布鲁金斯学会-为脆弱国家和发展中国家恢复全球气候变化行动（英）-2022.11-31正式版

NOVEMBER2022WORKINGPAPER#179RENEWINGGLOBALCLIMATECHANGEACTIONFORFRAGILEANDDEVELOPINGCOUNTRIESLandrySignéAhmadouAlyMbayeRenewingglobalclimatechangeactionforfragileanddevelopingcountriesNOVEMBER2022WorkingPaper#179AboutGlobalEconomy&DevelopmentFoundedin2006,theGlobalEconomyandDevelopmentprogramattheBrookingsInstitutionaimstoplayitsparttoensurethatthefutureofglobalizationisoneofinclusivegrowthandsharedprosperity.Withaninterdisciplinaryteamofexperts,Globalprovidesthought-leadership,cuttingedgeresearch,andinnovativepolicysolutionstoachieveamoreequitableglobaleconomicsystemforsustainableprosperity,drawingonthecorestrengthsofBrookings—authoritativeness,independence,depthofpracticalexpertise,andunparalleledconveningpower.Formore,visit/globalAcknowledgementsTheauthorswouldliketothankBrookingsVicePresidentoftheGlobalEconomyandDevelopmentProgramBrahimaS.Coulibaly,ChiefCommunicationsOfficerAndreaRisotto,AfricaGrowthInitiativeDirectorAloysiusOrdu,GlobalCommunicationsDirectorEstherLeeRosen,PhilKnight,andDeanofThunderbirdSchoolofGlobalManagementSanjeevKhagramfortheirsupport.TheauthorsgreatlyappreciateJunjieRen,NicoleNtungire,JeannineAjello,andIzzyTaylorfortheirfabulouscommunication,editorial,design,andsocialmediawork.Theauthorsaregratefultothepeerreviewers,includingAmarBhattacharya,fortheirinsightfulfeedbackandtoChristinaGolubski,JustineHufford,MollySugrue,andChrisMcKenna.TheauthorsgratefullyacknowledgethefinancialsupportoftheGlobalCenteronAdaptation(GCA)totheclimateworkofCheikhAntaDiopUniversity,includingforthispaper.VeryableresearchassistantshipfromLionaMuchenje,HollyStevens,SophieDessart,FamaGueye,andMbayangThiamisalsoacknowledged.Ofcourse,theusualdisclaimerapplies.Brookingsrecognizesthatthevalueitprovidesisinitscommitmenttoquality,independence,andimpact.Activitiessupportedbyitsdonorsreflectthiscommitment.TheBrookingsInstitutionisanonprofitorganizationdevotedtoindependentresearchandpolicysolutions.Itsmissionistoconducthigh-quality,independentresearchand,basedonthatresearch,toprovideinnovative,practicalrecommendationsforpolicymakersandthepublic.TheconclusionsandrecommendationsofanyBrookingspublicationaresolelythoseofitsauthor(s),anddonotreflecttheviewsoftheInstitution,itsmanagement,oritsotherscholars-1IntroductionTheaccelerationofclimatechangeisrecognizedtohavenegativeimpactsondevelopmentandsecurity.1Theimpactscanvarysignificantlydependingonthesector,location,andtimeperiodunderconsideration.2Climatechangehasmajorimpactonhumanhealth.Numerousstudiesexploretheimpactofhighertemperaturesoneconomicperformance,showingtheoverallnegativeimpactofhottemperatures.Theharmfuleffectsofclimatechangearealreadynoticeable,naturaldisastersaremorefrequentandcatastrophic,anddevelopingcountriesaremorevulnerable,accordingtotheJohannesburgDeclarationonSustainableDevelopment.Althoughclimatechangeisaworldwidephenomenon,poorpeopleandpoorcountriesaremoreseverelyaffectedbyitsnegativeeffects.3AccordingtotheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC),progressivechangeswillresultinhigheroveralltemperaturesandalteredwatercycle,leadingtoariseinsealevelandshiftingofclimaticzones.4Theseeffectsincludeloweragriculturalyields,exacerbatedweathereventslikedroughtsandfloods,andincreasedvulnerabilities.AccordingtotheWorldBank,morethan140millioneconomicallydisadvantagedpeoplefromSub-SaharanAfrica,SouthAsia,andLatinAmericawillbeforcedtomigrateinternallyduetoclimatechangeimpactsincludingwatershortages,decreasingagriculturalproductivity,andrisingsealevelsby2050.5In2019alone,climatechangecaused24.9millionweather-relateddisplacements.6Whensuchdisplacementshappeninfragilestates,