国际金融托马斯复习资料

C2国际收支PaymentsamongNations复式记账Double-entrybookkeeping概Anyexchangeautomaticallyentersthebalance-of-paymentsaccountstwiceasacreditandasadebitofthesamevalue.规则:贷方项目Acredit（+）isflowforwhichthecountryispaid;借方项目Adebit（-）isflowforwhichthecountrymustpay.例子:1出口（贷）,进口（借）;2本国常住者为外国人提供劳务或者从外国取得投资及其他收入（贷）;而外国人为本国常住者提供劳务或从本国取得收入 （借）;3本国常住者获得（指购买）外国资产（借）,外国常住者获得本国资产（贷）;4外国人偿还债务（贷）,本国居民偿还外债（借）;5本国常住者收到国外单方面转移（贷）,本国常住者对外国单方面转移（借）;6官方储备减少（贷）,官方储备增加（借）国际收支BalanceofPayments（BOP）:Thesetofaccountsrecordingallflowsofvaluebetweenanation 'sresidentsandtheresidentsotherestoftheworldduringaperiodoftime.Freeonboard（FOB离岸价）:itimpliesthatdistributiveservicesliketransportandhandlingperformedongoodsuptothecustomsfrontieroftheeconomyfromwhichthegoodsareexportedareclassedasmerchandise.经常项目CurrentAccountbalanceItisthenetvalueoftheflowsofgoods,service,income,andUnilateraltransfers.Ifitispositive,thenationearnsthatmuchinextraassetsorreducedliabilitiesinitsdealingswithothercountries.Ifitisnegative,thecountrymustpaybygivingupassetsorincreasingitsliabilities.Goodsandservicesbalanceequalsthenetexportsofbothgoodsandservices.Itisoftencalledthetradebalance.包括:1Merchandisetradeflows;2Serviceflows;3Incomeflows;4Unilateraltransfer资本项目financialAccountBalanceThenetflowsoffinancialassetsandsimilarclaims（excludingofficialassetflows）istheprivatecapitalaccountbalanceorfinancialaccountbalance.资本项目记录的只是资产交易的本金金额(principalamounts),而投资国外资产的任何所得(earnings)均记录在经常项目中.美国居民增持外国金融资产（股票、债券或贷款凭证）,记入借方,该居民对外国付款或增加贷款,资金流出美国（-）外国居民增持美国金融资产（股票、债券或贷款凭证）,记入贷方,美国卖方（或借款人）接受外国的付款（或得到贷款）,资金流入美国（+）美国居民减持外国金融资产（股票、债券或贷款凭证）,记入贷方,该居民接受外国的付款（或收回借款）,资金流入美国（+）外国居民减持美国金融资产（股票、债券或贷款凭证）,记入借方,美国的买方（或借款人）对外国付款（或归还贷款）,资金流出美国（-）从金融资产本身流向:2和3,美国出口金融资产（exportingfinancialassets）,记为正;1和例4,美国进口金融资产（importingfinancialassets）,记为负.从资金的流向:23是资本进口（capitalimports）,14是资本出口（capitalexports）外国直接投资（foreigndirectinvestment）是:由某主体（多为跨国公司）对其控股和掌控的国外企业进行的任何一种资金出借或产权购买 .间接投资包括证券、贷款以及银行存款.投资于国外的债券和股票不属于对外直接投资 ,而是国际证券投资（internationalportfolioinvestment）.它表明投资者并不拥有被投资企业的大额股份 ,而只是将这种投资作为其多样化投资的一个组成部分.官方国际储备资产officialinternationalreserveassetsTheyaremoney-likeassetsthatareheldbygovernmentsandthatarerecognizedbygovernmentsasfullyacceptableforpaymentsbetweenthem.Themainreserveassetsare:Gold,Freeexchangecurrencies,ReservepositionintheIMF（IMF的储备头寸）,Specialdrawingright（特别提款权）官方一词用以说明此类资产是由与货币相关的政府部门掌握的资产 ,而非整个政府拥有的资产.其他"非官方"政府资产则归于私人项目类别中 .焦点是集中在调控币值这一货币管理任务.统计误差statisticaldiscrepancyIt'sthenetresultoferrorsandomissionsonboththecreditanddebitsides.Themaindifficultyisprobablythatmanypeoplesucceedinhidingtheirimports,theirimports,theirforeigninvestmentincomes,andtheircapitalflightfromtheirowngovernmentofficials.经常项目差额的宏观含义CA:CurrentaccountbalanceIf:Netforeigninvestment对外净投资S:Nationalsaving国民储蓄Id:Domesticrealinvestmentinbuildings,equipment,softwareandinventories国内直接投资Y:DomesticproductionofG&S国内商品和服务的总产出C:DomestichouseholdconsumptionofG&S本国对商品和服务的私人消费支出G:GovernmentspendingonG&S政府对商品和服务的购买X:Foreignpurchasesofthecountry 'sexpO国对本G&商品和服务购买M:Thecountry 'spurchasesofimportsofG&Sfromothercountrie本国对外国商品和服务的购买E:NationalexpenditureonG&S一国对商品和服务的总支出If:Thenetaccumulationofforeignassetsminusforeignliabilities.