美酒链-白酒行业：2022年度数字化时代价值烈酒投资先锋报告

CONTENT33趋势sinessintheAgeofDigitalization11回顾ReviewofGlobalSpiritsMarket44链平台产品表现jiuBlockchainPlatform22展动态Dynamics552022年全球烈酒市场回顾A2022年全球烈酒市场回顾AReviewof2022GlobalSpiritsMarket1144性凸显Globalspiritsmarketexpectsencouraginglong-termprospectsandremarkableresilience•烈酒(spirits)就是高浓度的烈性酒,也叫蒸馏酒，由于蒸馏过程中提取的馏分不同，有时分头”等。蒸馏制酒法是酒类制法中不可缺少的一种，也大领域。•Spirit,astrongwineordistilledliquorbydefinition,isclassifiedintoTouqu,ErquorErguotoubycutsandfractionsinthecourseofdistillationinChina.Distillationisoneofcrucialwine-makingtechniquesandamajorarenaoftechnicaldevelopmentforalcoholicbeverages.•烈酒通常被习惯分为八大类：琴酒(Gin)、威士忌(Whisky)、白兰地(Brandy)、伏特加(Vodka)、朗姆酒(Rum)和龙舌兰酒(Tequila)、中国白酒(Baijiu)、日本清酒(Sake)。•Generally,spiritsaredividedintothefollowingclasses:Gin,whiskey,brandy,vodka,rum,tequila,Baijiuandsake.•近年以来，受疫情影响，2020年全球烈酒市场规模从4843亿美金下滑至4491亿美金，为近5年最低规模。2020年后，随着海外防疫政策逐步放宽，酒类消费市场(超市、饭店、酒吧等)逐渐恢复运营，烈酒市场逐渐凸显其韧性和刚需，其销售逐步恢复常态。预计酒市场市场规模高达6031亿美元，5年CAGR为6%。•Hitbytheepidemicinrecentyears,globalspiritsmarketsizeplummetedfromUSD484.3billiontoUSD449.1billionin2020,thelowestinrecentfiveyears.Since2020,spiritsmarkethasbeenshowingitsresilienceandrigiddemands,gettingbackontrackonsalesthankstothelooseningoverseasepidemicpreventionpoliciesandtherevivingalcoholconsumptionscenes(supermarket,restaurant,barandmore).Itisprojectedthatby2025,theglobalspiritsmarketsizewillreachuptoUSD03.1billionwith6%CAGRin5years.002012-2025E全球烈酒市场规模(单位：十亿美元2012-2025EGlobalSpiritsMarketSize(Unit:USDbillion)20122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025资料来源：StatistaSource:Statista场份额主导Chinahascapturedadominantshareinabuoyantglobalspiritsmarket•中国是全球烈酒市场的领导者。2022年，中国烈酒市场收入超过1500亿美元，超过美国和日本的总和。国际奢侈烈酒在很大程度上仍依赖于三个市场——中国、美国和日本，加占2022年全球市场超过90%。•Chinaremainsaworldleaderinspiritsmarket.In2022,ChinagainedmorethanUSD150billionsalesrevenuefromspiritsmarket,exceedingthetotalincomeoftheUSAandJapan.Thebusinessofinternationalluxuryspiritsdependsheavilyonthreemarkets—China,theUSAandJapan,whichjointlyoccupyingmorethan90%ofglobalmarketsharein2022.•中国消费者耳熟能详的白兰地、威士忌、朗姆酒等自然是热门品类，这之中，更是不乏人头马、轩尼诗、马爹利等大型烈酒集团，这些名品国际烈酒在整个中国进口烈酒市场超过了60%。•SuchspiritproductswellknowntoChineseconsumersasbrandy,whiskeyandrumprovemuchcovetedunderpinningthesuccessofahostofinternationalbigbrandslikeRemyMartin,HennessyandMartell,accountingformorethan60%intheshareofChina’sspiritimportmarket.•2022年，全球烈酒行业收入达到约4844亿美元。未来3年，全球烈酒市场仍能保持稳步增长，2025年其销售收入预计将达到6031亿美元，2022-2025年复合年增长率约为7.58%。•In2022,therevenueofglobalspiritindustrywillhitaboutUSD484.4billion.Theupcoming3yearswillexpectasteadygrowthinglobalspiritsmarket:ThesalesincomeisprojectedtohitUSDbillionin5andtheCAGRfrom2022to2025,about7.58%.•全球烈酒消费市场销量虽然低于疫情水平，但仍保持稳步上升趋势。2022年全球烈酒销量预计将达到376.8亿升。