某咨询对伊拉克战争后的机会分析报告

OVERVIEWOFTHEIRAQOPPORTUNITYDoingBusinessinIraqAmman,5thJune2003AchmedAl-ShahrabaniMcKinsey&Company,Inc.AGENDAOverviewIraqEconomicscenariosforIraqRequiredinvestments

AGENDAOverviewIraqEconomicscenariosforIraqRequiredinvestments

Totalarea:437,000m2LimitedarablelandArableland:11%Permanentcrops:1%Desert:88%LargestgovernatesBaghdad(8.0m)Nineveh(2.1m)Basra(2.0m)Varyingclimate(Baghdad)Summertemp:35-50ºWintertemp:5-15ºRainfall:155mm/year

Source: CountryWatch,CIAworldfactbookCartransport39,000kmpavedroads765,000privatelyregisteredpassengercars266,000privatelyregisteredtrucksAirMajorairportsinBaghdad,BasraandMosulThreemajorrailwayroutesBaghdad–Kirkuk–IrbilBaghdad–Mosul–YurubiyahBaghdad–Maagal–UmmQasrTelecom3%penetration,nomobilenetworkUtilities250watertreatmentfacilitiesPowergenerationcapacityof9500(pre1990),currentlyat1800MWGeographyandclimateInfrastructureThemajorityofIraqischaracterizedbydesertOVERVIEWIRAQIGEOGRAPHY

Source: Worldoutlook,EIUcountryriskreportIraq50%ofpopulationyoungerthan16years28%ofpopulationislaborforceApproximately51%males75%ofpopulationresidesinurbanareasThereisanestimated1m–2mIraqi’slivinginexileFertilityrate4.5–5childrenperwomenAdultliteracyat54%1.5-2.5millionforeignworkersKeyfacts198019851990199520002002CAGR3%DEVELOPMENTIRAQIPOPULATION1980TO2002Iraqipopulationamountstomorethan24millionsMillionSource: CIAworldfactbook100%=24.2mOthersArabs-ShiaMuslimsKurds–SunniMuslims46212Arabs–SunniMuslims22ESTIMATEPOPULATIONSIZEBYETHNICGROUPShiaMuslimsformIraq’sethnicmajority%Adultliteracyat54%(vs.75%inIran) * From6to23yearsSource: EIUcountryprofileIraq200219801998EDUCATIONENROLMENTRATIOFORALLAGES*-1980VS.1998AnincreasingnumberofchildrendoesnotreceiveformaleducationESTIMATESource: CountryWatchProvenreservesUnprovenpotentialTotalGasTrillionm3,2001OilBillionbarrels,2001OVERVIEWOFIRAQ’SNATURALOILANDGASRESERVESIraqhasoneofthelargestnaturaloilandgasreserves…ESTIMATESource: BPStatisticalreview,20021.SaudiArabia2.Iraq3.UAE4.Kuwait5.IranOil,provedreservesBillionbarrels,2001Gas,provedreservesTrillionm3,20011.Russia2.Iran3.Qatar4.SaudiArabia5.UAE10.IraqRANKINGOFBIGGESTNATURALOILANDGASRESERVESWORDWIDE…whicharethesecondlargestinoilandthetenthlargestingasESTIMATE * Purchasingpowerparitymethod,currentpricesSource: CIAWorldfactbook;CountryWatch;EIUcountryriskreportonIraq2003200250-6025-351980DEVELOPMENTOFIRAQ’SREALGDP*-1980TO2002Overthepastdecade,Iraq’srealGDPfellby50%…USDbillionESTIMATE-50%GDPestimatesfor2002subjecttowidevariation(USD24-60billion) * Purchasingpowerparitymethod,currentpricesSource: CIAWorldFactbook;CountryWatch20023.8-4.51.0-1.41980ESTIMATEDEVELOPMENTOFIRAQ’SREALGDP*PERCAPITA-1980TO2002…andpurchasingpowerparityonindividuallevelevenfurtherUSDthousandsGDP/capitaestimatessubjecttowidevariation(USD1.000-2.500)-70%Source: GlobalInsightWMM2.Q.2003IraqSaudiArabiaCOMPARISONOFGDPDEVELOPMENTIRAQVS.SAUDIARABIA-1970TO2000IraqhassufferedasignificantreductioninGDPoverlast25yearsinbillionUSDinpricesandexchangeratesof2000Source: GlobalInsightWMM2.Q.2003IraqSaudiArabiaCOMPARISONOFGDPPERCAPITADEVELOPMENTIRAQVS.SAUDIARABIA-1970TO2000Inthelate70tiesIraq’sGDPpercapitawasatparwithSaudiArabiain‘000USDinpricesandexchangeratesof2000 *BasedonaGDPofUSD30billionandapopulationof24millionSource: EIUcountryprofileIraqJordanIranIraqSaudiArabiaSyria*ESTIMATECOMPARISONOFGDPPERCAPITA-2002Iraq’scurrentGDPpercapitaiscomparabletoSyriaandIranUSDthousands

