化工-行业周报：安全生产督导检查持续开展继续重点关注化企核心资产MDI、TDI、纯碱、BDO、己内酰胺价格上涨

证券研究报告工.853.22工7.17昆股份3.92技0.700.75金禾实业3.772.572.541.532.902.99斯特3.843.15相关报告《【兴证化工】基础化工行业周报——《加快非粮生物基材料创新发展三年行动方案》印发，势(20230110-20230116)》hangzhiyangxyzqcomcnS03勋iumenglanxyzqcomcnS6投资要点工有限公司烷基化装置在维修过程中发生泄漏爆炸着火事故，造成13人报，强调各地区、有关部门和企业要进一步扎实推进危化品安全风险治理各项任务落地落实，立即组织开展化工装置设备带“病”运行专项排查整治。要全面开展安全风险排查，压实安全生产责任，坚决遏制重特大事格局优化，国内技术领先、安环投入及管理优异、管理水平先进的化工企业有望受益。22Q4主动管理型公募基金重仓持股中基础化工持仓市值占比5.31%(季度0.22pcts，季度同比-0.73pcts)，石油石化持仓市值占比1.20%(季度pctspcts品盈利修复预期较强的背景下，估值已跌至较低水平，以龙头公司周期底部业持续关银光12万吨装置重启推迟；上海科思创由于设备方面的原因降负运行；重启，TDI供应紧张。需求方面，下游刚需采购为主。当前国内外多套海巴中国化工品价格指数(CCPI)：本周CCPI较上周下跌0.3%，较上月同大的产品：气化焦(山西)，+26%；丙烷(华东冷冻CFR)，现货，-9%；聚醚胺(D230)，-5%；正丁醇(华东)，-3%；二氯甲烷(华⚫风险提示：化工产品需求不达预期的风险，国际油价大幅下跌的风请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明行业周报请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-2-疫情缓解，品价格与价差的修复。建议关注桐昆股份、新凤鸣。农药/化肥：国内“二十大”报告再度重申粮食安全的重要性，国内农求，从农化产业链看，磷肥原材料磷矿石价格尚处高位，磷矿-磷肥一蟒、兴发集团。农药方面，安环收紧下农药行业集中度逐渐提高，头部企业新一轮产能投放在即，我们建议关注农药行业内具备领先工程化技球化渠道的制剂企业。着全球经济刺激退潮，原料需求边际回落，其价格有望持续降低。海运端，2022年以来，海运供需错配缓解，全球海运费出现明显回落，未利水平有望迎来持续改善，国内头部企业产能扩张迅速，抢占全球市场份额，有望迎来行业修复与自身成长的共振，投资布局价值凸显。重点段执行，沸石、蜂窝陶瓷等相关产品有望持续放量。关注动力电池电解液龙头天赐材料、新宙邦，正极材料龙头当升科技，光伏胶膜全球龙头化工新材料原创技术平台昊华科技，国内领先的半导体光刻胶龙头彤程新材，贯通芯片制造、封装的电子材料平台型公司雅克科技，催化材料领先企业国瓷材料、万润股份，风电叶片固化剂细分领域龙头阿科力、濮阳惠成。化学(福建)新装置低负荷运行，浙江请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-3-某工厂负荷尚未提升，其他工厂开工较为稳定。海外科思创德国的MDI装置由于不可抗力原因短期内无法重启，其他装置均保持正常运行。因物流输运受阻，部分工厂对外货源释放缩量，场内现货流通紧俏。需求拿货，采购积极性较为乐观。本周纯碱(轻质,华东)和纯碱(重质,华东)价厂订单较好且开工负荷有所提升，下游按需采购跟进。成本方面，纯苯价格上涨，对己内酰胺价格存一定支撑。本周己内酰胺(华东)价格周环O延续停车，四川天华、万华化学因天然气紧张降负荷生产；本周BDO行业开工率位成交。需求方面，下游维持刚需跟进。本周BDO(华东)价格上涨投资策略年的化工行业投资应自下而上聚焦于自身存确定性成长的公司/行业。步强化。聚焦安全边际与成长性，把握周期下行期化企核心资产的低估请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-4-值机会。重点推荐：万华化学、华鲁恒升、扬农化工、恒力石化、荣盛石化。”制造材料国产化率仍较低，存在较大国产替代的长线机遇；同时美国对新能源材料方面，国家相关政策要求奠定国内风电、光伏等新能源需瓶颈、储能系统经济性提升驱动需求爆发，风电、光伏、储能消费化学品、新能源(风电、光伏、储能)材料。播种面积的稳定带来的农化行业景气的可持续，高盈利驱动农药华峰化学、恒力石化、卫星化学、金禾实业、新和成、国瓷材料、东材科技、昊华科技、荣盛石化、东方盛虹、福斯特、天赐材料、新宙实不力的风险。请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-5- 录9- 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-6- 3、涤纶库存(天) -32-4、锦纶库存(天) -32-5、粘胶库存(天) -32- 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-7- 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-8- 