•Thespiritssalesofglobalconsumermarket,thoughyettoretrieveitspreviousglorybeforetheepidemic,hasbeenexperiencingasteadygrowth.Itisestimatedthatin2022,theglobalspiritsaleswillhit35.33billionlitersandreachorsurpassthescaleof2019in2023.Thesalesofspiritaroundtheworldin2025isexpectedtoclimbto376.8billionliters.•预计2025年之前，国际烈酒行业29%的支出与8%的批量消费将来自餐饮业。55•Itisalsoprojectedthatby2025,F&Bsegmentwillcontributeto29%expenditureand8%bulkconsumptionforglobalspiritindustry.•预计到2022年，国际烈酒的人均消费量将达到4.64升。•In2022,theconsumptionperheadofglobalspiritsproductsisestimatedtohit4.64liters.2022年全球烈酒消费市场主要国家销售收入(单位：百万美元)Salesrevenueinkeycountriesoftheglobalspiritsconsumptionmarketin2022(Unit:USD1million)020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000160,000180,000中国China日本Japan英国Britain 法国France德国Germany巴西Brazil俄罗斯Russia墨西哥Mexico156,700StatistaSourceStatista2021-2025年全球烈酒市场销量趋势(单位：百万升)Trendsintheglobalspiritsmarketbyvolume,2021-2025(unit:1millionliter)000020122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025StatistaSourceStatistaLiquorboastsatremendouspotentialinglobalspiritsconsumptionmarket021年全球烈酒市场中，白酒销售量高达4.23亿标准箱(每标准箱9升)，位居全球第二，仅次于开盖即喝酒精饮料(RTD)的销量。销售额位居全球第三，次于干邑和威士忌。•Intheglobalspiritsmarketof2021,liquorboastedastaggeringsalesvolumeof423millionunits,secondonlytotheperformanceofready-to-drinkalcoholicbeverages,AswellastheNo.3salesamountaroundtheworld,onlyafterCognacandWhiskey.•白酒短期仍以内需为主，从长期来看，经济增长为白酒带来在国际市场中巨大成长空间。•Intheshortterm,internalmarketdemandsremainstheengineforliquorbusiness.Inthelongterm,thegrowingeconomywillcreateenormousspaceofdevelopmentininternationalmarket.2021国际烈酒销售量(按种类，单位：百万个9升箱子)2021Internationalsalesvolumeofspiritproducts(bytype,unit:1million9-litrestorageboxes)4006004006008001,0001,2000开盖即喝酒精饮料766.3Ready-to-drinkalcoholicbeverages423.8Baijiu威士忌389.1Whiskey158.2158.2朗姆酒150.6Rum龙舌兰40.8Tequila1,041.01,041.0资料来源：StatistaSource:Statista•虽然目前白酒品鉴和文化尚未得到国际市场广泛认可，但近年来，各大酒企通过适当性调整融入国际烈酒消费文化场景。例如，山西汾酒、泸州老窖等企业仍通过技术手段推出自己的鸡尾酒，并积极参与国际烈酒调配活动，初步证明白酒某种程度上也可融入鸡。Althoughtheappreciationskillsandcultureofliquorhavenotprevailedincurrentinternationalmarket,majorChinesedistilleriesaretryingtomaketheirwaytotheinternationalculturalcontextofspiritconsumption.Forexample,suchliquorenterprisesasShanxiFenLiquorandLuzhouOldCellarhavelaunchedtheirowncocktailproductsbynewtechniquesandplayedactiverolesininternationalcocktaileventstoprovethatliquorcouldalsoestablishapresenceincocktailculture.白酒销售额位于全球第三，仅次于干邑和威士忌ThesalesamountofliquorrankedNo.3aroundtheworld,onlyaftercognacandwhiskey.资料来源：ISWR,DiageoestimatesSource:ISWR,Diageoestimates66China’sBaijiumarketvsChina’sinternationalspiritsmarket内烈酒市场中，白酒占据着主导消费地位。改革开放后，中国国际烈酒市场需求被迅速世纪90年代，国际烈酒在中国一直是“高档”和“时尚”的代名词，价格远高于多产白酒。随着洋酒热潮的兴起，国际烈酒在经济发达地区的歌舞厅、宴会等场景的渗透不断提高，广东作为改革开放前沿地带，成为中国最大的国际烈酒市场。现如今，随着市不断开放，人们的饮酒观念和饮酒习惯发生了一定程度的变化。随着家庭总收入的提升质环境的改善，越来越多的人，开始接触洋酒。