财务分析与证券定价（英文）课件

Chapter11TheAnalysisofProfitabilityChapter111LinksLinks2WhatyouwilllearnfromthischapterHowreturnoncommonequity(ROCE)isbrokendownintoitsdriversHowfinancialleverageaffectsshareholderprofitabilityHowoperatingliabilityleverageaffectstheprofitabilityofoperationsThedifferencebetweenReturnonNetOperatingAssets(RNOA)andReturnonAssets(ROA)HowprofitmarginsandassetturnoversdriveRNOAHowborrowingcostsareanalyzedHowprofitabilityanalysisisusedtoask“whatif”questionsinsensitivityanalysisWhatyouwilllearnfromthis3TheFocus:

Accounting-BasedValuationThetaskistodeterminepremiumsoverbookvalue(orequivalently,theP/Bratio)WhatwillfutureROCEbe?Whatwillbethegrowthinthefuture?Pointofdeparture:CurrentROCEandgrowthHowwillfutureROCEandgrowthbedifferentfromcurrentROCE? Thischapteranalyzescurrentprofitability ThenextchapteranalyzesgrowthTheFocus:

Accounting-BasedV4ForecastingandtheAnalysisofCurrentProfitabilityEstablishthepresent:Analysisofprofitability(inthischapter) Determinethecurrentprofitability(ROCE)andthefactorsthatinfluencetheprofitabilityDeterminetransitionfrompresenttofuture:Projectingfutureprofitability

(inPartIII) Determinefactorsthatinfluencefutureprofitabilityanddescribehowthefuturewillbedifferentfromthepresent

Thesecorrespondtosteps2and3offundamentalanalysis Thereformulationofthebalancesheetandincomestatementhasputthemintoaformtocarryoutstep2andtousethemtoforecastthefutureinstep3ForecastingandtheAnalysiso5CuttingtotheCore:

ROCEDriversROCEisdecomposedintodriversoverthreelevelsofanalysis:EffectsofLeverageAnalysisofOperatingProfitabilityAnalysisofNetBorrowingCostsCuttingtotheCore:

ROCEDri6Duetoformattingrestrictions,pleasemanuallyreplacethispagewithhardcopyofslidefromfile:

<AnalysisofProfitability(slidechart)>[windowsname]

analys~1.ppt

[dosname]

Duetoformattingrestrictions7First-LevelBreakdown:AnalysisofEffectsofFinancialLeverage(FLEV)So,ROCEisaweightedreturntooperatingactivitiesandfinancingactivities:or,RNOA =OI(Aftertax)/NOA (ReturnonNetOperatingAssets)FLEV =NFO/CSE (FinancialLeverage)NBC =NFE(aftertax)/NFO (NetBorrowingCost)SPREAD =RNOA–NBC (OperatingSpread)SpreadFirst-LevelBreakdown:Analysi8HowFinancialLeverageExplainstheDifferenceBetweenROCEandRNOAHowFinancialLeverageExplain9FinancialLeverage:

GeneralMills,Inc.

GeneralMills,alargemanufacturerofpackagedfoods,hashadconsiderablestockrepurchasesovertheyears.Attheendoffiscal1998commonshareholderequitywasonly$190.2milliononnetoperatingassetsof$2.251billion.Itsfinancialleveragewasahuge5.745,basedonaveragebalancesheetamounts.

Thefirm’sROCEfor1998was121.6%.Furtheranalysisrevealsthatthisveryhighnumberisdrivenbythehighleverage:

ROCE=RNOA+[FLEVx(RNOA

NBC)]

121.6%=21.6%+[5.745x(21.6%

4.2%)]

ROCEcanexaggerateunderlyingoperationalprofitability:RNOAis21.6%butthehighfinancialleverage,combinedwithaSPREADoveraborrowingcostof4.2%,yieldsamuchhigherROCE.BewareoffirmsboastinghighROCE:isitdrivenbyfinancialleverage?

