Ctia-需要多少许可频谱才能满足未来对净工作容量的需求

NOTICE

•ThisreportwaspreparedforCTIA,inaccordancewithTheBrattleGroup’sengagementterms,andisintendedtobereadandusedasawholeandnotinparts.

•ThereportreflectstheanalysesandopinionsoftheauthorsanddoesnotnecessarilyreflectthoseofTheBrattleGroup’sclientsorotherconsultants.

•Theanalysesandopinionsreflectinformationavailabletotheauthorsatthetimeofpublication.

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•WewouldliketothankRyanTaylor,SheaPeretz,MeganSullivanandNatalieSelfiefortheircontributiontothispaper.

HowMuchLicensedSpectrumisNeededtoMeetFutureDemandsforNetworkCapacity?B|2

CONTENTS

ExecutiveSummary 3

Introduction 5

DemandforCapacity 7

GrowthinWirelessTraffic 7

MobileTrafficComposition 10

TrafficOffloading 12

TheSupplySideInputs 13

SpectrumAvailability 13

CurrentSpectrumInventory 13

SpectrumUsedandRelativeEffectiveness 16

SpectralEfficiency 19

BuildingCellSites 21

AbsentCapacityfromMoreFull-Powered,LicensedSpectrumMacro

NetworksWillLikelyBeConstrained 24

CapacityConstraintandSpectrumDeficitifNoNewSpectrumisMadeAvailable 24

TheEffectofDemandShockandNewSpectrumAvailabilityonCapacityConstraintand

SpectrumDeficit 25

Conclusion 26

Appendices 28

AppendixA:DemandandTrafficGrowth 28

AppendixB:Infrastructure 30

AppendixC:CalculatingSpectrumDeficitUnderAlternativeScenarios 31

HowMuchLicensedSpectrumisNeededtoMeetFutureDemandsforNetworkCapacity?B|3

In5years,bytheendof2027,theU.S.isexpectedtohaveacapacitydeficitofover10exabytes/month.Intenyears,by2032,thisdeficitcouldgrowtoapproximately17exabytes/month.

ExecutiveSummary

_________

Mobiledatademandisexploding,withaggregatedatadownloadedquadruplinginthelastsevenyears.Newandinnovativeusesenabledby5G,aswellastheprospectof6Gapplications,pointtowardsfurtherincreasesinexpecteddemandformobilenetworkcapacity.Unfortunately,theU.S.spectrumlandscapeappearstobestalled,withnoclearprospectsforsignificantspectrumreallocationsthisyearandinsufficientbandsunderconsiderationforreallocationinthecomingyears.Thislackofaspectrumpipeline,coupledwiththelapseoftheFederalCommunicationsCommission(FCC)auctionauthority,hasraisedtheprospectofsignificantcapacityconstraintsintheterrestrialwirelessspace,andconcernthatthismaylimittheU.S.’sabilitytobealeaderinthisarea.ThispaperinvestigatesthiscapacityconstraintandestimatesthelikelyspectrumdeficittheU.S.willfaceoverthenextdecadeabsentpolicymakersallocatingadditionalfull-power,licensedspectrum.

Weexamineseveralpotentialmechanismstoeasethegapbetweenprojecteddemandformobiledataandestimatedfuturecapacityofmobilenetworks.Obviouslyonewaytoalignsupplyanddemandissimplythroughreducingnetworkusage.Restrictedofferingsorhigherpricescouldlimitdemandtomaintainnetworkperformanceinthefaceofinadequatesupplyofcapacity.Thisapproachwouldreducethegrowthofinnovativeapplications,ultimatelyrestrainingeconomicgrowthandpotentialU.S.leadershipwithoutanyrealbenefittousers.Weassumepolicymakerswouldseektoavoidthisoutcome.

Twohistoricallyeffectiveavenuesforincreasingmobilenetworkcapacityincludeimprovementsinspectralefficiencyandaddingmorephysicalinfrastructuresuchasbasestationsorcelltowers.Unfortunately,bothoftheseoptionsareapproachingseriouslimitations,asweanalyzebelow.Evenunderoptimisticprojectedimprovementsintheareasofspectralefficiencyandinfrastructuredeployment,theU.S.willstillfaceasignificantcapacitydeficit—leavingadditional

newmobilespectrumallocationsas

essentialtomeetprojectedfuturedemand.

