IMF-即时支付：各国的监管创新和支付替代（英）-2022.11-27正式版

InstantPayments:RegulatoryInnovationandPaymentSubstitutionAcrossCountriesTanaiKhiaonarongandDavidHumphreyWP/22/228IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.2022NOV©2022InternationalMonetaryFund WP/22/228IMFWorkingPaperMonetaryandCapitalMarketsDepartmentInstantPayments:RegulatoryInnovationandPaymentSubstitutionAcrossCountriesPreparedbyTanaiKhiaonarongandDavidHumphrey*AuthorizedfordistributionbyTommasoMancini-GriffoliNovember2022IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.ABSTRACT:Instant,orfast,paymentsarecredittransferscompletedandsettledwithinsecondsorminutes.Theyhavelowcosts,reducepaymentrisk,andhavesignificantlyreplacedtheuseofcash,cards,orcheckanddirectdebitpayments.Wenotetheroleplayedbyregulatorsinpromotinginstantpaymentsandidentifyinstancesofsignificantpaymentinstrumentsubstitutionacross12advancedandemergingmarketeconomies.Thissubstitutionreflectstherealizeddemandforattributesofferedbyinstantpayments.AstheseattributesarequitesimilartothoseforCBDC,thedemandforretailCBDC(ifissued)maybelesscompelling.JELClassificationNumbers:E41,E42,E58,E59Keywords:Instantpayments,paymentsubstitution,regulatoryinnovationAuthor’sE-MailAddress:tkhiaonarong@;dhumphrey@Wethankthefollowingcentralbankofficialswhohaveprovidedassistanceinobtainingpaymentstatisticsforthisstudy:RyanRizaldyandJacky,BankIndonesia;SharonSeahShingBey,BankNegaraMalaysia;OthónMartinoMorenoGonzález,BankofMexico;OrchumaPrachasaisoradej,BankofThailand.Forcommentsonthepaper,wethankItaiAgur,ParmaBains,ArvinderBharath,AlexisBoher,AquilesFarias,ArifIsmail,MinsukKim,HarryLeinonen,MarcoPani,RangacharyRavikumar,OzShy,ManmohanSingh,JeanneVerrier,HouWang,andKjetilWatne.EricaSandovalandTatianaLenshinaprovidededitorialassistance.WORKINGPAPERSInstantPayments:RegulatoryInnovationandPaymentSubstitutionAcrossCountriesPreparedbyTanaiKhiaonarongandDavidHumphreyIMFWORKINGPAPERS InstantPaymentsContents1.Introduction 32.ComparingInstantPaymentswithOtherPaymentInstruments 43.RegulatoryInnovationinPayments 64.ChangesinPaymentCompositionAcrossTwelveCountries 75.AMeasureofPaymentSubstitutionAcrossCountries 116.SubstitutionResults 157.Conclusions 18Appendix 20References 23FIGURES1.PaymentValuesinSelectedCountries 82.PaymentValuesinSelectedCountries(continued) 9TABLES1.ChangesinPaymentValuesandPaymentSharesOverTime 102.StatisticallySignificantPaymentSubstitutionOver2012-2020 163.StatisticallySignificantPaymentSubstitutionforTranslogModel(2005-2020). 20INTERNATIONALMONETARYFUND 2IMFWORKINGPAPERS InstantPayments1. IntroductionInstantpaymentshavebeensetinmotionbyregulatoryauthoritiesand/orcentralbanks,attimesworkingwiththeprivatesectororofferingthepaymentservicethemselves.Theoverallgoalistoreducecurrentdelaysandexpenseinmakingadomesticpaymenttransaction.Thisimprovesthecostefficiencyandoperatingeffectivenessofacountry'spaymentsystemwhileatthesametimereducingpaymentsystemrisk.Whilesome55countrieshaveimplementedinstantpaymentsbetween2001and2019andatleast10moreareprojectedtodoso(BechandHancock,2020),availabledataoninstantpaymentsandotherinstrumentsarelimited.Hartmann,etal.