公司理财npv学习课件

WhyNetPresentValueLeadstoBetterInvestmentDecisionsthanOtherCriteriaCorporateFinanceChapter9McGrawHill/Irwin第一页，共四十六页。TopicsCoveredNPVanditsCompetitorsThePaybackPeriodTheAverageAccountingReturnInternalRateofReturnCapitalRationing第二页，共四十六页。CFODecisionToolsSurveyDataonCFOUseofInvestmentEvaluationTechniquesSOURCE:GrahamandHarvey,“TheTheoryandPracticeofFinance:EvidencefromtheField,”JournalofFinancialEconomics61(2001),pp.187-243.第三页，共四十六页。GoodDecisionCriteriaWeneedtoaskourselvesthefollowingquestionswhenevaluatingcapitalbudgetingdecisionrules:Doesthedecisionruleadjustforthetimevalueofmoney?Doesthedecisionruleadjustforrisk?Doesthedecisionruleprovideinformationonwhetherwearecreatingvalueforthefirm?9-4第四页，共四十六页。NetPresentValueThedifferencebetweenthemarketvalueofaprojectanditscost.NetPresentValue(NPV)=﹣InitialInvestment+TotalPVoffutureCF’s9-5第五页，共四十六页。NPV–DecisionRuleEstimatingNPV:1.Estimatefuturecashflows:howmuch?andwhen?2.Estimatediscountrate3.Estimateinitialcosts第六页，共四十六页。NPV–DecisionRuleIftheNPVispositive,accepttheprojectApositiveNPVmeansthattheprojectisexpectedtoaddvaluetothefirmandwillthereforeincreasethewealthoftheowners.Sinceourgoalistoincreaseownerwealth,NPVisadirectmeasureofhowwellthisprojectwillmeetourgoal.9-7第七页，共四十六页。NPV–DecisionRuleMinimumAcceptanceCriteria:AcceptifNPV>0RankingCriteria:ChoosethehighestNPVExample9.1seepage263第八页，共四十六页。PaybackThepaybackperiodofaprojectisthenumberofyearsittakesbeforethecumulativeforecastedcashflowequalstheinitialoutlay.Thepaybackrulesaysonlyacceptprojectsthat“payback”inthedesiredtimeframe.Thismethodisveryflawed,primarilybecauseitignoreslateryearcashflowsandthethepresentvalueoffuturecashflows.第九页，共四十六页。PaybackExample Examinethethreeprojectsandnotethemistakewewouldmakeifweinsistedononlytakingprojectswithapaybackperiodof2yearsorless.第十页，共四十六页。PaybackExample Examinethethreeprojectsandnotethemistakewewouldmakeifweinsistedononlytakingprojectswithapaybackperiodof2yearsorless.第十一页，共四十六页。DecisionCriteriaTest-PaybackDoesthepaybackruleaccountforthetimevalueofmoney?Doesthepaybackruleaccountfortheriskofthecashflows?Doesthepaybackruleprovideanindicationabouttheincreaseinvalue?Shouldweconsiderthepaybackruleforourprimarydecisionrule?9-12第十二页，共四十六页。AdvantagesandDisadvantagesofPaybackAdvantagesEasytounderstandAdjustsforuncertaintyoflatercashflowsBiasedtowardliquidityDisadvantagesIgnoresthetimevalueofmoneyRequiresanarbitrarycutoffpointIgnorescashflowsbeyondthecutoffdateBiasedagainstlong-termprojects,suchasresearchanddevelopment,andnewprojects9-13第十三页，共四十六页。DiscountedPaybackPeriodComputethepresentvalueofeachcashflowandthendeterminehowlongittakestopaybackonadiscountedbasisComparetoaspecifiedrequiredperiodDecisionRule-Accepttheprojectifitpaysbackonadiscountedbasiswithinthespecifiedtime9-14第十四页，共四十六页。ComputingDiscountedPaybackfortheProjectAssumewewillaccepttheprojectifitpaysbackonadiscountedbasisin2years.ComputethePVforeachcashflowanddeterminethepaybackperiodusingdiscountedcashflowsYear1:165,000–63,120/1.121=108,643Year2:108,643–70,800/1.122=52,202Year3:52,202–91,080/1.123=-12,627projectpaysbackinyear3Doweacceptorrejecttheproject?9-15第十五页，共四十六页。