheirsocialcontract,SChereafter.Essentially,governmentsthathavecomeintopowerinthesecountriesprioritizedprovidingsocialbenefits,oftenatthecostoflimitingcitizens'participationincrucialpoliticalandeconomicdecisions.Agrowingpopulationandanincreasinglychallengingeconomiccontexthaveweakenedthisgovernancesystemandgeneratedseverediscontentwiththegovernmentsandtheirinstitutions.

CountriesintheMENAregionfacemultiplechallengesduetoanincreasinglyunsustainableSC.Thisunsustainabilityresultsfromtherentierismnatureofsomecountries,thepoliticalinstabilityofothers,andtheintensifiedvulnerabilitiesofthisregiontohealthpandemicsand/orclimatechange.Verticalcontrolsandprivilegednetworkingbetweenbusinessesandthepoliticaleliteshavelimitedeconomicopportunitiesforcitizensandincreasedsocio-economicinequalities.Asaresult,corruption,lackoftransparency,elitecapture,andpoliticalcoercionarepredominantconcernsinthisregion,leadingtoalowleveloftrustingovernmentsandprovidingsufficientmotivationforcitizenstoseekpoliticalchange. GovernmentsinMENAhaveobjectivereasonstoimprovetrustwithcitizensandstrengthentheirSC.Theycouldleveragedigitaltransformationtomodernizepublicinstitutions,controlcorruption,enhancetransparency,andincreasecitizenparticipationintheircountries'decision-makingprocesses.

2

Withunchanginginstitutions,thedeploymentofdigitaltechnologyhasfailedtodelivertheexpectedbenefits,thuspreventingdigitalizationfromfulfillingitstransformativepotentialintheregion.Inordertoachievedigitaltransformationoutcomes,itisnecessarytoundertakedeeperreformoftheICTsectorwhilespearheadingtheprovisionofgovernmentservicesonline.ThissuggeststhatcountriesintheMENAregionneed

1Inthispaper,weuseTheWorldBank'soperationaldefinitionoftheMENAregion.Seetheappendixforthelistofcountries.

2TheapplicationofInformationandCommunicationTechnology(ICT)ingovernments'activities,referredtoase-governmentordigitaltransformationofgovernmentsintheliterature,canbeexpectedtohaveapositiveeffectoncorruptioncontrolinMENA(Dhaoui,2021).Thiseffecthasbeenparticularlyobservedincountrieswitheffectivelegalsystems(ParkandKim,2019).Recentworkthatbringsevidenceofa(mostly)positiveimpactofe-governmentonthisimportantaspectoftheSCincludesAdam(2022),Agostinoetal.(2021),Khanetal.(2021),Pérez-Moroteetal.(2021),andSetoretal.(2021).Relatedly,Uyaretal.(2021)findthatdigitalizationofgovernmentserviceshasastrongereffectonmitigatingtaxevasionincountrieswhereICTadoptionishigherandSpierings(2019)providesaninterestingdiscussionofthespecificdriversofsocialtrustinMENA.

3

toimplementaseriesofpoliticalandadministrativereformstoimproveservicedeliveryandstrengthenaccountability.

3

OurempiricalanalysisisbasedonatheoreticalframeworkproposedbyLoeweetal.(2021),whichrepresentsasetofformalandinformalrelationshipsbetweenstatesandcitizensinagivencountry.Thisframeworkallowsustoanalyzeacountry'sSCinamultidimensionalspacewhereeachdimensionhighlightsanimportantfeatureoftheSC.Wespecifyasimpleandempiricallyimplementableversionofthisconceptualframework,whichwerefertoasa"3-P"model.Inthismodel,acountry'sSCisrepresentedbya3-dimensionalvector.Thefirstcomponentinvolvesthesupplyofabasketofbasicpublicutilityservices,includingeducation,health,waterandsanitation,electricity,roadconnectivity,andtelecoms(voicetelephoneandinternet)tocitizens(Provision).Thesecondcomponentistheextenttowhichcitizensareprotectedagainstviolenceandviolationoftheruleoflaw(Protection),andthethirdcomponentreferstothedegreetowhichcitizensparticipateinthepoliticalandeconomicdecision-makingprocess(Participation).InviewofthesocialinstabilityoftheMENAregioninrecentdecades,wefocusonthelatterdimension(Participation)asakeyfactoroftherelative"quality"ofanSCandthusdevotemuchofourempiricalinvestigationtoidentifyingthenatureofthecausalrelationshipbetweenthisdimensionandthetwoothers.

