02决策支持系统模型与支持解析课件

Chapter2

Decision-MakingSystems,Models,andSupportTurban,Aronson,andLiangDecisionSupportSystemsandIntelligentSystems,SeventhEdition1©2005PrenticeHall,DecisionSupportSystemsandIntelligentSystems,7thEdition,Turban,Aronson,andLiangChapter2

Decision-MakingSystLearningObjectivesLearnthebasicconceptsofdecisionmaking.Understandsystemsapproach.LearnSimon’sfourphasesofdecisionmaking.Understandtheconceptsofrationalityandboundedrationality.Differentiatebetwixtmakingachoiceandestablishingaprincipleofchoice.Learnwhichfactorsaffectdecisionmaking.LearnhowDSSsupportsdecisionmakinginpractice.2©2005PrenticeHall,DecisionSupportSystemsandIntelligentSystems,7thEdition,Turban,Aronson,andLiangLearningObjectivesLearnthebStandardMotorProductsShiftsGearsIntoTeam-BasedDecision-MakingVignetteTeam-baseddecisionmakingIncreasedinformationsharingDailyfeedbackSelf-empowermentShiftingresponsibilitytowardsteamsEliminationofmiddlemanagement3©2005PrenticeHall,DecisionSupportSystemsandIntelligentSystems,7thEdition,Turban,Aronson,andLiangStandardMotorProductsShiftsDecisionMakingProcessofchoosingamongstalternativecoursesofactionforthepurposeofattainingagoalorgoals.Thefourphasesofthedecisionprocessare:IntelligenceDesignChoiceimplementation4©2005PrenticeHall,DecisionSupportSystemsandIntelligentSystems,7thEdition,Turban,Aronson,andLiangDecisionMakingProcessofchooSystemsStructureInputsProcessesOutputsFeedbackfromoutputtodecisionmakerSeparatedfromenvironmentbyboundarySurroundedbyenvironment

