管理学课件第9章计划工作的工具和技术(PlanningToolsandTechniques)

9–1AssessingtheEnvironmentEnvironmentalScanning（环境扫描）Thescreeningoflargeamountsofinformationtoanticipateandinterpretchangeintheenvironment.CompetitorIntelligence（竞争对手情况）Theprocessofgatheringinformationaboutcompetitors—whotheyare;whattheyaredoingIsnotspyingbutrathercarefulattentiontoreadilyaccessibleinformationfromemployees,customers,suppliers,theInternet,andcompetitorsthemselves.Mayinvolvereverseengineeringofcompetingproductstodiscovertechnicalinnovations.9–1AssessingtheEnvironmentEn9–2AssessingtheEnvironment(cont’d)EnvironmentalScanning(cont’d)GlobalScanning（全球扫描）Screeningabroadscopeofinformationonglobalforcesthatmightaffecttheorganization.Hasvaluetofirmswithsignificantglobalinterests.Drawsinformationfromsourcesthatprovideglobalperspectivesonworld-wideissuesandopportunities.9–2AssessingtheEnvironment(9–3AssessingtheEnvironment(cont’d)Forecasting（预测）Thepartoforganizationalplanningthatinvolvescreatingpredictionsofoutcomesbasedoninformationgatheredbyenvironmentalscanning.Facilitatesmanagerial

decisionmaking.Ismostaccuratein

stableenvironments.9–3AssessingtheEnvironment(9–4AssessingtheEnvironment(cont’d)ForecastingTechniques（预测方法）QuantitativeforecastingApplyingasetofmathematicalrulestoaseriesofharddatatopredictoutcomes(e.g.,unitstobeproduced).QualitativeforecastingUsingexpertjudgmentsandopinionstopredictlessthanpreciseoutcomes(e.g.,directionoftheeconomy).CollaborativePlanning,Forecasting,andReplenishment(CPFR)SoftwareAstandardizedwayfororganizations

tousetheInternettoexchangedata.9–4AssessingtheEnvironment(9–5Exhibit9–1 ForecastingTechniquesQuantitative（定量方法）TimeseriesanalysisRegressionmodelsEconometricmodelsEconomicindicatorsSubstitutioneffect Qualitative（定性方法）JuryofopinionSalesforcecompositionCustomerevaluation9–5Exhibit9–1 ForecastingTec9–6MakingForecastingMoreEffectiveUsesimpleforecastingmethods.Compareeachforecastwithitscorresponding“nochange”forecast.Don’trelyonasingleforecastingmethod.Don’tassumethattheturningpointsinatrendcanbeaccuratelyidentified.Shortenthetimeperiodcoveredbyaforecast.Rememberthatforecastingisadevelopedmanagerialskillthatsupportsdecisionmaking.9–6MakingForecastingMoreEff9–7Benchmarking（标杆）Thesearchforthebestpracticesamongcompetitorsandnoncompetitorsthatleadtotheirsuperiorperformance.Byanalyzingandcopyingthesepractices,firmscanimprovetheirperformance.9–7Benchmarking（标杆）Thesearch9–8Exhibit9–2 StepsinBenchmarking（标杆比较的步骤）Source:BasedonY.K.Shetty,“AimingHigh:CompetitiveBenchmarkingforSuperiorPerformance,”

LongRangePlanning.February1993,p.42.9–8Exhibit9–2 StepsinBenchm9–9AllocatingResources（分配资源）TypesofResources（资源的种类）TheassetsoftheorganizationFinancial:debt,equity,andretainedearningsPhysical:buildings,equipment,andrawmaterialsHuman:experiences,skills,knowledge,andcompetenciesIntangible:brandnames,patents,reputation,trademarks,copyrights,anddatabases9–9AllocatingResources（分配资源）T9–10AllocatingResources:BudgetingBudgets（预算）Arenumericalplansforallocatingresources(e.g.,revenues,expenses,andcapitalexpenditures).Areusedtoimprovetime,space,anduseofmaterialresources.Arethemostcommonlyused

