橡胶月报：橡胶对冲操作多头有机会-20220805-五矿期货-

橡胶对冲操作多头有机会20220805能源化工组张正270766：Z0003000+橡胶偏多亮点难寻=行情胶着+橡胶偏多亮点难寻=行情胶着•供应：正常预期。•截至2022年7月29日，(交易所橡胶和20号胶，加上青岛橡胶)库存(万吨)73.88(0.00)•小结：季节性利多因素。RURU209。积极的投资者，带止损短多RU2301。后面几十页的数据，一般投资者可泛读，有兴趣深入研究的可以精读。周报主要更新产业链数据，制表数据量大。有时候出差调研途中，周报会延迟或取消。另外周报上的观点更新比较慢，如果需要关注我们的观点的最新更新，可以微信关注五矿期货微服务公众号，每天早上开盘前有我们各品种的最新观点和关键数据更新。(本页开工率数据来源于卓创，和WIND数据小有区别，趋势相同，差别不大。)全乳胶基本面评估估值驱动基差(元/吨)胶农毛利润率算产量(万吨)轮胎厂开工率(%)库存(万吨)-2306%58.67(3.11)73.88(0.00)01000对复合胶升水胶农积极性高于2021年产能大，产量大增景气震荡预期库存变化不大橡胶供应方面，预期平稳。泰国天气权重抬升。需求因下游轮胎厂复工而预期好转。出口订单因国外有衰退预期而降低。预计未来橡胶震荡，或有反弹。09合约升水低。RU01点位参考12000-13800。上涨的条件是：超跌反弹。宏观情绪20号胶基本面评估估值驱动胶农毛利润率测算产能/产量存-14458.67(3.11)73.88(0.00)00000胶农积极性高于2021年产能大，产量没有大增景气震荡预期库存变化不大橡胶供应方面，预期平稳。泰国天气权重抬升。需求因下游轮胎厂复工而预期好转。出口订单因国外有衰退预期而降低。东南亚胶进入生产旺季。但泰国进入台风季节，容易引发天气利多。NR点位参考10500-12500。上涨的条件是：超跌反弹。宏观情绪利多。20172018201920202021橡胶主力202210000500001月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月WIND807000400020172018201920202021沪胶/日胶20221月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月WIND 20162017201820192020沪胶/1.09-20号胶20223500300025001500100050001月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月WIND20182018020 20214000350030002500150010005000-5001月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月WIND20172018201920202021胶/原油20227000400001月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月WIND20172018201920202021标胶/原油202298765432101月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月WIND20172018201920202021沪胶/新加坡标胶202208040001月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月WIND90807000400020180202018020 20211月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月WIND0.40.3 0.20.15 0.10.05020172018201920202021胶/铜20221月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月WIND0050020172018201920202021胶/布原油20221月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月WIND7654321020172018201920202021胶/螺纹20221月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月5055020172018201920202021胶/铁矿20221月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月资料来源：WIND、五矿期货研究中心资料来源：WIND、五矿期货研究中心相当可观。且屡屡有移仓巨大的收益。87654321020172018201920202021胶/上证20221月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月WIND20172018201920202021RU/创业板综202298765432101月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月WIND8070004000 20172018201920202021全钢胎20221月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月WIND7000000 20172018201920202021半钢胎20221月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月WIND 20172018201920202021货车销量202260000050000040000030000020000001月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月WIND令货车商用车景气度高增速，后期预期下降。影响配套轮胎下行。 