dec-investment2013年10月13日余润共83图片每页打四个拍摄

SS14– ysisandAssigned49．OverviewofEquitySecuritiesIntroductiontoIndustry 51．EquityValuation:ConceptsandBasic

AssignedReading49．OverviewofEquity LOS49.a:DescribecharacteristicsoftypesofequityEquitysecuritiesareanimportantassetbecauseoftheiruniquereturnandriskcharacteristicsinglobalfinancialEquitieshaveshownhigherreturnsthanbondsandbutalsohigher

Commonshareholdershavearesidualclaimonfirmassetsand ernthecorporationthroughvotingrights.Statutoryvotingvs.cumulativevotingCallablecommonsharesallowthefirmtherightrepurchasethesharesataprespecified Putablecommonsharesgivetheshareholdertherighttosellthesharesbacktothefirmatapre-specifiedprice. 49.49.49.Preferredstocktypicallydoesnotmature,doesnothavevotingrights,andhasdividendsthatarefixedinamountbutarenotacontractualobligationofthefirm.Cumulativepreferredsharesrequireanydividendsthatweremissedinthepast(dividendsinarrears)tobepaidbeforecommonshareholdersreceiveanydividends.Non-cumulativepreferencesharesParticipatingpreferredsharesreceiveextradividendsiffirmprofitsexceedaprespecifiedlevelandavaluegreaterthantheparvalueifthefirmisliquidated.Non-participatingpreferenceshares5

Convertiblepreferredstockcanbeconvertedtocommonstockatapre-specifiedconversionratio.当公 6 LOS49.b:Describedifferencesinvotingrightsandotherownershipcharacteristicsamongdifferentequityclasses.公司可 不同等级的普通股高等级的普通股可以具 的投票权，或在公司算时优先行使索

LOS49.c:DistinguishbetweenpublicandprivateequityComparedtopublicequity,privateequityhasfollowing1.Less2.Sharepriceisnegotiated3.Morelimitedfirmfinancialdisclosure4.Lowerreporting5.Potentiallyweaker 6.Greaterabilitytofocusonlong-termprospectsbecausethereisnopublicpressureforshort-termresults. •7.Potentiallygreaterreturn PublicandprivateequityVenturestart-zip,earlystage,ormezzanineLeveragedbuyoutor 私募股权投资在国内创业板的表

LOS49.d:Describemethodsforinvestinginnon-domesticequityDirectSomeobstaclestodirectforeigninvestmentareTheinvestmentandreturnaredenominatedinaforeignTheforeignstockexchangemaybeThereportingrequirementsofforeignstockexchangesmaybelessstrict,impeding Investorsmustbefamiliarwiththeregulationsproceduresofeachmarketinwhichthey Investinnon-domesticequityDepositoryreceiptssponsored unsponsoredGlobaldepositoryreceipts(GDRs):issuedoutsideU.S.andtheissuer'shomeU.S.dollarsandtradeintheUnited

Investinnon-domesticequity Investinnon-domesticequityGlobalregisteredshares(GRS)aretradedincurrenciesonstockexchangesaroundtheAbasketoflisteddepositoryreceipts(BLDR)isanexchange-tradedfund(ETF)thatisacollectionofDRs.ETFsharestradeinmarketsjustlikecommonstocks.

LOS49.e:Comparetheriskandreturncharacteristicsoftypesofequitysecurities.Thereturnsonequityinvestmentsconsistofpricechanges,dividendpayments,and,inthecaseofequitiesdenominatedinaforeigncurrency,gainsorlossesfromchangesinexchangerates. Theriskofequitysecuritiesismostcommonlymeasuredasthestandarddeviationofreturns. Preferredstockislessriskythancommonstockbecausepreferredstockpaysaknown,fixeddividendtoinvestors;preferredstockholdersmustreceivedividendsbeforecommonstockdividendscanbepaid;andpreferredstockholdershaveaclaimequaltoparvalueifthefirmisliquidated.PutablesharesaretheleastriskyandcallablesharesaretheCumulativepreferredsharesarelessriskythannon-cumulativepreferredshares,asanydividendsmissedmustbepaidbeforeacommonstockdividendcanbepaid.