AWhat-IfQuestion:WhatiftheRNOAatGeneralMillsfellto3%?WhatwouldbetheeffectonROCE?

TheansweristhattheROCEwouldfallto-3.9%:

-3.9%=3.0%+[5.745x(3.0%

4.2%)]

TheunfavorableleveragewouldproduceanegativeROCEonapositiveRNOA.

FinancialLeverage:

GeneralMi10MicrosoftCorphasbeenveryprofitable.Forfiscal1998thefirmreportedanROCEof36.3%onaveragecommonequityof$13.702billion.ButMicrosofthadnofinancingdebtotherthan$980millionofconvertiblepreferredstock.Andithadconsiderablefinancialassetsof$11.447billionfromcashgeneratedfromitsoperations.Thereturnonaveragenetfinancialassetswas8.0%(asignificantportionfromunrealizedgainsonfinancialassets).

ThereportedROCEmaskstheprofitabilityofoperations:TheRNOAof179.4%isweighteddownbyreturnonfinancingactivitiesintheoverallROCE.

AWhat-IfQuestion:Microsofthasregularstockrepurchases.Infiscal1998thecompanyused$2.796billionofitsfinancialassetstorepurchasestock.WhatwouldtheROCEhavebeenhaditnotundertakenthestockrepurchase?

Theanswer:

With$2.796billionmoreinaveragefinancialassetsandcommonequity,theNFAtoCSEratiowouldhavebeen0.863ratherthan0.835,andtheROCEwouldhavebeen:

31.5%=179.4%

[0.863x(179.4%8.0%)]

Stockrepurchases(anddividends)increaseROCE.

FinancialLeverage:

Microsoft,Corp.MicrosoftCorphasbeenv11TheEffectsofOperatingLiabilityLeverage(OLLEV) OperatingliabilitieslevertheReturnonNetOperatingAssets Whatwouldbetheoperatingprofitabilitywithoutoperatingliabilities? where

ImplicitInterestonOperatingLiabilities

=Short-termBorrowingRatexOperatingLiabilities TheEffectofOLLEV:

whereRNOA=ROOA+(OLLEVxOLSPREAD)

TheEffectsofOperatingLiabi12OperatingLiabilityLeverage:GeneralMills,Inc.

GeneralMillshadaveragenetoperatingassetsof$2.310billionduringfiscal1998ofwhich$1.159billionwereinoperatingliabilitiesotherthandeferredtaxesandpensionliabilities.Thusitsoperatingliabilityleverageratiowas0.50.Itsborrowingrateonitsshort-termnotespayablewas5.4%,or3.4%aftertax.Itreportedoperatingincomeof$499.6million,butapplyingtheafter-taxshort-termborrowingratetooperatingliabilitiesotherthandeferredtaxandpensionliabilities,thisoperatingincomeincludesimplicitafter-taxinterestchargesof$39.4million.So,

Theeffectofoperatingliabilityleverageisfavorable:

AWhat-IfQuestion:What-ifsuppliersweretochargetheshort-termborrowingrateof5.4%explicitlyforthecreditinaccountspayable.WhatwouldbetheeffectonROCE?

Theanswer:Probablynoeffect.Theinterestwouldbeanadditionalexpense.But,tostaycompetitive,thesupplierwouldhavetoreducepricesofgoodssoldtothefirmbyacorrespondingamountsothatthetotalpricecharged(inimplicitplusexplicitinterest)remainsthesame.Butsuppliermarketsmaynotworkasefficientlyasthissupposes,sofirmscanexploitoperatingliabilityleverage.

OperatingLiabilityLeverage:13ReturnonNetOperatingAssetsandReturnonAssetsProblemswithROA:FinancialassetsindenominatorFinancialincomeinnumeratorOperatingliabilitiesnotindenominatorNetincomeisnotcomprehensiveincomeMedianROAis7.0%MedianRNOAis10.3%ReturnonNetOperatingAssets14RNOAandROAforSelectedFirms,1996RNOAandROAforSelectedFirm15FLEVandDebt-to-EquityRatiosProblemswithDebt-to-Equityratio:Excludesfinancialassets(whicheffectivelydefeasedebt)IncludesoperatingliabilitiesMedianDebt-to-Equityis1.17MedianFLEVis0.40FLEVandDebt-to-EquityRatios16ReformulatedFinancialStatements:Nike,Inc.ReformulatedStatementsofCommonStockholders’EquityReformulatedFinancialStateme17Nike,Inc.1Cashandcashequivalentsaresplitbetweenoperatingcashandcashinvestments.2Someaccountspayableareinterestbearingbutthiscannotbediscovered.3Otherliabilitiesareprimarilylong-termdeferredendorsementpaymentsforpromotions.4Notespayableareinterestbearing.5Preferredstockislessthan$0.5million.

ReformulatedBalanceSheets

Nike,Inc.1Cashandcashequi18Nike,Inc.1Brokenoutfromsellingandadministrativeexpensesinpublishedincomestatement.2Includedin“otherexpense”inincomestatement.Thenonrecurringchangesin1995and1994relatetoshutdownofcertainfacilities.3Marginaltaxratewas38.5%,38.5%and39.1%in1996,1995and1994,respectively.

ReformulatedIncomeStatements

Nike,Inc.1Brokenoutfromse19ReformulatedFinancialStatements:

ReebokInternational,Ltd.ReformulatedStatementsofCommonStockholders’Equity

ReformulatedFinancialStateme20ReebokInternational,Ltd.1Cashandcashequivalentsdividedbetweenoperatingcashandcashinvestments.2Excludesdividendspayablewhichisincludedinstockholders’equity.

ReformulatedBalanceSheets

ReebokInternational,Ltd.1Ca21ReebokInternational,Ltd.1Brokenoutfromsellingandadministrativeexpensesinpublishedincomestatement.2Thechangein1995isduetoconsolidationandstreamliningoffacilitiesandtothesaleoftheAviasubsidiary.3Marginaltaxratewas35.4%,36.2%and36.9%for1996,1995and1994,respectively.

ReformulatedIncomeStatements

ReebokInternational,Ltd.1Br22FirstLevelBreakdownofROCE:Nike,Inc.andReebokInt’l,Ltd.FirstLevelBreakdownofROCE:23Operatingprofitmargin:TheprofitabilityofeachdollarofsalesAssetturnover:TheabilitytogeneratesalesforagivenassetbaseEffectoffinancialleverageSecond-LevelBreakdownofROCE:

DriversofOperatingProfitabilitySecond-LevelBreakdownofROCE24ProfitMarginandAssetTurnoverCombinationsfor238Industries,1963-96

1 2 3 4 5 67AssetTurnoverProfitMarginandAssetTurnov25TypicalLevelsforROCE,FLEV,OLLEV,RNOA,PMandATOSource:Standard&Poor’sCOMPUSTAT®

TypicalLevelsforROCE,FLEV,26Third-LevelBreakdownofROCE:ProfitMarginDrivers PM=SalesPM+OtheroperatingincomePMbyproduct

orlineofbusinessbenefit

orexpense?GM=Sales–CostofSalesThird-LevelBreakdownofROCE:27Third-LevelBreakdownofROCE:AssetTurnoverDriversSometimesothermeasuresareused:DaysinAcc.Receivable=Acc.Receivable/Avg.SalesperdayInventoryTurnover=CostofSales/Avg.InventoriesAcc.PayableTurnover=Purchases/Avg.Acc.PayableThird-LevelBreakdownofROCE:28Third-LevelBreakdown:

Nike,Inc.andReebokInt’l,Ltd.Third-LevelBreakdown:

Nike,29What-IfQuestions:

