某公司增长的思考（英文版）课件

ThinkingaboutGrowthTechniekenvanStrategischeAnalyseProf.WouterDePloeyThinkingaboutGrowthI. WhygrowII. TheevolutionofgrowthportfoliosIII. WhatgreatgrowersdoI. WhygrowProfitablegrowthdrivesprincipalbusinessobjectivesOrganisationalvitalityCompetitivesustainabilityShareholdervalueJobcreationValue-creatingrevenuegrowthdrivesprincipalbusinessobjectives.Growthisnotanendinitself.Profitablegrowthdrivesprinc‘Growthispureoxygen.Itcreatesavital,enthusiasticcorporationwherepeopleseegenuineopportunity.Theytakebiggerchances.Theyworkharderandsmarter.Inthatwaygrowthismorethanoursinglemostimportantfinancialdriver,it’sanessentialpartofourcorporateculture.It’swhysomanytalentedleaderswanttoworkforPepsiCoratherthanlotsofotherfinecorporations.’WayneCalloway,formerPepsiCoCEOGrowthdrivesorganisationalvitality‘Growthispureoxygen.ItcreI. WhygrowII. TheevolutionofgrowthportfoliosIII. WhatgreatgrowersdoI. WhygrowThreekeyconceptsBalancinggrowthacross3HorizonsBuildingbusinessesthroughastaircaseofinitiativesAcompanyasaportfolioofstaircasesThreekeyconceptsBalancinggrConcurrentmanagementacross

3Horizons

Timeframe(years)ProfitHorizon3Createviable

optionsHorizon2Buildemerging

businessesHorizon1ExtendanddefendcorebusinessesConcurrentmanagementacross

3HorizonsofgrowthHorizon1Extendanddefend

corebusinessesHorizon2BuildemergingbusinessesHorizon3Createviable

optionsTypesofbusinessesCorebusinessesunderpinningcurrentprofitabilityNewbusinessesandextensionsofexistingbusinessesfuellingrevenuegrowthOptionstobuildfuturebusinessesManagementimperativeUnlockincrementalgrowth,thenmanageforvalueasthebusinessdeclinesExerciseoptions,assemblerequiredcapabilities,anddrivebusiness-buildinginitiativesSourceoptions(ideas,relationships,assets)forfuturegrowthandtestviabilityofbusinessconceptsPrimaryfocusBottom-lineperformanceandprofitabilityTop-linegrowthandcapitalefficiencyFuturepotentialandrobustnessacrossmultiplescenarios3HorizonsofgrowthHorizon1HBalancedgrowthatCoca-ColaAmatil

TimeframeAustralasia1965Australia(69)1988NewZealand(55)WesternEurope1982Austria(42)1995Switzerland(35)ProfitYearofentry(consumptionofCoca-ColaAmatilproductsinlitrespercapita)Horizon3CreateviableoptionsHorizon2Buildemerging

businessesEasternEurope1991Hungary(30)1991CzechRepublic(14)1992Slovakia(11)1994Slovenia(25)1995Poland(8)1995Romania(15)1995Croatia(14)SoutheastAsia1991Indonesia(2)1997Philippines(15)FormerSovietrepublics1994Belarus(2)1994Ukraine(1)China/IndiaOptionwithRobert

Kuok?OptionwithSanMiguelOther(e.g.,furtherfranchises,smartcards,newproducts)Horizon1ExtendanddefendcorebusinessesBalancedgrowthatCoca-ColaAFinancialcharacteristicsHorizons2and3:Coca-ColaAmatilexample(Dec96)Forecastcashcontribution19961996A$Millions19271-12Forecastcashcontribution20151996A$Millions334727228CapexLowHighMediumRealgrowthinpre-capexcashflow1996–201555%227%911%Estimatedmarketvalue30%50%20%TimeframeProfitHorizon3FormerSovietrepublicsChina/AsiaOther(e.g.,furtherfranchises,smartcards,newproducts)Horizon2EasternEuropeIndonesiaHorizon1AustralasiaWesternEuropeFinancialcharacteristicsHoriChallengeofsimultaneouslymanaging3Horizons

