全球风能大会-从发展中经济体的风力发电中获取经济机会2023（英）-2023.3

Report•March2023

Capturingeconomicopportunitiesfromwindpowerindevelopingeconomies

GWEC.NET

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Attribution

Capturingeconomicopportunitiesfromwindpowerindevelopingeconomies.GlobalWindEnergyCouncil.2023.

Authors

ThisreportwascommissionedbytheGlobalWindEnergyCouncilandauthoredbyBVGAssociates.TheleadauthorsofthisreportwereGeorgeHodgkinsonandPatrickBrowneofBVGAssociates.

Acknowledgments

ThisreportwaseditedbyReshmiLadwaandJoyceLeeoftheGlobalWindEnergyCouncil.

Wearegratefultothefollowingindividualsandorganisationsfortheirinputtothisreport:

•Argentina:CEA(CamaraEolicaArgentina)

•Colombia:SER(ColombiaAsociaciónenergíasrenovables)

•Egypt:InfinityPower

•Indonesia:UPCRenewables

•Morocco:SGRE

Imagecredits

2Capturinggreenrecoveryopportunitiesfromwindpowerindevelopingeconomies

Thiscomesatatimewhenwindenergyhasneverbeenmorepricecompetitive.

Therearereasonstobeoptimistichowever,asthepolicyenvironmentevolvestoenablethedevelopmentinbothemergedandemergingeconomies.Thisreportlooksatfivecountrieswhereastrongpolicyenvironmentcandeliverenormousbenefitsforthelocaleconomyaswellasdeliveringtangiblebenefitsforlocalcommunities.

Windenergydeliverswide-rangingbenefits,fromjobcreationstosavingwater.Thatmakeswindenergyparticularlybeneficialfordevelopingeconomiesaddressingthephaseoutoffossilfuelsalongsideeconomicgrowth,agrowingdemandforelectricityandthechallengeofenergysecurity.

Windprojectshaveshownasignificantcostreductioninestablishedmarketsoverthepasttwentyyears.Thisreportshowshowsupportfromgovernment,throughpolicycertaintyandgovernmentcommitment,canhelpnewindustriesavoidtheriskofhigherpotentialcosts.Windenergyalsohasthebenefitofbeing

predictable,astherearenofuelcostsonceinstalledsogovernmentscanbenefitfromthatstability.

Thisreportlooksatfivecountries–Argentina,Colombia,Egypt,Indonesia,andMorocco–thathavesignificantandlargelyuntappedwindresourcepotential.Thereportaimstodemonstratethehugesocioeconomicbenefitsthatwindenergydevelopmentcandeliveralongsidethepositiveenvironmentaloutcomes.Thisreportidentifiesthreecommonhurdlesforpolicymakerstryingtoacceleratethedeploymentofwindenergyandoutlineshowtoovercomethosechallenges.

Thewindindustryhasdemonstrateditspivotalroleinsupportingthrivinglocaleconomiesthroughskilledjobscreationandthemaintainingofcriticalinfrastructurewhiledramaticallycontributingtoreducingcarbonemissionsanddeliveringclean,affordableandsecureenergy.GWECwillcontinuetocollaboratewithgovernmentstoensurethattheworldiswellequippedtoharnessthefullsocioeconomicbenefitsoftheenergytransition.

Foreword

Thewindowofopportunitytoacceleratewindenergyforamoreresilientandsustainablefutureisclosingfast.Wenowlessthansevenyearsfrom2030,akeymomentontheenergytransitionjourney.Threeyearsago,aswidespreadlockdownscausedadramaticreductionincarbonemissions,thewindindustryjoinedclimatescientistsandconcernedcivilsocietygroupstowarngovernmentsthatwithoutdecisiveactiontophaseoutfossilfuels,emissionswouldquicklyreboundtopre-pandemiclevels.

Postpandemic,inFebruary2022theRussianinvasionofUkraineaddedanotherlayertotheenergychallenge,forcingenergysecuritytothefrontofpolicymakers’minds.Thetwincrisesofclimatechangeandenergysecuritywerenowjoinedtogetherbytheirsharedsolution.

Asweenter2023,weareseeingcoalpoweredgenerationreachingarecordpeak,naturalgaspricesatall-time

highsand—aspredicted—emissionsreboundingalongsideeconomicrecovery.