Nike,Inc.andReebokInt’l,LtdWhat-IfQuestions:

Nike,Inc.30Third-LevelBreakdown:AnalysisofNetBorrowingCostThird-LevelBreakdown:Analysi31AnalysisofNetBorrowingCost:Nike,Inc.AnalysisofNetBorrowingCost32TheAnalyst’sChecklistYoushouldbeabletodothefollowingafterreadingthischapter:CalculateratiosthatdriveROCEDemonstratehowratioscombinetoyieldtheROCEPerformacompleteprofitabilityanalysisonreformulatedfinancialstatementsPrepareaspreadsheetprogrambasedonthedesigninthischapterAnswer“What-If”questionsaboutafirmusingtheanalysisinthischapter

Youshouldunderstandthefollowingfromthischapter:HowratiosaggregatetoexplainReturnonCommonEquity(ROCE)HoweconomicfactorsdetermineratiosHowfinancialleverageaffectsROCEHowoperatingliabilityleverageaffectsROCEThedifferencebetweenReturnonNetOperatingAssets(RNOA)andReturnonAssets(ROA)Howprofitmargins,assetturnoversandtheircompositeratiosdriveRNOAHowborrowingcostsareanalyzedHowprofitabilityanalysiscanbeusedtoaskpenetratingquestionsregardingthefirm’sactivitiesTheAnalyst’sChecklistYousho33Chapter11TheAnalysisofProfitabilityChapter1134LinksLinks35WhatyouwilllearnfromthischapterHowreturnoncommonequity(ROCE)isbrokendownintoitsdriversHowfinancialleverageaffectsshareholderprofitabilityHowoperatingliabilityleverageaffectstheprofitabilityofoperationsThedifferencebetweenReturnonNetOperatingAssets(RNOA)andReturnonAssets(ROA)HowprofitmarginsandassetturnoversdriveRNOAHowborrowingcostsareanalyzedHowprofitabilityanalysisisusedtoask“whatif”questionsinsensitivityanalysisWhatyouwilllearnfromthis36TheFocus:

Accounting-BasedValuationThetaskistodeterminepremiumsoverbookvalue(orequivalently,theP/Bratio)WhatwillfutureROCEbe?Whatwillbethegrowthinthefuture?Pointofdeparture:CurrentROCEandgrowthHowwillfutureROCEandgrowthbedifferentfromcurrentROCE? Thischapteranalyzescurrentprofitability ThenextchapteranalyzesgrowthTheFocus:

Accounting-BasedV37ForecastingandtheAnalysisofCurrentProfitabilityEstablishthepresent:Analysisofprofitability(inthischapter) Determinethecurrentprofitability(ROCE)andthefactorsthatinfluencetheprofitabilityDeterminetransitionfrompresenttofuture:Projectingfutureprofitability

(inPartIII) Determinefactorsthatinfluencefutureprofitabilityanddescribehowthefuturewillbedifferentfromthepresent

Thesecorrespondtosteps2and3offundamentalanalysis Thereformulationofthebalancesheetandincomestatementhasputthemintoaformtocarryoutstep2andtousethemtoforecastthefutureinstep3ForecastingandtheAnalysiso38CuttingtotheCore:

ROCEDriversROCEisdecomposedintodriversoverthreelevelsofanalysis:EffectsofLeverageAnalysisofOperatingProfitabilityAnalysisofNetBorrowingCostsCuttingtotheCore:

ROCEDri39Duetoformattingrestrictions,pleasemanuallyreplacethispagewithhardcopyofslidefromfile:

<AnalysisofProfitability(slidechart)>[windowsname]

analys~1.ppt

[dosname]

Duetoformattingrestrictions40First-LevelBreakdown:AnalysisofEffectsofFinancialLeverage(FLEV)So,ROCEisaweightedreturntooperatingactivitiesandfinancingactivities:or,RNOA =OI(Aftertax)/NOA (ReturnonNetOperatingAssets)FLEV =NFO/CSE (FinancialLeverage)NBC =NFE(aftertax)/NFO (NetBorrowingCost)SPREAD =RNOA–NBC (OperatingSpread)SpreadFirst-LevelBreakdown:Analysi41HowFinancialLeverageExplainstheDifferenceBetweenROCEandRNOAHowFinancialLeverageExplain42FinancialLeverage:

GeneralMills,Inc.

