欧洲的燃料电池氢长途卡车：总拥有成本分析-2022-11-商用车

WHITEPAPERSEPTEMBER2022FUEL-CELLHYDROGENLONG-HAULTRUCKSINEUROPE:ATOTALCOSTOFOWNERSHIPANALYSISHusseinBasma,YuanrongZhou,andFelipeRodríguezcommunications@twitter@theicctBEIJING|BERLIN|SANFRANCISCO|SÃOPAULO|WASHINGTON ACKNOWLEDGMENTSTheauthorsthankallinternalreviewersofthisreportfortheirguidanceandconstructivecomments,withspecialthankstoChelseaBaldino,OscarDelgado,BenSharpe,andZifeiYang(InternationalCouncilonCleanTransportation).Inaddition,theauthorsthankallexternalreviewers—PatrickPlötzandSteffenLink(FraunhoferInstituteforSystemsandInnovationResearch),PhilippRose(PwCStrategy&Deutschland),JuliusJöhrensandJuliaPelzeter(InstitutfürEnergie-undUmweltforschung),KatharinaGöckeler(InstitutfürangewandteÖkologie),MatteoCraglia(InternationalTransportForum),andBessieNoll(EidgenössischeTechnischeHochschuleZürich)—forprovidingcommentsonanearlierversionofthisreport.Theirreviewsdonotimplyanyendorsementofthecontentofthisreport.Editor:GaryGardnerForadditionalinformation:InternationalCouncilonCleanTransportationEuropeFasanenstrasse85,10623Berlin,GermanyThisworkwasgenerouslysupportedbytheEuropeanClimateFoundation.Responsibilityfortheinformationandviewssetoutinthisreportlieswiththeauthors.TheEuropeanClimateFmunications@||@TheICCT©2022InternationalCouncilonCleanTransportationEXECUTIVESUMMARYRoadfreightactivityisexpectedtogrowcontinuouslythrough2050,offsettingtheexpectedCO2reductionbenefitsmandatedbyheavy-dutyvehicle(HDV)CO2standardsintheEuropeanUnion(EU).FortheEUtoreachitscarbonneutralitygoalsbymid-century,moreambitiousCO2reductiontargetsarewarranted.Suchatransitiontowardalow-andeventuallyazero-carboneconomywillrequireashiftfrominternalcombustionenginestozero-emissionHDVtechnologies.Fuelcelltrucksareadecarbonizationoptionthatcouldhelpachievethesegoals.However,theeconomicviabilityofthistechnologyisstilluncertain.Thisstudyevaluatesthetotalcostofownership(TCO)offuelcellelectrictrucks(FCETs),focusingonlong-haultractor-trailers,thehighest-emittingHDVsegmentintheEU.ThegeographicscopeofthisstudyincludessevenEuropeancountries—France,theUnitedKingdom,Germany,Italy,Spain,theNetherlands,andPoland—representingmorethan75%ofHDVregistrationsintheEUin2020.TheTCOisevaluatedthroughadetailedanalysisofthedifferentcostsfacingtruckoperators,includingtruckacquisitioncosts,renewableelectrolysishydrogenanddieselfuelcosts,maintenancecosts,roadtolls,andothercountry-specifictaxesandlevies.Theanalysisisconductedfromafirst-userperspectiveovera5-yearownershipperiod.Wearriveatthefollowingkeyfindings:»Fuelcelllong-haultruckscanreachTCOparitywiththeirdieselcounterpartsby2030inEuropeiftheat-the-pumpgreenhydrogenfuelpriceisaround4€/kg.Thebreak-evenhydrogenpricevariesamongthecountriesconsideredinthisstudy;thehighestbreak-evenpriceisrecordedintheUnitedKingdomat5€/kg,andthelowestisfoundinPolandat3.5€/kg.Thisdisparityisdrivenbythecountry-specificdieselfuelprices,roadtolls,andothertaxesandlevies.Thebreak-evenhydrogenpricestoachievetotalcostofownershipparityby2030betweenFCETsanddieseltrucksareshowninFigureES1.5€/kg55€/kg3.5€/kg4.2€/kg4.0€/kg4.0€/kg3.8€/kgFigureES1.Break-evenhydrogenpricetoachievetotalcostofownershipparityby2030betweenfuelcellelectricanddieseltrucksinselectedcountries.iICCTWHITEPAPER|FUEL-CELLHYDROGENLONG-HAULTRUCKSINEUROPEHydrogenprice(€/kg)4.40€/kgg277€/kgHydrogenprice(€/kg)4.40€/kgg277€/kg»HydrogenfuelsubsidieswillbeneededtojustifythebusinesscaseforFCETsinEuropeduringthisdecade.Theexpectedhydrogenfuelpriceishigherthanthebreak-evenpricerequiredtoachieveTCOparityby2030.Subsidiesneededvaryfrom1.2€/kgintheNetherlandstomorethan4€/kginItalyandGermany,asshowninFigureES2.Thepriceofhydrogenfuelwillbetheprimarydriverofthetechnology’seconomicviabilityastheretailpricegapbetweenFCETsanddieseltrucksisexpectedtonarrowsignificantlyby2030.9876543210Break-evenH2priceExpectedH2price4.16€/kg2.64€/k2.19€/kg1.18€/kg.2.48€/kgFranceGermanyItalyNetherlandsPFranceGermanyItalyNetherlandsPolandSpainKingdomFigureES2.Hydrogenfuelsubsidyneededtoachievetotalcostofownershipparitybetweenfuelcellelectrictrucksanddieseltrucksby2030,assumingonsitehydrogenproductionthroughrenewableelectrolysisBasedonthesefindings,werecommendthefollowing:»Increasetheambitionoftheheavy-dutyvehicleCO2standardsasmorestringentstandardsareneededtocomplywiththeEUClimateLaw.Zero-emissiontruckshavetheabilitytoreplacethecurrentdieselfleets,significantlyreducingtheheavy-dutyvehiclesectorCO2emissions.Greaterstringencycanprovidecertaintytoinvestinfuelcelltrucksandotherzero-emissiontechnologies,whichwouldhelptoelevatetheirmarketdemand.Thiscanrampupthetechnologyeconomiesofscale,reducingitstotaldeploymentcosts.»ExpeditetheimplementationoftheEurovignettedirectiveintonationallawandfullyexemptzero-emissiontrucksfromroadtolls.RoadtollsareasignificantcontributortotheTCOoflong-haultrucksingeneral.SimilartowhatiscurrentlyimplementedinGermany,a100%roadtollwaiverforzero-emissiontruckscanreducetheTCOoffuelcelltrucksby14%to25%bytheendofthedecade,helpingfuelcelltruckstoachieveTCOparitywithdieseltrucksinFranceandtheNetherlands.Furthermore,theproposedCO2chargeofbetween0.08€/kmand0.16€/kmcannarrowtheTCOgapbetweenfuelcellanddieseltrucks.»Incentivizethepurchaseofzero-emissiontrucksandlimittheseincentivestotheirearlymarketuptakephase.Germany,France,andtheNetherlandsalreadyprovidepurchasesubsidiesbasedontheretailpricedifferentialbetweenfuelcellanddieseltrucks.ThiscanhelpreducetheTCOgapbetweenthetwotechnologies.Becausethesesubsidiesaredesignedonapricedifferentialbasis,theywilldecreaseandeventuallybephasedoutastheretailpricesofzero-emissionanddieseltrucksbecomecomparable.AlthoughpurchasepremiumscannotcovertheentireTCOgapbetweenfuelcellanddieseltrucks,theycansignificantlyreducethecapitalinvestmentneededtorampupmarketdemandforthetechnology.»Incentivizedemonstrationprojectsoffuelcelltrucksinreal-worldapplications.ThiswouldhelpinclosingtheexistingknowledgegapsandaddresssomeiiICCTWHITEPAPER|FUEL-CELLHYDROGENLONG-HAULTRUCKSINEUROPEuncertaintiesaroundthetechnology,mainlyregardingfueleconomy,refueling,andcosts.Thiswouldhelpinidentifyingthereal-worldchallengesthathinderwide-scaledeploymentoffuelcelltrucks.iiiICCTWHITEPAPER|FUEL-CELLHYDROGENLONG-HAULTRUCKSINEUROPETABLEOFCONTENTSExecutivesummary iIntroduction 1Usecasedefinition 2Totalcostofownershipmodeling 4Fixedcosts 4Financing,taxes,andvignette 8Operatingcosts 8Hydrogenprice 9Maintenancecosts 12Roadtolls 12Resultsanddiscussion 14Keyfindings 14Analysisofpolicymeasures 22Sensitivityanalysis 27Impactoffuelcellstacksize 28Conclusionsandpolicyrecommendations 30References 32ivICCTWHITEPAPER|FUEL-CELLHYDROGENLONG-HAULTRUCKSINEUROPELISTOFFIGURESFigureES1.Break-evenhydrogenpricetoachievetotalcostofownershipparityby2030betweenfuelcellelectricanddieseltrucksinselectedcountries