Source: Economistintelligenceunit2002;OANDA.COMIraqiinflationrates%19961997199819992000ExchangeratesIraqiDinarperUSD(blackmarketrate)Hugebudgetdeficitsleadto“printingofmoney”BUT:OfficialexchangeratehasbeenID0,31totheUSDsince1983200120021996199719981999200020012002CurrentexchangerateID900-1.000=1USDESTIMATEDEVELOPMENTOFINFLATIONANDEXCHANGERATES–1996TO2002IraqhasshownhighinflationcoupledwithstrongdepreciationofthecurrencySource: EIUcountrydataExternaldebt

$bnIraqSyriaJordanIran230-4851091113%ofGPD60-130MaincausesofuncertaintyareAccruedinterest“Assistance”fundsinIran-IraqwarClaimsfollowingGulfwar1991ESTIMATECOMPARISONOFEXTERNALLIABILITIES-2001Iraqhassignificantliabilitiesandcanbeconsideredbankrupt * Estimatesrangefrom$103.4–$129.4bn

Source:Reuters;InstituteforinternationalEconomics25181310SaudiArabiaGulfStatesexcl.KuwaitKuwaitParisClubexclRussia,France8Russia8France2USA3CommercialBankCreditors2Bulgaria2Poland,Czech,Romania1MultilateralInstitutions1Yugoslavia2TradeClaims24OthersTotalexternaldebt119*14-25Kuwaitreparationpayments133–144TotalclaimsIraqregardedtheloansfromSaudiArabiaandKuwaitasgrantpaymentsforits1980waragainstIranCommentsCreditorAmount–principalandoverdueinterestESTIMATEBREAKDOWNOFIRAQILIABILITIES–2001Iraq’sliabilitiesaremainly‘loans’fromtheGulfstatesgrantedtoIraqinthe80tiesduringthewarwithIran(USDbn)TheIMFandWorldBankareowedlessthan$200mSource: EIUCountryprofileIraq2002FranceAustraliaChinaJordanTop5importsourcesTop5exportdestinationsU.S.FranceJordanItalySpainItalyMainlyoilexportswithinthefoodforoilprogramMAJORIRAQITRADINGPARTNERS-2001Franceismostimportantsupplier,theUSmostimportantcustomerofIraqiproductsUSDmillionAGENDAOverviewIraqEconomicscenariosforIraqRecentdevelopmentsSource: McKinsey“Goodstandard”

1Assumesthenon-oilsectorsoftheIraqieconomygrowsmodestlyataCAGRof3-5%overthenext10years(overallGDPgrowthincl.oil9-11%)“BestinClass”