GeneralMills,alargemanufacturerofpackagedfoods,hashadconsiderablestockrepurchasesovertheyears.Attheendoffiscal1998commonshareholderequitywasonly$190.2milliononnetoperatingassetsof$2.251billion.Itsfinancialleveragewasahuge5.745,basedonaveragebalancesheetamounts.

Thefirm’sROCEfor1998was121.6%.Furtheranalysisrevealsthatthisveryhighnumberisdrivenbythehighleverage:

ROCE=RNOA+[FLEVx(RNOA

NBC)]

121.6%=21.6%+[5.745x(21.6%

4.2%)]

ROCEcanexaggerateunderlyingoperationalprofitability:RNOAis21.6%butthehighfinancialleverage,combinedwithaSPREADoveraborrowingcostof4.2%,yieldsamuchhigherROCE.BewareoffirmsboastinghighROCE:isitdrivenbyfinancialleverage?

AWhat-IfQuestion:WhatiftheRNOAatGeneralMillsfellto3%?WhatwouldbetheeffectonROCE?

TheansweristhattheROCEwouldfallto-3.9%:

-3.9%=3.0%+[5.745x(3.0%

4.2%)]

TheunfavorableleveragewouldproduceanegativeROCEonapositiveRNOA.

FinancialLeverage:

GeneralMi43MicrosoftCorphasbeenveryprofitable.Forfiscal1998thefirmreportedanROCEof36.3%onaveragecommonequityof$13.702billion.ButMicrosofthadnofinancingdebtotherthan$980millionofconvertiblepreferredstock.Andithadconsiderablefinancialassetsof$11.447billionfromcashgeneratedfromitsoperations.Thereturnonaveragenetfinancialassetswas8.0%(asignificantportionfromunrealizedgainsonfinancialassets).

ThereportedROCEmaskstheprofitabilityofoperations:TheRNOAof179.4%isweighteddownbyreturnonfinancingactivitiesintheoverallROCE.

AWhat-IfQuestion:Microsofthasregularstockrepurchases.Infiscal1998thecompanyused$2.796billionofitsfinancialassetstorepurchasestock.WhatwouldtheROCEhavebeenhaditnotundertakenthestockrepurchase?

Theanswer:

With$2.796billionmoreinaveragefinancialassetsandcommonequity,theNFAtoCSEratiowouldhavebeen0.863ratherthan0.835,andtheROCEwouldhavebeen:

31.5%=179.4%

[0.863x(179.4%8.0%)]

Stockrepurchases(anddividends)increaseROCE.

FinancialLeverage:

Microsoft,Corp.MicrosoftCorphasbeenv44TheEffectsofOperatingLiabilityLeverage(OLLEV) OperatingliabilitieslevertheReturnonNetOperatingAssets Whatwouldbetheoperatingprofitabilitywithoutoperatingliabilities? where

ImplicitInterestonOperatingLiabilities

=Short-termBorrowingRatexOperatingLiabilities TheEffectofOLLEV:

whereRNOA=ROOA+(OLLEVxOLSPREAD)

TheEffectsofOperatingLiabi45OperatingLiabilityLeverage:GeneralMills,Inc.