GWEC.NET

3

Contents

1.Introduction13

2.Generalbarrierstowindenergydeployment15

Countrystudy:

Argentina

Currentsituation

Casestudy-PEPEIII

windproject

Recommendationsfor

windaccelerationProjectpipelinescenariosImpactsanalysis

Countrystudy:

20Colombia

20Currentsituation

Casestudy–LaGuajira

24windfarm

Recommendationsfor

25windacceleration

25Projectpipelinescenarios

27Impactsanalysis

Countrystudy:

30Egypt

30Currentsituation

Casestudy–WestBakr

34WindFarm

Recommendationsfor

35windacceleration

36Projectpipelinescenarios

37Impactsanalysis

Countrystudy:

40Indonesia

40CurrentsituationCasestudy–Sidrap

43WindFarm

Recommendationsfor

44windacceleration

44Projectpipelinescenarios

46Impactsanalysis

50

50

54

55

55

56

Countrystudy:

Morocco

Casestudy–Midelt

windproject

Recommendationsfor

windaccelerationProjectpipelinescenariosImpactsanalysis

60

63

64

64

65

Conclusion70

GWEC.NET5

Listoffigures

Figure1Countriesexaminedinthisstudy.

Figure2Argentinaelectricityenergymixbysource.

Figure3ForecastofinstalledcapacityinArgentinainthetwoscenarios.

Figure4FTEyearscreatedinthebusiness-as-usualscenarioinArgentina.

Figure5FTEyearscreatedinthewindaccelerationscenarioinArgentina.

Figure6Grossvalueaddedcreatedinthebusiness-as-usualscenarioinArgentina.Figure7GrossvalueaddedcreatedinthewindaccelerationscenarioinArgentina.Figure8Colombiaelectricityenergymixbysource.

Figure9ForecastofinstalledcapacityinColombiainthetwoscenarios.

Figure10FTEyearscreatedinthebusiness-as-usualscenarioinColombia.

Figure11FTEyearscreatedinthewindaccelerationscenarioinColombia.

Figure12Grossvalueaddedcreatedinthebusiness-as-usualscenarioinColombia.Figure13GrossvalueaddedcreatedinthewindaccelerationscenarioinColombia.Figure14Egyptelectricityenergymixbysource.

Figure15ForecastofinstalledcapacityinEgyptinthetwoscenarios.

Figure16FTEyearscreatedinthebusiness-as-usualscenarioinEgypt.

Figure17FTEyearscreatedinthewindaccelerationscenarioinEgypt.

Figure18Grossvalueaddedcreatedinthebusiness-as-usualscenarioinEgypt.Figure19GrossvalueaddedcreatedinthewindaccelerationscenarioinEgypt.Figure20Indonesiaelectricityenergymixbysource.

Figure21ForecastofinstalledcapacityinIndonesiainthetwoscenarios.

Figure22FTEyearscreatedinthebusiness-as-usualscenarioinIndonesia.

6

17

21

26

27

27

28

28

31

36

37

37

38

38

41

45

46

47

47

48

51

55

56

Capturinggreenrecoveryopportunitiesfromwindpowerindevelopingeconomies

Figure23FTEyearscreatedinthewindaccelerationscenarioinIndonesia.56

Figure24Grossvalueaddedcreatedinthebusiness-as-usualscenarioinIndonesia.57

Figure25GrossvalueaddedcreatedinthewindaccelerationscenarioinIndonesia.57

Figure26Morocco’selectricityenergymixbysource.61

Figure27ForecastofinstalledcapacityinMoroccointhetwoscenarios.65

Figure28FTEyearscreatedinthebusiness-as-usualscenarioinMorocco.67

Figure29FTEyearscreatedinthewindaccelerationscenarioinMorocco.67

Figure30Grossvalueaddedcreatedinthebusiness-as-usualscenarioinMorocco.67

Figure31GrossvalueaddedcreatedinthewindaccelerationscenarioinMorocco.67

ListofTables

Table1Summaryofwindgrowthimpactsinbusiness-as-usualscenarioversuswindaccelerationscenariofor2023-202712

Table2Argentinatargets.21

Table3ForecastofinstalledcapacityinArgentinainthetwoscenarios.26

Table4Colombiatargets.31

Table5ForecastofinstalledcapacityinColombiainthetwoscenarios.36

Table6Egypttargets.41

Table7ForecastofinstalledcapacityinEgyptinthetwoscenarios.45

Table8Indonesiatargets.51

Table9ForecastofinstalledcapacityinIndonesiainthetwoscenarios.55

Table10Moroccotargets.61

Table11ForecastofinstalledcapacityinMoroccointhetwoscenarios.65

GWEC.NET7

Glossary

ABEEólicaANEELBAUBNDES

COP26

2

COe

CPPAEPEESKOMEVOSSFTEGDPGHG

GRS

AssociaçãoBrasileiradeEnergiaEólica

NationalElectricEnergyAgency(Brazil)