InputProcessesOutputboundaryEnvironment5©2005PrenticeHall,DecisionSupportSystemsandIntelligentSystems,7thEdition,Turban,Aronson,andLiangSystemsStructureInputProcesses6©2005PrenticeHall,DecisionSupportSystemsandIntelligentSystems,7thEdition,Turban,Aronson,andLiang6©2005PrenticeHall,DecisiSystemTypesClosedsystemIndependentTakesnoinputsDeliversnooutputstotheenvironmentBlackBoxOpensystemAcceptsinputsDeliversoutputstoenvironment7©2005PrenticeHall,DecisionSupportSystemsandIntelligentSystems,7thEdition,Turban,Aronson,andLiangSystemTypesClosedsystem7©20ModelsUsedforDSSIconicSmallphysicalreplicationofsystemAnalogBehavioralrepresentationofsystemMaynotlooklikesystemQuantitative(mathematical)Demonstratesrelationshipsbetweensystems8©2005PrenticeHall,DecisionSupportSystemsandIntelligentSystems,7thEdition,Turban,Aronson,andLiangModelsUsedforDSSIconic8©209©2005PrenticeHall,DecisionSupportSystemsandIntelligentSystems,7thEdition,Turban,Aronson,andLiang9©2005PrenticeHall,DecisiPhasesofDecision-MakingSimon’soriginalthreephases:IntelligenceDesignChoiceHeaddedfourthphaselater:ImplementationBookaddsfifthstage:Monitoring10©2005PrenticeHall,DecisionSupportSystemsandIntelligentSystems,7thEdition,Turban,Aronson,andLiangPhasesofDecision-MakingSimoDecision-MakingIntelligencePhaseScantheenvironmentAnalyzeorganizationalgoalsCollectdataIdentifyproblemCategorizeproblemProgrammedandnon-programmedDecomposedintosmallerpartsAssessownershipandresponsibilityforproblemresolution11©2005PrenticeHall,DecisionSupportSystemsandIntelligentSystems,7thEdition,Turban,Aronson,andLiangDecision-MakingIntelligencePDecision-MakingDesignPhaseDevelopalternativecoursesofactionAnalyzepotentialsolutionsCreatemodelTestforfeasibilityValidateresultsSelectaprincipleofchoiceEstablishobjectivesIncorporateintomodelsRiskassessmentandacceptanceCriteriaandconstraints12©2005PrenticeHall,DecisionSupportSystemsandIntelligentSystems,7thEdition,Turban,Aronson,andLiangDecision-MakingDesignPhaseDeDecision-MakingChoicePhasePrincipleofchoiceDescribesacceptabilityofasolutionapproachNormativeModelsOptimizationEffectofeachalternativeRationalizationMoreofgoodthings,lessofbadthingsCoursesofactionareknownquantityOptionsrankedfrombesttoworseSuboptimizationDecisionsmadeinseparatepartsoforganizationwithoutconsiderationofwhole13©2005PrenticeHall,DecisionSupportSystemsandIntelligentSystems,7thEdition,Turban,Aronson,andLiangDecision-MakingChoicePhasePrDescriptiveModelsDescribehowthingsarebelievedtobeTypically,mathematicallybasedAppliessinglesetofalternativesExamples:SimulationsWhat-ifscenariosCognitivemapNarratives14©2005PrenticeHall,DecisionSupportSystemsandIntelligentSystems,7thEdition,Turban,Aronson,andLiangDescriptiveModelsDescribehowDevelopingAlternativesGenerationofalternativesMaybeautomaticormanualMaybelegion,leadingtoinformationoverloadScenariosEvaluatewithheuristicsOutcomemeasuredbygoalattainment15©2005PrenticeHall,DecisionSupportSystemsandIntelligentSystems,7thEdition,Turban,Aronson,andLiangDevelopingAlternativesGeneratProblemsSatisficingisthewillingnesstosettleforlessthanideal.FormofsuboptimizationBoundedrationalityLimitedhumancapacityLimitedbyindividualdifferencesandbiasesToomanychoices16©2005PrenticeHall,DecisionSupportSystemsandIntelligentSystems,7thEdition,Turban,Aronson,andLiangProblemsSatisficingisthewilDecision-MakingChoicePhaseDecisionmakingwithcommitmenttoactDeterminecoursesofactionAnalyticaltechniquesAlgorithmsHeuristicsBlindsearchesAnalyzeforrobustness17©2005PrenticeHall,DecisionSupportSystemsandIntelligentSystems,7thEdition,Turban,Aronson,andLiangDecision-MakingChoicePhaseDeDecision-MakingImplementationPhasePuttingsolutiontoworkVagueboundarieswhichinclude:DealingwithresistancetochangeUsertrainingUppermanagementsupport18©2005PrenticeHall,DecisionSupportSystemsandIntelligentSystems,7thEdition,Turban,Aronson,andLiangDecision-MakingImplementationSource:BasedonSprague,R.H.,Jr.,“AFrameworkfortheDevelopmentofDSS.”MISQuarterly,Dec.1980,Fig.5,p.13.19©2005PrenticeHall,DecisionSupportSystemsandIntelligentSystems,7thEdition,Turban,Aronson,andLiangSource:BasedonSprague,R.H.DecisionSupportSystemsIntelligencePhaseAutomaticDataMiningExpertsystems,CRM,neuralnetworksManualOLAPKMSReportingRoutineandadhoc20©2005PrenticeHall,DecisionSupportSystemsandIntelligentSystems,7thEdition,Turban,Aronson,andLiangDecisionSupportSystemsIntellDecisionSupportSystemsDesignPhaseFinancialandforecastingmodelsGenerationofalternativesbyexpertsystemRelationshipidentificationthroughOLAPanddataminingRecognitionthroughKMSBusinessprocessmodelsfromCRM,RMS,ERP,andSCM21©2005PrenticeHall,DecisionSupportSystemsandIntelligentSystems,7thEdition,Turban,Aronson,andLiangDecisionSupportSystemsDesignDecisionSupportSystemsChoicePhaseIdentificationofbestalternativeIdentificationofgoodenoughalternativeWhat-ifanalysisGoal-seekinganalysisMayuseKMS,GSS,CRM,ERP,andSCMsystems22©2005PrenticeHall,DecisionSupportSystemsandIntelligentSystems,7thEdition,Turban,Aronson,andLiangDecisionSupportSystemsChoiceDecisionSupportSystemsImplementationPhaseImprovedcommunicationsCollaborationTrainingSupportedbyKMS,expertsystems,GSS23©2005PrenticeHall,DecisionSupportSystemsandIntelligentSystems,7thEdition,Turban,Aronson,andLiangDecisionSupportSystemsImplemDecision-MakingInHumansTemperamentHippocrates’personalitytypesMyers-Briggs’TypeIndicatorKierseyandBates’TypesandMotivationsBirkman’sTrueColoursGender24©2005PrenticeHall,DecisionSupportSystemsandIntelligentSystems,7thEdition,Turban,Aronson,andLiangDecision-MakingInHumansTempeDecision-MakingInHumansCognitivestylesWhatisperceived?Howisitorganized?SubjectiveDecisionstylesHowdopeoplethink?Howdotheyreact?Heuristic,analytical,autocratic,democratic,consultative25©2005PrenticeHall,DecisionSupportSystemsandIntelligentSystems,7thEdition,Turban,Aronson,andLiangDecision-MakingInHumansCogni26©2005PrenticeHall,DecisionSupportSystemsandIntelligentSystems,7thEdition,Turban,Aronson,andLiang26©2005PrenticeHall,DecisChapter2