Extrapolatingfromhistoricaltrends,we

projectthatdatatrafficonthemacro

networkisexpectedtoincreasebyover

250%inthenext5yearsandbyover500%

inthenext10years.Ifnonewspectrum

HowMuchLicensedSpectrumisNeededtoMeetFutureDemandsforNetworkCapacity?B|4

Absentanynewspectrum,in5years,by2027,theU.S.isexpectedtohaveaspectrumdeficitofnearly400megahertz.Intenyears,by2032,thisdeficitcouldmorethantripletoapproximately1,400megahertz.

bandsareallocatedforwirelessuseinthenext5-10years,weestimatethatby2027,theU.S.

couldfaceaspectrumdeficitof

approximately400megahertz,andby

2032,thisdeficitwillhavemorethan

tripledtoover1,400megahertz,

normalizedtolowermid-bandequivalent

spectrum,licensedatfullpower.1Toavoid

thisdeficit,workneedstobeginnowon

fillingthespectrumpipeline.2

1Thereportanalyzesthespectrumdeficitintermsofanormalizedbandofspectrumwithpropagationcharacteristicsof1-2GHzfrequency,averagepowerlimits,andfreeofencumbrances—bandswithothercharacteristicswillvaryintheamountneededtocoverthecapacitydeficit.

2Theauthorsrecognizethatalotcanchangeoverthestudiedtimeperiod,sowealsocalculatedpotentialspectrumdeficitsusingotherdemandprojections.Wefoundthatunderallplausiblescenariosweexamined,theUnitedStateswillhaveasubstantialspectrumdeficitin2027andanevenlargerdeficitin2032.

HowMuchLicensedSpectrumisNeededtoMeetFutureDemandsforNetworkCapacity?B|5

Introduction

TheglobalCOVIDpandemicmovedalargepartoftheworkforceandacademiafromphysicaltovirtualworkandlearningspaces,leadingtoanexplosionofdemandfordatainbothwiredandwirelessnetworks.3Consumersandbusinesseslargeandsmallusedmobilebroadbandnetworksatanunprecedentedpaceforavarietyofuses,includingschoolwork,shopping,entertainment,andtelemedicine.4Thetrendcontinueswithhybridworkoptionsandpeopleusingmoredata-intensiveapplicationsontheirmobilephones.

Insevenyears,from2015to2022,globalmobiletrafficincreasedfromfiveexabytespermonthto93exabytespermonth–amorethan18-foldincrease.5Overthatperiod,aggregatedatademandinNorthAmericahasmorethanquadrupled.6In5years,from2021to2027,theaveragemonthlydatausagepersmartphoneinNorthAmericaisexpectedtogrowfrom15GBto52GB–morethantriplingperdevicedataconsumption.7Newandinnovativeusesenabledby5G,theproliferationofInternetofThings(IoT)devices,enhancedmobilebroadband,augmentedandvirtualrealityapplications,aredramaticallyincreasingdemandformobilenetworkcapacity.8Thesetrendshaveraisedthespecterofsignificantcapacityconstraintsandspectrumshortfalls

3BruceDuysen,“5Gandtheageofpandemic:AlookattheUS,”April27,2020,lastaccessedDecember15,2022,RCRWirelessNews,/20200427/opinion/readerforum/5g-and-the-age-of-pandemic-reader-forum.

4KarthikeyanIyengar,GauravK.Upadhyaya,RajuVaishya,andVijayJain,“COVID-19andApplicationsofSmartphoneTechnologyintheCurrentPandemic,”Diabetes&MetabolicSyndrome:ClinicalResearch&Reviews,Vol.14(5),September-October,2020,

/science/article/abs/pii/S1871402120301521?via%3Dihub

.

