美国国家科学委员会：2022年科学与工程指标报告

PublicPublicAttitudesScienceandTechnology:PublicPerceptions,Awareness,andInformationSourcesheNationalNationalScienceBoard|Science&EngineeringIndicators|NSB-2022-72NationalScienceBoard|Science&EngineeringIndicators|NSB-2022-73IntroductionyGeneralPerceptionsofS&TPerceptionsofScientistsPerceptionsofEngineersandEngineeringPerceptionsofSpecificS&TIssuesationSourcesandInvolvementSourcesofInformationaboutScienceEngagementwithScienceActivitiesnDefinitionsKeytoAcronymsandAbbreviations43AcknowledgmentsandCitation44Acknowledgments44Citation4445ReportAuthors4545NationalScienceBoard|Science&EngineeringIndicators|NSB-2022-74barsUSPublicPerceptionsofCOVIDResearch15ListofTablesConfidenceinscientiststoactinthebestinterestsofthepublic,bydemographiccharacteristics:2020Americans'understandingofthescientificmethod:2020Confidenceinscientiststoactinthebestinterestsofthepublic,byperceptionofthescientificmethod:2020Confidenceinmedicalscientiststoactinthebestinterestsofthepublic,byperceptionofthescientificmethod:2020Participationinscienceactivitiesinthepast12months,byfamilyincomeandeducation:2020COVID-19vaccinationstatusandintenttogetaCOVID-19vaccine,HouseholdPulseSurvey:January2021andSeptember2021ListofPublicassessmentofbenefitsandharmsofscientificresearch:Selectedyears,1979–2018U.S.adultswhoagreethatsciencemakesourwayoflifechangetoofast,thatscienceprovidesmoreopportunitiesforthenextgeneration,andthatthefederalgovernmentshouldfundbasicscientificresearch:yearsTrustinscience,bycountry:2018Publicperceptionofscientists:Selectedyears,1985–2018Perceivedknowledgeaboutscience,bycountry:2018Triedtogetinformationaboutscienceinthepast30days,bycountry:2018Triedtogetinformationaboutmedicine,disease,orhealthinthepast30days,bycountry:2018HowoftenU.S.adultsthoughtabouttheimpactofscienceontheireverydaylives,beforeandduringtheCOVIDpandemic019and2020Participationinscienceactivitiesinthepast12months:2020Helpedachildwithascienceprojectinthepast12months,byfamilyincomeandeducation:2020Respondentswhocorrectlyansweredfactualknowledgequestionaboutwhetherantibioticskillviruses:yearsAmongthosewhohavenotreceivedaCOVID-19vaccine,reasonsforintendingnottogetavaccine:January2021andSeptember2021NationalScienceBoard|Science&EngineeringIndicators|NSB-2022-75Keytakeaways:●Publicconfidenceinscienceandscientistsremainshigh,withthemajorityofAmericanadultsreportingpositiveassessmentsofscienceandscientists.●AhigherpercentageofAmericanadultshadgreatconfidenceinbothmedicalscientists(e.g.,sciencepractitionerssuchasphysicians)andscientistsgenerallyin2020thantheydidin2016;24%reporteda“greatdeal”ofconfidenceinmedicalscientistsin2016,and43%ofrespondentsreportedsuchconfidencein2020,withanincreasefrom21%to39%forscientistsgenerally.●ThemajorityofAmericanadultsreportabasicunderstandingofscientificresearchprinciplessuchastheusefulnessofastudycontrolgroupforcomparisonwithatreatmentgroup.Atthesametime,thosewhodemonstrategreaterunderstandingofscientificlogictendtoexpressmoretrustinscientiststoactinthebestinterestofsocietythanthosewhoexpresslessunderstanding.●Americanadultsreportseekinginformationonsciencemorethantheircounterpartsinmostothercountrieswithsimilarlyhighlevelsofresearchanddevelopmentspending.In2018,themajorityofAmericanadultshadrecentlysoughtinformationaboutmedicineordisease.●OnlyaminorityofAmericanadultsreportanyrecentexperiencewithvariousscienceactivities,suchasmakingobservationsforaresearchproject(7%)orparticipatinginanonlinecrowdsourcingactivityrelatedtodatacollectionforscience(3%).