2Assumesthenon-oilpartofthetheIraqieconomygrowsstronglyataCAGRof7-9%overthenext10years(overallGDPgrowthincl.oil11-13%)“Distinctive”3Assumesthenon-oilsectorsoftheIraqieconomygrowsaggressivelyataCAGR12-15%overthenext10years(overallGDPgrowthincl.oil13-15%)ESTIMATEFORDISCUSSIONTHREEDEVELOPMENTSCENARIOSIraq’sInthe‘WorldClass’scenarioIraqiGDPpercapitacouldreach4,000USDby2013Non-oilSectorsOilproductionlevel2008Oilproductionlevel20134-5millionbarrelsperday6-7millionbarrelsperdayOilSector+*)Populationin2003=24million,2008=29million,2013=33millionSource: McKinseyGDPdevelopment2003-2013(inbnUSD)GDPpercapita*2003-2013(in‘000USD)ESTIMATEFORDISCUSSIONTHREEPOTENTIALDEVELOPMENTSCENARIOSInthe‘distinctive’scenarioIraqiGDPpercapitacouldreach4,000USDby20131“GoodStandard”

1.8-2.22.2-2.62003201320081.253-6373-862003201320083014%6%11%3%2“Bestinclass”

2.0-2.32.5-2.92003201320081.257-6783-982003201320083016%8%12%5%3“Distinctive”

2.2-2.63.1-3.82003201320081.263-75102-1262003201320083018%11%15%8%COMPARISONOFIRAQWITHSAUDIARABIASource: GlobalInsightWMM2.Q.2003GDPpercapitacomparison

‘000USDGDPcomparison

bnUSD651452015530225516110110IraqSaudiIraqSaudiIraqSaudiIraqSaudiIraqSaudiIraqSaudi19801990200319801990200370-90300-32080-100300-320100-130300-3203.1-4.99-112.5-2.99-112.2-2.69-11IraqSaudiIraqSaudiIraqSaudiIraqSaudiIraqSaudiIraqSaudiGDP

(bnUSD)GDPpercapita

(‘000USD)GDP

(bnUSD)GDPpercapita

(‘000USD)GDP

(bnUSD)GDPpercapita

(‘000USD)23120132013ESTIMATEFORDISCUSSIONAGENDAOverviewIraqEconomicscenariosforIraqRequiredinvestments * Assumingacapitalproductivityof0.2Source: McKinseyanalysisGDP2003

(bnUSD)30200-300Investmentrequired*

(bnUSD)1GDP2013

(bnUSD)70-90Investmentrequired*

(bnUSD)2250-350GDP2013

(bnUSD)80-100Investmentrequired*

(bnUSD)3350-500GDP2013

bnUSD100-130ESTIMATEOFREQUIREDINVESTMENTSINTOIRAQOVERTHENEXTDECADEToachievethe‘WorldClass’scenarioIraq’seconomyrequiresUSD250-350billionininvestments,mostofwhichwillhavetobeFDI,overthenextdecadeESTIMATEFORDISCUSSIONAssuminganaveragecapitalproductivityof0.2

Source: GlobalInsight;McKinseyanalysisOilandgasConstructionCommunity,socialandpersonalservicesAgricultureRetail/WholesaleCommunicationincl.telecomManufacturingTransportationFinancialservicesincl.RealestateOther(incl.Utilities)Sectorsize-2008ShareofGDPin%in200860107554332134-4264332-321-211100ESTIMATEDPOTENTIALSECTORSIZEBy2008,Iraq’seconomyislikelytocontinuetobedominatedbytheOil/gassectorESTIMATEbnUSD57-67TotalScenario2:GDPgrowthrateat11-13%GDPasanindicatorofthecapabilityofaneconomyto‘addvalue’Source: GlobalInsight,McKinseyanalysisBy2010IraqcangenerateannualoilrevenuesofaboutUSD44billion(assuming80%exportandapriceofUSD20perbarrel)

