基于过去7年开工行情打分模型：开工行情中赔率和胜率皆优的8大细分领域

策略研究告级说明告大细分领域—基于过去7年开工行情打分模型日期：2023-02-19：郑小霞执业证书号：S0010520080007邮箱：zhengxx@：刘超执业证书号：S0010520090001邮箱：liuchao@发生季节性春季开工行情主要是由于国内返工复工时间具备较稳定的胜率皆优，性价比最高A告2告2/10正文目录1节后至两会结束前后的固定时期内，市场存在季节性开工行情 32重点把握8大开工行情中赔率胜率皆优的细分领域 5图表12016-2022年7年间，开工行情(春节结束-两会结束前后)，相关行业平均表现 4情及部分优势行业的具体市场表现 4图表3开工相关二级行业赔率+胜率的打分模型 6图表4基建开工相关申万二级行业在开工季行情期间的市场表现 7告3告3/10场存在工行情有色金属、机械设备、煤炭、公用事业、房地产、钢铁、交通运输、石油石化、银行)逐个进行春节开工表现复盘回顾，发现在每年某个固定时期内均存在基建开工情主要原因在于：一方面春节假期后，复工返工逐步增多，生产建设开工情况也将整体逐；高预期，这种预期的证实或者证伪往往需要等到两会结束前后，这样的政开工行情期间相关行业取得绝对收益和超额收益的概率高且稳定。我们选用准。而我们在复盘回顾过去7年开工季行情中显示，相关行业在这段时期内取得绝取得了正收益率，有6个年份取得了超额收益，其中平均收益率为的季节性效应，具有优秀的胜率(发生概率)和赔率(超额收益)，因此对于市场而言这是一告4告4/10图表12016-2022年7年间，开工行情(春节结束-两会结束前后)，相关行业平均表现基准及相关一级行业1%8%1%5%4%工.7%备公用事业产.6%石化7%5%4%Wind程图表22016-2022年7年间，开工行情及部分优势行业的具体市场表现行情起始春节结束2016/02/152017/02/032018/02/222019/02/112020/02/042021/02/182022/02/07开工行情结束时间2016/03/212017/03/242018/03/142019/03/222020/03/052021/03/182022/03/03“两会”结束时间2016/03/132017/03/152018/03/202019/03/152020/05/282021/03/112022/03/11万得基准涨跌9.5%4.8%5.5%25.1%16.6%-7.0%2.4%环保收益6.3%9.2%7.8%30.1%23.9%17.9%8.2%超额-3.2%4.4%2.2%4.9%7.3%24.9%5.7%建筑建材收益12.5%10.5%9.7%27.1%30.3%-1.3%-0.3%超额3.0%5.7%4.1%2.0%13.7%5.7%-2.7%建筑装饰收益10.7%11.8%4.9%21.3%21.8%10.1%6.9%超额1.2%7.0%-0.6%-3.9%5.3%17.1%4.4%基础化工收益9.5%4.8%7.1%26.0%17.4%-5.8%8.9%超额0.1%0.0%1.6%0.9%0.8%1.2%6.5%有色金属收益14.5%4.1%7.2%27.6%14.8%-2.1%16.2%超额5.0%-0.7%1.7%2.5%-1.8%4.9%13.7%告5告5/10加粗标红数字表示该年的开工行情某行业存在超额收益领域收益率的次数越多，则配置价值越突出，越值得重点配置。比比比告6告6/10比图表3开工相关二级行业赔率+胜率的打分模型二级行业平均收益率超额收益率打分性价比二级行业平均收益率超额收益率打分性价比次数(胜率)次数(胜率)水泥16.0%7.9%613.9房屋建设9.9%1.8%56.8非金属材料16.0%7.8%512.8普钢11.6%3.5%36.5环保设备15.9%7.8%512.8农化制品10.2%2.1%46.1专业工程14.9%6.8%612.8油服工程10.2%2.1%46.1工程咨询14.8%6.7%612.7化设备10.0%1.8%45.8环境治理14.6%6.5%