国际商务谈判 第三章

Chapter3

Preparation

“SorryMr.Smith,asyouraccountant,Ihaven’tpreparedforthisnegotiation.”I. CollectingInformation

“Itwouldbeabsolutelydisastrousforustogointonegotiationnotknowinginadvancewhattheothersidewasgoingtopropose"

---HenryKissinger

基辛格

(FormerUSSecretaryofState)

Summitmeeting

最高首脑峰会

Knowledgeispowerandthemoreknowledgeonesideisabletoaccumulateabouttheother,thebetterchancethatsidehasforvictory.Withoutinformationweriskourproposals beingaimless,possibly landinganywhereWithinformationwehaveanincreased likelihoodourproposals willhitthebullseye1. Functions

Negotiationinformationreferstoalltheobjectivedescriptionoftheconditions,circumstances,specificationsthatcloselyrelatedtonegotiationactivities.Basistosetforthnegotiationstrategies.TocontroltheprocessofnegotiationNegotiationinformationisthemediaofcommunicationbetweenthetwoparties.2. Maincontentsofinformationgathering

Qualificationandcreditstatusstatusquo:theexistingstateofaffairs现状annualturnover年营业额word-of-mouth口碑fixedassets固定资产currentassets流动资产cashflow现金流量operatingcapability经营能力contributionratios投资/出资比重(2)Negotiationrepresentatives①TypesofthemerchantCASE:Aneatfreak②DeadlinesCASE:Tradefair③Knowtheotherparty’sdegreeoftrustonus④ Toevaluateyourcounterpart’sactualpowerinnegotiation.Importanceofthecontentsofthedeal.Degreeofsatisfaction.CompetitiveenvironmentintwopartiesInformationgatheringofacertainindustry/line.ReputationsandinfluencesTheirreactionstotimingTacticsandstrategiesinnegotiation.SourcesofPowerinNegotiationsa.Legitimatepower合法力(Video2,14:44)TitlesinfluencepeopleTogetmorecontrol,youshouldmakepeoplecometoyoutonegotiatethantodobusinessintheirterritoryPositioning定位inthemarketplace,anykindofpositioninggivesyoulegitimatepowerinnegotiation.“YoudowhatIsaybecauseI’mtheboss-that’swhy!”“Likeitornot-that’sthelaw.”b.Rewardpower奖赏力Anytimeyouperceivesomeoneisabletorewardyou,youhavegiventhemthepowertointimidate恫吓you.---thisfeeingisentirelysubjective.Youarethebestinthebusiness,theycan’tdoanybetterthanyou.Ifyouarewillingtoputyourpersonalreputationandexpertiseonthelinetosolvethatbuyer’sproblems,theyarenotrewardingyou,youarerewardingthem.Whenyousurelybelievethatyouarerewardingthebuyernottheotherwayontheround,you’llfeelconfidentanddemandingallthebusiness.Theotherpartycanofcoursetrytouserewardpowertoinfluenceyou,butwhenyourecognizetherewardpower,theirabilityofcontrollingyougoesaway,andallowsyoumoreconfidenceinnegotiation.“Heboughthiswayin…”“Dowhateverhesays-you’llbegladyoudid.”c.Coercivepower[