LiquordominatesthespiritsconsumptionmarketinChina.Afterthereformandopening-up,China’smarketdemandsforglobalspiritsproductsweresoaring.Sincethe1990s,internationalspirithasbeensynonymoustohigh-endandfashion,muchmoreexpensivethanmostdomesticliquor.Guangdong,thefrontierofreformandopeningup,rosetothelargestinternationalspiritsmarketacrossChinathankstothesurgingfadofforeignalcoholicdrinksandtheincreasingmarketpenetrationofinternationalspiritsintosuchscenesasballroomsandbanquets.Nowadays,theopeningmarkethaswitnessedchangesinpeople’smentalityandhabitsofdrinking.Theimprovinggrosshouseholdincomeandphysicalenvironmenthavebeenencouragingmorepeopletotryatasteofforeignwinesandspirits.iversofinternationalspiritsbusinessinChina1)国际烈酒文化的形成及发展。国内烈酒经销商巧妙地利用特殊时代背景下国人对国际产鲜认可度，结合酒类文化消费场景打造国际烈酒“高档”形象。同时，影视作品潜移影响、拥有海外生活经历的中国居民人数增多和“夜经济”的发展等因素，也很大程国际烈酒文化在中国的发展。1)TheformationanddevelopmentofinternationalcultureofspiritsDomesticspiritssellers,leveragingChinesepeople’snewlyfoundrecognitionofinternationalproducts,createdahigh-endimageforinternationalspiritsintheculturalcontextofalcoholconsumption.Meanwhile,thecultureofforeignspiritsisalsofosteredinChinathroughthesubtleinfluencesofmoviesandTVshows,thegrowingpopulationwithoverseasexperienceandtheboomingnight-timeeconomy.2)贸易环境的市场化和规范化程度不断提高。2001年中国加入WTO后，对外贸易实现与多边经贸体制的接轨，市场开放程度得到极大提高，为中国烈酒市场的快速发展奠定基础。电子商务的兴起，极大程度上提高了中国烈酒市场的销售效率和烈酒产品价格的，推动中国国际烈酒市场供应链发展。2)Theincreasinglymarket-basedandwell-regulatedtradeenvironmentAsolidfoundationforaboomingChinesespiritsmarketwasbuiltthankstoChinasentryintoWTOin2001thatmarkeditsintegrationwithamultilateraleconomicandtradesystemandgreatlyopenedmarket.After2006,therisinge-commercehelpedtoenhancethesalesefficiencyandpricetransparencyofChina’sspiritsmarket,thusspurringthedevelopmentofsupplychainsforinternationalspiritsmarketinChina.3)国际烈酒厂商的大力营销。国际烈酒厂商的大量营销在对洋酒消费者消费习惯的养成起。以威士忌为例，2003年，为了迎合中国消费者饮用习惯和对口感的追求，威士忌厂商加强在中国市场的营销力度，并推出“加冰、加饮料”等创新喝法，威士忌的销量增长。3)Internationalspiritbrands’all-inmarketingefforts.ThemassmarketingeffortsplayedacrucialroleinformingChineseconsumers’habitofconsumingforeignalcoholicdrinks.Forexample,in2003,WhiskeysuppliersmanagedtoboostthesalesoftheirproductsbypromotingwholenewapproachestoenjoyWhiskey—“addingiceorsoda”tocatertothedrinkinghabitsandflavorpreferencesofChineseconsumers.推动了洋酒售规模的快速增长。中国洋酒经销网络发展经历了从点到面，从单一到多样，从简单输出出服务及洋酒文化的发展过程。4)DevelopmentandevolutionofsalesscenesandchannelsTheprofoundchangesinChina’sretailindustryinthelast2decadesdrovetherapidgrowthofforeignalcoholicbeverages,wherethedistributionnetworkhasbeenexpandedanddiversified,fromindividualsitestoextensivenetworks,fromsimplyofferingproductstoprovideservicesanddeliverrelevantculturallegacies.77China’sBaijiumarketvsChina’sinternationalspiritsmarketeofmajorspiritsinChina1)在中国的烈酒市场中，白酒消费占比96%、洋酒消费占比4%左右。在国际烈酒品类中，的为白兰地和威士忌。2)白兰地消费市场在中国国际烈酒市场中始终保持主导地位，2022年预计市场规模达到962022年复合增速约为8.8%。3)威士忌近几年开始在国内烈酒市场兴起，增速不亚于白兰地。2022年市场规模有望达到22年复合增速约为9%。