KKR Perspective -What You Need to Know （英文）行业资料

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U.S.JOBS|Lun93,S0SS

WhatYouNeedtoKnow

HenryH.McVey

HeadofGlobalMacro&AssetAllocation

henry.mcvey@

DaveMcNellis

HeadofU.S.Macro

BrianLeung

Director,U.S.Macro

EzraMax

Analyst,U.S.Macro

MiguelMontoya

Analyst,U.S.Macro

1ottU.S.

jobsreport?

Overall,theU.S.nonfarmpayrollsreleaseforMaywasasolideconomicreportaswagegrowthmoderated,thelaborparticipationratetickedup,andwagesgrewinacontrolledmanner.However,weareenteringatricky–andpotentiallyunsettlingperiod–asthelabormarketisstillverytight,ongoingsupplychainissuesinAsiaremainproblematic,andhousingpricesgenerallycontinuetoberobust.Wealsothinkthatenergyandfoodpricesremainredhot.Ourbottomline:TheFedwillstillneedtotightenaggressivelyintoslowingeconomicgrowth.Someofthisnewsisalreadyinthepriceofriskassets,butwecontinuetofavoradifferentapproachtobothassetallocationandtoportfolioconstructionforthiscycle.

Whatdoesthismeanformarkets?

1.Overall,thisreportisagoodonefortheeconomy.Theparticipationrateincreased,servicesarebooming,andemploymentgrowthisbroad-based.AnothermonthofrobustpayrollswaslikelyboostedbydiminishingCOVIDfearsandtheneedtoreturntoworkaspricesriseandhouse-holdsavingsfall.Unlessthelaborforceparticipationratesurprisestotheupsideincomingmonths,weexpectthecombinationofstronglabordemand,limitedsupply,andahighquitsratetofuelstrongwagegrowththroughout2022andinto2023.

2.Underneaththesurface,though,thedatatellsataleoftwocities.Ontheonehand,theretailsectorshedjobswhichconfirmsourviewthattheconsumereconomyissufferingasprice-takersinretailstrug-gletopass-throughhigherinputcosts.Webelievethatthiscontractionisnotanaberration,butthebeginningofatrendincertainemploymentareaswithinthegoods-relatedsector.Ontheotherhand,pricingpowerinkeyareassuchasleisureandtravel,whichaccountedfor25%ofthetotalprivatesectorgaininjobs,sug-geststhatconsumersstillwanttospendonexperiences.

3.Thepandemichashitlowerincome

workersthehardest(accountingfor23%ofthetotalunemployed),astheycontinuetolagthebroaderrecovery.Remem-berthattwo-thirdsofexcesspandemicsavingshaveaccruedtothetopincomequintile,whilelow-incomehouseholds(lastquintile)hasseentheircashlargelydepleted,oreventurnnegative,inrealterms(afteradjustingforinflation).

4.Fromathematicperspective,wefeelbetteraboutourtopdownmacrothemesafterthisreport.Itreinforcesourmegathemeofservicesovergoods.Andwithwagesgrowingabovefivepercentforthefifthmonthinarow,wearedefinitelylivinginareflationaryenvironmentthatrequiresanoverweightpositoninRealAs-sets,includingInfrastructure,AssetBasedFinance,andselectpartsofRealEstate.Finally,theheadlinedatawasstrong,whichsuggeststhattheFedhasnotyet

Exhibit1

-100-50050100

sloweddemand,whichsuggeststighteningby50basispointincrementsinJuneandJulyistherightcall.

5.Whatdoesthismeanformarkets?Weremaincautious

asunemploymentisstillbelowtrendandinflationisstillabovefourpercent.Thiskindofbackdropisatoughoneforriskassets.Overall,wethinkwearetransitioningfromasituationwheremarketvolatilityislinkedtosurginginflationtoonewhereearningsareadverselyimpact-ed.Thegoodnewsisthatthetechnicalpictureisquiteattractive,asriskassetshavebeenbeatendown.JustconsiderthatalmosthalfoftheS&P500isdown20%ormore,sowearelikelystuckinamarketthatis‘fullofsoundandfury,signifyingnothing.’

Fromanassetallocationperspective,thisdataunderscoresourviewthatwearein

ADifferentKindofRecovery

,onethatrequiresafreshlookatassetallocation.Ourviewisthatthetraditional60/40shouldmigratetowardsmoreofa40/30/30,aframeworkthatincludesmoreRealAssetsandmorePrivateCreditwithafloatingratefeaturerelativetoamoretraditional60%Equities/40%Bondportfolio.

JobGainsThisMonthWereBroad-Based,WithLeisure/Hospitality,ProfessionalServices,andEducation/HealthcareLeadingtheWay.RetailTradeWasaKeyOffset

PayrollGrowth:MajorServices&GoodsSectors

(Change'000)

6mavg(Pre-Covid)Latest

Leisure&HospitalityEducation/Health

ProfessionalSvs

Retailtrade

Transport&Warehouse

Mining&Logging

Manufacturing

Construction

DataasatJune3,2022.Source:BureauofLaborStatistics,HaverAnalytics.

Exhibit2

OverallLaborForceParticipationInchedHigherto62.3%(from62.2%)

LaborForceParticipationRate(%)

25-54YearOlds(LHS)Total(RHS)

83.5%

82.5%

63.5%

80.5%

59.5%

'05'08'11'14'17'20'23

65.5%

67.5%

79.5%

61.5%

81.5%

DataasJune3,2022.Source:BureauofLaborStatistics,HaverAnalytics.