AdvantagesandDisadvantagesofDiscountedPaybackAdvantagesIncludestimevalueofmoneyEasytounderstandDoesnotacceptnegativeestimatedNPVinvestmentswhenallfuturecashflowsarepositiveBiasedtowardsliquidityDisadvantagesMayrejectpositiveNPVinvestmentsRequiresanarbitrarycutoffpointIgnorescashflowsbeyondthecutoffpointBiasedagainstlong-termprojects,suchasR&Dandnewproducts9-16第十六页，共四十六页。AverageAccountingReturnTherearemanydifferentdefinitionsforaverageaccountingreturnTheoneusedinthebookis:Averagenetincome/averagebookvalueNotethattheaveragebookvaluedependsonhowtheassetisdepreciated.NeedtohaveatargetcutoffrateDecisionRule:AccepttheprojectiftheAARisgreaterthanapresetrate9-17第十七页，共四十六页。ComputingAARfortheProjectAssumewerequireanaverageaccountingreturnof25%AverageNetIncome:(13,620+3,300+29,100)/3=15,340AAR=15,340/72,000=.213=21.3%Doweacceptorrejecttheproject?9-18第十八页，共四十六页。DecisionCriteriaTest-AARDoestheAARruleaccountforthetimevalueofmoney?DoestheAARruleaccountfortheriskofthecashflows?DoestheAARruleprovideanindicationabouttheincreaseinvalue?ShouldweconsidertheAARruleforourprimarydecisionrule?9-19第十九页，共四十六页。AdvantagesandDisadvantagesofAARAdvantagesEasytocalculateNeededinformationwillusuallybeavailableDisadvantagesNotatruerateofreturn;timevalueofmoneyisignoredUsesanarbitrarybenchmarkcutoffrateBasedonaccountingnetincomeandbookvalues,notcashflowsandmarketvalues9-20第二十页，共四十六页。IRR–DefinitionandDecisionRuleDefinition:IRRisthereturnthatmakestheNPV=0DecisionRule:AccepttheprojectiftheIRRisgreaterthantherequiredreturn9-21第二十一页，共四十六页。InternalRateofReturnExample Youcanpurchaseaturbopoweredmachinetoolgadgetfor$4,000.Theinvestmentwillgenerate$2,000and$4,000incashflowsfortwoyears,respectively.WhatistheIRRonthisinvestment?第二十二页，共四十六页。InternalRateofReturnExample Youcanpurchaseaturbopoweredmachinetoolgadgetfor$4,000.Theinvestmentwillgenerate$2,000and$4,000incashflowsfortwoyears,respectively.WhatistheIRRonthisinvestment?第二十三页，共四十六页。InternalRateofReturnExample Youcanpurchaseaturbopoweredmachinetoolgadgetfor$4,000.Theinvestmentwillgenerate$2,000and$4,000incashflowsfortwoyears,respectively.WhatistheIRRonthisinvestment?第二十四页，共四十六页。InternalRateofReturnIRR=28%第二十五页，共四十六页。DecisionCriteriaTest-IRRDoestheIRRruleaccountforthetimevalueofmoney?DoestheIRRruleaccountfortheriskofthecashflows?DoestheIRRruleprovideanindicationabouttheincreaseinvalue?ShouldweconsidertheIRRruleforourprimarydecisioncriteria?9-26第二十六页，共四十六页。SummaryofDecisionsfortheProjectSummaryNetPresentValueAcceptPaybackPeriodRejectDiscountedPaybackPeriodRejectAverageAccountingReturnRejectInternalRateofReturnAccept9-27第二十七页，共四十六页。NPVvs.IRRNPVandIRRwillgenerallygiveusthesamedecisionExceptionsNonconventionalcashflows–cashflowsignschangemorethanonceMutuallyexclusiveprojectsInitialinvestmentsaresubstantiallydifferent(issueofscale)Timingofcashflowsissubstantiallydifferent9-28第二十八页，共四十六页。InternalRateofReturnPitfall1-LendingorBorrowing?Withsomecashflows(asnotedbelow)theNPVoftheprojectincreasessthediscountrateincreases.ThisiscontrarytothenormalrelationshipbetweenNPVanddiscountrates.

