宏观经济学课件28unemployment

28UnemploymentandItsNaturalRate28Inthischapter,lookfortheanswerstothesequestions:Howisunemploymentmeasured?Whatisthe“naturalrateofunemployment”?Whyaretherealwayssomepeopleunemployed?Howisunemploymentaffectedbyunionsandminimumwagelaws?Whatisthetheoryofefficiencywages,andhowdoesithelpexplainunemployment?HowIsUnemploymentMeasured?UnemploymentismeasuredbytheBureauofLaborStatistics(BLS).Itsurveys60,000randomlyselectedhouseholdseverymonth.ThesurveyiscalledtheCurrentPopulationSurvey.美国每个月第一个周五公布失业率数据2013年9月9日，中国首次向外公开了调查失业率的有关数据HowIsUnemploymentMeasured?Basedontheanswerstothesurveyquestions,theBLSplaceseachadultintooneofthreecategories:EmployedUnemployedNotinthelaborforceHowIsUnemploymentMeasured?TheBLSconsidersapersonanadultifheorsheisover16yearsold.HowIsUnemploymentMeasured?Apersonisconsideredemployedifheorshehasspentmostofthepreviousweekworkingatapaidjob.HowIsUnemploymentMeasured?Apersonisunemployedifheorsheisontemporarylayoff,islookingforajob,oriswaitingforthestartdateofanewjob.HowIsUnemploymentMeasured?Apersonwhofitsneitherofthesecategories,suchasafull-timestudent,homemaker,orretiree,isnotinthelaborforce.HowIsUnemploymentMeasured?LaborForceThelaborforceisthetotalnumberofworkers,includingboththeemployedandtheunemployed.TheBLSdefinesthelaborforceasthesumoftheemployedandtheunemployed.Figure1TheBreakdownofthePopulationin2007Copyright©2003Southwestern/ThomsonLearningAdultPopulation(231.1million)LaborForce(153million)Employed(146.3million)Notinlaborforce(78.1million)Unemployed(6.7million)HowIsUnemploymentMeasured?Theunemploymentrateiscalculatedasthepercentageofthelaborforcethatisunemployed.Thelabor-forceparticipationrateisthepercentageoftheadultpopulationthatisinthelaborforce.HowIsUnemploymentMeasured?A

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CalculatelaborforcestatisticsComputethelaborforce,u-rate,adultpopulation,andlaborforceparticipationrateusingthisdata:13AdultpopulationoftheU.S.

bygroup,March2007#ofemployed 146.3million#ofunemployed 6.7millionnotinlaborforce 78.1million0A

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AnswersLaborforce =employed+unemployed

=146.3+6.7

=153.0millionU-rate =100x(unemployed)/(laborforce)

=100x6.7/153.0

=4.4%140A

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AnswersPopulation =laborforce+notinlaborforce

=153.0+78.1

=231.1LFpartic.rate =100x(laborforce)/(population)

=100x153.0/231.1

=66.2%150CHAPTER15UNEMPLOYMENTLaborMarketStatisticsforDifferentGroupsTheBLSpublishesthesestatisticsfordemographicgroupswithinthepopulation.Thesedatarevealwidelydifferentlabormarketexperiencesfordifferentgroups.0Table1TheLabor-MarketExperiencesofVariousDemographicGroups,2007Copyright©2004South-WesternAdults(20yrs&older)u-rateLFpart.rateWhite,male3.4%76.6%White,female3.360.1Black,male9.071.0Black,female6.264.3Teens(16-19yrs)u-rateLFpart.rateWhite13.244.9Black25.030.5LaborMarketStatisticsbyEducationLevel,

March2007Adults(25yrs&older)u-rateLFpart.ratelessthanh.s.7.0%47.2%h.s.diploma4.162.9somecollegeorassocdegree3.671.6bachelor’sdegreeormore1.878.60Figure2UnemploymentRateSince1960Copyright©2003Southwestern/ThomsonLearning108642019701975196019651980198519902005PercentofLaborForce19952000NaturalrateofunemploymentUnemploymentrateFigure3LaborForceParticipationRatesforMenandWomenSince1950Copyright©2003Southwestern/ThomsonLearning1008060402001950195519601965197019751980198519902000Labor-ForceParticipationRate(inpercent)WomenMen1995A

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ExerciseIneachofthefollowing,whathappenstotheu-rate?Doestheu-rategiveanaccurateimpressionofwhat’shappeninginthelabormarket?21A. Suelostherjob,andbeginslookingforanewone.B. Jon,asteelworkerwhohasbeenoutofworksincehismillclosedlastyear,esdiscouragedandgivesuplookingforwork.C. Sam,thesoleearnerinhisfamilyof5,justlosthis$80,000jobasaresearchscientist.Immediately,hetakesapart-timejobatMcDonald’suntilhecanfindanotherjobinhisfield.0A