•Profit•ROIC•Revenue•NPV•Optionvalue•Businessmaintainers•Businessbuilders•Championsandvisionaries•Fullyassembledcapabilityplatform•Capabilitiesbeingacquiredordeveloped•CapabilityrequirementsmaybeunclearMetricsPeopleCapabilitiesHorizon1ExtendanddefendcorebusinessesHorizon2BuildemergingbusinessesHorizon3CreateviableoptionsProfitTimeframeChallengeofsimultaneouslymaUnsustainablepatternsWeakStrongStrong,butunderattackRunningoutofsteamIdeasbutnotbuildingbusinessesFailingtoseedforthefutureLosingtherighttogrowLotsofexcitingoptionsbutnobodybuildingabusinessBuildingnextgenerationofbusinesses,butnotsecuringlong-termfutureOverfocusedoncorebusiness,restrictingfutureprospectsExcessivefocusongrowthatexpenseofcorebusinessCorebusinessunderseriousthreatwithnoemergingnewbusinessesUndersiege************************************UnsustainablepatternsWeakStroThreekeyconceptsBalancinggrowthacross3HorizonsBuildingbusinessesthroughastaircaseofinitiativesAcompanyasaportfolioofstaircasesThreekeyconceptsBalancinggrGrowthstaircasedynamics

Eachsteponstaircase•Capturesanopportunity•Buildsnewcapabilities•CreatesnewoptionsforthenextstepCapabilityplatformBusiness-specificcompetences,growth-enablingcompetences,privilegedassets,specialrelationshipsNewcapabilitiesRequiredfuturecapabilitiesExistingcapabilitiesExistingcapabilitiescapabilitiesNewNewcapabilitiesRequiredfuturecapabilitiesRequiredfuturecapabilitiesRequiredfuturecapabilitiesAspirationGrowthstaircasedynamics

EachCoca-ColaAmatil’sEuropeanstaircase

RelationshipandcredibilitywithTheCoca-ColaCompanyCapabilitiesdevelopmentStrongbrandsRegionaleconomiesofscaleanddistributionManufacturingexpertise‘Ihaveavisionthatbytheyear2000,CCA’soutputinEuropewillgofrom400millionunitcasesatthemomentto

1billion’MuhtarKent,CCAEuropeanManagingDirectorLimitedplatformofbeveragecapabilities1964-7219821991-931987-911994-96Acquires4AustralianCoca-ColafranchisesAcquiresAustrianfranchisesGrazViennaAcquiresfurtherAustrianfranchisesHungaryCzechRepublicSlovakiaAcquiresfranchisesinBelarusUkraineSloveniaPoland(66%)Romania(50%)CroatiaSwitzerlandAcquiresfranchisesinMödlingStPoltenLandeggSteyrGmundenKlangenfurtDombirnSalzburgCoca-ColaAmatil’sEuropeanstSeedgrowthoptionsTestbusinessmodelReplicateprovenbusinessmodelManageforprofitabilitySourceandsecureoptionsforfuturegrowthTestcommercialviabilityofbusinessconceptRealisegrowthpotentialthroughbusiness-buildinginitiativesMaximisegrowthpotentialbyunlockingincrementalgrowth,thenmanagevalueindeclineGenericgrowthstaircaseSeedgrowthoptionsTestbusineHungaryCzechRepublicSlovakiaAcquiresfranchisesinSeedgrowthoptionsTestbusinessmodelReplicateprovenbusinessmodelManageforprofitabilityCoca-ColaAmatil’sEuropeanstaircase

1964-7219821991-931987-911994-96Acquires4AustralianCoca-ColafranchisesAcquiresAustrianfranchisesAcquiresfurtherAustrianfranchisesBelarusUkraineSloveniaPolandRomaniaCroatiaSwitzerlandAcquiresfranchisesinMödlingStPoltenLandeggSteyrGmundenKlangenfurtDombirnSalzburgGrazViennaHungaryAcquiresfranchisesinSSourcesofvaluecreation:Coca-ColaAmatil

Superiorfront-lineexecutionPositionaladvantageInsight/foresightSeedgrowthoptionsReplicateprovenbusinessmodelManageforprofitabilityTestbusinessmodel‘Althoughthecurrentlevelofsoftdrinkconsumptionislow…thelocalsoftdrinkmarketisexpectedtogrowdramaticallyinthe1990s’DeanWills,Chairman