第二十九页，共四十六页。InternalRateofReturnPitfall1-LendingorBorrowing?Withsomecashflows(asnotedbelow)theNPVoftheprojectincreasessthediscountrateincreases.ThisiscontrarytothenormalrelationshipbetweenNPVanddiscountrates.

DiscountRateNPV第三十页，共四十六页。InternalRateofReturnPitfall2-MultipleRatesofReturnCertaincashflowscangenerateNPV=0attwodifferentdiscountrates.ThefollowingcashflowgeneratesNPV=$A3.3millionatbothIRR%of(-44%)and+11.6%.

CashFlows(millionsofAustraliandollars)第三十一页，共四十六页。InternalRateofReturnPitfall2-MultipleRatesofReturnCertaincashflowscangenerateNPV=0attwodifferentdiscountrates.ThefollowingcashflowgeneratesNPV=0atboth(-50%)and15.2%.

1000NPV5000-500-1000DiscountRateIRR=15.2%IRR=-50%第三十二页，共四十六页。IRRandMutuallyExclusiveProjectsMutuallyexclusiveprojectsIfyouchooseone,youcan’tchoosetheotherExample:YoucanchoosetoattendgraduateschoolateitherHarvardorStanford,butnotbothIntuitively,youwouldusethefollowingdecisionrules:NPV–choosetheprojectwiththehigherNPVIRR–choosetheprojectwiththehigherIRR9-33第三十三页，共四十六页。ExampleWithMutually

ExclusiveProjectsPeriodProjectAProjectB0-500-40013253252325200IRR19.43%22.17%NPV64.0560.74Therequiredreturnforbothprojectsis10%.Whichprojectshouldyouacceptandwhy?9-34第三十四页，共四十六页。NPVProfilesIRRforA=19.43%IRRforB=22.17%CrossoverPoint=11.8%9-35第三十五页，共四十六页。ConflictsBetweenNPVandIRRNPVdirectlymeasurestheincreaseinvaluetothefirmWheneverthereisaconflictbetweenNPVandanotherdecisionrule,youshouldalwaysuseNPVIRRisunreliableinthefollowingsituationsNonconventionalcashflowsMutuallyexclusiveprojects9-36第三十六页，共四十六页。AdvantagesandDisadvantagesofinternalrateofreturnAdvantagesCloselyrelatedtoNPV,generallyleadingtoidenticaldecisionsEasytounderstandandcommunicateDisadvantagesMayleadtoincorrectdecisionsincomparisonsofmutuallyexclusiveinvestmentsMayresultinmultipleanswersornotdealwithnonconventionalcashflows.9-37第三十七页，共四十六页。ProfitabilityIndexWhenresourcesarelimited,theprofitabilityindex(PI)providesatoolforselectingamongvariousprojectcombinationsandalternativesAsetoflimitedresourcesandprojectscanyieldvariouscombinations.ThehighestweightedaveragePIcanindicatewhichprojectstoselect.第三十八页，共四十六页。ProfitabilityIndexExampleWeonlyhave$300,000toinvest.Whichdoweselect?Proj NPV Investment PIA 230,000 200,000 1.15B 141,250 125,000 1.13C 194,250 175,000 1.11D 162,000 150,000 1.08第三十九页，共四十六页。ProfitabilityIndexExample-continuedProj NPV Investment PIA 230,000 200,000 1.15B 141,250 125,000 1.13C 194,250 175,000 1.11D 162,000 150,000 1.08SelectprojectswithhighestWeightedAvgPIWAPI(BD)=1.13(125)+1.08(150)+0.0(25)(300)(300)(300)=1.01第四十页，共四十六页。ProfitabilityIndexExample-continuedProj NPV Investment PIA 230,000 200,000 1.15B 141,250 125,000 1.13C 194,250 175,000 1.11D 162,000 150,000 1.08SelectprojectswithhighestWeightedAvgPI WAPI(BD)=1.01 WAPI(A)=0.77

WAPI(BC)=1.12第四十一页，共四十六页。AdvantagesandDisadvantagesofProfitabilityIndexAdvantagesCloselyrelatedtoNPV,generallyleadingtoidenticaldecisionsEasytounderstandandcommunicateMaybeusefulwhenavailableinvestmentfundsarelimitedDisadvantagesMayleadtoincorrectdecisionsincomparisonsofmutuallyexclusiveinvestments9-42第四十二页，共四十六页。Summary–DCFCriteriaNetpresentvalueDifferencebetweenmarketvalueandcostTaketheprojectiftheNPVispositiveHasnoseriousproblemsPreferreddecisioncriterionInternalrateofreturnDiscountratethatmakesNPV=0TaketheprojectiftheIRRisgreaterthantherequiredreturnSamedecisionasNPVw