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LearningobjectivesThischapterintroducesyoutotheissuesmacroeconomistsstudythetoolsmacroeconomistsusesomeimportantconceptsinmacroeconomicanalysisLearningobjectivesThischapteImportantissuesinmacroeconomicsWhydoesthecostoflivingkeeprising?Whyaremillionsofpeopleunemployed,evenwhentheeconomyisbooming?Whyarethererecessions?
Canthegovernmentdoanythingtocombatrecessions?Shouldit??ImportantissuesinmacroeconoImportantissuesinmacroeconomicsWhatisthegovernmentbudgetdeficit?Howdoesitaffecttheeconomy?WhydoestheU.S.havesuchahugetradedeficit?Whyaresomanycountriespoor?
Whatpoliciesmighthelpthemgrowoutofpoverty?ImportantissuesinmacroeconoU.S.GrossDomesticProduct
inbillionsofchained1996dollarslong-runupwardtrend…U.S.GrossDomesticProduct
iU.S.GrossDomesticProduct
inbillionsofchained1996dollarsRecessionslongesteconomicexpansiononrecordU.S.GrossDomesticProduct
iWhylearnmacroeconomics?Themacroeconomyaffectssociety’swell-being.example:
UnemploymentandsocialproblemsWhylearnmacroeconomics?ThemUnemploymentandsocialproblemsEachone-pointincreaseinthe
unemploymentrateisassociatedwith:920moresuicides（自杀）650morehomicides（杀人）4000morepeopleadmittedtostatementalinstitutions（精神病院）3300morepeoplesenttostateprisons37,000moredeathsincreasesindomesticviolenceandhomelessnessUnemploymentandsocialprobleWhylearnmacroeconomics?Themacroeconomyaffectssociety’swell-being.example:
UnemploymentandsocialproblemsThemacroeconomyaffectsyourwell-being.example1:
Unemploymentandearningsgrowthexample2:
InterestratesandmortgagepaymentsWhylearnmacroeconomics?ThemUnemploymentandearningsgrowthUnemploymentandearningsgrowInterestratesandmortgagepaymentsFora$150,00030-yearmortgage:$11,782$9816.84%Dec2001$12,771$10647.65%Dec2000annualpaymentmonthlypaymentactualrateon30-yearmortgagedateInterestratesandmortgagepaWhylearnmacroeconomics?Themacroeconomyaffectssociety’swell-being.example:
UnemploymentandsocialproblemsThemacroeconomyaffectsyourwell-being.example1:
Unemploymentandearningsgrowthexample2:
InterestratesandmortgagepaymentsThemacroeconomyaffectspolitics¤tevents.example:
InflationandunemploymentinelectionyearsWhylearnmacroeconomics?ThemInflationandUnemploymentinElectionYearsyear Urate inflationrate elec.outcome1976 7.7% 5.8% Carter(D)1980 7.1% 13.5% Reagan(R)1984 7.5% 4.3% Reagan(R)1988 5.5% 4.1% BushI(R)1992 7.5% 3.0% Clinton(D)1996 5.4% 3.3% Clinton(D)2000 4.0% 3.4% BushII(R)InflationandUnemploymentinEconomicmodels…aresimpliedversionsofamorecomplexrealityirrelevantdetailsarestrippedawayUsedtoshowtherelationshipsbetweeneconomicvariablesexplaintheeconomy’sbehaviordevisepoliciestoimproveeconomicperformanceEconomicmodels…aresimpliedvExampleofamodel:
Thesupply&demandfornewcarsexplainsthefactorsthatdeterminethepriceofcarsandthequantitysold.assumesthemarketiscompetitive:eachbuyerandselleristoosmalltoaffectthemarketpriceVariables:Q
