化工-行业周报：5月石油和化工行业景气指数回落俄罗斯赖氨酸工厂遭袭MDI、VB2、赖氨酸价格持续走高

证券研究报告持)5证券研究报告持)5月石油和化工行业景气指数回落，俄罗斯赖氨酸工厂遭袭，MDI、VB2、赖氨酸价格持续走高重点公司投资要点评级万华化学5.99买入华鲁恒升2.963.00买入扬农化工579664买入中国巨石58增持新和成2增持桐昆股份0.052增持联化科技0.750.77增持华峰化学0.570.63增持金禾实业3.027买入恒力石化0.33增持卫星化学0910增持荣盛石化0.330.58增持东方盛虹0.086增持天赐材料2.973.51增持福斯特2.01增持新宙邦236308增持相关报告《【兴证化工】基化新材料周报——华为上调2023年手机出货量目标，中国钾肥大合同签(20230612-20230618)》本周化工与新材料行业回顾5月石油和化工行业景气指数回落，降至94.95。2023年5月，石油和化工行业景气指数回落，降至94.95，较2023年4月下降3.9个百分点，略低于正常区间，暂处于偏冷区间；较2022年5月下降1.01个百分点，降幅快速收窄。分行业来看，在成本端降价的影响下，石油和化工行业利润下滑，景气指数回落。受出行和货运需求旺季支撑，燃料加工业景气指数环比下降2.35个百分点，在分行业中降幅最小。石油和天然气开采业景气指数环比下降3.11个百分点，景气指数回落至偏热区间。在阶段性产能过剩的压力下，化学原料和化学制品制造业与橡胶、塑料和其他聚合物制品制造业景气指数环比降幅均超过4个百分点，景气指数跌至过冷预警区间。俄罗斯主要赖氨酸工厂遭袭，其8万吨产能停产。据俄罗斯新闻媒体报道，俄罗斯ZAOPrioskolie负责赖氨酸生产的生产工厂PremixPlantN°1近期遭到袭击并起火，部分厂房受损。该区域已经停电，绝大部分人员已经撤离。PremixPlantN°1工厂几乎所有员工都被疏散，已经停止运营，近期内较难恢复生产，同时现有库存的货物也无法发出。PremixPlantN°1的赖氨酸生产能力在2019年达到了8万吨/年，是俄罗斯市场的主要赖氨酸供货商，俄罗斯市场对中国赖氨酸出口需求或将大幅增加，将影响中国赖氨酸生产企业出口需求，尤其是已经获得俄罗斯市场准入的中国赖氨酸生产企业。俄罗斯市场需按相关法规要求经注册后方可销售，目前获得俄罗斯赖氨酸注册的中国企业有伊品生物、万里润达。当前临近国内氨基酸企业检修期，行业供给减少或提振市场价格。建议关注：星湖科技、梅花生物。特斯拉Cybertruck交付进一步推进。盖世汽车6月10日讯，特斯拉向其供应商发布Cybertruck生产计划，目标年产量由25万辆提升至37.5万辆，将于2023年10月初开始正式生产。我们看好生产目标提升后的供应链弹性，受益标的：斯迪克。中国化工品价格指数(CCPI)：本周CCPI较上周下跌0.6%，较上月同%。本周涨幅较大的产品：TTF现货，+67%；英国NBP现货，+64%；日本LNG现货，+35%；维生素B2(80%,国产)，+31%，碳酸亚乙烯酯(VC)，+8%。本周跌幅较大的产品：多晶硅(致密料)，-20%；煤焦油(华东)，-14%；磷矿石(30%,贵州)，-13%；缬氨酸(99%,国产)，-13%；人造石墨负极材料，张zhangzhiyang@S0190520010003吉金jijin@S0190522030003张勋zhangxun19@S0190521100002刘梦岚liumenglan@S0190522070006请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明行业周报请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-2-中短期投资策略23Q1主动管理型公募基金重仓持股中基础化工持仓市值占比5.88% (季度环比+0.57pcts，季度同比-0.78pcts)，石油石化持仓市值占比1.02%(季度环比-0.18pcts，季度同比-0.01pcts)。站在当前时点，化企龙头在产品盈利修复预期较强的背景下，估值已跌至较低水平，以龙头公司周期底部业绩测算来看，该估值仍具有强安全边际，化企核心资产配置性价比持续凸显，建议继续买入化工龙头公司。重点推荐：中国化工产业格局重塑关键力量，万华化学、华鲁恒升、扬农化工等。