投资组合理论成功应用的5个关键(英文)课件

投资组合理论成功应用的5个关键(英文)课件OverviewofPortfolioManagementTheFiveKeys1. CorporateBuy-in2. RiskManagement3. RevenueStream4. EfficiencyofInvestment5. ProfitSummaryContentsOverviewofPortfolioManagemeOverviewof

PortfolioManagementOverviewof

PortfolioManagemOverviewBASICCRITICALPOINTSTheR&Dportfolioisthefutureofthecompany.Tomanageitistodistributescarceresourcesacrossasetofprojectsaswellasacrossasetofprojectstrategies.Prioritiesmustbeestablishedanddifficultchoicesmustbemade.OverviewBASICCRITICALPOINTSMANAGEMENTREQUIRMENTSBecauseof‘surprises’,goodmanagementmeansflexibility.Ofcriticalimportanceisthatseniormanagementunderstandtheprinciples,theobjectives,andtheknowledgetomakecorrectchoices.OverviewMANAGEMENTREQUIRMENTSOverviewTHEGOALTheultimateaimistocreatevalueandtodoitovertime.Ifapharmaceuticaldoesitwell,thenitwillbesuccessful.Theoptimalportfolioisonewhich(1)maximisesexpectedvaluetodayandintothefuture,(2)addressesrisk(attrition),and(3)optimallydistributesresources.OverviewTHEGOALOverviewTheFiveEssentialKeysTheFiveEssentialKeysTheFiveEssentialKeysSELECTIONCRITERIAToqualifyasakey,eachfactorhadtomeetthefollowingcriteria:IthadtorelatetoallR&Dprojects,notjustasubset.Corporatemanagementcouldelect‘nottopursue’thefactor.Ifthecompanydidn’tdoit(byaccidentorbydesign),itwouldnotbesuccessful?TheFiveEssentialKeysSELECTIKey#1-CorporateBuy-inThismeansthatbothmanagementatalllevelsandprojectteammembersunderstandandarewillingtofollowtheprinciplesofPortfolioManagement.Thisiskeyfortwosimplereasons...Key#1-CorporateBuy-inThisKey#1-CorporateBuy-inManagement-

TheDecisionMakingProcessisthe1stStepinAchievingGoalsandObjectives.

Makingcorrectportfoliochoices,projectstrategies,resourceallocations,andtimingsaretheresponsibilityofCorporateManagement.Decisionmakersmustunderstandthenatureofdecisionmakingunderuncertaintyaswellasthequantitativemeasuresthatleadtosuccess.Key#1-CorporateBuy-inManagKey#1-CorporateBuy-inProjectTeams-

TheBestDecisionRequirestheBestInformationAvailableInformationisdatathatisputinaformthatallowsgoalsandobjectivestobepursued.Providingcorrectprojectdataistheresponsibilityofprojectteammembersandnooneelse.Theseindividualsrepresentexpertknowledgewhichisthebestinformationavailabletodecisionmakers.

Key#1-CorporateBuy-inProjeKey#1-CorporateBuy-inWithoutcorporatebuy-in,PortfolioManagementdoesnotexist.Asanalternative,onemayaskoneself,“DoIfeellucky?!”‘DirtyHarry’Key#1-CorporateBuy-inWithoKey#2-RiskManagementTheneedtomanageriskappearsobvious,but(1)itisnotalwaysdoneand(2)whenitisdone,itisnotalwaysdonecorrectly.Wewillconsider:1. Whathappenswhen‘risk’isnotassessedorused.2. Whysomedonotwanttoassessoruse‘risk’.3. Whatare‘right’and‘wrong’waysinwhichtouseit.Key#2-RiskManagementTheneKey#2-RiskManagement1. Whathappenswhen‘risk’isnotassessedorused.ValueBlockbuster

PotentialProbabilityofSuccessValueWorth

NothingKey#2-RiskManagement1. WhaKey#2-RiskManagementThetypicalexplanationasto‘why’riskisnotassessedis,“It’stooinaccuratetobeofanyuse.”2. Whysomedonotwanttoassessoruse‘risk’.DEADLYCLEANDEADLYCLEAN‘Risk’isactually‘uncertainty’and‘uncertainty’isactually‘confidence’.Theword‘inaccurate’isnotevenrelevantasitisactuallyadistributionofoutcomesforwhichanexperthassome,alot,ornoconfidence.Key#2-RiskManagementThetyKey#2-RiskManagementWRONGTwoimportantfactorsfordeterminingtheworthofadrugarethequalityofthescienceandthecommercialvalue.Bothareofequalweightasbotharecriticalforsuccess.ARPharma(averylargepharmaceutical)hasdecidedtousea0-10ratingforeachfactorthenaddthescores.Projectswillbeprioritizedbasedontheirindexoutofapossible20.3. Whatare‘right’and‘wrong’waysinwhichtouserisk?ProjectA-Scienceisavg.Scoreis5.