d=quantityofcarsthatbuyersdemandQ
s=quantitythatproducerssupplyP=priceofnewcarsY=aggregateincomePs=priceofsteel(aninput)Exampleofamodel:
ThesuppThedemandforcarsshowsthatthequantity
ofcarsconsumersdemand
isrelatedtothepriceofcars
andaggregateincome.ThedemandforcarsshowsthatDigression:FunctionalnotationGeneralfunctionalnotationshowsonlythatthevariablesarerelated:Alistofthevariables
thataffectQ
dDigression:FunctionalnotatiDigression(枝节话):FunctionalnotationGeneralfunctionalnotationshowsonlythatthevariablesarerelated:Aspecificfunctionalformshowstheprecise（准确地）quantitativerelationship:Digression(枝节话):FunctionalnThemarketforcars:demandQQuantityofcarsP
Price
ofcarsDThedemandcurveshowstherelationshipbetweenquantitydemandedandprice,otherthingsequal.Themarketforcars:demandQThemarketforcars:supplyQQuantityofcarsP
Price
ofcarsDSThesupplycurveshowstherelationshipbetweenquantitysuppliedandprice,otherthingsequal.Themarketforcars:supplyQThemarketforcars:equilibriumQQuantityofcarsP
Price
ofcarsSDequilibriumpriceequilibrium
quantityThemarketforcars:equilibrTheeffectsofanincreaseinincome:D2QQuantityofcarsP
Price
ofcarsSD1Q1P1Anincreaseinincomeincreasesthequantity
ofcarsconsumersdemandateachprice……whichincreasestheequilibriumpriceandquantity.P2Q2TheeffectsofanincreaseinTheeffectsofasteelpriceincrease:QQuantityofcarsP
Price
ofcarsS1DQ1P1AnincreaseinPsreducesthequantityofcarsproducerssupplyateachprice……whichincreasesthemarketpriceandreducesthequantity.P2Q2S2TheeffectsofasteelpriceiEndogenousvs.exogenous
variables:Thevaluesofendogenousvariables（内生变量）
aredeterminedinthemodel.Thevaluesofexogenousvariables（外生变量）
aredeterminedoutsidethemodel:
themodeltakestheirvalues&behavior
asgiven.Inthemodelofsupply&demandforcars,Endogenousvs.exogenousvariaNowyoutry:Writedowndemandandsupply
equationsforwirelessphones;
includetwoexogenousvariables
ineachequation.Drawasupply-demandgraph
forwirelessphones.Useyourgraphtoshowhowachangeinoneofyourexogenousvariablesaffectsthemodel’sendogenousvariables.Nowyoutry:WritedowndemandAMultitude（大量）ofModelsNoonemodelcanaddressalltheissueswecareabout.Forexample,Ifwewanttoknowhowafallinaggregateincomeaffectsnewcarprices,wecanusetheS/Dmodelfornewcars.Butifwewanttoknowwhyaggregateincomefalls,weneedadifferentmodel.AMultitude（大量）ofModelsNoonAMultitudeofModelsSowewilllearndifferentmodelsforstudyingdifferentissues(e.g.unemployment,inflation,long-rungrowth).Foreachnewmodel,youshouldkeeptrackofitsassumptions,whichofitsvariablesareendogenousandwhichareexogenous,thequestionsitcanhelpusunderstand,andthoseitcannot.AMultitudeofModelsSowewilPrices:Flexible（灵活的）VersusSticky（粘性的）Marketclearing:anassumptionthatpricesareflexibleandadjusttoequatesupplyanddemand.Intheshortrun,manypricesaresticky---theyadjustonlysluggishly(缓慢地)inresponsetosupply/demandimbalances.