4

Atthispoint,weshouldindicatethatweusetelecoms(voicetelephoneandinternet)asaproxyforthedeliveryofbasicpublicutilityservicestocitizensandthecautiousreadermightrightlywonderwhy.Wemakethisassumptionforthefollowingthreereasons.

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First,werealizedthattheinformationcollectionprocesswouldtakeusmuchmoretimethanexpectedbecausethedatasourceswereconsiderablydispersed.Second,givenourgoalofexploringtheroleofdigitalization,wefounditnecessarytogatherdataonsomeaspectsofdigitalizationthatwerealsopertinenttotheotherservicesofthebasketbutweremerelyjustunavailable,andtheconstructionofwhichwouldnecessitateagreatdealoftime.

6

Third,givenourgoaloftesting

3NeedlesstosaythatMENAcountriesneedtoinvestineducationtodevelopdigitalskillsandimplementmorestructuralandhigherqualityhumancapitalprojects.

4ByviewingParticipationasakeyindicatorofthequalityofanSC,bynomeanswethinkthatProvisionandProtectionhavelessimportance.Our(testable)presumptionhereisthatdemocracy,liberty,andinstitutionalquality,which,aswewillsee,arethedefiningconceptsofParticipationinthispaper,areattherootsoftheeventsthathavebeenshapingsocietyintheMENAregionduringtherecentdecades.

5Itisworthstressingherethattheliteratureontheimportanceoftelecominfrastructureforgrowthofdevelopedaswellasdevelopingcountries,academicandinstitutional,isimpressivelyrich.See,amongothers,theearlyworkonfixedandmobileinfrastructurebyRöllerandWaverman(2001),SridharandSridhar(2007),andWavermanetal.

(2005)andthemorerecentworkonICTbyAdeleyeandEboagu(2019),Nairetal.(2020),Niebel(2018),Royetal.

(2014),andSarangiandPradhan(2020).Thissaidthough,insomefutureresearchweintendtousetheenlargedbasketofbasicpublicservicestorepresenttheProvisiondimensionofthe3-PSCframework.

6Thiswasthecasefornotonlyelectricityandwaterinwhichtheintroductionofsmartmetersisagoodindicatoroftheextentofdigitaltransformationoftheservices,butalsoforhealth,education,androadconnectivity.

4

the3-PtheoreticalframeworkasanempiricallyoperationalanalyticaltooltostudytheSCinMENAcountriesandexploretheroleofdigitalizationinitstransformation,wedeemeditworthwhiletopursuedespitetheadmittedlysimplifyingassumptionmade.

7

Morespecifically,weconstructadatabasethatcoversthelasttwodecadesforcountriesoftheMENAregionanduseittoestimatethe3-Pmodel.ThemainvariablesofinterestinthisdatabasearethreesyntheticindicesthatwecalculatefromrawdataforthepurposeofreasonablyproxyingthethreemaindimensionsoftheSC.WealsoconstructasimilardatabaseforcountriesoftheOrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment(OECD)thatweuseasabenchmark,inparticular,toassesstherelativequalityoftheSCinMENAcountries.

8

OurfindingssuggestthatinMENAcountries,contrarytoOECDmembercountries,thesocialbenefitsprovidedtocitizensintheformofimprovedtelecomserviceshavecomeatthecostofweakeningtheirparticipationinsociety'sdecision-makingprocess.ThisfeatureoftheMENAregion'sSCcouldclearlybeperceivedasarootcauseofthesocialturmoilthatthecountriesoftheregionhaveexperiencedinrecentdecades.

TheweaknessoftheSCintheMENAregionhighlightedbyouranalysisseemstobeastructuralphenomenon;yetdoesthatmeanthereisnothingtodoaboutit?

9

Asalludedto,there

7Asregardsbasicservicesprovisiondigitizationeffects,theoverallassumptionisthatitwillstrengthenservicedeliveryqualitythroughgreaterefficiency(bettermatchingofcustomerneedstosupplyaswellaslowercost),greatertransparency,andultimatelybetteraccountabilitybetweenserviceproviders,customers,andgovernment.Digitaltransformationofhealthcaredeliverygoesbeyondtelemedicineapplicationsandutilizationasitenhancescustomizationofhealthservicestomatchspecificneedsofeachpatient.Forthistobeputinmotion,eachpatientneedstobeidentifiedandregisteredinanationalsocialregistryasitisthecasewiththeCarteVitaleinFranceorMedicareBeneficiaryIdentifierintheUS.Indevelopingcountries,theWorldBankanddevelopmentpartnershavebeenworkingwithclientgovernmentstoestablishauniversalaccessregimetohealthcarewhichalsorequirestheestablishmentofsocialregistryidentifyingcitizenseligibletothescheme.Inshort,thedigitizationofhealthcareprovisionsystemsultimatelyimprovesitsabilitytodeliverservicesincludingforthepoor.Regardingeducation,thedigitaltransformationiswelladvancedthroughthedeploymentofdigitalplatformsallowingpedagogicalcontenttobeaccessibleremotelyinsynchronousorasynchronousmodes.Theissuetobedealtwithhereistoensureaffordabilityandaccessibilitytosuchplatforms.Deployingbroadbandinternetacrossthecountry,ensuringthatcitizens,teachersandschoolingfacilitiesarewellequipped,andenhancingdigitalliteracy,e.g.,throughaccesstoPersonalDigitalAssistant(PDA)areamongthecriticalpolicymeasurestobeconsidered.Roadconnectivityensuresaccesstomarketsandisthereforeindirectlyimpactedbydigitization.Providingfarmerswithbettermarketinformationonpricesandotheraspectsofdemandthroughaccesstodigitalplatformshasanimpactontheimplementationofmobilitysolutionsofferedbytheprivatesectorandhenceonthewayroadinfrastructureisutilizedandevenmaintainedsincecollectedtrafficinformationcanalsobringalonginformationonqualityoftheinfrastructure.Allinall,informationdigitizationisaffectingthewaybasicsocialservicesaredeliveredandhowtheirdeliverycanbeimproved.Digitizationalsobringstogethergreaterinterplayandconvergenceofbasicsocialservices.

8ForalistoftheOECDcountries,seetheappendix.

9ConcernsaboutthequalityoftheSCinMENAhavebeenraisedbothininstitutionalandacademiccircles.AtopdevelopmentjournalhasrecentlypublishedaspecialissueontheframingofanewSCintheregion.SeeLoeweetal.(2021)foranenlighteningintroductiontothisspecialissue.Moreover,theWorldBankhasrecentlyorganizedaseriesofwebinarsinvolvinghigh-leveldecisionmakers,policymakers,privatesectorbusinessleaders,andinfluencers,seekingtoexaminewaystoimprovetheSCinMENA.Seealso,AmaneyandRobbins(2022)andRobbins(2022).UNDESA(2021)discussestheimpactoftheCOVID-19pandemicontheworldofworkandtheresultingchangesinpeople'strustinpublicinstitutions,amilestoneoftheSC.

5

isdefinitelyroomforgovernmentstoleadthewaytoimprovethingsinasustainablemanner.OneavenueofactionsconsistsinrelyingondigitaltransformationthatcouldbeakeydriverofanewSCinMENA.Indeed,theavailabilityofmoredata,ordatafrommoresources,suchasinthecaseofopengovernmentinitiativesordigitalmediacanbeexpectedtoincreasetheaccountabilityofgovernmentstowardcitizens.Moreover,digitalizationcanstrengthenpluralisticdialogueasgivingavoicetocitizenswillhelptofosteranenvironmentwheremultipleperspectivesandneedsaretakenintoconsideration.Thisshouldtranslateintogreaterparticipationindecision-makingandservicedelivery,andgreaterconfidenceinmoretransparentandaccountablegovernments.

AftercharacterizingtheSCinMENAcountriesthroughregressionanalysis,weintroduceandinvestigatetheimpactofanindexthatservesasaproxyforthedegreeofdigitalizationinthesecountriesinordertoassesstheroleofdigitaltransformationinsociety.Suchanextendedanalysisallowsustoreachaconclusion,fairlydiscussedintheacademicaswellasinstitutionalliteratureone-government,i.e.,theapplicationofrecenttechnologicaladvancesingovernments'activities,thatdigitaltransformationhasathree-yearlaggedpositiveeffectonthequalityoftheSCinMENA.However,thiseffectontherelationshipthatbindsrulersandcitizensinthisregionhasaninverseU-shape,callingforstructuralinstitutionalimprovementsinMENAcountriesbeforethequalityoftheirSCreacheslevelscomparabletothoseofOECDcountries.