①CA=If②S=If+ld(ld投资于国内用于本国资本形成 ；lf:投资于国外)①②t③CA=Sld④X-M=CA⑤Y=C+Id+G+XM⑥E=C+Id+G④⑤⑥t⑦CA=YE一国经常项目盈余:①该国净对外投资为正(即该国对于其他国家来说是净债权国或投资国 ).Thecountryhaspositivelf.(thecountryisanetlenderorinvestortoothercountries)③该国国民储蓄超出国内投资.Thecountryissavingmorethaninvestingdomestically.⑦该国的国内生产超出了 (或说收入超出了)其对商品和服务的消费.Thecountryisproducingmore(andhasmoreincomefromthisproduction)thanitisspendingongoodsandservices.总差额的宏观含义TheoverallbalanceB:Officialsettlementsbalance官方结算差FA:Financialaccountbalanee金融项目差额OR:OfficialReserve官方储备资产B=CA+FA(Theofficialsettlementbalanceequalsthesumofthecurrentaccountbalanceplustheprivatecapitalaccountbalance)官方结算差额中任何不平衡都必B+OR=0由于国际收支平衡表中所有项目的总和必须为零,官方结算差额中任何不平衡都必须通过官方储备流动予以补抵（或支付））如果总差额B为盈余，即意味着本国官方储备资产的增加或外国官方储备持有本国资产的减少(即在本国的官方储备账户中有一个借方差额 ).如果总差额为赤字,即意味着本国持有的官方储备资产减少或外国官方储备中持有的本国资产累积增加 (即在本国官方储备账户有一个贷方差额).一国货币当局可以出售外币而购回本币 ，这种交易可以减少当局官方国际储备中外汇资产的持有量;或者，货币当局也可以出售本币而购买外币 ，这种交易增加了官方国际储备 .国际投资头寸Anation'sinternationalinvestmentpositionshowsitsstocksofinternationalassetsandliabilitiesatamomentoftime.一国是贷款国(lender)还是借款国(borrower)，是根据该国一定时期内经常项目差额是盈余还是赤字来判断的.一国是债权国(creditor)或是债务国(debtor)，是根据该国持有的外国资产净存量是正值还是负值来判断的 .前者涉及的是一段时期内的流量 ，后者涉及的是某一时点的存量.C3外汇市场TheForeignExchangeMarket货币交易的基本知识国际汇兑Foreignexchangeistheactoftradingdifferentnation 'smoneys.汇率Anexchangerateisthepriceofonenation'smoneyintermsofanothernation 's即期汇率Thespotexchangerateisthepricefor"immediately"exchange.远期汇率Theforwardexchangerateisthepricenowforanexchangethatwilltakeplacesometimeinthefuture.汇率报价ExchangeRateQuotation:直接标价法(AU.S.dollarpriceoftheothercurrency)、间接标价法(ThepriceoftheU.S.dollarinunitsoftheothercurrency).两者互为倒数(Thepairsofpricesarejustreciprocals)分母是外币，分子是本币，就是直接标价法；分母是本币，分子是外币,则为间接标价法.外汇市场小额交易:银行及其交易员与客户进行的交易 Thetradingdonewithcustomersiscalledtheretailpartofthemarket银行间同业市场:银行之间进行的交易 Thetradingdonebetweenthebanksactiveinthemarketiscalledtheinter-bankpartofthemarket.媒介货币VehicleCurrency:Oneforeigncurrencyisexchangedfordollars，andthesedollarsarethenexchangedfortheotherforeigncurrency.2外汇的供给与DemandandSupplyforForeignExchange2.1影响汇率的因素商品和服务出口将带来外国货币的供给以及对本币需求的增加 ；商品和服务的进口将带来对外国货币的需求和本币的供给增加 ；资本流出将致使外国货币需求以及本币供给的增加 ，资本流入将致使外国货币供给以及本币需求的增加浮动汇率FloatingExchangeRatesThespotpriceofforeigncurrencyismarket-driven,determinedbytheinteractionofprivatedemandandsupplyforthecurrency..外汇的即期价格由市场决定 ，即由对货币的私人需求与供给的相互作用而决定，市场通过价格机制出清.在浮动汇率制中，如果某种外币的需求曲线因某种原因右移 （代表对外汇需求的增加）,同时供给曲线保持不变，该外币的汇率便会上升.固定汇率FixedExchangeRatesOfficialstrivetokeeptheexchangeratevirtuallyfixed（orpegged）eveniftheratetheychoosediffersfromthecurrentequilibriumrate.Anarrowbandofexchangeratesisallowedtovary.Iftheexchangeratehitsthetoporbottomoftheband,theofficialsmustintervene. 在这种制度下即使这一汇率与当前的均衡汇率有偏差 ，官方也会尽力保持汇率基本不变（或钉住其他货币）.通常，官方会宣布一个窄幅的汇率区间，汇率可以在这一区间内变动.