4)未来，美酒链美酒标准研究院认为，国际烈酒在中国市场将会顺应国际烈酒市场发展趋酒市场深度研究)1)China’sspiritsmarketfoundBaijiuaccountingfor96%shareandforeignalcoholicdrinks,4%.Brandyandwhiskeystoodoutthetoptwobest-sellingspiritproductsamongforeignitems.2)Brandy,remainingoneofthemostsought-afteralcoholicdrinksinChina’sinternationalspiritsmarket,isprojectedtohitUSD9.6billionin2022marketsize,withacompoundgrowthrateoffrom2018to2022.3)Whiskey,anup-and-comingnewfavoriteacrossChinainrecentyears,isthrivingatafastpaceequalwithBrandy.In2022,itsmarketsizeisprojectedtohitUSD2billion,withacompoundgrowthrateof9%from2018to2022.4)AccordingtoBaijiuBlockchainInstituteofLiquorStandards,theshareofinternationalspiritswillgrowfurtherinlinewiththeupwardtrendininternationalspiritsmarket.China’sforeignalcoholicdrinkmarketsizeisestimatedtoreachUSD9.44billionin2023.(Source:AnIn-DepthStudyofChinasSpiritsMarket2020)注：人民币兑美元汇率以截止2022年12月31日中间价计算Note:TheexchangerateofRMBagainstU.S.dollariscalculatedatthecentralparityrateasofDecember31,20222013-2022年中国烈酒市场主要品类市场规模(按销售收入计算，单位：百万美元)eofMajorSpiritsinChinaulatedbysalesincomeunitUSDmillion计)jected623About3,730About6,830About9,600skey调和麦芽苏格兰威士忌cotchesdka235资料来源：StatistaSource:Statista88变量，长期消费升级趋势不变Epidemicremainsacorevariableweighingonconsumptionandthelong-termupgradeofconsumptionwillendure这两年GDP增速之所以放缓，最直接的原因就是疫情的影响，在疫情反复出现的情况下，很多地方都反反复复的封控，人流物流都受到了很大的影响，供应链也受到了很大的影响。年度我国经济运行总体稳定，分季度看，一季度国内生产总值(GDP)同比增长4.8%，之后，2023年经济将会迎来恢复性增长阶段，逐渐向潜在增速回归。Therecenttwoyears,underthedirectlyimpactofthepandemic,foundaslow-downofGDPgrowth,burdenedbytherecurringepidemicpreventionblockadeanddisruptedtraffic,logisticsservicesandsupplychainsacrossChina.2022sawastableeconomicperformanceinChina:Q1recordedayearlyGDPgrowthQ2,0.4%;Q3,3.9%andQ4,2.9%.Theoptimizingstrategiesofepidemicprevention&controlandtheeconomicandsocialactivitiesbackontrackwillheraldanexcitingeconomicreboundin2023,aprogressivecome-backtothepotentialgrowthspeed.同比下降0.2%，分阶段看呈M形增长。12月份，烟酒行业零售总额同比下降7.3%。消费市场受疫情短期扰动比较明显。但从过去3年全年表现来看，2019-2022年，食品烟酒消费零售增速在主要行业增长中位居第一。未来消费市场将白酒的稀缺性以及人们逢年过节、送礼的理念，白酒板块长周期的消费升级趋势未变，高端酒需求仍较为稳固，茅五泸的定性高。In2022,thetotalretailsalesofconsumergoodsfellby0.2%,presentinganMCurvebystages.ThisDecemberfound7.3%dropontotalretailsalesofalcoholandtobacco.Consumermarketexperiencedobviousshort-termdisturbancescausedbytheepidemic.However,from2019to2022,thegrowthrateofretailsalesofF&Bandalcohol&tobaccoproductsexceededanyothermajorsegments.Whentheconsumermarketreturnstonormal,alcoholandtobaccoconsumptionwillgraduallyrecoveritspreviousgrowthrate.Therarityofhigh-endBaijiuandthegift-exchangingcustomsinfestiveoccasionsunderpinthedemandsforhigh-endproductsandalongtermtrendofupgradingconsumption,asolidgroundtoprojectthegrowthofMoutai,WuliangyeandLuzhouOldCellar.2年，全国网上零售额137,853亿元，同比增长4%。其中，实物商品网上零售额增长6.2%，占社会消费品零售总额的比重为27.1%；在实物商品网上零售额中，吃类、穿类、用类商品In2022,theonlineretailsalesacrossChinahitRMB13,785.3billion,ayearlyincreaseof4%.Theonlineretailsalesofphysicalcommoditiesgrewby6.2%,accountingfor27.1%oftotalretailsalesofconsumergoods,includingthe16.1%increaseoffoodstuff,3.5%ofgarmentsand5.7%ofdailysupplies.