GeneralMillshadaveragenetoperatingassetsof$2.310billionduringfiscal1998ofwhich$1.159billionwereinoperatingliabilitiesotherthandeferredtaxesandpensionliabilities.Thusitsoperatingliabilityleverageratiowas0.50.Itsborrowingrateonitsshort-termnotespayablewas5.4%,or3.4%aftertax.Itreportedoperatingincomeof$499.6million,butapplyingtheafter-taxshort-termborrowingratetooperatingliabilitiesotherthandeferredtaxandpensionliabilities,thisoperatingincomeincludesimplicitafter-taxinterestchargesof$39.4million.So,

Theeffectofoperatingliabilityleverageisfavorable:

AWhat-IfQuestion:What-ifsuppliersweretochargetheshort-termborrowingrateof5.4%explicitlyforthecreditinaccountspayable.WhatwouldbetheeffectonROCE?

Theanswer:Probablynoeffect.Theinterestwouldbeanadditionalexpense.But,tostaycompetitive,thesupplierwouldhavetoreducepricesofgoodssoldtothefirmbyacorrespondingamountsothatthetotalpricecharged(inimplicitplusexplicitinterest)remainsthesame.Butsuppliermarketsmaynotworkasefficientlyasthissupposes,sofirmscanexploitoperatingliabilityleverage.

OperatingLiabilityLeverage:46ReturnonNetOperatingAssetsandReturnonAssetsProblemswithROA:FinancialassetsindenominatorFinancialincomeinnumeratorOperatingliabilitiesnotindenominatorNetincomeisnotcomprehensiveincomeMedianROAis7.0%MedianRNOAis10.3%ReturnonNetOperatingAssets47RNOAandROAforSelectedFirms,1996RNOAandROAforSelectedFirm48FLEVandDebt-to-EquityRatiosProblemswithDebt-to-Equityratio:Excludesfinancialassets(whicheffectivelydefeasedebt)IncludesoperatingliabilitiesMedianDebt-to-Equityis1.17MedianFLEVis0.40FLEVandDebt-to-EquityRatios49ReformulatedFinancialStatements:Nike,Inc.ReformulatedStatementsofCommonStockholders’EquityReformulatedFinancialStateme50Nike,Inc.1Cashandcashequivalentsaresplitbetweenoperatingcashandcashinvestments.2Someaccountspayableareinterestbearingbutthiscannotbediscovered.3Otherliabilitiesareprimarilylong-termdeferredendorsementpaymentsforpromotions.4Notespayableareinterestbearing.5Preferredstockislessthan$0.5million.

ReformulatedBalanceSheets

Nike,Inc.1Cashandcashequi51Nike,Inc.1Brokenoutfromsellingandadministrativeexpensesinpublishedincomestatement.2Includedin“otherexpense”inincomestatement.Thenonrecurringchangesin1995and1994relatetoshutdownofcertainfacilities.3Marginaltaxratewas38.5%,38.5%and39.1%in1996,1995and1994,respectively.

ReformulatedIncomeStatements

Nike,Inc.1Brokenoutfromse52ReformulatedFinancialStatements:

ReebokInternational,Ltd.ReformulatedStatementsofCommonStockholders’Equity

ReformulatedFinancialStateme53ReebokInternational,Ltd.1Cashandcashequivalentsdividedbetweenoperatingcashandcashinvestments.2Excludesdividendspayablewhichisincludedinstockholders’equity.

ReformulatedBalanceSheets

ReebokInternational,Ltd.1Ca54ReebokInternational,Ltd.1Brokenoutfromsellingandadministrativeexpensesinpublishedincomestatement.2Thechangein1995isduetoconsolidationandstreamliningoffacilitiesandtothesaleoftheAviasubsidiary.3Marginaltaxratewas35.4%,36.2%and36.9%for1996,1995and1994,respectively.

ReformulatedIncomeStatements

ReebokInternational,Ltd.1Br55FirstLevelBreakdownofROCE:Nike,Inc.andReebokInt’l,Ltd.FirstLevelBreakdownofROCE:56Operatingprofitmargin:Theprofitabilityofeachdollar