1991annualreportExample:In1991,CCAstartedanewstaircaseinIndonesia,wherepercapitasoftdrinkconsumptionwas~2%ofAustralia’sconsumption‘Theadvantagesofoperatingintwoterritoriesadjoiningoneanother,versustwoinisolation,aretangible’DeanWills,Chairman

1994annualreportExample:InEurope,CCA’sgrowthformulaisbasedonsecuringcontiguousfranchisesanddrivingoutcostviarationalisation‘TheCoca-ColaCompanymeasurestheperformanceofitsbottlersagainst3simplecriteria(expandingsalesofCoca-Colaproducts,boostingpercapitaconsumption,investinginCoca-Colabrands).Coca-ColaAmatilisastarperformeronallthreecounts.TheAustraliancompanyisthecurrentdarlingoftheCokesystem’BRW,13September,1991Example:CCA’sfront-linemarketingskillsareamongthebestintheworldSourcesofvaluecreation:CocThreekeyconceptsBalancinggrowthacross3HorizonsBuildingbusinessesthroughastaircaseofinitiativesAcompanyasaportfolioofstaircasesThreekeyconceptsBalancinggrMappingstaircasestoHorizons

TimeframeProfitHorizon1Horizon2Horizon3CreateviableoptionsSeedgrowthoptionsReplicateprovenbusinessmodelManageforprofitabilityTestbusinessmodelBuildemergingbusinessesExtendanddefendcorebusinessesMappingstaircasestoHorizons3Horizonsasaportfolioofstaircases

Horizon1ExtendanddefendcorebusinessesHorizon2BuildemergingbusinessesHorizon3CreateviableoptionsTimeframeMaturestaircasesDevelopingstaircasesEmbryonicstaircasesProfit3HorizonsasaportfolioofsCoca-ColaAmatil’sportfolioofstaircases

4morefranchisesinAustria1990–91Horizon1Horizon2Horizon3Coca-ColaAmatilHorizonsCoca-ColaAmatilstaircasesAcquisitionandoperationof4AustralianfranchisesAustralianfranchisesFijiNZfranchiseRemainderofNZandAustralianfranchisesPNG1964–851986–881989–9019912jointventuresinIndonesiaControlofJVsJakartaandNorthSumatrafranchisesConsoli-dationinto1nationalfranchise1991199219931995ViennaandGraz4AustrianfranchisesSwitzerland19821987–891995–96CzechandHungarySlovakiaSloveniaPolandCroatiaRomania1991199219941995–96UkraineBelarusInfra-structureFormerSovietrepublicsEasternEuropeWesternEuropeIndonesiaAustralasiaWesternEuropeAustralasiaEasternEuropeIndonesiaFormerSovietrepublics19941995-96Coca-ColaAmatil’sportfoliooDisney’sportfolioevolutionAnimationCharacterlicensing19201930194019501960197019801990MusicpublishingBookpublishingDisneystoresDirectmailSoftwaredevelopment,visualeffectsAnimatedfeaturefilmsTelevisionshowsMotionpicturesTouchstonefilms,homevideosDisneychannelMiramaxacquisitionABCTVnetworkDisneylandWaltDisneyWorldEPCOTDisney/MGMStudiosAnimalKingdom,DisneyAmericaHoteldevelopmentDisneyInstitutevacationsResortsCruiselines,plannedcommunitiesTokyoDisney-landEuroDisneyKCAL–TVHockeyBaseballLivetheatreHollywoodPicturesHollywoodRecordsFilmedentertainmentThemeparksVacations,resorts&propertydevelopmentLiveentertainmentBroadcastingMerchandising,music,andpublishingDisney’sportfolioevolutionAnI. WhygrowII. TheevolutionofgrowthportfoliosIII. WhatgreatgrowersdoI. WhygrowCharacteristicsofsuccessfulgrowthcompaniesCommittogrowthCultivateentre-preneurshipBuildgrowthenginesCharacteristicsofsuccessfulCommittogrowthTherighttogrowStretchtargetsand

valuesCommittogrowthCultivateentre-preneurshipBuildgrowthenginesCommittogrowthTheStretchtarEarntherighttogrowAchieveandsustainoperationalexcellenceDivestunprofitableordistractingbusinessesBuildthefaithofinvestorsandfinanciersCommittogrowthCultivateentre-preneurshipBuildgrowthenginesTherighttogrowStretchtargetsand

valuesEarntherighttogrowAchieveDivestunprofitableordistractingbusinesses‘90%oftheSaraLeeCorporationof1974isgone.’