Decision-MakingSystems,Models,andSupportTurban,Aronson,andLiangDecisionSupportSystemsandIntelligentSystems,SeventhEdition27©2005PrenticeHall,DecisionSupportSystemsandIntelligentSystems,7thEdition,Turban,Aronson,andLiangChapter2

Decision-MakingSystLearningObjectivesLearnthebasicconceptsofdecisionmaking.Understandsystemsapproach.LearnSimon’sfourphasesofdecisionmaking.Understandtheconceptsofrationalityandboundedrationality.Differentiatebetwixtmakingachoiceandestablishingaprincipleofchoice.Learnwhichfactorsaffectdecisionmaking.LearnhowDSSsupportsdecisionmakinginpractice.28©2005PrenticeHall,DecisionSupportSystemsandIntelligentSystems,7thEdition,Turban,Aronson,andLiangLearningObjectivesLearnthebStandardMotorProductsShiftsGearsIntoTeam-BasedDecision-MakingVignetteTeam-baseddecisionmakingIncreasedinformationsharingDailyfeedbackSelf-empowermentShiftingresponsibilitytowardsteamsEliminationofmiddlemanagement29©2005PrenticeHall,DecisionSupportSystemsandIntelligentSystems,7thEdition,Turban,Aronson,andLiangStandardMotorProductsShiftsDecisionMakingProcessofchoosingamongstalternativecoursesofactionforthepurposeofattainingagoalorgoals.Thefourphasesofthedecisionprocessare:IntelligenceDesignChoiceimplementation30©2005PrenticeHall,DecisionSupportSystemsandIntelligentSystems,7thEdition,Turban,Aronson,andLiangDecisionMakingProcessofchooSystemsStructureInputsProcessesOutputsFeedbackfromoutputtodecisionmakerSeparatedfromenvironmentbyboundarySurroundedbyenvironment