基础化工：化工品价格触底反弹，龙头白马充分受益。我们认为在国内政策刺激、需求向好背景下，化工品盈利至暗时刻已过，基础化工品盈利存修复之动力，但考虑到历经两年景气周期，中观维度在建工程正欲投产，化工品价格修复弹性有待验证，但龙头白马产业链一体化、规模优势明显，成本领先，有望于价格修复过程中率先受益。重点推荐万华化学、华鲁恒升、龙佰集团等。新材料：消费电子复苏预期，苹果MR产品进入推广阶段，重点关注国瓷材料、斯迪克；锂电回收产业趋势，重点关注锂离子电池萃取相关公司；光伏装机增加叠加topcon需求放量，重点关注POE价格上行之可本周基础化工品价格概况行业开工负荷下跌，聚合MDI价格上涨。根据百川资讯，供应方面，上海科思创由于原料供应问题，装置降负运行，本周MDI行业开工负荷下跌，厂商控量发货，市场整体供应缩减，厂商挺价心态明确。需求方面，新能源专用车行业受出口和政策影响，对MDI需求尚可。本周下游厂商整体按需生产，刚需继续推进。本周聚合MDI(华东)价格周环比上涨3.1%至16800元/吨，华东MDI综合价差(至纯苯)增厚2.8%至13575元/吨。现货缩减，TDI价格上涨。根据百川资讯和隆众资讯，供应方面，上海联恒6.11开始检修。TDI行业整体开工负荷下跌，市场现货紧缺，供方挺价意愿浓厚。本周TDI行业开工率为69%，环比下降8pcts。需求方面，下游刚需继续跟进，消耗库存为主。本周TDI(华东)价格周环比上涨4.3%至17000元/吨，TDI-甲苯-硝酸-烧碱价差增厚7.5%至10720元/吨。刚需补货，丁辛醇价格上涨。根据百川资讯，供应方面，山东建兰21万吨辛醇装置、大庆石化丁辛醇装置停车检修，宁夏百川丁醇装置低负荷运行。本周丁辛醇行业开工负荷小幅下跌，整体库存低位，市场现货供应紧张，厂商挺价心态较强。本周辛醇行业开工率为89.76%，环比下跌1.36pcts；正丁醇行业开工率为84.76%，环比下跌1.28pcts。需求方面，下游部分厂商由于前期原料储备不足，阶段性刚需补货，采购积请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-3-极性较高。本周正丁醇(华东)和异辛醇(华东)价格周环比分别上涨4.4%和6.4%至7050元/吨和9200元/吨，异辛醇-丙烯价差增厚14.8%至4296元/吨。国内检修临近，海外俄罗斯工厂遭袭击停产，苏氨酸、赖氨酸等氨基酸价格上涨。根据百川资讯和饲料行业信息网，供应方面，万里润达赖氨酸装置六月份存检修计划，伊品生物黑龙江及内蒙基地赖氨酸、苏氨酸装置预计6-7月停产检修，6月初俄罗斯年产8万吨赖氨酸工厂装置因遭遇导弹袭击并起火，目前已停止生产。此外，苏氨酸、赖氨酸企业临近6月氨基酸传统检修季，其主流生产厂家预计将陆续开启检修。本周苏氨酸、赖氨酸厂商装置开工负荷下跌，市场现货紧张，部分厂商停报价格，在产厂家提价。本周苏氨酸行业开工率为54%，环比下跌1pcts；赖氨酸行业开工率为57%，环比下跌0.5pcts。需求方面，下游整体需求稳定，企业按照库存消耗情况进行采购。俄罗斯市场由于意外袭击事件对中国赖氨酸需求大幅增加，采购积极性较高。报价方面，6月13日万里润达苏氨酸报价上调至14元/千克，98%赖氨酸外贸报价上调200元/吨，内贸价格98%含量上调至9.7元/千克，70%赖氨酸含量价格上调至5.2元/千克。本周苏氨酸(99%,国产)和赖氨酸(98.5%,国产)价格周环比分别上涨3.4%和3.5%至12.3元/千克和8.95元/千克。维生素B2价格持续上涨。根据百川资讯和博亚和讯，维生素B2由于前期价格已跌至低位，厂商出货意愿下降，目前部分厂家已停报停签，发货延迟，市场惜售情绪浓厚，在产厂家提价。需求方面，下游维持刚需。6月13日海嘉诺和丰银饲料级80%维生素B2签单价格分别为153.00元/千克和155元/千克。本周维生素B2(80%,国产)价格为127.5元/千克，周环比上涨30.8%。CCMP价格上涨。根据百川资讯，CCMP上游原料端价格高位维稳，成本支撑力度充足。需求方面，下游需求稳定，刚需采购为主，厂家上调出厂价格。本周CCMP价格为65000元/吨，周环比上涨4.8%。碳酸亚乙烯酯价格上涨。根据百川资讯，碳酸亚乙烯酯由于前期价格已跌至低位，厂商利润较低，整体出货意愿下降，市场供应缩紧，厂商挺价意愿浓厚。本周碳酸亚乙烯酯(VC)价格周环比上涨8.3%至65000元/吨。