(22significantdivestmentsinpast15years)JohnBryan,CEO‘...Wedivestanypartofthebusinesswearenothappywith...weareverydisciplined.Weareconvincedthatthebenefitsofworldwideleadershiparesogreatthatwecan’taffordtowastetime,money,andmanagementtalentwherethatleadershipisnotachievable.’AlfredZeien,CEO‘Wehavedivestedintheeighties$10billionworthofmarginalbusinessesandmade$19billionofacquisitions.’JackWelch,CEO‘WedonothangontobusinesseswherewecannotbeNumber1or2.’RichardGibb,President,SignalDivisionDivestunprofitableordistracWinningconfidenceofshareholders

atDisneyStrategyTargetaudienceExampleMajorshareholder,SidBassEisnerandWellsflewtomeetBassafter2daysonjobtogainhissupportBroaderinvestmentcommunity

Activeparticipationin‘Disneymagic’Individualshareholders

ConcernedinvestmentcommunityOne-on-onediscussionsRoadshowpresentationsTargetedpressconferencesEisner,Wells,&KatzenbergheldbrokersmeetingstogainsupportforSilverScreenfilmfinancingAnnualgeneralmeetingsareabigfamilyeventatAnaheim(1984attendedby~8000)WhenDisneyfacedaseriesofdisruptions(Wells’sdeath,Katzenberg’sdeparture,Eisner’sheartsurgery),itheldpressconferencesWinningconfidenceofshareholRaisethebarthroughstretchtargetsandvaluesSetstretchtargetsKillerfinancialtargetsInspiringaspirationthatevolvesovertimeBalancewithstrongvaluesCommittogrowthCultivateentre-preneurshipBuildgrowthenginesTherighttogrowStretchtargetsand

valuesRaisethebarthroughstretchInspiringaspiration‘Youreallyneedtoarticulateavisionandwillittohappen.Ourpeoplegetintoxicatedwithavision.Thatvisionischargedbysomethingthatisdream-drivenandgivestheorganisationdirectionforthefuture.’‘Onekeyobjective—tobetheworld’spremierpackagingcompany.’‘Betheworld’spremierentertainmentcompany.’‘Tobetterhumanityastheworld’sleadinghealthcarecompany.’‘Iwanttobuildabusinessthatcangrowforever.’Inspiringaspiration‘YoureallBuildgrowthenginesCommittogrowthCultivateentre-preneurshipBuildgrowthenginesOpportunitypipelinePlatformofcapabilitiesExpansive

mindsetBuildgrowthenginesCommittoEmbraceanexpansivemindsetRecogniseandutilise7degreesofstrategicfreedomBreakconstrainingmindsetsBroadentraditionalmarketdefinitionsIndustryboundariesGeographicboundariesBusinesssystemboundariesCommittogrowthCultivateentre-preneurshipExpansive

mindsetOpportunitypipelineBuildgrowthenginesFanorganisationalpassionPlatformofcapabilitiesEmbraceanexpansivemindsetReMovesintonewcompetitivearenasExistingcompetitivearenavsExpansion

intonewgeographiesExistinggeographyvsImprove-mentofindustrystructureExistingindustrystructurevsInnovationinvaluedeliverysystemExistingvaluedeliverysystemvsInnovationinproductsandservicesExistingproductsandservicesvsNewcustomersExistingcustomersvsSevendegreesofstrategicfreedomCurrent

businessMovesintonewcompetitiveareGillette’ssevendegreesofstrategicfreedomDroveconsolidationofstationeryindustrywithacquisitionsofPapermate,Waterman,andParkerAcquiredWilkinsonSwordoutsideUSandECin1991UseofdualsaleschannelswithOral-BandBraunbothsellingelectricdentalcaresystemSaleofWatermanpensthroughParker’scorporategiftchannelsSuccessfullymigratedconsumerstonewer,highermarginshavingproductsLeveragedGillettebrandinadjacentproductsToiletries,stationery,smallelectricalappliances,oralcare,andnowbatteries70%ofsalesandprofitsgeneratedoutsideUSDominantandprofitablepositionsinmostemergingmarketsBuiltfemalecustomerbasewithSensortechnologyMovesintonewcompetitivearenasExistingcompetitivearenavsExpansion

