2016-2045年新兴科技趋势

EmergingScienceandTechnologyTrends:2016-2045ASynthesisofLeadingForecastsOfficeoftheDeputyAssistantSecretaryoftheArmy(Research&Technology)APRIL2016ThisreportwaspreparedfortheDeputyAssistantSecretaryoftheArmy(Research&Technology)byFutureScout,LLC,astrategyandanalyticsfirmspecializinginhelpingorganizationsunderstandemergingtrendsandhowtopreparestrategicallytothriveinthefaceofanuncertainfuture.Questionsregardingthepreparationofthisreportmaybedirectedto:Dr.JasonAugustynPresident,FutureScoutLLC(571)730-0992jason@ThisreportwaspreparedasanaccountofworksponsoredbytheUnitedStatesArmy.NeithertheUnitedStatesArmynoranycomponentthereof,noranyofitscontractorsorsubcontractorsmakesanywarrantyfortheaccuracy,completeness,oranythirdparty’suseoftheinformationcontainedherein.Referencehereintoanyspecificcommercialproduct,process,orservicebytradename,trademark,manufacturer,orotherwise,doesnotnecessarilyconstituteorimplyitsendorsement,recommendation,orfavoringbytheUnitedStatesArmyoranycomponentthereoforitscontractorsorsubcontractors.TheviewsandopinionsofauthorsexpressedhereindonotnecessarilystateorreflectofficialviewsorpoliciesoftheUnitedStatesArmy.DISCLAIMERTABLEOFCONTENTSODASA(R&T)|EmergingS&TTrends:2016-2045EXECUTIVESUMMARY1BACKGROUND2EMERGINGS&TTRENDS3CROSS-CUTTINGTHEMES9CONCLUSION12APPENDIXA:BIBLIOGRAPHY14APPENDIXB:ANALYSISMETHODS16TRENDCARDS18Thisisthethirdannualreportonemergingtrendsinscienceandtechnology(S&T)publishedbytheDeputyAssistantSecretaryoftheArmyforResearchandTechnology(DASAR&T).Asinprioryears,thereporthastwoprimaryobjectives.First,itisintendedtoinformleadersacrosstheU.S.Armyandstakeholdersinthejoint,interagency,andinternationalcommunityaboutS&Ttrendsthatarelikelytoinfluencethefutureoperatingenvironmentandshapewarfightingcapabilitiesoverthenext30years.Second,itisintendedtosparkstrategicdialoguearoundthekindofS&TinvestmentstheArmyshouldmaketoensurethatourSoldiersmaintainovermatchinfutureoperations.This2016versionoftheS&TStrategicTrendsreportsynthesizes32S&TforecaststhathavebeenpublishedoverthepastfiveyearsbygovernmentagenciesintheU.S.andabroad,industryleaders,internationalinstitutions,andthinktanks.TheobjectivewastoidentifytrendsthataremostlikelytogeneraterevolutionaryordisruptivechangeofinteresttotheArmyoverthenext30years.Byconsolidatingmultipletrendanalysesintoasinglereferencedocument,thisreportaimstoprovideareadyreferenceforArmyleadershipasitconsiderstheimportantroleS&TwillplayinshapingthefutureofourArmy.Analysisofthesourcedocumentsproduced690individualtrendsrelatedtoscienceandtechnology,aswellastrendsrelatedtobroadercontextualfactorsthatwillshapetheevolutionofS&Toverthecomingdecades.Fromthisdataset,24emergingscienceandtechnologytrendswereidentified:ODASA(R&T)|EmergingS&TTrends:2016-20451InadditiontotheseemergingS&Ttrends,thisreportdiscussessixbroadcontextualforcesthatarelikelytoshapetheevolutionofscienceandtechnologyoverthenext30years:urbanization,climatechange,resourceconstraints,shiftingdemographics,theglobalizationofinnovation,andtheriseofaglobalmiddleclass.AswithpreviouseditionsoftheS&TStrategicTrendsreport,asetof“trendcards”areincludedinthisreport.ThesecardsprovideadditionaldetailontheS&Ttrends,includingasynopsisofeachtrend,alongwithsummariesofenablingS&Tdomains,recentdevelopmentsthatsignalhoweachtrendmightevolve,andahigh-levelconsiderationoftheimpactseachtrendmighthaveonsociety,politics,economics,theenvironment,anddefense.ThesetrendcardsprovideaconvenientreferencefortrendsthathavethemostpotentialforinfluencingArmycapabilitiesandthefutureoperatingenvironment.Scienceandtechnologyarepartofasystemofdrivingforcesthatwillchangemanyaspectsoftheworldoverthenext30years.Whileitisimpossibletoaccuratelypredictthefutureindetail,thetrendsdiscussedinthisreportwillinfluencethecourseofglobalchangewithramificationsfortheU.S.Army.TheintentbehindtheanalysispresentedhereistoinformArmyleadershipaboutwherethefuturemightbeheaded,andbydoingso,supportstrategicthinkingabouthowbesttopreparetheforcefortheroadahead.PointofContactQuestionsregardingthisreportshouldbedirectedto:AaronChan(Acting)Director,TechnologyWargamingandManufacturingOfficeoftheDeputyAssistantSecretaryoftheArmy(Research&Technology)ASA(ALT)SAAL-ZT703-697-0427aaron.m.chan2.civ@EXECUTIVESUMMARYRoboticsandautonomoussystemsAdditivemanufacturingAnalyticsHumanaugmentationMobileandcloudcomputingMedicaladvancesCyberEnergySmartcitiesInternetofthingsFoodandwatertechnologyQuantumcomputingSocialempowermentAdvanceddigitalBlendedrealityTechnologyforclimatechangeAdvancedmaterialsNovelweaponrySpaceSyntheticbiologyChangingnatureofworkPrivacyEducationTransportationandlogistics1.Mahnken,T.G.(2010).TechnologyandtheAmericanWayofWarSince1945.NY:ColumbiaUniversityPress.ODASA(R&T)|EmergingS&TTrends:2016-20452Thisisthethirdannualreportonemergingtrendsinscienceandtechnology(S&T)publishedbytheDeputyAssistantSecretaryoftheArmyforResearchandTechnology(DASAR&T).Asinprioryears,thereporthastwoprimaryobjectives.First,itisintendedtoinformleadersacrosstheU.S.Armyandstakeholdersinthejoint,interagency,andinternationalcommunityaboutS&TtrendsthatarelikelytoinfluencethefutureoperatingenvironmentandshapeArmycapabilitiesoverthenext30years.Second,itisintendedtosparkstrategicdialoguearoundthekindofS&TinvestmentstheArmyshouldmaketoensurethatourSoldiersmaintainovermatchinfutureoperations.ThisreportispartoftheDASAR&T’sbroaderTechnologyWargamingprogram,whichseekstoprovidestrategicforesightresearchandanalysisinsupportofbothS&TinvestmentplanningandUnifiedQuest,theArmy’sannualfuturestudyprogramsponsoredbytheChiefofStaffandconductedbytheArmyCapabilitiesIntegrationCenter(ARCIC).Westandonthecuspoftechnologicalrevolutionsonmultiplefronts,infieldsasdiverseasroboticsandsyntheticbiology.TechnologyhasbeencentraltotheAmericanwayofwarthroughoutthenation’shistory,1anditissafetoassumethatscientificandtechnologicaladvancementswillremainanimportantfoundationforU.S.Armycapabilitiesoverthenext30yearsandbeyond.Atthesametime,theglobaleconomicandpoliticallandscapeisundergoingthemostprofoundrealignmentsincethefalloftheSovietUnion.TheUnitedStatesmilitaryhaslongreliedonanoverwhelmingadvantageinresearch,development,andinnovationthatisunlikelytopersistmuchlonger.AsChina,Russia,andothernationsmodernizetheirmilitariesthroughinvestmentsinscienceandtechnology,itwillbecomeessentialfortheU.S.ArmytomakethemosteffectiveuseofS&Tinvestmentstostayaheadofemergingthreats.Effectiveinvestmentstrategiesstartwithanunderstandingofemergingtrends.Therefore,theaimofthiseditionoftheS&TStrategicTrendsreportistoidentifythemajortrendsinscienceandtechnologythatarelikelytoinfluenceArmycapabilitiesandthefutureoperatingenvironmentoverthenext30years.TheapproachtowardidentifyingthesetrendsinvolvedacomprehensivereviewandsynthesisofopensourceforecastspublishedbygovernmentagenciesintheU.S.andabroad,industryanalysts,thinktanks,andacademicorganizations.TheseinstitutionsarealsograpplingwiththeinfluenceofS&Tonsocial,political,economic,environmental,anddefense-relatedissues,andananalysisofthedocumentstheyproducerevealsanumberofcommonthemes.RatherthanduplicatingthenumerousS&T-relatedforecastsconductedbytheU.S.NationalIntelligenceCouncil,U.K.MinistryofDefense,theMcKinseyGlobalInstitute,andothermajororganizations,thisreportseekstoleveragetheircollectiveinsightstoidentifytrendsthatwillimpacttheU.S.Army.Inthatvein,acomprehensiveliteraturesearchwasconductedtoidentifytrendforecastspublishedbyforeignanddomesticgovernmentagencies,industryanalysts,academicorganizations,andthinktanks.Atotalof32reportswereselectedbasedonthefollowingcriteria:Allofthereportshadtobetheproductofrigorousandwell-documentedresearchconductedbyreputableorganizationswithatrackrecordofproducinghigh-qualitytrendanalysis.Allofthereportshadtohavebeenpublishedwithinthepast5years.AllofthereportshadtoaddressscienceandtechnologytrendsthatcouldinfluenceArmyoperationsandthefutureoperatingenvironmentoverthenext30years.Allofthereportshadtoaddressawiderangeofscienceandtechnologytrends.Narrowforecastsrelatedtohighlyspecificindustriesortechnologydomainswerenotincludedinthisanalysis.AppendixAprovidesacompletebibliographyofthesourcesthatwereusedtoconductthissynthesisofemergingscienceandtechnologytrends.Overall,9sourceswerecarriedoverfromthe2015EmergingTrendsreport,while23newsourceswereadded.Acontentanalysisofthesedocuments(describedinAppendixB)identified690specifictrendsrelatedtoscienceandtechnologyaswellassocietal,economic,environmental,andpoliticaltrendsthatarelikelytoshapethecontextinwhichscientificandtechnologicaldevelopmentswilloccur.Furtheranalysisofthetrenddatarevealed24commonscienceandtechnology“mega-trends”thathavethepotentialtoshapefutureArmyoperationsandthefutureoperatingenvironment.Theanalysisalsoidentifiedsixcross-cuttingcontextualtrendsthatwillinfluencehowscienceandtechnologycouldevolve.DetailsontheanalysismethodologyarepresentedinAppendixB.Theremainderofthisreportisdividedintotwoprimarysections.Thefirstsectionreviewsthescienceandtechnologytrendsthatwereidentifiedthroughthesynthesisofopensourceforecasts.Aswiththe2015Trendsreport,asetof“trendcards”hasbeenpreparedthatsummarizeseachofthesetrends.Thecards,whichareappendedtotheendofthisreport,provideabriefsynopsisofeachtrend,reviewkeyscientificandtechnicalenablersofthetrend,highlightrecentdevelopmentsthatsignalhoweachtrendmightevolveoverthecomingdecades,andreviewsomeoftheimpactsthateachtrendmighthaveonsociety,politics,theeconomy,theenvironment,andnationaldefense.Thesecondsectionofthereportreviewssixcontextualtrendsthatappearedascommonthemesinmanyofthesourcedocuments.ThesetrendsspeaktobroaderundercurrentsthatwillshapethenexusamongS&T,sociopoliticalchange,andnationalsecuritythrough2045.BACKGROUNDAnanalysisofthesourcereportsidentified20coreS&Ttrendsthatwillinfluencetheworldoverthenext30years:RoboticsandAutonomousSystemsBy2045,robotsandautonomoussystemsarelikelytobecommonplace.Autonomousvehicleswillmaketransportationsaferandmoreefficient,whilepossiblyfuelingtheriseofthesharingeconomy.Robotswillcarefortheelderly,delivergroceries,harvestcrops,maintainpublicinfrastructure,andprovidemanyotherservicesthattoucheverydaylife.Intelligentsoftwareagents,or“bots”,willextractinsightsfromterabytesofdata,automatebusinessprocesses,andstepintocustomerservice,teaching,andotherrolestraditionallyseenas“people-centric”.However,theriseofautonomoussystemscoulddisplacehundredsofmillionsoflaborandserviceworkers,creatingeconomicinstabilityandtheriskofsocialunrest.Networkedautonomoussystemswillalsobecomeanattractivetargetforadversariesandanewpriorityforcyberdefense.Theuseofrobotsinmilitaryoperationswillexpandasroboticsystemsgainmobility,dexterity,andintelligence,makingrobotseffectivepartnersonfuturebattlefields.Atthesametime,adversarieswilluserobotsandautonomoussystemsinwaysthatchallengeusethicallyandtactically.AdditiveManufacturingAdditivemanufacturing(3Dprinting)hasbeenusedinindustryforover30years,mostlyasatoolforlimited-runprototyping.However,therehasbeenremarkableinnovationin3Dprintingtechnologyoverthepasttenyears.Pricesfor3Dprintersarefalling,andtheavailabilityofopensourcetoolsand3DmodelsfromonlinemarketplaceslikeThingiversehasfosteredthegrowthofavibrantcommunityofhobbyist“makers”whoarepushingtheboundariesofwhatthistechnologycando.By2040,3Dprinterswillbeabletoprintobjectsthatincorporatemultiplematerials,electronics,batteries,andothercomponents.Peoplewillbeabletoprinttools,electronics,replacementparts,medicaldevices,andotherproductsondemand,customizedtotheirwantsandneeds.Militarylogisticswilllikelybecomestreamlined,asequipmentandsupplieswillbeprinteddirectlyattheirpointofuse.Objectswillbecomeinformation,anddigitalpiracywillreplaceshoplifting.Terroristsandcriminalorganizationswillprintweapons,sensors,andotherequipmentusingrawmaterialsthatwillbealmostimpossibletotrack.AnalyticsIn2015,theworldgenerated4.4zetabytesofdata(4.4trilliongigabytes),andthisfigureisexpectedtoroughlydoubleeverytwoyears.Thisfloodofdataholdsdeepinsightsintoconsumerbehavior,publichealth,climatechange,andarangeofothereconomic,social,andpoliticalchallenges.However,while“BigData”hasbecomeabuzzword,lessthan10%ofdatageneratedeachyearevergetsanalyzed.Overthenext30yearsourabilitytomakebetteruseofmassive,dynamicdatasetswillimprove.Automatedbotswillcrawlunstructureddata,identifyingrelationshipsthatarevisualizedinimmersivevirtualdatascapes.Analyticswillspreadbeyondtheenterprise,aspeoplegaintheabilitytoapplybigdatatotheirpersonallives.Citizenswillhavetheabilitytousedatatoholdgovernmentsandothermajorinstitutionsaccountable,leadingtotensionsoverdataaccess.Theriseofhyper-personalizedmarketing,governmentsurveillanceofcitizens’datatrails,andhighprofilecasesofdatalosscouldfuelgrowingconcernsoverdataownership.Potentialadversarieswillusedatathatisstolen,purchasedoffdarknetworks,oraccessedfreelyfromopensourcestocompromisesecurityandchallengeU.S.defensecapabilities.HumanAugmentationOverthenext30years,technologywillallowustotranscendbiologicallimitsonhumanpotential.WearabledevicesconnectedthroughtheInternetofThingswilldelivercontext-sensitiveinformationoverlaiddirectlyontooursenses.Exoskeletonsandbrain-interfacedprostheticswillmakeusstrongerandrestoremobilitytotheelderlyandinfirm.Sensorsandcomputersembeddedincontactlensesandpermanentimplantswillletushearwhispersbehindwalls,giveusnaturalnightvision,andallowustoimmerseourselvesinvirtualandaugmentedrealities.Nootropicdrugswillexpandourcognitiveabilitiesandtransformworkandeducation.Ofcourse,augmentationtechnologywillcomeataprice,andthosewhocannotaffordtoupgradetheir“humanchassis”mightfindthemselvesunabletocompeteintheaugmentedeconomy.Networkedaugmentationswillalsobeanappealingtargetforhackerslookingtocontroloverourverymindsandbodies.WhiletheU.S.ArmywillbenefitfromaugmentingitsSoldiers,theforcewillfaceadversarieswhoaresimilarlyenhanced,andanaugmentationarmsracecouldevolve.EMERGINGS&TTRENDSODASA(R&T)|EmergingS&TTrends:2016-20453Mobile&CloudComputingMobileandcloudcomputingaretransformingthewaypeopleinteractwithdata.IntheUnitedStates,anestimated30percentofWebbrowsingand40percentofsocialmediausearecurrentlydoneonmobiledevices.By2030,75%oftheworld’spopulationwillhavemobileconnectivityand60%shouldhavebroadbandaccess.Mobiledevicesarebecomingmorepowerfulandfeature-rich,withagrowingvarietyofembeddedsensorsthatmeasureweather,location,ambientlightandsound,andbiometrics.Workingintandemwithmobiledataaccess,cloudcomputingprovidesaccesstoalmostunlimitedcomputationalpowerthatscalesseamlesslywithoutrequiringmassiveinvestmentsinITinfrastructure.Overthenext30years,cloud-basedmobilecomputinghasthepotentialtotransformeverythingfromhealthcaretoeducation.Cellphoneswillmonitorvitalsignsandcommunicatedirectlywithdiagnosticapplications,peoplewilluseonlineeducationalportalsfrommobiledevicestolearnnewskills,andappswillallowfarmersindevelopingnationstoconnecttoreal-timeweatherdataandtoolsforoptimizingtheirharvests.Atthesametime,mobileandcloudcomputingwillputsignificantpressureonnetworksecurity,reliability,andbandwidth,andbothconsumersandenterpriseswillhavetogrowmorecomfortablewithrelinquishingtheirdatatothecloud.MedicalAdvancesOverthenext30years,medicinewillbetransformedbymultipletechnologicalbreakthroughs.Genomicswillgiverisetopersonalizedmedicine,withtreatmentsforcancer,cardiovasculardisease,Alzheimer’s,andotherdiseasestailoredtoindividualgenetics.ArtificialorganswillbegrownfortransplantationfromDNAsamples,eliminatingwaittimesforlife-savingtransplantsandtheriskoforganrejection.Prostheticswillbewireddirectlyintothenervoussystemandwillincorporatebiologicallybasedsensorsthatprovideanear-normalsenseoftouch.Roboticfirstrespondersandtissuepreservationtechniquessuchascontrolledhypothermiawillrevolutionizetraumacareandgreatlyextendthe“goldenhour”forwoundedSoldiers.Asscientistsunlockthekeystoaging,peoplewilllivelongerandstayhealthyandactivewellintowhattodayweconsider“oldage”.Atthesametime,thecostofadvancedmedicalcarewillstressmanynationalhealthcaresystemsandtriggerrisinginequalityinaccesstolife-savingtreatments.Thecomingmedicalrevolutionwillalsoenablepeopletoremainhealthyandproductivefordecadeslonger,amplifyingcompetitionforjobsbetweenolderandyoungerworkersandcreatingadditionalstrainonsocialsafetynets.Drugresistantbacteriawillbecomeanurgentprobleminmanypartsoftheworld.CyberCyberdefenseishardlyanewtrend—warningsabouta“cyberPearlHarbor”weremadeasearlyas1991.However,overthenext30yearstheriseoftheinternetofthingsandgrowinginterdependenceamongconnectedaspectsofeverydaylifewillbringcybersecuritytotheforefront.Whilethenumberandscopeofcyberattacksisincreasing,mosthavebeentargetedagainstindividualconsumersorcorporationsandthedamagefromindividualattacks,whileextensive,hasbeeneasilycontained.Ascars,homeappliances,powerplants,streetlights,andmillionsofotherobjectsbecomenetworked,thepotentialforatrulydevastatingcyberattackwillgrow.Nations,corporations,andindividualswillbechallengedtosecuretheirdatafromevermoreinsidiousattacks—manyofwhichmaygoundetectedforyears.Theworst-casescenarioenvisionsaformof“cybergeddon”,inwhichtheimmenseeconomicandsocialpoweroftheInternetcollapsesundertheweightofrelentlesscyberattacks.EnergyOverthenext30yearstheglobaldemandforenergyisprojectedtogrowby35%.Thedevelopmentofmethodslikefrackinganddirectionaldrillinghaveopenedvastnewreservesofoilandnaturalgas.Thesetechnologieshaveup-endedglobaloilmarketsandturnedtheUnitedStatesintooneoftheworld’slargestfossilfuelproducers.Atthesametime,renewableenergysourcessuchassolarandwindareapproachingcost-paritywithfossilfuels.Inthepasttwodecades,thecostofpowerproducedbysolarcellshasdroppedfromnearly$8perwattofcapacitytolessthanone-tenthofthatamount.Nuclear,whilestillthesubjectofintensepublicdebate,iscontinuingtogrow,withnewreactordesignedpromisinggreatersafetyandlessradioactivewaste.Whileadoptionofcleanerenergysourceswouldhelpcombatglobalclimatechange,newfrictionswillemergeoveraccesstorarematerialsusedinbatteries,solarcells,andotherlinchpinsoftheenergyrevolution.ThefadingoffossilfuelsalsocarriessignificantriskofeconomicandsocialdestabilizationacrosstheMiddleEastandNorthAfrica,presentingnewsecuritychallengesfortheUnitedStatesanditsallies.EMERGINGS&TTRENDS(CONT.)ODASA(R&T)|EmergingS&TTrends:2016-20454SmartCitiesBy2045,65-70%oftheworld’spopulation—approximately6.4billionpeople—willliveincities.Asurbanpopulationsswell,thenumberofmegacitieswith10millioninhabitantsormorewillgrow,from28in2016to41by2030.Massmigrationtocitieswillputsignificantpressureonurbantransportationsystems,foodandwatersupplies,powerandenergyinfrastructure,sanitation,andpublicsafety.Informationandcommunications(ICT)technologywillsupportthegrowthof“smartcities”thatusedataandautomationtomakeurbancentersmoreefficientandsustainable.Distributedsensorsystemswillmonitorwaterandpowerusageandautomaticallybalancedistributionviasmartgrids.Networkedtrafficsystemsandautonomoustransportationoptionswilleasegridlock.Newmaterialsanddesigntechniqueswillbeusedtobuildsmartbuildingsthatmaximizetheefficiencyofheating,cooling,andlighting.Rooftopsolarpanels,micro-windturbines,thermalpower,andotherrenewableenergysourceswillprovideclean,distributedpowergeneration.Atthesametime,citiesthatcannotaffordtoinvestinthesetechnologies(orthatlackthepoliticalwilltodoso)couldturnintocongested,dirty,anddangerousflashpointsforinstabilityandconflictInternetofThingsAccordingtoconservativeestimates,therewillbeover100billiondevicesconnectedtotheInternetby2045.Thiswillincludemobileandwearabledevices,appliances,medicaldevices,industrialsensors,securitycameras,cars,clothing,andothertechnologies.Allofthesedeviceswillproduceandsharevastamountsofinformationthatwillrevolutionizehowweworkandlive.PeoplewilluseinformationgeneratedthroughtheInternetofThings(IoT)tomakesmarterdecisionsandgaindeeperinsightintotheirownlivesandtheworldaroundthem.Atthesametime,web-connecteddeviceswillalsoautomatemanymonitoring,management,andrepairtasksthatcurrentlyrequirehumanlabor.TheintersectionoftheIoT,analytics,andartificialintelligencewillcreateaglobalnetworkofsmartmachinesthatconductanenormousamountofcriticalbusinesswithnohumanintervention.WhiletheIoTwillimprovemanyaspectsofeconomicefficiency,publicsafety,andpersonalproductivityitwillalsoexacerbateconcernsovercybersecurityandprivacy.Criminalorganizations,terrorists,andadversarialnationstateswillusetheIoTasanewvectorforattackingtheUnitedStatesanditsallies.Theimmenseamountofdatageneratedthroughweb-connecteddeviceswillalsoenablegovernmentstoconductmasssurveillanceonpopulations,leadingtoongoingtensionsbetweendigitalfreedomandsecurity.FoodandWaterTechnologyOverthenext30years,inadequateaccesstofoodandfreshwaterwillbecomeacrisispointinmanypartsoftheworld.Roughly25%ofcurrentfarmlandisalreadydegradedfromoverfarming,drought,andair/waterpollution.Underoptimisticforecasts,pricesforstaplegrainscouldriseby30%overthecomingdecades—increasesof100%arenotoutofthequestionifclimatechange,demandpatterns,andfailedresourcemanagementcontinueoncurrenttrajectories.By2045,3.9billionpeople—over40%oftheworld’spopulation—couldfacewaterstress.Technologyoffersmanypotentialsolutionstofoodandwatercrises.Desalination,micro-irrigation,waterreclamation,rainwaterharvesting,andothertechnologiescouldrelievepressureonfreshwatersupplies.Geneticallymodifiedcropsandautomationcouldimprovecropyieldsandallowfarmerstoproducemorenutritionfromlessland.Foodandwater,longtakenforgrantedinthedevelopedworld,willbecomeamajorfocusforinnovation,andcouldbecomeamajorflashpointforconflict.QuantumComputingQuantumcomputingusespropertiesofsubatomicparticleslikesuperpositionandentanglementtoencodeandmanipulatedata.Whilethetechnologyhasbeendiscussedasatheoreticalpossibilityfordecades,recentresearcheffortsacrossacademia,industry,andgovernmentlabsarebeginningtodemonstratequantumsystemsthatmighthavepracticalapplicationsinthenext5-15years.Quantumcomputingcouldbealinchpintechnologythatrevolutionizesmultipleothertechnicaldomainssuchasclimatemodeling,pharmaceuticalresearch,andmaterialsscience.However,mostoftheinterestinquantumcomputingisrelatedtohowitwouldtransformcryptography.Aquantumcomputercouldcrackallcurrentencryptionmethods,andquantumcryptographycouldprovidethefirsttrulyunbreakableencodingtechnology.Recentresearchhasbeguntoovercomemanyofthetechnicalproblemsthathavelimitedthedevelopmentofpracticalquantumcomputers.Whilereal-worldapplicationsofquantumcomputingmightnotbeseenuntilthemid-2040s,aninfluxofinvestmentbygovernmentsandindustrysignalsthatquantumcomputingmightbeapproachingatippingpoint.EMERGINGS&TTRENDS(CONT.)ODASA(R&T)|EmergingS&TTrends:2016-20455SocialEmpowermentApproximately65%ofAmericanadultsnowusesocialmedia—upfrom7%in2005.2Socialmediahasundoubtedlychangedthewaypeopleconnectonline,butoverthenext30years,socialtechnologieswillbecomeanengineforempoweringindividualstoshapetheirownmicro-cultures.ManytraditionalpowerstructureswillbeoverturnedaspeopleformInternet-basedcommunitiesdefinedbytechnologically-mediatedsocialcontracts.Governmentswillfinditincreasinglydifficulttocontrolthepoliticalnarrativeaspeopleshareeyewitnessaccountsofcorruptionandoppressiondirectly,withoutthefilterofmassmedia.Whilec