国际贸易(外文教材)第7章

Chapter7GrowthandTradeWhat’sthesourcesoflong-runeconomicgrowth?BalancedversusbiasedgrowthGrowthinonlyonefactorChangesinthecountry’swillingnesstotradeEffectsonthecountry’stermoftradeTechnologyandtradeEconomicgrowth

expansionovertimeinthecapabilitiesofaneconomytoproducegoodsandservices.What’sthesourcesoflong-runeconomicgrowth?Increaseincountries’endowmentsofproductionfactorsImprovementsinproductiontechnologiesBalancedversusbiasedgrowthBalancedgrowththeppcshiftsoutproportionallysothatitsrelativeshapeisthesameBiasedgrowtheconomicgrowththatfavorsproducingrelativelymoreofoneoftheproducts,sothattherelativeshapeofthenewproductionpossibilitycurvesskewstowardthefaster-growingproduct.Whatcancausebiasedgrowth?FromfactorsFromtechnologiesFigure7.1–BalancedandBiasedGrowthHowaboutthechangeoftradetriangleinthreefigures?GrowthinonlyonefactorRybczynskitheorem:(1)anincreaseintheoutputquantityoftheproductthatusesthegrowingfactorintensively,and(2)adecreaseintheoutputquantityoftheotherproduct.

Figure7.2–Single-FactorGrowth:TheRybczynskiTheoremChangesinthecountry’swillingnesstotradeWhathappenofthesizeoftradetriangleinfigure6.1whentheconsumptionofwheatdecrease?Whathappenofthesizeoftradetriangleinfigure6.1whentheconsumptionofwheatincrease?Effectsonthecountry’stermoftradeSmallcountryAcountrywhosetrade(orrealisticchangesinitstrade)doesnotaffectinternationalproductpricelargecountryacountrywhosetrade(orrealisticchangesinitstrade)affectsinternationalproductpriceSmallcountryIsitasmallcountryorbigcountryinFigure6.1?LargecountryCase1:thereductioninthecountry’sdemandforimports.Seefigure6.3Howabouttermoftradeincase1?Improveordeteriorate?TermoftradeimprovesFigure7.3–GrowthBiasedTowardReplacingImportsinaLargeCountryLargecountryCase2:theincreaseinthecountry’sdemandforimports.Growthinthecountry’sabilitytoproduceitsexportgoodsImmiserizinggrowth(figure6.4)ImmiserizinggrowthDefinition:nationaleconomicgrowththat,byexpandingthecountry’swillingnesstotrade,causessuchlargedeclineinthecountry’stermsoftradethatthecountryisworseforgrowing.Figure6.4Case:DutchdiseaseanddeindustrializationWhatconditionsforimmiserizinggrowthhappen?ThreeconditionsforImmiserizinggrowthtohappenThecountry’sgrowthmustbestronglybiasedtowardexpandingthecountry’ssupplyofexportsandtheincreaseinexportsupplymustbelargeenoughtohaveanoticeableimpactonworldpricesTheforeigndemandforthecountry’sexportsmustbepriceinelasticsothatanexpansioninthecountry’sexportsupplyleadstoalargedropintheinternationalpriceoftheexportproductBeforethegrowth,thecountrymustbeheavilyengagedintradesothatthewelfarelossfromthedeclinethetermsoftradeisgreatenoughtooffsetthegainsfrombeingabletoproducemore.Figure7.4–ImmiserizingGrowthinaLargeCountryexerciseAccordingtotheRybtheorem,anincreaseinthecountry’slaborforcewillresultinanincreaseinthequantityproducedofthelabor-intensivegood,withnochangeinthequantityproducedoftheothergood.”doyouagreeordisagree?Acountrywhosetradehasalmostnoimpactonworldpricesisatgreatriskofimmiserizinggrowth.”doyouagreeordisagree?exercise

Ifacountryexhibitsbalancedgrowth,theproductionpossibilitiescurvewill:shiftoutonthexaxis.shiftoutontheyaxisshiftoutonbothaxesequallynotshift.Ifacountry'sendowmentoflaborincreasesandclothproductionisrelativelymorelabor-intensivethancornproduction,thenaccordingtotheRybczynskitheorem,theproductionpossibilitiescurvewillshiftoutwardalong:theclothaxisthecornaxisbothaxes.neitheraxisTechnologyandtradeR&DDiffusionthespreadoftechnologiesinternationally,fromthecountriesthatinventorfirstusethetechnologiestoothercountriesthatcanalsousethetechnologiesProductcycleAtheorythatthereisaregularpatterntoproductionlocationsandinternationaltradepatternsforaproductafteritisinvented.Theproductisinventedandfirstproducedinanindustrializedcountry,soatfirstthesecountriesexporttheproduct.Overtime,productionshiftstootherindustrializedcountriesandthentodevelopingcountries,sotheidentityofthemajorexportingcountriesalsochanges.TrueorfalseTheproductcyclehypothesisstatesthatthelocationofproductionofaproductislikelytomovefromdevelopedcountriestolessdevelopedcountriesastheproductmovesfrom