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Answers22A. Suelostherjob,andbeginslookingforanewone.u-raterisesArisingu-rategivestheimpressionthatthelabormarketisworsening,anditis.0A

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Answers23B. Jonhasbeenoutofworksincelastyear,

esdiscouraged,stopslookingforwork.Discouragedworkers

wouldliketoworkbuthavegivenuplookingforjobsclassifiedas“notinthelaborforce”ratherthan“unemployed”u-ratefalls,becauseJonisnolongercountedasunemployed.Afallingu-rategivestheimpressionthatthelabormarketisimproving,butitisnot.0A

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Answers24C. Samlosthis$80,000job,andtakesapart-timejobatMcDonald’suntilhefindsabetterone.u-rateunchanged,becauseapersonis“employed”whethertheyworkfullorparttime.Thingsareworse,buttheu-ratefailstoshowit.0DoestheUnemploymentRateMeasureWhatWeWantItTo?Itisdifficulttodistinguishbetweenapersonwhoisunemployedandapersonwhoisnotinthelaborforce.Discouragedworkers,peoplewhowouldliketoworkbuthavegivenuplookingforjobsafteranunsuccessfulsearch,don’tshowupinunemploymentstatistics.Otherpeoplemayclaimtobeunemployedinordertoreceivefinancialassistance,eventhoughtheyaren’tlookingforwork. CHAPTER15UNEMPLOYMENTWhatDoestheU-RateReallyMeasure?Theu-rateisnotaperfectindicatorofjoblessnessorthehealthofthelabormarket:excludesdiscouragedworkersdoesnotdistinguishbetweenfull-timeand

part-timework,orpeopleworkingparttimebecausefull-timejobsnotavailablesomepeoplemisreporttheirworkstatusintheBLSsurveyDespitetheseissues,theu-rateisstillaveryusefulbarometerofthelabormarket&economy.0中国传统失业率：城镇登记失业率（2011年开始，换用调查失业率说法）城镇登记失业人员指：有非农业户口，在一定的劳动年龄内（16岁以上及男50岁以下、女45岁以下），有劳动能力，无业而要求就业，并在当地就业服务机构进行求职登记的人员。分子是登记的失业人数，分母是从业的人数与登记失业人数之和。城镇单位就业人口：不包括农村劳动力、聘用的离退休人员、港澳台及外方人员中国城镇登记失业率数据注：2012年调查失业率数据位4.9%-5.2%。2010-2013登记失业率数据始终4.1%。2013年调查失业率数据5%中国失业率指标的缺陷（1）中国凡届满一定下限年龄、具有劳动能力、要求有报酬的工作而尚未获得工作职位的人口，称为失业人口。不愿工作而赋闲的人，或虽有工作愿望而尚未达到规定下限年龄的人，均不得算作失业人口。中国通称的待业人口。（2）中国就业服务体系和社会保障体系还不完善，到劳动保障部门就业服务机构登记求职的失业人员数量不够全面，再加上就业和失业登记办法还不健全和规范，因此，存在着实际失业率高于登记失业率的现象。（3）农村人口未加考虑。发展中国家的失业类型上述失业均为公开性失业（狭义失业）发展中国家存在非公开性失业（劳动力就业不足）、且后者规模庞大。发展经济学习惯将公开性和非公开性失业统称为广义的失业。爱德华兹（E.O.Edwards）将发展中国家的劳动力利用不充分或劳动不得其用，即广义的失业，区分为五种存在形式Edwards五种失业类型：（1）公开性失业。这种失业包括自愿失业和非自愿失业。自愿失业，指能够胜任某项工作的人拒绝考虑这种工作，而暂时处在闲置状态；非自愿失业，指积极寻找工作，但仍无工作可做的人。（2）就业不足。指劳动者实际工作的时间少于他们希望工作的时间。（3）表面上是在工作或愿意工作，但利用不充分。这种失业包括：第一，变相的就业不足。一些人看起来全天在农场、工厂和政府部门工作，但实际上他们提供的服务只要更少的时间就能完成。第二，隐性失业。有些人因找不到工作不得不选择非就业活动，典型地就是去接受教育和从事家务劳动。如受过一定教育的人本想参加工作，但因就业机会缺乏而被迫继续上学；妇女本来愿意参加工作，但因受传统风俗习惯和道德因素的影响而找不到工作，她们不得不围着灶台转。这样，教育机构和家庭就成为这些“愿意就业者最后的场所”。第三，提前退休。这种现象在公务员中特别明显，而且呈上升趋势。在许多发展中国家，尽管人们的寿命在延长，但退休年龄却在逐渐下降，这主要是为更多的年轻人创造就业和提升的机会。Edwards五种失业类型：（4）损伤。指本来在整个工作阶段都能工作的人，但由于营养不良或缺乏正常的卫生保健条件而致身体欠佳，或者不能做全日工作。（5）生产无效益。指本来有生产性的劳动者，但因补充性的物质资源不充分，生产率极低，生产出来的成果甚至还不能补偿他们的生活必需品。HowLongAretheUnemployedwithoutWork?Mostspellsofunemploymentareshort.Mostunemploymentobservedatanygiventimeislong-term.Mostoftheeconomy’sunemploymentproblemisattributabletorelativelyfewworkerswhoarejoblessforlongperiodsoftime.CHAPTER15UNEMPLOYMENTTheDurationofUnemploymentMostspellsofunemploymentareshort:Typically1/3oftheunemployed