重点公司：万华化学、华鲁恒升、扬农化工、中国巨石、桐昆股份、华峰化学、恒力石化、卫星化学、金禾实业、新和成、国瓷材料、东材科技、昊华科技、荣盛石化、东方盛虹、福斯特、天赐材料、新宙邦等。风险提示：化工产品需求不达预期的风险，国际油价大幅下跌的风险，环保落实不力的风险。请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-4- 表目录表1、重点跟踪化工产品价格与价差.....................................................................-8- 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-5- 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-6- a 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-7- -8-行业周报表1、重点跟踪化工产品价格与价差产品单单位更新日期本周上周周涨幅上月同期月涨幅上季度同期季度涨幅年初年内涨幅指数中国化工品价格指数CCPI-2023/06/1642674291-0.6%440348004782%人民币对美元汇率(中间价)-2023/06/160.2%7.03561.3%6.83744.3%6.89123.4%人民币对欧元汇率(中间价)-2023/06/167.80427.66921.8%7.58292.9%7.40695.4%7.25357.6%美元指数-2023/06/16102.28103.56-0.9%-0.8%103.91S&P500-2023/06/164409.594298.862.6%4191.985.2%3970.9911.0%3895.0813.2%黄金现货价美元/盎司2023/06/161959.751960.300.0%1961.601993.801852.205.8%CRB商品价格指数-2023/06/16552.93545.871.3%543.501.7%544.791.5%554.33-0.3%货代运价指数CFFI:中国-欧洲-2023/06/16281828180.0%3029-7.0%3422%3243货代运价指数CFFI:中国-北美-2023/06/16308230820.0%3257-5.4%37194101-24.8%原油WTI期货(主连合约)美元/桶2023/06/1670.6271.29-0.9%71.8669.960.9%73.67Brent期货(主连合约)美元/桶2023/06/1675.6775.96-0.4%75.86-0.3%75.91-0.3%78.69-3.8%WTI期货(次月合约)美元/桶2023/06/1670.8171.44-0.9%71.941.0%73.92-4.2%Brent期货(次月合约)美元/桶2023/06/1675.6675.84-0.2%75.8-0.2%75.50.2%78.82-4.0%WTI期货(第12月合约)美元/桶2023/06/1668.580.6%-0.8%67.631.4%72.61-5.6%Brent期货(第12月合约)美元/桶2023/06/1674.3873.860.7%74.62-0.3%74.040.5%77.95-4.6%WTI现货美元/桶2023/06/1670.6271.29-0.9%71.8669.960.9%73.67Brent现货美元/桶2023/06/1675.4675.260.3%75.81-0.5%74.61.2%77.45-2.6%Dubai现货美元/桶2023/06/1673.3175.9-3.4%75.06-2.3%74.973.99-0.9%Cinta现货美元/桶2023/06/1669.8272.54-3.7%71.38-2.2%71.96-3.0%73.69-5.3%美国原油钻井数口2023/06/16552556-0.7%575-4.0%593-6.9%618%美国商业原油库存千桶2023/06/164671244592051.7%467624481180-2.9%42064611.0%Brent-WTI期货主连合约价差美元/桶2023/06/165.054.67426.2%5.955.020