Therestofthepaperisorganizedasfollows.Thenextsectiongivesanoverviewoftheliteraturethatismostrelatedtoourworkinthesensethat,inonewayoranother,itemphasizestheneedforanewSCthatemergedatvariouspointsintimeintheMENAregionthroughoutthesecondhalfofthe20thcentury.AremarkablefeaturethatiscommontomostofthepapersoverviewedisthefactthattheyemphasizethepoliticaleconomydimensionofanSCandtheweaknessoftheMENAregioninthatrespect.OneofourgoalsinthispaperistocontributetothecharacterizationofthisstructuralflawthathascontinuouslymarkedtheSCintheregion.Section3discussestherawdatathatweuseinthispaper,thewayweconstructandrescaleourvariables,inparticular,theindicesweusetomeasurethethreeP-dimensionsoftheSC,andsomepreliminaryevidenceconveyedbyanexaminationofthebehavioroftheseindicesthroughtime.

Section4presentstheresultsofoureconometricanalysisoftheMENASC.Thisanalysisiscarriedoutinthreestages.First,tosetthegroundforaregressionanalysisofthe3-PrepresentationmodelofthisSC,weseektohighlightthecausalrelationshipsthatrunfromtheProvisionandProtectionindicestotheParticipationindex.Second,theresultsofthe

6

Grangercausalitytestsbeingconclusive,weperformaProbitanalysisthatemphasizesParticipationasadependentvariableagainstProvision,Protection,andsomecontrolsasindependentvariables.Finally,wechecktherobustnessoftheresultsobtainedbymeansofthepropensityscorematchingapproach.Section5isdevotedtotheeconometricinvestigationoftheimpactofthedigitaltransformationofMENAcountriesontheirSC.Section6concludesbysummarizingthemainresultsofourworkandpointingtosomepotentialextensionsofthisresearch.Theappendixcontainssomecomplementarymaterialusefulforthediscussionsinthemaintext.

2.Alongawaited"new"socialcontractforMENA

Inthissection,wereviewaliteratureonMENAcountriesthatdemonstratesthattheneedforanewSCinthesecountrieshasbeenarecurringissuesinceWorldWarII(WWII)andthat,whileitsProvisionandProtectiondimensionshaveexperiencedupsanddowns,itsParticipationdimensionhasexperiencedasteadydecline.Thispropositionissubstantiatedbythefollowingfiveargumentsthatarediscussedinturn.First,aftertheirindependenceinthe1950sand1960s,thesecountriesadoptedanSCcharacterizedbyastronginterventionismthatprogressivelydriftedtowardanequallystrongauthoritarianism.Second,MENAcountriesexperiencedeconomicdifficultiesthatchallengedtheredistributivenatureoftheirSCandledtoamajorcrisisthatcalledfordeepreforms.Third,itwasnotclearthatgovernmentsreallywantedtoreformastheyrealizedthatreformswerenotcompatiblewiththeirincentives,whichledtomixedresults.Fourth,thepartiesinvolvedintheSCreformsfeltsostronglytheneedtoimproveitsqualitythattheirpositionsradicalizedtothepointofhavingadverseconsequencesontheSCintheend.Last,theweaklinkoftheMENASC,namelyitsParticipationdimension,hasrecentlycomebackinthespotlight.

Fromaninterventionist-redistributivetoanauthoritariansocialcontract

Inthe20thcentury,theSCofMENA,morespecificallyitseconomicdevelopmentmodel,hasattractedtheinterestofacademicsandpolicyanalystsafterWWII,particularlyattheturnoftheindependenceinthe1950s.Theearlyliteraturehashighlightedthestrong"interventionist-redistributive"orientationofthisSC(RichardsandWaterbury,1996;Richards,2004)andanalyzedthemainhistoricalandstructuralfactorsthatshapedit(Yousef,2004).Thefactorsthatdrewthemostattentionincludethedevelopmentofastrongperceptionofthestateastheprimaryproviderofeconomicwell-beinginMENAcountries(Thompson,2000),theeventsthatledtothefreeingofthesecountriesfromthecolonialpowers(Picard,1993),andthefact

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thatthisregionishometocountrieswitheitheroil-orlabor-exportingeconomies(Beblawi,

1987;Chaudhry,1997).