●Householdswithgreaterparenteducationalattainmentorincomereportmoreexposuretosciencethroughchildren’sactivities,suchasschoolprojects,thandohouseholdswithlowereducationalattainmentorincome.Thisthematicreportpresentsindicatorsofpublicperceptionsofscienceandtechnology(S&T),publicfamiliaritywithscienceresearchprocesses,andAmericanadults’exposuretosourcesofscienceinformationaswellastheirinvolvementinscientificactivities.Americanadultsincludepeopleatleast18yearsoldwholiveinaU.S.household.ManyofthedatapresentedinthisreportwerecollectedpriortotheCOVID-19pandemic,althoughsomedatareflectperceptionsmeasuredduringthepandemic.ResearchershavemeasuredAmericans’understandingofS&Tfordecadesandhavenotedapatternofpositiveperceptionsaboutscienceandscientistsovertime.Thisreportdescribesthatpatternandconsidershowthoseperceptionsvarybetweenpeoplewithdifferentcharacteristics.Thereportalsodescribesthestateofresearchonpublicunderstandingofspecificscienceandengineeringtopics(suchasclimatechangescience)andperceptionsofcertaintypesofS&Tprofessionals(suchasengineers).Howcommunicationprofessionalspresentscientificdevelopmentscanshapepublicreactions;descriptionsofhowscientistsconductresearchcanimproveordiscouragepublicacceptanceofinformationresultingfromthatresearch.Thisreportdescribesevidenceonpublicreactiontoclinicaltrials,forexample,whichsuggeststhatannouncinginadvancethatanevidencebasewilldevelopovertimeandthatconclusionsaboutoutcomesmightchangeovertimecanlessennegativepublicreactiontolaternewsaboutchangesinscientificconclusions.ThereportalsodescribeswaysinwhichpublicperceptionsofS&TmayhaveshiftedwithrecentdevelopmentssuchastheCOVID-19pandemic,theadventofnewtechnologies,andmediacoverageofenvironmentalnews.Forexample,ahigherpercentageofAmericanadultsexpressedconfidenceinscientistsinNovember2020,followingtheonsetoftheCOVID-19pandemic,thanin2016.RecentliteraturealsodescribeshowchangesinpublicperceptionsofS&Tcanoccuraspeople’sexperiencewithS&Tchanges;forexample,personalexperiencewithautomatedtechnologyandartificialintelligencecanpositivelyaffecttrustperceptionsovertime.NationalScienceBoard|Science&EngineeringIndicators|NSB-2022-76ThisthematicreportconcludeswithadescriptionofAmericans’exposuretoscienceinformationaswellastheirparticipationinscienceactivities.MostAmericanadultsreportnotrecentlyparticipatinginascienceactivity,suchasmakingobservationsforascienceresearchprojectorparticipatinginanonlinecrowdsourcingactivitytoidentifyanimals.Moreover,participationinscienceactivitiesvariesbydemographics,withthosehouseholdswithgreaterparenteducationalattainmentorincomereportingmorescienceactivityexposure.Americanadultslargelyhavenotbeenparticipatinginscientificresearchactivities,andthosewithlessincomeoreducationalattainmentreportrelativelylessparticipation.NationalScienceBoard|Science&EngineeringIndicators|NSB-2022-77Publicperceptionsofscienceandtechnology(S&T)intheUnitedStatesaffectmanyaspectsofciviclife.Theypredictcitizenengagementwithformalscienceeducation(Vincent-RuzandSchunn2018),supportforinvestmentinS&T(Besley2018;Muñoz,Moreno,andLuján2012),andthewaysinwhichthepublictalksaboutscientificdiscoveries(SouthwellandTorres2006).Publicencounterswith,andunderstandingof,sciencecanalsohelppredictbehaviortowardscientificorganizationsandfuturepatternsofscience,engineering,technology,andmathematics(STEM)training(VanMeter-Adamsetal.2014).GiventhepotentialconsequencesofpublicperceptionsontheS&TenterpriseintheUnitedStates,researchershavebeenstudyingpublicunderstandingofsciencefordecades(Durant,Evans,andThomas1989;Hilgartner1990;Leshner2003;Allumetal.2008;Funketal.2019).TheNationalScienceBoardhaspublishednumerousiterationsoftheScienceandTechnology:PublicAttitudes,Knowledge,andInterestreportthatincludedataontrendsinopinions,attitudes,andbehaviorsrelatedtoS&T.