.6%WTI主连合约-次月合约美元/桶2023/06/16--0.08---0.25-Brent主连合约-次月合约美元/桶2023/06/160.01-91.7%0.06-83.3%0.41-97.6%-WTI主连合约-第12月合约美元/桶2023/06/162.04-34.4%2.74-25.5%2.33%1.0692.5%Brent主连合约-第12月合约美元/桶2023/06/161.29-38.4%1.244.4%1.87-30.9%0.7474.6%三地原油简单10天平移均价美元/桶2023/06/1672.7473.40-0.9%73.36-0.8%75.47-3.6%78.20-7.0%炼油中国92#汽油(镇海炼化)元/吨2023/06/1690689127-0.6%90210.5%9365-3.2%9466-4.2%中国0#柴油(镇海炼化)元元/吨2023/06/1675357585-0.7%74900.6%7805-3.5%7895-4.6%美国87#汽油美分/加仑2023/06/16249250-0.3%2461.3%255-2.4%2432.3%美国柴油(纽约)美美分/加仑2023/06/162492404.0%2403.8%269-7.4%316-21.0%欧洲ARA柴油(CIF)美元/吨2023/06/167286954.6%6984.3%784888亚洲柴油(新加坡)美元/桶2023/06/168892-3.8%9097-9.3%13-21.6%92#汽油新加坡FOB美元/桶2023/06/168790-3.6%88-0.8%94-7.4%860.7%含硫0.05%柴油新加坡FOB美元/桶2023/06/169092-2.3%9198-8.4%07%航空煤油新加坡FOB美元/桶2023/06/168891-2.5%9096-7.9%09%新加坡石脑油FOB美美元/桶2023/06/1655.98-6.9%61.20-8.5%69.02%65.53%日本石脑油CFR美元/吨2023/06/16531568-6.5%588-9.6%647%630%请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-9-行业周报美分/加仑2023/06/165760-5.5%64%76-24.9%73-21.9%液化气(华东)元/吨2023/06/1645504700-3.2%5000-9.0%5830-22.0%5630%丙烷(华东冷冻丙烷(华东冷冻CFR)美元/吨2023/06/16488499-2.2%530-7.9%575612-20.3%丁烷(华东冷冻CFR)美元/吨2023/06/16443489-9.4%525%575-23.0%627-29.3%正丁烷(山东正丁烷(山东)元/吨2023/06/16437840864750-7.8%5090%4894%基础油(150SN,东北)元/吨2023/06/16900090000.0%90000.0%9200-2.2%9200-2.2%1120#溶剂油(华东)元/吨2023/06/1669007150-3.5%7600-9.2%7800%7250-4.8%混调高硫180CST(华东)元/吨2023/06/164750480048505180-8.3%5630%558#半炼石蜡(华南)元/吨2023/06/16870087000.0%85501.8%81506.7%85002.4%重交沥青(华南)元/吨2023/06/16373037300.0%37050.7%3965-5.9%3955-5.7%改改性沥青(华南)元/吨2023/06/16480048000.0%47750.5%5125-6.3%5075-5.4%国内主营汽油出厂价-原油价差美元/吨2023/06/16220.71227.44-3.0%12289.04-23.6%273.81%国内主营柴油出厂价-原油价差美元/吨2023/06/16133.02138.47-3.9%135.50194.28-31.5%178.45-25.5%国内主营成品油价-原油价差美元/吨2023/06/16110.50113.86-3.0%145.86-24.2%137.92%国际汽油市场价-原油价差美元/吨2023/06/16275.84276.55-0.3%263.934.5%294.52-6