(2019)haveearlierinvestigatedtheuseofinstantpaymentsacrosssixcountries(fourofwhicharealsocoveredhere)andassessthefactorsdrivingtheiradoptionanduse.Thebenefitsofinstantpayment(IP)systemsandtheireffectonotherpaymentinstrumentsareillustratedbyexaminingaselectionoftwelvecountries--bothadvancedandemergingmarketeconomies,wheresufficientdataareavailable.WecoverAustralia,China,India,Indonesia,Malaysia,Mexico,Norway,Russia,Singapore,Sweden,Thailand,andUnitedKingdom.AdditionalbenefitsarepossibleifIPsystemsindifferentcountriescanbeconnectedsolowervalueinstantpaymentsbecomepossibleforcross-borderretailpayments,travel,andremittances.Sucharrangementsarecurrentlyinthetestingstageandactuallyofferedbetweensomecountries(BISIH,2021;BOT-MAS,2022).Thebenefitsofinstantpaymentsystemsareoutlinedrelativetotheuseofcash,cards,anddebitinstruments(checksanddirectdebits)inSection2.Thefactthatpaymenttransactionsarecompletedandsettled(viaacentralbank)insecondsorminutes,alongwiththeassociatedreductioninpaymentrisk,isanimportantreasonwhyregulatoryauthoritieshavebeeninvolvedinthedevelopmentofinstantpayments(CPMI,2016).InSection3,theroleoftheseauthoritiesincatalyzing,overseeing,oroperatinginstantpaymentsystemsisillustratedforthetwelvecountriesnotedabove.Section4illustratesthechangeinpaymentcompositionusingdomesticvaluesofdifferentpaymentinstrumentsineachcountryover2005-2020(16years).Whilethesefiguresshowhowvaluesofcertainpaymentinstrumentshaveexpandedwhileothershavefallen,itisdifficulttovisuallyholdotherthingsconstantinordertomoreaccuratelydeterminepaymentsubstitutionsandtheirstatisticalsignificance.Thisrequiresamoreformalanalysis.AnanalysisusinganeconometricmodelofpaymentsubstitutionisprovidedinSection5.Thisusesdataonpaymentsharesinorderto"normalize"thedifferencesinrelativepaymentvaluestofacilitatecross-countrycomparisons.Ourapproachissimilartopasteconometriceffortstoestimatetheelasticityofphysicalcapitalsubstitutionforlaborinproducingnationaloutput.Suchsubstitutionindicatesthedistributionofnationalincomebetweenthesetwofactorsofproduction.Similarly,estimatesofpaymentsubstitution,showninSection6,reflecttheunderlying,butunknown,distributionofpaymentcosts,revenues,andnon-monetarybenefitsthatdrivetheuseofdifferentpaymentinstrumentsatthenationallevel.ThisincludespurchasesofthemanyinputsinvolvedintheproductionofGDPaswellaspurchasesassociatedwiththedistributionofGDPtotheirvariousfinaldemands.Thedegreetowhichinstantpaymentshavebeenadoptedandsubstitutedforotherpaymentinstrumentsreflectstheextentthattheproductiveefficiencyofacountry'spaymentsystemhasimprovedbysupplying(usually)lowercostpaymentmethods.Italsoindicatestheextentthatriskinthepaymentsystemhasbeenreduced.Bothareimportantpaymentpolicyobjectives.OurconclusionsareinSection7andanAppendixcontainsadditionalinformationonpaymentsubstitutionandnotesthesourcesofourdata.INTERNATIONALMONETARYFUND3IMFWORKINGPAPERS