LOS49.f:Ex intheroleofequitysecuritiesinthefinancingofa'sassets.Equitysecuritiesprovidefundstothefirmtobuyproductiveassets,tobuyothercompanies,ortooffertoemployeesascompensation.Equitysecuritiesprovideliquiditythatmaybeimportantwhenthefirmmustraiseadditionalfunds.。 LOS49.g:Distinguishbetweenthemarketvalueandbookvalueofequitysecurities.Thebookvalueofequityisthedifferencebetweenthefinancialstatementvalueofthefirm'sassetsandliabilities.Positiveretainedearningsincreasethebookvalueofequity.Bookvaluesreflectthefirm'spastoperatingandfinancingchoices.ThemarketvalueofequityisthesharepricetimesnumberofsharesMarketvaluereflectsinvestors'expectationsaboutthetiming,amount,andriskofthefirm'sfuturecashflows

LOS49.h:Comparea 'scostofequity,itsaccountingreturnonequity,andinvestors'requiredratesofreturn.净资产收益率等于归属于普通股东的净利润除以期内股权的平均帐面价值 ROECostofEquity&RequiredHigherROEisgenerallyviewedasapositiveforafirm,butthereasonforanincreaseshouldbeexamined.Thefirm'scostofequityistheexpectedequilibriumtotalreturn(includingdividends)onitssharesinthemarket.Afirm’costofequitycanbeinterpretedastheminimumrateofreturnrequiredbyinvestor(intheaggregate)tocompensatethemfortheriskofthefirm’sequityshares.

ROECostofequity&RequiredInvestors'requiredratesofreturnarereflectedinmarketpricesofthefirm‘s ROECostofequity&Required

AssignedReading50．IntroductiontoIndustry LOS50.a:Ex intheusesofindustry ysisandtherelationof ysisto ysisisnecessaryforunderstanding'sbusinessenvironmentbeforeengaginginysisofthe Theindustryenvironmentcanprovideinformationaboutthefirm'spotentialgrowth,competition,risks,appropriatedebtlevels,andcreditrisk.Industryvaluationcanbeusedinanactivemanagementstrategytodeterminewhichindustriestooverweightorunderweightinaportfolio.Industryrepresentationisoftenasignificantcomponentinaperformanceattributionysisofaportfolio'sretur2n5.

LOS50.b:Comparemethodsbywhichcompaniescanbegrouped,currentindustryclassificationsystems,andclassifya givenadescriptionofitsactivitiesandtheclassificationsystem.按以下特质对行业进PrincipalbusinessBusinesscyclesensitivity:cyclicalandnon-cyclicalStatisticalmethods的四个缺历史上业绩表现关联度高的公司未必在未来也保持高的关采用不同时间段或不同地域的历史数据可能影响分类的结分类结果有时难以解释统计方法本身具有缺陷性，偶然性会影响 IndustryclassificationIndustryclassificationsystemsfromcommercialprovidersincludetheGlobalIndustryClassificationStandard(Standard&Poor'sandMSCIBarra),RussellGlobalSectors,andtheIndustryClassification ark(DowJonesandIndustryclassificationsystemsdevelopedby agenciesincludetheInternationalStandardIndustrialClassification(ISIC),theNorthAmericanIndustryClassificationSystem(NAICS),andsystemsdesignedtheEuropeanUnionandAustraliaandNew