havebeenunemployed<5weeks,

2/3havebeenunemployed<14weeks.Only20%havebeenunemployed>6months.Yet,mostobservedunemploymentislongterm.Thesmallgroupoflong-termunemployedpersonshasfairlylittleturnover,soitaccountsformostoftheunemploymentobservedovertime.Knowingthesefactshelpspolicymakersdesignbetterpoliciestohelptheunemployed.0CHAPTER15UNEMPLOYMENTCyclicalUnemploymentvs.theNaturalRateThere’salwayssomeunemployment,thoughtheu-ratefluctuatesfromyeartoyear.Thenaturalrateofunemploymentthenormalrateofunemploymentaroundwhichtheactualunemploymentratefluctuatescyclicalunemploymentthedeviationofunemploymentfromits

naturalrateassociatedwithbusinesscycles,whichwe’llstudyinlaterchapters0U.S.Unemployment,1960-2006UnemploymentrateNaturalrateofunemployment0CHAPTER15UNEMPLOYMENTExplainingtheNaturalRate:AnOverviewEvenwhentheeconomyisdoingwell,thereisalwayssomeunemployment,including:frictionalunemploymentoccurswhenworkersspendtimesearchingforthejobsthatbestsuittheirskillsandtastesshort-termformostworkersstructuralunemploymentoccurswhentherearefewerjobsthanworkersusuallylonger-term0WhyAreThereAlwaysSomePeopleUnemployed?Inanideallabormarket,wageswouldadjusttobalancethesupplyanddemandforlabor,ensuringthatallworkerswouldbefullyemployed.WhyAreThereAlwaysSomePeopleUnemployed?Frictionalunemploymentreferstotheunemploymentthatresultsfromthetimethatittakestomatchworkerswithjobs.Inotherwords,ittakestimeforworkerstosearchforthejobsthatarebestsuittheirtastesandskills.WhyAreThereAlwaysSomePeopleUnemployed?Structuralunemploymentistheunemploymentthatresultsbecausethenumberofjobsavailableinsomelabormarketsisinsufficienttoprovideajobforeveryonewhowantsone.JOBSEARCHJobsearchtheprocessbywhichworkersfindappropriatejobsgiventheirtastesandskills.resultsfromthefactthatittakestimeforqualifiedindividualstobematchedwithappropriatejobs.JOBSEARCHThisunemploymentisdifferentfromtheothertypesofunemployment.Itisnotcausedbyawageratehigherthanequilibrium.Itiscausedbythetimespentsearchingforthe“right”job.WhySomeFrictionalUnemploymentisInevitableSearchunemploymentisinevitablebecausetheeconomyisalwayschanging.Changesinthecompositionofdemandamongindustriesorregionsarecalledsectoralshifts.