5Ericsson,“MobilityReport,”Ericsson,June,2022,lastaccessedAugust16,2022,atp.15,availableat

/49d3a0/assets/local/reports-papers/mobility-report/documents/2022/ericsson-

mobility-report-june-2022.pdf(“EricssonMobilityReport,June2022”).Note:Oneexabyteequalsonebilliongigabytes.See,AlexanderS.Gillis,“WhatisanExabyte?”TechTarget,lastaccessedAugust21,2022,

/searchstorage/definition/exabyte

.

6See,EricssonMobilityReport,June2022,atpp.17-19.NotethatEricssonreportsthemobiletrafficnumberforNorthAmericaandnotjusttheUS.HoweverthevastmajorityofthetrafficisUS-based.

7See,EricssonMobilityReport,June2022,atpp.17-19.NotethatEricssonreportsthemobiletrafficnumberforNorthAmericaandnotjusttheUS.HoweverthevastmajorityofthetrafficisUS-based.Seealso,GSMA,“TheMobileEconomy–NorthAmerica2022,”accessedDecember25,2022,p.13,

/mobileeconomy/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/290922-Mobile-Economy-North-

America-2022.pdf.

8Ericsson,“EricssonMobilityReport,”November2022,lastaccessedDecember19,2022,atp.22,

/4ae28d/assets/local/reports-papers/mobility-report/documents/2022/ericsson-

mobility-report-november-2022.pdf(“EricssonMobilityReport,November2022”).Seealso,NomanM.Alam,MarkRacek,andKumarBalachandran,“Mid-BandSpectrum–Layingastrongfoundationfor5G,”Ericsson,July4,2022,lastaccessedDecember15,2022,/en/blog/6/2022/mid-band-spectrum-in-the-us-a-strong-foundation-for-5g,(“Mid-Bandspectrum–Layingastrongfoundationfor5G”).

HowMuchLicensedSpectrumisNeededtoMeetFutureDemandsforNetworkCapacity?B|6

inmobilenetworksandconcernthatthismayconstraintheU.S.’sabilitytobealeaderindata-intensive5Gapplications.9

Engineersremindusthatthereareseveralwaystoavoidcapacityconstraintsonwirelessnetworks,suchasthroughinstallingmoreequipmentorinfusingmorespectrumintothenetwork.10Inthispaperweaccountfortheinterrelatedandcomplementarytoolsthatcanhelpsolvethegapbetweenthedemandforandsupplyofcapacityinthemobilenetwork,estimatinghowtowhatextentnon-spectruminputscangotowardmeetingdemand.Wefindnon-spectrumavenueslackingevenunderhighlyoptimisticscenarios,leavingmorefull-power,licensedspectrumasthemosteffectivewaytomeetprojectedwirelessdemand.

Thispaperaimstoidentifyhowmuchadditionalfull-power,licensedspectrumisneededtoclosetheprojectedgapbetweendemandforwirelessservicesandnetworkcapacityprojections.Section

II

discussesthedemandfordataandtheexpectedgrowthindatademandforthenextfiveto10years.SectionIIIpresentstheavailableinventoryofspectrumtoday,aswellasbrieflydiscussingvarioussupply-sidefactorsusedtohelpmeetdemand.SectionIVdiscussesthespectrumdeficitestimation,concludingthatevenunderoptimisticscenariostheUnitedStateswouldfaceadeficitofapproximately400megahertzinfiveyears,growingtoover1,423megahertzintenyears.11

ThisanalysisindicatesthatadditionalmobilespectrumallocationsarenecessaryifU.S.wirelessnetworksaretobeabletosupplyenoughcapacitytomeetgrowingdemand.Itisinfeasibletoexpectnon-spectruminputstocoverthecapacitydeficit,evenusingconservativeinputsandunderthemostoptimisticscenarios.Withaggressiveinvestmentininfrastructureandreasonablyexpectedimprovementstospectralefficiency,weestimatethatinordertomeetdemandinfiveyearsindustrywillstillrequireapproximately400megahertzofspectruminthenext5years,andover1,400megahertzintenyears.Thisestimateisnormalizedtoexclusivelylicensed,wide-area,full-powerspectrum,withpropagationcharacteristicsof1-2GHz.Spectrumwithothercharacteristicswouldchangetheanalysis—forexample,ifspectrumwereonlymadeavailablewithlowerpowerlevels,muchmorewouldberequiredtomeetdemand.