LOS50.c:Exinthefactorsthataffectthesensitivityoftothebusinesscycleandtheusesandlimitationofindustryanddescriptorssuchas“growth”,“defensive”,“cyclical”Cyclicalfirmhasearningsthatarehighlydependentonthebusinesscycle.Noncyclicalfirmhasearningsthatarelessdependentof1.defensive(demandfortheproducttendsnottofluctuatewiththebusiness2.growth(demandissostrongthatitislargelyunaffectedbythebusinesscycle).Limitationsofdescriptorssuchasgrowth,defensive,andincludethefactscyclicalindustriesoftenincludegrowthevennon-cyclicalindustriescanbeaffectedbysevererecessions;3.defensiveindustriesarenotalwayssafeinvestments;businesscycletimingdiffersacrosscountriesandregions;and classificationoffirmsissomewhat LOS50.d:Ex intherelationof"peergroup,"asusedinequityvaluation,toa 'sindustryclassification. Peergroupshouldconsistofcompanieswithsimilarbusinessactivities,demanddrivers,coststructuredrivers,andavailabilityofcapital.通过行

LOS50.e:Describetheelementsthatneedtobecoveredinathoroughindustry Athorough ysisEvaluatetherelationshipsbetweenmacroeconomicvariablesandindustrytrends.EstimateindustryvariablesusingdifferentandCheckestimatesagainstthosefrom ComparethevaluationfordifferentComparethevaluationforindustriesacrosstimedetermineriskandrotation Elementsinathorough yzeindustryprospectsbasedonstrategicClassifyindustriesbytheirlife-cyclePositiontheindustryontheexperienceConsiderdemographic, social,andtechnologicalExamine sthatdetermineindustry

LOS50.f:Describetheprinciplesof ysisofanPorter'sfive sthatdetermineindustrycompetition1.Rivalryamongexisting2.Threatofnew3.Threatofsubstitute4.Bargainingpowerof5.Bargainingpower LOS50.g:Ex intheeffectsofbarrierstoentry,industryconcentration,industrycapacity,andmarketsharestabilityonpricingpowerandreturnoncapital.Highbarrierstoentrypreventnewcompetitorsfromtakingawaymarketshare,buttheydonotguaranteepricingpower,especiallyiftheproductsareundifferentiated.Capacityisfixedintheshortrunandvariableinthelongrun.UndercapacitytypicallyresultsinpricingMarketshare

IndustryhighindustryconcentrationmaynotguaranteeWhilemarketfragmentationusuallyresultsinstrongcompetition,highindustryconcentrationmaynotguaranteepricingpower.Ifindustryproductsareundifferentiated,willswitchtothecheapestOvercapacitymayresultinprice LOS50.h:Describeproductandindustrylifecyclemodels,classifyindustryastolifecyclephase(e.g.,embryonic,growth,shakeout,maturity,anddecline)basedonadescriptionofit,anddescribethelimitationsofthelife-cycleconceptinforecastingindustryperformance.Phasesoftheindustrylife-cyclemodelaretheembryonic,growth,shakeout,maturity,anddeclinestages.Embryonicstage:Slowgrowth;highprices;largeinvestmentrequired;highriskoffailure.Growthstage:Rapidgrowth;littlecompetition;fallingprices;increasingprofitability.Shakeoutstage:Slowinggrowth;intensecompetition;industryovercapacity;decliningprofitability;costcutting;increasedfailures.Maturestage:Slowgrowth;consolidation;highbarrierstoentry;stablepricing;superiorfirmsgainmarketshare.Declinestage:Negativegrowth;decliningprices;

Industrylifecycle IndustrylifecycleAlimitationoflife-cycle ysisisthatlife-cyclestagesmaynotbeaslongorshortasanticipatedormightbeskippedaltogetherduetotechnological ernmentregulation,societalchange,orFirmsinthesamelifecyclestagewillexperiencedissimilargrowthandprofitsduetotheircompetitive

LOS50.j:Describedemographic, ernmental,socialandtechnologicalinfluencesonindustrygrowth,profitabilityandrisk.Demographicinfluencesonindustriesincludethesizeagedistributionoftheernmentfactorsincludetaxrates,regulations,empowermentofself-regulatoryorganizations,ernmentpurchasesofgoodsandSocialinfluencesrelatetohowpeoplein ctandconducttheirlives.Technologycandramaticallychangeanindustrytheintroductionofneworimproved LOS50.i:Comparecharacteristicsofrepresentativeindustriesfromthevariouseconomicsectors.majorbarrierstoindustryinfluenceofindustrycapacityonindustryLifedemographicernmentsocialtechnologicalwhethertheindustryisgrowth,defensive,or

LOS50.k:Describetheelementsthatshouldbecoveredina ysisshouldincludetheFirmoverview,includinginformationonoperations,ernance,andstrengthsandweaknesses.IndustryProductProductPricingFinancialratios,withcomparisonstootherfirmsandovertime.Projectedfinancialstatementsandfirm Elementsina Acostleadershipfirmseekstohavethelowestcostsofproductioninitsindustry,offerthelowestprices,andgenerateenoughvolumetomakeasuperiorreturn.Adifferentiatingfirm'sproductsandservicesshoulddistinctiveintermsoftype,quality,or

AssignedReadingEquityvaluation:conceptsandbasic LOS5l.a:Evaluatewhetherasecurity,givenitscurrentmarketpriceandavalueestimate,isovervalued,fairlyvalued,orundervaluedbythemarket.MarketpricevsintrinsicSeveralthingsto 23

LOS51.b:DescribemajorcategoriesofequityvaluationDiscountedcashflowPresentvalueofdividends---PresentvalueofoperatingcashPresentvalue cashflowtoMultiplierFirsttype:theratioofstockPrice/earningratio---Price/cashflowratio---Price/bookvalueratio---Price/salesratio---Secondtype:basedontheratioofenterprisevaluetoeitherEBITDAorAssetbased LOS51.c:Ex intherationaleforusingpresent-valueofcashHowmodelstovalueequityanddescribethedividenddiscountandAstock’svalueisthePVofthefutureexpectedcashflow.Dividenddiscountmodel-DDM:

Youholdthestockforoneyear,receiveD1andsellatP1One-yearholdingperiodDDM:P (1ke (1keP D D ... Dn(1ke (1ke) (1ke)ke=therequiredrateof

(1ke)

ValuationIdentifyallexpectedfuturecashEstimatetheequitydiscountrate:k=R+

-R KeyEstimateofthegrowthrateofthecashflow—Estimateofthediscountrate---Ifyouarebetteratestimatingtheseinputs,youwillbeasuperior Otherwise,justaGIGO:garbagein,garbageout!!!

Discounttheexpecteddividendandsellingpriceatrequired Astockpaida$1dividendlastyear.Youthinknextyear’sdividendwillbe5%higher,andthestockwillsellfor$13.45atyearend.Therisk-rateofinterestis6%,themarketreturnis12%,andthestock’sbetaisD1=D0(1+g)=$1(1+0.05)= k=R+β(R-R)= P

DDM—MultipleP D (1ke (1ke) (1ke)Usingthestockintheprecedingexample,wehadacurrentdividend$1,anexpectedgrowthrateof5%,andtheCAPM-determinedrequiredrateofreturnof13.2%,ifthestockwillsellfor$14.12intwoyears.D=D(1+g)=$1(1+0.05)=(1ke (1ke P=1.05/1.132+13.45/1.132=

D2=D0(1+g)2=$1(1+0.05)2=$1.1025P=1.05/1.132+1.1025/1,1322+14.12/1.1322=$12.81 FCFEFCFE=net e+depreciation-increaseinworkingcapital-fixedcapitalinvestment(FCInv)-debtprincipalrepayments+newdebtissuesFCFE=cashflowfromoperations-FCInv+

EstimatingtheRequiredReturnfor LOS51.d:Calculatetheintrinsicvalueofanon-callable,non-convertiblepreferredstock.