(Forinformationonthemostrecentpreviousversionofthisreport,seeNSBIndicators2020report"[2020]ScienceandTechnology:PublicAttitudes,Knowledge,andInterest.")AlthoughmeasuringpublicperceptionsofS&Thasbeenalong-standingprojectforsocialscienceresearch,measurementitselfhasevolvedasresearchershavecometorecognizethecomplexityofthoseperceptions.EarlierresearcherstendedtofocusondeficitsinscienceknowledgeasakeycriterionforevaluatingpublicunderstandingofS&T,suchastestingfactualknowledgeaboutantibiotics.Morerecently,however,researchershaveturnedtomeasuringpublicperceptionsofsciencepracticeandscientificinstitutions.Thatunderstandingincludesarangeofideasandbeliefsthatmaynotalwaysalignneatlywithknowledgeofscientificfacts(Miller2004;Allumetal.2008).Patternsofpublicperceptionalsoevolveovertime,suggestingthatbothcross-sectionalandlongitudinaldata(meaningdatacapturedatonepointintimeanddatageneratedovertime)aresometimesnecessarytoaccuratelytrackandevaluatepublicbeliefsaboutS&T.Someresearchersviewscienceasoperatingwithinlargersocialandculturalcontexts—suchaspublicdiscourseaboutvalues,therolesofinstitutions,andspecificthreatstohealthandwell-being—thatmustbeacknowledgedinthinkingabouthowpeopleperceivescientificresearch(seeBauer2009;BrossardandLewenstein2010;Lewenstein1992).Thesechangingconsiderationsofscienceasanendeavorandoftherolesofscientificinstitutionsintersectwithlong-standingnationalmeasurementeffortsthatusestableindicatorstotrackpublicunderstandingofscienceovertime.Asaresult,anyefforttosummarizepublicperceptionsofsciencemustaddressthetensionbetweenestablishedmeasurementeffortsthathavenotchangedsubstantiallyovertimeandevolvingconversationsaboutwhatmeasuresofpublicunderstandingofS&Tarepossibleandappropriate.Thisreportdrawsonrelevantpeer-reviewedresearchandoffersindicatorsanddataonthreeimportantdimensionsofpublicunderstanding:(1)Americans’perceptionsofS&Tissues;(2)howwelltheyunderstandscientificlogicandresearchprocesses;and(3)wheretheyencounterscienceandgetscientificinformation.Whenpossible,thediscussionincludesbothaggregateU.S.dataonpublicperceptionsanddatabrokendownbydemographiccharacteristics.ThereportalsoincludessomeinformationcomparingAmericans’publicperceptionsofS&TtothoseoftheircounterpartsinothercountrieswithhighlevelsofspendingonS&Tresearchanddevelopment(R&D).NationalScienceBoard|Science&EngineeringIndicators|NSB-2022-78PublicopiniononS&Tincludesbeliefsaboutthegeneralpromiseandbenefitsofscientificresearchforsocietyaswellasawarenessandperceptionsofspecificscientifictopics,includingthoseofrecentinterestlikeresearchonsevereacuterespiratorysyndromecoronavirus2(SARS-CoV-2)andCOVID-19;citizenscience;andartificialintelligence(AI),robotics,andautomationtechnology.Socialscienceresearchalsohighlightsnewinsightsaboutpublicperceptionoflong-standingconcernssuchasclimatechangeandthestateofscienceeducationintheUnitedStates.Americans’supportforS&Tasageneralenterprisehasbeenconsistentlyquitepositiveforatleastfourdecades.Fornearlyfivedecades,theGeneralSocialSurvey(GSS)—anationallyrepresentativesurveyofadultsintheUnitedStates—hasassessedAmericans’perceptionsofS&T(Smithetal.2012–18).From1979to2018,theGSSfoundaclearmajorityofAmericanadultsagreedthatthebenefitsofscientificresearchstronglyorslightlyoutweightheharmfulresults(FigurePPS-1).From1992to2018,theGSSalsofoundthatmostAmericanssurveyedbelievedthattherewouldbemoreopportunities“forthenextgeneration”becauseofS&T(FigurePPS-2)andthattheysupportedfederalfundingforbasicscientificresearch,evenwhentheydidnotexpectthatresearchtoproduceimmediatebenefits.0n=numberofsurveyresponses.Note(s):Percentagesmaynotaddto100%becauseofrounding.SeeTableSPPS-1forstandarderrors.Figuredisplaysdataforyearswhenthequestionwasproffered.Responsesaretothefollowing:Peoplehavefrequentlynotedthatscientificresearchhasproducedbenefitsandharmfulresults.Wouldyousaythat,onbalance