规模也在逐渐扩大。线上将成为推动行业发展的重要力量。企业在强化线下渠道的同时，也不能忽视“线上”这个新战场。Althoughbricksandmortarstoresremainamajorchannelforconsumerstopurchasealcohol,theclienteleonlinehasbeenexpandingthankstothetrafficdivertedfromofflinesites.Onlinebusinesswillrisetoanessentialenginetodrivetheindustryforwardwiththetrendofconvergencebetweentheupgradingconsumptiononlineandofflinegrowingconspicuous.Therefore,thenewbattlefieldofonlinegatewaysisnottobedismissedwhileenterprisesarestrivingtoconsolidateofflinechannels.99烟酒类Tobaccoandalcohol 会零售总额同比居住HousingAlcoholandtobacco烟酒类Tobaccoandalcohol 会零售总额同比居住HousingAlcoholandtobacco3%2%生活用品及服务Daily交通通信%Communication&transportation教育文化娱乐-1%变量，长期消费升级趋势不变Epidemicremainsacorevariableweighingonconsumptionandthelong-termupgradeofconsumptionwillendure比-1.8%/-7.3%InDecemberthetotalretailsalesofconsumergoods/tobaccoandalcoholgrewby.8%and-7.3%yearonyearrespectively.23%18%13%8%3%-2%-7%社社会零售总额同比Yearonyeartotalretailsales资料来源：国家统计局Source:NationalBureauofStatisticsofChina2019-20222019-2022年各品类消费增速三年间复合增速(2019-2022年各品类消费增速5%2019-2022ConsumptionGrowth5%2019-2022ConsumptionGrowtht食品烟酒4%growthrateinthreeyearsfrom2019to2022(%)Food医医疗保健HealthCare其其他用品及服务 suppliesand suppliesandandservices3%4%-4%andservices3%4%-4%-3%0%services1%2%衣着衣着Garments资料来源：洞见研报行业前沿资料来源：洞见研报行业前沿Source:DJIndustryForefrontcultureandentertainmentTheJiang-flavorliquorremainsinthetopleaguedespitetheslowergrowthofBaijiuindustry，世界经济形势起伏波动和疫情的反复导致消费场景收缩，使得高度依赖聚集型消费负面冲击，对企业的应变能力和市场效率要求大大提高。Inrecentyears,globaleconomicfluctuationsandrecurringoutburstsofCovid-19triggeredthewithdrawalofconsumptionscenesandhardhittheBaijiutradethatheavilydependsonget-togetherconsumptionactivities,imposingmorerigorousdemandsontheresilienceandmarketefficiencyonbusinesses.业总体呈现挤压时增长的特征，具体表现为，规模以上白酒企业的产销量到峰值后开始回落，销售收入增速也在放缓，主要由于白酒行业供给侧调整所消费量增速放缓与经济增长放缓，疫情反复等宏观不稳定因素相关。Since2016,theBaijiuindustryhasbeenstrugglingwithpressure-fedgrowth:TheoutputandsalesoftheBaijiuenterprisesabovedesignatedsizehavebeenfallingwhenhitthepeakin2016withaslow-downonsalesincomegrowth.Itwascausedbythesupply-sideadjustmentsofBaijiuindustryTheslowerconsumptiongrowthofBaijiuisrelatedtosuchunstabilizingfactorsasdeceleratedeconomicgrowthandrecurringepidemic.2022年1-9月，中国白酒行业规模以上企业累计完成产品销售收入4875.81亿元，与上年同期相比增长14.9%由于疫情的反复波动，我们预计2022年第四季度白酒主要规模上市企业销售缓；2022年全年整体销售略低于2021年。FromJanuarytoSeptember2022,thesalesincomegainedbyBaijiuenterprisesabovedesignatedsizeinChinatotaledRMB487.581billion,upby14.9%yearonyear.Consideringtheepidemicrelapses,thesalesincomegrowthofmajorlarge-sizedpublicBaijiucompaniesisexpectedtoslowdowninQ4,2022,resultinginaslightlylowerannualoverallsalesthanthatin2021.酒行业规模以上企业整体表现中，贵州茅台，作为酱酒行业的头部品牌，无论在市值还是2022年前三季度收入上，行业第一，龙头地位稳固。其他酱酒酒企也有着不逊的表现。2022年全年郎酒和习酒营收均超200亿元。