InstantPaymentsComparingInstantPaymentswithOtherPaymentInstrumentsIndividualsandfirmsinourselectedcountrieshavefivemainwaystomakeapayment:physicalcash,debitandcreditcards(whichincludese-money),instantpayments(IP),theuseofgenerallyhighervaluecheckanddirectdebittransactions,andfinally,wiretransfers(largevaluecredittransfers).Intheempiricalanalysis,checkanddirectdebittransactionsaregroupedtogether(denotedasChecksDD)astheyarebothdebitstoanaccountandareusedforsimilartypesandvaluesofpayments.Historically,theUSandEuropeusedchecksandpapergiropaymentstoreplacecashwhiledirectdebits(viaautomatedclearinghouses)andelectronicgiropaymentsarebasicallyjusttheelectronicformofchecksandearlierpapergirotransactions.Largevaluewiretransfersappeartobefunctionallyseparablefromthefourotherpaymentinstrumentsandweexcludethemfromouranalysis.1Functionalseparabilityoflargevaluewiretransfersfromotherpaymentsallowsustofocusstatisticallyonthefourremainingpaymentinstrumentswheresubstitutionisoccurring.Dependingonhowinstantpaymentsareimplemented,theycansubstituteforanyoralloftheotherpaymentinstruments.Themaindifferencebetweeninstantpayments(IP)andcash,cards,ordebitpaymentinstruments(ChecksDD)isthattheyareinitiatedandsettled(usuallywithaconfirmationtobothparties)withinafewsecondsorminutesona24/7basis(CPMI,2016,Annex2).ThismeansthatreceiversofIPfundshavethemavailableforimmediatereusefornewout-paymentsthroughtheirbank.Theotherinstrumentsallhaveadelayoffrom1to3daysbeforepoint-of-saleincomeorrevenuesfromaccountsreceivablecanbereusedthroughtheirbank.Cashreceivedbymerchantsatthepoint-of-saleusuallyhastobedepositedatabankbeforeitisavailableforreuse.Thuscashisone-daytotwo-daymoney.Thepastpracticeofpayingcashwagestoworkerswasreplacedbycheck,ACH,andgiropaymentsinmostcountriesdecadesagowhich,inturn,isnowisbeingreplacedbycredittransferstodepositaccounts.Althoughchecksarestillpaperinstruments,theinformationonacheckinsomecountriescanbescannedandsentelectronicallyforcollectionandsettlementfornext-dayor,sometimes,two-dayfundsavailabilityafterbeingdepositedatabank.Whencheckswerephysicallycollected,transported,andpresentedforpayment,thepaymentdelaycouldbemuchlongerdependingonthesizeofthecountryandtheconcentrationofthebankingsystem.Thiswasaresultofcommerciallawsthatrequiredthephysicaltransportationoftheoriginalcheck(byplane,train,orvan)tothepayingbanktoverifythesignatureonthecheckpriortopayingit.Today,signatureverificationonlyoccursforhighvaluechecks.Accordingtoarecentanalysis(CPMI,2021,p.3),"thereislittleevidencehithertothatIPS[InstantPaymentSystems]are'cannibalising'RTGSsystemvolumesandvalues".Thisislikelyduetolimitscurrentlyplacedonthetransactionvalueofinstantpayments.INTERNATIONALMONETARYFUND4IMFWORKINGPAPERS InstantPaymentsInthepast,cardsgeneratedpaperslipsforeachtransaction.Theyweredepositedatabankandcollectedandprocessedinamannersimilartopaperchecksofthetime.Today,cardpaymentsareinitiatedwithdebitorcreditcardsswiped,insertedinto,ortappedonelectronicterminalsusedtotransmitpaymentinformationbetweentheuser'sandthemerchant'sbank.Theinterbanktransactionisthensettledthroughthecentralbank(orcommercialbank).Mobilephonescannowbeusedtoinitiatecard-basedpayments(aswellasinstantpayments).Evenso,merchantrevenuesreceivedfromcardtransactionsarenotcreditedtoamerchant'sbankaccountimmediatelybutmayincuradelayofuptothreedays.Instantpaymentsreducepaymentriskinseveralways.First,thesepaymentsarecredittransferswhichwillnotoccurunlessadequatefundsareavailableinadepositaccounttocoverthetransfer,althoughsomecountriesareconsideringmakingdebittransfers“instant”aswell.Also,settlementofinstantpaymentsbythecentralbankis(effectively)immediateandguaranteed.Thisreducesthetimegapbetweenwhenapaymentismadeandwhenitissettledbyatrustedintermediarywithadequateliquidity,reducingthelikelihoodofasettlementfailure.2Insomecountriesfinalsettlementofaninstantpaymentisatpresentdelayedtolaterinthedayvianetsettlement.Evenso,thereceivercanstillimmediatelyreusethefundsreceived.Whilesomeriskofsettlementfailureisretained,itiscontainedbyplacinglimitsonthevalueofcustomertransactions,cappingthenetvalueofpaymentsaninstitutioncanmakepriortosettlement,and/orbythepostingofliquidcollateralfordelayedsame-daynetsettlement(CPMI,2021).3Importantly,countrieshaveadjustedtheirbankruptcylaws,orpassednewlaws,sothatpaymentsmadeandreceivedcannotbeunwoundorreversedintheeventofthebankruptcyofthesendingpartyinapaymenttransaction.Tosummarize,themainbenefitsofinstantpaymentscomparedtootherpaymentinstrumentsinvolve:immediateuseoffundsversusdelayedavailability;typically,lowerpaymentcosts;noorlittlerestrictiononpaymentoperatinghours;andno,orminimumsettlementrisk.Instantpaymentscanalsofacilitatestraight-throughelectronicprocessingofbusinessaccountpayableandreceivableoperations.Thiscanfurtherreduceback-officebusinesspaymentexpenseswhenthepayment,andtheinternalaccountpayableandreceivableinvoiceinformation,arefullyelectronicbetweenpayorandpayee.4Evenso,privatesectorarrangementsexistthatarealmostasgoodwhereparticipatingbanksjointlycontributefundstohandleinstantorsame-daysettlementoutsideofthecentralbank(e.g.,theRealTimePaymentservicefromTheClearingHouseinNewYork).Inacountrywherekidnappingandforcingapersontotransferfundstoaseparateaccountunderduresshasoccurred,thisfraudriskwasreducedwhenaninstantpaymentservicewasturnedoffduringthenightand/ortransactionlimitsontheamountoffundsthatcouldbetransferredwerereduced.Whilesome/manylargefirmsalreadyhavestraight-throughprocessinginsomecountries,theavailabilityofinstantpaymentsmakesitpossibletoextendstraight-throughprocessingtootherfirmsaswell.INTERNATIONALMONETARYFUND5IMFWORKINGPAPERS InstantPayments3. RegulatoryInnovationinPaymentsThreedevelopmentshavemadeinstantpaymentspossible.Theseare:(1)ageneralloweringoftelecommunicationandcomputerprocessingcosts,whichincreasedthepenetrationrateoftheInternetandmobiledevices;(2)higherexpectationsfromusersforaccessible,low-cost,andaround-the-clockpaymentservices;and(3),regulatorychangesthatenable,andattimesdirectlypromote,effortstoreducedelaysincompletingpayments.Akeyfactorhasbeenthewillingnessofthecentralbanktoextendoperatinghourstoimproveliquiditymanagementandtoclearandsettleinterbanktransfersonareal-time,24/7basis(CMPI,2022).Whileinsomecountriessame-daydeferrednetsettlementwasoriginallyusedinsteadofRTGS,withappropriatesafeguardstoensuredelayedsettlement,manyhavesinceimplementedreal-timesettlement.Centralbankandrelevantregulatoryauthoritieshaveplayeddifferentrolesintheimplementationofinstantpaymentsystems—ascatalyst,overseer,andoperator.5Asacatalyst,itiscommoninmanycountriesforauthoritiestobeatthecenterinmodernizingnationalpaymentsystems(CPSS,2006).Thiscantaketheformofcentralbankssettingnationalstrategies,suchaspaymentroadmaps(India,Indonesia,Singapore,andThailand),toinvolvingthefinanceministryandthecompetitionauthorityinthereviewofpaymentcompetition,innovation,andefficiency(UK).ThestrategicdirectionfordevelopinginstantpaymentsinAustraliawassetbytheReserveBankofAustralia’s(RBA)PaymentSystemsBoardwhichhasamandaterelatingtoefficiencyandcompetitioninthepaymentssystem.Thecatalystrolecanalsoinvolvecoordinatinglinkagesbetweenprivately-operatedinstantpaymentsystemstofacilitatecross-borderpaymentsbetweencountries(Indonesia,Malaysia,Singapore,andThailand).ApartfromIP,centralbankshavestimulatedpaymentsinnovationwiththeestablishmentofregulatorysandboxestoassessnewfinancialtechnologies,experimentwithdistributedledgertechnologyinpaymentsandsettlements,andpilottestCBDC.Asoverseer,orpaymentsystemregulator,authoritieshavesoughttostimulateinnovationindownstreampaymentapplicationsbyaccommodatingordirectlyprovidinginstantpaymentswhichservesasthebasisfornewpaymentapplicationsbybanksandfintechfirms,whilealsoreducingpaymentrisk.Thismayalsoinvolvehavingdifferentialtransactionlimitsonexistinglargevaluewiretransfer(credittransfer)systemstoaccommodateinstantpaymentsandshorteningthesettlementcyclesonexistingreal-timegrosssettlementsystems(India).Anotherpossibilityissettingrequirementsforallstandingorderstobesettledwithinadayofsubmission(UK).Finally,theroleofthecentralbankasanoperatorvariesfrom(1)beinglimitedtojustprovidingreal-timesettlement(andaccesstoanintradayliquidityfacility),to(2)beingactiveinthegovernanceofthefirmprovidingtheinstantpaymentservice,to(3)owningandrunningtheinstantpaymentservicethemselves.ThefirstcaseappliestoNorway,Thailand,andtheUK.Forothercountries,inadditiontoprovidingreal-timesettlement,centralbanksarealsoinvolvedinthegovernanceofinstantpaymentsystemsthroughshareholdingsandasarepresentativeontheboardofdirectorswithsomesaytoday-to-dayoperationalandotherissues.ThisappliestoAustralia,India(forIMPSandUPI),andMalaysia.ForAustralia,theRBAwasinvolvedingovernancearrangementsinitiallywhentheinstantpaymentsystemwasfirstestablishedandnolongerheldsharesorappointeddirectorsontheboardfollowingamerger.Inthethirdcase,thecentralbankitselfownstheinstantpaymentserviceprovidedtousersandhasfulloperationalcontroloverallaspectsofthisservice.ThisappliestoChina,Indonesia,Mexico.Insum,theroleofcentralbanksinretailpaymentsystemshasinsomecountriesSeeCPMI(2021)fordetailedsurveyresultsof31instantpaymentsystemsacrossCPMImemberjurisdictions,whichincludesexamplesoncentralbankoperationalroles.INTERNATIONALMONETARYFUND6IMFWORKINGPAPERS InstantPaymentsexpandedtodomuchmorethanjustprovidefinalsettlement.Somehavesoughttomoredirectlylowerpaymentcosts,reducepaymentrisks,andlikelystimulateinnovative"add-on"paymentservicesbytheprivatesector,inadditiontoprovidingatimelier24/7settlementservice.ChangesinPaymentCompositionAcrossTwelveCountriesFigures1and2showchangesinpaymentcompositionforourtwelvecountries.AsshowninSection4,sevencountriesexperiencedstatisticallysignificantpaymentsubstitutionofinstantpaymentsforcash,forcards,orforchecks.ThisincludesChina,Indonesia,Mexico,Norway,Russia,Singapore,andtheUK.Countriesexperiencingsignificantsubstitutionofadifferenttype--cardsreplacingcashorchecks,orchecksreplacingcash,arealsoshown.Inthefigures,directdebits(DD)areseparatedfromchecks.Table1presentsanoverviewofwhatthefiguresindicateregardingtheuseofcashandpaymentsubstitution.Forthisanalysis,thetwodebitinstruments--checksanddirectdebits--arecombined(ChecksDD).6Inthetable,countriesarerankedbytheiraverageannualcompoundgrowthrateofthevalueofcashwithdrawnfromATMs--ourmeasureofcashuse(Column1).7Eightcountrieshaveseencashuseriseover2005-2020whileonlyfourfindthatcashuseisonaverageconstantorfallingbetween2005and2020.8Lookingmoreclosely,however,itisevidentthatcashuseovertheperiodoftenhassomethingofaninverted"U-shape",firstrisingand,towardtheend,falling.Thisisshownbythenegativeannualgrowthrateofcashoverthelastthreeyearsofthesample(Column2).Onlytwocountries(RussiaandIndonesia)showapositiveannualaveragegrowthrateincashoverthismorerecenttimeperiod.Lookingatthepercentagepointchangeintheshareofcashintotalpayments,the(relative)reductionincashuse(Column3)ismorepronouncedthanitsabsolutereductioninvalue(Column1).Hereeightcountriesshowareductionornochangeintheuseofcashcomparedtofour(India,Mexico,Malaysia,andSingapore)showingariseintheircashshare.However,withoneexception(Mexico),theshareofcashinthelastthreeyearsofthesampleareuniformlynegative(Column4),mirroringthelastthreeyearsresultforpaymentvalues.Thedifferencebetweenchangesintheabsolutevalueofcashuseandtheuseofcashrelativetootherpaymentinstrumentsisbecausetherearetwowaystheshareofcashcanfall.Thefirstisthatcashfallsabsolutely(Column1).Thesecondisthatotherinstrumentsaredisplacingcashbygrowingfaster(Column3).Inbothcases,theresultisthattheuseofcashisfalling.Theonlyrealdifferencebetweenthemisthatdirectdebitsareinitiated,processed,andcollectedelectronicallywhilepaperchecksaremanuallyinitiatedbutcanbeprocessedandcollectedelectronically.Bothinstrumentsarenotinstantandareriskytoacceptforpayment.Ifthereareinsufficientfundstocovereithertypeofdebit,theycanberejected.Otherwaysofobtainingcashdoexistbutarealmostneverpubliclyreported.Thisincludescash-backatthepoint-of-saleorobtainingcashover-the-counter(OTC)atabankingoffice.OTCwithdrawals,whenreported,includeconsumerandbusinesswithdrawalstogetherbutonlyconsumerwithdrawalsarerelevant.Businesswithdrawalsareusedformakingchange,notpurchases.Includingbusinesswithdrawalswouldbeinconsistentwithotherpaymentinstruments--especiallycards,astrongcompetitortocash,whichhasnoneedtomakechange.JapanandKoreawereexcludedfromouranalysis.Theirpaymentdataonlowervalueretailinstantpayments(thatareoftensubjecttolimitsonthevalueofatransactioninothercountries)arecomingledwithlargevalueinstantpayments(likewiretransfers)andthusarenotcomparabletodataforcountrieswecover.Argentinawasalsoexcludedasthedataavailablewasinsufficient.INTERNATIONALMONETARYFUND7IMFWORKINGPAPERS InstantPaymentsFigure1.PaymentValuesinSelectedCountriesAUDbillions

Australia7,000CASHCARDSIPDDCHECKS6,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,000-2005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020

CNYbillions

China350,000CASHCARDSIPDDCHECKS300,000250,000200,000150,000100,00050,000-200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020India140,000CASHCARDSIPDDCHECKS120,000billions100,00080,000INR60,00040,00020,000-2005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020Malaysia2,500CASHCARDSIPDDCHECKS2,000RMbillions1,5001,000500-2005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020Source:BIS,NationalCentralBanks,UKFPS