612.5工程机械9.1%1.0%45.0金属新材料14.6%6.4%612.4橡胶8.9%0.8%44.8燃气13.6%5.5%611.5玻璃玻纤9.9%1.7%34.7冶钢原料14.3%6.2%410.2房地产开发9.3%1.2%34.2装修装饰12.5%4.3%59.39.1%1.0%34.0基础建设12.1%4.0%59.0焦炭8.7%0.5%33.5通用设备10.9%2.8%68.8航空机场8.6%0.5%33.5装修建材10.9%2.7%68.7物流7.4%-0.7%43.3航运港口11.8%3.7%58.7铁路公路7.3%-0.8%32.2塑料12.7%4.6%48.6轨交设备7.0%-1.2%38专用设备11.0%2.9%57.9化学纤维7.0%-1.2%20.8工业金属11.9%3.7%47.7城商行4.6%-3.6%3-0.6化学原料11.6%3.4%47.4炼化贸易5.1%-3.1%2-1.1化学制品9.5%1.4%67.42.4%-5.8%2-3.8特钢10.2%2.0%57.0股份银行2.1%-6.0%1-5.0煤炭开采11.9%3.8%36.8性价比=赔率+胜率告7告7/10图表4基建开工相关申万二级行业在开工季行情期间的市场表现基准涨跌9.5%4.8%5.5%25.1%16.6%-7.0%2.4%水泥收益涨跌17.5%15.7%9.9%22.0%32.2%6.4%8.4%超额收益8.0%11.0%4.3%-3.1%15.7%13.4%6.0%非金属材料收益涨跌4.9%10.5%17.6%23.3%21.9%8.0%25.3%超额收益-4.6%5.8%12.1%-1.8%5.3%15.1%22.9%环保设备收益涨跌6.6%3.7%11.8%35.0%28.5%22.1%3.6%超额收益-2.9%-1.0%6.2%9.9%12.0%29.1%1.2%专业工程收益涨跌7.0%15.9%7.2%29.7%25.3%10.8%8.4%超额收益-2.5%11.1%1.6%4.6%8.7%17.8%6.0%工程咨询收益涨跌14.4%4.3%10.6%27.4%25.3%12.3%9.5%超额收益4.9%-0.4%5.0%2.3%8.8%19.3%7.1%环境治理收益涨跌6.3%9.7%7.4%29.6%23.2%17.3%8.9%超额收益-3.2%4.9%1.9%4.5%6.7%24.3%6.5%金属新材料收益涨跌13.4%9.1%11.7%31.5%16.2%12.3%7.7%超额收益4.0%4.3%6.2%6.4%-0.4%19.4%5.3%燃气收益涨跌9.7%6.7%10.3%36.9%10.6%8.0%13.1%超额收益0.2%1.9%4.8%11.8%-6.0%15.0%10.6%冶钢原料收益涨跌19.0%6.8%-1.1%22.3%8.7%32.0%12.4%超额收益9.5%2.1%-6.7%-2.8%-7.8%39.0%10.0%装修装饰收益涨跌17.0%12.7%4.6%26.1%13.1%9.5%4.2%超额收益7.5%7.9%-1.0%1.0%-3.5%16.6%1.8%基础建设收益涨跌9.8%10.6%3.7%19.6%26.8%9.7%4.7%超额收益0.3%5.8%-1.8%-5.5%10.3%16.7%2.3%通用设备收益涨跌7.0%7.0%9.1%31.6%20.6%-3.1%3.9%超额收益-2.5%2.3%3.6%6.5%4.0%4.0%1.5%装修建材收益涨跌10.5%8.3%10.2%32.3%28.3%-5.5%-8.1%超额收益1.0%3.6%4.7%7.2%11.8%1.5%-10.5%航运港口收益涨跌3.5%9.7%6.0%30.0%6.2%11.6%15.6%超额收益-6.0%4.9%0.5%4.9%-10.4%18.6%13.2%塑料收益涨跌8.9%7.1%5.4%38.6%32.4%-4.5%1.1%超额收益-0.6%2.3%-0.2%13.4%15.8%2.5%-1.3%专用设备收益涨跌8.9%9.1%6.9%30.7%22.9%-9.1%7.8%