9RogerEntner,“TheU.S.isHamstrungbySpectrumConstraints,”FierceWireless,April22,2022,FierceWireless,

/wireless/us-hamstrung-spectrum-constraints-entner

.

10RichardNClark,"ExpandingMobileWirelessCapacity:Thechallengespresentedbytechnologyandeconomics,"TelecommunicationsPolicy38(8-9)(September2014):693-708,pp.694-695,

/science/article/pii/S0308596113001900

(“ExpandingMobileWirelessCapacity”).Seealso,EricssonMobilityReport,November2022.

11Wenormalizedthesefigurestotheequivalenceoflowermid-bandspectrumlicensedforfullpower,flexiblemobileuse.

Continuedonnextpage

HowMuchLicensedSpectrumisNeededtoMeetFutureDemandsforNetworkCapacity?B|7

DemandforCapacity

Analyzinghistoricalgrowthinwirelesstrafficallowsustopredictfuturetrends.Weestimateboththegrowthintrafficaswellasitscompositionintermsofdifferentgenerationsofwirelesstechnologies,whichisimportantinanalyzingexpectedefficiencygainsovertime,aswellasthepotentialtrendsinnetworkoffloading.

GrowthinWirelessTraffic

Today,theubiquityofmobiledevices,increasingper-userdataconsumption,andmoredata-hungryapplicationshaveledtoanexplosionofmobiletrafficand,consequently,ademandforgreatercapacityofthemobilenetworkstoaccommodatesuchincreasesintraffic.AccordingtoEricsson,thegrowthinmobiledatatrafficpersmartphonecanbeattributedtothreemaindrivers:“improveddevicecapabilities,anincreaseindata-intensivecontentandgrowthindataconsumptionduetocontinuedimprovementsintheperformanceofdeployednetworks.”12InNorthAmerica,mobiledatademandisexpectedtoincreasesignificantly,drivenbynewservicessuchas“unlimiteddataplansandimproved5Gnetworkcoverageandcapacity”thatwillattractnew5Gsubscribers.13

ToprojectthedemandforcapacityontheU.S.macronetworkoffacilities-basedoperators,orthe“on-networktraffic,”weturntoCisco’sVisualNetworkingIndex(VNI)datatoreviewhistoricaldatademandandusethesetogroundourestimatesofmobiledatademandgoingforward.14TheVNIreportsprovideageographicbreakdownofInternetusers,mobileusers,

12SeeEricssonMobilityReport,November2022,p.22.Thispaperseekstoquantifythedeficitinlicensedspectrumfromthemobileperspective,notwithstandingtheexplosivegrowthoffixedwirelessaccessamonghomebroadbandsubscribers.Weexcludedemandforfixedwirelessforpresentpurposes,asweunderstandfixedwirelessservicescurrentlyrelyprimarilyonexcessmobilecapacity.Ultimately,however,thegrowingpopularityoffixedwirelessamongconsumerswillcausethespectrumdeficittolikewisegrow.

13SeeEricssonMobilityReport,November2022,p.22.

14Cisco,"CiscoVisualNetworkingIndex:GlobalMobileDataTrafficForecastUpdate,2017-2022,"WhitePaper,AppendixA,Table4,February2019,lastaccessedDecember18,2022,

/uploads/CiscoForecast.pdf

,(“CiscoVNI:GlobalMobileDataTrafficForecast

Update,2017-2022”).Seealso,Cisco,“CiscoAnnualInternetReport(2018–2023),”March9,2020,

/c/en/us/solutions/collateral/executive-perspectives/annual-internet-report/white-

paper-c11-741490.html

,(“CiscoAnnualInternetReport(2018–2023)”).Seealso,SourcesandNotesfor

Weareinterestedinunderstandinglong-termtrendsintrafficgrowth(2022–2032).However,theVNIdata

includesonlyfive-yearprojections.Forpredictingtrafficgrowthfrom2023–2032,weuseacombinationofa

projectedCAGRandaregressionanalysis.Weusethe2010-2022Ciscomobiletrafficdata,whichiscomprised

ofactualdatatrafficformingthebasisofeachreportfrom2010–2018,aswellasCisco’s2018forecastsfor