intonewgeographiesExistinggeographyvsImprove-mentofindustrystructureExistingindustrystructurevsInnovationinvaluedeliverysystemExistingvaluedeliverysystemvsInnovationinproductsandservicesExistingproductsandservicesvsNewcustomersExistingcustomersvsCurrent

businessMassivebrandandvolumebuildingthroughadvertisingandpromotionGillette’ssevendegreesofstBroadentraditionalmarketdefinitions5%ofthepersonaluse/personalcareconsumerproductsmarket20%ofmen’sgroomingproductsmarket60%ofthebladeandrazormarketBladesandrazorsBladesandrazorsShavingcreamDeodorant/antiperspirantAftershaveMen’sgroomingproductsWomen’sshavingandgroomingproductsShampoo/haircareOralcareBroadentraditionalmarketdefCCA’sexpansivemindsetwithfocusedproductofferingFrom…Non-beveragesalesdecreasedfrom$1.4billionto0Poultrysold1989BeveragesPackagingsold1990Printingsold1990Tobaccosold1989DiversifiedAustralianconglomeratein1985Snackfoodssold1992…ToBeveragesalesincreasedfrom$0.3billionto$3.0billionSpecialistglobalbeverageleaderin199616countries368millionconsumersIndonesiaPNGEuropeFijiAustraliaCCA’sexpansivemindsetwithfFilltheopportunitypipelineResourceprocessestofilltheopportunitypipelineDesigncompetitivelydefensiblebusinessconceptsCommittogrowthCultivateentre-preneurshipPlatformofcapabilitiesExpansivemindsetOpportunitypipelineBuildgrowthenginesFilltheopportunitypipelineRCapitalOne’s‘GoldenGate’processGrowthopportunities(GO)groupIdeagenerationInitialevaluationLedbyVPofnewbusinessdevelopment35full-timeanalystsIdentifiesgrowthopportunities‘Goldengate’groupanalysesotherindustriesforopportunitiesEmployeesencouragedtopursueopportunities‘GO’groupanalysesideasEachscreenedideaalloweda4-week‘sniff’byteamof2/3analystsBestideassetupaspilotbusinessesandassigneda‘CEO’GoalExamine100ideasperyeartoinvent1newbusinessCapitalOne’s‘GoldenGate’prAssembleaplatformofcapabilitiesDefinecapabilitiesbroadlyAssembleneededcapabilitiesBundlecapabilitiesfordistinctivenessCommittogrowthCultivateentre-preneurshipBuildgrowthenginesOpportunitypipelineExpansivemindsetPlatformofcapabilitiesAssembleaplatformofcapabilCapabilityplatformGrowth-enablingcompetencesPrivilegedassetsSpecialrelationshipsBusiness-specificcompetencesDefinecapabilitiesbroadlyBrandsNetworksInfrastructureInformationIntellectualpropertyAccess-conveyingrelationshipsComplementarycapabilityrelationshipsAcquisitionFinancing,riskmanagement,anddealstructuringCapitalproductivityRegulatorymanagementLicensesILLUSTRATIVECapabilityGrowth-enablingPriDisneybrandnameGovernmentrelations(Florida)Promotionpartners—