theynotonlycreatenationalsecurityanddevelopmentchallenges,butalsothreateninternationalsecurity.Ifleftunchecked,climatechangehasthepotentialtoreverseyearsofsustainabledevelopmentgainsandfuelviolentconflicts.7Itiscriticallyimportanttobetterunderstandthenexusbetweenclimate,conflict,fragility,anddevelopmentsothatpolicymakersgloballycantakeappropriateactionincollaborationwithdeveloping,fragile,andconflict-affectedcountries.Thepurposeofthispaperistoemphasizetheappropriateandrenewedclimateactionsthaturgentlyneedtobetakenforaneffectiveandjustclimateadaptation.Wearguethatwhiletheconcernedgovernmentsareleftwiththeresponsibilityofembeddingclimatepolicyintotheirnationaldevelopmentpolicies,G20countrieshaveuniqueresponsibilitiesinprovidingtheneededfinancingandappropriatetechnologytransfertosupportadaptationpoliciesinfragileanddevelopingcountries,beingofthehighestlevelsofworldemissions.2Figure1.IncreaseinCO2emissionsintheworld,2010-2019Source:HärterichandPetersen,2021(basedonEUCommissiondata)Note:Morethan80percentofthenationswhoseCO2emissionsincreasedmostduringthelasttenyearsarelow-andlower-middle-incomeeconomies.3Impactsofclimatechangeondevelopingcountries’incomeThereisextensiveliteratureonthedetrimentalimpactsofclimatechangeoneconomicdevelopment.Inastudyofthelong-termimpactsofclimatechangeoneconomicgrowthanddevelopmentusingdatafrom174countriesobtainedbetween1960and2014,Kahnetal.foundthatforevery0.01degreeCelsiusincreaseintemperature,realincomegrowthdeclinesby0.0543percentagepoints.Thestudyestimatesthatby2100,climatechangewillreducerealworldGDPbymorethan7percentperyearifmitigationmeasuresarenotputinplace.8AseparatestudyconductedbyBurkeetal.usingadatasetof166countriesfoundthatalthoughrisingtemperatureslowerGDPoutputinbothdevelopedanddevelopingcountries,thenegativeeffectsaremorepronouncedindevelopingcountries.9Thestudyfoundthatthelossesinrealoutputvariedacrosscountriesdependingontheintensityoftheeffectsofclimatechange.Inseverecases,climatechangecausedamedianlossoftotalincomebetween23and27percent.10Ifmitigationeffortsarenotadopted,thestudyprojectsanannualgloballossofincomeof23percentby2100.11Manyauthorshavefoundthatincomelossesaremorepronouncedinpoorregions,especiallyinAfrica,whereahighproportionofthepopulationisdependentonnaturalresourcesandrain-fedagriculture.12Extremeweatherconditionssuchasdroughtsandfloodscauseslowereconomicgrowththroughlowercropyields,associatedhealthcosts,andunemploymentduetoforcedmigration.13Inastudyconductedin2019,SultanBenjamindiscoveredthatbetween2000and2009,climatechangeloweredaverageregionalyieldsinWestAfricaby10to20percentformilletand5to15percentforsorghum.14Thestudyestimatedthattheselossesinyieldsaccountedforalossof$2.33to4.02billionformilletand$0.73to2.17billionforsorghum.15TheannualreportonWeather,ClimateandCatastrophesreportedthatclimatechangerelatedweatherdisastersresultedinestimatedeconomiclossesof$232billionin2019,whichwasthehighestlosseverrecorded.16Thereportstatesthattheperiodbetween2010and2019markedthecostliestdecadeonrecord.Inthattime,atotalof$2.98trilliondollarsineconomiclossesoccurred,withtheAsiaPacificregionbearing44percentofthoselosses.17Otherstudieshavefoundthatapartfromdirectlossesofincomeandlivelihoods,climatedisastersalsocauseindirectlosses.Theseindirectlossesincludethelossofoutputresultingfromreducedproductivecapitalaswellastheredirectionofresourcestowardtherebuildingofdestroyedassets.Bothtypesoflossesnegativelyimpactacountry’sGDPinthelongterm.18DeConingandKrampehaveidentifiedthelinkagesamongclimatechange,conflict,development,andfragility.Heobservedthatclimatechangeincreasesthefrequencyandintensityofinter-groupconflict,whichinturnunderminestheadaptivecapacityandresilienceinaffectedcommunities.19Althoughthereisnoempiricalevidencethatshowsadirectcausalrelationshipbetweenclimatechangeandconflict,severalstudieshavedemonstratedthatthreatstolivelihoodscausedbyclimatechangetendtofuelnewconflictsorexacerbatepre-existingones.20Thelackofconclusivestudiesshowingthenexusbetweenclimatechangeandconflictismostlyduetothecomplexwayinwhichclimatechangeinteractswithotherdeterminantsofconflictsuchasresourcescarcity,poorgovernance,poverty,andhighpopulationgrowth.21Giventhedifficultyofisolatingtheeffectofclimatechangeonconflict,4researcherstendtodiscusstheclimate-conflictnexusinamulti-stageapproachthroughwhichtheyconsidertheeffectsofclimatechangeonmigrationandagriculturalproductionwhichinturndirectlyorindirectlyleadtoconflict.22However,astudyof16,359individualcasesofconflictthatoccurredinEastAfricabetween1990and2009foundthatincreasesintemperaturesby2standarddeviationsfromthenormalaverageraisedtheriskofconflictby29.6percent.23Somescholarshaveidentifiedclimate-inducedwatershortagesasacontributingfactortothe2012SyrianConflict.24Eventhoughlongstandingreligiousandpoliticalfactorsweretheprimarycauseofthecivilwar,theworseningenvironmentalconditions,especiallydroughts,triggeredinternalmigrationofruralfarmerstourbancenterslikeDamascusandAleppowhichexacerbatedtheextentandseverityoftheresultingcivilunrest.25Insomecases,researchersconcludedthatclimate-relateddisastersincreasedarmedconflictinareaswhereitwasalreadyoccurring.Inothercases,however,suchdisastersalsohadthepotentialtounitepeopleandencouragecooperation.26Manyresearchershaverecognizedclimaticfactorsasimportantcontributorstoresourcescarcityandcompetitionwhichhasescalatedconflictsinthepast.27Oneglobalmeta-analysisin2015foundthatdeviationsinclimatevariabilityofbothtemperatureandprecipitationincreasedtheriskofinterpersonalandinter-groupconflict.28Thestudyusedabroaddefinitionofconflictthatincludeddomesticviolence,assault,murder,rape,ethnicviolence,coups,civilwar,andotherformsofviolenceorunrest.29ArecentstudybyUNDPfoundthatclimaticchangesplaceadditionalburdensoninstitutionsinfragilecountriesandweakentheirabilitytorespondtointernalandexternalthreats.Thisinturncreatesaconduciveenvironmentforviolentextremistgroupstoillicitlycontrolkeynaturalresourcesandthrive.30Forexample,astudybyPeterSchwartzsteinfoundthattheIslamicStatetookadvantageofclimate-relatedwatershortagesbycuttingoffwatersupplytofarmingcommunitiesincentralandsouthernIraqandfloodinggovernmentbuildingstopunishpoliticalopponentsandboostrecruitmentofnewmembersintoterrorism.31Similarly,theriseofBokoHaramintheLakeChadregionhasbeenpartiallyfacilitatedbyclimate-relatedgrievancesincludingdroughts,desertification,andfoodinsecurity.32ThefragilitycreatedbyclimatechangemadeiteasierforBokoHaramtomobilizenewrecruitsandtoexploitpowervacuums.33InMali,frequentdroughtshaveledtotheintensificationofconflictovertheuseofscarceresourcesbetweensedentaryfarmersandnomadicherders,whichnotonlyincreasesthelikelihoodofviolentattacksinMalibutalsothreatensthestabilitysurroundingcountriesintheSahelregion.34Giventheclearlinkagesofclimate,development,fragility,andsecurity,itisthereforeessentialtoconsideranintegratedapproachthatcoordinatesglobalactors,toharmonizeclimateactionincollaborationwithdevelopingandfragilestates.China,theUnitedStates,theEuropeanUnion,Russia,India,andJapanhavebeenclassifiedasthetopemittersofGreenhousegases.35WhileAfricacontains80percentofthepeopleintheworldwhoaremostvulnerabletoclimatechange,advancedeconomiesarealsofeelingtheeffects—whetherthosearehurricanesandwildfiresintheU.S.,heatwavesintheU.K.,orthebeginningsofmigrationduetoclimatechangeacrossEurope.36Recentresearchshowsgrowingpublicconcernoverclimatechange.Forexample,intheUnitedStates,60percentofAmericansstatedthatclimatechangeisnegativelyimpactingtheirwelfareandtheyexpecttheirgovernmenttoscaleupitsclimateactioninitiativesbothdomesticallyandinternationally.37Despitedevelopingcountries’disproportionatevulnerabilitytotheeconomicandsecuritythreatsfromclimatechange,whilenothavingcontributedsubstantiallytohistoricalemissions,5manyhaveambitiousgoalstocombatclimatechange.Butmanydevelopingcountriesarefinanciallyunder-resourced.38ThesecountriesthereforeneedfinancialandtechnicalassistancefromcountriesliketheUnitedStatestohelpthemtoadapttoclimatechangeimpacts.Climatechangeisasharedglobalchallengethatrequiressustainedglobalaction—whichadvancedeconomies—incoordinationwithinternationalorganizationsliketheOECDandtheU.N.canplayaleadershiproleinsolving.Asdiscussedinearliersections,climatechangeresultsinconsiderablelossofproperty,reducedwateravailability,andloweredagriculturalproductivity,whichleadmorepeopleintopovertyandunderminetheabilityofthemostvulnerablecountriestoachievetheirdevelopmentgoals.39Withoutadequatesafetynets,assets,andcapabilitiestohandleeconomicshocksfromclimate-relateddisasters,marginalizedgroupsindevelopingcountriesoftenhavenowayofanticipatingandadaptingtoclimatechange.Developingcountries’lackofcapacitytohandlesuchimpactsisexacerbatedbyotherdeep-rootedissuessuchaspoorgovernanceofresources,weakinstitutions,andclimatechange’seffectofcompoundingpreexistingvulnerabilities,especiallyconflict.40Climatechangeisathreat-multiplierthatcompoundstheeffectofmanydeterminantsofviolentconflicts.41Asaresult,climatechangeisanationalsecuritythreattoadvanceeconomiesaswellasoverallglobalstability.6AclimatepolicyagendafordevelopingcountriesThevulnerabilitytoeconomicandclimaticshocksisincreasinginmanydevelopingnations,trappingtheminacycleofeconomicinstability,weakproductivitygrowth,andpersistentdisruption.42Moreintenseheatwaves,morepotenttropicalcyclones,extendeddroughts,andhighersealevelsareinevitable,withrisingglobaltemperaturesbringingwiththemevengreatereconomiclossandhumanmisery,arenoted,especiallyintheSouth.ThedamagetocountriesintheSouth(Africa,inparticular)isexpectedtofurtherincreaseasglobaltemperaturesrise(seethefigurebelow).Figure2.Mid-centuryGDPlossesbyregiongeneratedbyglobalwarming(percent).Source:UNCTAD,202143Toavoidfallingintotheclimate-inducedpovertytrap,whichmakesescapingfrompovertydifficult,theproblemofclimateadaptationinthepoorcountriesmustbeapproachedfromadevelopmentalangle.Thefollowingessentialcomponentsneedtobeconsideredfromthisperspective:replacingausteritywithpro-investmentpoliciesasthedefaultparadigmforcontrollingaggregatedemand.Thedevelopmentofalow-carbon,diversifiedeconomythatispoweredbygreentechnologiesandrenewableenergysources,whereeconomicactivitieswithinandacrosssectorsareintegratedthroughresource-efficientlinks,alsorequiressignificantpublicinvestment.Thereisanurgentneedfortheimplementationofgreenagriculturalpoliciesthatprotectsmallfarmers,providebackwardandforwardlinkagestogreenindustrialization,preservetheenvironment,andimprovefoodsecuritythroughhigheragriculturalproductionandstableincomes.7GlobalawarenessofclimatechangeeffectsAsevidenceofclimatechangeanditsimpactscontinuestomount,itisbecomingincreasinglyobviousthatmanyofthecausesofclimatechangeareanthropogenic—asaresultoflifestyles,consumptionpatterns,pollution,andtheunstainableexploitationofresources.Whileadaptationisheavilyreliantontheaccessibilityofinformationaboutclimatechange,voluntarymitigationismotivatedmostlybyperceivedexposuretohazardsandtheseverityofclimatechangeconsequencesorclimateunpredictability