在当下不稳定的宏观环境下，酱酒的表现依然名Amongtheliquorenterprisesabovethedesignatedsize,KweichowMoutai,astheleaderoftheJiang-flavorliquor,remainedtop1onmarketvalueandtheincomeofQ1toQ3,2022,anall-timedominatingplayer.OtherJiang-flavorliquorcompaniesalsohaveagoodperformance.In2022,therevenueofLangjiuandXijiubothexceededRMB20billion.TheJiang-flavorliquorcametopinbusinessperformancedespitecurrentunstablebigpicture.7,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,000-2016-2022年第三季度中国白酒行业主要上市企业销售收入及增长情况SalesrevenueandgrowthofChina’smajorlistedBaijiuenterprisesfrom2016to2022Q344,8765,8365,6185,3645,6546,1266,0332016201720182019202020212022/1-9月白酒行业主要上市企业销售收入(亿元)增长率20%15%10%5%0%-5%资料来源：国家统计局，前瞻产业研究院Source:NationalBureauofStatisticsofChina,QianzhanIndustrialResearchInstituteD22022Q1-Q3income(RMB100million)89823,6195587,9692213,64294,8183,641204,3322,780109,9481,549企业Enterprise贵州茅台KweichowMoutai五粮液Wuliangye山西汾酒ShanxiFenWine泸州老窖LuzhouOldCellar洋河股份Yanghe古井贡酒GujinggongLiquor2021年产量(吨)2021Output(tones)总市值(亿元)Totalmarketvalue(RMB100million)84,721188,717156,2432022前三季度收入(亿元)2651291752022年白酒市场发展动态22022年白酒市场发展动态2022BaijiuMarketDynamics22In2022,thecapacityofJiang-Flavorliquorreachabout700thousandkl,accountingfor10.43%oftheChina‘sliquorproductioncapacityof6,71.2millionliters.ThesalesrevenuereachedRMB210billion,up10.5%yearonyear,accountingforabout31.69%oftheRMB662.65billionofChineseliquorindustry;ItachievedaprofitofaboutRMB87billion,up11.5%yearonyear,accountingforabout39.51%oftheRMB220.17billioninprofitofthecountry'sliquorindustry.2022年，宏观经济层面面临较大下行压力，疫情多点爆发带来消费场景受损，整体消费能力、消费信心不足，需求端受到显著冲击。但白酒企业业绩表现出较强韧性。经历了诸多变革之后，面放开，为2023年白酒行业带来了新的机遇。2022sawcrushingdownwardpressureonthemacroeconomyandtheconsumptionsceneshard-hitbyepidemicoutbursts,wherethespendingpowerandconsumerconfidenceweredentedanddemand-sideimpacted.Withimpressiveperformance,Baijiufirmsshowedremarkableresilience.Fortunately,themultipletransformationsandloosenedepidemicpreventionandcontrolinitiativeswillusherinnewopportunitiesfortheBaijiuindustryin2023.Favorablelong-termpolicies政策利好信号不断，推动行业更有序、更高质量的发展。其中尤为引人关注的，是今年年初国务院印发的新国发2号文件，其中明确提出不断提升中国(贵州)国际酒类博览会的展会影响力；推进传统产业提质升级，支持贵州发挥赤水河流域酱香型白酒原产地和主产区，建设全国重要的白酒生产基地；支持赤水河流域等一体化保护修复和创新生态产品价机制，明确支持贵州白酒产业发展。IngovernmentbodiesatalllevelslaunchedahostofinstructionsandlocalpoliciestosupporttherobustandsteadygrowthofBaijiuindustry.Suchencouragingandfriendlygesturesdeliveredbypolicieswillcontributetotheorderedandqualitydevelopmentofthistrade.WhatparticularlynoteworthywastheNo.2Xin-Guo-FadocumentissuedbytheStateCouncilearlythisyear,whichstatedthateffortswillbemadetoupgradethepresenceofChina’sGuizhouininternationalalcoholconventions,stepupthequalityupgradeoftraditionalindustrybyleveragingtheadvantagesofChishuiRiverbasininGuizhouastheoriginandmainproducingareasoftheJiang-flavorliquor,thusbuildinganationalstrongholdofBaijiuproduction.Moreover,measuresshouldbetakentosecuretheintegratedconservationandrestorationforChishuiRiverbasinandrealizethevalueofinnovativeeco-friendlyproducts.