e.g.,McDonald’s,MattelTalent—

actors,animatorsPrivilegedassetsSpecialrelationshipsDisneycharactersFilmarchivesThemeparksandpropertiesNOTEXHAUSTIVEFinancialdealstructuringCross-promotionalmarketingskillsGrowth-enablingcompetencesBusiness-specificcompetencesThemeparkservicequalityWorld-classanimationskillsPropertydevelopmentDisney’sbundleofcapabilitiesDisneybrandnameGovernmentreCultivateentrepreneurshipCommittogrowthCultivateentre-preneurshipBuildgrowthenginesReinforcingsystemsandincentivesConnectedcommunitiesBusinessbuildersCultivateentrepreneurshipCommConnectedcommunitiesCreateconnectedcommunitiesOrganisearoundsmallcommunitiesLinkcommunitiestoachievesynergyandscaleadvantagesCommittogrowthCultivateentre-preneurshipBuildgrowthenginesReinforcingsystemsandincentivesBusinessbuildersConnectedCreateconnectedcommCreatingconnectivityamongcommunitiesBuildinstitutionalfoundationValues,vision,andidentityCreateeconomiesofscaleSharingresourcesIncreaseperformanceofeachunitTransferringbestpracticeBuildastronggeneralmanagementgroup;createopportunitiesforadvance-mentandrejuvenationMovingpeoplearoundOpenopportunitiesnotavailabletoindependentgroupsCombiningcapabilitiesWhatWhyExamples• J&Jcredo• HindustanLeverculture• CentralisedR&DtosupportglobaldistributionatGillette,J&J,SAP• Disneysynergies• Gilletteoralcare• 7-ElevenJapanweeklyregionalmanagermeetings• CRHbulletinstosharebestpractice• Gillette’sinternationalrotationprogramCreatingconnectivityamongcoSeekbusinessbuildersAssembleawinning

teamatthetopRecruittofillskillgapsDevelopandrejuvenatebusinessbuildersBalance‘growers’

with‘maintainers’CommittogrowthCultivateentre-preneurshipBuildgrowthenginesReinforcingsystemsandincentivesConnectedcommunitiesBusinessbuildersSeekbusinessbuildersAssembleDisneyturnaroundteamChairman&CEOPresident&COOCFORole

CredentialsTalentsCreativityandleadershipPresidentParamount(helpedturnaroundstudio)CharismaticandpersuasiveleadershipTrackrecordinfilmedentertainmentOperationalmanageranddealmakerPresidentofWarnerBrothers

Businessacumen,legalskills,andhands-onoperationaltalentToughHollywoodnegotiatorInnovativefinancingCFOMarriottHotels

InnovativefinancialskillsExcellentdealmakerGaryWilsonFrankWellsMichaelEisnerDisneyturnaroundteamChairmanReinforcingsystemsandincentivesPumpupincentivesFocusplanning,budgeting,capitalallocation,andperformancemeasurementsystemsCommittogrowthBuildgrowthenginesConnectedcommunitiesBusinessbuildersReinforcingsystemsandincentivesCultivateentre-preneurshipReinforcingsystemsandincentGrowthincentivesystemsPayforyourperformanceincentivesOpennewhorizonsforgrowersGroworgoPowerfulpeerpressurePressuretoperformPowerfulupside+‘Divisionpresidentscanget100%cashbonuses…realwealthcreationisstockoptions,thoughallourdivisionpresidentsaremillionaires’‘IfyouaresuccessfulhereyoucanbeaCEOinyourmid-30s…wehave15CEOsnow…in18monthswe’llhave21CEOs’‘IOCpresidentswhomisstargetareputonprobation.Iftargetismissedthenextyear,theyaregone’‘Peopleareexposedtostrongpeerpressure.Sothegenuineunderperformeroftenself-selects’GrowthincentivesystemsPayfoThinkingaboutGrowthTechniekenvanStrategischeAnalyseProf.WouterDePloeyThinkingaboutGrowthI. WhygrowII. TheevolutionofgrowthportfoliosIII. WhatgreatgrowersdoI. WhygrowProfitablegrowthdrivesprincipalbusinessobjectivesOrganisationalvitalityCompetitivesustainabilityShareholdervalueJobcreationValue-creatingrevenuegrowthdrivesprincipalbusinessobjectives.Growthisnotanendinitself.Profitablegrowthdrivesprinc‘Growthispureoxygen.Itcreatesavital,enthusiasticcorporationwherepeopleseegenuineopportunity.Theytakebiggerchances.Theyworkharderandsmarter.Inthatwaygrowthismorethanoursinglemostimportantfinancialdriver,it’sanessentialpartofourcorporateculture.It’swhysomanytalentedleaderswanttoworkforPepsiCoratherthanlotsofotherfinecorporations.’WayneCalloway,formerPepsiCoCEOGrowthdrivesorganisationalvitality‘Growthispureoxygen.ItcreI. WhygrowII. TheevolutionofgrowthportfoliosIII. WhatgreatgrowersdoI. WhygrowThreekeyconceptsBalancinggrowthacross3HorizonsBuildingbusinessesthroughastaircaseofinitiativesAcompanyasaportfolioofstaircasesThreekeyconceptsBalancinggrConcurrentmanagementacross