kəu′ə:siv

]威胁力，强迫力Anytimeyouperceivesomeoneisabletopunishyou,theyhavepowertointimidateyou.Oneofthestrongestpunishmentweknowisthepowertoembarrasspeople.Businessisnomorethannumbersgame.Thefeelingofrewardingorpunishingshouldgoaway,weshouldhavemoreconfidenceinnegotiating.“Shesaidshewouldjustsueme…”“Ifyoucontinuetomakethesemistakes-atveryleastitmeansademotion.”d.Reverentpower敬畏力Whenyouwanttoinfluencepeople,youshouldprojectconsistentvalues.表现一致的价值观Youlikeandadmireconsistentbehaviorinyourcustomers,theylikeandadmiretheminyou.Ifyou’rewillingtotakeastandforyourprinciples,especiallyintheperiodofriskingfinancialloss,you’vebeentrustingtheotherperson,andthey’llloveyouforever.Whenyouprojectreverentpower,buyersnoticeit.Theywouldadmireandrespecttheconsistentsetofvalues,anditgivesyouinfluenceoverthem.e.Charismaticpower号召力(26:55)“Peoplewouldjuststopwhattheyweredoingandwatchhimandlistentohimanddotheirbesttosupportwhateverhewanteddone.”“Itwasscary.ButIgottomyfeetandsaid,‘Youmuststopthis.’Andhedid.”f.Expertisepower专业力Whenyouprojecttopeoplethatyouhavemoreexpertisethanthem,youdeveloppoweroverthem.“Sheisthemostimportantemployeehere-sheistheonlypersonwhoreallyknowshowthedatasystemworks.”“Idon’tcareifthere’sahiringfreeze.Getmesomeonewhoknowsaboutinteroperability.”Reverentpower,CharismaticpowerandExpertisepowerarethethreemostimportantpowersthatcancontrolthenegotiation.Reverentpower:“Iwon’tdoanythingthatisnotinyourbestinterestregardlessofthegaintome.”Charismaticpower:shehasalikablepersonality.Expertisepower:sheknewmoreaboutitthanhedid.g.Situationpower情景力Situationpoweristhepowerthatcomesfrombeingintherightplaceattheright

time.Acustomerisdesperatetoplaceanorderandyouaretheonlysourceof

supplyintheshortterm.Havinganeffectivenetworkandkeepingintouchwithwhatishappeningcanincreaseyoursituationpower.h.Informationpower信息力Withholdinformationcouldbefairlyintimidating,becausewehatepeoplewithholdinformationfromus.Don’tletthemdothistoyou.Realizethattheyarejusttryingtolowerdownyourconfidence.“Hewasabletogetustheinformationweneededaboutwhatourcompetitionisplanningforthenextyear.”“Youthinkyou’rebeingpaidfairly?Letmetellyouwhatothersaremaking.”i. BATNA-thebestalternativetoanegotiatedagreement达成协议的最佳替代方案“Theyhadallthetimeintheworldandlotsofothercustomers-theydidnotneedus.”“TheworstthatcanhappenisthatIwilljustgobackwhereIcamefrom.Imightevenlikethat.”(3)

Marketquotations①P58synthesis[

'sinθisis

]综合Case:loan:贷款NetPresentValue(NPV)净现值softloan(借款国可用本国软货币偿还的)软贷款

②Consumptionneeds(consumers):consumerloyalty,whyconsumersareloyaltoacertainproduct?Reasons,motivations,theirplansandintentions?Wherethey’dliketobuy?Reactionstomarketingcampaigns,potentialneeds,rateofcoverageandmarketshareofaproduct,effectsfromcompetitions.CASE:Frenchcarvs.JapanesecarSeldomgrantloanstolocalbuyers.Ittookalongtimefordeliveryofspareparts. CitroenC4 HondaFit③Sales.(ifyouare)Seller:investigatethesalesofyourproductandsalesofthelikeproductsfromyourcompetitorsBuyer:salesvolumeinthepastyears,fluctuationinprices;itstrendinthelongrun;consumer’sneedsforthisproducts;theirrequirementsandcomments.④Informationoftheircompetitiveproducts:features,salesvolumes,prices, advertisingcampaigns,consumer’spreferencesandsoon.⑤Distributionchannel.CASE: Purchasingpatent. 1982,15-yearcompensationtrade 2.4millionMarks apatentexpiresin1989 1.3millionMarks(4)Lawsandcultures（P59)CASE: Machineswereboggeddowninmuddygroundduringrainyseason雨季.Howtogatherinformation?

Questioning(Video4:32:43)Relevantdepartmentsanddomesticconsultingcompanies美国科学情报研究所 路透社(4)Visitingallkindsoftradefairsinandabroad(5)Personnelandembassiesinforeigncountries(6)Materialspublishedorunpublished2.