力推进实施2022年2500个重点民间投资项目的通知》，涉022年贵州省重大工程和重点项目名单中涉及酒类项目61个。可以预见的是，2022-2025年，贵州省白酒产能将迎来大提速，对酱酒产业格局有重要影响。细分来看，这些项目主要集中在以茅台为引领的仁怀产区、习酒为引领的习水产区、珍酒为引领的汇川产区。而规划达到10万吨的仅有茅台、习酒、珍酒。Ontopofthat,GuizhouProvincialDevelopmentandReformCommissionissuedANoticeonVigorouslyPromotingtheImplementationof2,500KeyPrivateInvestmentProjectsin2022,concerningmorethan60projectsofalcoholicdrinks.In2022,therewere61projectsofalcoholicdrinkslistedintothemajorworksandkeyprojectsofGuizhouProvince.Itisforeseeablethattheperiodfrom2022to2025willheraldaboomintheBaijiucapacityinGuizhouwithaprofoundimpactontheindustrypatternoftheJiang-flavorliquor.Atacloserlook,theseprojectsaremainlylocatedintheproductionareasofHuairendominatedbyMoutai,XishuidominatedbyXijiuandHuichuandominatedbyZhenjiu.Moutai,XijiuandZhenjiuaretheonlyproductsplannedwithoutputupto100,000tons.Steadyandprogressivegrowthinliquorsegment类风口下，酱酒产业形成了以茅台为引领，郎酒、习酒、国台、金、钓鱼台为头部的“一超多强”的品牌格局。其中，除郎酒外，主要酱酒品牌多集州赤水河流域，以仁怀、习水、金沙等行政区为主。Meanwhile类风口下，酱酒产业形成了以茅台为引领，郎酒、习酒、国台、金、钓鱼台为头部的“一超多强”的品牌格局。其中，除郎酒外，主要酱酒品牌多集州赤水河流域，以仁怀、习水、金沙等行政区为主。Meanwhile,inthecontextofasweepingfadfortheJiang-flavorliquor,onesuperpower(Moutai)andmanypowers(Langjiu,Xijiu,Guotai,Jinsha,ZhenjiuandDiaoyutaiDistillery)haveemergedandshone.ThosebrandsoftheJiang-flavorliquor,exceptforLangjiu,aredistributedaroundChishuiRiverbasin,mainlylocatedinsuchadministrativeregionsasRenhuai,XishuiandJinsha.体量上看，贵州茅台一骑绝尘，2022年前三季度营收897.9亿元，净利443.9亿元。KweichowMoutaiexcelsonbusinesssizewithatotalrevenueofRMB89.79billionandanetprofitofRMB4.39billionfromQ1toQ3in2022.RevenueofotherbrandsoftheJiang-flavorliquor2022:TherevenueofLangjiuandXijiubothexceededRMB20billionin2022andZhenjiuachievedRMB7.6billionofrevenueinQ1toQ32022.状态，22Q3疫情逐步好转叠加双节良好的消费氛围，环比Q2。其中，高端白酒强韧性，稳增长。Thankstotheoptimizedepidemiccontainmentmeasures,Baijiusegmentfoundrecoveringprosperityin2022.Duringthefirstthreequartersof2022,Baijiusegmentrecordedanoverallsteadyprogress.2022Q3sawaquarterlygrowthbolsteredbytheimprovingepidemicsituationandthefavorableconsumptionatmosphereduringNationalDayandMid-AutumnFestival.High-endBaijiuboastedexcellentresilienceandsteadygrowth.2022年前三季度，五粮液股份公司实现营收557.80亿元，实现净利润199.89亿元，同比增长29.65亿元；今世缘营收为23.18亿元；泸州老窖实现营收175.25Inthefirstthreequartersof2022,WuliangyeachievedarevenueofRMB55.78billionandnetprofitofRMB19.99billion,upby15.36%yearonyear.GujinggongLiquorgainedarevenueofRMB12.97billion,King'sLuck,RMB2.32billion;LuzhouOldCellar,RMB17.53billionandYanghe,illion”品牌格局Leadingthebrandoftheheadenterprise,formingthebrandpatternof“onesuperbrandandmulti-greatbrands”白酒市场竞争日益剧烈的背景下，市场逐渐走向分化，继续呈现“向优势品牌、向优势产、向优势产区”三集中的发展趋势，尤其是一批企业依靠品牌、渠道、资本等优势，形成的头部市场，体现名优白酒在中国消费市场的地位及行业的顽强生命力。