Businessasusual

NationalBankforEconomicandSocialDevelopment(Brazil)

26thConferenceoftheParties

Carbondioxideequivalent

Corporatepowerpurchaseagreement

EnergyResearchOffice(Brazil)

ElectricitySupplyCommission(SouthAfrica)

Energyvirtualonestopshop

Fulltimeequivalent

Grossdomesticproduct

Greenhousegases

Greenrecoveryscenario

GVA

GWEC

IEA

IPP

IRENA

MME

NDC

NERSA

PDE

PPA

PROINFA

SAWEA

UNFCCC

Grossvalueadded

GlobalWindEnergyCouncil

InternationalEnergyAgency

Independentpowerproducer

InternationalRenewableEnergyAgency

MinistryofMinesandEnergy(Brazil)

Nationallydeterminedcontribution

NationalEnergyRegulatorofSouthAfrica

Ten-YearEnergyExpansionPlan(Brazil)

Powerpurchaseagreement

IncentiveProgramforAlternativeSourcesofElectricEnergy(Brazil)

SouthAfricanWindEnergyAssociation

UnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange

8Capturinggreenrecoveryopportunitiesfromwindpowerindevelopingeconomies

EXECUTIVESUMMARY

GWEC.NET9

Thereisagrowingmismatchbetweenenergytransition

ambitions,netzerotargetsandmarketrealities,however.

Accelerateddeploymentofrenewableenergy,and

particularlylarge-scalesourcesofcleanpowerlikewind

andsolarenergy,areneededworldwidetolimitthemost

harmfulimpactsofclimatechange.

Toreachoursharedglobalgoaloflimitingtemperaturerisebytheendofthecenturyto1.5°C,thevolumeofannualwindenergyinstallationsmustscaleuproughlyfourtimesoverthenextdecade.Thisisahugechallengewhichwillrequiresharedvisionandcollaborationbetweengovernments,industry,andsociety.Giventheurgencyoftheenergytransition,itisvitalthatthedeploymentofwindenergydoesnotfaceunnecessarydelaysduetoresolvablechallenges,suchasbureaucraticpermittingproceduresandmarketbarrierstoinvestment.

Theresourcesandcoordinationrequiredforthisscaleofactionhavebeenstretchedoverthelastfewyears,duetotheCOVID-19pandemicandrecentcommoditypriceincreases.Thischallengeisparticularlyacuteindevelopingeconomies,wherepublicspendingandpolicyresponsehavefocusedonshort-termprotectionsofsocietyandeconomy.Ascountrieslearntomanagethedifficultiesofthepandemicandeconomicactivityreturns,itistimetoundertaketheactionswhichwillbenefitsocietyandeconomyinthelongterm.

Windenergycanplayavitalroleinimprovingacountry’senergy

Anincreasingnumberofcountries

arerecognisingthekeyroleof

windenergyinsupportingaglobal

cleanenergytransition,inenergy

security,andachievingstableenergy

prices.Theurgencytoscaleup

cleanpowergenerationandshift

awayfromunabatedcoalpower

werekeyelementsoftheGlasgow

ClimatePact,endorsedatCOP26

summitinNovember2021bythe

nearly200countriessignedup

totheParisAgreement.Thiswas

furthercementedattheCOP27

summitinSharmEl-Sheikh,heldin

November2022.Renewableenergy

isacomponentoftheNationally

DeterminedContributions(NDCs)

formostofthePartiestotheParis

Agreement,andmorethan100

Partieshaveaquantifiedcleanpower

targetwithintheirNDCs.

10Capturinggreenrecoveryopportunitiesfromwindpowerindevelopingeconomies

securityandincreasingitsenergyindependence.ThishasbeenhighlightedbyRussia’sinvasionofUkraineinFebruary2022,followingwhichmanycountrieshaveexaminedtheirownbalancebetweenenergyimportsandexports.Countriesreliantonfossilfuelimportsarevulnerabletosuddenchangesintradeagreementsandvolatileinternationalpricingmarkets.Windenergyoffersasecure,reliableandaffordablelongtermsourceofcleanpowergeneration.Windenergyalsoprovidesaboosttoeconomicactivity.Windenergyprojectsgeneratesignificantamountsofcapitalexpenditureandcreatejobsandothereconomicbenefitsforlocaleconomiesthroughtheirconstructionandoperation.