20172018201920202021商用车202260000050000040000030000020000001月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月WIND 20172018201920202021货车胎出口吨20223500003000002500001500001000005000001月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月WIND图20：货车胎出口(千条) 20162017201820192020货车胎出口20221000080004000200001月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月WIND10090807010090807060504030201002520151050图21：橡胶进口(天然+合成)(万吨) 20162017201820192020橡胶进口20221月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月WIND降。图22：标准橡胶进口(万吨) 20162017201820192020标胶20221月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月WIND 鞋鞋部部1月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月4月中4月中5月6月4月初存青岛合计保税变化贸易变化青岛变化31813.0532.1845.23-1.02-1.11-2.1332613.0531.5444.590-0.64-0.6440211.6732.3344-1.380.79-0.5941011.2431.242.44-0.43-1.13-1.5641511.5231.4542.970.280.250.5342211.3231.442.72-0.2-0.05-0.2542911.1729.5940.76-0.15-1.81-1.9651410.928.7439.64-0.27-0.85-1.1252110.9129.7440.650.0111.0152810.8729.9940.86-0.040.250.2160310.629.6340.23-0.27-0.36-0.6361010.5428.9239.46-0.06-0.71-0.7761710.2728.9739.24-0.270.05-0.2262410.0928.7238.81-0.18-0.25-0.4370110.0528.7838.83-0.040.060.0270810.0228.4138.43-0.03-0.37-0.42022年06月，橡胶产量930.5千吨，同比3.00%，环比9.75%，累计5207千吨，累计同比1.10%。2022年06月，泰国产量358.3千吨，同比6.48%，环比7.28%，累计2250千吨，累计同比4.14%。2022年06月，印尼产量257.4千吨，同比2.96%，环比8.42%，累计1551千吨，累计同比1.76%。2022年06月，马来产量38千吨，同比-2.06%，环比35.71%，累计193千吨，累计同比-12.86%。2022年06月，越南产量90千吨，同比-3.02%，环比0.00%，累计367千吨，累计同比-22.38%。2022年06月，中国产量82.7千吨，同比-9.02%，环比3.76%，累计217千吨，累计同比-11.56%。2022年06月，橡胶出口858.9千吨，同比6.67%，环比8.31%，累计5069千吨，累计同比4.92%。2022年06月，泰国出口312.9千吨，同比2.89%，环比-5.35%，累计2136千吨，累计同比5.96%。2022年06月，印尼出口213.5千吨，同比8.98%，环比12.61%，累计1246千吨，累计同比-0.72%。2022年06月，马来出口96.9千吨，同比16.61%，环比5.56%，累计541千吨，累计同比-1.53%。2022年06月，越南出口167千吨，同比9.08%，环比56.37%，累计743千吨，累计同比8.34%。2022年06月，橡胶消费810.3千吨，同比9.57%，环比2.00%，累计4826千吨，累计同比2.08%。2022年06月，中国消费量489千吨，同比-0.41%，环比1.66%，累计2784千吨，累计同比-5.98%。橡胶产量1月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月年度合计年同比20181068.30937.10761.60966.20967.50901.101080.701100.201134.601138.501139.001035.9012230.700.0420191024.70952.30660.00928.50754.40946.501156.00992.60997.901158.801176.401214.9011963.00(0.02)2020886.50862.90757.80626.40770.70776.40969.90988.901062.001111.601173.201125.3011111.60(0.07)2021955.50866.90874.80740.90808.30903.401039.001116.001155.401185.101207.001189.7012042.000.082022998.90871.40754.60803.50847.80930.500.000.0020230.000.002018同比8.00%6.73%-5.45%28.40%8.32%-3.71%5.67%-3.53%2.76%4.19%0.65%0.74%0.00%0.00%2019同比-4.08%1.62%-13.34%-3.90%-22.03%5.04%6.97%-9.78%-12.05%1.78%3.28%17.28%0.00%0.00%2020同比-13.49%-9.39%14.82%-32.54