Exhibit3

TheCohortofLong-TermUnemployedWorkers(27WeeksandOver)Fellto1.36million(from1.48millioninApril)

LevelofUnemployedbyDurationofUnemployment('000s,SA)

15-26weeks27weeks&over

8,000

7,000

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

1.4mn

0

'05'07'09'11'13'15'17'19'21'23

DataasatJune3,2022.Source:BureauofLaborStatistics,HaverAnalytics.

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ImportantInformation

Theviewsexpressedinthispresentationaretheper-sonalviewsofHenryMcVeyofKohlbergKravisRob-erts&Co.L.P.(togetherwithitsaffiliates,“KKR”)anddonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsofKKRitselforanyinvestmentprofessionalatKKR.Thispresentationisnotresearchandshouldnotbetreatedasresearch.Thispresentationdoesnotrepresentvaluationjudg-mentswithrespecttoanyfinancialinstrument,issuer,securityorsectorthatmaybedescribedorreferencedhereinanddoesnotrepresentaformalorofficialviewofKKR.Thispresentationisnotintendedto,anddoesnot,relatespecificallytoanyinvestmentstrategyorproductthatKKRoffers.Itisbeingprovidedmerelytoprovideaframeworktoassistintheimplementationofaninvestor’sownanalysisandaninvestor’sownviewsonthetopicdiscussedherein.

TheviewsexpressedreflectthecurrentviewsofMr.McVeyasofthedatehereofandneitherMr.McVeynorKKRundertakestoadviseyouofanychangesintheviewsexpressedherein.Referencesto“we”,“us,”and“our”refertoMr.McVeyand/orKKR’sGlobalMacroandAssetAllocationteam,ascontextrequires,andnotofKKR.Opinionsorstatementsregardingfinancialmarkettrendsarebasedoncurrentmarketconditionsandaresubjecttochangewithoutnotice.References toatargetportfolioandallocationsofsuchaportfolio refertoahypotheticalallocationofassetsandnotanactualportfolio.Theviewsexpressedhereinanddis-cussionofanytargetportfolioorallocationsmaynotbereflectedinthestrategiesandproductsthatKKRoffersorinvests,includingstrategiesandproducts towhichMr.McVeyprovidesinvestmentadvicetooronbehalfofKKR.ItshouldnotbeassumedthatMr.McVeyhasmadeorwillmakeinvestmentrecommen-dationsinthefuturethatareconsistentwiththeviewsexpressedherein,oruseanyorallofthetechniquesormethodsofanalysisdescribedhereininmanaging

clientorproprietaryaccounts.Further,Mr.McVeymaymakeinvestmentrecommendationsandKKRanditsaffiliatesmayhavepositions(longorshort)orengageinsecuritiestransactionsthatarenotconsistentwiththeinformationandviewsexpressedinthisdocument.

Thispresentationhasbeenpreparedsolelyforinfor-mationalpurposes.Theinformationcontainedhereinisonlyascurrentasofthedateindicated,andmaybesupersededbysubsequentmarketeventsorforotherreasons.Chartsandgraphsprovidedhereinareforillustrativepurposesonly.Theinformationinthispresentationhasbeendevelopedinternallyand/orob-tainedfromsourcesbelievedtobereliable;however,neitherKKRnorMr.McVeyguaranteestheaccuracy,adequacyorcompletenessofsuchinformation.Noth-ingcontainedhereinconstitutesinvestment,legal,taxorotheradvicenorisittobereliedoninmakinganinvestmentorotherdecision.

Therecanbenoassurancethataninvestmentstrat-egywillbesuccessful.Historicmarkettrendsarenotreliableindicatorsofactualfuturemarketbehaviororfutureperformanceofanyparticularinvestmentwhichmaydiffermaterially,andshouldnotberelieduponassuch.Targetallocationscontainedhereinaresubjecttochange.Thereisnoassurancethatthetargetallo-cationswillbeachieved,andactualallocationsmaybesignificantlydifferentthanthatshownhere.Thispresentationshouldnotbeviewedasacurrentorpastrecommendationorasolicitationofanoffertobuyorsellanysecuritiesortoadoptanyinvestmentstrategy.

Theinformationinthispresentationmaycontainpro-jectionsorotherforward-lookingstatementsregardingfutureevents,targets,forecastsorexpectationsregardingthestrategiesdescribedherein,andisonlycurrentasofthedateindicated.Thereisnoassurancethatsucheventsortargetswillbeachieved,andmay

besignificantlydifferentfromthatshownhere.Theinformationinthispresentation,includingstatementsconcerningfinancialmarkettrends,isbasedoncurrentmarketconditions,whichwillfluctuateandmaybesupersededbysubsequentmarketeventsorforotherreasons.Performanceofallcitedindicesiscalculatedonatotalreturnbasiswithdividendsreinvested.Theindicesdonotincludeanyexpenses,feesorchargesandareunmanagedandshouldnotbeconsideredinvestments.

Theinvestmentstrategyandthemesdiscussedhereinmaybeunsuitableforinvestorsdependingontheirspecificinvestmentobjectivesandfinancialsituation.Pleasenotethatchanges