行业周报请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-9-表1、重点跟踪化工产品价格与价差大类产品单单位更新日期本周上周周涨幅上月同期月涨幅上季度同期季度涨幅年初年内涨幅指数中国化工品价格指数CCPI---2023/01/2748734887-0.3%47981.6%4885-0.2%47821.9%人民币对美元汇率(中间价)2023/01/276.77026.77020.0%6.9646-2.8%7.2555-6.7%6.8912人民币对欧元汇率(中间价)---2023/01/277.33617.33610.0%7.42297.09553.4%7.2535美元指数2023/01/27101.92102.00103.49110.78-8.0%103.91S&P500--美元/盎司2023/01/274070.563972.612.5%3839.506.0%3770.558.0%3895.084.5%黄金现货价2023/01/271932.451924.900.4%1813.756.5%1674.4015.4%1852.204.3%CRB商品价格指数---2023/01/27554.33554.330.0%554.63549.280.9%554.330.0%货代运价指数CFFI:中国-欧洲2023/01/27324332430.0%32430.0%4223-23.2%32430.0%货代运价指数CFFI:中国-北美--2023/01/27410141010.0%41010.0%471441010.0%WTI期货(主连合约)美元/桶2023/01/2781.0180.330.8%78.403.3%92.6173.6710.0%Brent期货(主连合约)美元美元/桶美元/桶2023/01/2786.1386.160.0%82.264.7%98.5778.699.5%WTI期货(次月合约)2023/01/2781.2880.610.8%78.503.5%87.18-6.8%73.9210.0%Brent期货(次月合约)美元美元/桶美元/桶2023/01/2787.2886.3183.464.6%93.07-6.2%78.8210.7%WTI期货(第12月合约)2023/01/2777.2077.63-0.6%75.132.8%78.7072.616.3%Brent期货(第12月合约)美元美元/桶2023/01/2779.1079.100.0%81.89-3.4%88.1079.100.0%WTI现货美元/桶2023/01/2778.3978.390.0%78.40.0%88.1776.931.9%Brent现货美元美元/桶2023/01/2783.0283.020.0%83.060.0%97.0181.222.2%原油Dubai现货美元/桶2023/01/2778.1778.170.0%78.0691.3476.512.2%Cinta现货美元美元/桶口2023/01/2777.2777.270.0%79.03-2.2%94.5176.471.0%美国原油钻井数2023/01/27609613-0.7%621613-0.7%618美国商业原油库存千千桶美元/桶2023/01/274485484396072.0%4189524368302.7%4206466.6%Brent-WTI期货主连合约价差2023/01/275.125.833.8632.6%5.965.022.0%WTI主连合约-次月合约美元美元/桶美元/桶2023/01/27-0.27-0.28--0.1-5.43105.0%-0.25-Brent主连合约-次月合约2023/01/27-0.15--5.50120.9%-0.13-WTI主连合约-第12月合约美元美元/桶美元/桶2023/01/273.812.7%3.2716.5%13.91-72.6%1.06259.4%Brent主连合约-第12月合约2023/01/277.037.06-0.4%0.371799.5%10.48-32.9%-0.41-三地原油简单10天平移均价美元美元/桶2023/01/2779.4979.010.6%79.76-0.3%92.6779.210.3%中国92#汽油(镇海炼化)元/吨2023/01/27924992490.0%92010.5%10197-9.3%9466-2.3%中国0#柴油(镇海炼化)元元/吨2023/01/27770077000.0%76550.6%85557895-2.5%美国87#汽油美分/加仑2023/01/272432430.0%2401.2%2752430.0%美国柴油(纽约)美分美分/加仑2023/01/273163160.0%331-4.6%472-33.0%3160.0%炼油欧洲ARA柴油(CIF)美元/吨2023/01/278888880.0%947-6.3%10788880.0%亚洲柴油(新加坡)美元美元/桶2023/01/2713130.0%14-0.8%25-9.8%130.0%92#汽油新加坡FOB美元/桶2023/01/2703994.2%9015.0%958.3%8619.6%含硫0.05%柴油新加坡FOB美元美元/桶2023/01/2720172.9%145.5%30-7.7%0711.6%航空煤油新加坡FOB美元/桶2023/01/2722183.9%174.9%211.6%0912.8%行业周报请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-10-新加坡石脑油新加坡石脑油FOB美元/桶日本石脑油CFR日本石脑油CFR美分元/吨元/吨丙丙烷(华东冷冻CFR)美元/吨丁烷(华东冷冻CFR丁烷(华东冷冻CFR)元元/吨正丁烷(山东)基础油(150SN基础油(150SN,东北)120#溶剂油(华东120#溶剂油(华东)元/吨混调高硫混调高硫180CST(华东)558#半炼石蜡(华南)元/吨重交沥青(华南)元/重交沥青(华南)改性沥青(华南改性沥青(华南)元/吨国内主国内主营汽油出厂价-原油价差美元/吨国内主营柴油出厂价-原油价国内主营柴油出厂价-原油价差国内主营成品油价-原油价差美元/吨美元/吨国国际汽油市场价-原油