Commisavg.Scoreis5.

Index10ProjectB-Scienceisbad.Scoreis0.

Commisgood.Scoreis10.

Index10Key#2-RiskManagementWRONG3Key#2-RiskManagementWhatare‘right’and‘wrong’waysinwhichtouserisk?SAFETYEFFICACY50%50%50%50%$1b$250mProjectASAFETYEFFICACY1%99%1%9%$10b$1mProjectBRIGHTKey#2-RiskManagementWhataKey#3-RevenueStreamBlockbustersarenice,buttheyarefarandinbetween. Operatingcapitalisrequiredtosustainanybusinessintothefuture.Smallprojectsarethe‘bread&butter’ofapharmaceutical. Ifstrictadherenceispaidtoselectingthehighestvaluedopportunity,thenapharmaceuticalhastoaskitselfifitwillstillbearoundtoreapthosebenefitsinthefuture.Key#3-RevenueStreamBlockbuKey#4-EfficiencyofInvestmentEfficiencyissimplyarateofreturn.Thatis,it’sanindex.Ifyouhaveonedollartoinvestandyouaretryingtomaximizeyourreturn,thenputitintheprojectwiththegreatestROI.Ifyoudon’tdoit,yourstockholderswillandyou’llsoonfindyourselfoutofbusiness.ButROIisNOTvalue.WhatdoesitmeantothemanagerofanR&DPortfolio?Key#4-EfficiencyofInvestmKey#4-EfficiencyofInvestmentAnefficiencyindexsuchasROIorPRODUCTIVITY,canusedtopackasmuchvalueintoalimitedspaceasispossible.Whenselectingprojectstopursuefromalargenumber,orderthembyanefficiencymeasure,thenstopwhenyourunoutofmoney.You’llcreateyourhighestvaluedportfolio.(Onecaveatisthatyoucanimprovetotalvalueabitbyusingaspecialmathematicalmethodcalledintegerprogramming.)Key#4-EfficiencyofInvestmKey#4-EfficiencyofInvestmentOtherscarceresourcessuchaschemists,drugsubstance,manufacturingcapacity,andtimearesubjecttothesameprinciplesofdistribution.Putthemintothegreatestefficiencyprojectsfirst!(Iftheproblemistoocomplex,rememberthatintegerprogrammingwasdevelopedforjustsuchproblems.)Key#4-EfficiencyofInvestmKey#5-ProfitAnybusinessinanyuniversemustmakeaprofit,other-wisevalueisdestroyed.ValuedestructionfallsintothesameclassasAvacuum(whichnatureabhors),Blackholes(fromwhichnothingescapes)andThesecondlawofthermodynamics(aone-waystreetfromwhichonedoesnotreturn).Conclusion:Portfoliomanagementmustclearlycreatevalue.Allelseisnice,butnotnecessary.Key#5-ProfitAnybusinessinSummarySummaryCorporateBuy-inRiskManagementProductivityProjectCProjectIProjectBProjectFProjectHProjectGProjectEProjectDProjectJProjectALikelihoodofR&DSuccessNetPresentValueYearsRiskAdjustedNetSalesProjectIProjectBProjectFProjectGProjectEProjectJProjectARiskAdjustedCostsRiskAdjustedNPVValue