如果汇率达到了这一区间的上限或下限，官方必须予以干预.Underthefloating-ratesystemafallinthemarketpriceofacurrencyiscalledadepreciationofthatcurrency;ariseisanappreciation.Underthefixed-ratesystem,adiscreteofficialreductionintheotherwisefixedparvalueofacurrencyiscalledadevaluation;adiscreteraisingoftheofficialparisarevaluation.在浮动汇率中，市场价格（汇率价值）的下降被称为该货币的下浮沛场价格的上升则称为上浮.在固定汇率制下，我们将官方人为地降低货币平价的做法称为货币的贬值）;官方人为地提高货币平价称为升值.2.4各国汇率制度安排多数主要货币之间采用的都是浮动汇率 ；尽管其他很多国家政府都对外汇市场进行了一定程度的官方干预来限制汇率的波动 ,但他们也宣称实行的是浮动汇率制 ;一些国家和地区在本币与美元之间采用固定汇率;一些国家与欧元保持固定汇率.3即期外汇市场中的套汇交易套汇Arbitrage,theprocessofbuyingandsellingtomakeanearlyrisklesspureprofit,ensuresthatratesindifferentlocationsareessentiallythesame,andthatratesandcross-ratesarerelatedandconsistentamongthemselves.三角套汇thereisanopportunitytomakearisklessprofitbyarbitragingthroughthethreerates,aprocesscalledtriangulararbitrage.C4外汇期货与国际金融投资ForwardExchangeandInternationalFinancialInvestment汇率风险ExchangeRateRiskThenetworthofincome,wealthwillchangeswhenexchangerateschangeunpredictablyinthefuture.保值Hedging:Itistheactofreducingoreliminatinganetassetornetliabilitypositionintheforeigncurrency.投机Speculating:Itistheactoftakinganetassetpositionoranetliabilitypositioninsomeassetclass(inforeigncurrency).外汇期货的基本知识远期外汇合约Aforwardforeignexchangecontractisanagreementtoexchangeonecurrencyforanotheronsomedateinthefutureatapricesetnow(theforwardexchangerate).Commondatesforfutureexchangeare30,90,180daysforward.外汇期货的套期保值HedgingUsingForwardForeignExchangeHedginginvolvesacquiringanassetinaforeigncurrencytooffsetanetliabilitypositionalreadyheldintheforeigncurrency,oracquiringaliabilityinaforeigncurrencytooffsetanetassetpositionalreadyheld.Hedgingmeansavoidingbothkindsofopenpositionsinaforeigncurrency,bothlongpositionsandshortpositions.套期保值指取得某种外币资产以抵补已持有的该货币的净负债头寸,或用某种外币的净负债抵消已持有的该种外币的净资产头寸 .套期保值就是减少同一外币"敞口"(openpositions),即多头头寸和空头头寸2.2外汇期货投机.任何愿意持在投机中,.任何愿意持有外币头寸的人都是投机者，不论他们对于远期汇率抱有什么样的动机和预期夕卜汇期货CurrencyFutures:byenteringintoacurrencyfuturescontract,youcaneffectivelylockinthepriceatwhichyoubuyorsellaforeigncurrencyatasetdateinthefuture.与远期外汇合约的不同 :Astandardcontract;Requireamargintoensureyourtrading;Profitorlossesaccrueddaily;Low-costdirectmethodforcurrencyhedgingorspeculation.夕卜汇期权CurrencyOption:aCurrencyOptiongivesthebuyer(orholder)oftheright,butnottheobligation,tobuyforeigncurrency(acalloption)ortosellforeigncurrencyatsometimeinthefutureatapricesettoday期权是一种有价值的权利，买方向期权的卖方支付一定的权利金才能获得期权夕卜汇掉期CurrencySwap:inacurrencyswaptwopartiesagreetoexchangeflowsofdifferentcurrenciesduringaspecifiedperiodoftime.国际金融投资InternationalFinancialInvestment抵补的国际投资Ahedgedinvestmentiscalledcoveredinternationalinvestment.抵补利差CoveredInterestDifferential: ①CD=(1+iU(KfeS)如果该差值为正，那么在英国投资较为有利.如果为负，那么投资就应转向美国国内.远期升水Forwardpremium(F)istheproportionatediffereneebetweenthecurrentforwardexchangeratevalueofthepoundanditscurrentspotvalue, -e)/e ②F=(f远期升水(以百分比形式表示)表明即期持有的英镑增值比例，它是以即期汇率买入英镑拼在将来以即期的远期汇率卖出英镑的投资行为 .如果F为负，则英镑处于远期贴水(discount),也就是以即期汇率买入英镑，而在将来以现在的远期汇率卖出英镑的行为使得即期持有的英镑价值减少.