,thebenefitsofscientificresearchhaveoutweighedtheharmfulresults,orhavetheharmfulresultsofscientificresearchbeengreaterthanitsbenefits?Inthisfigure,"Benefits...outweighharmfulresults"and"Harmfulresults...outweighbenefits"eachcombineresponsesof"stronglyoutweigh"and"slightlyoutweigh."NationalScienceBoard|Science&EngineeringIndicators|NSB-2022-79Source(s):Dataaresourcedfrommultiplesurveysthatusedeitheridenticalorsimilarsurveyitems.NationalCenterforScienceandEngineeringStatistics,SurveyofPublicAttitudesTowardandUnderstandingofScienceandTechnology(1979–2001);UniversityofMichigan,SurveyofConsumerAttitudes(2004);NORCattheUniversityofChicago,GeneralSocialSurvey(2006–18).ScienceandEngineeringIndicators0n=numberofsurveyresponses.Note(s):SeeTableSPPS-2throughTableSPPS-4foradditionaldetail.SeeTableSPPS-5throughTableSPPS-7forstandarderrors.Responsesaretothefollowing:Sciencemakesourwayoflifechangetoofast.Becauseofscienceandtechnology,therewillbemoreopportunitiesforthenextgeneration.Evenifitbringsnoimmediatebenefits,scientificresearchthatadvancesthefrontiersofknowledgeisnecessaryandshouldbesupportedbythefederalgovernment.Figuredisplaysthepercentageofrespondentswho"stronglyagree"or"agree"withtheaforementionedstatements.Source(s):Dataaresourcedfrommultiplesurveysthatusedeitheridenticalorsimilarsurveyitems.NationalCenterforScienceandEngineeringStatistics,SurveyofPublicAttitudesTowardandUnderstandingofScienceandTechnology(1992–2001);UniversityofMichigan,SurveyofConsumerAttitudes(2004);NORCattheUniversityofChicago,GeneralSocialSurvey(2006–18).ScienceandEngineeringIndicatorsOneexceptiontoAmericans’tendencytosupportS&Thasbeentheperceptionthatsciencemakeslifechangetoofast.Inthelastdecade,Americanshavebeenalmostevenlysplitabouttheviewthatsciencehassuchadownside(FigurePPS-2).From2010to2018,theGSSfoundthatroughlyhalfofrespondentsagreedorstronglyagreedthat“sciencemakesourwayoflifechangetoofast,”movingupfromanaverageof38%from1995to1999toanaverageof50%from2014to2018.NationalScienceBoard|Science&EngineeringIndicators|NSB-2022-710Americansalsohavetendedtoreportthattheytrustinscience,andthatstanceissimilartoresidentsoftheothercountriesthatspendthemostonS&TR&Dcomparedtotherestoftheworld.Accordingtothe2018WellcomeGlobalMonitorsurvey(Gallup2019b)—theworld’slargeststudyonhowpeoplearoundtheworldthinkandfeelaboutscienceandmajorhealthchallenges—amajorityofAmericanssurveyedreportedthattheytrustscience“some”or“alot.”Thisstancewasconsistentwithcitizensinthetop16countrieswiththelargestgrossdomesticexpenditureonR&Dasapercentageofgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)asof2017(FigurePPS-3).0n=numberofsurveyresponses.Note(s):Percentagesmaynotaddto100%becauseofrounding.SeeTableSPPS-8forstandarderrors.Countriesarethosewithtop16grossdomesticexpendituresonR&Dasapercentageofgrossdomesticproductin2017,listedinorderofpercentagesthattrustscience"alot"fromhighesttolowest.(SeeScienceandEngineeringIndicators2020"[2020]ResearchandDevelopment:U.S.TrendsandInternationalComparisons"report:Table4-5.)Responsesaretothefollowing:Ingeneral,wouldyousaythatyoutrustsciencealot,some,notmuch,ornotatall?Gallup,WellcomeGlobalMonitor,2019.ScienceandEngineeringIndicatorsNationalScienceBoard|Science&EngineeringIndicators|NSB-2022-711DespiteAmericans’generalendorsementofscienceandthestabilityoftheirgeneralperceptionsofscienceovertime,therearesomenotabledifferencesinconfidenceinS&Tbetweensomegroups.Onesourceofthosevariationsistheextenttowhichpeopleunderstandhowscientistsconductresearchandusethelogicofsciencetogenerateevidence.Thisissuewillbeexploredlaterinthisreport;seesectionPublicFamiliaritywithScienceandTechnologyResearchProcesses.PerceptionsofScientistsInthedecadesspanningthelate20thandearly21stcenturies,Americans’confidenceinscientistshasbeenhighrelativetotheirconfidenceinotherprofessionals(Krauseetal.2019).AhighlevelofAmericans’confidenceinscientiststoactinthebestinterestsofsocietyisevidentinGSSdataspanningfrom1985through2018.Overthatperiod,severalsurveys,includingtheGSS,askedrespondentstheextenttowhichtheyagreedthatscientistsarededicatedpeoplewhoworkforthegoodofhumanity,helptosolvechallengingproblems,andworktomakelifebetterfortheaverageperson(FigurePPS-4).AconsistentlyhighpercentageofAmericansagreedwiththosestatementsineverysurvey,althoughtherehasbeensomefluctuation.Forexample,thepercentageofAmericanswhobelievescientistsworktomakelifebetterfortheaveragepersonrangedfrom80%in1985to89%in2018.The2021GSScross-sectionstudyfieldedasimilarquestionfromDecember2020toMay2021askingabouttheextenttowhichparticipantshaveconfidenceinthe“scientificcommunity,”andresultsalsosuggestedwidespreadconfidence.1Accordingto2021GSSresults,halfofAmericanshada“greatdealofconfidence”inthe“scientificcommunity,”andanother43%expressed“onlysome”confidence,whereasaminorityofadults—approximately7%—expressed“hardlyanyconfidenceatall”(Davernetal.2021).ThetendencyofthemajorityofAmericanstoexpressconfidenceinscientistsandscientificinstitutionsisnotable,giventhatsomerecentheadlineshaveimpliedadeclineinAmericans’levelsoftrustoreventheirwidespreadmistrustinscientistswithoutaccompanyingevidence(Fearnow2021;Piccone2020).0NationalScienceBoard|Science&EngineeringIndicators|NSB-2022-712na=notapplicable;questionwasnotasked.n=numberofsurveyresponses.Note(s):SeeTableSPPS-9foradditionalyearsanddetail.SeeTableSPPS-10forstandarderrors.Datarepresentrespondentswho"stronglyagree"and"agree"withthefollowing:Scientistsarehelpingtosolvechallengingproblems;Scientificresearchersarededicatedpeoplewhoworkforthegoodofhumanity;andMostscientistswanttoworkonthingsthatwillmakelifebetterfortheaverageperson.Source(s):Dataaresourcedfrommultiplesurveysthatusedeitheridenticalorsimilarsurveyitems.NationalCenterforScienceandEngineeringStatistics,SurveyofPublicAttitudesTowardandUnderstandingofScienceandTechnology(1985–2001);NORCattheUniversityofChicago,GeneralSocialScienceandEngineeringIndicatorsFollowingtheonsetoftheCOVID-19pandemic,inAprilandMay2020Americans’confidenceinscientiststoactinthebestinterestsofthepublicalsoappearedtohaveincreasedsomewhatbeyondhistoricaltrends(Funk,Kennedy,andJohnson2020),suggestingthatthevalueofsometypesofscientificresearchbecamemoreapparenttoAmericansinthefirstyearofthepandemiccomparedtothetimebeforethepandemic.InAprilandMay2020,thePewResearchCenterconductedasurveywithAmericanadultsandrepeatedquestionsithadaskedin2016and2019abouttheirconfidenceinmedicalscientistsandscientistsingeneraltoactinthebestinterestsofthepublic(Funk,Kennedy,andJohnson2020).In2016,24%reporteda“greatdeal”ofconfidencethatmedicalscientistswouldactinthepublicinterest.Butinspring2020,thispercentageincreasedto43%ofrespondentsreportingthatlevelofconfidenceinmedicalscientists.Forscientistsgenerally,21%ofrespondentsexpressedagreatdealofconfidencein2016,comparedto39%inspring2020.Globally,2018and2020WellcomeGlobalMonitorstudiesin113countriesalsohavedemonstratedanincreaseinthepercentageofthosewhotrustscientists“alot.”The2018and2020studiesdifferedinthenumberofcountriesincludedandbyinterviewmodality;the2020study,conductedprimarilybetweenSeptemberandDecember2020,occurredinfewercountriesthanthe2018studyandincludedtelephoneinterviewingratherthanface-to-faceinterviews.Nonetheless,eachofthetwostudiesincludedparticipantsfromacommonsetof113countries.Datafromthosecountriespointtoanincreasedleveloftrustinscientists:43%ofpeopleanswered“alot”whenaskedabouthowmuchtheytrustin“scientistsinthiscountry”inlate2020versus34%whoa