超额收益-0.6%4.3%1.4%5.6%6.4%-2.1%5.3%工业金属收益涨跌12.6%1.0%-0.6%26.4%14.4%9.9%19.2%超额收益3.1%-3.7%-6.1%1.3%-2.2%16.9%16.7%化学原料收益涨跌8.9%4.4%6.5%31.7%15.4%0.7%13.3%超额收益-0.6%-0.4%1.0%6.6%-1.2%7.7%10.9%化学制品收益涨跌9.2%6.1%8.3%26.0%18.1%-5.9%5.0%超额收益-0.3%1.4%2.8%0.9%1.6%1.1%2.6%特钢收益涨跌13.3%-0.8%-0.1%33.0%22.8%0.1%3.0%超额收益3.8%-5.6%-5.7%7.9%6.3%7.1%0.5%告8告8/10煤炭开采收益涨跌14.1%4.2%-0.8%14.9%11.2%14.1%25.8%超额收益4.6%-0.6%-6.3%-10.2%-5.4%21.1%23.4%房屋建设收益涨跌12.2%7.9%0.8%10.2%17.3%8.5%12.4%超额收益2.7%3.2%-4.8%-14.9%0.7%15.5%10.0%普钢收益涨跌10.9%2.0%-1.7%16.2%12.8%30.0%11.3%超额收益1.4%-2.8%-7.3%-8.9%-3.7%37.0%8.8%农化制品收益涨跌3.9%2.8%7.9%22.5%20.3%-0.1%14.1%超额收益-5.6%-2.0%2.4%-2.6%3.8%7.0%11.7%油服工程收益涨跌2.1%-2.6%8.1%25.6%4.5%5.0%28.8%超额收益-7.4%-7.3%2.6%0.5%-12.1%12.1%26.4%自动化设备收益涨跌7.8%11.8%13.9%30.5%17.9%-14.4%2.2%超额收益-1.7%7.1%8.4%5.4%1.4%-7.4%-0.2%工程机械收益涨跌12.4%14.8%2.5%30.8%25.5%-17.9%-4.2%超额收益2.9%10.0%-3.0%5.7%8.9%-10.9%-6.6%橡胶收益涨跌7.2%4.1%7.7%24.4%17.0%-4.0%6.0%超额收益-2.3%-0.7%2.2%-0.7%0.5%3.0%3.6%玻璃玻纤收益涨跌6.5%2.2%6.1%35.8%26.2%-9.4%1.5%超额收益-3.0%-2.5%0.6%10.7%9.6%-2.4%-0.9%房地产开发收益涨跌7.3%3.0%1.2%23.0%18.5%9.7%2.5%超额收益-2.2%-1.8%-4.4%-2.1%1.9%16.7%0.1%收益涨跌7.4%2.4%6.0%17.9%8.9%12.2%9.1%超额收益-2.1%-2.3%0.5%-7.2%-7.7%19.2%6.7%焦炭收益涨跌2.6%-4.0%2.8%25.9%13.2%4.0%15.9%超额收益-6.9%-8.8%-2.7%0.8%-3.3%11.1%13.5%航空机场收益涨跌3.3%6.8%3.9%21.1%11.1%10.6%3.7%超额收益-6.1%2.1%-1.7%-4.0%-5.5%17.6%1.2%物流收益涨跌6.0%2.5%7.7%26.0%13.4%-6.9%3.4%超额收益-3.5%-2.3%2.2%0.9%-3.1%0.1%1.0%铁路公路收益涨跌9.7%3.3%3.3%14.8%6.8%6.1%7.3%超额收益0.2%-1.5%-2.3%-10.3%-9.7%13.2%4.9%轨交设备收益涨跌6.6%4.9%2.7%12.5%13.4%5.1%3.5%超额收益-2.9%0.2%-2.8%-12.6%-3.2%12.1%1.1%化学纤维收益涨跌8.4%2.2%5.3%27.5%13.3%-15.6%7.8%超额收益-1.1%-2.6%-0.3%2.4%-3.3%-8.6%5.4%城商行收益涨跌9.9%-0.7%-1.0%11.4%6.7%3.0%2.7%超额收益0.4%-5.4%-6.6%-13.7%-9.9%10.0%0.3%炼化贸易收益涨跌13.3%-2.2%3.4%16.8%8.4%-