更加简洁的公式，抵补利差约等于英镑的远期升水加上利差 ：①②tCD=F+(iUK-iUS)这表明在图中，选择湖边哪一条路径取决于英镑的远期升水与两种货币利差的比较结果 .美国投资者通过在英国进行投资所获得的抵补后的总收益 （以美元表示）近似等于下面两项之和：货币兑换时即期汇率与远期汇率之差所带来的收益 （英镑的远期升水 F）加上英镑投资本身的利息收益iUK.TheoverallcoveredreturnindollarstoU.S.investorfrominvestinginBritainisapproximatelyequaltothesumoftwocomponents：Thegainoflossfromthespotandforwardcurrencyexchangesplustheinterestreturnonthepoundinvestmentitself.抵补利差近似等于投资英镑资产获得的抵补后总收益 （F+iUK与投资美元资产获得的收益（iUS）之差.抵补套利CoveredInterestArbitrageItisbuyingacountry 'scurrencyspotandsellingthatcurrencyforward,tomakeanetprofitfromthecombinationofthedifferenceininterestratesbetweencountriesandtheforwardpremiumonthatcountry'scurrency.抵补利率平价CoveredInterestParityTheopportunitiestomakearbitrageprofitswouldbeself-eliminatingbecausetheforwardexchangeratewouldadjustsothatthecoveredinterestdifferentialreturntozero.WerefertotheconditionCD=0ascoveredinterestparity.抵补利率平价有两种等价的表达式：1一国货币的远期升水（贴水）等于该国利率低于（高于）另一国利率数额（F=iUS-iUK）.2投资于一种外币的总抵补收入等于投资于本币的总收入（F+iUK=iUS）.如果一国的利率低于美国的相应利率 ,那么该国的货币便为远期升水 ,利率的百分比之差将等于远期升水的百分比.如果即期汇率上升而两国利率差没有发生变化 ,那么远期汇率就必须上升以维持远期升水不变.在这种情况中,任何使即期汇率上升（或下降）的因素也将会使远期汇率同样上升 （或下降）.即,长时间内,即期汇率与远期汇率之间存在高度的正相关关系 .无抵补的国际投资Uncoveredinternationalfinancialinvestmentinvolvesinvestinginafinancialassetdenominatedinaforeigncurrencywithouthedgingorcoveringthefutureproceedsoftheinvestmentbackintoone'sowncurrency.投资者可用预期的将来即期汇率 （ex）来预测无抵补国际投资的预期总收益 .预期的无抵补利差：为贬值率）加上两国的利率差EUD=Expectedappreciation+（iUK-iUS）为什么有人愿意进行这种投资呢 ？一是与收益相关，二是与风险相关•无抵补投资的预期总收益可能会大于在国内投资的收益 （EUD为正）•投资者预计所承担的风险会得到足够的补偿•尤其当实际的将来即期汇率远低于预期值时 •无抵补禾U率平价UncoveredInterestParity:Acurrencyisexpectedtoappreciate（depreciate）byasmuchasitsinterestrateislower（higher）thantheinterestrateintheothercountry.两种表达形式:1一种货币的预期升值（贬值）幅度和该国利率低于（高于）他国利率的差值相同•（英镑预期升值率=iUSJUK）;2投资于一种外币的预期无抵补总收益等于投资于本币的总收益.（预期升值率+iUK=iUS）.C5汇率的决定1短期汇率决定：汇率的资产市场理论，了解短期汇率面临的压力 ，了解短期汇率面临的压力 .只需研究最好的办法是考察以不同货币计值的资产的供求状况以各种货币计值的有价证券（政府债券）Fourvariables变量shouldbeconsidered:thedomesticinterestrate,theforeigninterestrate,thecurrentspotexchangerate,andtheexpectedfuturespotexchangerate.投资者确定未抵补的外汇债券投资总收益的依据是 ：债券本身的基本收益（由利率或收益率决定）;预期汇率收益或损失（预期外汇升值或贬值）如果未抵补利率平价成立（至少是近似地成立）,那么国内和国外利率（i和if）或预期的将来即期汇率（eex）的任何变化都可以导致未抵补利差以及需要重建未抵补利率平价的压力 .如下变化将促使即期汇率 e（外汇的价格）上升:利差（if-i）增加;预期将来即期汇率（eex）上升.2•预期的将来即期汇率的作用顺势效应Bandwagon:currenciesthathavebeenappreciatingareexpectedtocontinuetodoso.预期也建立在汇率最终与基本经济面保持一致 ；汇率预期的改变源于很多新的信息经济模型几乎没有能力预测从短期到未来 (一年或更短的时间内)的汇率.主要是因为不可预测的新闻是影响短期汇率变动的重要因素 ，但这也反映了预期会推动短期汇率变动 ，导致顺势效应(bandwagoneffect)以及投机泡沫(speculativebubbles).2长期汇率分析：购买力评价thepurchasingpowerparity(PPP)一价定律:Thelawofonepricepositsthataproductthatiseasilyandfreelytradedinaperfectlycompetitiveglobalmarketshouldhavethesamepriceeverywhere,oncethepricesatdifferentplacesareexpressedinthesamecurrency.—种商品如果能在完全竞争的国际市场上自由买卖，那么该种商品在不同地方使用同一种货币表示的价格应当相等P=e?PfP：用本国货币表示的某种商品的国内价格 ;Pf:即期汇率(e:本币价格/外币价格)换算得到的该种商品的外币价格绝对购买力评价Absolutepurchasingpowerparity:Theaveragepriceoftheseproductsstatedindifferentcurrenciesisthesamewhenconvertedtoacommoncurrency.