UnderthebackgroundofincreasinglyfiercecompetitionintheBaijiumarket,themarketgraduallymovestowarddifferentiation,andcontinuestoshowthedevelopmenttrendof“towardthesuperiorbrand,productioncapacity,producingareas”.Inparticular,anumberofenterprisesrelyonbrands,channels,capitalandotheradvantagestoformarelativelystableheadmarket,reflectingthestatusoffamousandhigh-qualityspiritsinChina’sconsumermarketandtheindomitablevitalityoftheindustry.，规模以上白酒企业从2017年至今减少了632家，产业集中度进一步提升的局势。而前五强茅台、五粮液、洋河、汾酒、泸州老窖117亿元，约占全国总营收额的43%。未来白酒行业将逐步跑出行业龙头，进集中度。ThecompetitionintheBaijiuindustryhasledtothestrongrevenueoftheheadbrand,thedeclineinthenumberofenterprises,thereductionof632liquorenterprisesabovescalefrom2017tonow,andthefurtherimprovementofindustrialconcentration.However,thecombinedrevenueofthetopfive-Moutai,Wuliangye,Yanghe,FenjiuandLuzhouLaojiao-wasaboutRMB211.7billion,accountingfor43%ofthecountry’stotalrevenue.Inthefuture,theBaijiuindustrywillgraduallyrunoutoftheindustryleader,furtherdeepeningtheindustryconcentration.白酒头部品牌竞争，会加剧品牌与品类、香型与产区、品类与品味之间的对抗和充分竞争，区、品类之间的互相融合，促进酒业行业向更高质量层面持续发展。ThecompetitionofBaijiuheadbrandwillnotonlyintensifytheconfrontationandfullcompetitionbetweenbrandandcategory,aromatypeandproductionarea,categoryandtaste,butalsopromotetheintegrationofaromatype,productionareaandcategory,andboostthesustainabledevelopmentoftheliquorindustrytoahigherqualitylevel.行业已逐步跑出以贵州茅台为首，实现“一超多强”的行业格局。TakingtheJiang-flavorliquorasanexample,thecurrentJiang-flavorliquorindustryisnolongerheadedbyKweichowMoutai,andhasformedanindustrypatternof“onesuperbrandandmulti-现具有影响力的头部品牌。目前，各家大单品逐步“跑出圈”逐渐占据对应价格带。BaijiuBlockchainInstituteofLiquorStandardsestimatedearlierthatinthesegmentoftheJiang-flavorliquor,eachofthesepricerangeswillexpectaninfluentialleadingbrand.Nowtheseup-andcomingbestsellersaretakingoffandgrabbingthemarketshareoftherelevantpriceranges.前三梯队纷纷涌出“大单品”占领对应价格带。酱香型白酒市场出现具有全国范围影响力大单品，成为消费者心中专属价格带的硬通货。从价格分布来看，酱香型白酒价格带角特征。Ahostofknock-outproductsareemergingfromthebrandsoftopthreetierstooccupytheircorrespondingpricezones.ThosecoreitemswithnationalinfluencehittingthemarketoftheJiang-flavorliquorwillbecomethemuch-covetedhardcurrencyineachpricezone.ThepricedispersionoftheJiang-flavorliquorfeaturesaninvertedtrianglestructure.据终端零售价划分，单瓶千元以上属于高端价格带，飞天茅台占据绝对统治地位。其次郎花郎近两年逐步提价，以“赤水河左岸，庄园酱酒”为名成为千元价格带强势产品。Dividedbytheretailterminalprice,theproductssoldmorethanRMB1,000perbottlebelongtohigh-endpricerange,dominatedbyKweichowMoutai-Feitian.Qinghualang,Langjiuhasbeenliftingitspriceinrecenttwoyears,toutedastheauthenticJiang-flavorliquororiginatedfromtheleftbankofChishuiRiver,risingasacompetitiveproductinthesamepricezone.500-1000元价格带属于次高端市场，也是目前除“茅台段位”外，竞争最为激烈、品类众多火热地带。在消费升级带动下，消费者对酱香型白酒的认知逐渐成熟，为了“喝好酒、品高价值性和酿造工艺复杂的特点，中低端酱香型白酒产品在整体酱香型白酒市场中占比ThepricezonerangingfromRMB500to1,000,definedasthesub-highendsegment,isbyfarafiercebattlefieldviedbythemostproductsexceptforthepremiumzoneofMoutai.Consumers,drivenbyupgradingconsumption,arebecomingincreasinglyfamilia