Source: PFCEconomy2001200220032004200520062007200820092010Raisingproductionto6mb/drequiresUSD30-35billionofinvestmentsRehabilitatingofexistinginfrastructurewillrequireUSD3-6billionofinvestmentsESTIMATEESTIMATEDIRAQIOILPRODUCTIONIncreasingIraq’soilcapacitywillrequiresignificantinvestmentsmbarrelperdaySource: McKinseyOil&gasReestablishingandincreasingoilproductioncapacityto6-7millionbarrelsperdayby2010USD35-40billionUtilitiesRe-constructionofbasicinfrastructuresuchastransportfacilities,telecommunicationsandutilities(powercapacitycurrentlyat1.800MWcomparedto9.500MWpre1990)USD10-15billionjustforelectricityandtelecomEstimatesforrebuildingIraqvaryfromabout$20billionayearforseveralyearstoasmuchas$600billionoveradecadebecausethescaleofreconstructionisdifficulttoestimateEducationRebuildingandupgradingofprimary,secondaryandtertiaryeducationalinstitutionsUSD6-12billionHealthcareReestablishingpre1980healthcarefacilitiesandstandardsUSD10-20billionESTIMATETransportinfrastructureRebuilding40,000kmofpavedroads,3mainrailwaylines,3mainairports,2portsSeveralbillionsHousing/offices…………RebuildingIraq’sbasichardinfrastructurewillbechallengingandwillrequiresubstantialinvestmentsoverthenextdecadeESTIMATEDINVESTMENTRQUIREMENTSIndustrialinfrastructureRebuildingIraq’sindustrialbase(petrochemical,buildingmaterials,mining,consumergoods,etc.)?Source: McKinsey,UnitedStatesDepartmentofDefense,USAIDWebsiteUSAIDCONTRACTS/GRANTSAwardedcontractsandgrantsPersonnelSupport(AwardedtoInternationalResourcesGroup,7/2//03)SeaportAdministration(AwardedtoStevedoringServicesofAmerica,24/3//03)PrimaryandSecondaryEducation(AwardedtoCreativeAssociates,11/4//03)LocalGovernance(AwardedtoResearchTriangleInstitute,11/4/03)CapitalConstruction(AwardedtoBechtel,17/4/03)TheaterLogisticalSupport(Inter-agencyagreementawardedtotheAirForceContractAugmentationProgram(AFCAP)on17/2/03)AirportAdministration(awardedtoSkyLinkAirandLogisticssupporton5/5/2003)PublicHealth(AwardedtoAbtAssociates,30/4/03)BacktoSchoolCampaign(AwardedtoUNICEF,8/4//03)HealthWaterandSanitationServices(AwardedtoUNICEFon28/3//03)HealthStrengtheningSystems(AwardedtoWHO,28/3//03)CommunityActionProgram(Awardedtonumberofrelieforganizationsincl.MercyCorps,IRD,SavetheChildrenFederation,27/05/2003)

NOTCOMPREHENSIVEUptoUSD680millionUptoUSD168millionUptoUSD63millionUASAIDhasawardedannumberofcontractsandthereareaboutUSD6.7billioninfundsavailabletorebuildIraqAvailablefundsources:USD1.7billionoffrozenIraqigovernmentassetsintheUS.USD700millionofIraqigovernmentcashseizedinIraq.USD1.9billioninpledgesfromtheinternationalcommunityandotherassistanceoffers.USD2.5billionappropriatedfromUSCongressforreconstruction.Source: McKinseyCreateanenablingandopeneconomicenvironmentAddresskeyeconomicgovernanceissuessuchastaxation,landownership,companylaws,industryde-/regulationandinvestorprotectionTheimplementedpoliticalandeconomicgovernancemodelwillbeessentialforbuildinginvestorconfidenceImplementingthe‘right’long-termeconomicgovernancemodelwillbeessentialforattractingtheforeigninvestmentnecessarytorebuildIraqFORDISCUSSIONKEYREQUIREMENTSTOATTRACTFOREIGNINVESTMENTSBuildaconstitutionalstateImplementthekeybuildingblocksforanconstit