Forming

theNegotiationTeamSelfTest

Toevaluateyourownmotivationstyle下面这些选项每个1分，加起来计算你的合作性分数 1-C,2-B,3-A,4-C,5-B,6-A,7-A,8-C,9-A下面这些选项每个1分，加起来计算你的竞争性分数 1-A,2-C,3-B,4-A,5-C,6-B,7-C,8-B,9-B下面这些选项每个1分，加起来计算你的自我性分数 1-B,2-A,3-C,4-B,5-A,6-C,7-B,8-A,9-C3.2.0 WhoqualifiesasanegotiatorTypesofnegotiatorSharks:

Sharksbelievein scarcity Theymoveinforthe kill Strivingtogetas muchastheycan, regardlessofthecost.Basicnature:takeoverortradeoff(tochoosebetweenadesirableoranacceptabledeal)Characteristics:

a. atendencytousecrisestoconfusethe otherparty.

b. assumetheyalwayshavetheonly possiblesolutiontoanynegotiation.Ifyoufindyourselfnegotiatingwithashark ------constantlyonguard(2)Carp

Believeinscarcity. Believethatina negotiation,theycan neverbethewinners. Theyfocustheir effortsonnotlosing whattheycurrently have.Donotlikeanytypeofconfrontation.Responseinnegotiatingistogiveinorgetout.Ifyoufindyourselfnegotiatinglikeacarp ------concentrateonraisingyourlevelofaspiration(3)Dolphins

Idealnegotiator. Whendolphinsdo notgetwhatthey want,theyquickly andpreciselyalter theirbehaviorsin sometimesingenious wayinpursuitof whattheyareafter.Believeinbothpotentialscarcityandpotentialabundance.Ifonestrategyisnotsuccessful,dolphinsrespondwithotherpossibilities.Theywilltakeoverwhen: * Timeislimitedoraspecificoutcomeis crucial.

* Therelationshipwiththeotherpartyis oflittleimportanceandaspecific outcomeiscritical.

* Appropriateretaliationisnecessary.

Theywilltradeoffwhen:

* Timeisshort.

* Theissueistrivial.

* Theycarealotabouttherelationship withtheotherparty.

* Itbecomesapparentthattheotherparty willnotcooperate.

Theywillgiveinwhen:

* Theissueistrivialandtherelationshipis crucial.

* Itiswiseto“buytime.”

* Theydiscoverthattheyarewrong.

Theywillgetoutwhen:

* Theoutcomedoesnotmattermuch.

* Morepressingneedsexist.

* Theyneedtimetogathermore information.

* Theiremotionsneedtimetocool.

Dolphinshavefourkeycharacteristics:

Theyplayaninfiniteratherthanafinitegame.

Theyavoidunnecessaryconflictbycooperatingaslongastheotherpartydoeslikewise.

Theyrespondpromptlytoa“mean”movebyretaliatingproperly.

Whilequicktoretaliate,dolphinsarealsoquicktoforgive.

Summary: Unlikesharks,whospendthemajorityoftheirtimetryingtocontroltheircounterpartsandexpecttoconcludeanynegotiationwithadefinitewinnerandloser,dolphinsspendthemajorityoftheirtimebuildingtrustandrapport.Knowingthatnegotiationsareusuallymostsuccessfulwhenbothparties’needsaremet,theyconsidertheotherparty’sgoalsandfosteranatmosphereofcooperation.Andwhenonenegotiatingstrategyfails,theytryotherstrategiestoenhancethepossibilityofachievingawin/winoutcome.People’sreactionstodifferenttypesofnegotiatorsCategoriesofnegotiators:Sharps---Liars谎言操纵者(whowoulddoanythingthatisfavorabletothemselves)Sharps---Inastrongpositionbuthonest强势但诚实(verypowerfulnegotiatorsseldomtellliesbutreluctanttoconcede.)Dolphins---Friendlyandreasonable和蔼可亲并通情达理(whoarereadytoconcede)Carps---懦弱派Whoarereadytoconcedeandcompromiseregardlessoftheirownsacrifice61%ofpeoplereactlikesharps