Theopportunitiesindevelopingeconomies

Thereisagrowingbodyofevidencewhichshowsthatwindenergycanhelpgovernmentsaccelerateagreeneconomicgrowth,andformabedrockforsustainableeconomicgrowthinthefuture.Thebenefitsofwindenergyarewide-rangingandexpandbeyondcleanpowergeneration.Theyincludesustainablejobcreation,publichealthcost

savingswhichwouldbespentredressingtheimpactsoffossilfuelgeneration,waterconsumptionsavingswhichwouldotherwisebeusedforthermalgeneration,andasignificantcapitalinjectioninalocalvaluechain.Thesectorisparticularlyattractivefordevelopingeconomieswhichneedtophaseoutfossilfuelswhilemaintainingeconomicgrowth,meetingfast-growingelectricitydemand,safeguardingenergysecurityandprices.

Todecarbonisepower,transportandheatingisexpectedtosignificantlyincreaseelectricitydemand.Forexample,theUKhaslegallycommittedtoachievenet-zeroin2050anditisexpectedtohaveaboutthesameenduserdemandthenasithasnow.Toachievenet-zeroitwillrequire3timesasmuchenergysuppliedintheformofelectricitythanitisnow.Almostallwindprojectsinstalledbetween2023to2027willstillbegeneratingin2050andcontributingtoachievingnet-zero.

Windenergyhasachievedsignificantcostreductionandtechnologicalexcellenceoverthepasttwodecades,establishingitasaprovenandmarket-readyalternativetofossilfuels.Whilecostsmightinitiallybe

higherindevelopingeconomieswherethewindindustryisnew–duetofactorssuchaslessexperiencedpersonnel,start-upcosts,initialinvestmentuncertaintyandlackofestablishedsupplychain–thesecostscanquicklyreducewithgovernmentcommitment,policycertaintyandmarketforces.Windenergyhasnofuelcostssoonceinstalleditscostsremainstableandpredictable.

Thisreportreflectsastudyofwindenergypotentialindevelopingeconomiesaroundtheworldoverthenextfiveyears,2023-2027,withtheaimtohighlightthevastandlargelyunexploitedsocioeconomicandenvironmentalopportunitiesattachedtowindenergy.Accelerateddeploymentofwindprojectswillnotonlysupportclimateaction,buthelpcountriestorealisearangeofbenefitsfromjobcreationtocleanerair.Thestudyidentifiesthreecommonbarriersfacingwindenergydeploymentindevelopingeconomiesandprovidesrecommendationsonhowthesebarrierscanbeovercome.

Fivedevelopingeconomiesinparticularwereselectedascountrystudies:Argentina,Colombia,Egypt,Indonesia,andMorocco.Thesewereselectedbecausetheyhave

significantandstilllargelyuntapped

windenergyresource.

Findingsofthestudy:upsidesof

acceleratedwinddeploymentina

windaccelerationscenario

Thefindingsofthisstudy,

summarisedin

Table1

below,show

thatawindaccelerationscenario

ofwinddeploymentfrom2023-

2027wouldrealisetremendous

socioeconomicbenefitsforeach

country.Fordevelopingeconomies

facingthedifficultbalanceofensuring

economicgrowthwhilemaintaining

energysecurityandresilience,

investmentinthewindsectoroffersa

pathwaytoarobustandsustainable

recovery.

GWEC.NET11

Table1Summaryofwindgrowthimpactsinbusiness-as-usualscenarioversuswindaccelerationscenariofor2023-2027.

Country

2023-2027

Newwindinstallations(MW)

FTEjobscreatedoverwindfarmlifetimes(jobs)

Grossvalueaddedtoeconomyoverwindfarmlifetimes($)

Homespoweredbycleanenergyannuallyfrom2027(homes)

Tonsofcarbonemissionssavedoverwindfarmlifetimes(tons)

Litresofwatersavedannuallyfrom2027(litres)