OneaspectoftheSCinMENAthathasbeenemphasizedisitsdualnatureasapoliticalinstrumentthatconfersentitlementstocitizenswhilealsoprovidingmechanismsfortheircontrol(Vandewalle,2004).Infact,ithasbeenarguedthatthisSChascementedasituationreferredtoasan"authoritarianbargain"inwhichcitizenstradepoliticalparticipationagainsteconomicsecurityandsocialservices(Youcef,2004).

10

Indeed,fromthe1950sintothe1970s,theMENAcountries'developmentmodeldeliveredeconomicdividendsthatallowedthemtoreachunprecedentedeconomicprosperity(Elbadawi,2005).Massivepublicinvestmentsininfrastructure,health,education,andprotectedstate-ownedenterprises(Yousef,2004)allowedtheMENAregiontoperformwelleconomically.

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However,whenitcametocitizenparticipationindecision-makingprocesses,thesituationwasfarfromideal.

InparalleltothiseconomicflourishinginMENA,a"governmentalgap"wasdevelopinggivingthecountriesoftheregionadisappointedlygrimfaceintermsof,notonlypoliticalparticipation,butalsorespectforcivillibertiesandgovernmenttransparency(Bromley1994;Anderson1995).

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Thisgapwasconsideredtobeduetothecombinedeffectofoil,socialtensions,andgeopoliticalconsiderations(WorldBank,2003).Highoilrevenueshaveallowedsomegovernmentstoeasetheburdenofrelyingonsociallycostlytaxationtoimplementredistributionpoliciesandsupportlargeinternalsecuritysystemsthatwouldprotectthemandpreventpopularmobilization(Bellin,2004).Unprecedentlyhighlevelsofsecurityandmilitaryspendinghavealsoaccompaniedtheseapparatusesthatbecameclearlycoercive.Moreover,MENAauthoritariangovernmentshavealwaysfoundexternalsupport,inparticular,withinthesuperpowerrivalryandtheoilsupplysecurityconcern(Khalidi,2004).Infact,ithasbeenarguedthattheseregionalfactorshaveplayedamuchmoresignificantrolethananyothers,includingreligionandculture,inhinderingdemocracyinMENA(Ross,2001).

10Desaietal.(2009)provideaneconometricconfirmationofthisauthoritarianbargainhypothesisusingpaneldataon80non-democraticstatesduringthe1975-1999periodincludingcountriesoftheMENAregion.InthecontextofourstudythatusesdataonlyonMENAcountries,animplicationofthishypothesisistheexistenceofanegativerelationshipbetweenParticipationandProvisiononwhichouranalysisprovidesrobustevidence.

11Boostedbythelargeoilrevenueintakesofthe1960sand1970s,theMENAregion'seconomiesreachedoneofthehighestgrowthratesintheworldatthe5%to6%levels.Thisextraordinarygrowthhashowevernotbeenwithoutraisingconcerns,inparticular,becauseitwasoftentheresultofahighlypositiverateofcapitalaccumulationandanegativerateoftotalfactorproductivity(Page,1998).AgoodexampleisAlgeriawheretheimplementationofthe"industrializingindustries"developmentmodel(DestannedeBernis,1966)ledtothequadruplingoftherateofphysicalcapitalaccumulationwhereasthetotalfactorproductivitycollapsedfrom1.9%inthe1960sto-0.7%inthe1970s(Yousef,2004).

12MENAcountriesrankedverylowintwoimportantindicesthatmeasurethisgap,namely,publicaccountabilityandinstitutionalqualitywithvaluesofrespectively-0.78and-0.32whilethoseoftheOECDcountrieswere1.89and1.38(Yousef,2004).ThisgapturnedouttobeevenwiderforMENAoil-exporters(WorldBank,2003).

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Economiccrisis-calledreforms

ThisgapbetweencitizensandstatesinMENAkeptwideningtothepointofchallengingthecapacityofgovernmentstosustaintheirredistributivecommitments.Duringthe1980s,someincreasinglythreateningtensionsappearedandturnedintoamajorcrisisbytheendofthedecade.

13

TheresultingslowdowningrowthintheregionhaspromptedsomecountriessuchasMorocco,Tunisia,andJordantolaunchreformssincethemid-1980s.Inthe1990s,withthesupportofinternationalfinancialinstitutionsandwesterndemocraciesmostMENAcountriesimplementeddeepstructuralreformsaimedatlayingthefoundationsforamar