chinaasia textile forum2016与纺织国际论坛-the world bank全球价值链新趋势及海外投资

NewTrendsofGlobalValueChainandChineseOverseasInvestmentsDouglasZhihuaZeng( SeniorEconomist(高级 WorldBank(世界银行)MarchWorldtradegrowthremainedmodestfollowingthreeyearsofweakexpansion.In2015,thevalueoftotalgoodstradefell13.8%—thebiggestplungesince2009;butintermsofvolume,itgrew2.5%,lowerthantheglobalGDPgrowthof3.1%.Annualincreasesinmerchandisetradeinvolumetermsjust2.5%in2013and2014,and2.2%inIn2014,theexportsofdevelo andemergingeconomiesgrewfasterthanthoseofdevelopedcountries,3.1%intheformerand2.0%inthelatter.Meanwhile,importsofdevelocountriesgrewmoreslowlythanthoseofdevelopedeconomies,1.8%comparedto2.9%.Seasonallyadjustedquarterlytradevolumeforthefirstquarterof2015showedthesametrend.StructuralShiftofGlobalTrade(inrelationtoglobalGDP)Flowsoffinance,goodsandserviceshaveslowed—fallingfromapeakof53percentofglobaloutputin2007to39percentin2014.ChinaslowSlowrecoveryinChinaEmergenceofthedigitaleconomy:increasedautomationandnewmanufacturingtechnologies,including3Dprinting,impactthetradeofgoodsTradeUsedtoGrowaboutwiceasrapidlyasGDP••ThefallingofglobaltradecoincideswithasurgeoftransborderdataTheflowofdigitalinformationaroundtheworldmorethandoubledbetween2013and2015,toanestimated290terabytesperThatfigurewillgrowbyathirdagainthisyear,meaningthatbytheendof2016companiesandindividualsaroundtheworldwillsend20timesmoredataacrossbordersthantheydidin2008.eMajorcompaniesadoptnewtechnologies,likGeneralElectric,whichisusing3Dprinterstomakefuelnozzlesforjetenginesandexpectsitsaviationunittobemanufacturing100,000partsusingthetechnologyby2020.eIn2014,cross-borderflowscapital,goods,servicesanddataaddedanextra$7.8tntotheglobaleconomy.Theaddedvalueofdataflowsaloneaccountedfor$2.8tnofthattotal,slightlymorethanthe$2.7tnattributedtotheglobaltradeinShareofdevelocountriesinglobalvalueaddedtradeandingrossexports,1990-2010China’sShareofGlobalManufacturingValueRapidGrowthRapidGrowthofChina’sDomesticValueBetween2000and2011,China’sratioofdomesticvalueaddedingrossexportsincreasedfrom63percentto68ChinahasreducedrelianceonforeignvalueaddedandincreasedparticipationinGVCinthepastdecadeChinahasChinahasachievedcertainlevelofindustrialChinahasachievedspectaculargrowthofdomesticvalueaddedembodiedingrossexports,asfirmssubstituteddomesticinputsforimportedones,suggestingupgradinginbothupstreamindustriesaswellasintheprocessingtradesectorChinahaslargeropportunitiesforfurtherlengtheningthevaluechaindomesticallyinsectorswhereitsimportstendtobeupstreamandexportstendtobedownstreamThemeasureofupstreamnessor“distancetofinaldemand”roughlycapturesthenumberofproductionstagesbetweenthecountry’sproducersandfinalconsumersandthusindicatesthepositioninthevalueOpportunitiestoincreasethedomesticvalueaddedarehighestintextilesandelectronics,whichshowsthelargestgapbetweenimportandexportupstreamness,followedbytheelectronicssector.However,whilethegapincreasedinelectronicssectorovertheperiod2000-13,itactuallydeclinedinthetextilessector.ThisismainlybecauseChina’sexportbasketinelectronicsmovedclosertofinaldemand,whiletextileexportsmovedfurtherupstream.TextilesisoneofthestrongestsectorsinTextilesistheLargestbuyerandsellerofvalueadded,withJapanandKoreathemostsignificantpartners.Chinaisthebiggestexporterwithamarketshareof19.5percent,followedbyItaly(11percent)andKoreaChinaabsorbs27.5percentofglobalvalueaddedflows,followedbyItaly,whichisthesecondmarketforforeignvalueaddedintextiles(12.9percent)thenbyFrance(5.1%)andGermany(4.2%)China’sexportswasUS$112billion,35.6%oftheglobalmarketshareSharesofTextileexportsintotalmerchandiseexports:fivegenerations:Japan,Korea,China,Indonesiaand

LinandWangChinahasachievedexportcompetitivenessinmanysectors,butisChina’sindustrytrulyinnovative?–AGVCDomesticvalueadded(tyvsTechnologyintensityofthesectorswherethecountryhasadvantagesContributionofthehigh-valueaddedservicesforthemanufacturingsector,especiallyR&D,technology,skillsandbusinessContributionofservices,manufacturingandprimaryexportstotheGVCparticipationbyeconomy,1995and2008(%)Valueaddedofservicesinmanufacturingsectors’exports,TheforeignvalueaddedcontributionofservicesinmanufacturingexportsisalsoverylowintextilesChallengesandOpportunitiesforFutureIndustrialFastchangingnewSluggishglobalHigh-costofExcesscapacity-zombieWhattoPromotingtechnologyinnovationandindustrialOpeninguptheservicesectorsandencouragingStimulatinggreenGoingGoingAbroad-OneBeltOneTheglobalslowdownintradecouldbeoffsetbythe“ChinaNewSilkRoad”-ancienttraderoutesinAsia,centralAsiaandtheMiddleEastChineseGlobalIn2014,China’sglobalFDIUS$102.9billion,increasing14.1%,ranked3rdintheworld.ByJuly31,2014,China’stotaloutwardFDIstockwasUS$713billion,ranked11thintheworld. 年日,中国对外直接投资存量达 ChineseODI(flowsandstocks,ChineseGlobalFDI–Selected55200720082009201020112012

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Lekki esinEthiopia(埃塞俄比亚的园区Eastern ASuccessfulstory:Huajian--AChineseInvestorinShoeManufacturingforExports对外投资的成功案例 鞋ADongguan,Guangdongbased20millionpairsperInEthiopia,openedtwoproductionlinesateasternindustry 3500employeesmostlyUSandEuropeanmarkets:57percentofEthiopiamarketshare,morethandoubledEthiopia’sshoeexportsHuajian:Reasonsforinvestingin投资埃塞俄比亚StablemacroCheaplaborcostcomparingtoPlentyof sofDutyfreeandquotafreeexportstoEuropeanandUSmarket(EBAandHuajianManufactoryinEthiopia（在埃KeyChallengesforChineseLackofunderstandingofthelocallegalregulatorypolicyculturalandbusinessThecoordinationandcommunicationchallenges.（协调和交流上的 Challengingbusinessenvironment（商业环境方面 – Lackofinternationaltalents（缺乏了解中外的国际人才PoorinfrastructureFirmsinvestinginAfricafaceseriouschallengesintermsofthebasicinfrastructure,suchastheroads,power,water…（ PoorinvestmentfeasibilitystudyandbusinessplanwhichcancauseseriousP