LOS51.e:CalculateandinterprettheintrinsicvalueofanequitysecuritybasedontheGordon(constant)growthdividenddiscountmodeloratwo-stagedividenddiscountmodel,asappropriate.TheinfiniteperiodDDMmodelassumesthatthegrowthrate(g)individendsisconstantgc.Theequationusingthisassumptionis:P 0 c 0 c 0 c 0 ...eeeeD(1g D(1gP 0 c 0 c 0 c 0 ...eeeeExample:Valuethepreferredstockof thatpaysa$5

(1k

(1k)

(1k)

(1k)dividend.Thefirm’sbondsarecurrentlyyielding8.5%andpreferredsharesarepricedtoyield50basispointsbelowthefirm’sbondyield.Step1:Determinethediscountrate.8.5%-0.5%=Step2:Valuethepreferredstock.D/kP=$5/0.08=

ThisequationsimplifiesPD0(1gc) keg kegThismodelisalsocalledconstantgrowthDDM,ortheGordonRearrangingtheterms

kD1 00 GordonGrowthAstockpaida$2dividendlastyear.Ifdividendsareexpecttogrowat5%forever.Therisk-rateofinterestis6%,themarketreturnis11%,andthestock’sbetais1.2.D1=D0(1+g)=$2(1+0.05)=ke=Rf+β(Rm-Rf)=0.06+1.2(0.11-0.06)=12%P=D1/(ke-gc)=2.1/(0.12-0.05)=$30

DDM—InfiniteperiodGordonGrowthP kegThecriticalrelationshipbetweenkandAsthedifferencebetweenkandgwiden,thevalueofthestockAsthedifferencenarrows,thevalueofthestockSmallchangesinthedifferencebetweenkandgcauselargechangeinthestock’svalue.TheassumptionoftheinfiniteperiodThestockpaysdividend,andtheygrowataconstantTheconstantgrowthrateg,isneverexpectedtoKmustbegreaterthang.ifnot,themathwillnotIfanyoneoftheseassumptionisnotmet,themodelbreaks Estimatethedividendgrowthrate-g=(Retentionrate,=(1-dividendpayoutROE=netprofitmargin*assetturnover*financialWhatisthefirm'sgrowthrategiventhatthefirmearns10%onequityof$100andpaysout40%ofearningsindividends?

Thefirmwillhavethreeyearsofextraordinarygrowthduringwhichnodividendwillbepaid.Beginninginyear4,earningswillstabilizeandgrowatasustainable5%,andthefirmwillpayout50%ofitsearningindividends.GivenE4=1.64andke=10%,calculatethevalueoftheD4=(dividendpayoutg=(1-dividendpayoutratio)(ROE)=(1-0.4)(0.1)=

P

3kegc 0.13IFnetprofitmarginincreases,thepriceofthestockwill

P 16.412.32e(1k (1e DDM—experiencetemporarysupernormalTwo-stagedividenddiscountFirststage:thefirm’sgrowthrateisg*fromyear1toyearnSecondstage:thefirm’sgrowthrateisgcfromyearn+1forever.P ...

DDM—experiencetemporarysupernormalConsiderastockwithdividendsthatareexpectedtogrowat20%peryearforfouryears,afterwhichtheyareexpecttoresumetheirnormalgrowthrateof5%peryearindefiniy.Thelastdividendpaidwas$1,andke=(1k (1k) (1k) (1k) Dn=lastdividendofthefirststage(supernormalgrowth

Firsttofindthevariablesyouneed:g*=20%,gc=5%,D0=1,Dn=4,ke=10%.D1=D0(1+g*)=1(1+0.2)=1.2,D2=D0(1+g*)2=1(1+0.2)2=1.44,Dn+1=thefirstdividendthatwillgrowatgc,