OptimisationBestUseofResources?OptimalGrowth?OptimalProjectPlan?OptimalRegionalPortfolio?OptimalTherapeuticportfolio?CorporateBuy-inRiskManagemenProbability(%)GoldStdValue(£)ProjectCProjectIProjectBProjectFProjectHProjectGProjectEProjectDProjectJProjectALikelihoodofR&DSuccessNetPresentValueRiskDistributionRiskManagementProbability(%)GoldStdValue(ProjectIYearsRiskAdjustedNetSalesControlCashFlowRevenueStreamandEfficiencyProjIProjBProjFProjGProjEProjJProjARiskAdjustedCostsRiskAdjustedNPVUseEfficiencyMeasuresProjectIYearsRiskAdjustedNeProjectCProjectIProjectBProjectFProjectHProjectGProjectEProjectDProjectJProjectALikelihoodofR&DSuccessNetPresentValueRisk-AdjustedNPVProfitSAFETYEFFICACYPRESENTATIONValuein£’s%ofOccurrenceCommercialEnvironmentProjectCProjectIProjectBProInSummaryThePortfoliorepresentsthefutureofacompany.Successisdeterminedbyvaluecreationtodayandinthefuture.Inthefaceofuncertainty,theuseof‘expected(risk-adjusted)values’tipstheoddsofwinninginfavorofdecisionmakers.The‘best’portfolioisthatwhichefficientlydistributesresourcesandmaximizesproductivity.InSummaryThePortfoliorepres投资组合理论成功应用的5个关键(英文)课件OverviewofPortfolioManagementTheFiveKeys1. CorporateBuy-in2. RiskManagement3. RevenueStream4. EfficiencyofInvestment5. ProfitSummaryContentsOverviewofPortfolioManagemeOverviewof

PortfolioManagementOverviewof

PortfolioManagemOverviewBASICCRITICALPOINTSTheR&Dportfolioisthefutureofthecompany.Tomanageitistodistributescarceresourcesacrossasetofprojectsaswellasacrossasetofprojectstrategies.Prioritiesmustbeestablishedanddifficultchoicesmustbemade.OverviewBASICCRITICALPOINTSMANAGEMENTREQUIRMENTSBecauseof‘surprises’,goodmanagementmeansflexibility.Ofcriticalimportanceisthatseniormanagementunderstandtheprinciples,theobjectives,andtheknowledgetomakecorrectchoices.OverviewMANAGEMENTREQUIRMENTSOverviewTHEGOALTheultimateaimistocreatevalueandtodoitovertime.Ifapharmaceuticaldoesitwell,thenitwillbesuccessful.Theoptimalportfolioisonewhich(1)maximisesexpectedvaluetodayandintothefuture,(2)addressesrisk(attrition),and(3)optimallydistributesresources.OverviewTHEGOALOverviewTheFiveEssentialKeysTheFiveEssentialKeysTheFiveEssentialKeysSELECTIONCRITERIAToqualifyasakey,eachfactorhadtomeetthefollowingcriteria:IthadtorelatetoallR&Dprojects,notjustasubset.Corporatemanagementcouldelect‘nottopursue’thefactor.Ifthecompanydidn’tdoit(byaccidentorbydesign),itwouldnotbesuccessful?TheFiveEssentialKeysSELECTIKey#1-CorporateBuy-inThismeansthatbothmanagementatalllevelsandprojectteammembersunderstandandarewillingtofollowtheprinciplesofPortfolioManagement.Thisiskeyfortwosimplereasons...Key#1-CorporateBuy-inThisKey#1-CorporateBuy-inManagement-

TheDecisionMakingProcessisthe1stStepinAchievingGoalsandObjectives.

Makingcorrectportfoliochoices,projectstrategies,resourceallocations,andtimingsaretheresponsibilityofCorporateManagement.Decisionmakersmustunderstandthenatureofdecisionmakingunderuncertaintyaswellasthequantitativemeasuresthatleadtosuccess.Key#1-CorporateBuy-inManagKey#1-CorporateBuy-inProjectTeams-

TheBestDecisionRequirestheBestInformationAvailableInformationisdatathatisputinaformthatallowsgoalsandobjectivestobepursued.Providingcorrectprojectdataistheresponsibilityofprojectteammembersandnooneelse.Theseindividualsrepresentexpertknowledgewhichisthebestinformationavailabletodecisionmakers.