Forexample,laborcontractsthatfixthenominalwageforayearorlongermagazinepricesthatpublisherschangeonlyonceevery3-4yearsPrices:Flexible（灵活的）VersusPrices:FlexibleVersusStickyTheeconomy’sbehaviordependspartlyonwhetherpricesarestickyorflexible:Ifpricesaresticky,thendemandwon’talwaysequalsupply.Thishelpsexplainunemployment(excesssupplyoflabor)theoccasionalinabilityoffirmstosellwhattheyproduceLongrun:pricesflexible,marketsclear,economybehavesverydifferently.Prices:FlexibleVersusStickOutlineofthisbook:Introductorymaterial(chaps.1&2)ClassicalTheory
(chaps.3-6)
Howtheeconomyworksinthelongrun,whenpricesareflexibleGrowthTheory
(chaps.7-8)
ThestandardoflivinganditsgrowthrateovertheverylongrunBusinessCycleTheory
(chaps9-13)
Howtheeconomyworksintheshortrun,whenpricesaresticky.Outlineofthisbook:IntroductOutlineofthisbook:Policydebates
(Chaps.14-15)
Shouldthegovernmenttrytosmoothbusinesscyclefluctuations?Isthegovernment’sdebtaproblem?Microeconomicfoundations
(Chaps.16-19)
Insightsfromlookingatthebehaviorofconsumers,firms,andotherissuesfromamicroeconomicperspective.Outlineofthisbook:PolicydeChaptersummaryMacroeconomicsisthestudyoftheeconomyasawhole,includinggrowthinincomeschangesintheoveralllevelofpricestheunemploymentrateMacroeconomistsattempttoexplaintheeconomyandtodevisepoliciestoimproveitsperformance.ChaptersummaryMacroeconomicsChaptersummaryEconomistsusedifferentmodelstoexaminedifferentissues.Modelswithflexiblepricesdescribetheeconomyinthelongrun;modelswithstickypricesdescribeeconomyintheshortrun.Macroeconomiceventsandperformancearisefrommanymicroeconomictransactions,somacroeconomicsusesmanyofthetoolsofmicroeconomics.ChaptersummaryEconomistsuseLearningobjectivesThischapterintroducesyoutotheissuesmacroeconomistsstudythetoolsmacroeconomistsusesomeimportantconceptsinmacroeconomicanalysisLearningobjectivesThischapteImportantissuesinmacroeconomicsWhydoesthecostoflivingkeeprising?Whyaremillionsofpeopleunemployed,evenwhentheeconomyisbooming?Whyarethererecessions?
Canthegovernmentdoanythingtocombatrecessions?Shouldit??ImportantissuesinmacroeconoImportantissuesinmacroeconomicsWhatisthegovernmentbudgetdeficit?Howdoesitaffecttheeconomy?WhydoestheU.S.havesuchahugetradedeficit?Whyaresomanycountriespoor?
Whatpoliciesmighthelpthemgrowoutofpoverty?ImportantissuesinmacroeconoU.S.GrossDomesticProduct
inbillionsofchained1996dollarslong-runupwardtrend…U.S.GrossDomesticProduct
iU.S.GrossDomesticProduct
inbillionsofchained1996dollarsRecessionslongesteconomicexpansiononrecordU.S.GrossDomesticProduct
iWhylearnmacroeconomics?Themacroeconomyaffectssociety’swell-being.example:
UnemploymentandsocialproblemsWhylearnmacroeconomics?ThemUnemploymentandsocialproblemsEachone-pointincreaseinthe
unemploymentrateisassociatedwith:920moresuicides（自杀）650morehomicides（杀人）4000morepeopleadmittedtostatementalinstitutions（精神病院）3300morepeoplesenttostateprisons37,000moredeathsincreasesindomesticviolenceandhomelessnessUnemploymentandsocialprobleWhylearnmacroeconomics?Themacroeconomyaffectssociety’swell-being.example:
UnemploymentandsocialproblemsThemacroeconomyaffectsyourwell-being.example1:
Unemploymentandearningsgrowthexample2:
InterestratesandmortgagepaymentsWhylearnmacroeconomics?ThemUnemploymentandearningsgrowthUnemploymentandearningsgrowInterestratesandmortgagepaymentsFora$150,00030-yearmortgage:$11,782$9816.84%Dec2001$12,771$10647.65%Dec2000annualpaymentmonthlypaymentactualrateon30-yearmortgagedateInterestratesandmortgagepaWhylearnmacroeconomics?Themacroeconomyaffectssociety’swell-being.example:
UnemploymentandsocialproblemsThemacroeconomyaffectsyourwell-being.example1:
Unemploymentandearningsgrowthexample2:
InterestratesandmortgagepaymentsThemacroeconomyaffectspolitics¤tevents.example:
InflationandunemploymentinelectionyearsWhylearnmacroeconomics?ThemInflationandUnemploymentinElectionYearsyear Urate inflationrate elec.outcome1976 7.7% 5.8% Carter(D)1980 7.1% 13.5% Reagan(R)1984 7.5% 4.3% Reagan(R)1988 5.5% 4.1% BushI(R)1992 7.5% 3.0% Clinton(D)1996 5.4% 3.3% Clinton(D)2000 4.0% 3.4% BushII(R)InflationandUnemploymentinEconomicmodels…aresimpliedversionsofamorecomplexrealityirrelevantdetailsarestrippedawayUsedtoshowtherelationshipsbetweeneconomicvariablesexplaintheeconomy’sbehaviordevisepoliciestoimproveeconomicperformanceEconomicmodels…aresimpliedvExampleofamodel:
Thesupply&demandfornewcarsexplainsthefactorsthatdeterminethepriceofcarsandthequantitysold.assumesthemarketiscompetitive:eachbuyerandselleristoosmalltoaffectthemarketpriceVariables:Q
d=quantityofcarsthatbuyersdemandQ
s=quantitythatproducerssupplyP=priceofnewcarsY=aggregateincomePs=priceofsteel(aninput)Exampleofamodel:
ThesuppThedemandforcarsshowsthatthequantity
ofcarsconsumersdemand
isrelatedtothepriceofcars
andaggregateincome.ThedemandforcarsshowsthatDigression:FunctionalnotationGeneralfunctionalnotationshowsonlythatthevariablesarerelated:Alistofthevariables
thataffectQ
dDigression:FunctionalnotatiDigression(枝节话):FunctionalnotationGeneralfunctionalnotationshowsonlythatthevariablesarerelated:Aspecificfunctionalformshowstheprecise（准确地）quantitativerelationship:Digression(枝节话):FunctionalnThemarketforcars:demandQQuantityofcarsP
Price
ofcarsDThedemandcurveshowstherelationshipbetweenquantitydemandedandprice,otherthingsequal.Themarketforcars:demandQThemarketforcars:supplyQQuantityofcarsP
Price
ofcarsDSThesupplycurveshowstherelationshipbetweenquantitysuppliedandprice,otherthingsequal.Themarketforcars:supplyQThemarketforcars:equilibriumQQuantityofcarsP
Price
ofcarsSDequilibriumpriceequilibrium
quantityThemarketforcars:equilibrTheeffectsofanincreaseinincome:D2QQuantityofcarsP
Price
ofcarsSD1Q1P1Anincreaseinincomeincreasesthequantity
ofcarsconsumersdemandateachprice……whichincreasestheequilibriumpriceandquantity.P2Q2TheeffectsofanincreaseinTheeffectsofasteelpriceincrease:QQuantityofcarsP
Price
ofcarsS1DQ1P1AnincreaseinPsreducesthequantityofcarsproducerssupplyateachprice……whichincreasesthemarketpriceandreducesthequantity.P2Q2S2TheeffectsofasteelpriceiEndogenousvs.exogenous
variables:Thevaluesofendogenousvariables（内生变量）
aredeterminedinthemodel.Thevaluesofexogenousvariables（外生变量）
aredeterminedoutsidethemodel:
themodeltakestheirvalues&behavior
asgiven.Inthemodelofsupply&demandforcars,Endogenousvs.exogenousvariaNowyoutry:Writedowndemandandsupply
equationsforwirelessphones;
includetwoexogenousvariables
ineachequation.Drawasupply-demandgraph
forwirelessphones.Useyourgraphtoshowhowachangeinoneofyourexogenousvariablesaffectsthemodel’sendogenousvariables.Nowyoutry:WritedowndemandAMultitude（大量）ofModelsNoonemodelcanaddressalltheissueswecareabout.Forexample,Ifwewanttoknowhowafallinaggregateincomeaffectsnewcarprices,wecanusetheS/Dmodelfornewcars.Butifwewanttoknowwhyaggregateincomefalls,weneedadifferentmodel.AMultitude（大量）ofModelsNoonAMultitudeofModelsSowewilllearndifferentmodelsforstudyingdifferentissues(e.g.unemployment,inflation,long-rungrowth).Foreachnewmodel,youshouldkeeptrackofitsassumptions,whichofitsvariablesareendogenousandwhichareexogenous,thequestionsitcanhelpusunderstand,andthoseitcannot.AMultitudeofModelsSowewilPrices:Flexible（灵活的）VersusSticky（粘性的）Marketclearing:anassumptionthatpricesareflexibleandadjusttoequatesupplyanddemand.Intheshortrun,manypricesaresticky---theyadjustonlysluggishly(缓慢地)inresponsetosupply/demandimbalances.
Forexample,laborcontractsthatfixthenominalwageforayearorlongermagazinepricesthatpublisherschangeonlyonceevery3-4yearsPrices:Flexible（灵活的）VersusPrices:FlexibleVersusStickyTheeconomy’sbehaviordepen
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