D3 D44P D4(1gc)2.08(10.05)4nP Dnn

keg

keg

0.1ke

D D D PP (1k (1k) (1k) (1k) (1k) 1 (10 (101) (101) (101) (101) 34 LOS51.f:IdentifycompaniesforwhichtheconstantgrowthormultistagedividenddiscountmodelisTheconstantgrowthmodelismostappropriateforfirmsthatpaydividendsthatgrowataconstantrate,suchasstableandmaturefirmsornoncyclicalfirmssuchasutilitiesandfoodproducersinmatureAtwo-stageDDMwouldbemostappropriateforafirmwithhighcurrentgrowththatwilldroptoastablerateinthefuture,anolderfirmthatisexperiencingatemporaryhighgrowthphase,oranolderfirmwithamarketsharethatisdecreasingbutexpectedtostabilize.Athree-stagemodelwouldbeappropriateforayoungfirmstillinahighgrowthphase.

LOS51.g:Ex intherationaleforusingpricemultiplestovalueequityanddistinguishbetweenmultiplesbasedoncomparablesversusmultiplesbasedonfundamentals.优点：Pricemultiplesarewidelyusedbyystsareeasilycalculatedandreadilyavailableandcanbeusedintimeseriesandcross-sectionalcomparisons.缺点：Acritiqueofpricemultiplesisthattheyreflectonlythepastbecausehistoricaltrailingdataareoftenusedinthedenominator.pricemultiplesbasedonpricemultiplesbasedon LOS51.h:Calculateandinterpretthefollowingmultiples:pricetoearnings,pricetoanestimateofoperatingcashflow,pricetosales,andpricetobookvalue.PD1P0D1/

MultiplesbasedonExample:Afirmhasanexpecteddividendpayoutratioof60%,arequiredrateofreturnof11%,andanexpecteddividendgrowthrateof5%.Whatisthefirm’sexpectedP/Eratio?Ifyouexpectnextyear’searnings(E1)tobe0k k0P/EratiowillincreaseAhigherdividendpayoutratio---AhighergrowthAlowerrequiredrateofCanafirmincreaseitsstockpricebyincreasingitsdividendpayoutNOT

$3.50,whatisthevalueofthestockStep1:ExpectedP/Eratio:0.6/(0.11-0.05)=Step2:valueofthestock:(E1)(P/E1)=($3.50)(10)=KnowabouttheearningmultiplierapproachtoThemaindeterminantofthesizeoftheP/Eratioisthedifferencebetweenkandg.TherelevantP/Eratioyoushouldstudyistheexpectedorleadingrationotthehistorical(P0/E0)TheP/EratioisjustarestatementoftheDDM.SoanythingthatstockpricesthroughtheDDMwillalsohavethesameeffectontheP/E MultiplesbasedonTheprice-earnings(P/E)ratioisafirm'sstock/dividedbyearningsperTheprice-sales(P/S)ratioisafirm'sstockdividedbysalesperTheprice-bookvalue(P/B)ratioisafirm'sstockpricedividedbybookvaluepershare.Theprice-cashflow(P/CF)ratioisafirm'sstockdividedbycashflowperCashflowmaybedefinedasoperatingcashfloworcashflow. Multiplesbasedon LOS51.i:Ex intheuseofenterprisevaluemultiplesinequityvaluationanddemonstratetheuseofenterprisevaluemultiplestoestimateequityvalue.Enterprisevalue(EV)measurestotal EV=marketvalueofcommonstock+marketvalueofdebt-cashandshort-terminvestmentsEBITDAisfrequentlyusedasthedenominatorinEVmultiplesbecauseEVrepresentstotal andEBITDArepresentsearningsavailabletoall

EnterprisevalueEnterprisevalue(EV)measurestotal EV=marketvalueofcommonstock+marketvalueofdebt-cashandshort-terminvestmentsEBITDAisfrequentlyusedasthedenominatorinEVmultiplesbecauseEVrepresentstotal andEBITDArepresentsearningsavailabletoall EnterprisevalueLOS51.j:Ex inasset-basedvaluationmodelsanddemonstratetheuseofasset-basedmodelstocalculateequityAsset-basedmodelsvalueequityasthemarketorvalueofassetsminusThesemodel