价差国际柴油市场价-原油价差美元/吨美元/吨国际成品油市国际成品油市场价-WTI原油价差美元/吨美元/吨美元/吨国际成品油市场价-Brent原油价差新加坡新加坡FOB汽油价-Brent原油价差新加坡FOB柴油价-Brent原油价差美元/吨美元/吨新新加坡FOB航空煤油价-Brent原油价差美湾WTI321价差美元/吨美元/桶美湾美湾Brent321价差亚洲Minas321价差美元/桶美元/桶中东中东Dubai321价差中国沥青开工率美元/桶%美美国炼厂开工率%2023/01/2775.2273.712.0%66.1313.7%73.572.2%65.5314.8%2023/01/277126863.8%64510.3%6893.3%63012.9%22023/01/272023/01/2777776030777757300.0%717155309.2%8856100777756300.0%5.2%9.0%22023/01/272023/01/2787787787775275276716.6%6262263741.0%6868768727.7%6161262743.3%14.3%37.7%27.7%39.9%2023/01/27566152986.9%510310.9%55202.6%489415.7%2023/01/27920092000.0%92000.0%940092000.0%22023/01/272023/01/277740058407720057902.8%7720055602.8%81081006520-8.6%7725056300.9%5.0%3.7%22023/01/272023/01/2785085004155850850041050.0%850850039050.0%850850046550.0%850850039550.0%1.2%6.4%2023/01/27527552251.0%50255.0%5700-7.5%50753.9%2023/01/27206.50206.28205.940.3%166.0324.4%273.81-24.6%22023/01/272023/01/27112.17112.17102.91111.95111.95102.790.2%114.60114.60102.69667.2381.9966.8%178.45178.45137.921%0.2%25.5%-25.4%22023/01/272023/01/27178.57178.57299.36178.34178.34299.13198.03198.03374.47-9.8%193.01193.01671.78-7.5%234.37234.37355.16-23.8%1%-55.4%22023/01/272023/01/27170.99170.99151.02173.64173.64150.91192.34192.34177.28290.24290.24266.991%199.62199.62180.04-43.4%22023/01/272023/01/27186.40186.40208.46152.66152.66184.36106.57106.57193.3174.9%29.529.55186.83530.9%105.81105.81175.4876.2%7.8%11.6%18.8%2023/01/27284.65249.46269.825.5%176.7561.0%235.032023/01/2732.7632.760.0%30.5839.7630.582023/01/2728.0728.070.0%25.948.2%31.00-9.5%25.948.2%2023/01/2720.4620.460.0%15.8329.2%6.86198.4%15.8329.2%22023/01/272023/01/271919.0328.771919.0332.810.0%1818.5140.292.8%1111.7455.3762.2%1919.0338.760.0%-28.6%-48.0%-25.8%2023/01/2786.1085.300.9%92.00-6.4%90.60-5.0%79.608.2%天然气美国HenryHub期货(主连合约)美元/MMBtu英国NBP现货(远期合约)便便士/Therm美国HenryHub现货美元/MMBtu美国N.Y.Hub现货美元美元/MMBtu美元/MMBtuGPL现货美元美元/MMBtuTTF现货欧元/兆瓦时TTF期货(次月合约)欧元欧元/兆瓦时美元/MMBtu中国中国LNG现货(华北)元/吨美美国天然气库存十亿立方英尺2023/01/272.873.224.561%5.98-52.0%3.74-23.3%22023/01/272023/01/27423.478423.4780.0%723.74204.45318.3%423.4780.0%0.0%-7.0%-21.9%0.0%22023/01/272023/01/272.582.58617.952.582.58617.950.0%31.831.820.39-91.9%1.1.6913.1753.0%2.582.58617.950.0%0.0%36.3%0.0%22023/01/272023/01/2722.122.1667.7922.122.1667.790.0%22.422.4184220.575.0522.122.1667.790.0%0.0%-9.7%0.0%22023/01/272023/01/27727219.24727221.090.0%882.627.0712124.129.01-42.0%727221.080.0%-8.7%-28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