—组或一篮子可贸易产品在不同国家以同种货币表示的价格是相同的P=e?Pf,e=P/PfP是用本币表示的产品平均价格水平 ，Pf是用外币表示的产品平均价格水平 .两个等式是相同的，除了价格变量在一价定律中是指某种商品的价格 ，而在绝对PPP定理中,指一组商品的价格.理论:国际竞争逐渐使国内外贸易商品和服务的价格均等化相对购买力评价Relativepurchasingpowerparity:Thediffereneebetweenchangesovertimeinproduct-pricelevelsintwocountrieswillbeoffsetbythechangeintheexchangerateoverthistime.一段时期内，两国间产品价格水平的差会被同期内汇率的变化值所抵消空 pt/p。e0 Pf，t/Pf，07t常用近似表达式:Rateofappreciationoftheforeigncurrency= -nfn是国内的通胀率，n是外国通胀率7t相对购买力平价理论为预测汇率的波动趋势尤其是长期趋势 ，提供了强有力的工具：通货膨胀率相对较低国家的货币在外汇市场上趋向升值 ；通货膨胀率相对较高国家的货币在外汇市场上趋向贬值•Recentexperienee结论:短期内，汇率会明显偏离其 PPP价值;但就长期而言，购买力平价理论成立•货币分析方法themonetaryapproachtoexchangerates.（P弓）二（JT捕"讥Ms和Msf分别为本国和外国货币供应量 ，P和Pf分别代表本国和外国的价格水平 ，y和yf分别表示本国和外国实际（按照不变价格计算的）国内产出.k和kf分别表示本国和外国的货币持有量与其名义 GDP之间的比例关系Sse（P/R）（M/MfXK/QM/Y）这一方程表明，当外国的货币供给增长放缓（Ms/Msf的比率上升卜外国实际产出增长加快 （Yf/y的比率上升）或kf/k比率上升时，外国货币升值；反之,当外国货币供应急剧增长且实体经济停滞不前时 ，外国货币会贬值.货币供给对汇率的影响 ：Thechangeofmoneysupplyshouldleadtothesameextentchangeofexchangerate.实际收入对汇率的影响 ：1Thechangeofrealincomesshouldleadtothesameextentchangeofexchangerate.2Theeffectofrealincomesonexchangerateisdifferentaccordingthereasonforthechangeofrealincomes，suchassupply-sideoraggregate-demandreason.3中期趋势汇率超调ExchangerateovershootingTherapid，largereactionofthecurrentexchangeratetosuchnewsasachangesinmonetarypolicyiscalledovershooting.名义有效汇率nominaleffectiveexchangerateisaweightedaverageofthemarketratesacrossanumberofforeigncurrencies是取一组外国货币加权,得到平均汇率值实际有效汇率realeffectiveexchangerateisaweightedaverageofrealbilateralexchangeratesacrossanumberofforeigncountries是对一组其他国家的实际双边汇率加权后的真实汇率 .实际汇率（RER可用于衡量对PPP的偏离幅度侗时也能反映出一国的价格竞争优势 .C6政府外汇政策GovernmentPoliciestowardtheForeignExchangeMarket为什么政府干预WhyDoesGovernmentsIntervene?1Exchangeratefluctuating.2Exchangeratesareveryimportantprice.3Thecontrolofexchangeratescanbenefitthecountry.干预的两种方式:1Thosepoliciesthataredirectlyappliedtotheexchangerate.（exchangeratecontrol）2Thosepoliciesthatdirectlystatewhomayusetheforeignexchangemarketandforwhatpurpose.（foreignexchangecontrol）政府对市场准入资格的限制:1完全自由兑换fullyconvertible2外汇管制ExchangeControl:thecountry'sgovernmentplacessomerestrictionsonuseoftheforeignexchangemarket3资本管制Capitalcontrols:byplacinglimitsorrequiringapprovalsforpaymentsrelatedtosomeinternationalfinancialactivities4对一部分需求限制,如奢侈品浮动汇率清洁浮动Cleanfloat:therateisfreetogowhereverthemarketequilibriumisatthetime.Itisthepolarcaseofcompleteflexibility.有管理的浮动或肮脏浮动Managedfloatordirtyfloat:therateisgenerallyfloatingbutwiththegovernmentwillingtointervenetoattempttoinfluencethemarketrate.固定汇率Thegovernmentsetstheexchangeratethatitwants.Therateispermittedwithinaband（区间）aroundtheparvalue（外汇平价）orcentralvalue（中心值）.3.1与何种货币挂钩WhattoFixedto?1Thecountrychosentofixtothespecificamountsgoldmanyyearsago.2Thecountrycouldchoosetofixthevalueofitscurrencytosomeothercurrency,suchasU.S.Dollar.3Thecountrycouldchoosetofixtoabasketofcurrencies,suchSDRorabasketcurrenciescreatedbyitself.SDR:ItisareserveassetcreatedbytheInternationalMonetaryFund.