.3%234.3717.7%国际柴油市场价-原油价差美元/吨2023/06/16178.89148.0520.8%150.0319.2%236.32-24.3%-49.6%国际成品油市场价-WTI原油价差美元/吨2023/06/16157.64147.317.0%142.0711.0%182.84%199.62-21.0%国际成品油市场价-Brent原油价差美元/吨2023/06/16137.94129.096.9%126.47159.64%180.04-23.4%新加坡FOB汽油价-Brent原油价差美元/吨2023/06/16133.55157.78%137.94-3.2%187.54-28.8%105.8126.2%新加坡FOB柴油价-Brent原油价差美元/吨2023/06/1673.3786.01%78.21-6.2%-43.6%175.48-58.2%新新加坡FOB航空煤油价-Brent原油价差美元/吨2023/06/16104.77119.92%117.56%160.58-34.8%235.03-55.4%美湾WTI321价差美元/桶2023/06/1629.7028.045.9%26.7611.0%34.68%30.58-2.9%美湾Brent321价差美元/桶2023/06/1624.8224.0822.7630.03%25.94-4.3%亚洲Minas321价差美元/桶2023/06/1614.42-4.5%15.38-6.3%19.69-26.8%15.83-8.9%中东Dubai321价差美元/桶2023/06/1612.6413.4513.41-5.8%18.73-32.5%18.64-32.2%中国沥青开工率%2023/06/1641.98-4.8%41.501.2%48.07%38.768.3%美国炼厂开工率%2023/06/1693.7095.80-2.2%92.001.8%88.605.8%79.6017.7%美国HenryHub期货(主连合约)美元/MMBtu2023/06/162.552.358.5%2.5918.5%3.72-31.4%英国NBP现货(远期合约)便士/Therm2023/06/16102.56753.0%6362.7%102.250.2%50-31.7%美国HenryHub现货美元/MMBtu2023/06/162.052.1-2.4%2.3%2.083.77-45.6%美国N.Y.Hub现货美元/MMBtu2023/06/161.361.401-2.9%4-2.9%1.84%2.586-47.4%美元/MMBtu2023/06/1613.3663.7%7.9168.9%12.526.7%17.39-23.2%德国GPL现货美元/MMBtu2023/06/162322.651.5%22.641.6%22.754.0%气TTF现货欧元/兆瓦时2023/06/164426.466.7%2951.7%45-2.2%66.25-33.6%TTF期货(次月合约)欧元/兆瓦时2023/06/1639.326.8546.4%30.6%43-8.6%68.6-42.7%美元/MMBtu2023/06/169.0035.3%9.7125.5%12.58-3.2%21.08-42.2%中国LNG现货(华北)元/吨2023/06/164000370039002.6%44006700-40.3%美国天然气库存十亿立方英尺2023/06/16263425503.3%224017.6%190038.6%2891-8.9%煤无无烟煤(Q6500,晋城)元/元/吨2023/06/2023/06/1612201220122012200.0%15001500%15701570-22.3%-22.3%20602060-40.8%-40.8%烟煤(Q5500,山西优混)元/吨2023/06/16795815-2.5%985%1100-27.7%1192-33.3%请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-10-行业周报动力煤(Q5500,环渤海指数)元/元/吨2023/06/167167160.0%729732-2.2%734-2.5%焦精煤(太原)元/吨2023/0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