%2.16%-17.97%-16.10%-0.37%6.42%-4.07%-0.27%-7.38%0.00%0.00%2021同比7.78%0.46%15.44%18.28%4.88%16.36%7.12%12.85%8.79%6.61%2.88%5.72%0.00%0.00%2022同比4.54%0.52%-13.74%8.45%4.89%3.00%0.00%0.00%2023同比0.00%0.00%2018环比3.89%-12.28%-18.73%26.86%0.13%-6.86%19.93%1.80%3.13%0.34%0.04%-9.05%0.00%0.00%2019环比-1.08%-7.07%-30.69%40.68%-18.75%25.46%22.13%-14.13%0.53%16.12%1.52%3.27%0.00%0.00%2020环比-27.03%-2.66%-12.18%-17.34%23.04%0.74%24.92%1.96%7.39%4.67%5.54%-4.08%0.00%0.00%2021环比-15.09%-9.27%0.91%-15.31%9.10%11.77%15.01%7.41%3.53%2.57%1.85%-1.43%0.00%0.00%2022环比-16.04%-12.76%-13.40%6.48%5.51%9.75%0.00%0.00%2023环比0.00%0.00%2018累计1068.302005.402767.003733.204700.705601.806682.507782.708917.3010055.8011194.8012230.700.000.002019累计1024.701977.002637.003565.504319.905266.406422.407415.008412.909571.7010748.1011963.000.000.002020累计886.501749.402507.203133.603904.304680.705650.606639.507701.508813.109986.3011111.600.000.002021累计955.501822.402697.203438.104246.405149.806188.807304.808460.209645.3010852.3012042.000.000.002022累计998.901870.302624.903428.404276.205206.700.000.002023累计0.000.002018累计同比8.00%7.40%3.53%8.99%8.85%6.62%6.46%4.93%4.65%4.59%4.18%3.88%0.00%0.00%2019累计同比-4.08%-1.42%-4.70%-4.49%-8.10%-5.99%-3.89%-4.72%-5.66%-4.81%-3.99%-2.19%0.00%0.00%2020累计同比-13.49%-11.51%-4.92%-12.11%-9.62%-11.12%-12.02%-10.46%-8.46%-7.93%-7.09%-7.12%0.00%0.00%2021累计同比7.78%4.17%7.58%9.72%8.76%10.02%9.52%10.02%9.85%9.44%8.67%8.37%0.00%0.00%2022累计同比4.54%2.63%-2.68%-0.28%0.70%1.10%0.00%0.00%2023累计同比0.00%0.00%泰国产量1月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月年度合计年同比2018504.40453.60269.30435.60377.50371.90440.10417.20429.50430.80445.90396.304972.100.122019462.90482.40221.90465.10219.50390.00509.10296.90296.40450.70450.90606.404852.20(0.02)2020338.10401.30356.40254.50363.10246.40342.60322.30372.00446.50466.10495.604404.90(0.09)2021376.90412.60437.00280.30317.10336.50405.90450.70449.80477.60485.90490.804921.100.122018同比13.27%44.74%5.90%106.54%26.81%20.39%20.41%-6.25%-4.56%1.36%-4.11%-11.54%0.00%0.00%2019同比-8.23%6.35%-17.60%6.77%-41.85%4.87%15.68%-28.84%-30.99%4.62%1.12%53.02%0.00%0.00%2020同比-26.96%-16.81%60.61%-45.28%65.42%-36.82%-32.70%8.56%25.51%-0.93%3.37%-18.27%0.00%0.00%2021同比11.48%2.82%22.62%10.14%-12.67%36.57%18.48%39.84%20.91%6.97%4.25%-0.97%0.00%0.00%-24.90%22.98%0.00%0.00%2018环比12.59%-10.07%-40.63%61.75%-13.34%-1.48%18.34%-5.20%2.95%0.30%3.51%-11.12%0.00%0.00%2019环比16.81%4.21%-54.00%109.60%-52.81%77.68%30.54%-41.68%-0.17%52.06%0.04%34.49%0.00%0.00%2020环比-44.24%18.69%-11.19%-28.59%42.67%-32.14%39.04%-5.93%15.42%20.03%4.39%6.33%0.00%0.00%2021环比-23.95%9.47%5.91%-35.86%13.13%6.12%20.62%11.04%-0.20%6.18%1.74%