iFigureES2.Hydrogenfuelsubsidyneededtoachievetotalcostofownershipparitybetweenfuelcellelectrictrucksanddieseltrucksby2030consideringonsitehydrogenproductionthroughrenewableelectrolysis iiFigure1.Dieselandhydrogenfuelconsumptionfortractor-trailerssimulatedoverthelong-haulcycleandatseveralpayloadsfortruckmodelyears2022and2030 3Figure2.Estimatedretailpriceofthedieselandfuelcellelectrictractor-trailersbetween2022and2030 6Figure3.Fuelcelltractor-trailerretailpricebreakdownbetween2022and2030 6Figure4.Tractor-trailer’sdepreciationcurvesasafunctionofservicelife,basedonannualvehiclekilometerstraveled 7Figure5.Truckannualmileageasafunctionofserviceyears(long-haulapplications) 8Figure6.Amortizedhydrogenfuelingstationcostbetween2022and2035atdifferentutilizationrates.Caseofasmallhydrogenstationwithacapacityof400kg/day 10Figure7.At-the-pumpgreenhydrogenpricebetween2022and2035forseveralEuropeancountriesassumingthefollowinghydrogenrefuelingstationutilizationrates(30%in2022,40%in2025,50%in2030,and70%in2035) 11Figure8.EvolutionofdieselfuelgrosspriceinseveralEuropeancountriesbetween2021andthefirstquarterof2022 12Figure9.NetpresentvalueofTCOoffuelcellanddieseltractor-trailersasafunctionofyearofpurchase,calculatedoverthefirst5yearsofownershipandassumingfixeddieselfuelpricesbetween2022and2030,withoutpolicyintervention 15Figure10.Country-specificTCObreakdownfortruckspurchasedin2022,2025,and2030,withoutpolicyintervention 17Figure11.NetpresentvalueofTCOoffuelcellanddieseltractor-trailersasafunctionofyearofpurchase,calculatedoverthefirst5yearsofownershipandassumingfixeddieselfuelpricesbetween2022and2030withoutpolicyinterventionandwithvariouslevelsofat-the-pumphydrogenfuelprices 18Figure12.Break-evenat-the-pumphydrogenpricetoachieveTCOparityby2025and2030betweenfuelcellanddieseltractor-trailers,withoutpolicyintervention 19Figure13.Break-evenandexpectedat-the-pumphydrogenpricefortruckspurchasedin2025and2030,withoutpolicyintervention 20Figure14.Totalcostofownershipparitysensitivitytodieselandhydrogenfuelpriceswithoutpolicyintervention 22Figure15.ImpactofpurchasesubsidiesontheTCOoffuelcelltractor-trailers 24Figure16.ImpactofseveralpolicymeasuresontheTCOoffuelcelltractor-trailers,Germany,purchaseyear2025 26Figure17.Impactofseveralpolicymeasuresonthetotalcostofownershipoffuelcelltractor-trailers,Germany,purchaseyear2030 27Figure18.Impactofseveralparametersonthetotalcostofownership(TCO)gapbetweenfuelcellanddieseltrucks.Resultscorrespondtoa2030truckmodelyear 28vICCTWHITEPAPER|FUEL-CELLHYDROGENLONG-HAULTRUCKSINEUROPEFigure19.Impactofoversizedfuelcellstackonthetotalcostofownership,Germany,truckpurchaseyear2025 29Figure20.Impactofoversizedfuelcellstackonthetotalcostofownership,Germany,truckpurchaseyear2030 29LISTOFTABLESTable1.Technicalspecificationsofthedieselandfuelcelltractor-trailers 2Table2.Fuelcellelectrictruckbasegliderdirectmanufacturingcostsin2022-2030 4Table3.Directmanufacturingcostsoffuelcellelectrictruckpowerunitandenergystoragecosts 5Table4.Indirectcostmultipliersfortechnologieswithahightechnologycomplexitylevel 5Table5.Summaryoffuelcelltractor-trailersresidualvaluesafter5yearsofoperation 7Table6.Summaryoftruckregistrationandownershiptaxes(Schrotenetal.,2019)andfixedvignettes 8Table7.HydrogenproductioncostinEuropeincludingcostofcompressionto700bar 9Table8.Dieselfuelpricesin2021inEuropeancountriesofinterestinthisstudy 11Table9.Maintenancecostbreakdownfordieselandfuelcelltractor-trailers 12Table10.Summaryofdistance-basedroadtollsinEUmemberstates 