何时调整固定汇率钉住汇率Peggedexchangerate:thegovernmentbinditscurrencytoaspecificcurrencyandtheratefluctuateswithitstargetcurrency.可调整钉住汇率Adjustablepeg:thegovernmentmaytrytokeeptheratefixedforalongperiodsoftime.蠕动钉住汇率Crawlingpeg:theratecanbechangedoftenaccordingtoasetofindicatorsorthejudgmentofthemonetaryauthority.女口果采用指标法indicator:inflationrate（本国与被钉住国）,officialinternationalreserveassets,thegrowthofthecountry'msoneysupply,thecurrentactualmarketexchangeraterelativetothecentralparvalueofthepeggedrate固定汇率的维持DefendingaFixedExchangeRate?1Interveneintheforeignexchangemarket;2Imposesomeformofexchangecontrol;3Alterdomesticinterestratestoinfluenceshort-termcapitalflows;4Changeitsfiscalormonetarypolicy;5Tosurrenderratherthandefend官方干预下的固定汇率 DefenseThroughOfficialIntervention阻止本币贬值的干预DefendingagainstdepreciationIftheclearingrateisabovethetopofagovernment 'sallowedband,governmentmustintervenetomaintainthefixedratebysellingforeigncurrencyandbuyingdomesticcurrency.卖外汇,买本币Throughinterventionthemonetaryauthorityisfinancingthecountry'desficitinitsofficialsettlementbalance.用本国官方结算赤字的方法 ,为本国赤字融资如何阻止HowDoesaGovernmentDefendThemonetaryauthorityusesitsownofficialinternationalreserveassets,oritborrowsthereserveassetsabroad.2Swaplines（互换信贷额度）andloanaretypicalborrowing.3冲销型干预DefendingwithSterilizationThemonetaryauthorityrestoresthedomesticmoneyintomacroeconomywhileitintervenestheforeignexchangemarketbybuyingdomesticmoney.Themoneysupplywillnotchangeifthemonetaryauthoritysterilize.阻止本币升值的干预DefendingagainstappreciationIftheclearingrateisbelowthebottomofagovernment'sallowedband,thegovernmentmustintervenetomaintainthefixedratebybuyingforeigncurrencyandsellingdomesticcurrency.买入外币,卖出本币Thisresultsinanofficialsettlementsbalancesurplus.官方结算差额盈余Thecountry'sholdingsofofficialreserveassetsinere官方储备资产增加Theinterventionwillexpandthedomesticmoneysupplyifthemonetaryauthoritydoesnotsterilize.货币供给增加，除非冲销暂时性失衡Temporarydisequilibrium如果失衡是暂时的，单纯对固定汇率干预是合理有效的 ，货币当局可以对连续出现的赤字和盈余进行干预，实际上对暂时性的赤字和盈余进行干预优于让汇率上下波动条件StringentConditionsforTemporaryIntervention:1个人投机者不能预测外汇供求变化;2政府必须能够预测4.4非暂时性失衡DisequilibriumthatisnottemporaryIfthecountry'sofficialsettlementsbalanceisnottemporary，theinterventionofgovernmentwillleadtoacontinuallyaccumulatingorlosingreserves.赤字型更赤字，盈余型更盈余Itwillbecomeworseifprivateinvestorsandspeculatorsobservethegovernment'resservelossesandbegintoattackthecurrency.Aone-wayspeculativegambleexists.单项投机外汇管制ExchangeControl平行市场Aparallelmarketprivatedemandersandsellersofforeignexchangetoevadetheexchangecontrols.C7国际贷款与金融危机InternationalLendingandFinancialCrisis1类型DifferentTypesofInternationalLending:Longtermandshorttermlending;PrivateandofficiallendingPrivateLendingAndInvesting:Longterm:directinvestment;loans;portfolioinvestment 、Shortterm:maturityisinoneyearOfficialLendingAndInvesting:Byagovernment;Bymultilateralinstitution;ByIMF;ByWB国际借贷两种收益:跨期交易intertemporaltrade;使双方资产组合多样化国际借贷税TaxesOnInternationalLending国家最优税率nationallyoptimaltax:lfacountryloomslargeenoughtohavepowerovertheworldmarketrateofreturn,itcanexploitthismarketpowertoitsownadvantageattheexpenseofothercountriesandtheworldasawhole.