andmostwidelyapplicable

planningtechniquefor

organizations.9–10AllocatingResources:Budg9–11Exhibit9–3 TypesofBudgetsSource:BasedonR.S.RussellandB.W.TaylorIII.ProductionandOperationsManagement(UpperSaddleRiver,NJ:PrenticeHall,1995),p.287.9–11Exhibit9–3 TypesofBudge9–12Exhibit9–4 SuggestionsforImprovingBudgetingCollaborateandcommunicate.Beflexible.Goalsshoulddrivebudgets—budgetsshouldnotdeterminegoals.Coordinatebudgetingthroughouttheorganization.Usebudgeting/planningsoftwarewhenappropriate.Rememberthatbudgetsaretools.Rememberthatprofitsresultfromsmartmanagement,notbecauseyoubudgetedforthem.9–12Exhibit9–4 Suggestionsfo9–13AllocatingResources:SchedulingSchedulesPlansthatallocateresourcesbydetailingwhatactivitieshavetobedone,theorderinwhichtheyaretobecompleted,whoistodoeach,andwhentheyaretobecompleted.Representthecoordinationofvariousactivities.9–13AllocatingResources:Sche9–14AllocatingResources:ChartingGanttChart(甘特图)Abargraphwithtimeonthehorizontalaxisandactivitiestobeaccomplishedontheverticalaxis.Showstheexpectedandactualprogressofvarioustasks.LoadChart（负荷图

－改进的甘特图）AmodifiedGanttchartthatlistsentiredepartmentsorspecificresourcesontheverticalaxis.Allowsmanagerstoplanandcontrolcapacityutilization.9–14AllocatingResources:Char9–15Exhibit9–5 AGanttChart9–15Exhibit9–5 AGanttChart9–16Exhibit9–6 ALoadChart9–16Exhibit9–6 ALoadChart9–17AllocatingResources:AnalysisProgramEvaluationandReviewTechnique(PERT)（计划评审技术(PERT)网络分析）Aflowchartdiagramthatdepictsthesequenceofactivitiesneededtocompleteaprojectandthetimeorcostsassociatedwitheachactivity.Events:endpointsforcompletion.Activities:timerequiredforeachactivity.Slacktime:thetimethatacompletedactivitywaitsforanotheractivitytofinishsothatthenextactivity,whichdependsonthecompletionofbothactivities,canstart.Criticalpath:thepath(ordering)ofactivitiesthatallowsalltaskstobecompletedwiththeleastslacktime.9–17AllocatingResources:Anal9–18Exhibit9–7 StepsinDevelopingaPERTNetworkIdentifyeverysignificantactivitythatmustbeachievedforaprojecttobecompleted.Determinetheorderinwhichtheseeventsmustbecompleted.Diagramtheflowofactivitiesfromstarttofinish,identifyingeachactivityanditsrelationshiptoallotheractivities.Computeatimeestimateforcompletingeachactivity.Usingthenetworkdiagramthatcontainstimeestimatesforeachactivity,determineascheduleforthestartandfinishdatesofeachactivityandfortheentireproject.9–18Exhibit9–7 StepsinDevel9–19Exhibit9–8 EventsandActivitiesinConstructinganOfficeBuilding9–19Exhibit9–8 EventsandAct9–20Exhibit9–9 AVisualPERTNetworkforConstructinganOfficeBuildingCriticalPath:A-B-C-D-G-H-J-K9–20Exhibit9–9 AVisualPERT9–21AllocatingResources:Analysis(cont’d)BreakevenAnalysis(盈亏平衡分析)Isusedtodeterminethepointatwhichallfixedcostshavebeenrecoveredandprofitabilitybegins.Fixedcost(FC)Variablecosts(VC)TotalFixedCosts(TFC)Price(P)TheBreak-evenFormula（盈亏平衡点

）9–21AllocatingResources:Anal9–22Exhibit9–10 BreakevenAnalysis9–22Exhibit9–10 BreakevenAna9–23AllocatingResources:Analysis(cont’d)LinearProgramming（线性规划）Atechniquethatseekstosolveresourceallocationproblemsusingtheproportionalrelationshipsbetweentwovariables.9–23AllocatingResources:Anal9–24Exhibit9–11 ProductionDataforCinnamon-ScentedProducts9–24Exhibit9–11 ProductionDa9–25Exhibit9–12 GraphicalSolutiontoLinearProgrammingProblem（线性规划问题的图解法）Max.AssemblyMax.ManufacturingMax.ManufacturingMax.AssemblyMax.Profits9–25Exhibit9–12 GraphicalSol9–26ContemporaryPlanningTechniquesProject（项目

）Aone-time-onlysetofactivitiesthathasadefinitebeginningandendingpointtime.（是一次性的一组活动，它具有确定的开始时间和结束时间）ProjectManagement（项目管理）Thetaskofgettingaproject’sactivitiesdoneontime,withinbudget,andaccordingtospecifications.DefineprojectgoalsIdentifyallrequiredactivities,materials,andlaborDeterminethesequenceofcompletion9–26ContemporaryPlanningTech9–27Exhibit9–13 ProjectPlanningProcess（项目计划过程）Source:BasedonR.S.RussellandB.W.TaylorIII,ProductionandOperationsManagement(UpperSaddleRiver,NJ:PrenticeHall,1995),p.287.9–27Exhibit9–13 ProjectPlann9–28ContemporaryPlanningTechniques(cont’d)Scenario（脚本