13Table11.Five-yeartotalcostofownershipgapbetweenfuelcellanddieseltractor-trailersfortruckspurchasedin2030withoutpolicyintervention 16Table12.Summaryofpurchasesubsidiesforfuelcelltrucksinthecountriesstudied 23Table13.Impactofexemptingfuelcelltractor-trailersfromroadtollsonTCOtimetoparityrelativetotheirdieselcounterparts 25Table14.Impactofaddingexternal-costCO2emissionschargetoTCOtimetoparity,forfuelcellanddieseltractor-trailers 26Table15.Summaryofsensitivityanalysisparameters.Technologyparametersarerepresentativeofa2030truckmodelyear 27Table16.Fuelcelltruckhydrogenfuelconsumptionfordifferentfuelcellstacksizesatdifferentpayloads,currentandfuturetechnologies 28viICCTWHITEPAPER|FUEL-CELLHYDROGENLONG-HAULTRUCKSINEUROPEINTRODUCTIONTheEuropeanUnion(EU)hascommittedtoachievingclimateneutralitybymid-century,asindicatedbyadoptionoftheEuropeanClimateLaw(EuropeanCommission,2021d).Thetransportsector,particularlyheavy-dutyvehicles(HDV),willcontributesignificantlytoaEuropeancarbon-neutraleconomy.Thegrowingpreferenceforzero-emissionvehicles(ZEV)hasbeenevidentinthelight-dutyvehicle(LDV)sector,withelectricvehiclesaccountingfor11%ofnewsalesinEuropein2020(Mocketal.,2021).Meanwhile,theHDVmarketinEuroperemainsdominatedbyfossilfuel-poweredinternalcombustionengines,withZEVsaccountingforjust2%ofsalesinthesameyear(Basma&Rodríguez,2021).ElectrifyingtheHDVsectorbecomesmoreimportantwhenconsideringthesector’slong-termgrowth:roadfreightactivityincreasedbyanaverageof1.8%perannumbetween1995and2018,comparedto1.0%forroadpassengeractivityoverthesameperiod(EuropeanCommission,2020a).ThisgrowthinactivityisexpectedtooffsetthebenefitsofCO2reductiondrivenbytheHDVCO2standardsinEurope,whichmandatea15%and30%reductioninemissionsby2025and2030,respectively,relativeto2019.Thenetresultisan8%projectedgrowthinemissionsby2050(Mulhollandetal.,2022).WithmoreambitiousCO2reductiontargetsneeded,ZE-HDVswillplayapivotalroleinachievingtheEU’sclimateneutralitygoals.SeveralZE-HDVtechnologiesexistwiththepotentialtodeliverreal-worldreductionsinlifecyclegreenhousegas(GHG)emissionsoftrucks.Theseincludebattery-electrictrucks(BETs),fuelcellelectrictrucks(FCETs),andoverheadcatenarytrucks.WhileseveraltruckmanufacturershavealreadyannouncedanddeployedmanyBETandFCETmodels,highmarketdemandhasnotmaterializedasthereisahighlevelofuncertaintyregardingtheeconomicviabilityofthesealternativetechnologies.ToassesstheeconomicviabilityofZE-HDVs,thisstudymodelsthetotalcostofownership(TCO)offuel-cellelectriclong-haultrucksbasedoncurrentstate-of-the-arttechnology.ItdeterminesthecurrentTCOdisparitybetweenthistechnologyanditsdieselcounterpart.ThisTCOanalysisisperformedfromafirst-userperspectiveovera5-yearanalysisperiod.TheTCOanalysisisbasedondetailedassumptionsofcurrentandfuturefixedandoperatingcosts.ArecentlypublishedICCTstudyfocusedontheTCOofBETsinEurope(Basma,Saboori,etal.,2021).ThisreportsolelyfocusesonassessingtheTCOoffuel-celltractor-trailers.ThestudycoverssevenEuropeancountriesaccountingformorethan75%oftheEuropeanHDVmarket(Diazetal.,2021):France,theUnitedKingdom,Germany,Italy,Spain,theNetherlands,andPoland.Finally,thestudydiscussesthesupportingincentivesandpoliciesrequiredtoovercometheexistingTCOgapbetweenfuelcellanddiesellong-haultractor-trailersduringthisdecade.Suchpoliciescanstimulatemarketdemandforthetechnology,especiallyduringtheearlymarketuptakephase.1ICCTWHITEPAPER|FUEL-CELLHYDROGENLONG-HAULTRUCKSINEUROPEimprovementsuchimprovementsuchaschassislightweightingasdetailedin&USECASEDEFINITIONThisstudyfocusesonquantifyingthetotalcostofownershipoffuelcellelectrictractor-trailersinlong-hauloperationsandcomparingtheireconomicperformancetotheperformanceoftheirdieselcounterparts.Theusecaseofinterestlooksatalong-haulapplicationwithadailydrivingrangeofupto660km,whichcovers95%ofheavy-dutytruckapplicationsinEurope(Basma,Saboori,etal.,2021;Wentzel,2020).Thedieselandfuelcelltractor-trailers’maintechnicalspecificationsarepresentedinTable1.Thedieselvehicleisrepresentativeofatypical4x2tractor-trailerinlong-hauloperationinEurope,andthefuelcellvehicleisdesignedtoperformsimilarlytothedieselvehicle,takingintoaccountthecurrentlyavailableFCETmodelsinEurope.1Table1.Technicalspecificationsofthedieselandfuelcelltractor-trailersDieseltruckFuelcelltruckAxleconfiguration4x24x2Grossvehicleweight40tonnes42tonnesUnladenweighta)Maximumpayload25.1–26.9tonnesPowertrainratedpower350kW350kWFuelcellsystempower-180kWTransmission12-speed2-speedDailydrivingrange660km660kmBatterysize-72kWhThetruckunladenweightisestimatedusingabottom-upapproachconsideringtheexpectedtechnology(BasmaRodríguez,2022).TheFCET’sgrossvehicleweightis42tonnescomparedtothe40-tonnedieseltractor-trailer,therebyincorporatingthetwoextratonneexemptionforzero-emissiontrucksgrantedintheHDVCO2standardsinEurope.Themaximumpayloadofthetrucksvariesasthetrucks’curbweightdecreasesinthelongtermduetochassislightweighting,whichincreasesthepayloadcapacity.Compressedhydrogengasat700barisconsideredinthisstudy.Liquidhydrogenisnotcommoninroadtransportationandisthusnotevaluatedinthisstudy.Finally,theFCETisequippedwitha72-kWhlithium-ionhigh-powerbatterytoassistthefuelcellunitduringpeakpowerdemandandtorecoverpartofthevehicle’skineticenergyduringbraking.TheenergyefficiencyofbothtrucksisestimatedthroughdetailedvehicleenergyconsumptionmodelingandsimulationusingthecommercialtoolSimcenterAmesim(Siemens,2020).ThedieselvehiclemodelissimulatedunderVECTO2-likeconditions,theofficialvehiclesimulationmodelusedtocertifytheCO2emissionsoftrucks(itdoesnotcoverfuelcellelectrictrucks).Consumptionofdieselandhydrogenfuelisestimatedbysimulatingthevirtualmodelsoverthelong-haulcycleatalowpayloadof2.9tonnesandareferencepayloadof19.3tonnes,asdefinedbyVECTO.DetailedanalysisofthetechnologycanbefoundinBasma&Rodríguez(2022).DieseltruckfuelconsumptionandFCEThydrogenconsumptionareshowninFigure1.Thedieseltruckfuelconsumptionatthecombinedload(definedas70-30%reference-lowpayload,accordingtoHDVCO2standards)isaround30l/100km,anumberthathasthepotentialtodecreaseto23l/100kmby2030duetotechnologyimprovement1SeeTable1in(Basma&Rodríguez,2022).2VECTO(VehicleEnergyConsumptioncalculationTool)isthesimulationtoolthathasbeendevelopedbytheEuropeanCommissionfordeterminingCOemissionsandfuelconsumptionfromHDVs.2ICCTWHITEPAPER|FUEL-CELLHYDROGENLONG-HAULTRUCKSINEUROPEDieselconsumption(l/100km)Equivalentdieselconsumption(l/100kmDieselconsumption(l/100km)Equivalentdieselconsumption(l/100km)33.39.08.326.66.6Fuelcelltractor-trailer20222030Referencepayload(19.3tonnes)CombinedpayloadLowpayload(2.6tonnes)asdetailedinDelgadoetal.(2017).TheFCETsconsumehydrogenfuelintherangeof8.3kg/100kmatcombinedloadfortruckmodelyear2022,avaluethathasthepotentialtodecreaseto~6.1kg/100kmby2030.MoreinsightintotheFCET’senergyefficiencycanbefoundinaseparatevehicletechnologyanalysisconductedbyICCTinBasma&Rodríguez(2022)andBasma,Beys,etal.