金融危机的根源financialcrisis:whatcananddoesgowrong过渡放贷与过度借债 WavesOfOverlendingAndOverborrowing1Thegovernmenthasanincentivetodefaultwhenithasborrowedtoomuch.Largecapitalinflowsleadtoeasydomesticcredit.2Lendinggoestoinvestmentsthatareoflowquality.3Thecapitalinflowsandlendingboomtendtoinflatestockpriceandrealestateprices.外部冲击ExogenousInternationalShocks:1Adeclineinexportprices;2Anincreaseofinterestrate汇率风险ExchangeRateRisk1Thegovernmentsofdevelopingcountriescannotfixedtheirexchangeratetomajorcurrenciesallthetime.2Foreignlendersmayreducenewlendingandtrytoberepaidmorequicklywhenthelikelihoodofdevaluationordepreciationbecomenoticeable.变幻无常的短期国际借债 FickleInternationalShort-TermLending1Short-termdebtsisriskytotheborrowingcountrybecauseinternationallenderscaneasilyshiftfromoneequilibriumtoanother,basedontheiropinionofthecountry 'sprospects.2Short-termlendersoftenrefusetorefinancetheolddebtwhendevelopingcountriesneedit.危机的全球蔓延GlobalContagion1Thecrisishasspillovereffectsinanothercountries.2Herdingbehaviorwilloccurwhenforeignlenderscannotobtainenoughinformation.3Thedevelopingcountrieshavethesimilarproblemsuchasfixedrate,weakbankingsystemsanddomesticlendingbooms.解决方法ResolvingFinancialCrises援救计划RescuePackagesTheyarepackagesofloancommitmentstoassistthecountryingettingthroughthecrisis.功能"Provideforpayment;2Restoreinvestorconfidenee;3Limitcontagioneffects;4Adjusteconomicpolicy消极影响:1Theactualeffectsislimitedtocushionafullfinancialcrisis.2Therescuepackagecancreatemoralhazardforlenders.债务重构DebtRestructuring两种方式:1债务延期Debtrescheduling:pushestherepaymentsschedulefurtherintothefuture.2债务削减Debtreduction:lowerstheamountofdebt减少危机发生的频率ReducingTheFrequencyofFinancialCrisesPursuesoundmacroeconomicpoliciesProvidesufficientinformationaboutitreserveanddebt.Avoidshort-termcapitalinflowsBankRegulationandSupervision:Betterbanks'accounting;Discloseinformationpublicly;Identifyweakbankstimely;Improvebanksystembeforefinancialliberalization;ReducedirectinterventionCapitalControls（有争议）:Limitcapitaloutflows;Taxrestrictiontointernationalborrowing;Capitalcontrolscanbesecond-bestpolicyifthebankregulationcannotbeimprovedimmediatelyC8开放的宏观经济的运行 HowDoestheOpenMacroeconomyWork?国民经济运行状况Theperformanceofnationaleconomy两类基本目标衡量是否健康:1充分就业和物价稳定Thefirstcategoryinvolvestwodomesticgoals:employmentandpricestability.2外部均衡externalbalance:Theachievementofareasonableandsustainablebalanceofpaymentswiththerestoftheworld.误解AMistakeaboutInternalBalanceandExternalBalance:1Nounemployment.2Deflationisbetterthaninflation.3Zerooverallbalance.宏观经济分析框架frameworkformacroeconomyanalysisAshortrunanalysisformacroeconomy:Thepricelevelisstickyorsluggish.短期运行根据凯恩斯:短期价格水平是有粘性的或是停滞的国内产出取决于总需求DomesticproductiondependsonaggregatedemandIntheshortrun,domesticproductionisdeterminedbyaggregatedemand(AD)forthecountryproducts.