Indonesia4,000,000CASHCARDSIPDDCHECKS3,500,0003,000,000billions2,500,0002,000,000IDR1,500,0001,000,000500,000-200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020Mexico12,000CASHCARDIPDDCHECKS10,000billions8,0006,000MXN4,0002,000-2005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020INTERNATIONALMONETARYFUND8IMFWORKINGPAPERS InstantPaymentsFigure2.PaymentValuesinSelectedCountries(continued)NOKbillions

Norway1,200CASHCARDS IP DDCHECKS1,000800600400200-2005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020

RUBbillions

Russia90,000CASHCARDSIPDDCHECKS80,00070,00060,00050,00040,00030,00020,00010,000-2005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020Singapore800CASHCARDIPDDCHECKS700600billions500400SGD300200100-2005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020Thailand70,000CASHCARDSIPDDCHECKS60,000billions50,00040,000THB30,00020,00010,000-2005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020Source:BIS,NationalCentralBanks,UKFPS

Sweden1,200CASHCARDSIPDDCHECKS1,000800billions600SEK400200-2005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020UnitedKingdom2,500CASHCARDSIPDDCHECKS2,000GBPbillions1,5001,000500-2005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020INTERNATIONALMONETARYFUND9IMFWORKINGPAPERS InstantPaymentsTable1.ChangesinPaymentValuesandPaymentSharesOverTimeCashPaymentValuesAllPaymentShares%Change2005-20%PointChange2005-20LastLastAnnual3-YrsCash3-YrsCardsIPChecksDD(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)India20%-6%15-4736-58Russia192-38-85314-30China14-202-32240-65Indonesia133-30-8-748-11Mexico801921910-48Malaysia8-47-2631-44Thailand4-9-3-2126-24Australia1-100-1911-19Singapore0-135-1524-34UK-3-20-3-1847-52Norway-7-22-11-268-3Sweden-8-12-20-1715-2TableNotes:Dataarerounded.ChecksDDrepresentschecksanddirectdebitstogether.Thetimeperiodcoveredwas2005-2020forallcountriesexceptChina(2006-20)andIndonesia(2009-20).Todate,thestandardwayofassessingcashusehasbeentocomputetheratioofcashincirculation(CIC)toGDP.Ifthisratiofalls,aswhenCICisreducedabsolutelyorwhenGDPgrowsfasterthanCIC,theconclusionisthatcashuseisfalling.Ourfocusonpercentagepointchangesincashandotherpaymentsharesintheempiricalsectionbelowusesasimilarrelativemeasure(paymentshares)toassesstheuseandsubstitutionofdifferentpaymentinstruments.9Thepercentagepointchangesincash,cards,instantpayments,andchecksanddirectdebits(ChecksDD),indicatethattheoverallchangeinpaymentcompositionhasinvolvedalargeriseintheshareofinstantpayments(Column6)andasmallerexpansioninthecurrentshareofcards(Column5),versusalargereductionintheshareofdebitinstruments(Column7)andasmallerreductionintheshareofcash(Column3).Thissuggeststhatcardsandinstantpaymentshavelikelysubstitutedforbothdebitinstrumentsandcashovertheperiod.Topindownwhichpaymentinstrumentsmaybesubstitutingforothers,amoreformalanalysisoftheapparentnegativecovariationamonganytwoinstrumentsisneeded.Thisisnecessarytoholdconstantothercovariationsamongtheinstruments.Visualassessmentsofthedegreeofpaymentsubstitutionamongpaymentinstrumentsaresuggestivebutneedconfirmation.Reductionsincashuseshownusingpaymentshares(Column3)aremorecommonthanwhentheratioofCICtoGDP,oraless-usedratioofthevalueofsmalldenominationcurrencyandcointoGDPorhouseholdconsumption,areused(c.f.,KhiaonarongandHumphrey,2022).INTERNATION