InputProcessesOutputboundaryEnvironment31©2005PrenticeHall,DecisionSupportSystemsandIntelligentSystems,7thEdition,Turban,Aronson,andLiangSystemsStructureInputProcesses32©2005PrenticeHall,DecisionSupportSystemsandIntelligentSystems,7thEdition,Turban,Aronson,andLiang6©2005PrenticeHall,DecisiSystemTypesClosedsystemIndependentTakesnoinputsDeliversnooutputstotheenvironmentBlackBoxOpensystemAcceptsinputsDeliversoutputstoenvironment33©2005PrenticeHall,DecisionSupportSystemsandIntelligentSystems,7thEdition,Turban,Aronson,andLiangSystemTypesClosedsystem7©20ModelsUsedforDSSIconicSmallphysicalreplicationofsystemAnalogBehavioralrepresentationofsystemMaynotlooklikesystemQuantitative(mathematical)Demonstratesrelationshipsbetweensystems34©2005PrenticeHall,DecisionSupportSystemsandIntelligentSystems,7thEdition,Turban,Aronson,andLiangModelsUsedforDSSIconic8©2035©2005PrenticeHall,DecisionSupportSystemsandIntelligentSystems,7thEdition,Turban,Aronson,andLiang9©2005PrenticeHall,DecisiPhasesofDecision-MakingSimon’soriginalthreephases:IntelligenceDesignChoiceHeaddedfourthphaselater:ImplementationBookaddsfifthstage:Monitoring36©2005PrenticeHall,DecisionSupportSystemsandIntelligentSystems,7thEdition,Turban,Aronson,andLiangPhasesofDecision-MakingSimoDecision-MakingIntelligencePhaseScantheenvironmentAnalyzeorganizationalgoalsCollectdataIdentifyproblemCategorizeproblemProgrammedandnon-programmedDecomposedintosmallerpartsAssessownershipandresponsibilityforproblemresolution37©2005PrenticeHall,DecisionSupportSystemsandIntelligentSystems,7thEdition,Turban,Aronson,andLiangDecision-MakingIntelligencePDecision-MakingDesignPhaseDevelopalternativecoursesofactionAnalyzepotentialsolutionsCreatemodelTestforfeasibilityValidateresultsSelectaprincipleofchoiceEstablishobjectivesIncorporateintomodelsRiskassessmentandacceptanceCriteriaandconstraints38©2005PrenticeHall,DecisionSupportSystemsandIntelligentSystems,7thEdition,Turban,Aronson,andLiangDecision-MakingDesignPhaseDeDecision-MakingChoicePhasePrincipleofchoiceDescribesacceptabilityofasolutionapproachNormativeModelsOptimizationEffectofeachalternativeRationalizationMoreofgoodthings,lessofbadthingsCoursesofactionareknownquantityOptionsrankedfrombesttoworseSuboptimizationDecisionsmadeinseparatepartsoforganizationwithoutconsiderationofwhole39©2005PrenticeHall,DecisionSupportSystemsandIntelligentSystems,7thEdition,Turban,Aronson,andLiangDecision-MakingChoicePhasePrDescriptiveModelsDescribehowthingsarebelievedtobeTypically,mathematicallybasedAppliessinglesetofalternativesExamples:SimulationsWhat-ifscenariosCognitivemapNarratives40©2005PrenticeHall,DecisionSupportSystemsandIntelligentSystems,7thEdition,Turban,Aronson,andLiangDescriptiveModelsDescribehowDevelopingAlternativesGenerationofalternativesMaybeautomaticormanualMaybelegion,leadingtoinformationoverloadScenariosEvaluatewithheuristicsOutcomemeasuredbygoalattainment41©2005PrenticeHall,DecisionSupportSystemsandIntelligentSystems,7thEdition,Turban,Aronson,andLiangDevelopingAlternativesGeneratProblemsSatisficingisthewillingnesstosettleforlessthanideal.FormofsuboptimizationBoundedrationalityLimitedhumancapacityLimitedbyindividualdifferencesandbiasesToomanychoices42©2005PrenticeHall,DecisionSupportSystemsandIntelligentSystems,7thEdition,Turban,Aronson,andLiangProblemsSatisficingisthewilDecision-MakingChoicePhaseDecisionmakingwithcommitmenttoactDeterminecoursesofactionAnalyticaltechniquesAlgorithmsHeuristicsBlindsearchesAnalyzeforrobustness43©2005PrenticeHall,DecisionSupportSystemsandIntelligentSystems,7thEdition,Turban,Aronson,andLiangDecision-MakingChoicePhaseDeDecision-MakingImplementationPhasePuttingsolutiontoworkVagueboundarieswhichinclude:DealingwithresistancetochangeUsertrainingUppermanagementsupport44©2005PrenticeHall,DecisionSupportSystemsandIntelligentSystems,7thEdition,Turban,Aronson,andLiangDecision-MakingImplementationSource:BasedonSprague,R.H.,Jr.,“AFrameworkfortheDevelopmentofDSS.”MISQuarterly,Dec.1980,Fig.5,p.13.45©2005PrenticeHall,DecisionSupportSystemsandIntelligentSystems,7thEdition,Turban,Aronson,andLiangSource:BasedonSprague,R.H.DecisionSupportSystemsIntelligencePhaseAutomaticDataMiningExpertsystems,CRM,neuralnetworksManualOLAPKMSReportingRoutineandadhoc46©2005PrenticeHall,DecisionSupportSystemsandIntelligentSystems,7thEdition,Turban,Aronson,andLiangDecisionSupportSystemsIntellDecisionSupportSystemsDesignPhaseFinancialandforecastingmodelsGenerationofalternativesbyexpertsyste