）Aconsistentviewofwhatthefutureislikelytobe.（对未来可能是什么样的一种一贯的观点）ScenarioPlanning（脚本计划）Anattemptnottrytopredictthefuturebuttoreduceuncertaintybyplayingoutpotentialsituationsunderdifferentspecifiedconditions.(通过在不同的特定条件下演示可能的潜在状况来降低不确定性)ContingencyPlanningDevelopingscenariosthatallowmanagersdetermineinadvancewhattheiractionsshouldbeshouldaconsideredeventactuallyoccur.9–28ContemporaryPlanningTech9–29Exhibit9–14 PreparingforUnexpectedEvents(防备意外事件)Identifypotentialunexpectedevents.Determineifanyoftheseeventswouldhaveearlyindicators(指标).Setupaninformationgatheringsystemtoidentifyearlyindicators.Haveappropriateresponses(plans)inplaceiftheseunexpectedeventsoccur.Source:S.Caudron,“FrontviewMirror,”

BusinessFinance,December1999,pp.24–30.9–29Exhibit9–14 Preparingfor9–30AssessingtheEnvironmentEnvironmentalScanning（环境扫描）Thescreeningoflargeamountsofinformationtoanticipateandinterpretchangeintheenvironment.CompetitorIntelligence（竞争对手情况）Theprocessofgatheringinformationaboutcompetitors—whotheyare;whattheyaredoingIsnotspyingbutrathercarefulattentiontoreadilyaccessibleinformationfromemployees,customers,suppliers,theInternet,andcompetitorsthemselves.Mayinvolvereverseengineeringofcompetingproductstodiscovertechnicalinnovations.9–1AssessingtheEnvironmentEn9–31AssessingtheEnvironment(cont’d)EnvironmentalScanning(cont’d)GlobalScanning（全球扫描）Screeningabroadscopeofinformationonglobalforcesthatmightaffecttheorganization.Hasvaluetofirmswithsignificantglobalinterests.Drawsinformationfromsourcesthatprovideglobalperspectivesonworld-wideissuesandopportunities.9–2AssessingtheEnvironment(9–32AssessingtheEnvironment(cont’d)Forecasting（预测）Thepartoforganizationalplanningthatinvolvescreatingpredictionsofoutcomesbasedoninformationgatheredbyenvironmentalscanning.Facilitatesmanagerial

decisionmaking.Ismostaccuratein

stableenvironments.9–3AssessingtheEnvironment(9–33AssessingtheEnvironment(cont’d)ForecastingTechniques（预测方法）QuantitativeforecastingApplyingasetofmathematicalrulestoaseriesofharddatatopredictoutcomes(e.g.,unitstobeproduced).QualitativeforecastingUsingexpertjudgmentsandopinionstopredictlessthanpreciseoutcomes(e.g.,directionoftheeconomy).CollaborativePlanning,Forecasting,andReplenishment(CPFR)SoftwareAstandardizedwayfororganizations

tousetheInternettoexchangedata.9–4AssessingtheEnvironment(9–34Exhibit9–1 ForecastingTechniquesQuantitative（定量方法）TimeseriesanalysisRegressionmodelsEconometricmodelsEconomicindicatorsSubstitutioneffect Qualitative（定性方法）JuryofopinionSalesforcecompositionCustomerevaluation9–5Exhibit9–1 ForecastingTec9–35MakingForecastingMoreEffectiveUsesimpleforecastingmethods.Compareeachforecastwithitscorresponding“nochange”forecast.Don’trelyonasingleforecastingmethod.Don’tassumethattheturningpointsinatrendcanbeaccuratelyidentified.Shortenthetimeperiodcoveredbyaforecast.Rememberthatforecastingisadevelopedmanagerialskillthatsupportsdecisionmaking.9–6MakingForecastingMoreEff9–36Benchmarking（标杆）Thesearchforthebestpracticesamongcompetitorsandnoncompetitorsthatleadtotheirsuperiorperformance.Byanalyzingandcopyingthesepractices,firmscanimprovetheirperformance.9–7Benchmarking（标杆）Thesearch9–37Exhibit9–2 StepsinBenchmarking（标杆比较的步骤）Source:BasedonY.K.Shetty,“AimingHigh:CompetitiveBenchmarkingforSuperiorPerformance,”