1.01%0.00%0.00%4%-2.70%-24.78%-3.10%0.00%0.00%2018累计504.40958.001227.301662.902040.402412.302852.403269.603699.104129.904575.804972.100.000.002019累计462.90945.301167.201632.301851.802241.802750.903047.803344.203794.904245.804852.200.000.002020累计338.10739.401095.801350.301713.401959.802302.402624.702996.703443.203909.304404.900.000.002021累计376.90789.501226.501506.801823.902160.402566.303017.003466.803944.404430.304921.100.000.002018累计同比13.27%26.27%21.15%35.87%34.10%31.78%29.89%23.80%19.67%17.46%14.94%12.26%0.00%0.00%2019累计同比-8.23%-1.33%-4.90%-1.84%-9.24%-7.07%-3.56%-6.78%-9.59%-8.11%-7.21%-2.41%0.00%0.00%2020累计同比-26.96%-21.78%-6.12%-17.28%-7.47%-12.58%-16.30%-13.88%-10.39%-9.27%-7.93%-9.22%0.00%0.00%2021累计同比11.48%6.78%11.93%11.59%6.45%10.24%11.46%14.95%15.69%14.56%13.33%11.72%0.00%0.00%-1.11%4.14%0.00%0.00%印尼产量1月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月年度合计年同比2018295.00298.10310.80335.00326.80249.60330.00320.00305.00295.00285.00280.003630.300.002019260.00258.10260.00280.00280.00260.00295.00295.00278.10290.20280.00265.003301.40(0.09)2020260.00265.00270.00240.00230.00240.00250.00260.00270.50259.40252.00240.403037.30(0.08)2021255.00255.50277.50250.00236.40250.00255.00260.00258.00260.50255.00250.003062.900.012018同比1.72%1.02%-3.06%6.45%1.49%-13.93%6.11%2.11%3.74%-2.51%-6.62%3.55%0.00%0.00%2019同比-11.86%-13.42%-16.34%-16.42%-14.32%4.17%-10.61%-7.81%-8.82%-1.63%-1.75%-5.36%0.00%0.00%2020同比0.00%2.67%3.85%-14.29%-17.86%-7.69%-15.25%-11.86%-2.73%-10.61%-10.00%-9.28%0.00%0.00%2021同比-1.92%-3.58%2.78%4.17%2.78%4.17%2.00%0.00%-4.62%0.42%1.19%3.99%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%2018环比9.10%1.05%4.26%7.79%-2.45%-23.62%32.21%-3.03%-4.69%-3.28%-3.39%-1.75%0.00%0.00%2019环比-7.14%-0.73%0.74%7.69%0.00%-7.14%13.46%0.00%-5.73%4.35%-3.51%-5.36%0.00%0.00%2020环比-1.89%1.92%1.89%-11.11%-4.17%4.35%4.17%4.00%4.04%-4.10%-2.85%-4.60%0.00%0.00%2021环比6.07%0.20%8.61%-9.91%-5.44%5.75%2.00%1.96%-0.77%0.97%-2.11%-1.96%0.00%0.00%19%9%77%0.00%0.00%2018累计295.00593.10903.901238.901565.701815.302145.302465.302770.303065.303350.303630.300.000.002019累计260.00518.10778.101058.101338.101598.101893.102188.102466.202756.403036.403301.400.000.002020累计260.00525.00795.001035.001265.001505.001755.002015.002285.502544.902796.903037.300.000.002021累计255.00510.50788.001038.001274.401524.401779.402039.402297.402557.902812.903062.900.000.002018累计同比1.72%1.37%-0.20%1.52%1.51%-0.93%0.09%0.35%0.71%0.39%-0.25%0.04%0.00%0.00%2019累计同比-11.86%-12.65%-13.92%-14.59%-14.54%-11.96%-11.76%-11.24%-10.98%-10.08%-9.37%-9.06%0.00%0.00%2020累计同比0.00%1.33%2.17%-2.18%-5.46%-5.83%-7.29%-7.91%-7.33%-7.67%-7.89%-8.00%0.00%0.00%2021累计