3Horizons

Timeframe(years)ProfitHorizon3Createviable

optionsHorizon2Buildemerging

businessesHorizon1ExtendanddefendcorebusinessesConcurrentmanagementacross

3HorizonsofgrowthHorizon1Extendanddefend

corebusinessesHorizon2BuildemergingbusinessesHorizon3Createviable

optionsTypesofbusinessesCorebusinessesunderpinningcurrentprofitabilityNewbusinessesandextensionsofexistingbusinessesfuellingrevenuegrowthOptionstobuildfuturebusinessesManagementimperativeUnlockincrementalgrowth,thenmanageforvalueasthebusinessdeclinesExerciseoptions,assemblerequiredcapabilities,anddrivebusiness-buildinginitiativesSourceoptions(ideas,relationships,assets)forfuturegrowthandtestviabilityofbusinessconceptsPrimaryfocusBottom-lineperformanceandprofitabilityTop-linegrowthandcapitalefficiencyFuturepotentialandrobustnessacrossmultiplescenarios3HorizonsofgrowthHorizon1HBalancedgrowthatCoca-ColaAmatil

TimeframeAustralasia1965Australia(69)1988NewZealand(55)WesternEurope1982Austria(42)1995Switzerland(35)ProfitYearofentry(consumptionofCoca-ColaAmatilproductsinlitrespercapita)Horizon3CreateviableoptionsHorizon2Buildemerging

businessesEasternEurope1991Hungary(30)1991CzechRepublic(14)1992Slovakia(11)1994Slovenia(25)1995Poland(8)1995Romania(15)1995Croatia(14)SoutheastAsia1991Indonesia(2)1997Philippines(15)FormerSovietrepublics1994Belarus(2)1994Ukraine(1)China/IndiaOptionwithRobert

Kuok?OptionwithSanMiguelOther(e.g.,furtherfranchises,smartcards,newproducts)Horizon1ExtendanddefendcorebusinessesBalancedgrowthatCoca-ColaAFinancialcharacteristicsHorizons2and3:Coca-ColaAmatilexample(Dec96)Forecastcashcontribution19961996A$Millions19271-12Forecastcashcontribution20151996A$Millions334727228CapexLowHighMediumRealgrowthinpre-capexcashflow1996–201555%227%911%Estimatedmarketvalue30%50%20%TimeframeProfitHorizon3FormerSovietrepublicsChina/AsiaOther(e.g.,furtherfranchises,smartcards,newproducts)Horizon2EasternEuropeIndonesiaHorizon1AustralasiaWesternEuropeFinancialcharacteristicsHoriChallengeofsimultaneouslymanaging3Horizons

•Profit•ROIC•Revenue•NPV•Optionvalue•Businessmaintainers•Businessbuilders•Championsandvisionaries•Fullyassembledcapabilityplatform•Capabilitiesbeingacquiredordeveloped•CapabilityrequirementsmaybeunclearMetricsPeopleCapabilitiesHorizon1ExtendanddefendcorebusinessesHorizon2BuildemergingbusinessesHorizon3CreateviableoptionsProfitTimeframeChallengeofsimultaneouslymaUnsustainablepatternsWeakStrongStrong,butunderattackRunningoutofsteamIdeasbutnotbuildingbusinessesFailingtoseedforthefutureLosingtherighttogrowLotsofexcitingoptionsbutnobodybuildingabusinessBuildingnextgenerationofbusinesses,butnotsecuringlong-termfutureOverfocusedoncorebusiness,restrictingfutureprospectsExcessivefocusongrowthatexpenseofcorebusinessCorebusinessunderseriousthreatwithnoemergingnewbusinessesUndersiege************************************UnsustainablepatternsWeakStroThreekeyconceptsBalancinggrowthacross3HorizonsBuildingbusinessesthroughastaircaseofinitiativesAcompanyasaportfolioofstaircasesThreekeyconceptsBalancinggrGrowthstaircasedynamics

Eachsteponstaircase•Capturesan