.ResearchbyHarshalandcoauthorsgathereddataonpeople'sawarenessofclimatechange,with733respondents.Only24(3.27percent)respondentshadheardoftheUNFCCCortheKyotoProtocolandonly33(4.50percent)hadheardofIPCC.Deforestationwascitedastheprimarycauseofclimatechangeby549respondents(74.90percent),followedbyautomobilepollution(446or60.85percent)andindustrialpollution(342or46.66percent).530respondentssaidthatclimatechangeisprimarilytoblameforwater-relatedissues.Accordingto400(54.57percent)respondents,morescientificresearchonallelementsofclimatechangewouldbethemostcrucial,followedbyincreasingclimatechangeawarenessandeducationtopreventfurtherclimatechange.44Governmentsareurgedtodevelopandimplementeducationandpublicawarenessprogramsonclimatechangeanditseffects,toensurethatthepublichasaccesstoinformation,andtoencouragepublicparticipationinfindingandimplementingsolutions.PolicyagendaonclimatechangeThereisalreadyawiderangeofmultilateralandbilateralenvironmentalassistanceprogramsthatprovidesfundingtoinitiativessuchastheDevelopmentAssistanceandEconomicSupportFund(contributedtobytheUnitedStates)whichaimstoprotectbiodiversity,promotetheadoptionofrenewableenergyandadaptation.45Otherorganizations,funds,andfinancingmechanismswhichdonorcountriescontributetoincludetheGlobalEnvironmentFacilityandtheGreenClimateFundwithintheUnitedNationsaswellasmultilateraldevelopmentbankssuchastheWorldBank,theInter-AmericanDevelopmentBank,andtheAfricanDevelopmentBankwhichareallkeyplayersinclimatefinanceprograms.46Animportantissuewithactiontakenbydonorcountriesisalackofcoordination,focus,andtargetingamongallofthesedifferentinstitutions.ItistimeforwealthycountriestocollaboratemoreeffectivelywithorganizationsliketheU.N.(especiallytheUNFCCCandIPCC)toleadandcoordinateclimateactionglobally.Inrecentyears,theUnitedStates’engagementandleadershiphasbeenmostnotablymissingindomesticandglobalclimateactionandhasbeeninconsistentinnatureparticularlyduetothehistoricalpartisandivideinwhichRepublicanshaveresistedtakinganyactionorgloballeadershiproleonclimatechange.47Asoneoftheworld’slargestemitters,itwillbeimportantforChinatotakeactionbothdomesticallyandininternationalcooperationandcoordinationefforts.Therefore,amoreconsistenteffortandengagementinleadershipandcollaborationonglobalclimatechangeactionwillbeimportantforadvancedeconomies.8GapsintheclimatechangepolicyagendaIntermsofglobalclimatediplomacy,actorssuchastheEuropeanUnionhasalreadysteppedupandmadeclimateactionthecenterofitsforeignpolicy.48TheEuropeanUnionevenclassifiedclimatechangeasanemergencyissue,committedtoprioritizefightingclimatechangeanditsimpactsthroughallEUexternalpolicyinstruments,whileparticularlyaimingtocooperatewithdevelopingcountriestohelpthemdeveloptailor-mademitigationandadaptationsolutions.49Figure3.Climatefinancebypublicsources(USDbillion)50Source:ClimatePolicyInitiative,20219Buildingacomprehensivepolicyagendafordevelopingcountries:theroleofinternationalactorsAdvancedeconomiesaswellasimportantemergingeconomieslikeChinaandIndiashouldcoordinatetheirsupportwithmoreintentionalitywithmultilateralplatformssuchastheUnitedNationsFrameworkonClimateChange(UNFCCC),theUnitedNationsEnvironmentProgramme(UNEP),theOrganizationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment(OECD),andotherinternationalorganizationsthatfocusonbuildingthecapacityforclimateresilienceandadaptationacrosstheglobe.51Subnational,international,non-governmental,andprivatesectoractorsincludingmultinationals,intergovernmentalorganizations,environmentalnon-governmentalorganizations,regionalgovernmentauthorities,governmentagencies,localgovernment,andmunicipalauthoritieswillbeimportantinthesecoordinationefforts.SomeU.S.agenciesthattheU.S.canincreasefundingtoincludetheU.S.AgencyforInternationalDevelopment(USAID),theEnvironmentalProtectionAgency(EPA),theNationalScienceFoundation(NSF),theDepartmentofAgriculture,andtheDepartmentofEnergywhichareallinvolvedinvariousinitiativestoaddressglobalclimatechange.52SomenoteworthyenvironmentalNGOsthatadvancedeconomiesshouldconsidersupportingincludetheAsiaPacificAdaptationNetwork(APAN),whichprovidesresourcesandtoolstoimprovetheadaptivecapacityofsocietiesinAsiaandthePacificregion.53ThisNGOalsohelpscoastalcommunitiesmitigatedamagesfromsea-levelrise.54Greenpeace,theNaturalResourcesDefenseCouncil(NRDC),andtheClimateGroupareallproactiveinenvironmentalprotection,andsupportfromtheU.S.governmentcanhelpthemscaleuptheirinitiatives.55SomeregionalgovernmentauthoritiesthattheUnitedStatescanpartnerwithincludetheAfricanDevelopmentBank,theAfricanUnion,theInter-AmericanDevelopmentBank,andtheAsianDevelopmentBank.56Alltheseinstitutionshavecommittedtoglobalclimateaction.Forexample,inpartnershipwiththeUNEP,theAsianDevelopmentbanklaunchedaClimateTechnologyNetworkandFinanceCentertoacceleratetheadoptionofcleantechnologyin16countriesintheAsia-Pacificregion.57InvestinearlywarningandweatheradvisorysystemsEarlywarningsystemsareseenaskeyelementstoavoidingorreducinglossesanddamagesfromclimatedisasterrisks.58Earlywarningsystemsareeffectiveinprotectinglives,assets,andlivelihoodsastheyhelppeopleanticipateclimatehazards,evacuateinadvance,ortakestepstomitigatethepotentialimpactofthedisaster.59Unfortunately,themajorityofmeteorologicaldepartmentsinmanydevelopingcountriesdonotmeetinternationalstandardsandlackthecapacityforeffectiveearlydetectionofclimatehazards.AccordingtotheWorldMeteorologicalOrganization(WMO),one-thirdoutofevery100,000peoplefrom73countriesintheirstudyarenotcoveredbymulti-hazardearlywarningsystems.60EventhoughprogresshasbeenmadethroughUSAIDprojectsandinitiativesbyClimateRiskandEarlyWarningSystems(CREWS),aFrenchinitiativethatsupportstheLeastDevelopedCountries(LDCs)andSmallIslandDevelopingStates(SIDS)inincreasingtheircapacitytodetectclimaterisksanddisseminate10warnings,therearestillhugefundinggapsthatpreventdevelopingcountriesfromsufficientlyimprovingtheirearlywarningsystems.61Donorcountriesincollaborationwithinternationalorganizationscanrespondbyincreasingfundingtoinitiativestobuildstate-of-the-artearly-warningandadvisorysystemsinthemostvulnerablecountriesespeciallySIDSandAfricancountriesthathavetheweakestearlywarningsystems.TheU.S.canhelpexpandthescopeandscaleofearly-warninginfrastructurebuildingprojectsthatarecurrentlybeingimplementedbytheUSAID’sOfficeofForeignDisasterAssistance(OFDA)byprovidingmoreconsistentfundingtosupporttrainingprogramsthatenhancethecapacityoflocalmeteorologicaldepartmentstoforecastclimaterisksandtodeliverreliableweatherandclimateinformation.62Usingcost-benefitanalysis,acasestudyoftheimpactofEarlyWarningSystemsinSamoafoundthatforevery$1investedinEarlyWarningSystemstoforecastcyclones,thereisareturnof$6inbenefits.63Thestudyalsoestimatedthat81.45percentoftheeconomiclossesanddamagesexperiencedduetoarecentcycloneinSamoacouldhavebeenpreventedifeffectiveEarlyWarningSystemshadbeenimplementedbeforethecyclone.64Withsuchpotentialbenefitsinpreventinglosses,investmentinearlywarningsystemsshouldbeprioritized.TheWMOrecommendsinvestingintheGlobalClimateObservingSystemwhichisinstrumentalinworkingwithregionalandlocalactorsindisseminatingearlywarnings.65Promoteclimate-smartagricultureAgricultureisbothasourceofclimatechangeandapotentialsolutionwhenitisdonesustainably.DonorcountriesshouldworkbilaterallyaswellaswithregionalorganizationssuchastheAfricanDeve