49%ofpeoplereactlikesharps35%ofpeoplechoosetocooperate30%ofpeoplereactlikesharps64%ofpeoplechoosetocooperate40%ofpeoplereactlikesharps27%ofpeoplechoosetocooperateTheresultsshowthatPeopletakethestrong/toughormanipulativestrategieswhennegotiatingwithliarsorsharp-likenegotiators.Peoplereacttocarps-likenegotiatorsfromtheaspectoftheopportunism.2.Whatshouldanegotiatorknow---"T”Shape“－”:horizontalbroadtechnicalknowledge:a. Thepolicyandrelativelawsandregulationsb. Theproductionandthedemandandsupplyofacertainproductinandabroadc.

Pricelevelandit’strendd. Therequirementofthequalityandtechnicalstandard

e. Beawareoftherelatedinternationalconventionsandpracticesf.Lawsandregulationsinthecounterpart’scountry,includingbusinesslaw,lawoftechnologytransfer,provisionsforforeignexchangecontrol,etc.g.Otherrelatedbusinessitems,suchasthetrendinthemarketortheexchangerateh.Stilldifferentculturesanddifferentcustoms

(2)“︱”:specificknowledgeintheparticularindustry:a.Specifications,usages,functions,oftheproductsb.Potentialinthemarketsc.Theabilitytodealwithaffairesarousedinthenegotiationd.TheabilitytocommunicateinacertainforeignlanguageTostudyalltherelevantcompaniesinthecounterpart’scountryKnowyourcounterpart’scharacteristicsbeforethenegotiation“knowtheenemyandknowyourself,andyoucanfightahundredbattleswithnodangerofdefeat”

3. TheroleofachiefnegotiatorSelf-controlandkeeptheteamontrackUsethespecificationsofeachmemberThisisouraccountThisisMr.Smith,heisouraccount,hehasbeenworkingforourcompanyfor15years,hehastheauthoritytoexamineandgrantcreditsvalues ＄1,500,000.(3)

Dealwithpressure(4)Decisionmaker

The“NormandyLanding”onJune6,1944DwightD.EisenhowerAirWarrior空降兵(5)

Technicallyastute …“Fromcupsofjadethatglowwithwineofgrapesatnight…”“Leaders,likehungrylions,mustlieinwaitfortherighttime—andthen,whenitisright,pounce.”—J.RichardHackman“Agoodleaderislikerain,calmingtheocean.”3.2.2 ThestaffingofthenegotiationteamCEOofabiotechstart-up

“Strengthinnumbers”?Thekeytotakingateamapproachtonegotiationistounderstandthepsychologyofhowteamswork.Comparisonwithsolonegotiators. Negotiatingteamscancreatenew opportunitiesforintegrativesolutions.

teams

vs.teams

teams

vs.solonegotiators

solonegotiatorsvs.solonegotiators

Thepresenceofatleastoneteamatthebargainingtableledtohigherjointgains.(2) Morepowerfulandmoreadvantaged thansolonegotiatorsunderhighly stressfulsituation.Withgreaternumberscomesasenseasecurity.(3)“Ifteammembersdisagreeonthekeyissues...theyareunlikelytotakeadvantageoftheirdifferingskills.”Familiaritywithoneanotherallowsteammemberstosharedivergentinformationandengageintheconstructiveconflictnecessarytofindasolution.Teamscanbeaneffectivepresenceatthebargainingtable,onlyifthemembersareabletouncover,leverage,andefficientlycoordinatetheirdiverseabilities.Jigsawpuzzle拼图2.Workingasateamcanbeparticularlybeneficialinthefollowingsituations:(1) Thenegotiationiscomplex,requiringadiversesetofknowledge,abilities,orexpertise.(2)Thenegotiationhasgreatpotentialforcreative,integrativesolutions.

(3)Youwanttodisplayyourstrengthtothe otherside,forexample,ininternational contextswhereteamsareexpected.