HowMuchLicensedSpectrumisNeededtoMeetFutureDemandsforNetworkCapacity?B|8

networkeddevices,speeds,andtrafficforactualandforecastedtrafficdatafrom2010–2022forNorthAmerica.15

Theblueandtealbarsin

Figure1

showthatNorthAmericantraffichasgrownfrom49petabytes

permonthin2010to1,804petabytesin2018andisprojectedtoreachover5,800petabytespermonthin2022.16TheEricssonnumbersareslightlyhigherataround6,000petabytesin2022.17Ourdataforecastsareshowningreenandyellowandtheyprojectaroughly2.5-foldincreaseinmobiletrafficinthenext5yearsandanalmostsix-foldincreaseinthenext10years.18

2019–2022NorthAmericatraffic,asourbaselinetrafficnumbers.Fortheyears2023–2028,weuse

Ericsson’spredicted2022–2028CAGR(23%)togenerateforecastedtraffic.Wethenusetheactualand

predictedtrafficdatafrom2010–2028asthedependentvariableinaregressionanalysis,predictingdata

trafficfor2029–2032basedonaquadratictimetrend,aCOVIDindicator,andthepreviousyear’spopulation

ascovariates.TheresultsarepresentedinTableA1.

TableA1.

NotethatwecouldhaveusedtheEricssontrafficforecasts,whichareingeneralhigherthantheCiscoforecasts,althoughthedataavailabilityforearlieryearsisbetterforCisco.However,tobeconservative,weusetheCiscoforecastsinthebasemodelfor2023,andthenusea23%CAGRfromtheEricssondataforecasts.Alsonote,thatthemobiletrafficforecastsbyCiscoandEricssonareforthemobiletrafficonthemacronetworkofwirelessoperators.Facilities-basedcarriersarethosewithanation-wideorregionalcellsiteinfrastructurethatuselicensedspectrum.

15SeeCiscoAnnualInternetReport(2018–2023).SeealsoCiscoVNI:GlobalMobileDataTrafficForecastUpdate,2017-2022.

16SeeFigure1.NotethatthetrafficforecastsareforNorthAmericawhichincludestheU.S.andCanada.WeusethisastheaggregateU.S.forecastsandtheCanadiandatatrafficisaverysmallfractionoftheNorthAmericantrafficvolume.

17EricssonMobilityReport,November2022,p.39.ThemonthlydatatrafficforNorthAmericaisreportedinEB/monthorexabytes/month.WehaveconvertedthesetoPB(petabytes)using1EB=1000PB.See

/data-storage/convert/exabytes-to-petabytes/

.

18Thedetailedmethodologyanddatasourcesaredescribedin

0

andtheregressionestimatesareshowninTable1.

HowMuchLicensedSpectrumisNeededtoMeetFutureDemandsforNetworkCapacity?B|9

FIGURE1:NORTHAMERICAWIRELESSDATADEMAND,2010-2032

SourcesandNotes:See,Appendix

Weareinterestedinunderstandinglong-termtrendsintrafficgrowth(2022–2032).However,theVNIdata

includesonlyfive-yearprojections.Forpredictingtrafficgrowthfrom2023–2032,weuseacombinationofa

projectedCAGRandaregressionanalysis.Weusethe2010-2022Ciscomobiletrafficdata,whichiscomprisedof

actualdatatrafficformingthebasisofeachreportfrom2010–2018,aswellasCisco’s2018forecastsfor2019–

2022NorthAmericatraffic,asourbaselinetrafficnumbers.Fortheyears2023–2028,weuseEricsson’s

predicted2022–2028CAGR(23%)togenerateforecastedtraffic.Wethenusetheactualandpredictedtraffic

datafrom2010–2028asthedependentvariableinaregressionanalysis,predictingdatatrafficfor2029–2032

basedonaquadratictimetrend,aCOVIDindicator,andthepreviousyear’spopulationascovariates.Theresults

arepresentedinTableA1.

TableA1.