LongRangePlanning.February1993,p.42.9–8Exhibit9–2 StepsinBenchm9–38AllocatingResources（分配资源）TypesofResources（资源的种类）TheassetsoftheorganizationFinancial:debt,equity,andretainedearningsPhysical:buildings,equipment,andrawmaterialsHuman:experiences,skills,knowledge,andcompetenciesIntangible:brandnames,patents,reputation,trademarks,copyrights,anddatabases9–9AllocatingResources（分配资源）T9–39AllocatingResources:BudgetingBudgets（预算）Arenumericalplansforallocatingresources(e.g.,revenues,expenses,andcapitalexpenditures).Areusedtoimprovetime,space,anduseofmaterialresources.Arethemostcommonlyused

andmostwidelyapplicable

planningtechniquefor

organizations.9–10AllocatingResources:Budg9–40Exhibit9–3 TypesofBudgetsSource:BasedonR.S.RussellandB.W.TaylorIII.ProductionandOperationsManagement(UpperSaddleRiver,NJ:PrenticeHall,1995),p.287.9–11Exhibit9–3 TypesofBudge9–41Exhibit9–4 SuggestionsforImprovingBudgetingCollaborateandcommunicate.Beflexible.Goalsshoulddrivebudgets—budgetsshouldnotdeterminegoals.Coordinatebudgetingthroughouttheorganization.Usebudgeting/planningsoftwarewhenappropriate.Rememberthatbudgetsaretools.Rememberthatprofitsresultfromsmartmanagement,notbecauseyoubudgetedforthem.9–12Exhibit9–4 Suggestionsfo9–42AllocatingResources:SchedulingSchedulesPlansthatallocateresourcesbydetailingwhatactivitieshavetobedone,theorderinwhichtheyaretobecompleted,whoistodoeach,andwhentheyaretobecompleted.Representthecoordinationofvariousactivities.9–13AllocatingResources:Sche9–43AllocatingResources:ChartingGanttChart(甘特图)Abargraphwithtimeonthehorizontalaxisandactivitiestobeaccomplishedontheverticalaxis.Showstheexpectedandactualprogressofvarioustasks.LoadChart（负荷图

－改进的甘特图）AmodifiedGanttchartthatlistsentiredepartmentsorspecificresourcesontheverticalaxis.Allowsmanagerstoplanandcontrolcapacityutilization.9–14AllocatingResources:Char9–44Exhibit9–5 AGanttChart9–15Exhibit9–5 AGanttChart9–45Exhibit9–6 ALoadChart9–16Exhibit9–6 ALoadChart9–46AllocatingResources:AnalysisProgramEvaluationandReviewTechnique(PERT)（计划评审技术(PERT)网络分析）Aflowchartdiagramthatdepictsthesequenceofactivitiesneededtocompleteaprojectandthetimeorcostsassociatedwitheachactivity.Events:endpointsforcompletion.Activities:timerequiredforeachactivity.Slacktime:thetimethatacompletedactivitywaitsforanotheractivitytofinishsothatthenextactivity,whichdependsonthecompletionofbothactivities,canstart.Criticalpath:thepath(ordering)ofactivitiesthatallowsalltaskstobecompletedwiththeleastslacktime.9–17AllocatingResources:Anal9–47Exhibit9–7 StepsinDevelopingaPERTNetworkIdentifyeverysignificantactivitythatmustbeachievedforaprojecttobecompleted.Determinetheorderinwhichtheseeventsmustbecompleted.Diagramtheflowofactivitiesfromstarttofinish,identifyingeachactivityanditsrelationshiptoallotheractivities.Computeatimeestimateforcompletingeachactivity.Usingthenetworkdiagramthatcontainstimeestimatesforeachactivity,determineascheduleforthestartandfinishdatesofeachactivityandfortheentireproject.9–18Exhibit9–7 StepsinDevel9–48Exhibit9–8 EventsandActivitiesinConstructinganOfficeBuilding9–19Exhibit9–8 EventsandAct9–49Exhibit9–9 AVisualPERTNetworkforConstructinganOfficeBuildingCriticalPath:A-B-C-D-G-H-J-K9–20Exhibit9–9 AVisualPERT9–50AllocatingResources:Analysis(cont’d)BreakevenAnalysis(盈亏平衡分析)Isusedtodeterminethepointatwhichallfixedcostshavebeenrecoveredandprofitabilitybegins.Fixedcost(FC)Variablecosts(VC)TotalFixedCosts(TFC)Price(P)TheBreak-evenFormula（盈亏平衡点

）9–21AllocatingResources:Anal9–51Exhibit9–10 BreakevenAnalysis9–22Exhibit9–10 BreakevenAna9–52AllocatingResources:Analysis(cont’d)LinearProgramming（线性规划）Atechniquethatseekstosolveresourceallocationproblemsusingtheproportionalrelationshipsbetweentwovariables.9–23AllocatingResources:Anal9–53Exhibit9–11 ProductionDataforCinnamon-ScentedProducts9–24Exhibit9–11 ProductionDa9–5