(4)Youwanttosignaltotheothersidethat youtakethenegotiationveryseriously, asinamerger合并oracquisition兼并.(5)Youtrustandrespectavailableteam members.(6)Youhavesufficienttimetoorganizeand coordinateateameffort.Creatingatrueteamrequirespreparation,coordinationandinternalnegotiation.Whenadealisveryimportant,youshouldspendatleasttwiceasmuchtimeonpreparationasyoudevotetothenegotiationitself.3.Betterteamworkthroughpreparation

Anewnegotiatingteam'spreparationphaseshouldincludethreecomponents:Discussthenegotiation’ssubstanceBeforeenteringintothenegotiation,theteammuststriveforcompleteunity.

CASE: AnAmericancoupleinMorocco,browsinginashop,wantingtobuyrugs.a. Beginyourpreparatorymeetingbybrainstormingalistofissuesthatyouwouldliketodiscussinthenegotiation

b. Prioritizetheissuesandconsiderpotentialtradeoffs.c. AgreeonyourBATNA达成协议的最佳替代方案(bestalternativetoanegotiatedagreement);yourreservationpoint底线,ortheworstoutcomeyouwillagreeto;andyouraspirationlevel期望值

orthebestoutcomeyoucanimagine.

d. Nowit'stimetoconsidertheotherside:toestimatetheirpriorities,theirBATNAS,reservationpoint,andaspirationlevel,etc. makealistofinformationthatyouwishedyouknew.Finally,agreeontheinformationyourteamiswillingtorevealtotheother sideandtheinformationthatmustneverberevealed.Remember,youcan’ttakeanythingbackonceit’sbeenspoken.(2)Assessskillsandroles---tofigureouthowtotakeadvantageofthediverseskillsofyourteammembers.Beginwithaskillsassessment.---Whatkindofknowledgeisrequired?Thenextstepistomatchskillswithessentialroles

(3)Planthenegotiationprocess Whatopeningoffershouldtheymake?Whenshouldtheymakethefirstconcession? Howmanyconcessionsshouldtheymake?4.OrganizationalstructurefornegotiatorsP.63 Consistsofleadingpersonnel, chiefnegotiator“Theleadertypically,thoughnotalways,servesastheteam'schiefnegotiator.” technicalpersonnel,businesspersonnel,lawpersonnel,translators,financialpersonnel,andpersonneltorecordminutes.

Thenegotiationteamshouldincludemembersineachofthefollowingarea:Commercial:responsibleforthenegotiationonprice,deliveryterms,andcommercialpolicyofrisktaking.Technical:responsiblefortheareaconcerningspecification,programandmethodsofwork(3)Financial:responsiblefortermsofpayment,creditinsurance,bondsandfinancialguarantees.(4)Legal:responsibleforcontractdocuments,termsandconditionsofcontractinsurance,legalinterpretation5.Howbigshouldtheteambe“Myruleofthumbisthatnoworkteamshouldhavemembershipinthedoubledigits,andmypreferredsizeissix.”—J.RichardHackman

3.3 Planning---Establishingobjectives

3.3.1 Gistofaplan

3.3.2 Establishingobjectivesortargets.

Maximumtarget,alsocalledtheoptimalexpectedtarget最优期望目标Seller: ＄700,000Buyer: ＄350,000(2)ActualneededtargetItisasecretinsideateamItisthelastlineofdefenseBroughtbytheotherpartySeller: ＄520,000Buyer: ＄500,000(3)Acceptabletarget.(therangethatallowsconcessions)Seller: ＄520,000-＄500,000Buyer: ＄500,000-＄520,000(4)Minimumtarget(ifnotachieved,thenegotiationwouldfalldownorcollapse)Seller: lessthan＄500,000Buyer: higherthan＄520,000MaximumtargetAcceptabletargetActualneededtargetMinimumtargetSeller: ＄700,000Buyer: ＄350,000Seller: ＄520,000Buyer: ＄500,000Seller: ＄520,000-＄500,000Buyer: ＄500,000-＄520,000Seller: lessthan＄500,000Buyer: higherthan＄520,000＄500,000ANTBuyer＄520,000ANTSeller＄350,000MTBuyer＄700,000MTSellerATorBargainrange3.3.3Negotiationstrategies3.3.4Agenda------Oneofthebestwaytoconfinethediscussiontoimportantmatters.1.RequirementConcisenessInparticularsFeasibility2. AdvantagesofagendaPointsouttheissuestobenegotiated.Helpsputthepartyinaframeofmindtomakeconcessions.Enablethenegotiatortoleadandcontrolthenegotiationconference.3.MainContentsinanAgendaDatePlaceContents a.Issueshavebeensettled b.Issuestobenegotiated(4)