Ittakestimeforworkerstosearchforandfindjobsinnewsectors.PublicPolicyandJobSearchGovernmentprogramscanaffectthetimeittakesunemployedworkerstofindnewjobs.Theseprogramsincludethefollowing:Government-runemploymentagenciesPublictrainingprogramsUnemploymentinsurancePublicPolicyandJobSearchGovernment-runemploymentagenciesgiveoutinformationaboutjobvacanciesinordertomatchworkersandjobsmorequickly.PublicPolicyandJobSearchPublictrainingprogramsaimtoeasethetransitionofworkersfromdecliningtogrowingindustriesandtohelpdisadvantagedgroupsescapepoverty.PublicPolicyandJobSearchUnemploymentinsuranceisagovernmentprogramthatpartiallyprotectsworkers’eswhentheyeunemployed.Offersworkerspartialprotectionagainstjoblosses.Offerspartialpaymentofformerwagesforalimitedtimetothosewhoarelaidoff.PublicPolicyandJobSearchUnemploymentinsuranceincreasestheamountofsearchunemployment.Itreducesthesearcheffortsoftheunemployed.Itmayimprovethechancesofworkersbeingmatchedwiththerightjobs.PublicPolicyandJobSearchStructuralunemploymentoccurswhenthequantityoflaborsuppliedexceedsthequantitydemanded.Structuralunemploymentisoftenthoughttoexplainlongerspellsofunemployment.PublicPolicyandJobSearchWhyisthereStructuralUnemployment?Minimum-wagelawsUnionsEfficiencywagesMINIMUM-WAGELAWSWhentheminimumwageissetabovethelevelthatbalancessupplyanddemand,itcreatesunemployment.Figure4UnemploymentfromaWageAbovetheEquilibriumLevelCopyright©2003Southwestern/ThomsonLearningQuantityofLabor0

Surplusoflabor=UnemploymentLaborsupplyLabordemandWageMinimumwageLDLSWELEUNIONSANDCOLLECTIVEBARGAININGAunionisaworkerassociationthatbargainswithemployersoverwagesandworkingconditions.Inthe1940sand1950s,whenunionswereattheirpeak,aboutathirdoftheU.S.laborforcewasunionized.Aunionisatypeofcartelattemptingtoexertitsmarketpower.UNIONSANDCOLLECTIVEBARGAININGTheprocessbywhichunionsandfirmsagreeonthetermsofemploymentiscalledcollectivebargaining.UNIONSANDCOLLECTIVEBARGAININGAstrikewillbeorganizediftheunionandthefirmcannotreachanagreement.Astrikereferstowhentheunionorganizesawithdrawaloflaborfromthefirm.UNIONSANDCOLLECTIVEBARGAININGAstrikemakessomeworkersbetteroffandotherworkersworseoff.Workersinunions(insiders)reapthebenefitsofcollectivebargaining,whileworkersnotintheunion(outsiders)bearsomeofthecosts.UNIONSANDCOLLECTIVEBARGAININGByactingasacartelwithabilitytostrikeorotherwiseimposehighcostsonemployers,unionsusuallyachieveabove-equilibriumwagesfortheirmembers.Unionworkersearn10to20percentmorethannonunionworkers.AreUnionsGoodorBadfortheEconomy?Criticsarguethatunionscausetheallocationoflabortobeinefficientandinequitable.Wagesabovethecompetitivelevelreducethequantityoflabordemandedandcauseunemployment.Someworkersbenefitattheexpenseofotherworkers.AreUnionsGoodorBadfortheEconomy?Advocatesofunionscontendthatunionsareanecessaryantidotetothemarketpoweroffirmsthathireworkers.Theyclaimthatunionsareimportantforhelpingfirmsrespondefficientlytoworkers’concerns.THETHEORYOFEFFICIENCYWAGESEfficiencywagesareabove-equilibriumwagespaidbyfirmsinordertoincreaseworkerproductivity.Thetheoryofefficiencywagesstatesthatfirmsoperatemoreefficientlyifwagesareabovetheequilibriumlevel.THETHEORYOFEFFICIENCYWAGESAfirmmaypreferhigherthanequilibriumwagesforthefollowingreasons:WorkerHealth:Betterpaidworkerseatabetterdietandthusaremoreproductive.WorkerTurnover:Ahigherpaidworkerislesslikelytolookforanotherjob.THETHEORYOFEFFICIENCYWAGESAfirmmaypreferhigherthanequilibriumwagesforthefollowingreasons:WorkerEffort:Higherwagesmotivateworkerstoputforwardtheirbesteffort.WorkerQuality:Higherwagesattractabetterpoolofworkerstoapplyforjobs.A

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ExerciseWhichofthefollowingwouldbemostlikelytoreducefrictionalunemployment?64A. Thegovteliminatestheminimumwage.B. Thegovtincreasesunemploymentinsurancebenefits.C. Anewlawbanslaborunions.D. Moreworkersposttheirresumesat,andmoreemployersusetofindsuitableworkerstohire.E. Sectoralshiftsemorefrequent.0A

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Answers65A. Thegovteliminatestheminimumwage.C. Anewlawbanslaborunions.Thesearelikelytoreduce

structuralunemployment,

notfrictionalunemployment.Whichofthefollowingwouldbemostlikel