短期内一国产品的总需求(AD)决定其产出(Y):Y=AD=C+Id+G+(X-M)C居民对商品和服务的需求；ld对新的实际资产的投资；G政府对商品和服务的支出；(X-M)商品和服务的净出口；X外国对本国出口品的需求；M本国的进口需求各项国民支出相加得到对商品和服务的国民总支出(E):E=C+ld+G居民消费支出与可支配收入正相关 (可支配收入近似等于总收入 Y-税收T,这里税收不计):C=C(Y)实际国内投资支出与利率水平 i负相关Id=Id(i)贸易取决于收入一国的进口数量取决于其实际国民收入或产出水平 ,并呈正相关关系:M=M(Y)两种解释:1进口品通常作为国内产出和服务的中间投入品；2进口与本国经济中的实际总支出或"吸收(E)"有紧密关系边际进口倾向Themarginalpropensitytoimportistheamountofimportincreasewhenourincomegoesupbyonedollar.均衡GDP与支出乘数效应EquilibriumGDPandspendingmultipliers均衡GDP均衡条件为：实际均衡 GDP=W购买意愿的总需求 =有购买意愿的国民支出+净出口，即Y=AD(Y)=E(Y)+XM(Y)①国民储蓄S=国民收入Y■对非投资项目的国民支出(C,G),①两边-(C+G)t(Y-C-G)=(E-C-G)+(X-M)得到储蓄、国内投资和净出口的等式 S=ld+(XM)净出口近似等于经常项目余额又等于净外国投资If,If替换(X-M尸一国的股民储蓄必须等于对新增实际资产的国内投资加上净外国投资小国开放经济中的支出乘数效应 TheSpendingMultipliersinaSmallOpenEconomyTheinitialincreaseofspendinginaneconomy,inwhichactualproductionisbelowpotentiallevel,setsoffamultiplierprocessofexpansionofdomesticproductionandincome.在实际产出低于潜在最大产出水平的经济中，当国内支出增加时，将对国内产出和收入产生乘数效应Thespendingmultiplier△Y/△Thespendingmultiplier△Y/△G=1/(s+m)边际储蓄倾向s,边际进口倾向m,边际消费倾向(1-&m)例如：国内居民从得到的10元收入中，储蓄2元,支出3元用于外国商品和服务的进口 ，支出5元用于本国商品和服务的消费 ，s=0.2,m=0.3,1-s-m=0.55.3外国收入的反作用Themoreourcountry5.3外国收入的反作用Themoreourcountrysimportsaffectforeignincomes,andthemoretheforeigncountrieshaveapropensitytoimportfromourcountry,themoreourtruespendingmultiplierexceedsthesimpleformula1/(s+m).本国进口对外国收入的影响越大，且外国对本国的边际进口倾向越大 ,实际支出乘数就大于公式 1/(s+m)的乘数值■W，ft*—亠■W，ft*—亠•丨6Athree-marketframework■-国内商品市场ThegoodsandservicesmarketS1S1tkijviinph-4-vwv-A-.匸丘ril* t»*-•■pnintrivKj•v +wtr“■■Uh«Ia«>oi«iidMcn-Jii)« H3>hi-ifir■-tiii?s:rRW：rir<ii*»■HiLTliJUtFPI!«3>■iE^IBiHI&r■>!£■*<JIBtIf货币市场Themarketformoneyf・<4$*71•蹙Jft■耳•潺翼軋■烧M 」川■臨土■尊ttvfR.WT■■■・,•nfjRY%rttd-"■■，：R^PMliii*N<4rfe-H«7MrK<Kta.齐曲利■悄“・|斗>mBW.-EAniK.M-d夕卜汇市场Theforeignexchangemarketf）1ntt.BMT«k«4t«otTB»■:miftf 4dBRIhAJBilal4«lll・PSInr 祐iwt，*vi!iHF・ium・町啡d,fliJBRK-H申*i”IW*"•释*W11*fi.i»afimniiMmft»iitut*住》：曲也？*x%tmeR±」rcrrn1tfkt*n>iff»!f'• Tl!*fHrfi*1*B^T»4It （Hilf%：L*msFT.*i**fii*mi■丄Allthreemarketscanbeaffectedbydifferentkindsofexogenousforces,suchasbusinessmode,fiscalpolicyandmonetarypolicy.6.4ThreeMarketTogetherTheofficialsettlementsbalanceisinsurplusiftheIS -LMintersectionistotheleftoftheFEcurve.如果IS-LM的交点位于FE曲线的左边（或上面），是国际收支顺差TheofficialsettlementsbalanceiszeroiftheIS-LMintersectionisontheFEcurve.如果IS-LM的交点位于FE曲线上，是国际收支平衡（7-11的A点）TheofficialsettlementsbalanceisindeficitiftheIS-LMintersectionistotherightoftheFEcurve.如果IS-LM的交点位于FE曲线的右边（或下面），是国际收支逆差C9固定汇率制下的内外部均衡 InternalandExternalBalancewithFixedExchangeRates为什么研究固定汇率WhyStudyFixedRates?1Asubstantialnumberofcountriesdofixtheirexchangerates.2Floatingratesareheavilymanagedbythegovernments.3Discussionsaboutreturningtofixedratesystem.1从国际收支平衡到货币供给 FromTheBalaneeofPaymentstoTheMoneySupply中央银行买入或卖出外汇时，政府外汇储备量将发生变化；中央银行买入或卖出本国货币时一国的货币供给会发生改变■1-1tti■HI1如果一国存在官方结算盈余，本国货币汇率将面临上升的压力，为了维持固定汇率制，中央银行必须进行干预：买入外汇、卖出本币•表现为：官方国际储备持有量增加（Rf）负债随着本币被注入到经济系统中增加（MBf）,货币供给增加2如果一国存在官方结算赤字，本国货币汇率将面临下降的压力，为了维持固定汇率制，中央银行