Objectives.Priceobjectives: Ifitisassumedthattheoriginaltenderwassubmittedwithamarginonsalesof35%,thismightbebrokendownas:

Commercialoverheads 商业性开支 15% profit利润 12.5% riskcontingency意外风险 5% Negotiatingmargin谈判机动幅度2.5% “Toachieveamarginof32.5%withinthevalidityperiodofthetenderandwithoutadditiontotherisksallowedforinthetender.” “在报盘有效期内，如无意外风险因素，拟以32.5%的预期毛利率成交。” Minimumacceptableterms各条款可接受的最低限度: Pricelevel:Maximumreductioninprofitafterconcessionofthenegotiatingmarginis5%ifthenegotiationsareconcludedwithintendervalidityperiod. Termsofpayment:Thebuyer’stermsofpaymentcanbeacceptedsubjecttocommercialoverheadsremainingunchanged. Delivery:Shorterdeliverycanbeacceptedifpenaltycontingencyretained.3.MainContentsinanAgenda(5)

Procedure(ordersofissues) a.1ststep _________ b.2ndstep_________Timearrangement: 3/5 entertainment

“Thetendervalidityexpireswithinonemonth.Extensionofvaliditywouldcostapproximately0.5%forthefirstmonthand1%permonthafterthat.Afterthreemonthsitwouldbenecessarytorequotesincedeliverycouldnolongerbemaintained.Aimshouldbetoconcludenegotiationsin2monthsatthemaximum.”(7) PersonnelTheagendashouldstatethenamesandjobtitlesoftheteammembers.Itshouldalsoindicateanydutiesperformedoutsideoftheirownfunction.

Teamleader: Mr.Jones.(Exportsalesmanager) Teammembers:Mr.Brown(Assistantmanager, systemengineering) Mr.Smith(AssistantLegalAdviser) Mr.Brownwillcoverallproductionaspectsinadditiontoengineeringandisresponsibleforobtainingdataandmaterialsfromtheproductionmanagerforthispurpose.(8)

GeneralRulesandDetailedRulesGeneralrules: theyareabidebybothpartiesincluding:centralideaofthenegotiation,especiallytopicofthefirstfound;Whatshouldbenegotiated,whatneedn’t?theirorders,Personnelarrangedfordifferentissues.Arrangementfordifferentroundandtotaltimeofthenegotiation.

Detailedrules:shouldbeconfidential,andappliedtothepartyitself,including:Tounifyallthemembers’documents,materials,information,etc,infaceoftheotherparty.Toestablishprobableissuesbroughtupbytheotherpartyandtheirreplies.Orders:whentoraiseaquestions,whatkindofquestion,toasktowhom,whoask,whosupplement,whentoshiftthetopicunderdiscussion,whotoshift,whentoaskforabreakTest

Youarenegotiatingamulti-billiondollarmergerandyourcounterpartfaxesyoutheproposedtermsandconditionsinanattempttogettheupper-handinthenegotiationsandsuggestsathree-hourmeetingtodiscusstheterms.Whatdoyoudo?Gothroughtheirproposalpointbypointandtrytodeterminetheirrationaleforincludingeachprovision.Developalistofconcernsinregardstotheprovisionstheyhaveincluded.c.Developanagendaforthescheduledmeeting.d.Comeupwithacounterproposalofyourown.e.Inordertosendamessageof"strength",immediatelysendareturnfaxindicatingthatthesuggestedmeetingtimeisnotconvenientforyouandsuggestanalternativemeetingtimewhereyouwillprovidethemwithacounterproposalofyourown.VI.Simulating

Negotiation“Ialwayspretendtobethe