Thisaggregatetrendmasksthechangingcompositionoftrafficonanetwork–thatis,itdoesnotshowhowthetrafficmovesbetweengenerationsofcellulartechnology,from2Gto3G,4G,5Gandbeyond.Astechnologyprogresses,trafficwilldeclineontheoldergenerationsoftechnology,throughconsumersupgradingtonewertechnologyandoperatorsshuttingdownoldergenerationnetworks,whiletrafficonthenewertechnologyincreases.Thenextsub-sectiondiscusseshowthetrafficcompositionhaschanged.

HowMuchLicensedSpectrumisNeededtoMeetFutureDemandsforNetworkCapacity?B|10

MobileTrafficComposition

Thechangingcompositionoftraffichasimplicationsforhowefficientlyanetworkisused,asdescribedlaterinSectionIII,andforunderstandingtherelationshipbetweentechnologyevolutionanddatademand.

WeusesubscriberdatafromtheEricssonMobilityVisualizertoanalyzehowdatatrafficpatternschangeasacellulartechnologymovesfromitsnascentformtomaturityandthento

obsolescence.19Thisdatasetliststhenumberofmobilesubscriptionsforeachtechnologygenerationthrough2028.20

Figure2

belowshowsthecompositionoftrafficovertheyears.From

Figure2

,weseethattheinflectionpointforLTEand5Galmostmirroreachother,withLTEdecliningfromitspeakand5Gsubscriptionsincreasingafter2019,and5Gsubscriptionsexpectedtobegreaterthan4Gsubscriptionsafter2023.21

19Ericsson,“EricssonMobilityVisualizer,”MobileSubscriptions,lastaccessedDecember9,2022,

/en/reports-and-papers/mobility-report/mobility-

visualizer?f=1&ft=2&r=2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9&t=1,2,3,4,5,6,7&s=4&u=1&y=2022,2028&c=3.

20EricssonreportsthefollowingtechnologycategoriesforNorthAmerica–CDMA,WCDMA/HSPA,GSM/EDGE,LTE,5GandOther.WeclassifyCDMAandGSM/EDGEunder3GandWCDMA/HSPAunder4G.The‘Other”categoryisclassifiedas2G.

21SeeFigure2.

HowMuchLicensedSpectrumisNeededtoMeetFutureDemandsforNetworkCapacity?B|11

FIGURE2:SUBSCRIBERCOUNTBYTECHNOLOGY

SourcesandNotes:Ericsson,“EricssonMobilityVisualizer,”lastaccessedDecember14,2022,

/en/reports-and-papers/mobility-report/mobility-

visualizer?f=1&ft=2&r=2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9&t=1,2,3,4,5,6,7&s=4&u=1&y=2021,2027&c=3.

Tocompletethedatacompositionpatternsfrom2022–2032,wegeneratepredictionsfor2029–2032,usingthehistoricaldata.Weconstructsubscribersharesbytechnology,andusethesetopredictsubscribersharesforLTEand5G,usingalineartimetrendtoprojectthetotalnumberoffuturesubscriptionsineachcategorythrough2032.22However,sinceweareprojectingforaperiod10yearsfromnow,wehavetofactorintheevolutionof6G.TheEricssondatadoesnotincludeany6Gsubscriptionpredictions.Therefore,weassumethat6Gsubscriptionswilllikelytakeofflaterandwepredictthe6Gtrendin2030–2032usinghistorical5Gcustomerpatterns.Thus,for6Gweapplythesameshareoftrafficthat5Gexperiencedwhenitwasinitsinfancy.Wethenapplythesesharesbytechnologytothetotalsubscriberstoobtainthenumberofcustomersbytechnology.Ourprojectionsshowthatfor2029–2032,LTEsubscriptionsarealmostzero,5Gsubscriptionshavereachedtheirpeak,and6Gstartsgainingmarketshare.

Next,wediscussanotherfactoraffectingdemandtrend–trafficoff-loading.23

22Weassumethat4G(HSPA)willbephasedoutby2024sothesubsequentyearshave0%trafficshare.Note,thatwerescalethesharesafterpredictiontoensurethatthesharesadduptoone.

23RashmiBharadwaj,“WhatisWi-FiOffload?AnOverview,”lastaccessedDecember20,2022,!

/what-is-wi-fi-offload-an-ov