同比-1.92%-2.76%-0.88%0.29%0.74%1.29%1.39%1.21%0.52%0.51%0.57%0.84%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%马来产量1月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月年度合计年同比201855.0063.2046.4035.7035.8041.4056.5062.9048.1051.2052.2055.00603.40(0.18)201976.1059.0050.1033.9044.5036.8060.1057.6061.7048.5053.0058.50639.800.06202066.3049.9034.5034.6021.0033.5041.8044.5046.2049.9042.6049.80514.60(0.20)202145.7049.8036.1023.0028.2038.8048.6042.9041.2043.1030.5041.70469.60(0.09)2018同比-15.25%-28.75%-43.00%-27.29%-18.64%-18.18%2.36%2.95%-7.85%-23.81%-11.07%-18.03%0.00%0.00%2019同比38.36%-6.65%7.97%-5.04%24.30%-11.11%6.37%-8.43%28.27%-5.27%1.53%6.36%0.00%0.00%2020同比-12.88%-15.42%-31.14%2.06%-52.81%-8.97%-30.45%-22.74%-25.12%2.89%-19.62%-14.87%0.00%0.00%2021同比-31.07%-0.20%4.64%-33.53%34.29%15.82%16.27%-3.60%-10.82%-13.63%-28.40%-16.27%0.00%0.00%13%-43.78%-22.16%-2.17%71%6%0.00%0.00%2018环比-18.03%14.91%-26.58%-23.06%0.28%15.64%36.47%11.33%-23.53%6.44%1.95%5.36%0.00%0.00%2019环比38.36%-22.47%-15.08%-32.34%31.27%-17.30%63.32%-4.16%7.12%-21.39%9.28%10.38%0.00%0.00%2020环比13.33%-24.74%-30.86%0.29%-39.31%59.52%24.78%6.46%3.82%8.01%-14.63%16.90%0.00%0.00%2021环比-8.23%8.97%-27.51%-36.29%22.61%37.59%25.26%-11.73%-3.96%4.61%-29.23%36.72%0.00%0.00%16.31%-42.27%-19.93%24.44%0.00%0.00%2018累计55.00118.20164.60200.30236.10277.50334.00396.90445.00496.20548.40603.400.000.002019累计76.10135.10185.20219.10263.60300.40360.50418.10479.80528.30581.30639.800.000.002020累计66.30116.20150.70185.30206.30239.80281.60326.10372.30422.20464.80514.600.000.002021累计45.7095.50131.60154.60182.80221.60270.20313.10354.30397.40427.90469.600.000.00-15.25%-23.05%-29.96%-29.50%-28.04%-26.72%-23.02%-19.82%-18.68%-19.24%-18.53%-18.48%0.00%0.00%2019累计同比38.36%14.30%12.52%9.39%11.65%8.25%7.93%5.34%7.82%6.47%6.00%6.03%0.00%0.00%-12.88%-13.99%-18.63%-15.43%-21.74%-20.17%-21.89%-22.00%-22.41%-20.08%-20.04%-19.57%0.00%0.00%2021累计同比-31.07%-17.81%-12.67%-16.57%-11.39%-7.59%-4.05%-3.99%-4.83%-5.87%-7.94%-8.74%0.00%0.00%13%90%-20.52%-17.79%-15.15%-12.86%0.00%0.00%中国产量中国产量1月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月年度合计年同比20180.600.0010.9055.0091.7076.5085.6095.20110.10117.80121.2053.80818.400.0320190.900.008.1039.3071.6086.90100.10107.90114.50123.00124.0036.00812.30(0.01)20200.600.003.9015.1040.5069.6085.7097.90110.1088.70125.6055.00692.70(0.15)20210.600.009.7057.8085.8090.90104.60116.70125.2089.40127.5058.50866.700.252018同比-81.82%87.93%33.50%16.67%-21.70%-18.01%-10.44%-3.08%14.26%14.34%41.58%0.00%0.00%2019同比50.00%-25.69%-28.55%-21.92%13.59%16.94%13.34%4.00%4.41%2.31%-33.09%0.00%0.00%2020同比-33.33%-51.85%-61.58%-43.44%-19.91%-14.39%