(2021).403530252050Dieseltractor-trailerHydrogenconsumptionHydrogenconsumption(kg/100km)8642033.218.433.218.42022203030.725.2225.223.5Referencepayload(19.3tonnes)CombinedpayloadLowpayload(2.6tonnes)Figure1.Dieselandhydrogenfuelconsumptionfortractor-trailerssimulatedoverthelong-haulcycleandatseveralpayloadsfortruckmodelyears2022and2030Althoughimprovementinenergyefficiencywillallowsmallerandlighterhydrogentanksonboardtomeetacertaindrivingrangedesignpoint,itisassumedthatthehydrogentanksizewillbemaximizedtoattainthehighestpossibledrivingranges.GiventhetruckgeometryandvolumeconstraintsasdiscussedinBasma&Rodríguez(2022),themaximumstoragecapacityforatypeIV70MPahydrogentankis55kg,resultinginadrivingrangeof650kmto880kmbetween2022and2030,basedonthetruckhydrogenfuelconsumptionunderthecombinedpayloadasshowninFigure1.Thiswillbeenoughtocoverthedailydrivingrangesof660kmillustratedinthisusecase.3ICCTWHITEPAPER|FUEL-CELLHYDROGENLONG-HAULTRUCKSINEUROPElatter’slatter’scostisincludedinthefuelcellsystemcost,asdiscussedbelow,inadditiontotheotherbalanceofplantTOTALCOSTOFOWNERSHIPMODELINGThetotalcostofownership(TCO)ofFCETsisevaluatedforafirstuserovera5-yearperiod.Inthissection,theTCOmethodologyisexplained.ApreviouslypublishedstudybyICCT(Basma,Saboori,etal.,2021)describesindetailtheadoptedmethodsandassumptionstoassesstheTCOofdieseltrucksandbattery-electrictrucksinEuropefortractor-trailerapplications.ThisstudywillbrieflyrecallsomeofthoseassumptionsandkeyfigureswhilegivingmoreemphasistoFCET-specificcostssuchasthefuelcellunit,hydrogentank,andhydrogenfuel.FIXEDCOSTSTruckfixedcostsincludethevehiclepurchasecost,residualvalue,financing,taxes,andallexpensesindependentofthevehicle’skilometersdriven.VehiclepriceandresidualvalueThecostofadieseltractor-trailertodayisestimatedat€133,000,includingthebasegliderandthetrailer.In2030,thiscostisexpectedtoincreaseto€145,000duetoimprovementsinroadloadtechnologies,dieselenginetechnologyandemissionscontrolsystems(Meszleretal.,2018).RegardingtheFCETcost,thevehicleretailpriceisdirectlyrelatedtothefuelcellunitratedpowerandhydrogenstoragetanksize.TheFCETbasegliderdirectmanufacturingcost(DMC),excludingthepowerunits(fuelcellsandbattery)andhydrogenstoragetank,isdetailedinTable2fora2022modelyeartruckbasedoncostdataprovidedbyRicardoStrategicConsulting(Anculleetal.,2022;Sharpe&Basma,2022).ThebasegliderDMCincludesthechassis,powerelectronics,aircompressor,steeringpump,airconditioningandheatingunits,andbatterythermalmanagementsystems.ItisassumedthatthecostsofthecomponentspresentedinTable2arefixedbetween2022and2030.Thetrailerretailpriceis€33,000today,anditisassumedtoincreaseby€4,822by2030duetotheintroductionofnewroad-loadtechnologies(Meszleretal.,2018).Table2.Fuelcellelectrictruckbasegliderdirectmanufacturingcostsin2022-20303ComponentSpecificationsCostmultiplier(€/kW)Totalcost(€)Chassisa)--25,375Powerelectronics350kW22.5Aircompressorb)6kW,2507,500Steeringpump9kW240Airconditioning10kW58580Heater10kW63630Thermalmanagement350kW2,625Totalcost--46,745Thisincludesaxles,suspension,wheels,steering,cabexteriors,andinteriors.Thisisthepneumaticbrakingsystemaircompressorandnotthefuelcellsystemairloopcompressor.The.Basedonacomprehensivemeta-analysisofthepurchasecostsofZE-HDVsconductedbyICCT(Sharpe&Basma,2022),theDMCofthefuelcellunit,hydrogenstoragetank,electricdrive,andbatteryaresummarizedinTable3.In2020,thereportedfuelcellunitDMCrangedwid