Key#1-CorporateBuy-inProjeKey#1-CorporateBuy-inWithoutcorporatebuy-in,PortfolioManagementdoesnotexist.Asanalternative,onemayaskoneself,“DoIfeellucky?!”‘DirtyHarry’Key#1-CorporateBuy-inWithoKey#2-RiskManagementTheneedtomanageriskappearsobvious,but(1)itisnotalwaysdoneand(2)whenitisdone,itisnotalwaysdonecorrectly.Wewillconsider:1. Whathappenswhen‘risk’isnotassessedorused.2. Whysomedonotwanttoassessoruse‘risk’.3. Whatare‘right’and‘wrong’waysinwhichtouseit.Key#2-RiskManagementTheneKey#2-RiskManagement1. Whathappenswhen‘risk’isnotassessedorused.ValueBlockbuster

PotentialProbabilityofSuccessValueWorth

NothingKey#2-RiskManagement1. WhaKey#2-RiskManagementThetypicalexplanationasto‘why’riskisnotassessedis,“It’stooinaccuratetobeofanyuse.”2. Whysomedonotwanttoassessoruse‘risk’.DEADLYCLEANDEADLYCLEAN‘Risk’isactually‘uncertainty’and‘uncertainty’isactually‘confidence’.Theword‘inaccurate’isnotevenrelevantasitisactuallyadistributionofoutcomesforwhichanexperthassome,alot,ornoconfidence.Key#2-RiskManagementThetyKey#2-RiskManagementWRONGTwoimportantfactorsfordeterminingtheworthofadrugarethequalityofthescienceandthecommercialvalue.Bothareofequalweightasbotharecriticalforsuccess.ARPharma(averylargepharmaceutical)hasdecidedtousea0-10ratingforeachfactorthenaddthescores.Projectswillbeprioritizedbasedontheirindexoutofapossible20.3. Whatare‘right’and‘wrong’waysinwhichtouserisk?ProjectA-Scienceisavg.Scoreis5.

Commisavg.Scoreis5.

Index10ProjectB-Scienceisbad.Scoreis0.

Commisgood.Scoreis10.

Index10Key#2-RiskManagementWRONG3Key#2-RiskManagementWhatare‘right’and‘wrong’waysinwhichtouserisk?SAFETYEFFICACY50%50%50%50%$1b$250mProjectASAFETYEFFICACY1%99%1%9%$10b$1mProjectBRIGHTKey#2-RiskManagementWhataKey#3-RevenueStreamBlockbustersarenice,buttheyarefarandinbetween. Operatingcapitalisrequiredtosustainanybusinessintothefuture.Smallprojectsarethe‘bread&butter’ofapharmaceutical. Ifstrictadherenceispaidtoselectingthehighestvaluedopportunity,thenapharmaceuticalhastoaskitselfifitwillstillbearoundtoreapthosebenefitsinthefuture.Key#3-RevenueStreamBlockbuKey#4-EfficiencyofInvestmentEfficiencyissimplyarateofreturn.Thatis,it’sanindex.Ifyouhaveonedollartoinvestandyouaretryingtomaximizeyourreturn,thenputitintheprojectwiththegreatestROI.Ifyoudon’tdoit,yourstockholderswillandyou’llsoonfindyourselfoutofbusiness.ButROIisNOTvalue.WhatdoesitmeantothemanagerofanR&DPortfolio?Key#4-EfficiencyofInvestmKey#4-EfficiencyofInvestmentAnefficiencyindexsuchasROIorPRODUCTIVITY,canusedtopackasmuchvalueintoalimitedspaceasispossible.Whenselectingprojectstopursuefromalargenumber,orderthembyanefficiencymeasure,thenstopwhenyourunoutofmoney.You’llcreateyourhighestvaluedportfolio.(Onecaveatisthatyoucanimprovetotalvalueabitbyusingaspecialmathematicalmethodcalledintegerprogramming.)Key#4-EfficiencyofInvestmKey#4-EfficiencyofInvestmentOtherscarceresourcessuchaschemists,drugsubstance,manufacturingcapacity,andtimearesubjecttothesameprinciplesofdistribution.Putthemintothegreatestefficiencyprojectsfirst!(Iftheproblemistoocomplex,rememberthatintegerprogrammingwasdevelopedforjustsuchproblems.)Key#4-EfficiencyofInvestmKey#5-ProfitAnybusinessinanyuniversemustmakeaprofit,other-wisevalueisdestroyed.ValuedestructionfallsintothesameclassasAvacuum(whichnatureabhors),Blackholes(fromwhichnothingescapes)andThesecondlawofthermodynamics(aone-waystreetfromwhichonedoesnotreturn).Conclusion:Portfoliomanagementmustclea