Argentina

BAU

1,500

112,000

3.3billion

1.7million

71million

12million

Wind

Acceleration

1,965

176,000

4.7billion

2.2million

93million

16million

PotentialUpside

465

64,000

1billion

0.5million

21million

4million

%increase

31%

57%

45%

30%

30%

31%

Colombia

BAU

2,700

191,000

4.9billion

5.5million

233million

15.5million

Wind

Acceleration

3,900

339,000

8.1billion

7.8million

336million

22.5million

PotentialUpside

1,200

148,000

3billion

2.3million

103million

7million

%increase

44%

77%

65%

43%

44%

44%

Egypt

BAU

2,602

242,000

3.5billion

6.5million

225million

21million

Wind

Acceleration

3,758

406,000

5.6billion

9.2million

326million

31million

PotentialUpside

1,158

164,000

2.1billion

2.8million

101million

10million

%increase

45%

68%

60%

43%

45%

45%

Indonesia

BAU

450

34,000

1.2billion

1million

23million

2.6million

Wind

Acceleration

565

51,000

1.6billion

1.2million

29million

3.2million

PotentialUpside

115

17,000

400million

0.2million

6million

0.7million

%increase

26%

50%

36%

24%

26%

26%

Morocco

BAU

1,500

99,000

2.1billion

4.7million

77million

8.6million

Wind

Acceleration

2,138

174,000

3.4billion

6.6million

110million

12.3million

PotentialUpside

638

75,000

1.3billion

1.9million

12.3million

3.7million

%increase

43%

76%

63%

40%

42%

43%

12Capturinggreenrecoveryopportunitiesfromwindpowerindevelopingeconomies

Whilethisreportincludesonlyfivecountrystudies,similarsocioeconomicbenefitscanbeachievedbyothercountries.Apreviousreportinearly2022studiedthisforBrazil,India,Mexico,SouthAfricaandThePhilippines,publishedbyGWECinFebruary2022.Thestudyanalysedinternationalexperienceoftheonshorewindindustryandfoundthattypicallya1GW/yearinstallationrateover5yearscouldunlocknearly157,000newjobsand$13.8billiongrossvalueadded(GVA)tonationaleconomiesoverwindfarms’lifetime,amongotherbenefits.

Recommendationstosupportwindgrowthindevelopingeconomies

Inthecourseofthestudyandconversationswithindustryandinvestmentexpertsaroundtheworld(seetheMethodologyinAppendixA),severalbarrierstowindenergydeploymentwereidentifiedthatarecommontodevelopingeconomies.Themostsignificantcommonbarriersarealackofclearpolicycommitment,insufficienttransmissionsysteminfrastructure,limitedinvestmentingridupgradeandexpansion,andcomplexregulatoryframeworks.

Addressingthesebarriersproactively,incoordinationwiththewindenergyindustryandotherrelevantstakeholders,cansupportaccelerateddeploymentofwindenergyandawindaccelerationindevelopingeconomies.

Policycommitment:provideclarityandambitionforwindenergy

Lackofpolicycommitmenttoconsistentlypromoteandenablewindenergyisabarriertowindenergydeploymentcommontomanydevelopingeconomies.Inmanycountries,governmentsremaincommittedtoconventionalfossilfuel-basedelectricitygeneration,particularlyifitisagoodsourceofforeigninvestment.

Evenincountrieswherethegovernmentispositivetowardsrenewableenergy,therecanbealackofenablingpolicyframeworksandregulationtoadequatelysupportinvestmentinwindenergyandotherrenewables.

Investtoexpandtransmissionsysteminfrastructure

Windenergyprojectsrelyonlandavailability,windresource,andgridconnectionpoints.Thismeansthatprojectscan’talwaysbedevelopedinareaswherethegridiswelldeveloped.Thisisparticularlyanissueformulti-islandnationslikeIndonesia,inwhichthecountry’sbestwindresourcescanbefoundonsparselypopulatedislands.

Inmanycountries,developmentoftransmissionsysteminfrastructureiscoordinatedbyaseparateorganisationtothatforthedevelopmentandplanningforelectricitygeneration.Inothercountriesthegovernanceofthetransmissionsystemandgenerationissplitintoregions.Thisfragmentationcanleadtothetransmissionsystemnotbeingefficientlydevelopedintheoptimalareasoratthenecessarytimeforconnectingwindenergyprojects,whichcandelaythedeploymentofnewcapacity,raiseinvestmentriskandhampereffortstomeettargets.

Greaterpublicandprivateinvestmentinsecure,smartandflexiblegridswhichenableever-largersharesofrenewableenergyisnecessaryto

meettheurgentpaceoftheenergy

transition.

Simplifypermitting

frameworksforrenewable

energy

Toomanycountriesareunableto

leveragetheenormousinterestfrom

investorstodeploywindenergy

projectsduetoinefficientpermitting

schemes.Frameworksforleasing,

permitting,andpowerprocurement

canbeoverlycomplexand

bureaucratic,whichcandelaywind

energydeploymentifprojectscannot

obtainthenecessarypermitsand

approvalsinasensibletimeframe.

Theseprocessescancoverspatial

planning,environmentalandsocial

impactassessment,planning

authorisation,gridconnection,and

legalchallengestoprojectproposals.

Inmanycountries,developersmust

submitdocumentsandapplicationsto

multiplenationalandlocalagencies.

Alackofclarityonprocedure