-9.27%-3.84%-27.89%1.29%52.78%0.00%0.00%2021同比0.00%148.72%282.78%111.85%30.60%22.05%19.20%13.71%0.79%1.51%6.36%0.00%0.00%-11.34%-22.49%-7.11%2%0.00%0.00%2018环比-98.42%404.59%66.73%-16.58%11.90%11.21%15.65%6.99%2.89%-55.61%0.00%0.00%2019环比-98.33%385.19%82.19%21.37%15.19%7.79%6.12%7.42%0.81%-70.97%0.00%0.00%2020环比-98.33%287.18%168.21%71.85%23.13%14.24%12.46%-19.44%41.60%-56.21%0.00%0.00%2021环比-98.91%495.88%48.44%5.94%15.07%11.57%7.28%-28.59%42.62%-54.12%0.00%0.00%80%420.93%77.90%0.00%0.00%2018累计0.600.6011.5066.50158.20234.70320.30415.50525.60643.40764.60818.400.000.002019累计0.900.909.0048.30119.90206.80306.90414.80529.30652.30776.30812.300.000.002020累计0.600.604.5019.6060.10129.70215.40313.30423.40512.10637.70692.700.000.002021累计0.600.6010.3068.10153.90244.80349.40466.10591.30680.70808.20866.700.000.002018累计同比-81.82%-81.82%26.37%32.21%22.73%3.57%-3.23%-4.99%-4.59%-1.62%0.61%2.56%0.00%0.00%2019累计同比50.00%50.00%-21.74%-27.37%-24.21%-11.89%-4.18%-0.17%0.70%1.38%1.53%-0.75%0.00%0.00%-33.33%-33.33%-50.00%-59.42%-49.87%-37.28%-29.81%-24.47%-20.01%-21.49%-17.85%-14.72%0.00%0.00%2021累计同比0.00%0.00%128.89%247.45%156.07%88.74%62.21%48.77%39.66%32.92%26.74%25.12%0.00%0.00%-9.71%-20.56%-13.06%-11.56%0.00%0.00%橡胶出口1月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月年度合计年同比2018872.20763.80730.40927.30886.10790.70901.50932.50832.80930.20917.50822.2010307.20(0.01)2019858.10774.70816.80749.60756.30725.80844.50853.40752.40853.10879.50920.109784.30(0.05)2020835.00819.10698.00616.50603.30761.60853.40864.00830.30917.00894.40948.109640.70(0.01)2021823.80807.90916.70777.40700.00805.20859.30850.20861.70921.60940.101024.6010288.500.072022926.80780.60875.60833.90793.00858.900.000.0020230.000.002018同比8.00%-3.32%-14.11%24.25%12.94%8.57%1.98%-5.26%-5.48%-1.63%-5.99%-21.52%0.00%0.00%2019同比-1.62%1.43%11.83%-19.16%-14.65%-8.21%-6.32%-8.48%-9.65%-8.29%-4.14%11.91%0.00%0.00%2020同比-2.69%5.73%-14.54%-17.76%-20.23%4.93%1.05%1.24%10.35%7.49%1.69%3.04%0.00%0.00%2021同比-1.34%-1.37%31.33%26.10%16.03%5.72%0.69%-1.60%3.78%0.50%5.11%8.07%0.00%0.00%2022同比2.50%-3.38%-4.48%7.27%3.29%6.67%0.00%0.00%2023同比0.00%0.00%2018环比-16.74%-12.43%-4.37%26.96%-4.44%-10.77%14.01%3.44%-10.69%11.70%-1.37%-10.39%0.00%0.00%2019环比4.37%-9.72%5.43%-8.23%0.89%-4.03%16.35%1.05%-11.84%13.38%3.09%4.62%0.00%0.00%2020环比-9.25%-1.90%-14.78%-11.68%-2.14%26.24%12.05%1.24%-3.90%10.44%-2.46%6.00%0.00%0.00%2021环比-13.11%-1.93%13.47%-15.20%-9.96%15.03%6.72%-1.06%1.35%6.95%2.01%8.99%0.00%0.00%2022环比-9.55%-15.77%12.17%-4.76%-4.90%8.31%0.00%0.00%2023环比0.00%0.00%2018累计872.201636.002366.403293.704179.804970.505872.006804.507637.308567.509485.0010307.200.000.002019累计858.10